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At least 451 records · Page 25

A proposed framework for the development and qualitative evaluation of West Nile virus models and their application to local public health decision-making

West Nile virus (WNV) is a globally distributed mosquito-borne virus of great public health concern. The number of WNV human cases and mosquito infection patterns vary in space and time. Many statistical models have been developed to understand and predict WNV geographic and temporal dynamics. However, these modeling efforts have been disjointed with little model comparison and inconsistent validation. In this paper, we describe a framework to unify and standardize WNV modeling efforts nationwide. WNV risk, detection, or warning models for this review were solicited from active research groups working in different regions of the United States. A total of 13 models were selected and described. The spatial and temporal scales of each model were compared to guide the timing and the locations for mosquito and virus surveillance, to support mosquito vector control decisions, and to assist in conducting public health outreach campaigns at multiple scales of decision-making. Our overarching goal is to bridge the existing gap between model development, which is usually conducted as an academic exercise, and practical model applications, which occur at state, tribal, local, or territorial public health and mosquito control agency levels. The proposed model assessment and comparison framework helps clarify the value of individual models for decision-making and identifies the appropriate temporal and spatial scope of each model. This qualitative evaluation clearly identifies gaps in linking models to applied decisions and sets the stage for a quantitative comparison of models. Specifically, whereas many coarse-grained models (county resolution or greater) have been developed, the greatest need is for fine-grained, short-term planning models (m–km, days–weeks) that remain scarce. We further recommend quantifying the value of information for each decision to identify decisions that would benefit most from model input.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

A seamless approach for evaluating climate models across spatial scales

In regions of the world where topography varies significantly with distance, most global climate models (GCMs) have spatial resolutions that are too coarse to accurately simulate key meteorological variables that are influenced by topography, such as clouds, precipitation, and surface temperatures. One approach to tackle this challenge is to run climate models of sufficiently high resolution in those topographically complex regions such as the North American Regionally Refined Model (NARRM) subset of the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SM v2). Although high-resolution simulations are expected to provide unprecedented details of atmospheric processes, running models at such high resolutions remains computationally expensive compared to lower-resolution models such as the E3SM Low Resolution (LR). Moreover, because regionally refined and high-resolution GCMs are relatively new, there are a limited number of observational datasets and frameworks available for evaluating climate models with regionally varying spatial resolutions. As such, we developed a new framework to quantify the added value of high spatial resolution in simulating precipitation over the contiguous United States (CONUS). To determine its viability, we applied the framework to two model simulations and an observational dataset. We first remapped all the data into Hierarchical Equal-Area Iso-Latitude Pixelization (HEALPix) pixels. HEALPix offers several mathematical properties that enable seamless evaluation of climate models across different spatial resolutions including its equal-area and partitioning properties. The remapped HEALPix-based data are used to show how the spatial variability of both observed and simulated precipitation changes with resolution increases. This study provides valuable insights into the requirements for achieving accurate simulations of precipitation patterns over the CONUS. It highlights the importance of allocating sufficient computational resources to run climate models at higher temporal and spatial resolutions to capture spatial patterns effectively. Furthermore, the study demonstrates the effectiveness of the HEALPix framework in evaluating precipitation simulations across different spatial resolutions. This framework offers a viable approach for comparing observed and simulated data when dealing with datasets of varying spatial resolutions. By employing this framework, researchers can extend its usage to other climate variables, datasets, and disciplines that require comparing datasets with different spatial resolutions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Performance Evaluation of Python Based Data Analytics Frameworks in Summit: Early Experiences

The explosion in the volumes of data generated from ever-larger simulation campaigns and experiments or observations necessitates competent tools for data wrangling and analysis). While the Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF) provides a variety of tools to perform data wrangling and data analysis tasks, Python based tools often lack scalability, or the ability to fully exploit the computational capability of OLCF’s Summit supercomputer. NVIDIA RAPIDS and Dask offer a promising solution to accelerate and distribute data analytics workloads from personal computers to heterogeneous supercomputing systems. We discuss early performance evaluation results of RAPIDS and Dask on Summit to understand their capabilities, scalability, and limitations. Our evaluation includes a subset of RAPIDS libraries, i.e., cuDF, cuML, and cuGraph, and Chainer’s CuPy, and their multi-GPU variants when available.We also draw on the observed trends from the performance evaluation results to discuss best practices for maximizing performance.

