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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 451 records · Page 25
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Degradation of electrical resistivity of tungsten following shielded neutron irradiation

A major challenge for heat transfer in nuclear materials is to ensure thermal mobility after high amounts of neutron irradiation. Tungsten is widely selected as a heat transfer material in fusion reactors. In metals, thermal conductivity is dominated by electrons’ ability to transfer energy. Neutron irradiation generates point defects, clusters, and solid transmutation (e.g.rhenium and osmium in tungsten), which inhibit electron motion. The purpose of this work is to quantify the irradiation-induced change in electron mobility and deconvolute transmutation and microstructural effects on observed changes to electron mobility. Single and polycrystalline tungsten were fast neutron irradiated in the High Flux Isotope Reactor at Oak Ridge National Laboratory to doses between 0.2 and 0.7 displacements per atom (dpa) and temperatures from 500 °C to 1000 °C. Grain growth was observed in all samples. Microstructure and transmutation were quantified. The geometric orientation of samples with elongated grains has been shown to affect electrical resistivity. A mathematical model was developed and used to deconvolute solid-solution transmutation, grain, and temperature-dependent lattice effects on resistivity. At ~0.4 dpa at ~590 °C, the combined resistivity degradation due to voids, vacancies, interstitials, and dislocations is estimated to be greater than the contribution from solid solution Re transmutation, which is greater than the contribution from grain boundaries. At doses of ~0.7 dpa at ~750 °C, solid solution Re contributions are greater than all other effects combined. As a result, this work establishes a basis to predict the effects of irradiation temperature and transmutation on thermal properties of tungsten and highlights the importance of irradiation temperature.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Demonstration of Temperature Compensation Techniques for SPNDs Operating in High Temperatures

This report presents the testing results of rhodium-based self-powered neutron detectors (Rh-SPND) irradiated in a furnace dry tube from ambient temperature to 850°C at the Ohio State University Research Reactor. The purpose of the experiment is to demonstrate the technique and application of a temperature compensation technique for the Rh-SPND. This is performed by characterizing the temperature effects observed in past experiments—a displacement current and a stabilized dark current—of the Rh-SPND as a function of temperature under the models of shifting space charges as a product of photoconductivity properties. Low-power irradiation at the OSURR was performed with stabilized temperatures of ambient, 550, 575, 600, 625, 650, 675, and 700°C were first performed to obtain the curve fit parameters that describes the temperature effects. The results provided further insight for the behavior of the SPND at high temperatures in accordance with available insulation conductivity models. Transition points from photoconductivity to ionic conductivity were identified in the range of 550–600°C. Additionally, transition points ionic to electric conductivity were observed in the range of 675–700°C, however, the data was not able to fully capture the transition and did not have enough resolution to provide predictive compensation based only on temperature readings.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Efficiency droop contributors in InGaN green light emitting diodes

Here, efficiency droop contributors (i.e., inherent Auger–Meitner recombination, polarization-induced effects, thermal effects, and light extraction) in InGaN green light emitting diodes (LEDs) are decoupled and quantified. First, a modified ABC model is developed, and external quantum efficiency measurements are taken under constant and pulsed currents (⁠ EQE Constant and EQE Pulsed ⁠, respectively). The LED internal quantum efficiency with and without thermal effects (⁠ IQE$^{ABC}_{Constant}$ and IQE$^{ABC}_{Pulsed}$⁠, respectively) is extracted using the modified model. Then, using Raman spectroscopy, the LED junction temperature is extracted. Finally, using the optical-electrical model (OEM), the polarization- and temperature-independent LED internal quantum efficiency (⁠ IQE OEM ) is calculated from the modified ABC model and the extracted junction temperature. By comparing external (⁠ EQE Constant ⁠) and the three internal quantum efficiencies (⁠ IQE$^{ABC}_{Constant}$, IQE$^{ABC}_{Pulsed}$⁠, and IQE OEM ), the impacts of inherent Auger–Meitner recombination, polarization-induced effects, thermal effects, and light extraction on the efficiency droop are decoupled and quantified. It is found that inherent Auger–Meitner recombination-induced droop is approximately 49% of the total efficiency droop in commercial green LEDs, while polarization-induced effects contribute about 35%, and thermal droop accounts for nearly 16%. Lastly, these findings suggest, to quash the green gap, it is critical to search for materials and device designs with low inherent Auger–Meitner coefficients and polarization fields, respectively.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Investigation of Drift Effects in UEDGE Simulations of NSTX-U Edge Plasma With Lithium Divertors

