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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 415 records · Page 23
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Molecular and biochemical characterization of rice developed through conventional integration of nDart1-0 transposon gene

Mutations, the genetic variations in genomic sequences, play an important role in molecular biology and biotechnology. During DNA replication or meiosis, one of the mutations is transposons or jumping genes. An indigenous transposon nDart1-0 was successfully introduced into local indica cultivar Basmati-370 from transposon-tagged line viz., GR-7895 (japonica genotype) through conventional breeding technique, successive backcrossing. Plants from segregating populationsshowed variegated phenotypes were tagged as BM-37 mutants. Blast analysis of the sequence data revealed that the GTP-binding protein, located on the BAC clone OJ1781_H11 of chromosome 5, contained an insertion of DNA transposon nDart1-0. The nDart1-0 has “A” at position 254 bp, whereas nDart1 homologs have “G”, which efficiently distinguishes nDart1-0 from its homologs. The histological analysis revealed that the chloroplast of mesophyll cells in BM-37 was disrupted with reduction in size of starch granules and higher number of osmophillic plastoglobuli, which resulted in decreased chlorophyll contents and carotenoids, gas exchange parameters (Pn, g, E, Ci), and reduced expression level of genes associated with chlorophyll biosynthesis, photosynthesis and chloroplast development. Along with the rise of GTP protein, the salicylic acid (SA) and gibberellic acid (GA) and antioxidant contents(SOD) and MDA levels significantly enhanced, while, the cytokinins (CK), ascorbate peroxidase (APX), catalase (CAT), total flavanoid contents (TFC) and total phenolic contents (TPC) significantly reduced in BM-37 mutant plants as compared with WT plants. These results support the notion that GTP-binding proteins influence the process underlying chloroplast formation. Therefore, it is anticipated that to combat biotic or abiotic stress conditions, the nDart1-0 tagged mutant (BM-37) of Basmati-370 would be beneficial.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Mapping brucellosis risk in Kenya and its implications for control strategies in sub-Saharan Africa

In Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), effective brucellosis control is limited, in part, by the lack of long-term commitments by governments to control the disease and the absence of reliable national human and livestock population-based data to inform policies. Therefore, we conducted a study to establish the national prevalence and develop a risk map for Brucella spp. in cattle to contribute to plans to eliminate the disease in Kenya by the year 2040. We randomly generated 268 geolocations and distributed them across Kenya, proportionate to the area of each of the five agroecological zones and the associated cattle population. Cattle herds closest to each selected geolocation were identified for sampling. Up to 25 cattle were sampled per geolocation and a semi-structured questionnaire was administered to their owners. We tested 6,593 cattle samples for Brucella immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibodies using an Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). We assessed potential risk factors and performed spatial analyses and prevalence mapping using approximate Bayesian inference implemented via the integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) method. The national Brucella spp. prevalence was 6.8% (95% CI: 6.2–7.4%). Exposure levels varied significantly between agro-ecological zones, with a high of 8.5% in the very arid zone with the lowest agricultural potential relative to a low of 0.0% in the agro-alpine zone with the highest agricultural potential. Additionally, seroprevalence increased with herd size, and the odds of seropositivity were significantly higher for females and adult animals than for males or calves. Similarly, animals with a history of abortion, or with multiple reproductive syndromes had higher seropositivity than those without. At the herd level, the risk of Brucella spp. transmission was higher in larger herds, and herds with a history of reproductive problems such as abortion, giving birth to weak calves, or having swollen testes. Geographic localities with high Brucella seroprevalence occurred in northern, eastern, and southern regions of Kenya all primarily characterized by semi-arid or arid agro-ecological zones dominated by livestock pastoralism interspersed with vast areas with mixed livestock-wildlife systems. The large spatial extent of our survey provides compelling evidence for the widespread geographical distribution of brucellosis risk across Kenya in a manner easily understandable for policymakers. Our findings can provide a basis for risk-stratified pilot studies aiming to investigate the cost-effectiveness and efficacy of singular and combined preventive intervention strategies that seek to inform Kenya’s Brucellosis Control Policy.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Multireference diffusion Monte Carlo reaches 2D materials