Hernandez Arreguin, Benjamin↗

Adsorption of Natural Gas in Metal–Organic Frameworks: Selectivity, Cyclability, and Comparison to Methane Adsorption

Evaluation of metal–organic frameworks (MOFs) for adsorbed natural gas (ANG) technology employs pure methane as a surrogate for natural gas (NG). This approximation is problematic, as it ignores the impact of other heavier hydrocarbons present in NG, such as ethane and propane, which generally have more favorable adsorption interactions with MOFs compared to methane. Herein, using quantitative Raman spectroscopic analysis and Monte Carlo calculations, we demonstrate the adsorption selectivity of high-performing MOFs, such as MOF-5, MOF-177, and SNU-70, for a methane and ethane mixture (95:5) that mimics the composition of NG. The impact of selectivity on the storage and deliverable capacities of these adsorbents during successive cycles of adsorption and desorption, simulating the filling and emptying of an ANG tank, is also demonstrated. Finally, the study reveals a gradual reduction in the storage performance of MOFs, particularly with smaller pore volumes, due to ethane accumulation over long-term cycling, until a steady state is reached with substantially degraded storage performance.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Evaluating precipitation distributions at regional scales: a benchmarking framework and application to CMIP5 and 6 models

Abstract. As the resolution of global Earth system models increases, regional-scale evaluations are becoming ever more important. This study presents a framework for quantifying precipitation distributions at regional scales and applies it to evaluate Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) 5 and 6 models. We employ the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) sixth assessment report (AR6) climate reference regions over land and propose refinements to the oceanic regions based on the homogeneity of precipitation distribution characteristics. The homogeneous regions are identified as heavy-, moderate-, and light-precipitating areas by K-means clustering of Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) version 6 final run product (IMERG) precipitation frequency and amount distributions. With the global domain partitioned into 62 regions, including 46 land and 16 ocean regions, we apply 10 established precipitation distribution metrics. The collection includes metrics focused on the maximum peak, lower 10th percentile, and upper 90th percentile in precipitation amount and frequency distributions; the similarity between observed and modeled frequency distributions; an unevenness measure based on cumulative amount; average total intensity on all days with precipitation; and number of precipitating days each year. We apply our framework to 25 CMIP5 and 41 CMIP6 models, as well as six observation-based products of daily precipitation. Our results indicate that many CMIP5 and 6 models substantially overestimate the observed light-precipitation amount and frequency, as well as the number of precipitating days, especially over midlatitude regions outside of some land regions in the Americas and Eurasia. Improvement from CMIP5 to 6 is shown in some regions, especially in midlatitude regions, but it is not evident globally, and over the tropics most metrics point toward degradation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

CONUS-wide Projected Flood Frequency and Uncertainty Estimates, Version 1.0

This dataset presents a large-ensemble of CONUS-wide projected flood frequency and uncertainty estimates across ~2.7 million NHDPlusV2 river reaches over the CONUS. The framework producing this dataset leverages a multi-model, uncertainty-aware modeling framework that allows evaluating shifts in flood frequences at the stream reach level across the CONUS. CONUS-wide ensemble streamflow projections generated from hydrologic simulations driven by downscaled and bias-corrected Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) outputs are used to derive these flood frequency and uncertainty estimates over the period 1980 - 2099. A spatially consistent regional L-moment algorithm is applied across clusters defined by the US Hydrologic Unit Code Subregions (HUC4s and HUC8s) and NHDPlusV2 stream orders to estimate flood frequencies. The dataset also includes at-site based flood estimates that allow for the comparison between local and regional approach-based estimates, assess projected changes, and characterize their uncertainties. For more reliable estimation of rare flood frequencies such as 500 and 1000-year return periods, super-ensemble based estimates are also included in the dataset. This dataset is derived to support the "Impact-Informed Dam Safety Risk Assessment for Securing Hydropower Assests" project for the US Department of Energy (DOE) Hydropower and Hydrokinetic Office (H2O). For further details, refer to Kao et al. (2022), Ghimire et al. (2023), Ghimire et al. (2025), and Hosking and Wallis (1997).

