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DOE OSTI2021

Artificial High-Transition Temperature Superconductors

In this work, we have used the well-understood quantum Hall (QH) stripes in high quality two-dimensional electron gases to mimic charge stripes in high transition temperature (Tc) superconductors. The science question we want to address is “Can QH stripes mimic high Tc superconductor stripes and provide a controlled experimental setup to pin-down the role of stripes in high Tc superconductivity?”. We have observed anomalous superconducting transition like behavior in GaAs double quantum well systems (DQWs) when each quantum well (QW) is tuned to the charge stripe states but with different Landau level fillings. Furthermore, we have shown that the transition like behavior is sharper in the DQWs when the two QWs are more strongly coupled. Our results suggest, for the first time, experimental evidence of the paired charge stripes model, which might lead to room-temperature superconductors that have enormously wide applications in computing, energy, and transportation industries. Advancing the science of high transition temperature superconductivity will have a profound impact in advancing energy technologies, ranging from the next generation microchips, new energy transfer grid to public transportation, and thus is important to nation’s energy security and relevant across the landscape of many mission spaces. Sandia has been a leader in materials science research and development. The proposed research takes advantage of Sandia’s state-ofthe-art MBE facilities at the Center for Integrated Nanotechnologies (CINT) and utilizes Sandia’s extensive advanced materials characterization resources. We envision a significant impact on the nation’s energy research and security challenges by investing in this research.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

MOSAIC-CONUS: A Multimodal, Multi-Temporally Paired Dataset for Earth Sciences

Earth embeddings—vector representations of geographic locations indexed in space and time—are emerging as a unifying interface for geospatial AI. However, their quality depends not only on model design, but on how multimodal Earth observation (EO) data are spatially indexed, temporally aligned, and cross-modally associated during pretraining. We introduce MOSAIC-CONUS (Multimodal Observations with Spatially Aligned Imagery, Urban Points of Interest, In-Situ Measurements and Text Captions), a large-scale EO dataset over the contiguous United States, organized around 250,000 stratified point indices that serve as stable spatial keys across seven modalities: active radar, passive optical imagery, lidar-derived elevation, land cover, functional context, hydrometeorological measurements, and textual summaries. Unlike existing EO datasets, MOSAIC-CONUS introduces four contributions not jointly addressed in prior work: 1. an open-source, large-scale multimodal EO corpus structured around point-indexed data designed to support Earth embedding learning; 2. explicit radar-optical pairing tables spanning twelve temporal alignment regimes, formalizing cross-sensor alignment as a controllable variable for analyzing how temporal mismatch across modalities influences learned embeddings quality; 3. a benchmark suite spanning cross-modal retrieval, annual nightlights regression, and basin-held-out streamflow prediction, positioning MOSAIC-CONUS as a benchmark-ready resource for multimodal AI systems; and 4. a language-based embedding layer through co-registered textual summaries, enabling Earth embeddings to function as a queryable interface for agentic AI systems. The dataset and pairing protocols are publicly released.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Opportunities at the Sanford Underground Research Facility

The Sanford Underground Research Facility (SURF) has been operating for more than 15 years as an international facility dedicated to advancing compelling multidisciplinary underground scientific research in rare-process physics, as well as offering research opportunities in other disciplines. SURF laboratory facilities include a Surface Campus as well as campuses at the 4850-foot level (1490 m, 4300 m.w.e.) that host a range of significant physics experiments, including the LUX-ZEPLIN (LZ) dark matter experiment and the MAJORANA DEMONSTRATOR neutrinoless double-beta decay experiment. The CASPAR nuclear astrophysics accelerator completed the first phase of operation and is planning for the second phase beginning in 2024. SURF is also home to the Long-Baseline Neutrino Facility (LBNF) that will host the international Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE). SURF offers world-class service, including an ultra-low background environment, low-background assay capabilities, and electroformed copper is produced at the facility. SURF is preparing to increase underground laboratory space. Plans are advancing for construction of new large caverns (nominally 100m L x 20m W x 24m H) on the 4850L (1485 m, 4100 mwe) on the timeframe of next-generation experiments (~2030). SURF plans to leverage existing advisory and community committees as well as engage the underground science community to inform plans for future laboratory space.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Microbial Tracking-2, a metagenomics analysis of bacteria and fungi onboard the International Space Station

