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NASA NTRS1961

A Feasible Approach for an Early Manned Lunar Landing. Part II: Detailed Report of Ad Hoc Task Group

This report, in two parts, presents a program development plan for attempting a first manned lunar landing in 1967. The two parts consist of a Summary Report and a Detailed Report representing the coordinated output of the Ad Hoc Task Group assigned to the study. The study was started in response to the request for such a study by the Associate Administrator in his memorandum of May 2, 1961 establishing the Ad Hoc Task Group. The purpose of the study was to take a first cut at the tasks associated with the design, development and construction of the equipment and facilities as well as the development of the crews, and to show the time phasing 6f these tasks. Included are the space sciences, life science and advanced technology tasks whose data and results are needed for designing and developing the systems required in carrying out the mission. The plan presented in the two reports does not presume to be a firm plan. Its basic purpose is, by choosing one feasible method, to size up the scope, schedule and cost of the job, discover the main problems, pacing items and major decisions and provide a threshold from which a firm and detailed project development plan can be jointly formulated by the various elements of NASA.

Fleming, William A.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Using Open Standards and NASA Open Source Simulation Tools to Model Artemis Base Camp Mission Timelines

The United States’ National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has announced that the Artemis Program will return humans to the Moon, establishing a persistent presence with the Artemis Base Camp (ABC), and extend human exploration to Mars. The NASA Exploration Systems Simulations (NExSyS) team at NASA’s Johnson Space Center is using internationally developed simulation interoperability standards and NASA open source simulation tools to support Artemis concept, analysis, designs, development, training, and ultimately operations. The NExSyS team has been tasked to support early ABC architecture and mission analysis using mission time lines developed by the crew operations mission planning team. The NExSyS team is developing a distributed simulation framework with initial Artemis element implementations to model the ABC mission timelines using the international simulation interoperability standard High Level Architecture (HLA), the Simulation Interoperability Standards Organization’s Space Reference Federation Object Model (SpaceFOM), the NASA open source Trick Simulation Environment, and another NASA open source interface package called TrickHLA. The ABC architecture is composed of a number of key surface elements and resources. Some examples of modeled elements (also known as entities) are landers, habitats, rovers, logistics carriers, and astronauts. Some examples of modeled transferable and consumable resources are power, water, oxygen, nitrogen, scientific samples, and food. These entities and resources are modeled in a collection of individual simulations called Federates. A coordinated collection of interoperable federates is called a Federation and when these federates are tied together in a coordinated simulation run, it is referred to as a Federation Execution. The federates communicate through HLA using data exchange formats defined by a collection of machine readable files called Federation Object Models (FOMs). These FOM files are based on extensions to the SpaceFOM. This enables the instantiation and sharing of objects and interactions between federates in the federation. These provide for entity and resource tracking, object transfer, and data collection. Federate interactions are used to trigger events and notify federates of entity or resource transfers. For the initial implementation, the constituent federates are Trick-based simulations that use TrickHLA to provide the required HLA-base interoperability. These Trick-based simulations provide the required modeling for the individual Artemis elements along with the associated element resources. These federates provide a means to explore traverses between surface elements and exploration sites as scheduled in a mission timeline and explore the affects traverse times have on the overall mission timeline. The mission time lines are modeled using a Trick input file event handling capabilities. Each timeline operation is handled as individual simulation events, and triggered based on previous event status, time of operation, and simulated task completions. In addition, the ABC Federation can be used to perform Monte Carlo analysis. The Monte Carlo tool can vary the inputs, timings, and malfunctions to show how various contingencies in the mission can affect the mission timeline.

