Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “applied statistics”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 415 records · Page 23
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Systematic investigation of the particle spectra in heavy-ion collisions at the Large Hadron Collider

We investigate the charged particle spectra produced in the heavy-ion collisions at nine centralities from different systems, i.e. Pb+Pb at √ s NN = 2.76 TeV and 5.02 TeV as well as Xe+Xe at √ s NN = 5.44 TeV, at Large Hadron Collider (LHC) using one empirical formula inspired by the stationary solution of the Fokker-Planck equation, dubbed as the generalized Fokker-Planck solution (GFPS). Our results show that the GFPS can reproduce the experimental particle spectrum up to transverse momentum pT about 45 GeV/c with the maximum discrepancy 30% covering 10 orders of magnitude. Here, the discrepancy between the data and the results from the GFPS decreases to 15% when the maximum of the charged particle transverse momentum is cut to 20 GeV/c. We confirmed that the Tsallis distribution derived from the non-extensive statistics, which can reproduce the particle spectra produced in small collision systems, such as p+p, up to few hundreds GeV/c, can only apply to systematically study the particle spectra up to 8 GeV/c in A+A collisions at LHC, as pointed out in the study of identified particle spectra in Pb+Pb collisions at √ s NN = 2.76 TeV. A brief discussion on GFPS is also given.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Comparison of All Solid Cancer Mortality and Incidence Dose-Response in the Life Span Study of Atomic Bomb Survivors, 1958–2009

Recent analysis of all solid cancer incidence (1958–2009) in the Life Span Study (LSS) revealed evidence of upward curvature in the radiation dose response among males but not females. Upward curvature in sex-averaged excess relative risk (ERR) for all solid cancer mortality (1950–2003) was also observed in the 0–2 Gy dose range. As reasons for non-linearity in the LSS are not completely understood, we conducted dose response analyses for all solid cancer mortality and incidence applying similar methods (1958–2009 follow-up, DS02R1 doses, including subjects notin-city (NIC) at the time of the bombing) and statistical models. Incident cancers were ascertained from Hiroshima and Nagasaki cancer registries, while cause of death was ascertained from death certificates over entire Japan. The study included 105,444 LSS subjects who were alive and not known to have cancer before Jan 1, 1958 (80,205 with dose estimates and 25,239 NIC subjects). Between 1958 and 2009, there were 3.1 million person-years (PY) and 22,538 solid cancers for incidence analysis and 3.8 million PY and 15,419 solid cancer deaths for mortality analysis. We fitted sex-specific ERR models adjusted for smoking to both types of data. Over the entire range of doses, solid cancer mortality dose response exhibited a borderline significant upward curvature among males (P=0.062) and significant upward curvature among females (P=0.010); for solid cancer incidence, as before, we found a significant upward curvature among males (P=0.001) but not among females (P=0.624). The sex difference in magnitude of dose response curvature was statistically significant for cancer incidence (P=0.017) but not for cancer mortality (P=0.781). The results of analyses in the 0–2 Gy range and restricted lower dose ranges generally supported inferences made about the sex-specific dose response shape over the entire range of doses for each outcome. Patterns of sex-specific curvature by calendar period (1958–1987 vs 1988–2009) and age at exposure (0–19 vs 20–83) varied between mortality and incidence data, particularly among females, although for each outcome there was an indication of curvature among 0–19 year old male survivors in both calendar periods and among 0–19 year old female survivors in the recent period. Collectively, our findings indicate that the upward curvature in all solid cancer dose response in the LSS is neither specific to males nor to incidence data; it appears to depend on composition of case series and age at exposure or time. Further follow-up and site-specific analyses of cancer mortality and incidence will be important to confirm the emerging trend in dose response curvature among young survivors and unveil the contributing factors and sites.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗
DOE OSTI2021

Estimating the Adequacy of a Multi-Objective Optimization

Multi-objective optimization methods can be criticized for lacking a statistically valid measure of the quality and representativeness of a solution. This stance is especially relevant to metaheuristic optimization approaches but can also apply to other methods that typically might only report a small representative subset of a Pareto frontier. Here we present a method to address this deficiency based on random sampling of a solution space to determine, with a specified level of confidence, the fraction of the solution space that is surpassed by an optimization. The Superiority of Multi-Objective Optimization to Random Sampling, or SMORS method, can evaluate quality and representativeness using dominance or other measures, e.g., a spacing measure for high-dimensional spaces. SMORS has been tested in a combinatorial optimization context using a genetic algorithm but could be useful for other optimization methods.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