The International Space Station (ISS) is a unique and complex built environment with the ISS surface microbiome originating from crew and cargo or from life support recirculation in an almost entirely closed system. The Microbial Tracking 1 (MT-1) project was the first ISS environmental surface study to report on the metagenome profiles without using whole-genome amplification. The study surveyed the microbial communities from eight surfaces over a 14-month period. The Microbial Tracking 2 (MT-2) project aimed to continue the work of MT-1, sampling an additional four flights from the same locations, over another 14 months. Eight surfaces across the ISS were sampled with sterile wipes and processed upon return to Earth. DNA extracted from the processed samples (and controls) were treated with propidium monoazide (PMA) to detect intact/viable cells or left untreated and to detect the total DNA population (free DNA/compromised cells/intact cells/viable cells). DNA extracted from PMA-treated and untreated samples were analyzed using shotgun metagenomics. Samples were cultured for bacteria and fungi to supplement the above results. Staphylococcus sp. and Malassezia sp. were the most represented bacterial and fungal species, respectively, on the ISS. Overall, the ISS surface microbiome was dominated by organisms associated with the human skin. Multi-dimensional scaling and differential abundance analysis showed significant temporal changes in the microbial population but no spatial differences. The ISS antimicrobial resistance gene profiles were however more stable over time, with no differences over the 5-year span of the MT-1 and MT-2 studies. Twenty-nine antimicrobial resistance genes were detected across all samples, with macrolide/lincosamide/streptogramin resistance being the most widespread. Metagenomic assembled genomes were reconstructed from the dataset, resulting in 82 MAGs. Functional assessment of the collective MAGs showed a propensity for amino acid utilization over carbohydrate metabolism. Co-occurrence analyses showed strong associations between bacterial and fungal genera. Culture analysis showed the microbial load to be on average 3.0 × 10 5 cfu/m 2 . Utilizing various metagenomics analyses and culture methods, we provided a comprehensive analysis of the ISS surface microbiome, showing microbial burden, bacterial and fungal species prevalence, changes in the microbiome, and resistome over time and space, as well as the functional capabilities and microbial interactions of this unique built microbiome. Data from this study may help to inform policies for future space missions to ensure an ISS surface microbiome that promotes astronaut health and spacecraft integrity.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Magnetic Ordering in a High‐Spin Donor–Acceptor Conjugated Polymer

Abstract The development of open‐shell organic molecules that magnetically order at room temperature,which can be practically applied, remains a grand challenge in chemistry, physics, and materials science. Despite the exploration of vast chemical space, design paradigms for organic paramagnetic centers generally result in unpaired electron spins that are unstable or isotropic. Here, a high‐spin conjugated polymer is demonstrated, which is composed of alternating cyclopentadithiophene and benzo[1,2‐ c ;4,5‐ c ′]bis[1,2,5]thiadiazole heterocycles, in which macromolecular structure and topology coalesce to promote the spin center generation and intermolecular exchange coupling. Electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) spectroscopy is consistent with spatially localized spins, while magnetic susceptibility measurements show clear anisotropic spin ordering and exchange interactions that persist at room temperature. The application of long‐range π‐correlations for spin center generation promotes remarkable stability. This work offers a fundamentally new approach to the implementation of this long‐sought‐after physical phenomenon within organic materials and the integration of manifold properties within emerging technologies.