Ghimire, Ganesh [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000242843941)↗

Bayesian Monte-Carlo Framework: New Methods for Resonance Parameter Evaluation [Slides]

BMC evaluation is a tool to address imperfect data & models, non-linear models, and non-normal PDFs. ENDF-6 format does not allow non-normal parameter PDFs. Storing posterior sets allow for variance, covariance, skewness, etc. To better predict criticality, we could document non-normal parameter PDFs (i.e. asymmetric uncertainty), consider non-linear sensitivity of $\kappa$ eff to resonance parameters, and reduce uncertainty in key resonance parameters.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Evaluating Network Performance of Containerized Test Framework for Distributed Space Systems

Distributed space systems are a mission architecture consisting of multiple spacecraft as a cohesive system which provide multipoint sampling, increased mission coverage, or improved sample resolution, while reducing mission risk through redundancy. To fully realize the potential of these systems, eventually scaling to hundreds or thousands of spacecraft, distributed space systems need to be operated as a single entity, which will enable a variety of novel scientific space missions. The Distributed Spacecraft Autonomy (DSA) project is a software project which aims to mature the technology needed for those systems, namely autonomous decision-making and swarm networking. The DSA project leverages a containerized swarm test framework to simulate spacecraft software, which can identify emergent behavior early in development. Container virtualization allows distributed spacecraft systems to be simulated entirely in software on a single computer, avoiding the overhead associated with conventional approaches like hardware facsimiles and virtual machines. For this approach to be effective, the simulated system behavior must not be artificially influenced by the swarm test framework itself. To address this, we present a series of benchmarks to quantify virtual network bandwidth available on a single-host computer and contextualize this against the network and application behavior of the DSA swarm test framework.

Distributed Spacecraft Autonomy↗

A Flexible Quasi-Static Mooring Design Optimization Method for Floating Structures

This paper presents a flexible and efficient design method for optimizing the mooring systems of floating structures. Mooring system optimization is challenging because of the strong nonlinearity of mooring system behavior and the many technical constraints that must be satisfied. Furthermore, different mooring configurations can have very different design spaces. While some successful examples of mooring design optimization exist in the literature, developing an optimization approach that can work across various mooring design problems is a larger challenge. We present such a method based on a flexible parameterization that allows a wide variety of mooring designs to be described by a list of variables, a quasi-static mooring model that provides efficient evaluation of a mooring design without directly considering mooring system dynamics, and an optimization framework that generates, evaluates, and adjusts the mooring design while considering user-specified constraints such as offset limits, strength safety factors, and seabed contact limits. We demonstrate the design optimization framework on four mooring design problems, each for a different type of mooring system. We compare the use of different design modes to simplify the optimization problem, showing that they can reduce the computation time by up to 75%. We also compare different optimization algorithms and find that the resulting computational speed can vary by up to 51 times. We perform a sensitivity study on one design and find that the local sensitivity of anchoring radius to water depth has a positive correlation of 0.29, but the global sensitivity shows large nonlinearities. Lastly, we perform a coupled dynamic analysis on one of the optimized designs and find that the predicted mean platform motions and mooring line tensions are within 1% of dynamic results and the extreme motions and tensions are within 14%. Lastly, we show that a DEA-Chain-Polyester mooring configuration is cost-optimal for the given design problem of the demonstrations, which aligns with general industry practice.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