DESI Strong Lens Foundry. I. HST Observations and Modeling with GIGA-Lens

We present the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Strong Lens Foundry. We discovered ∼3500 new strong gravitational lens candidates in the DESI Legacy Imaging Surveys using residual neural networks (ResNet). We observed a subset (51) of our candidates using the Hubble Space Telescope (HST). Except for one ambiguous case, we have confirmed 50 of the 51 candidates to be strong lenses. We also briefly describe spectroscopic follow-up observations by DESI and Keck NIRES programs. From this very rich data set, a number of studies will be carried out, including evaluating the quality of the ResNet search candidates and lens modeling. In this paper, we present our initial effort in these directions. In particular, as a demonstration, we present the lens model for DESI-165.4754−06.0423, with imaging data from HST, and lens and source redshifts from DESI and Keck NIRES, respectively. In this effort, we have applied a fully forward-modeling Bayesian approach (GIGA-Lens), using multiple GPUs, to a strong lens with HST data, and achieved statistical convergence.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Sylvester Graphical Lasso (SyGlasso)

This paper introduces the Sylvester graphical lasso (SyGlasso) that captures multiway dependencies present in tensor-valued data. The model is based on the Sylvester equation that defines a generative model. The proposed model complements the tensor graphical lasso that imposes a Kronecker sum model for the inverse covariance matrix by providing an alternative Kronecker sum model that is generative and interpretable. A nodewise regression approach is adopted for estimating the conditional independence relationships among variables. The statistical convergence of the method is established, and empirical studies are provided to demonstrate the recovery of meaningful conditional dependency graphs. Here we apply the SyGlasso to an electroencephalography (EEG) study to compare the brain connectivity of alcoholic and nonalcoholic subjects. Here, we demonstrate that our model can simultaneously estimate both the brain connectivity and its temporal dependencies.

Wang, Yu↗
DOE OSTI2023

Domain Adaptive Graph Neural Networks for Constraining Cosmological Parameters Across Multiple Data Sets

State of the art astronomical simulations have provided datasets which enabled the training of novel deep learning techniques for constraining cosmological parameters. However, differences in subgrid physics implementation and numerical approximations among simulation suites lead to differences in simulated datasets, which pose a hard challenge when trying to generalize across diverse data domains and ultimately when applying models to observational data. Recent work reveals deep learning algorithms are able to extract more information from complex cosmological simulations than summary statistics like power spectra. We introduce Domain Adaptive Graph Neural Networks (DA-GNNs), trained on CAMELS data, inspired by CosmoGraphNet (Villanueva-Domingo et al 2023). By utilizing GNNs, we can capitalize on their capacity to capture both astrophysical and topological features of galaxy distributions. Mixing these capabilities with domain adaptation techniques such as Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD), which enable extraction of domain-invariant features, our framework demonstrates enhanced accuracy and robustness. We present experimental results, including the alignment of distributions across domains through data visualization. These findings suggest that DA-GNNs are an efficient way of extracting domain independent cosmological information, a vital step toward robust deep learning for real cosmic survey data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Windowing artefacts likely account for recent claimed detection of oscillating cosmic scale factor

ABSTRACT Using the Pantheon data set of Type Ia supernovae, a recent publication (R20 in this work) reports a 2σ detection of oscillations in the expansion history of the Universe. The study conducted by R20 is wholly worthwhile. However, we demonstrate that there is a $\gt 10{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ chance of statistical fluctuations in the Pantheon data producing a false oscillatory signal larger than the oscillatory signal that R20 report. Their results are a less than 2σ detection. Applying the R20 methodology to simulated Pantheon data, we determine that these oscillations could arise due to analysis artefacts. The uneven spacing of Type Ia supernovae in redshift space and the complicated analysis method of R20 impose a structured throughput function. When analysed with the R20 prescription, about $11{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ of artificial ΛCDM data sets produce a stronger oscillatory signal than the actual Pantheon data. Our results underscore the importance of understanding the false ‘signals’ that can be introduced by complicated data analyses.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Improved Statistics for F-theory Standard Models

Much of the analysis of F-theory-based Standard Models boils down to computing cohomologies of line bundles on matter curves. By varying parameters one can degenerate such matter curves to singular ones, typically with many nodes, where the computation is combinatorial and straightforward. The question remains to relate the (a priori possibly smaller) value on the original curve to the singular one. In this work, we introduce some elementary techniques (pruning trees and removing interior edges) for simplifying the resulting nodal curves to a small collection of terminal ones that can be handled directly. When applied to the QSMs, these techniques yield optimal results in the sense that obtaining more precise answers would require currently unavailable information about the QSM geometries. This provides us with an opportunity to enhance the statistical bounds established in earlier research regarding the absence of vector-like exotics on the quark-doublet curve.