Keaton Craig Dodd↗

NASA NTRS2001

Identifying Young, Nearby Stars

Young stars have certain characteristics, e.g., high atmospheric abundance of lithium and chromospheric activity, fast rotation, distinctive space motion and strong X-ray flux compared to that of older main sequence stars. We have selected a list of candidate young (<100Myr) and nearby (<60pc) stars based on their space motion and/or strong X-ray flux. To determine space motion of a star, one needs to know its coordinates (RA, DEC), proper motion, distance, and radial velocity. The Hipparcos and Tycho catalogues provide all this information except radial velocities. We anticipate eventually searching approx. 1000 nearby stars for signs of extreme youth. Future studies of the young stars so identified will help clarify the formation of planetary systems for times between 10 and 100 million years. Certainly, the final output of this study will be a very useful resource, especially for adaptive optics and space based searches for Jupiter-mass planets and dusty proto-planetary disks. We have begun spectroscopic observations in January, 2001 with the 2.3 m telescope at Siding Spring Observatory (SSO) in New South Wales, Australia. These spectra will be used to determine radial velocities and other youth indicators such as Li 6708A absorption strength and Hydrogen Balmer line intensity. Additional observations of southern hemisphere stars from SSO are scheduled in April and northern hemisphere observations will take place in May and July at the Lick Observatory of the University of California. AT SSO, to date, we have observed about 100 stars with a high resolution spectrometer (echelle) and about 50 stars with a medium spectral resolution spectrometer (the "DBS"). About 20% of these stars turn out to be young stars. Among these, two especially noteworthy stars appear to be the closest T-Tauri stars ever identified. Interestingly, these stars share the same space motions as that of a very famous star with a dusty circumstellar disk--beta Pictoris. This new finding better constrains the age of beta Pictoris to be approx. 10 Myr.

Webb, Rich↗

NASA NTRS1987

An approach to multivariable control of manipulators

The paper presents simple schemes for multivariable control of multiple-joint robot manipulators in joint and Cartesian coordinates. The joint control scheme consists of two independent multivariable feedforward and feedback controllers. The feedforward controller is the minimal inverse of the linearized model of robot dynamics and contains only proportional-double-derivative (PD2) terms - implying feedforward from the desired position, velocity and acceleration. This controller ensures that the manipulator joint angles track any reference trajectories. The feedback controller is of proportional-integral-derivative (PID) type and is designed to achieve pole placement. This controller reduces any initial tracking error to zero as desired and also ensures that robust steady-state tracking of step-plus-exponential trajectories is achieved by the joint angles. Simple and explicit expressions of computation of the feedforward and feedback gains are obtained based on the linearized model of robot dynamics. This leads to computationally efficient schemes for either on-line gain computation or off-line gain scheduling to account for variations in the linearized robot model due to changes in the operating point. The joint control scheme is extended to direct control of the end-effector motion in Cartesian space. Simulation results are given for illustration.

Seraji, H.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Hydropower Role in a Power Grid with a High Proportion of Variable Renewables

The importance of hydropower increases as the power grid evolves with the higher variable renewable contribution. As conventional thermal power plants are retired, the importance of hydropower contribution increases to balance the variability of solar and wind generation. However, reservoir water resources are constrained by multiple constraints, and variability of water inflow to the reservoirs creates limitations to dam water releases for power grid needs. Coordination of multiple tools, including water resources modeling, ecological modeling, and technical and economic power grid modeling, informs dam water releases. Better representation of ecological constraints and other water use details in the suit of power grid models are required to identify the hydropower flexibility to provide multiple power grid services. Impacts of water planning and hydropower operation changes to a power grid are better understood by production cost model simulations with technical and economic data, including unserved energy, reserve failures, transmission congestion to serve load, and local marginal price increases. Similarly, PCM simulation of current and future projected power grid information, including LMP, and carbon emission rates, informs short-term water release plans and long-term investments for power plant upgrades for technical and ecological needs. Hydropower operations of several case studies are simulated to understand operation patterns, revenue, water release decisions in multiple time scales (month, day, minutes), hydropower contracts scheduling, and water variability impacts.

environmental↗

DOE OSTI2025

Powernet in Farms Project

Coordinating behind-the-meter (BTM) distributed energy resources (DERs) is critical to ensuring efficiency and reliability for consumers facing an increasingly variable grid supply. Outside of very controlled environments, however, such coordination of heterogeneous resources at scale has remained a challenge due to harsh field conditions, the lack of adequate communication infrastructure, and the difficulty of modeling the system. The intent of this research was to refine the Powernet system deployed in a California dairy farm to achieve the following objectives: a) validate the results of the previous deployment and b) validate new hypothesis about system performance based on the simulation of the new system. The new system design would reduce the overall system cost, and achieve a payback period of less than 3 years, demonstrating the feasibility of such system and its relevance for a segment not well known for technology advancements in power systems. The new proposed system was significantly cheaper than the original design, which would enable the solution to be cost effective and likely economically viable. However, due to significant delays in project start date which affected funding availability, overlap with prior scheduled mandatory military leave from key members of the project team, and customer drop-out, due to the significant delays, which could not be replaced in time, caused the project to be ended prior to completion.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS2014