An Authentication Vulnerability Assessment of Connected Lighting Systems

Emerging connected lighting systems (CLS) that incorporate distributed intelligence, network interfaces, and sensors can become data-collection platforms that enable a wide range of valuable new capabilities as well as greater energy savings in buildings and cities. However, CLS technology is currently at an early stage of development, and its increased connectivity introduces cybersecurity risks that are new to the lighting industry and that must be addressed for successful integration with other systems. While a number of existing frameworks, guidelines, and tests for evaluating cybersecurity vulnerability may apply to CLS in whole or in part, there is currently no mandatory requirement for cybersecurity testing or certification. The lighting industry, including technology developers and specification organizations, is currently evaluating the suitability of existing frameworks and guidelines for CLS. To support these efforts, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) is conducting a series of studies intended to educate lighting industry stakeholders on specific cybersecurity practices and characterize their implementation in commercially available CLS with varying system architectures, network-communication technologies, and degrees of maturity. This study demonstrates that tests for authentication vulnerabilities can be developed with objective pass/fail criteria, therby facilitating comparisons between CLS. Based on the limited results of this study, it appears that the CLS that are being brought to market have varying levels of authentication vulnerability. It is hoped that these evaluations will support and perhaps accelerate industry discussions on the risks of specific security vulnerabilities, what vulnerabilities should be addressed by in-development of future lighting-specific best practices, and whether any such practices should be included in voluntary lighting standards.

42 ENGINEERING↗

A Pulsar-Inspired Timing Framework for Power System: Optimization and Performance Evaluation

Due to their excellent stability, neutron pulsar stars are considered promising candidate timing sources for power system applications. However, the complexity of pulsar signals necessitates advanced processing algorithms to provide accurate timing references. This paper presents the foundational framework for pulsar signal processing, serving as the basis for further optimization. To enhance the timing accuracy and computation efficiency in pulsar period searches, three algorithms are proposed as the initial optimization step: wavelet de-noising, fast folding, and cross-correlation for profile evaluation. Wavelet de-noising improves signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) by 36%–70%. Fast folding reduces computation time from hundreds of seconds to mere milliseconds. Cross-correlation works better than traditional SNR-based methods by effectively identifying the optimal period. The performance of the proposed algorithms is evaluated using observation data from telescopes. Together, these algorithms significantly improve pulsar timing performance, reducing the error of the Pulse Per Second (PPS) signal from hundreds to tens of microseconds.

Wu, Ori [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000326723410)↗

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project: Phase I Activities by a Global Community of Science

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) was founded in 2010. Its mission is to improve substantially the characterization of world food security as affected by climate variability and change, and to enhance adaptation capacity in both developing and developed countries. The objectives of AgMIP are to: Incorporate state-of-the-art climate, crop/livestock, and agricultural economic model improvements into coordinated multi-model regional and global assessments of future climate impacts and adaptation and other key aspects of the food system. Utilize multiple models, scenarios, locations, crops/livestock, and participants to explore uncertainty and the impact of data and methodological choices. Collaborate with regional experts in agronomy, animal sciences, economics, and climate to build a strong basis for model applications, addressing key climate related questions and sustainable intensification farming systems. Improve scientific and adaptive capacity in modeling for major agricultural regions in the developing and developed world, with a focus on vulnerable regions. Improve agricultural data and enhance data-sharing based on their intercomparison and evaluation using best scientific practices. Develop modeling frameworks to identify and evaluate promising adaptation technologies and policies and to prioritize strategies.

farm crops↗

Deterministic modeling of hybrid nonlinear effects in epsilon-near-zero thin films

In nonlinear optics, significant effort is concentrated on improving the strength and efficiency of interactions; however, experimentally investigating nonlinear materials is a complex, time-consuming, and costly investment. Moreover, it is often challenging to isolate, study, and optimize material parameters in an experiment due to complexities in the growth process. Recently, epsilon-near-zero materials have received a great deal of attention as promising nonlinear optical materials, but like many up-and-coming materials, the ability to explore and optimize their properties has been challenging. Here, we establish a framework to rapidly evaluate the performance of nonlinear epsilon-near-zero materials for both inter- and intraband effects in silico, requiring only an energy-momentum (E-k) diagram, linear optical properties, and experimental conditions. Measured nonlinear reflection and transmission in gallium-doped zinc oxide films are compared to the numerical framework for both intra- and interband excitation to verify accuracy across wavelength and irradiance while two figures of merit (FoMs) are introduced to quickly evaluate the performance of films without a full numerical framework. This capability is used to predict the performance of highly doped gallium nitride, cadmium oxide, zinc oxide, and indium tin oxide films, and efficient intra- and interband operation conditions are identified. Through this numerical framework and the FoMs, the exploration of unstudied epsilon-near-zero materials is enabled without the need for a nonlinear experiment, thereby accelerating the search for more efficient nonlinear materials and excitation conditions.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Characterizing and communicating uncertainty: lessons from NASA’s Carbon Monitoring System

