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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

NASA NTRS2010

Modeling and Performance Considerations for Automated Fault Isolation in Complex Systems

The purpose of this paper is to document the modeling considerations and performance metrics that were examined in the development of a large-scale Fault Detection, Isolation and Recovery (FDIR) system. The FDIR system is envisioned to perform health management functions for both a launch vehicle and the ground systems that support the vehicle during checkout and launch countdown by using suite of complimentary software tools that alert operators to anomalies and failures in real-time. The FDIR team members developed a set of operational requirements for the models that would be used for fault isolation and worked closely with the vendor of the software tools selected for fault isolation to ensure that the software was able to meet the requirements. Once the requirements were established, example models of sufficient complexity were used to test the performance of the software. The results of the performance testing demonstrated the need for enhancements to the software in order to meet the demands of the full-scale ground and vehicle FDIR system. The paper highlights the importance of the development of operational requirements and preliminary performance testing as a strategy for identifying deficiencies in highly scalable systems and rectifying those deficiencies before they imperil the success of the project

Ferrell, Bob↗

DOE OSTI2022

DPC Direct Disposal Postclosure Thermal Modeling

Performance of geologic radioactive waste repositories depends on near-field and far-field processes, including km-scale flow and transport in engineered and natural barriers, that may require simulations of up to 1 M years of regulatory period. For a relatively short time span (less than 1000 years), the thermohydro-mechanical-chemical (THMC) coupled processes caused by heat from the waste package will influence near-field multiphase flow, chemical/reactive transport, and mechanical behaviors in the repository system. This study integrates the heat-driven perturbations in thermo-hydro-mechanical characteristics into thermo-hydro-chemical simulations using PFLOTRAN to reduce dimensionality and improve computational efficiency by implementing functions of stress-dependent permeability and saturation-temperature-dependent thermal conductivity. These process couplings are developed for spent nuclear fuel in dual-purpose canisters in two different hypothetical repositories: a shale repository and a salt repository.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2026

Informing Robust Functional Relationship Benchmarks: An Evaluation of the Temperature Sensitivity of Ecosystem Respiration Across the Arctic-Boreal Region

During land model development, simulated carbon dynamics are often benchmarked against observational data sets to evaluate model performance. Functional relationship benchmarks are the relationship between a driving variable (e.g., temperature) and a response variable (e.g., ecosystem respiration) and are a promising tool for assessing model performance by evaluating modeled sensitivities to changing environmental conditions. However, observed functional relationships can be influenced by choices made during data collection and throughout the benchmarking process, impacting the inferred skill of land models. To avoid misrepresenting a model's true performance, it is necessary to systematically evaluate best practices when constructing functional relationship benchmarks. We developed a set of guidelines for constructing functional relationship benchmarks, considering the choice of data set, number of daily observations, temporal extent, and temporal resolution across Alaska and Canada over a 20-year period from 2001 to 2020. The temperature sensitivity of ecosystem respiration from observations, evaluated through an apparent Q 10 , is highly variable both spatially and as a result of the data processing approach applied in the benchmark formation. When benchmarking 13 models from the Warming Permafrost Model Intercomparison Project (WrPMIP), the range in inferred model skill is substantially impacted by the choices applied in constructing functional relationship benchmarks. The inferred performance of a given model is most sensitive to the number of daily observations and temporal extent, followed by choice of benchmark data set and temporal averaging. Results from this analysis can guide the development of consistent and robust functional relationships for future model evaluation studies.

Poe, Jeralyn [Northern Arizona University, Flagsta↗

DOE OSTI2026

Observation of quantum effects on radiation reaction in strong fields

Radiation reaction, the force experienced by an accelerated charge due to radiation emission, has long been the subject of extensive theoretical and experimental research. Experimental verification of a quantum, strong-field description of radiation reaction is fundamentally important, and has wide-ranging implications for astrophysics, laser-driven particle acceleration, next-generation particle colliders and inverse-Compton photon sources for medical and industrial applications. However, the difficulty of accessing regimes where strong field and quantum effects dominate inhibited previous efforts to observe quantum radiation reaction in charged particle dynamics with high significance. We report the first high significance (> 5σ) observation of strong-field radiation reaction on electron spectra where quantum effects are substantial. We obtain the first, quantitative, strong evidence favouring the quantum-continuous and quantum-stochastic models over the classical model; the quantum models perform comparably. The lower electron energy losses predicted by the quantum models accounts for their improved performance. Model comparison was performed using a novel Bayesian framework which has widespread utility for laser-particle collision experiments, including those utilising conventional accelerators, where some collision parameters cannot be measured directly.

