SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “likelihood function”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 397 records · Page 22

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2021

Apprentice for Event Generator Tuning

Apprentice is a tool developed for event generator tuning. It contains a range of conceptual improvements and extensions over the tuning tool Professor. Its core functionality remains the construction of a multivariate analytic surrogate model to computationally expensive Monte-Carlo event generator predictions. The surrogate model is used for numerical optimization in chi-square minimization and likelihood evaluation. Apprentice also introduces algorithms to automate the selection of observable weights to minimize the effect of mis-modeling in the event generators. We illustrate our improvements for the task of MC-generator tuning and limit setting.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Radiative properties of quantum emitters in boron nitride from excited state calculations and Bayesian analysis

Abstract Point defects in hexagonal boron nitride (hBN) have attracted growing attention as bright single-photon emitters. However, understanding of their atomic structure and radiative properties remains incomplete. Here we study the excited states and radiative lifetimes of over 20 native defects and carbon or oxygen impurities in hBN using ab initio density functional theory and GW plus Bethe-Salpeter equation calculations, generating a large data set of their emission energy, polarization and lifetime. We find a wide variability across quantum emitters, with exciton energies ranging from 0.3 to 4 eV and radiative lifetimes from ns to ms for different defect structures. Through a Bayesian statistical analysis, we identify various high-likelihood charge-neutral defect emitters, among which the native V N N B defect is predicted to possess emission energy and radiative lifetime in agreement with experiments. Our work advances the microscopic understanding of hBN single-photon emitters and introduces a computational framework to characterize and identify quantum emitters in 2D materials.

Chemistry↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Human Capabilities Assessments for Autonomous Missions: A Multi-Team Research Effort to Reduce Risk in the Human-System Integration Architecture for Future Deep-Space Missions

In future exploration missions beyond low earth-orbit, crew will have to execute complex operations and respond to off-nominal events, without real-time support from Mission Control. It is anticipated that increased reliance on automated systems, including human-centric vehicle and information architecture, will need to be designed to support the crew; increased risk to performance, health, and safety may occur if these are not implemented appropriately. The Human Factors and Behavioral Performance Element (HFBP) in the NASA Human Research Program supports research to characterize and mitigate such human health and performance risks, including the Risk of Adverse Outcome Due to Inadequate Human Systems Integration Architecture (HSIA). The HSIA risk addresses the integration of onboard capability and the crew roles and responsibilities necessary to enable the crew to respond effectively and efficiently in the increasingly autonomous mission operations environment. In 2017, HFBP released the “Human Capabilities Assessments for Autonomous Missions” (HCAAM) research topic to address HSIA related questions. HCAAM is a major NASA research effort that has assembled a multidisciplinary team from seven institutions to work closely with design and engineering efforts on research towards developing and refining human performance standards, guidelines and automation tools. The scientific focus is on quantitative assessment of human capabilities relevant to future deep-space missions during which earth/spacecraft communication is so delayed and intermittent that the crew must be able to function autonomously. The integrated strategy of the HCAAM project characterizes human capabilities and limitations related to potential performance decrements during long duration exploration mission spaceflight as relevant to both routine and complex task performance; defines system characteristics that reduce the likelihood or impact of potential decrements in human performance capabilities; performs integrated assessment of intelligent system responses within the context of an operational environment with relevant NASA tools, systems, and data structures in order to determine positive or negative interactions and validate recommended approaches; and proposes specific updates to existing standards and guidelines for inclusion in NASA handbooks for the design of future spacecraft intelligent systems that provide crew performance assessment/feedback, and to also serve as decision-support aids for the onboard crew (i.e., NASA-STD-3001, and NASA/SP-Human Integration Design Handbook (HIDH)). The scientific research vectors being addressed by the seven HCAAM teams include: - crew task performance (accuracy, efficiency) (crew + automation) - crew performance (accuracy, efficiency) - crew Situation Awareness - procedure design and multi-modal enhancement - concurrent tasking (mixed manual + some level of autonomy) - task handover - crew self-planning and time-lining - task design - trust in automation, real-time calibration - human multi-sensory feedback and guidance - human trust in on-board software-based intelligent assistants - virtual assistants The presentation will highlight plans and progress made in each of these research areas as well as the methods by which surrogate astronaut crews in the NASA JSC HERA spaceflight analog facility will function as human test subjects for all of the HCAAM research projects.