Lithium is a low-Z material, and lithium-based plasma-facing components (PFCs) are planned for the National Spherical Torus Experiment Upgrade (NSTX-U) to explore potential benefits for divertor power exhaust and core plasma management. NSTX-U is a medium-sized spherical tokamak with up to 12 MW of auxiliary heating, capable of generating reactor-relevant plasma conditions. This work presents boundary plasma simulations for NSTX-U with lithium PFCs using the UEDGE code, incorporating full magnetic and 𝐄 ×𝐁 drift physics. The simulations show that drifts strongly influence heat and particle transport: they enhance convective transport, broaden the scrape-off layer heat-flux width 𝜆 𝑞 , and reduce the anomalous heat diffusivity 𝜒 required to reproduce predicted SOL heat-flux width. 𝐄 ×𝐁 drifts provide poloidal transport, while ∇𝐵 (which includes both gradB and curvature) drifts provide radial heat and particle transport. Lithium transport is also affected by drifts, with lithium ions migrating from the outer divertor to the inner divertor through the private flux region (PFR) following the 𝐄 ×𝐁 drifts flow, lowering upstream impurity lithium densities. UEDGE is self-consistently coupled with the Wall-Li model to study plasma lithium PFC interactions depending on the local lithium sourcing based on local plasma conditions and lithium surface temperature. In these simulations, lithium evaporation shows a vapor-shielding effect that reduces divertor heat flux and increases radiative losses once surface temperatures exceed 450°C. This research work provides a first step toward self-consistent modeling of lithium PFCs in NSTX-U, demonstrating the impact of drift-driven plasma transport in SOL and divertor regions.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Finite-temperature electron-capture rates for neutron-rich nuclei near N = 50 and effects on core-collapse supernova simulations

In this paper the temperature dependence of stellar electron-capture (EC) rates is investigated, with a focus on nuclei near N = 50, just above Z = 28, which play an important role during the collapse phase of core-collapse supernovae (CCSN). Two new microscopic calculations of stellar EC rates are obtained from relativistic and nonrelativistic finite-temperature quasiparticle random-phase approximation approaches, for a conventional grid of temperatures and densities. In both approaches, EC rates due to Gamow-Teller transitions are included. In the relativistic calculation, contributions from first-forbidden transitions are also included and add strongly to the EC rates. The new EC rates are compared with large-scale shell-model calculations for the specific case of 86 Kr, providing insight into the finite-temperature effects on the EC rates. At relevant thermodynamic conditions for core collapse, the discrepancies between the different calculations of this paper are within about one order of magnitude. Numerical simulations of CCSN are performed with the spherically symmetric gr1d simulation code to quantify the impact of such differences on the dynamics of the collapse. These simulations also include EC rates based on two parametrized approximations. A comparison of the neutrino luminosities and enclosed mass at core bounce shows that differences between simulations with different sets of EC rates are relatively small (≈ 5 %), suggesting that the EC rates used as inputs for these simulations have become well constrained.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Magnetothermal properties of Tm x Dy 1- x Al 2 ( x = 0.25, 0.50 and 0.75)

Here, we describe magnetic, thermal, and magnetocaloric properties of rare earth intermetallic compounds Tm x Dy 1-x Al 2 with 0.25, 0.5 and 0.75. Using model Hamiltonian we consider contributions of the crystalline electric field anisotropy in both Tm and Dy magnetic sublattices, disorder in exchange interactions among Tm-Tm, Dy-Dy and Tm-Dy magnetic ions, and the Zeeman effect. Employing earlier reported and new experimental measurements, we first determine a single free variable – the intersublattice magnetic exchange parameter – to properly model the temperature and magnetic field dependencies of heat capacity and magnetization, and then use the modeling results to explain the emergence of an anomalous spin reorientation transition and its influence on the magnetocaloric effect in the title compounds. Theoretical results agree with experimental data reasonably well.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Moderate-resolution K-band Spectroscopy of Substellar Companion κ Andromedae b