Los, Eva E. [Imperial College London (United Kingd↗

NASA NTRS1998

Model Engine Performance Measurement From Force Balance Instrumentation

A large scale model representative of a low-noise, high bypass ratio turbofan engine was tested for acoustics and performance in the NASA Lewis 9- by 15-Foot Low-Speed Wind Tunnel. This test was part of NASA's continuing Advanced Subsonic Technology Noise Reduction Program. The low tip speed fan, nacelle, and an un-powered core passage (with core inlet guide vanes) were simulated. The fan blades and hub are mounted on a rotating thrust and torque balance. The nacelle, bypass duct stators, and core passage are attached to a six component force balance. The two balance forces, when corrected for internal pressure tares, measure the total thrust-minus-drag of the engine simulator. Corrected for scaling and other effects, it is basically the same force that the engine supports would feel, operating at similar conditions. A control volume is shown and discussed, identifying the various force components of the engine simulator thrust and definitions of net thrust. Several wind tunnel runs with nearly the same hardware installed are compared, to identify the repeatability of the measured thrust-minus-drag. Other wind tunnel runs, with hardware changes that affected fan performance, are compared to the baseline configuration, and the thrust and torque effects are shown. Finally, a thrust comparison between the force balance and nozzle gross thrust methods is shown, and both yield very similar results.

Jeracki, Robert J.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Wind/Wave Testing of a 1:70-Scale Performance-Matched Model of the IEA Wind 15 MW Reference Wind Turbine with Real-Time ROSCO Control and Floating Feedback

Experimental results from the Floating Offshore-wind and Controls Advanced Laboratory (FOCAL) experimental program, which tested a performance-matched model of the IEA Wind 15 MW Reference Turbine on a 1:70 scale floating semisubmersible platform, are compared with OpenFAST simulations. Four experimental campaigns were performed, and data from the fourth campaign, which focused on wind and wave testing of the scaled floating wind turbine system, are considered. Simulations of wave-only, wind-only, and wind/wave environments are performed in OpenFAST, and results for key metrics are compared with the experiment. Performance of the real-time Reference OpenSource COntroller (ROSCO) in above-rated wind conditions, including the effects of the floating feedback loop, are investigated. Results show good agreement in mean values for key metrics, and hydrodynamic effects are matched well. Differences in the surge resonant behavior of the platform are identified and discussed. The effect of the controller and floating feedback loop is evident in both the experiment and OpenFAST, showing significant reduction in platform pitch response and tower base bending load near the platform pitch natural frequency.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

2023 Artemis Crew Health and Performance System Model Development

While the NASA Human Research Program (HRP) utilizes a Crew Health and Performance (CHP) System to represent all the Agency’s efforts to ensure the health and performance of NASA astronauts, there is no shared mental model of a CHP system at NASA. Some groups may consider a CHP system to be only a medical kit, while others may not be using the concept at all. To facilitate the integration of functions and capabilities to ensure astronaut health and performance during vehicle development, HRP has proposed a CHP Shared Mental Model derived from the NASA Human Health, Medical, and Performance Spaceflight Standards (NASA-STD-3001 Vol.1/Vol.2). [1] Even though many vehicle, ground, and communication systems as well as mission operations are modeled for the Artemis Campaigns, no mission level CHP system model was created to achieve the intent of the HRP CHP Shared Mental Model. The lack of this model renders it difficult to visualize and understand how the many programs work together to provide the necessary cross program functions and capabilities to ensure the health and performance of the crew throughout an Artemis mission. For this purpose, the Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) element of HRP developed a CHP system model for the Artemis III and IV missions to provide a view of how each program contributes to and interacts with the overall CHP system. To develop the 2023 Artemis CHP system model, ExMC leveraged existing data and models from the Moon to Mars Program Office, the Office of the Chief Health and Medical Officer (OCHMO) and the Orion, Gateway, Extravehicular Activity and Human Surface Mobility (EHP) and Human Landing System (HLS) programs. By using a Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) approach, existing requirements, functions, and concepts of operations were combined to create a single system model focused on representing CHP from the launch to the return to Earth segments of the Artemis III and IV missions. Additionally, by incorporating the HRP Systems Platform for Aggregating and Relating Capabilities, or SPARC tool, the data from the programs was also related back to the 2nd volume of the NASA Human Health, Medical, and Performance Spaceflight Standard (NASA-STD-3001, Vol.2) and the human system risks identified by the Human System Risk Board (HSRB). The first version of the 2023 Artemis CHP system model was baselined in Fall of 2023 after the model was demonstrated to be a potentially useful tool for systems engineers integrating CHP capabilities in vehicle development as well as members of the Health and Medical Technical Authority providing oversight of those programs. The model may also be useful to any stakeholder of astronaut health and performance by providing insights on how an Artemis mission satisfies the NASA Human Health, Medical, and Performance Spaceflight Standards as well as how they mitigate the HSRB Human System Risks. This presentation highlights how the model was developed and the possible benefits of the model. [1] NASA HRP (2022), Crew Health and Performance System Whitepaper