HCAAM VNSCOR↗

DOE OSTI2021

Measurement of the inclusive and differential Higgs boson production cross sections in the leptonic WW decay mode at $\sqrt{s} =$ 13 TeV

Measurements of the fiducial inclusive and differential production cross sections of the Higgs boson in proton-proton collisions at $ \sqrt{s} $ = 13 TeV are performed using events where the Higgs boson decays into a pair of W bosons that subsequently decay into a final state with an electron, a muon, and a pair of neutrinos. The analysis is based on data collected with the CMS detector at the LHC during 2016–2018, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 137 fb$^{−1}$. Production cross sections are measured as a function of the transverse momentum of the Higgs boson and the associated jet multiplicity. The Higgs boson signal is extracted and simultaneously unfolded to correct for selection efficiency and resolution effects using maximum-likelihood fits to the observed distributions in data. The integrated fiducial cross section is measured to be 86.5 ± 9.5 fb, consistent with the Standard Model expectation of 82.5 ± 4.2 fb. No significant deviation from the Standard Model expectations is observed in the differential measurements.[graphic not available: see fulltext]

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

LTAU-FF: Loss Trajectory Analysis for Uncertainty in atomistic Force Fields

LTAU (Loss Trajectory Analysis for Uncertainty) is a technique for estimating the uncertainty in a model's predictions for any regression task by approximating the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the model's errors over the course of training. The approximated CDF, combined with a similarity search algorithm in the model's descriptor space, can then be used to estimate the likelihood that the model's predictions on any given test point will fall below a chosen threshold. LTAU-FF (LTAU in atomistic Force Fields) is the application of LTAU specifically for use with atomistic force fields.

Vita, JoshuaA↗

NASA NTRS1995

Object Detection in Natural Backgrounds Predicted by Discrimination Performance and Models

In object detection, an observer looks for an object class member in a set of backgrounds. In discrimination, an observer tries to distinguish two images. Discrimination models predict the probability that an observer detects a difference between two images. We compare object detection and image discrimination with the same stimuli by: (1) making stimulus pairs of the same background with and without the target object and (2) either giving many consecutive trials with the same background (discrimination) or intermixing the stimuli (object detection). Six images of a vehicle in a natural setting were altered to remove the vehicle and mixed with the original image in various proportions. Detection observers rated the images for vehicle presence. Discrimination observers rated the images for any difference from the background image. Estimated detectabilities of the vehicles were found by maximizing the likelihood of a Thurstone category scaling model. The pattern of estimated detectabilities is similar for discrimination and object detection, and is accurately predicted by a Cortex Transform discrimination model. Predictions of a Contrast- Sensitivity- Function filter model and a Root-Mean-Square difference metric based on the digital image values are less accurate. The discrimination detectabilities averaged about twice those of object detection.

Ahumada, A. J., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2022

Enabling a Larger Deep Space Mission Suite: A Deep Space Network Queuing Antenna for Demand Access

The advent of deep space small spacecraft, as exemplified by the Mars Cubesat One (MarCO), Lunar Trailblazer, Janus, the Escape and Plasma Acceleration and Dynamics Explorers (EscaPADE), and the thirteen Artemis 1 missions, opens the possibility that a much larger number of deep space spacecraft may be launched over the next 10 years and beyond. While scientifically exciting, the prospect of a (much) larger mission suite raises significant challenges for the current approach to ground stations and mission operations. We have been investigating an integrated approach for ground stations and missions operations to enable new modes of operation while maintaining the capabilities of the current operational techniques. This integrated approach is built around three core capabilities: (1) A queuing antenna that enables monitoring the status of a much larger number of spacecraft, and allows spacecraft to transmit requests for telemetry with NASA’s Deep Space Network (DSN); (2) a flexible scheduling system that expands the current DSN scheduling services to enable allocating time on DSN antennas in near real-time; and (3) a cloud-based ground data system that can be spun up and down according to how tracks are assigned by the flexible scheduling system. We shall show that an 18 meter DSN queuing antenna equipped with cyrogenic receivers would enable use of the DSN Demand Access Service for small spacecraft throughout the inner Solar System, thus providing service to a large mission suite. We first discuss the architecture of the queuing antenna and its supporting systems, including, for instance, the service required to generate the schedule for the queueing antenna (which dictates how it slews to monitor multiple spacecraft in a day of operations). Next, we describe the signaling scheme used to encode a request, which is inherited from the already operational DSN Beacon Tone Service, and describe two alternative ways to detect the incoming tone at the ground station, one based on maximum likelihood estimation (MLE), and another one based on Fast-Fourier Transfer (FFT) processing. We then use these results to estimate the maximum range at which a request can be reliably detected as a function of the spacecraft and ground station communication capabilities. Finally, the last part of this part of this paper briefly describes the prototyping effort undertaken at Morehead State University (MSU) and JPL to demonstrate the viability of this new DSN demand access. In particular, we describe the suite of tests conducted using MSU’s 21 meter ground station to validate its use a queuing antenna.