Steelman, Michael E.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Efficient computation of N -point correlation functions in D dimensions

We present efficient algorithms for computing the N-point correlation functions (NPCFs) of random fields in arbitrary D-dimensional homogeneous and isotropic spaces. Such statistics appear throughout the physical sciences and provide a natural tool to describe stochastic processes. Typically, algorithms for computing the NPCF components have $\mathscr O$(n N ) complexity (for a dataset containing n particles); their application is thus computationally infeasible unless N is small. By projecting the statistic onto a suitably defined angular basis, we show that the estimators can be written in a separable form, with complexity $\mathscr O$(n 2 ) or $\mathscr O$(n g log n g ) if evaluated using a Fast Fourier Transform on a grid of size n g . Our decomposition is built upon the D-dimensional hyperspherical harmonics; these form a complete basis on the (D – 1) sphere and are intrinsically related to angular momentum operators. Concatenation of (N – 1) such harmonics gives states of definite combined angular momentum, forming a natural separable basis for the NPCF. As N and D grow, the number of basis components quickly becomes large, providing a practical limitation to this (and all other) approaches: However, the dimensionality is greatly reduced in the presence of symmetries; for example, isotropic correlation functions require only states of zero combined angular momentum. We provide a Julia package implementing our estimators and show how they can be applied to a variety of scenarios within cosmology and fluid dynamics. The efficiency of such estimators will allow higher-order correlators to become a standard tool in the analysis of random fields.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

WISE-PS1-STRM: neural network source classification and photometric redshifts for WISE×PS1

ABSTRACT We cross-match between the WISE All-Sky and PS1 3π DR2 source catalogues. The resulting catalogue has 354 590 570 objects, significantly fewer than the parent PS1 catalogue, but its combination of optical and infrared colours facilitate both better source classification and photometric redshift estimation. We perform a neural network-based classification of the objects into galaxies, quasars, and stars, then run neural network-based photometric redshift estimation for the galaxies. The star sample purity and quasar sample completeness measures improve substantially, and the resulting photo-z’s are significantly more accurate in terms of statistical scatter and bias than those calculated from PS1 properties alone. The catalogue will be a basis for future large-scale structure studies, and will be made available as a high-level science product via the Mikulski Archive for Space Telescopes.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Critical Infrastructure Decision-Making under Long-Term Climate Hazard Uncertainty: The Need for an Integrated, Multidisciplinary Approach

U.S. critical infrastructure assets are often designed to operate for decades, and yet long-term planning practices have historically ignored climate change. With the current pace of changing operational conditions and severe weather hazards, research is needed to improve our ability to translate complex, uncertain risk assessment data into actionable inputs to improve decision-making for infrastructure planning. Decisions made today need to explicitly account for climate change – the chronic stressors, the evolution of severe weather events, and the wide-ranging uncertainties. If done well, decision making with climate in mind will result in increased resilience and decreased impacts to our lives, economies, and national security. We present a three-tier approach to create the research products needed in this space: bringing together climate projection data, severe weather event modeling, asset-level impacts, and contextspecific decision constraints and requirements. At each step, it is crucial to capture uncertainties and to communicate those uncertainties to decision-makers. While many components of the necessary research are mature (i.e., climate projection data), there has been little effort to develop proven tools for long-term planning in this space. The combination of chronic and acute stressors, spatial and temporal uncertainties, and interdependencies among infrastructure sectors coalesce into a complex decision space. By applying known methods from decision science and data analysis, we can work to demonstrate the value of an interdisciplinary approach to climate-hazard decision making for longterm infrastructure planning.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Improving Longitudinal Impedance of Inductive Inserts

In this article, we discuss methods for improving the longitudinal impedance of inductive inserts used for space charge compensation in the proton storage ring (PSR) at Los Alamos Neutron Science Center (LANSCE) Facility. The PSR relies on inductive inserts to counteract the capacitive impedance produced by the space charge of the proton beam, which can otherwise lead to beam debunching. Existing inductive inserts, which utilize Toshiba M4C21A ferrite, have been effective but require heating to reduce resistive components that can cause instabilities at higher frequencies. This article explores the potential of alternative ferrite materials, specifically National Magnetics C2050, to enhance the performance of these inserts by reducing the need for heating and minimizing resistive impedance. Through both analytical modeling and CST Particle Studio simulations, it is demonstrated that optimized ferrite materials and geometries can significantly improve space charge compensation while mitigating instability risks, ultimately enhancing the performance of the PSR.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2025