We present moderate-resolution (R ∼ 4000) K-band spectra of the “super-Jupiter,” κ Andromedae b. The data were taken with the OSIRIS integral field spectrograph at Keck Observatory. The spectra reveal resolved molecular lines from H{sub 2}O and CO, and are compared to a custom PHOENIX atmosphere model grid appropriate for young planetary-mass objects. We fit the data using a Markov chain Monte Carlo forward-modeling method. Using a combination of our moderate-resolution spectrum and low-resolution, broadband data from the literature, we derive an effective temperature of T {sub eff} = 1950–2150 K, a surface gravity of logg=3.5--4.5, and a metallicity of [M/H] = −0.2–0.0. These values are consistent with previous estimates from atmospheric modeling and the currently favored young age of the system (<50 Myr). We derive a C/O ratio of 0.70{sub −0.24}{sup +0.09} for the source, broadly consistent with the solar C/O ratio. This, coupled with the slightly subsolar metallicity, implies a composition consistent with that of the host star, and is suggestive of formation by a rapid process. The subsolar metallicity of κ Andromedae b is also consistent with predictions of formation via gravitational instability. Further constraints on formation of the companion will require measurement of the C/O ratio of κ Andromedae A. We also measure the radial velocity of κ Andromedae b for the first time, with a value of −1.4 ± 0.9 km s{sup −1} relative to the host star. We find that the derived radial velocity is consistent with the estimated high eccentricity of κ Andromedae b.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Assessment of the burning-plasma operational space in ITER by using a control-oriented core-SOL-divertor model

In future tokamaks, the control of burning plasmas will require careful regulation of the plasma density and temperature. Along with the design of effective burn-control systems, understanding how the fusion power varies in the density-temperature space is vital for the operation of fusion power plants. Here in this work, the steady-state operational space of ITER is studied using a control-oriented core-plasma model coupled to a two-point model of the scrape-off-layer (SOL) and divertor regions. The two models are coupled through the exchange of input-output parameters. The deuterium and tritium recycling from the wall are output parameters of the SOL-divertor model that are used as input parameters in the core-plasma density balance. Furthermore, the separatrix temperature, which is an output parameter of the SOL-divertor model, is incorporated into the radial core-plasma temperature profiles. Therefore, the temperature-dependent power balance of the plasma core is intimately linked to the SOL-divertor model. Both the power entering the SOL from the core, as determined by the core-plasma power balance, and the separatrix density, as dictated by the core-plasma density balance, are input parameters to the SOL-divertor model. They are control knobs in the SOL-divertor model that can be regulated using the core-plasma actuators: auxiliary power and pellet injection. There are various operational limitations, such as the saturation of the aforementioned actuators, that will prevent ITER from accessing certain high-fusion plasma regimes. The achievable tritium concentration in the fueling lines and the maximum sustainable heat load on the divertor will impose further restrictions. By accounting for these limitations, the ITER operational space is computed based on the coupled core-SOL-divertor model and visualized using Plasma Operation Contour (POPCON) plots that map performance metrics, such as the fusion to auxiliary power ratio, over the density-temperature space. Comparisons are drawn between plasmas with different recycling, confinement, and SOL-divertor conditions.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Theory of Photoluminescence Spectral Line Shapes of Semiconductor Nanocrystals

Single-molecule photoluminescence (PL) spectroscopy of semiconductor nanocrystals (NCs) reveals the nature of exciton–phonon interactions in NCs. Understanding the homogeneous spectral line shapes and their temperature dependence remains an open problem. Here, we develop an atomistic model to describe the PL spectrum of NCs, accounting for excitonic effects, phonon dispersion relations, and exciton–phonon couplings. We validate our model using single-NC measurements on CdSe/CdS NCs from T = 4 to 290 K, and we find that the slightly asymmetric main peak at low temperatures is comprised of a narrow zero-phonon line (ZPL) and acoustic phonon sidebands. Furthermore, we identify the specific phonon modes that give rise to the optical phonon sidebands. At temperatures above 200 K, the spectral line width shows a stronger dependence upon the temperature, which we demonstrate to be correlated with higher order exciton–phonon couplings. We also identify the line width dependence upon reorganization energy, NC core sizes, and shell thicknesses.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Effect of triangularity on ion-temperature-gradient-driven turbulence