Bies, Martin↗
DOE OSTI2020

Nature Versus Nurture: A Bayesian Framework for Assessing Apparent Correlations between Planetary Orbital Properties and Stellar Ages

Many exoplanets have orbital characteristics quite different from those seen in our own solar system, including planets locked in orbital resonances and planets on orbits that are elliptical or highly inclined from their host star’s spin axis. It is debated whether the wide variety in system architecture is primarily due to differences in formation conditions (nature) or due to evolution over time (nurture). Identifying trends between planetary and stellar properties, including stellar age, can help distinguish between these competing theories and offer insights as to how planets form and evolve. However, it can be challenging to determine whether observed trends between planetary properties and stellar age are driven by the age of the system—pointing to evolution over time being an important factor—or other parameters to which the age may be related, such as stellar mass or stellar temperature. The situation is complicated further by the possibilities of selection biases, small number statistics, uncertainties in stellar age, and orbital evolution timescales that are typically much shorter than the range of observed ages. Here, we develop a Bayesian statistical framework to assess the robustness of such observed correlations and to determine whether they are indeed due to evolutionary processes, are more likely to reflect different formation scenarios, or are merely coincidental. We apply this framework to reported trends between stellar age and 2:1 orbital resonances, spin–orbit misalignments, and hot Jupiters’ orbital eccentricities. We find strong support for the nurture hypothesis only in the final case.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Roadmap and Benchmarking: Privacy in Federated Load Forecasting

Data-driven techniques for energy demand forecasting continue to emerge with promising impacts on distribution grid planning. However, the development of robust and generalizable machine learning models requires that representative high quality training data are available. Distributed energy resources have begun to embed intelligence, gathering large amounts of data on customer demand, behavior, and household devices that are connected to the grid. Though utilities aggregate meter-level demand data for load shaping, demand response, outage management, reliability planning, and billing applications, there lies an inherent privacy concern in sharing consumption data that may identify individual consumer behavioral patterns. Hence, while sharing the data is crucial, the private sensitive customer data must be safeguarded from being exposed or manipulated. In this study, we propose a roadmap for implementing a based privacy preserving framework to support the advancement of data-driven analytics in data-sensitive distributed energy resources environments. The roadmap incorporates federated learning–a distributed training framework, differential privacy–a statistical framework that provides guarantees to safeguard the leakage of sensitive data, secure multiparty computation and homomorphic encryption– techniques for encrypting model gradients and applying secure aggregation on the server. Moreover, we perform baseline experiments on the federated short-term load forecasting (STLF) task using open-source residential load profile datasets, offering insights into the challenges of integrating differential privacy into federated learning.

Abebe, Waqwoya [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORN↗
DOE OSTI2023

A data driven approach for cross-slip modelling in continuum dislocation dynamics

Cross-slip is a thermally activated process by which screw dislocation changes its glide plane to another slip plane sharing the same Burgers vector. The rate at which this process happens is determined by a Boltzmann type expression that is a function of the screw segment length and the stress acting on the dislocation. In continuum dislocation dynamics (CDD), the information regarding the length of the screw dislocation segment and local stress state on dislocations are lost due to the coarse-grained representation of the density. Here, in this work, a data driven approach to characterize the lost information by analyzing the discrete dislocation configurations is proposed to enable cross-slip modeling in the CDD framework in terms of the coarse-grained dislocation density and stress fields. The analysis showed that the screw segment length follows an exponential distribution, and the stress fluctuations, defined as the difference between the stress on the dislocations and the mean field stress in CDD, follows a Lorentzian distribution. A novel approach for cross slip implementation in CDD employing the screw segment length and stress fluctuation statistics was proposed and rigorously tested by comparing the CDD cross-slip rates with discrete dislocation dynamics (DDD) rates. This approach has been applied in conjunction with three cross-slip models used in DDD simulations differing mainly in the functional form of cross slip activation energy. It was found that different cross-slip activation energy formulations yielded different cross-slip rates, yet the effect on mechanical stress-strain response and dislocation density evolution was minimal for the [001] type loading.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Forces from Stochastic Density Functional Theory under Nonorthogonal Atom-Centered Basis Sets