Systems engineering↗

DOE OSTI2022

Construction of Women’s All-Around Speed Skating Event Performance Prediction Model and Competition Strategy Analysis Based on Machine Learning Algorithms

Introduction Accurately predicting the competitive performance of elite athletes is an essential prerequisite for formulating competitive strategies. Women’s all-around speed skating event consists of four individual subevents, and the competition system is complex and challenging to make accurate predictions on their performance. Objective The present study aims to explore the feasibility and effectiveness of machine learning algorithms for predicting the performance of women’s all-around speed skating event and provide effective training and competition strategies. Methods The data, consisting of 16 seasons of world-class women’s all-around speed skating competition results, used in the present study came from the International Skating Union (ISU). According to the competition rules, distinct features are filtered using lasso regression, and a 5,000 m race model and a medal model are built using a fivefold cross-validation method. Results The results showed that the support vector machine model was the most stable among the 5,000 m race and the medal models, with the highest AUC (0.86, 0.81, respectively). Furthermore, 3,000 m points are the main characteristic factors that decide whether an athlete can qualify for the final. The 11th lap of the 5,000 m, the second lap of the 500 m, and the fourth lap of the 1,500 m are the main characteristic factors that affect the athlete’s ability to win medals. Conclusion Compared with logistic regression, random forest, K-nearest neighbor, naive Bayes, neural network, support vector machine is a more viable algorithm to establish the performance prediction model of women’s all-around speed skating event; excellent performance in the 3,000 m event can facilitate athletes to advance to the final, and athletes with outstanding performance in the 500 m event are more likely competitive for medals.

Liu, Meng↗

NASA NTRS1982

Modeling lateral acceleration effects on pilot performance

Attendant to the direct side force maneuver of a Vectored Force Fighter is the transverse acceleration imposed on the pilot. This lateral acceleration (Gy), when combind with a positive Gz stress, is a potential source of pilot tracking performance impairment. A research effort to investigate these performance decrements includes experimental as well as anaytical pilot performance modeling using the Optimal Control Model.

Korn, J.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Orion Spacecraft MMOD Protection Design and Assessment

A first-principals, semi-empirical ballistic performance model has been developed for porous ceramics. Lightweight thermal protection systems protect the crew and vehicle of orbital and exo-orbital missions from the intense heat of atmospheric reentry. To maintain low launch weights these materials are their own protection from space hazards like orbital debris and meteoroids. A ballistic performance model is described here that models the performance under a variety of impact conditions. Using the model described here relative to an energy scaled model results in a significantly reduced prediction of full penetration of this material at ISS orbital parameters.

Miller, Joshua E.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Graphical User Interface for Simulink Integrated Performance Analysis Model

The J-2X Engine (built by Pratt & Whitney Rocketdyne,) in the Upper Stage of the Ares I Crew Launch Vehicle, will only start within a certain range of temperature and pressure for Liquid Hydrogen and Liquid Oxygen propellants. The purpose of the Simulink Integrated Performance Analysis Model is to verify that in all reasonable conditions the temperature and pressure of the propellants are within the required J-2X engine start boxes. In order to run the simulation, test variables must be entered at all reasonable values of parameters such as heat leak and mass flow rate. To make this testing process as efficient as possible in order to save the maximum amount of time and money, and to show that the J-2X engine will start when it is required to do so, a graphical user interface (GUI) was created to allow the input of values to be used as parameters in the Simulink Model, without opening or altering the contents of the model. The GUI must allow for test data to come from Microsoft Excel files, allow those values to be edited before testing, place those values into the Simulink Model, and get the output from the Simulink Model. The GUI was built using MATLAB, and will run the Simulink simulation when the Simulate option is activated. After running the simulation, the GUI will construct a new Microsoft Excel file, as well as a MATLAB matrix file, using the output values for each test of the simulation so that they may graphed and compared to other values.