Mattle, Emily↗

NASA NTRS1990

Real-time adaptive aircraft scheduling

One of the most important functions of any air traffic management system is the assignment of ground-holding times to flights, i.e., the determination of whether and by how much the take-off of a particular aircraft headed for a congested part of the air traffic control (ATC) system should be postponed in order to reduce the likelihood and extent of airborne delays. An analysis is presented for the fundamental case in which flights from many destinations must be scheduled for arrival at a single congested airport; the formulation is also useful in scheduling the landing of airborne flights within the extended terminal area. A set of approaches is described for addressing a deterministic and a probabilistic version of this problem. For the deterministic case, where airport capacities are known and fixed, several models were developed with associated low-order polynomial-time algorithms. For general delay cost functions, these algorithms find an optimal solution. Under a particular natural assumption regarding the delay cost function, an extremely fast (O(n ln n)) algorithm was developed. For the probabilistic case, using an estimated probability distribution of airport capacities, a model was developed with an associated low-order polynomial-time heuristic algorithm with useful properties.

Kolitz, Stephan E.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Reconstructing porous media using generative flow networks

One area of intense scientific interest for the study of sandstones, carbonates, and shale at the pore scale is the use of limited image and petrophysical data to generate multiple realizations of a rock’s pore structure. Such images aid efforts to quantify uncertainty in petrophysical properties, including porosity–permeability transforms. We develop and evaluate a deep learning-based method to synthesize porous media volumes using a so-called generative flow model trained on x-ray microscope images of rock texture and pore structure. These models are optimized on a log-likelihood objective and they synthesize large and realistic three-dimensional images. Further, we demonstrate the rapid generation of sandstone image volumes that display realism as gauged by quantitative comparison of topological features using Minkowski functionals of porosity, specific surface area, and the Euler–Poincaré characteristic (i.e., pore connectivity). We also evaluate the single-phase permeability using Navier–Stokes and lattice Boltzmann methods and show that transport properties of the generated samples match measured trends.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1970

Preprocessing of multispectral data and simulation of ERTS data channels to make computer terrain maps of a Yellowstone National Park test site

The possibility of improving the accuracy of terrain classification by preprocessing spectral data was investigated. Terrain maps were made using the following techniques: 1) preprocessing by scan angle function transformation, using the computer-selected best set of three channels; and 2) preprocessing by ratio transformation, using the specified ERTS data channels, simulated by fitting the spectral response of each of the 12 data channels to the ERTS channels by a set of weighting coefficients. By using a simple technique during printout, the maps were produced in color. The normalized scan angle function transformation resulted in the most accurate classification. The best ratio transformation for the Yellowstone Park data was the ratio of each channel to the sum of all channels. A supervised training program involving maximum likelihood decision for selecting the best spectrometer channels and similar techniques for digitizing the data of the analog magnetic tapes were used. Cloud shadows were recognized in addition to eight classes of terrain. Preprocessing of data resulted in more accurate maps, required fewer training areas (hence less preparation and computer time), and enabled much of the area formerly classified as shadow to be reclassified according to actual terrain type.