Flight Avionics Hardware Roadmap

The Avionics Technology Roadmap takes an 80% approach to technology investment in spacecraft avionics. It delineates a suite of technologies covering foundational, component, and subsystem-levels, which directly support 80% of future NASA space mission needs. The roadmap eschews high cost, limited utility technologies in favor of lower cost, and broadly applicable technologies with high return on investment. The roadmap is also phased to support future NASA mission needs and desires, with a view towards creating an optimized investment portfolio that matures specific, high impact technologies on a schedule that matches optimum insertion points of these technologies into NASA missions. The roadmap looks out over 15+ years and covers some 114 technologies, 58 of which are targeted for TRL6 within 5 years, with 23 additional technologies to be at TRL6 by 2020. Of that number, only a few are recommended for near term investment: 1. Rad Hard High Performance Computing 2. Extreme temperature capable electronics and packaging 3. RFID/SAW-based spacecraft sensors and instruments 4. Lightweight, low power 2D displays suitable for crewed missions 5. Radiation tolerant Graphics Processing Unit to drive crew displays 6. Distributed/reconfigurable, extreme temperature and radiation tolerant, spacecraft sensor controller and sensor modules 7. Spacecraft to spacecraft, long link data communication protocols 8. High performance and extreme temperature capable C&DH subsystem In addition, the roadmap team recommends several other activities that it believes are necessary to advance avionics technology across NASA: center dot Engage the OCT roadmap teams to coordinate avionics technology advances and infusion into these roadmaps and their mission set center dot Charter a team to develop a set of use cases for future avionics capabilities in order to decouple this roadmap from specific missions center dot Partner with the Software Steering Committee to coordinate computing hardware and software technology roadmaps and investment recommendations center dot Continue monitoring foundational technologies upon which future avionics technologies will be dependent, e.g., RHBD and COTS semiconductor technologies

Some, Raphael↗

NASA NTRS2021

Assessing Relay Communications for Mars Sample Return Surface Mission Concepts

The Mars Sample Return (MSR) Campaign is a 3-mission campaign concept supported by NASA and ESA to return samples from the Mars surface. MSR will, for the firsttime ever, present a need to communicate with multiple surfaceassets that are co-located on Mars in a coordinated effort toaccomplish the unified objective of fetching, transporting, andreturning samples from Mars. Currently, Mars surface assetsrelay data to and from Earth using a number of orbiters inwhat’s known as the Mars Relay Network (MRN). This networkis characterized by a small number of surface assets distributedacross the Martian globe and a larger number of orbiters toprovide relay services. As of June 2020, there are two surfaceassets for which five orbiters are providing relay. During theMSR Campaign, there will be two rovers and a lander that allwill require relay communication from a small number of Marsorbiters to meet the aggressive MSR timeline. The inversion ofthe current MRN paradigm, a system of many surface assetsrequiring relay and few orbiters to provide relay, necessitatesthe unique challenge of optimally allocating relay passes tomaximize the operational capability of all assets. The allocationmust consider a large number of trade variables includingMars asset operational requirements and Earth ground systemconstraints, including staffing schedules, operations planningacross time zones, and more. To address these telecommunicationchallenges, the Mars Asset Relay Mission Link AllocationDesign Environment (MARMLADE) tool was developed. Itis a MATLAB-based tool to assign orbiter passes or Direct-From-Earth (DFE) links to each of the three surface assets andquantify the operational efficiency of each surface asset.MARMLADE uses a data set of simulated Mars relay orbitergeometry and telecommunication capabilities provided by JPL’sTelecom Orbit Analysis and Simulation Tool (TOAST) softwareto compute which asset should get each pass based on a seriesof heuristics and predictions of all assets’ states. WithinMARMLADE, the user can provide inputs including the optionfor time-based pass splitting, fixed FWD data rate capabilities,DFE communication capabilities, and link parameters allowingfor the assessment of complex operations and hardware tradesusing surface mission operational efficiency as a primary figureof merit. As the MSR mission concepts continue to mature,MARMLADE is being used to assess ability of all MSR elementsto meet the surface mission timeline requirements and to provide relay link allocations to each of the MSR surface assets.