We develop a formalism for calculating forces on the nuclei within the linear-scaling stochastic density functional theory (sDFT) in a nonorthogonal atom-centered basis set representation (Fabian et al. Wiley Interdiscip. Rev.: Comput. Mol. Sci. 2019, 9, e1412, 10.1002/wcms.1412) and apply it to the Tryptophan Zipper 2 (Trp-zip2) peptide solvated in water. We use an embedded-fragment approach to reduce the statistical errors (fluctuation and systematic bias), where the entire peptide is the main fragment and the remaining 425 water molecules are grouped into small fragments. We analyze the magnitude of the statistical errors in the forces and find that the systematic bias is of the order of 0.065 eV/Å (~1.2 × 10 -3 E h / a 0 ) when 120 stochastic orbitals are used, independently of system size. This magnitude of bias is sufficiently small to ensure that the bond lengths estimated by stochastic DFT (within a Langevin molecular dynamics simulation) will deviate by less than 1% from those predicted by a deterministic calculation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluating Shallow Convection Parameterization Assumptions With a q t – w Quadrant Analysis

Abstract Uncertainties associated with the response of shallow clouds to global warming remain a great challenge for climate projection. Due to the small size of these clouds, parameterizations are required to represent them in both current‐ and next‐generation climate models. We present a quantitative evaluation of several important assumptions used in both mass‐flux and Assumed‐PDF Higher‐Order Closure parameterizations of shallow convection. We use large‐eddy simulations (LESs) of four different shallow convection regimes as benchmarks and apply a q t (total moisture)– w (vertical velocity) quadrant analysis technique to identify the “coherent structures” of moist and dry up/down‐drafts. The statistics of these coherent structures and the environment are then used to evaluate commonly used assumptions in mass‐flux parameterizations related to (a) the convective downdrafts and (b) the subplume variability of convective updrafts. For quantitative evaluation of the PDF closure used in AP‐HOCs, we perform offline calculations with the PDF closure used in the Cloud Layers Unified By Bi‐normals and the Simplified Higher‐Order Closure schemes by supplying the closure with statistical quantities directly calculated from the LESs. Then, the impact of parameterization assumptions embedded in the PDF closure in the same two categories is analyzed and understood through comparisons of the output from the closure with the statistics of the moist and dry up/down‐drafts from the LESs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Applications of emulation and Bayesian methods in heavy-ion physics

Abstract Heavy-ion collisions provide a window into the properties of many-body systems of deconfined quarks and gluons. Understanding the collective properties of quarks and gluons is possible by comparing models of heavy-ion collisions to measurements of the distribution of particles produced at the end of the collisions. These model-to-data comparisons are extremely challenging, however, because of the complexity of the models, the large amount of experimental data, and their uncertainties. Bayesian inference provides a rigorous statistical framework to constrain the properties of nuclear matter by systematically comparing models and measurements. This review covers model emulation and Bayesian methods as applied to model-to-data comparisons in heavy-ion collisions. Replacing the model outputs (observables) with Gaussian process emulators is key to the Bayesian approach currently used in the field, and both current uses of emulators and related recent developments are reviewed. The general principles of Bayesian inference are then discussed along with other Bayesian methods, followed by a systematic comparison of seven recent Bayesian analyses that studied quark-gluon plasma properties, such as the shear and bulk viscosities. The latter comparison is used to illustrate sources of differences in analyses, and what it can teach us for future studies.

Paquet, Jean-François (ORCID:0000000187368171)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Material Control & Accounting Modeling Developments for a Generic TRISO Fuel Fabrication Facility

The Material Protection, Accounting, and Control Technologies (MPACT) program utilizes modeling and simulation to assess Material Control and Accountability (MC&A) concerns for a variety of nuclear facilities. The Sandia National Laboratories (SNL)-developed Fissile Facility Flow Modeler (F3M) and the Material Accountancy Performance Indicator Toolkit (MAPIT) have historically provided MPACT with the capability to analyze MC&A approaches for nuclear facilities to determine that these facilities meet regulatory requirements. In FY25, improvements on the application of the F3M and MAPIT tools to simulate a generic TRi-structural ISOtropic (TRISO) fuel fabrication facility were successfully completed. The generic TRISO fuel fabrication F3M model captures the entire TRISO fuel fabrication process and is adaptable to any final TRISO fuel form, including spherical pebbles and cylindrical compacts loaded into graphite prismatic blocks. Comprehensive F3M/MAPIT functionality for the generic TRISO fuel fabrication model has been demonstrated. This modeling framework can be applied to support the U.S. Department of Energy and domestic nuclear industry stakeholders in developing MC&A approaches for advanced fuel fabrication facilities via statistical tests that demonstrate compliance to regulatory requirements.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Optimizing LSST observing strategy for weak lensing systematics