Smedes, H. W.↗

NASA NTRS1984

More than you may want to know about maximum likelihood estimation

A discussion is undertaken concerning the maximum likelihood estimator and the aircraft equations of motion it employs, with attention to the application of the concepts of minimization and estimation to a simple computed aircraft example. Graphic representations are given for the cost functions to help illustrate the minimization process. The basic concepts are then generalized, and estimations obtained from flight data are evaluated. The example considered shows the advantage of low measurement noise, multiple estimates at a given condition, the Cramer-Rao bounds, and the quality of the match between measured and computed data.

Iliff, K. W.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Reionization effective likelihood from Planck 2018 data

We release relike (reionization effective likelihood), a fast and accurate effective likelihood code based on the latest Planck 2018 data that allows one to constrain any model for reionization between 6 < z < 30 using five constraints from the CMB reionization principal components (PC). We tested the code on two example models which showed excellent agreement with sampling the exact Planck likelihoods using either a simple Gaussian PC likelihood or its full kernel density estimate. This code enables a fast and consistent means for combining Planck constraints with other reionization data sets, such as kinetic Sunyaev-Zeldovich effects, line-intensity mapping, luminosity function, star formation history, quasar spectra, etc., where the redshift dependence of the ionization history is important. Since the PC technique tests any reionization history in the given range, we also derive model-independent constraints for the total Thomson optical depth τ PC = $0.0619$$^{+0.0056}_{–0.0068}$ and its 15 ≤ z ≤ 30 high redshift component τ PC (15,30) < 0.020 (95% C.L.). Furthermore, the upper limits on the high-redshift optical depth is a factor of ~3 larger than those reported in the Planck 2018 cosmological parameter paper using the FlexKnot method and we validate our results with a direct analysis of a two-step model which permits this small high-z component.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2010

The Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT): Beam Profiles and First SZ Cluster Maps

The Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) is currently observing the cosmic microwave background with arcminute resolution at 148 GHz, 218 GHz, and 277 GHz, In this paper, we present ACT's first results. Data have been analyzed using a maximum-likelihood map-making method which uses B-splines to model and remove the atmospheric signal. It has been used to make high-precision beam maps from which we determine the experiment's window functions, This beam information directly impacts all subsequent analyses of the data. We also used the method to map a sample of galaxy clusters via the Sunyaev-Ze1'dovich (SZ) effect, and show five clusters previously detected with X-ray or SZ observations, We provide integrated Compton-y measurements for each cluster. Of particular interest is our detection of the z = 0.44 component of A3128 and our current non-detection of the low-redshift part, providing strong evidence that the further cluster is more massive as suggested by X-ray measurements. This is a compelling example of the redshift-independent mass selection of the SZ effect.

Hincks, A. D.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Measurements of W + W − production cross-sections in pp collisions at $\sqrt{s}=13$ TeV with the ATLAS detector

Measurements of W + W − → e ± νμ ∓ ν production cross-sections are presented, providing a test of the predictions of perturbative quantum chromodynamics and the electroweak theory. The measurements are based on data from pp collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV recorded by the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider in 2015–2018, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 140 fb −1 . The number of events due to top-quark pair production, the largest background, is reduced by rejecting events containing jets with b-hadron decays. An improved methodology for estimating the remaining top-quark background enables a precise measurement of W + W − cross-sections with no additional requirements on jets. The fiducial W + W − cross-section is determined in a maximum-likelihood fit with an uncertainty of 3.1%. The measurement is extrapolated to the full phase space, resulting in a total W + W − cross-section of 127 ± 4 pb. Differential cross-sections are measured as a function of twelve observables that comprehensively describe the kinematics of W + W − events. The measurements are compared with state-of-the-art theory calculations and excellent agreement with predictions is observed. A charge asymmetry in the lepton rapidity is observed as a function of the dilepton invariant mass, in agreement with the Standard Model expectation. A CP-odd observable is measured to be consistent with no CP violation. Limits on Standard Model effective field theory Wilson coefficients in the Warsaw basis are obtained from the differential cross-sections.