Lee, Charles↗

NASA NTRS2010

Project Management Using Modern Guidance, Navigation and Control Theory

The idea of control theory and its application to project management is not new, however literature on the topic and real-world applications is not as readily available and comprehensive in how all the principals of Guidance, Navigation and Control (GN&C) apply. This paper will address how the fundamental principals of modern GN&C Theory have been applied to NASA's Constellation Space Suit project and the results in the ability to manage the project within cost, schedule and budget. A s with physical systems, projects can be modeled and managed with the same guiding principles of GN&C as if it were a complex vehicle, system or software with time-varying processes, at times non-linear responses, multiple data inputs of varying accuracy and a range of operating points. With such systems the classic approach could be applied to small and well-defined projects; however with larger, multi-year projects involving multiple organizational structures, external influences and a multitude of diverse resources, then modern control theory is required to model and control the project. The fundamental principals of G N&C stated that a system is comprised of these basic core concepts: State, Behavior, Control system, Navigation system, Guidance and Planning Logic, Feedback systems. The state of a system is a definition of the aspects of the dynamics of the system that can change, such as position, velocity, acceleration, coordinate-based attitude, temperature, etc. The behavior of the system is more of what changes are possible rather than what can change, which is captured in the state of the system. The behavior of a system is captured in the system modeling and if properly done, will aid in accurate system performance prediction in the future. The Control system understands the state and behavior of the system and feedback systems to adjust the control inputs into the system. The Navigation system takes the multiple data inputs and based upon a priori knowledge of the input, will develop a statistical-based weighting of the input to determine where the system currently is located. Guidance and Planning logic of the system with the understanding of where it is (provided by the navigation system) will in turn determine where it needs to be and how to get there. Lastly, the system Feedback system is the right arm of the control system to allow it to affect change in the overall system and therefore it is critical to not only correctly identify the system feedback inputs but also the system response to the feedback inputs. And with any systems project it is critical that the objective of the system be clearly defined for not only planning but to be used to measure performance and to aid in the guidance of the system or project.

Hill, Terry↗

NASA NTRS1992

Coordinated Radio, Electron, and Waves Experiment (CREWE) for the NASA Comet Rendezvous and Asteroid Flyby (CRAF) instrument

The Coordinated Radio, Electron, and Waves Experiment (CREWE) was designed to determine density, bulk velocity and temperature of the electrons for the NASA Comet Rendezvous and Asteroid Flyby Spacecraft, to define the MHD-SW IMF flow configuration; to clarify the role of impact ionization processes, to comment on the importance of anomalous ionization phenomena (via wave particle processes), to quantify the importance of wave turbulence in the cometary interaction, to establish the importance of photoionization via the presence of characteristic lines in a structured energy spectrum, to infer the presence and grain size of significant ambient dust column density, to search for the theoretically suggested 'impenetrable' contact surface, and to quantify the flow of heat (in the likelihood that no surface exists) that will penetrate very deep into the atmosphere supplying a good deal of heat via impact and charge exchange ionization. This final report provides an instrument description, instrument test plans, list of deliverables/schedule, flight and support equipment and software schedule, CREWE accommodation issues, resource requirements, status of major contracts, an explanation of the non-NASA funded efforts, status of EIP and IM plan, descope options, and Brinton questions.

Scudder, Jack D.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Agent-Based Coordination Scheme for PV Integration (ABC4PV)