Abstract Quantum confinement in 2D materials strongly enhances electronic correlation effects. Therefore, predicting the properties of these unique materials, with both a high level of accuracy and computational efficiency, without relying on adjustable parameters or functionals, remains an outstanding theoretical challenge. The majority of theoretical studies are based on the approximations of density functional theory (DFT). The reliability of DFT predictions are heavily dependent on the choice of an approximated exchange-correlation functional. Here, we estimate the magnitude of impact of correlation on the total energy for the quintessential 2D material, graphene, by performing and comparing state-of-the-art selected CI and quantum Monte Carlo extrapolated calculations for a single unit cell at the$$\Gamma$$point. We demonstrate that Self-Healing Diffusion Monte Carlo (SHDMC) obtains a very compact, but high-quality wavefunction for this system that lacks the strong basis set dependence displayed by state of the art quantum chemistry methods. The SHDMC wavefunction is of higher quality compared to that obtained from sCI, in the same orbital basis, while being$$\sim$$ 1000 times smaller in terms of determinant count compared to sCI. We also demonstrate that extrapolating SHDMC results to the infinite determinant limit compares extremely well with complete basis set extrapolated sCI. Our work paves the way for future validation of SHDMC applied to challenging 2D materials.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2025

National serosurvey and risk mapping reveal widespread distribution of Coxiella burnetii in Kenya

Coxiella burnetii, the causative agent of Q fever, is an emerging pathogen that has the potential to cause severe chronic infections in animals and humans worldwide. The detrimental impact on public health is projected to be higher in the low- and middle-income countries given their lower capacity to sustain effective surveillance and response measures. We implemented a national serosurvey of cattle in Kenya to map the spatial distribution of the pathogen. The study used serum samples that were collected from randomly selected cattle in different ago-ecological zones across the country. These samples were screened for the pathogen using PrioCHECK Ruminant Q Fever AB Plate ELISA kit. The laboratory findings were analyzed using INLA package to identify risk factors for C. burnetii exposure from herd- and animal-level factors, area, and bioclimatic datasets accessed from online databases. A total of 6,593 cattle were recruited for the study; of these, 7.9% (95% CI; 7.2–8.5) were seropositive. Outputs from the multivariable analysis revealed that the animal age and some of the geographical variables including wind speed, area under shrubs and “petric calcisols” type of soil were significantly associated with C. burnetii seropositivity. Being a calf, weaner or subadult was associated with lower odds of exposure compared to being an adult by 0.24 (credibility interval: 2.5% and 97.5%), 0.41 (0.30–0.55) and 0.51 (0.38–0.69), respectively. In addition, a unit increase in the wind speed increased the odds of C. burnetii seropositivity by 1.27 (1.05–1.52) while an increase on the land area under shrubs was associated with lower odds of exposure (0.67 [0.47–0.69]). The effect of petric calcisols was non-linear; an increase of the land area with this soil type was associated with an exponential increase in C. burnetii seropositivity. This study provides new data on C. burnetii seroprevalence, information of its risk factors and a prevalence map that can be used for C. burnetii risk surveillance and control. The identification of environmental risk factors for C. burnetii exposure, and the increasing awareness of the zoonotic potential of the pathogen, calls for the need to enhance the existing collaborations for the surveillance and control of C. burnetii in line with the One Health framework. The evidence generated on the potential role of environmental factors can also be used to design nature-based interventions, such as replacement of vegetation in denuded areas, to reduce potential for the aerosolization of the pathogen. Livestock vaccination in the hotspots would also reduce animal infections and hence the contamination of the environment.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Seawater Desalination Derived Entirely from Ocean Biomass

Solar-driven interfacial evaporation shows great prospects for seawater desalination with its rapid fast evaporation rate and high photothermal conversion efficiency. Here, a sustainable, biodegradable, non-toxic, and highly efficient full ocean biomass-based solar-driven evaporator is reported, which is composed of chitosan (CS) hydrogel as the hydratable skeleton and cuttlefish ink (CI) as the photothermal material. Under solar irradiation, the cuttlefish ink powder harvests solar energy and heats the surrounding water. Simultaneously, the water in the three-dimensional network of chitosan hydrogel is rapidly replenished by the interconnected porous structure and the hydrophilic functional groups attached to the polymer chains. With its enlarged evaporation surface, high solar absorptance, adequate water transportation, good salt drainage, and heat localization, the CI/CS-based evaporator achieves a remarkable evaporation rate of 4.1 kg m-2 h-1 under one sun irradiance (1 kW m-2) with high-quality freshwater yields. This full ocean biomass-based evaporator with abundant raw material availability provides new possibilities for an efficient, stable, sustainable, and environmentally friendly solar evaporator with guaranteed water quality.