Accelerator Physics↗

DOE OSTI2021

Predicting and Synthesizing Interface Stabilized 2D Layers

The compound (Pb 2 MnSe 3 ) 0.6 VSe 2 was predicted to be kinetically stable based on density functional theory (DFT) calculations on an island of Pb 2 MnSe 3 between layers of VSe 2 . This approach provides a high degree of freedom by not forcing interlayer lattice match, making it ideal to investigate the likelihood of formation of new incommensurate layer misfit structures. The free space around the island is critical, as it allows atoms to diffuse and hence exploring the local energy landscape around the initial configuration. (Pb 2 MnSe 3 ) 0.6 VSe 2 was synthesized via a near diffusionless reaction from precursors where a repeating sequence of elemental layers matches the local composition and layer sequence of the predicted compound. The VSe 2 layer consists of a Se–V–Se trilayer with octahedral coordination of the V atoms. The Pb 2 MnSe 3 layer consists of three rock-salt-like planes, with a MnSe layer between the planes of PbSe. The center MnSe plane stabilizes the puckering of the outer PbSe layers. Electrical properties indicate that (Pb 2 Mn 1 Se 3 ) 0.6 VSe 2 undergoes a charge density wave transition at ~100 K and orders ferromagnetically at 35 K. Overall, the combination of theory and experiment enables a faster convergence to new heterostructures than either approach in isolation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Lab Collaboration Project (LCP) for Marine Energy: Quantifying Collision Risk for Fish and Turbines Final Technical Report (Task 10)

A persistent environmental concern for the widespread deployment of tidal turbines is the potential for fish and marine mammals to collide with rotating blades (Copping et al. 2016, Copping and Hemery 2020). This is a consequence of well-documented bird and bat mortalities around wind turbines (Smallwood 2007, Thompson et al. 2017), as well as fish mortality at conventional hydropower dams (Pracheil et al. 2016) and tidal barrages (Dadswell and Rulifson 1994). However, unlike hydropower dams or barrages, tidal turbines do not involve structures that channel all flow through the turbines. Similarly, while functionally similar to wind turbines, tidal turbines often operate at lower relative velocities and, depending on the end-use application, may be significantly smaller than utility-scale wind turbines. Both of these factors reduce the likelihood and severity of collision, but the knowledge base on this topic remains limited.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2004

On Bayesian Inductive Inference & Predictive Estimation

We investigate Bayesian inference and the Principle of Maximum Entropy (PME) as methods for doing inference under uncertainty. This investigation is primarily through concrete examples that have been previously investigated in the literature. We find that it is possible to do Bayesian inference and PME inference using the same information, despite claims to the contrary, but that the results are not directly comparable. This is because Bayesian inference yields a probability density function (pdf) over the unknown model parameters, whereas PME yields point estimates. If mean estimates are extracted from the Bayesian pdfs, the resulting parameter estimates can differ radically from the PME values and also from the Maximum Likelihood values. We conclude that these differences are due to the Bayesian inference not assuming anything beyond the given prior probabilities and the data, whereas PME implicitly assumes that the given constraints are the only constraints that are operating. Since this assumption can be wrong, PME values may have to be revised when subsequent data shows evidence for more constraints. The entropy concentration previously "proved" by E. T. Jaynes is shown to be in error. Further, we show that PME is a generalized form of independence assumption, and so can be a very powerful method of inference when the variables being investigated are largely independent of each other.

Cheeseman, Peter↗

DOE OSTI2024

Substitution Models of Protein Evolution with Selection on Enzymatic Activity

Abstract Substitution models of evolution are necessary for diverse evolutionary analyses including phylogenetic tree and ancestral sequence reconstructions. At the protein level, empirical substitution models are traditionally used due to their simplicity, but they ignore the variability of substitution patterns among protein sites. Next, in order to improve the realism of the modeling of protein evolution, a series of structurally constrained substitution models were presented, but still they usually ignore constraints on the protein activity. Here, we present a substitution model of protein evolution with selection on both protein structure and enzymatic activity, and that can be applied to phylogenetics. In particular, the model considers the binding affinity of the enzyme–substrate complex as well as structural constraints that include the flexibility of structural flaps, hydrogen bonds, amino acids backbone radius of gyration, and solvent-accessible surface area that are quantified through molecular dynamics simulations. We applied the model to the HIV-1 protease and evaluated it by phylogenetic likelihood in comparison with the best-fitting empirical substitution model and a structurally constrained substitution model that ignores the enzymatic activity. We found that accounting for selection on the protein activity improves the fitting of the modeled functional regions with the real observations, especially in data with high molecular identity, which recommends considering constraints on the protein activity in the development of substitution models of evolution.

Ferreiro, David↗