Renewables and especially photovoltaics (PV) have benefitted significantly from a host of incentives and policies targeted toward enhanced integration and adoption of specific energy technologies. However, with the push to move forward into a subsidy-free market framework, behind-the-meter residential PV applications have generally struggled to retain their value (unlike utility scale and commercial projects) [1]. This project focused on developing control-theoretic solutions aimed at improving the integration and interaction of behind-the-meter residential PV with other distribution system assets (controllable and non-controllable) to enhance the integrated value of residential PV. To this end, a suite of decentralized control methodologies have been developed to enable effective coordination and control of behind-the-meter residential load customers’ PV, battery storage systems (BSS), controllable loads and other similar assets within a distribution feeder. This interaction aims at procuring energy savings and, thus, energy bill savings. The main source of savings is drawn from reducing the effect of demand charge pricing and is realized at the feeder level, assuming community level interaction and management among the aforementioned assets. Optimal control of the assets is implemented with a distributed optimization methodology, leveraging consensus-based algorithms. The results gathered from the optimal control simulations demonstrates that the savings can be duly achieved and the algorithm decision times (to dynamically control asset set points, for example) are fast. As for the overall efficiency of PV+BSS systems, to procure energy savings from curtailment of the demand charge pricing effects, the optimal control is set up so as to minimize the variance of the load for all customers, throughout a feeder and throughout time in a rolling horizon scheduling with model predictive control. The control takes into account inter-temporal electrochemical storage (battery) degradation costs: specifically, we have developed a long-term lifetime model for the BSS that weighs in the effect of the degradation factor in the dispatch formulations, thus, a considerable operating cost that affects energy decision making. The levelized cost of energy (LCOE – redefined for the purpose of quantifying asset integration effectiveness through the customers’ energy cost) is shown to be below the threshold set for the combined PV+BSS topology of $ 0.14/kWh for multiple cases of PV penetration all the way up to 50%, provided that a policy of shared ownership of and savings is in place. Further, the LCOE calculated for the case before the deployment PV+BSS systems is also achievable, i.e. the deployment of PV+BSS, if planned and scheduled optimally. will have no effect on customers’ energy costs. From the control methodology viewpoint, the developed consensus-based algorithms are shown to converge for a wide range of problem cases (spanning normal operating scenarios and contingencies), guaranteeing dispatch solutions under forecasting errors, communication break-downs and cyber-security attacks. The proposed control solutions are scalable and real-time implementable, with dispatch computations and device set-point updates converging in less than 2s in most practical instances of the above events.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Constrained variational optimization of counting-time allocation in sequential scattering measurements: Application to Bonse–Hart USANS

Sequential scattering measurements are often performed under a fixed experimental-time budget, even though the expected count rate varies strongly across the measured coordinate. When the dwell time at each measurement position can be controlled independently, this variation creates a general resource-allocation problem: how should the available time be distributed to minimize the uncertainty of the reconstructed profile? We formulate this problem as a constrained variational optimization for measurements governed by Poisson counting statistics. When each measurement is treated independently, minimizing the averaged squared relative uncertainty yields an inverse-square-root intensity allocation. The formulation is then generalized to include correlations between neighboring measurements and an instrumental resolution operator, leading to an allocation criterion that equalizes the marginal reduction in posterior uncertainty per unit measurement time. Bonse–Hart ultra-small-angle neutron scattering (USANS), in which reciprocal space is sampled sequentially through analyzer-angle stepping, provides an experimentally grounded application. Computational benchmarking shows that the optimized allocation outperforms uniform-time and constant-relative-error strategies, while application to an experimentally measured graphite USANS profile from the Spallation Neutron Source, using Poisson resampling under alternative schedules, demonstrates how counting time should be redistributed toward weak-intensity regions under an identical total duration. The resulting framework applies to sequential scattering and related scanning measurements whenever local dwell times are adjustable and directly determine the measurement uncertainties, and when the relevant correlation and instrumental-response models are available.

Tung, Chi-Huan [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000221972074)↗

NASA NTRS2008

Managing Large Scale Project Analysis Teams through a Web Accessible Database

Large scale space programs analyze thousands of requirements while mitigating safety, performance, schedule, and cost risks. These efforts involve a variety of roles with interdependent use cases and goals. For example, study managers and facilitators identify ground-rules and assumptions for a collection of studies required for a program or project milestone. Task leaders derive product requirements from the ground rules and assumptions and describe activities to produce needed analytical products. Disciplined specialists produce the specified products and load results into a file management system. Organizational and project managers provide the personnel and funds to conduct the tasks. Each role has responsibilities to establish information linkages and provide status reports to management. Projects conduct design and analysis cycles to refine designs to meet the requirements and implement risk mitigation plans. At the program level, integrated design and analysis cycles studies are conducted to eliminate every 'to-be-determined' and develop plans to mitigate every risk. At the agency level, strategic studies analyze different approaches to exploration architectures and campaigns. This paper describes a web-accessible database developed by NASA to coordinate and manage tasks at three organizational levels. Other topics in this paper cover integration technologies and techniques for process modeling and enterprise architectures.