BIOMASS FUELS,INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND AN↗
DOE OSTI2022

Relativistic nonorthogonal configuration interaction: application to L 2,3 -edge X-ray spectroscopy

In this article, we develop a relativistic exact-two-component nonorthogonal configuration interaction (X2C-NOCI) for computing L-edge X-ray spectra. This article to our knowledge is the first time NOCI has been used for relativistic wave functions. A set of molecular complexes, including SF 6 , SiCl 4 and [FeCl 6 ] 3– , are used to demonstrate the accuracy and computational scaling of the X2C-NOCI method. Here, our results suggest that X2C-NOCI is able to satisfactorily capture the main features of the L 2,3 -edge X-ray absorption spectra. Excitations from the core require a large amount of orbital relaxation to yield reasonable energies and X2C-NOCI allows us to treat orbital optimization explicitly. However, the cost of computing the nonorthogonal coupling is higher than in conventional CI. Here, we propose an improved integral screening using overlap-scaled density combined with a continuous measure of the generalized Slater–Condon rules that allows us to estimate if an element is zero before attempting a two-electron integral contraction.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Tracking the reaction networks of acetaldehyde oxide and glyoxal oxide Criegee intermediates in the ozone-assisted oxidation reaction of crotonaldehyde

The reaction of unsaturated compounds with ozone (O 3 ) is recognized to lead to the formation of Criegee intermediates (CIs), which play a key role in controlling the atmospheric budget of hydroxyl radicals and secondary organic aerosols. The reaction network of two CIs with different functionality, i.e. acetaldehyde oxide (CH 3 CHOO) and glyoxal oxide (CHOCHOO) formed in the ozone-assisted oxidation reaction of crotanaldehyde (CA), is investigated over a temperature range between 390 K and 840 K in an atmospheric pressure jet-stirred reactor (JSR) at a residence time of 1.3 s, stoichiometry of 0.5 with a mixture of 1% crotonaldehyde, 10% O 2 , at an fixed ozone concentration of 1000 ppm and 89% Ar dilution. Molecular-beam mass spectrometry in conjunction with single photon tunable synchrotron vacuum-ultraviolet (VUV) radiation is used to identify elusive intermediates by means of experimental photoionization energy scans and ab initio threshold energy calculations for isomer identification. Addition of ozone (1000 ppm) is observed to trigger the oxidation of CA already at 390 K, which is below the temperature where the oxidation reaction of CA was observed in the absence of ozone. The observed CA + O 3 product, C 4 H 6 O 4 , is found to be linked to a ketohydroperoxide (2-hydroperoxy-3-oxobutanal) resulting from the isomerization of the primary ozonide. Products corresponding to the CIs uni- and bi-molecular reactions were observed and identified. A network of CI reactions is identified in the temperature region below 600 K, characterized by CIs bimolecular reactions with species like aldehydes, i.e., formaldehyde, acetaldehyde, and crotonaldehyde and alkenes, i.e., ethene and propene. The region below 600 K is also characterized by the formation of important amounts of typical low-temperature oxidation products, such as hydrogen peroxide (H 2 O 2 ), methyl hydroperoxide (CH 3 OOH), and ethyl hydroperoxide (C 2 H 5 OOH). Detection of additional oxygenated species such as alcohols, ketene, and aldehydes are indicative of multiple active oxidation routes. This study provides important information about the initial step involved in the CIs assisted oligomerization reactions in complex reactive environments where CIs with different functionalities are reacting simultaneously. It provides new mechanistic insights into ozone-assisted oxidation reactions of unsaturated aldehydes, which is critical for the development of improved atmospheric and combustion kinetics models.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

dCache CI/CD migration to Kubernetes

For over two decades, the dCache project has provided open-source to satisfy ever-more demanding storage requirements. More than 80 sites worldwide rely on dCache to provide services for LHC experiments, Belle-II, Eu- XFEL, and others. This can be achieved only with a well-established process from a whiteboard, where ideas are created through development, packaging, and testing. The project’s build and test infrastructure is based on Jenkins CI and a set of virtual machines. This infrastructure is maintained by dCache developers. With the introduction of the DESY-central Gitlab server, the developers have started migrating from VM-based testing to container-based deployments in the onsite Kubernetes cluster. As a result, we have packaged dCache containers and Helm charts that can be used by other sites to reproduce our test and build steps quickly or to evaluate new releases on their pre-production systems and, eventually, become a standard model of dCache deployment at the sites. This paper describes the challenges we have faced, the techniques we used to solve them, and the issues that still need to be addressed.