ABSTRACT The Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) survey will provide unprecedented statistical power for measurements of dark energy. Consequently, controlling systematic uncertainties is becoming more important than ever. The LSST observing strategy will affect the statistical uncertainty and systematics control for many science cases; here, we focus on weak lensing (WL) systematics. The fact that the LSST observing strategy involves hundreds of visits to the same sky area provides new opportunities for systematics mitigation. We explore these opportunities by testing how different dithering strategies (pointing offsets and rotational angle of the camera in different exposures) affect additive WL shear systematics on a baseline operational simulation, using the ρ-statistics formalism. Some dithering strategies improve systematics control at the end of the survey by a factor of up to ∼3–4 better than others. We find that a random translational dithering strategy, applied with random rotational dithering at every filter change, is the most effective of those strategies tested in this work at averaging down systematics. Adopting this dithering algorithm, we explore the effect of varying the area of the survey footprint, exposure time, number of exposures in a visit, and exposure to the Galactic plane. We find that any change that increases the average number of exposures (in filters relevant to WL) reduces the additive shear systematics. Some ways to achieve this increase may not be favorable for the WL statistical constraining power or for other probes, and we explore the relative trade-offs between these options given constraints on the overall survey parameters.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Limited potential of irrigation to prevent potato yield losses in Germany under climate change

Climate models project higher temperatures and a substantial net water deficit during the summer months over Germany until the end of the 21st century. The agricultural sector is particularly vulnerable to changing weather and climate conditions. In this study, we examine the role of irrigation for potato yields as a climate change adaptation measure in Northeast Lower Saxony (Germany). The region represents the largest irrigated area in Germany and is one of the main growing areas of potatoes. We develop a statistical multivariate regression model to investigate whether regional climate and irrigation data at the monthly and county level are suitable to describe potato yield variability from 1978 to 2018. Irrigation is estimated based on the climatic water balance and crop water demand. These estimates are calibrated against irrigation data from local agencies to account for realistic monthly water withdrawals. We analyze future yield changes based on climate model projections for the 21st century and different irrigation scenarios. We find that the potato yield will decrease significantly by 18% on average until 2050 with climate projection uncertainty of ±6.4% under the high emission scenario RCP 8.5 and without irrigation. Irrigation at current levels could compensate for about 54% of these yield losses. Doubling the amount of irrigation minimizes yield losses by as much as 80%. Under the low (middle) emission scenario RCP 2.6 (RCP 4.5), potato yield are projected to decrease moderately by 4.5% ± 3.4% (5.4% ± 2.8%) with irrigation at current levels. We show that the yield losses mainly originate from higher temperatures during the summer. Our analysis indicates that the capacity of irrigation to minimize yield losses is limited. Strengthening climate change mitigation efforts may be more effective in preventing yield losses. However, the effect of elevated CO 2 might buffer the high yield losses, especially in RCP 8.5. The studies supports farmers and decision makers in assessing future risks in potato yields. It can guide policymakers in allocating economic resources to cope with climate change.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Assessing tension metrics with dark energy survey and Planck data

ABSTRACT Quantifying tensions – inconsistencies amongst measurements of cosmological parameters by different experiments – has emerged as a crucial part of modern cosmological data analysis. Statistically significant tensions between two experiments or cosmological probes may indicate new physics extending beyond the standard cosmological model and need to be promptly identified. We apply several tension estimators proposed in the literature to the dark energy survey (DES) large-scale structure measurement and Planck cosmic microwave background data. We first evaluate the responsiveness of these metrics to an input tension artificially introduced between the two, using synthetic DES data. We then apply the metrics to the comparison of Planck and actual DES Year 1 data. We find that the parameter differences, Eigentension, and Suspiciousness metrics all yield similar results on both simulated and real data, while the Bayes ratio is inconsistent with the rest due to its dependence on the prior volume. Using these metrics, we calculate the tension between DES Year 1 3 × 2pt and Planck, finding the surveys to be in ∼2.3σ tension under the ΛCDM paradigm. This suite of metrics provides a toolset for robustly testing tensions in the DES Year 3 data and beyond.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