O'Neil, Daniel A.↗

NASA NTRS2021

Assessing Relay Communications for Mars Sample Return Surface Mission Concepts

The Mars Sample Return (MSR) Campaign would be a 3-mission campaign concept supported by NASA and ESA to return samples from the Mars surface. MSR would, for the first time ever, present a need to communicate with multiple surface assets that are co-located on Mars in a coordinated effort to accomplish the unified objective of fetching, transporting, and returning samples from Mars. Currently, Mars surface assets relay data to and from Earth using a number of orbiters in what’s known as the Mars Relay Network (MRN). This network is characterized by a small number of surface assets distributed across the Martian globe and a larger number of orbiters to provide relay services. As of June 2020, there are two surface assets for which five orbiters are providing relay. During the MSR Campaign, there would be two rovers and a lander that all would require relay communication from a small number of Mars orbiters to meet the aggressive MSR timeline. The inversion of the current MRN paradigm, a system of many surface assets requiring relay and few orbiters to provide relay, necessitates the unique challenge of optimally allocating relay passes to maximize the operational capability of all assets. The allocation must consider a large number of trade variables including Mars asset operational requirements and Earth ground system constraints, including staffing schedules, operations planning across time zones, and more. To address these telecommunication challenges, the Mars Asset Relay Mission Link Allocation Design Environment (MARMLADE) tool was developed. It is a MATLAB-based tool to assign orbiter passes or Direct-From-Earth (DFE) links to each of the three surface assets and quantify the operational efficiency of each surface asset.MARMLADE uses a data set of simulated Mars relay orbiter geometry and telecommunication capabilities provided by JPL’s Telecom Orbit Analysis and Simulation Tool (TOAST) software to compute which asset should get each pass based on a series of heuristics and predictions of all assets’ states. Within MARMLADE, the user can provide inputs including the option for time-based pass splitting, fixed FWD data rate capabilities, DFE communication capabilities, and link parameters allowing for the assessment of complex operations and hardware trades using surface mission operational efficiency as a primary figure of merit. As the MSR mission concepts continue to mature, MARMLADE is being used to assess ability of all MSR elements to meet the surface mission timeline requirements and to provide relay link allocations to each of the MSR surface assets.This paper will describe the motivation and design of the MARMLADE tool and how it is being used to perform campaign and mission level trades, generate requirements, and support development of the MSR surface mission scenarios.

Lee, Charles↗

NASA NTRS2005

Cognitive Functioning in Space Exploration Missions: A Human Requirement

Solving cognitive issues in the exploration missions will require implementing results from both Human Behavior and Performance, and Space Human Factors Engineering. Operational and research cognitive requirements need to reflect a coordinated management approach with appropriate oversight and guidance from NASA headquarters. First, this paper will discuss one proposed management method that would combine the resources of Space Medicine and Space Human Factors Engineering at JSC, other NASA agencies, the National Space Biomedical Research Institute, Wyle Labs, and other academic or industrial partners. The proposed management is based on a Human Centered Design that advocates full acceptance of the human as a system equal to other systems. Like other systems, the human is a system with many subsystems, each of which has strengths and limitations. Second, this paper will suggest ways to inform exploration policy about what is needed for optimal cognitive functioning of the astronaut crew, as well as requirements to ensure necessary assessment and intervention strategies for the human system if human limitations are reached. Assessment strategies will include clinical evaluation and fitness-to-perform evaluations. Clinical intervention tools and procedures will be available to the astronaut and space flight physician. Cognitive performance will be supported through systematic function allocation, task design, training, and scheduling. Human factors requirements and guidelines will lead to well-designed information displays and retrieval systems that reduce crew time and errors. Means of capturing process, design, and operational requirements to ensure crew performance will be discussed. Third, this paper will describe the current plan of action, and future challenges to be resolved before a lunar or Mars expedition. The presentation will include a proposed management plan for research, involvement of various organizations, and a timetable of deliverables.