Mkrtchyan, Tigran [DESY]↗
DOE OSTI2020

Analytic stability boundaries for compressional and global Alfvén eigenmodes driven by fast ions. I. Interaction via ordinary and anomalous cyclotron resonances

Conditions for net fast ion drive are derived for beam-driven, sub-cyclotron compressional (CAE) and global (GAE) Alfvén eigenmodes, such as those routinely observed in spherical tokamaks such as NSTX(-U) and MAST. Both co- and counter-propagating CAEs and GAEs are investigated, driven by the ordinary and anomalous Doppler-shifted cyclotron resonance with fast ions. Whereas prior results were restricted to vanishingly narrow distributions in velocity space, broad parameter regimes are identified in this work which enable an analytic treatment for realistic fast ion distributions generated by neutral beam injection. The simple, approximate conditions derived in these regimes for beam distributions of realistic width compare well to the numerical evaluation of the full analytic expressions for fast ion drive. Additionally, previous results in the very narrow beam case are corrected and generalized to retain all terms in ω/ω ci and |k ∥ /k ⊥ |, which are often assumed to be small parameters but can significantly modify the conditions of drive and damping when they are non-negligible. Lastly, favorable agreement is demonstrated between the approximate stability criterion, simulation results, and a large database of NSTX observations of cntr-GAEs.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Analytic stability boundaries for compressional and global Alfvén eigenmodes driven by fast ions. II. Interaction via Landau resonance

We report that conditions for net fast ion drive are derived for beam-driven, co-propagating, sub-cyclotron compressional (CAE) and global (GAE) Alfvén eigenmodes driven by the Landau resonance with super-Alfvénic fast ions. Approximations applicable to realistic neutral beam distributions and mode characteristics observed in spherical tokamaks enable the derivation of marginal stability conditions for these modes. Such conditions successfully reproduce the stability boundaries found from numerical integration of the exact expression for local fast ion drive/damping. Coupling between the CAE and GAE branches of the dispersion due to finite ω/ω ci and |k ∥ /k ⊥ | is retained and found to be responsible for the existence of the GAE instability via this resonance. Finally, encouraging agreement is demonstrated between the approximate stability criterion, simulation results, and a database of NSTX observations of co-CAEs.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Vibrational levels of a generalized Morse potential

A Generalized Morse Potential (GMP) is an extension of the Morse Potential (MP) with an additional exponential term and an additional parameter that compensate for MP’s erroneous behavior in the long range part of the interaction potential. Because of the additional term and parameter, the vibrational levels of the GMP cannot be solved analytically, unlike the case for the MP. We present several numerical approaches for solving the vibrational problem of the GMP based on Galerkin methods, namely, the Laguerre Polynomial Method (LPM), the Symmetrized LPM, and the Polynomial Expansion Method (PEM), and apply them to the vibrational levels of the homonuclear diatomic molecules B 2 , O 2 , and F 2 , for which high level theoretical near full configuration interaction (CI) electronic ground state potential energy surfaces and experimentally measured vibrational levels have been reported. Overall, the LPM produces vibrational states for the GMP that are converged to within spectroscopic accuracy of 0.01 cm –1 in between 1 and 2 orders of magnitude faster and with much fewer basis functions/grid points than the Colbert–Miller Discrete Variable Representation (CN-DVR) method for the three homonuclear diatomic molecules examined in this study.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

A novel Doppler backscattering (DBS) system to simultaneously measure radio frequency plasma fluctuations and low frequency turbulence