Durham, R. Caitlyn↗

NASA NTRS2010

Development of an Instrument Performance Simulation Capability for an Infrared Correlation Radiometer for Troposheric Carbon Monoxide Measurements From Geo

We present the progress toward an analytical performance model of a 2.3 micron infrared correlation radiometer (IRCRg) prototype subsystem for a future geostationary space-borne instrument. The prototype is designed specifically to measure carbon monoxide (CO) from geostationary orbit. NASA's Geostationary Coastal and Air Pollution Events (GEO-CAPE) mission, one of the United States Earth Science and Applications Decadal Survey missions, specifies the use of infrared correlation radiometry to measure CO in two spectral regions for this mission. GEO-CAPE will use the robust IRCR measurement technique at geostationary orbit, nearly 50 times farther away than the Terra/MOPITT orbit, to determine hourly changes in CO across a continental domain. The abundance of CO in Earth's troposphere directly affects the concentration of hydroxyl, which regulates the lifetimes of many tropospheric pollutants. In addition, CO is a precursor to ozone formation; CO is used as a tracer to study the transport of global and regional pollutants; and CO is used as an indicator of both natural and anthropogenic air pollution sources and sinks. We have structured our development project to enable rapid evaluation of future spaceborne instrument designs. The project is part of NASA's Instrument Incubator Program. We describe the architecture of the performance model and the planned evaluation of the performance model using laboratory test data.

OsowskiNeil, Doreen↗

DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of CMIP6 models in simulating the statistics of extreme precipitation over Eastern Africa

We report the Eastern Africa region experiences frequent extreme precipitation events that can cause destruction of property and environment, and loss of lives. Thus, there is a need to understand how these events may change in the future and how well the global climate models that are used to make projections can simulate precipitation extremes in this region before they can be used in downscaling or flood and drought impact assessment studies. In this work, we evaluated the ability of sixteen Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models to simulate present-day precipitation extremes over the Eastern Africa region during the two rainy seasons (March–May and September–November). We used nine extreme precipitation indices (including seven (one) indices of wet (dry) extremes) defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices. The CMIP6 models were evaluated against two gridded observation datasets: Global Precipitation Climatology Project One-Degree Daily Dataset and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis 3B42. Three model performance metrics (percentage bias, normalized root-mean-square error, and pattern correlation coefficient) were employed to further assess the strengths and weakness of the models. Our results show that the multi-model ensemble mean generally provides a better representation of observed precipitation and related extremes compared to individual models when considering all metrics and seasons. Several consistent biases are evident across CMIP6 models, which tend to overestimate the total-wet day precipitation and consecutive wet days, and underestimate very wet days and maximum 5-day precipitation in both seasons. Furthermore, no single model consistently performs best, model performance varies with the season and index under consideration and is generally independent of horizontal resolution.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRS1997

Design, Modeling and Performance Optimization of a Novel Rotary Piezoelectric Motor

This work has demonstrated a proof of concept for a torsional inchworm type motor. The prototype motor has shown that piezoelectric stack actuators can be used for rotary inchworm motor. The discrete linear motion of piezoelectric stacks can be converted into rotary stepping motion. The stacks with its high force and displacement output are suitable actuators for use in piezoelectric motor. The designed motor is capable of delivering high torque and speed. Critical issues involving the design and operation of piezoelectric motors were studied. The tolerance between the contact shoes and the rotor has proved to be very critical to the performance of the motor. Based on the prototype motor, a waveform optimization scheme was proposed and implemented to improve the performance of the motor. The motor was successfully modeled in MATLAB. The model closely represents the behavior of the prototype motor. Using the motor model, the input waveforms were successfully optimized to improve the performance of the motor in term of speed, torque, power and precision. These optimized waveforms drastically improve the speed of the motor at different frequencies and loading conditions experimentally. The optimized waveforms also increase the level of precision of the motor. The use of the optimized waveform is a break-away from the traditional use of sinusoidal and square waves as the driving signals. This waveform optimization scheme can be applied to any inchworm motors to improve their performance. The prototype motor in this dissertation as a proof of concept was designed to be robust and large. Future motor can be designed much smaller and more efficient with lessons learned from the prototype motor.