Navigating uncertainty is a critical challenge in all fields of science, especially when translating knowledge into real-world policies or management decisions. However, the wide variance in concepts and definitions of uncertainty across scientific fields hinders effective communication. As a microcosm of diverse fields within Earth Science, NASA’s Carbon Monitoring System (CMS) provides a useful crucible in which to identify cross-cutting concepts of uncertainty. The CMS convened the Uncertainty Working Group (UWG), a group of specialists across disciplines, to evaluate and synthesize efforts to characterize uncertainty in CMS projects. This paper represents efforts by the UWG to build a heuristic framework designed to evaluate data products and communicate uncertainty to both scientific and non-scientific end users. We consider four pillars of uncertainty: origins, severity, stochasticity versus incomplete knowledge, and spatial and temporal autocorrelation. Using a common vocabulary and a generalized workflow, the framework introduces a graphical heuristic accompanied by a narrative, exemplified through contrasting case studies. Envisioned as a versatile tool, this framework provides clarity in reporting uncertainty, guiding users and tempering expectations. Beyond CMS, it stands as a simple yet powerful means to communicate uncertainty across diverse scientific communities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

ARETE: Accurate Error Assessment via Machine Learning-Guided Dynamic-Timing Analysis

Nanometer circuits are increasingly prone to timing errors, escalating the need for fault injection frameworks to accurately evaluate their impact on applications. Here in this paper, we propose ARETE, a novel cross-layer, fault-injection framework that combines dynamic-binary instrumentation with machine learning-guided dynamic-timing analysis. ARETE enables accurate fault-injection into any application by estimating the location of the injecting errors via dynamic-timing analysis. To accelerate fault-injection, we develop a novel, data-aware, machine learning-based mechanism that dynamically pre-selects the error-prone instructions and limits the application of the costly dynamic-timing analysis only to them. To evaluate ARETE's accuracy, our fully automated toolflow is configured to support fault-injection based on detailed post-layout gate-level simulations as well as via existing workload-agnostic error models. Our results for various workloads, including an autonomous-driving library, show that the location and time of injected errors performed by ARETE, is 89.9% consistent with fault-injection based on full gate-level simulation. On average, ARETE executes 84.6x faster than gate-level simulation and at a cost of 3.4% loss in the program output quality estimation. When compared to the existing statistical fault-injection tools that are based on workload-agnostic error models, ARETE improves the accuracy of fault-injection rate and output quality estimation by 143.9% and 40.4% on average, respectively.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Applying energy justice metrics to photovoltaic materials research

Abstract Achieving the energy transition sustainably requires addressing how new technologies may impact justice in the energy system. The Justice Underpinning Science and Technology Research (JUST-R) metrics framework was recently proposed to aid researchers in considering justice in early-stage research on energy technologies; however, case study evaluations of the framework revealed a desire from researchers to see metrics specialized to particular fields of study. Here, we refine metrics from the JUST-R framework to enhance its applicability to photovoltaic (PV) materials research. Metrics are reorganized to align with aspects of the research process (e.g., research team or source materials). For most metrics, baseline values are suggested to enable researchers to compare their project to competing technologies or standards at their institutions. These refinements are integrated into a tool to facilitate easier understanding and evaluation of justice considerations in early-stage PV research, which can serve as a template for evaluating other energy technologies. Graphical abstract

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