A novel quadrature Doppler Backscattering (DBS) system has been developed and optimized for the E-band (60–90 GHz) frequency range using either O-mode or X-mode polarization in DIII-D plasmas. In general, DBS measures the amplitude of density fluctuations and their velocity in the lab frame. The system can simultaneously monitor both low-frequency turbulence (f < 10 MHz) and radiofrequency plasma density fluctuations over a selectable frequency range (20–500 MHz). Detection of high-frequency fluctuations has been demonstrated for low harmonics of the ion cyclotron frequency (e.g., 2f ci ~ 23 MHz) and externally driven high-frequency helicon waves (f = 476 MHz) using an adjustable frequency down conversion system. Importantly, this extends the application of DBS to a high-frequency spectral domain while maintaining important turbulence and flow measurement capabilities. This unique system has low phase noise, good temporal resolution (sub-millisecond), and excellent wavenumber coverage (k θ ~ 1–20 cm –1 and kr ≲ 30 cm –1 ). As a demonstration, localized internal DIII-D plasma measurements are presented from turbulence (f ≤ 5 MHz), Alfvenic waves (f ~ 6.5 MHz), ion cyclotron waves (f ≥ 20 MHz), as well as fluctuations around 476 MHz driven by an external high-power 476 MHz helicon wave antenna. In the future, helicon measurements will be used to validate GENRAY and AORSA modeling tools for prediction of helicon wave propagation, absorption, and current drive location for the newly installed helicon current drive system on DIII-D.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Upgrade of DIII-D radial interferometer–polarimeter for large bandwidth, low noise, and toroidal mode number measurements

Near ion-cyclotron frequency (f ci ) fluctuations, such as those originating from Global and Compressional Alfvén Eigenmodes (GAEs/CAEs), are expected to be present in future fusion reactors but are not well understood due to the limited availability of core measurements in present-day tokamaks. The measurement bandwidth of the Radial Interferometer–Polarimeter (RIP) diagnostic has been upgraded from 1 to 5 MHz to detect these fluctuations in DIII-D. RIP adopts the three-wave technique for simultaneous polarimetric and interferometric measurements. Solid-state microwave sources operating at 650 GHz are used as probe beams and provide 5 MHz bandwidth for both polarimetric and interferometric measurements. Bandwidths of related hardware, including mixer amplifier, signal cable, and digital phase demodulator, are increased correspondingly. Measurement noise is minimized by reducing the time delay between reference and probe signals to nanosecond level and employing correlation-based techniques. Using the upgraded diagnostic, CAE/GAE-like bursting fluctuations are observed in neutral-beam heated plasmas with toroidal magnetic field B φ ≈ 1 T. Current upgrades being undertaken would enable the evaluation of toroidal mode number for these modes. Furthermore, this work opens the possibility of better understanding near ion-cyclotron frequency fluctuations in fusion relevant plasmas.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

The MuFusE large-volume diamond anvil cell for exploring muon-catalyzed fusion at higher pressures and temperatures

A new large-volume diamond anvil cell (DAC) has been developed for the Muon-catalyzed Fusion (μCF) Experiment (MuFusE), enabling the compression and heating of deuterium–tritium (d–t) mixtures to pressures and temperatures needed to advance μCF research. The MuFusE DAC achieves the large sample volumes necessary for high-precision fusion measurements while integrating cryogenic loading, all-metal sealing, and flexible bellows to maintain a secure environment during cell compression. Combined with remote pneumatic actuation and secondary containment, the DAC safely managed a 25 Ci tritium inventory while providing a clear optical path for in situ measurements of sample pressure and composition via laser spectroscopy. Utilizing 5 mm diameter diamond anvils oriented in the path of a high-intensity muon beam, the apparatus achieved a stable sample volume of 19.2 mm 3 at liquid density, pressures up to 933 MPa and temperatures up to 400 K—benchmarks that significantly exceed previously reported limits for static d–t targets.

Kalow, J. D. [Acceleron Fusion, Inc., Cambridge, M↗
DOE OSTI2026

Active space selection with self-healing diffusion Monte Carlo algorithms for periodic solids

Multideterminant Diffusion Monte Carlo (DMC) displays improved accuracy over single determinant DMC. Self-Healing Diffusion Monte Carlo (SHDMC) is a DMC based method that iteratively improves a multideterminant trial wavefunction. Although configuration interaction or complete active space (CAS) methods are very accurate and computationally feasible for many systems, they are not optimal for application to solids. SHDMC is accurate and designed for application to solids, so developing SHDMC based active space selection algorithms is a worthy endeavor. Here, we present and compare active space selection algorithms that are designed for use in conjunction with SHDMC, without relying on external approaches. For benchmarking, we calculated the ground state energy of a small unit cell of graphene and compared the results with a complete basis set extrapolated selected CI and a reference SHDMC trajectory. We found that systematically expanding the active space using an “auto-branching” algorithm optimally balances accuracy with computational practicality. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work that demonstrates completely self-contained DMC-based active space selection algorithms that do not depend on external methods for determinant selection.