The linear and nonlinear properties of ion-temperature-gradient-driven turbulence with adiabatic electrons are modeled for axisymmetric configurations for a broad range of triangularities δ, both negative and positive. Peak linear growth rates decrease with negative δ but increase and shift toward a finite radial wavenumber kx with positive δ. The growth-rate spectrum broadens as a function of kx with negative δ and significantly narrows with positive δ. Here, the effect of triangularity on linear instability properties can be explained through its impact on magnetic polarization and curvature. Nonlinear heat flux is weakly dependent on triangularity for |δ|≤0.5, decreasing significantly with extreme δ, regardless of sign. Zonal modes play an important role in nonlinear saturation in the configurations studied, and artificially suppressing zonal modes increased nonlinear heat flux by a factor of about four for negative δ, increasing with positive δ by almost a factor of 20. Proxies for zonal-flow damping and drive suggest that zonal flows are enhanced with increasing positive δ.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

J-PLUS: Support vector regression to measure stellar parameters

Stellar parameters are among the most important characteristics in studies of stars which, in traditional methods, are based on atmosphere models. However, time, cost, and brightness limits restrain the efficiency of spectral observations. The Javalambre Photometric Local Universe Survey (J-PLUS) is an observational campaign that aims to obtain photometry in 12 bands. Owing to its characteristics, J-PLUS data have become a valuable resource for studies of stars. Machine learning provides powerful tools for efficiently analyzing large data sets, such as the one from J-PLUS, and enables us to expand the research domain to stellar parameters. The main goal of this study is to construct a support vector regression (SVR) algorithm to estimate stellar parameters of the stars in the first data release of the J-PLUS observational campaign. The training data for the parameter's regressions are featured with 12-waveband photometry from J-PLUS and are crossidentified with spectrum-based catalogs. These catalogs are from the Large Sky Area Multi-Object Fiber Spectroscopic Telescope, the Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment, and the Sloan Extension for Galactic Understanding and Exploration. We then label them with the stellar effective temperature, the surface gravity, and the metallicity. Ten percent of the sample is held out to apply a blind test. We develop a new method, a multi-model approach, in order to fully take into account, the uncertainties of both the magnitudes and the stellar parameters. The method utilizes more than 200 models to apply the uncertainty analysis. We present a catalog of 2 493 424 stars with the root mean square error of 160 K in the effective temperature regression, 0.35 in the surface gravity regression, and 0.25 in the metallicity regression. We also discuss the advantages of this multi-model approach and compare it to other machine-learning methods.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Temperature effect on turbulent burning velocity of lean premixed hydrogen/air flames

Hydrogen has drawn great attention in recent years as a carbon-free fuel. The turbulent burning velocity (S T ) is an important parameter for the design and modeling of hydrogen-fueled engines given the high propagation speed of hydrogen flames. It has been well documented that S T of hydrogen flames can be dramatically increased by thermo-diffusive effects which are sensitive to thermodynamic conditions. Previous studies have mainly focused on the pressure effect on S T of lean hydrogen flames, while the temperature effect has been largely ignored. Here, in the present study, the turbulent burning velocity for a lean hydrogen/air mixture over a wide range of temperatures (300–641 K) and pressures (1–15 atm) is investigated through direct numerical simulations of statistically planar turbulent premixed flames. Results show that the variation of normalized turbulent burning velocity (S T /S L , where S L is the laminar flame speed) with temperature and pressure is mainly controlled by the variation of the stretching factor I 0 . While S T /S L is only marginally dependent on temperature at the atmospheric pressure, it exhibits a decreasing trend with temperature at an elevated pressure (10 atm). This is associated with different temperature dependencies of flame surface area enlargement at the two different pressures, despite the monotonically decreasing trends of I 0 with temperature at both pressures. In addition, under engine-relevant conditions where the temperature and pressure increase simultaneously, the promotion effect of pressure is found to be largely canceled out by the suppression effect of temperature, leading to only a slight increase in I 0 and S T /S L . The observed trends are further explained through detailed flame dynamic analysis. Furthermore, I 0 at different temperatures and pressures is found to correlate very well with the enhancement of fuel consumption rate in the critically strained laminar flames. The present study elucidates the strong impact of temperature on S T of lean premixed hydrogen/air flames at elevated pressures and provides new insights into the modeling of S T , especially for engine-relevant conditions.