Fiedler, Edan↗

NASA NTRS2010

Improving Life-Cycle Cost Management of Spacecraft Missions

This presentation will explore the results of a recent NASA Life-Cycle Cost study and how project managers can use the findings and recommendations to improve planning and coordination early in the formulation cycle and avoid common pitfalls resulting in cost overruns. The typical NASA space science mission will exceed both the initial estimated and the confirmed life-cycle costs by the end of the mission. In a fixed-budget environment, these overruns translate to delays in starting or launching future missions, or in the worst case can lead to cancelled missions. Some of these overruns are due to issues outside the control of the project; others are due to the unpredictable problems (unknown unknowns) that can affect any development project. However, a recent study of life-cycle cost growth by the Discovery and New Frontiers Program Office identified a number of areas that are within the scope of project management to address. The study also found that the majority of the underlying causes for cost overruns are embedded in the project approach during the formulation and early design phases, but the actual impacts typically are not experienced until late in the project life cycle. Thus, project management focus in key areas such as integrated schedule development, management structure and contractor communications processes, heritage and technology assumptions, and operations planning, can be used to validate initial cost assumptions and set in place management processes to avoid the common pitfalls resulting in cost overruns.

Clardy, Dennon↗

NASA NTRS2012

Real-Time Projection to Verify Plan Success During Execution

The Mission Data System provides a framework for modeling complex systems in terms of system behaviors and goals that express intent. Complex activity plans can be represented as goal networks that express the coordination of goals on different state variables of the system. Real-time projection extends the ability of this system to verify plan achievability (all goals can be satisfied over the entire plan) into the execution domain so that the system is able to continuously re-verify a plan as it is executed, and as the states of the system change in response to goals and the environment. Previous versions were able to detect and respond to goal violations when they actually occur during execution. This new capability enables the prediction of future goal failures; specifically, goals that were previously found to be achievable but are no longer achievable due to unanticipated faults or environmental conditions. Early detection of such situations enables operators or an autonomous fault response capability to deal with the problem at a point that maximizes the available options. For example, this system has been applied to the problem of managing battery energy on a lunar rover as it is used to explore the Moon. Astronauts drive the rover to waypoints and conduct science observations according to a plan that is scheduled and verified to be achievable with the energy resources available. As the astronauts execute this plan, the system uses this new capability to continuously re-verify the plan as energy is consumed to ensure that the battery will never be depleted below safe levels across the entire plan.

Wagner, David A.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Observing Campaign for Potential Deep Impact Flyby Target 163249 (2002 GT)

The Deep Impact spacecraft is currently on course for a Jan. 4, 2020 flyby of the sub-kilometer near-Earth asteroid 163249 (2002 GT). The re-targeting will be complete with a final small maneuver scheduled for Oct. 4, 2012. 2002 GT, which is also designated as a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid (PHA), has a well-determined orbit and is approx 800 m in diameter (H=18.3). Little more is known about the nature of this object, but in mid-2013 it will pass near the Earth, affording an exceptional opportunity for ground-based characterization. At this apparition 2002 GT will be in range of Arecibo. In addition to Doppler measurements, radar delay observations with precisions of a few microseconds are expected and have a good chance of revealing whether the system is binary or not. The asteroid will be brighter than 16th mag., which will facilitate a host of observations at a variety of wavelengths. Light curve measurements across a wide range of viewing perspectives will reveal the rotation rate and ultimately lead to strong constraints on the shape and pole orientation. Visible and infrared spectra will constrain the mineralogy, taxonomy, albedo and size. Along with the radar observations, optical astrometry will further constrain the orbit, both to facilitate terminal guidance operations and to potentially reveal nongravitational forces acting on the asteroid. Coordinating all of these observations will be a significant task and we encourage interested observers to collaborate in this effort. The 2013 apparition of 2002 GT represents a unique opportunity to characterize a potential flyby target, which will aid interpretation of the high-resolution flyby imagery and aid planning and development of the flyby imaging sequence. The knowledge gained from this flyby will be highly relevant to the human exploration program at NASA, which desires more information on the physical characteristics of sub-kilometer near-Earth asteroids.

Pittichova, Jana↗