Spanedda, Nicole [ORNL]↗
DOE OSTI2020

Direct kinetic measurements and theoretical predictions of an isoprene-derived Criegee intermediate

Isoprene has the highest emission into Earth’s atmosphere of any nonmethane hydrocarbon. Atmospheric processing of alkenes, including isoprene, via ozonolysis leads to the formation of zwitterionic reactive intermediates, known as Criegee intermediates (CIs). Direct studies have revealed that reactions involving simple CIs can significantly impact the tropospheric oxidizing capacity, enhance particulate formation, and degrade local air quality. Methyl vinyl ketone oxide (MVK-oxide) is a four-carbon, asymmetric, resonance-stabilized CI, produced with 21 to 23% yield from isoprene ozonolysis, yet its reactivity has not been directly studied. We present direct kinetic measurements of MVK-oxide reactions with key atmospheric species using absorption spectroscopy. Direct UV-Vis absorption spectra from two independent flow cell experiments overlap with the molecular beam UV-Vis-depletion spectra reported recently [M. F. Vansco, B. Marchetti, M. I. Lester, J. Chem. Phys. 149, 44309 (2018)] but suggest different conformer distributions under jet-cooled and thermal conditions. Comparison of the experimental lifetime herein with theory indicates only the syn -conformers are observed; anti -conformers are calculated to be removed much more rapidly via unimolecular decay. We observe experimentally and predict theoretically fast reaction of syn -MVK-oxide with SO 2 and formic acid, similar to smaller alkyl-substituted CIs, and by contrast, slow removal in the presence of water. We determine products through complementary multiplexed photoionization mass spectrometry, observing SO 3 and identifying organic hydroperoxide formation from reaction with SO 2 and formic acid, respectively. The tropospheric implications of these reactions are evaluated using a global chemistry and transport model.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying contributions of natural variability and anthropogenic forcings on increased fire weather risk over the western United States

Previous studies have identified a recent increase in wildfire activity in the western United States (WUS). However, the extent to which this trend is due to weather pattern changes dominated by natural variability versus anthropogenic warming has been unclear. Using an ensemble constructed flow analogue approach, we have employed observations to estimate vapor pressure deficit (VPD), the leading meteorological variable that controls wildfires, associated with different atmospheric circulation patterns. Our results show that for the period 1979 to 2020, variation in the atmospheric circulation explains, on average, only 32% of the observed VPD trend of 0.48 ± 0.25 hPa/decade (95% CI) over the WUS during the warm season (May to September). The remaining 68% of the upward VPD trend is likely due to anthropogenic warming. The ensemble simulations of climate models participating in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project suggest that anthropogenic forcing explains an even larger fraction of the observed VPD trend (88%) for the same period and region. These models and observational estimates likely provide a lower and an upper bound on the true impact of anthropogenic warming on the VPD trend over the WUS. During August 2020, when the August Complex “Gigafire” occurred in the WUS, anthropogenic warming likely explains 50% of the unprecedented high VPD anomalies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

California’s 2023 snow deluge: Contextualizing an extreme snow year against future climate change

The increasing prevalence of low snow conditions in a warming climate has attracted substantial attention in recent years, but a focus exclusively on low snow leaves high snow years relatively underexplored. However, these large snow years are hydrologically and economically important in regions where snow is critical for water resources. Here, we introduce the term “snow deluge” and use anomalously high snowpack in California’s Sierra Nevada during the 2023 water year as a case study. Snow monitoring sites across the state had a median 41 y return interval for April 1 snow water equivalent (SWE). Similarly, a process-based snow model showed a 54 y return interval for statewide April 1 SWE (90% CI: 38 to 109 y). While snow droughts can result from either warm or dry conditions, snow deluges require both cool and wet conditions. Relative to the last century, cool-season temperature and precipitation during California’s 2023 snow deluge were both moderately anomalous, while temperature was highly anomalous relative to recent climatology. Downscaled climate models in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway-370 scenario indicate that California snow deluges—which we define as the 20 y April 1 SWE event—are projected to decline with climate change (58% decline by late century), although less so than median snow years (73% decline by late century). This pattern occurs across the western United States. Changes to snow deluge, and discrepancies between snow deluge and median snow year changes, could impact water resources and ecosystems. Understanding these changes is therefore critical to appropriate climate adaptation.

Marshall, Adrienne M.↗