Duong, Khanh A.↗

NASA NTRS2020

A Machine Learning-Based Cloud Detection and Thermodynamic Phase Classification Algorithm using Passive Spectral Observations

We trained two Random Forest (RF) machine-learning models for cloud mask and cloud thermodynamic phase detection using spectral observations from VIIRS on Suomi NPP (SNPP). Observations from CALIOP were carefully selected to provide reference labels. The two RF models were trained for all-day and daytime-only conditions using a 4-year collocated VIIRS/CALIOP dataset from 2013 to 2016. Due to the orbit difference, the collocated CALIOP and SNPP VIIRS training samples cover a broad viewing zenith angle range, which is a great benefit to overall model performance. The all-day model uses 3 VIIRS infrared (IR) bands (8.6,11, and 12 μm) and the daytime model uses 5 Near-IR (NIR) and Shortwave-IR (SWIR) bands (0.86, 1.24, 1.38, 1.64 and 2.25 μm) together with the 3 IR bands to detect clear, liquid water, and ice cloud pixels. Up to 7 surface types, namely, ocean/water, forest, cropland, grassland, snow/ice, barren/desert, and shrubland, were considered separately to enhance performance for both models. Detection of cloudy pixels and thermodynamic phase with the two RF models were compared against collocated CALIOP products from 2017. It is shown that, with a conservative screening process that excludes the most challenging cloudy pixels for passive remote sensing, the two RF models have high accuracy rates in comparison with the CALIOP reference for both cloud detection and thermodynamic phase. Other existing SNPP VIIRS and Aqua MODIS cloud mask and phase products are also evaluated, with results showing that the two RF models and the MODIS MYD06 optical property phase product are the top 3 algorithms with respect to lidar observations during the daytime. During the nighttime, the RF all-day model works best for both cloud detection and phase, in particular for pixels over snow/ice surfaces. The present RF models can be extended to other similar passive instruments if training samples can be collected from CALIOP or other lidars. However, the quality of reference labels and potential sampling issues that may impact model performance would need further attention.

cloud detection↗

DOE OSTI2024

Accurate and Data‐Efficient Micro X‐ray Diffraction Phase Identification Using Multitask Learning: Application to Hydrothermal Fluids

Traditional analysis of highly distorted micro X‐ray diffraction (μ‐XRD) patterns from hydrothermal fluid environments is a time‐consuming process, often requiring substantial data preprocessing and labeled experimental data. Herein, the potential of deep learning with a multitask learning (MTL) architecture to overcome these limitations is demonstrated. MTL models are trained to identify phase information in μ‐XRD patterns, minimizing the need for labeled experimental data and masking preprocessing steps. Notably, MTL models show superior accuracy compared to binary classification convolutional neural networks. Additionally, introducing a tailored cross‐entropy loss function improves MTL model performance. Most significantly, MTL models tuned to analyze raw and unmasked XRD patterns achieve close performance to models analyzing preprocessed data, with minimal accuracy differences. This work indicates that advanced deep learning architectures like MTL can automate arduous data handling tasks, streamline the analysis of distorted XRD patterns, and reduce the reliance on labor‐intensive experimental datasets.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS2001

Future Modeling Needs in Pulse Detonation Rocket Engine Design

This paper presents a performance model rocket engine design that takes advantage of pulse detonation to generate thrust. The contents include: 1) Introduction to the Pulse Detonation Rocket Engine (PDRE); 2) PDRE modeling issues and options; 3) Discussion of the PDRE Performance Workshop held at Marshall Space Flight Center; and 4) Identify needs involving an open performance model for Pulse Detonation Rocket Engines. This paper is in viewgraph form.

Meade, Brian↗

NASA NTRS1995

A Performance Prediction Model for a Fault-Tolerant Computer During Recovery and Restoration

The modeling and design of a fault-tolerant multiprocessor system is addressed. Of interest is the behavior of the system during recovery and restoration after a fault has occurred. The multiprocessor systems are based on the Algorithm to Architecture Mapping Model (ATAMM) and the fault considered is the death of a processor. The developed model is useful in the determination of performance bounds of the system during recovery and restoration. The performance bounds include time to recover from the fault, time to restore the system, and determination of any permanent delay in the input to output latency after the system has regained steady state. Implementation of an ATAMM based computer was developed for a four-processor generic VHSIC spaceborne computer (GVSC) as the target system. A simulation of the GVSC was also written on the code used in the ATAMM Multicomputer Operating System (AMOS). The simulation is used to verify the new model for tracking the propagation of the delay through the system and predicting the behavior of the transient state of recovery and restoration. The model is shown to accurately predict the transient behavior of an ATAMM based multicomputer during recovery and restoration.

Obando, Rodrigo A.↗