X-Ray Imaging and Spectroscopy Mission

The X-Ray Imaging and Spectroscopy Mission (XRISM) is a joint mission between the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) in collaboration with the European Space Agency (ESA). In addition to the three space agencies, universities and research institutes from Japan, North America, and Europe have joined to contribute to developing satellite and onboard instruments, data-processing software, and the scientific observation program. XRISM is the successor to the ASTRO-H (Hitomi) mission, which ended prematurely in 2016. Its primary science goal is to examine astrophysical problems with precise, high-resolution X-ray spectroscopy. XRISM promises to discover new horizons in X-ray astronomy. It carries a 6 × 6 pixelized X-ray microcalorimeter on the focal plane of an X-ray mirror assembly (Resolve) and a co-aligned X-ray CCD camera (Xtend) that covers the same energy band over a large field of view. XRISM utilizes the Hitomi heritage, but all designs were reviewed. The attitude and orbit control system was improved in hardware and software. The spacecraft was launched from the JAXA Tanegashima Space Center on 2023 September 6 (UTC). During the in-orbit commissioning phase, the onboard components were activated. Although the gate valve protecting the Resolve sensor with a thin beryllium X-ray entrance window was not yet opened, scientific observation started in 2024 February with the planned performance verification observation program. The nominal observation program commenced with the following guest observation program beginning in 2024 September.

Astronomy and AstroPhysics↗

DOE OSTI2024

The Potential of Hydrogeodesy to Address Water-Related and Sustainability Challenges

Increasing climatic and human pressures are changing the world's water resources and hydrological processes at unprecedented rates. Understanding these changes requires comprehensive monitoring of water resources. Hydrogeodesy, the science that measures the Earth's solid and aquatic surfaces, gravity field, and their changes over time, delivers a range of novel monitoring tools that are complementary to traditional hydrological methods. It encompasses geodetic technologies such as Altimetry, Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR), Gravimetry, and Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS). Beyond quantifying these changes, there is a need to understand how hydrogeodesy can contribute to more ambitious goals dealing with water-related and sustainability sciences. Addressing this need, we combine a meta-analysis of over 3,000 articles to chart the range, trends, and applications of satellite-based hydrogeodesy with an expert elicitation that systematically assesses the potential of hydrogeodesy. We find a growing body of literature relating to the advancements in hydrogeodetic methods, their accuracy and precision, and their inclusion in hydrological modeling, with a considerably smaller portion related to understanding hydrological processes, water management, and sustainability sciences. The meta-analysis also shows that while lakes, groundwater and glaciers are commonly monitored by these technologies, wetlands or permafrost could benefit from a wider range of applications. In turn, the expert elicitation envisages the potential of hydrogeodesy to help solve the 23 Unsolved Questions of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences and advance knowledge as guidance toward a safe operating space for humanity. It also highlights how this potential can be maximized by combining hydrogeodetic technologies simultaneously, exploiting artificial intelligence, and accurately integrating other Earth science disciplines. Finally, we call for a coordinated way forward to include hydrogeodesy in tertiary education and broaden its application to water-related and sustainability sciences in order to exploit its full potential.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

EarthShine: Observing our world as an exoplanet from the surface of the Moon

NASA’s return to the Moon coincides with explosive growth in exoplanet discovery. Missions are being formulated to search for habitable planets orbiting other stars, making this the ideal time to deploy an instrument suite to the lunar surface to help us recognize a habitable exoplanet when we see it. We present EarthShine, a technically mature, three-instrument suite to observe the whole Earth from the Moon as an exoplanet proxy. EarthShine data will validate and improve models critical for designing missions to image and characterize exoplanets, thus informing observing strategies for flagship missions to directly image exoplanets. EarthShine will answer interconnected questions in Earth and lunar science, exoplanets, and astrobiology, related to the credo “follow the water.” EarthShine can take advantage of current NASA programs to conduct science from the Moon with low-cost, mature space hardware to reduce risk and assure success. Like the 1968 Apollo Earthrise image of our home planet, lonely in the black sky, the appeal of EarthShine to a multidisciplinary array of researchers in Earth Science, Planetary Science, and astrophysics will maximize both its scientific impact and its impact on the general public.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Nearby stellar substructures in the Galactic halo from DESI Milky Way Survey Year 1 Data Release