Wang, Yiqing [Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), A↗
DOE OSTI2024

Methodology to evaluate design modifications intended to eliminate frosting and high discharge temperatures in air-source heat pumps (ASHPs) in cold climates

Air-source heat pumps (ASHPs) operating in cold climates experience problems with frosting and high refrigerant temperatures. These problems increase energy consumption, and their severity depends on the climatic conditions. In the present paper, a methodology for identifying the prevailing problem between frosting and high discharge temperatures is presented. Three performance indices, the frosting index (FI), the discharge index (DI), and the total loss index (TLI), are proposed to quantify the impacts of frosting and high discharge temperatures on the annual performance of ASHPs in different climatic conditions. The FI and DI show which problem (frosting or high discharge temperature) dominates, and the TLI indicates the combined effect of frosting and high discharge temperatures on the performance of an ASHP. A thermodynamic model of an ASHP coupled with the TRNSYS building simulation tool is used to estimate the performance of an ASHP and the proposed loss indices to estimate the impact of both frosting and high discharge temperatures for 45 cities in Canada. The results can be extended to other parts of the world that experience similar climatic conditions The results reveal that in cities in ASHRAE climatic zones 5 and 6 (classified as cold regions) where the ambient air temperatures are predominantly between -15 °C to 6 °C, ASHPs are heavily impacted by frosting. The problem of high discharge temperatures in ASHPs is predominant in cities in climate zones 7 and 8 (classified as very cold and subarctic regions) where the temperatures are frequently below -20 °C in winter. Among the cities considered, St. John, NL has the highest fraction of heating hours experiencing frosting (90 %), where the annual increase in energy consumption due to frosting is 13.5 % of the annual heating energy consumption. The highest annual increase in energy consumption due to high discharge temperatures is in Isachsen, NU (zone 8), where the increase is 30 % of the annual heating energy consumption. Based on the proposed indices, another index called the performance gain index (PGI) is created, which can be used as a first step to assess the energy-saving potential of design modifications applied to ASHPs to solve the problems of frosting and high discharge temperatures. The PGI will aid in developing climate specific ASHPs. One possible design modification is the use of a two-stage ASHP with an economizer. It is observed that the two-stage ASHP with economizer can mitigate high discharge temperatures and improve performance in very cold and subarctic regions (zones 7 and 8). However, it is not as beneficial in zones 5 and 6, where the impact of high discharge temperatures on performance is minimal and frosting dominates. Finally, a case study, using the PGI to evaluate the economic and environmental effectiveness of a two-stage ASHP with economizer is presented for the city of Saskatoon.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Rigorous computation of short-range order unifies its controversial effects in complex concentrated alloys

Direct experimental observations of chemical short-range order (SRO) in complex concentrated alloys (CCAs) have triggered high interest. However, the reported effects of SRO on yield stresses are controversial, and their atomic-scale mechanisms are elusive, which limits our ability to utilize SRO in alloy design. Here we tackle this challenge using an advanced computational approach that rigorously takes into account the critical lattice distortion in CCAs and further verify our theoretical predictions with experiments. We show that the CoCrNi model alloy has a narrow temperature window around 670 °C for SRO formation. This explains why the mechanical effect of SRO is observed in some experiments but not in others. Here, we propose an effective alloy-doping method to control SRO and reveal atomic-bonding types that dominate SRO formation for different alloys. The strategies and insights generally apply to a broad spectrum of alloys, laying the foundation for designing advanced alloys by manipulating their SRO.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling and simulation of oxygen transport in high burnup LWR fuel

We have developed a formulation for oxygen transport in uranium dioxide nuclear fuel that accounts for the effects of irradiation. The overall simulation combines the evolving isotopic composition, thermochemistry, and oxygen transport in irradiated fuel. The driving forces for oxygen transport are computed from local thermodynamic equilibrium calculations and account for the effects of temperature gradients and composition, including fission products. The proposed method provides a mechanism for including complex thermodynamic models of nuclear fuel in modeling of mass redistribution, and alleviates difficulties associated with the common thermodiffusion formulation. Here, the transport model has been implemented within the nuclear fuel performance code BISON utilizing the thermochemistry code Thermochimica, with burnup calculations provided by the ORIGEN isotopic transmutation code.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Extending the capillary wave model to include the effect of bending rigidity: X-ray reflectivity and diffuse scattering

The surface roughness of a thin film at a liquid interface exhibits contributions of thermally excited fluctuations. This thermal roughness depends on temperature (𝑇), surface tension (𝛾), and elastic material properties, specifically the bending modulus (𝜅) of the film. A nonzero 𝜅 suppresses the thermal roughness at small length scales compared to an interface with zero 𝜅, as expressed by the power spectral density of the thermal roughness. The description of the x-ray scattering of the standard capillary wave model (CWM), which is valid for zero 𝜅, is extended to include the effect of 𝜅. The extended CWM (eCWM) provides a single analytical form for both the specular x-ray reflectivity (XRR) and the diffuse scattering around the specular reflection, and recovers the expression of the CWM at its zero 𝜅 limit. This theoretical approach enables the use of single-shot grazing incidence x-ray off-specular scattering (GIXOS) measurements for characterizing the structure of thin films on a liquid surface. The eCWM analysis approach decouples the thermal roughness factor from the surface scattering signal, providing direct access to the intrinsic surface-normal structure of the film and its bending modulus. Moreover, the eCWM facilitates the calculation of reflectivity at any desired resolution (pseudo-XRR approach). The transformation into pseudo-XRR provides the benefit of using widely available XRR software to perform GIXOS analysis. The extended range of the vertical scattering vector (𝑄 𝑧 ) available with the GIXOS pseudo-XRR approach allows for a higher spatial resolution than with conventional XRR. Experimental results are presented for various lipid systems, showing strong agreement between conventional specular XRR and pseudo-XRR methods. This agreement validates the proposed approach and highlights its utility for analyzing soft, thin films.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling of gap conductance for LWR fuel rods applied in the BISON code

A new gap conductance model is proposed in this study as a combination of Toptan’s model and the Ross-Stoute model. A variance-based sensitivity analysis is performed to understand how simulation results depend on all input parameters of the proposed model. Additionally, new modeling options (e.g. fill gas thermal conductivity, temperature jump distance, thermal accommodation coefficient, etc.) are added into the nuclear fuel performance code, BISON. The need for further investigation of the gap heat transfer between fuel and cladding in BISON motivated this study to evaluate its impact on the code’s predictions. New gap conductance modeling is proposed. A series of integral-effects validation tests is performed: (1) to demonstrate the impact of the proposed model on the code’s fuel temperature predictions at the beginning of life and through the reactor’s life; (2) to ensure that the proposed model is capable of accurately modeling gap heat transfer characteristics in real-world problems; and (3) to investigate the impact of the estimation of fission gas release on the fuel temperature predictions with the proposed model. Overall, the results indicate that the proposed gap conductance model improves BISON’s predictions.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

A comparison of model validation approaches for echo state networks using climate model replicates

As global temperatures continue to rise, climate mitigation strategies such as stratospheric aerosol injections (SAI) are increasingly discussed, but the downstream effects of these strategies are not well understood. As such, there is interest in developing statistical methods to quantify the evolution of climate variable relationships during the time period surrounding an SAI. Feature importance applied to echo state network (ESN) models has been proposed as a way to understand the effects of SAI using a data-driven model. This approach depends on the ESN fitting the data well. If not, the feature importance may place importance on features that are not representative of the underlying relationships. Typically, time series prediction models such as ESNs are assessed using out-of-sample performance metrics that divide the times series into separate training and testing sets. However, this model assessment approach is geared towards forecasting applications and not scenarios such as the motivating SAI example where the objective is using a data driven model to capture variable relationships. Here, in this paper, we demonstrate a novel use of climate model replicates to investigate the applicability of the commonly used repeated hold-out model assessment approach for the SAI application. Simulations of an SAI are generated using a simplified climate model, and different initialization conditions are used to provide independent training and testing sets containing the same SAI event. The climate model replicates enable out-of-sample measures of model performance, which are compared to the single time series hold-out validation approach. For our case study, it is found that the repeated hold-out sample performance is comparable, but conservative, to the replicate out-of-sample performance when the training set contains enough time after the aerosol injection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