We report five nearby ($d_{\mathrm{helio}} < 5$ kpc) stellar substructures in the Galactic halo from a subset of 138 661 stars in the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Milky Way Survey Year 1 Data Release. With an unsupervised clustering algorithm, HDBSCAN*, these substructures are independently identified in Integrals of Motion ($E_{\rm tot}$, $L_{\rm z}$, $\log {J_r}$, $\log {J_z}$) space and Galactocentric cylindrical velocity space ($V_{R}$, $V_{\phi }$, $V_{z}$). We associate all identified clusters with known nearby substructures (Helmi streams, M18-Cand10/MMH-1, Sequoia, Antaeus, and ED-2) previously reported in various studies. With metallicities precisely measured by DESI, we confirm that the Helmi streams, M18-Cand10, and ED-2 are chemically distinct from local halo stars. We have characterized the chemodynamic properties of each dynamic group, including their metallicity dispersions, to associate them with their progenitor types (globular cluster or dwarf galaxy). Our approach for searching substructures with HDBSCAN* reliably detects real substructures in the Galactic halo, suggesting that applying the same method can lead to the discovery of new substructures in future DESI data. With more stars from future DESI data releases and improved astrometry from the upcoming Gaia Data Release 4, we will have a more detailed blueprint of the Galactic halo, offering a significant improvement in our understanding of the formation and evolutionary history of the Milky Way Galaxy.

dynamics↗

DOE OSTI2020

Evaluating diffusion and the thermodynamic factor for binary ionic mixtures

Molecular dynamics (MD) simulations are a powerful tool for the calculation of transport properties in mixtures. Not only are MD simulations capable of treating multicomponent systems, they are also applicable over a wide range of temperatures and densities. In plasma physics, this is particularly important for applications such as inertial confinement fusion. While many studies have focused on the effect of plasma coupling on transport properties, here we focus on the effects of mixing. We compute the thermodynamic factor, a measure of ideal/non-ideal mixing, for three binary ionic mixtures. Here, we consider mixtures of hydrogen and carbon, hydrogen and argon, and argon and carbon, each at 500 randomly generated state points in the warm dense matter and plasma regimes. The calculated thermodynamic factors indicate different mixing behavior across phase space, which can significantly affect the corresponding mutual diffusion coefficients. As MD simulations are still computationally expensive, we apply modern data science tools to predict the thermodynamic factor over a large phase space. Further, we propose a more accurate approximation to the mutual diffusion coefficient than the commonly applied Darken relation.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

LISA Galactic binaries in the Roman Galactic Bulge Time-Domain Survey

ABSTRACT Short-period Galactic white dwarf binaries detectable by Laser Interferometer Space Antenna are the only guaranteed persistent sources for multimessenger gravitational-wave astronomy. Large-scale surveys in the 2020s present an opportunity to conduct preparatory science campaigns to maximize the science yield from future multimessenger targets. The Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope Galactic Bulge Time-Domain Survey will (in its Reference Survey design) image seven fields in the Galactic Bulge approximately 40 000 times each. Although the Reference Survey cadence is optimized for detecting exoplanets via microlensing, it is also capable of detecting short-period white dwarf binaries. In this paper, we present forecasts for the number of detached short-period binaries the Roman Galactic Bulge Time-Domain Survey will discover and the implications for the design of electromagnetic surveys. Although population models are highly uncertain, we find a high probability that the baseline survey will detect of the order of ∼5 detached white dwarf binaries. The Reference Survey would also have a ${\gtrsim} 20\,{\rm per\,cent}$ chance of detecting several known benchmark white dwarf binaries at the distance of the Galactic Bulge.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2023

Statistical Learning for Nonlinear Model Reduction from Local Simulations of Stochastic and Particle- and Agent-Based Systems

Stochastic physical systems across the sciences that have very high-dimensional state spaces, with a large number of fast degrees of freedom that force direct simulators to proceed by integration steps that are orders of magnitude smaller than events of interests (e.g., particle collisions). Examples range from molecular motion to dynamics of large populations of cells. A grand challenge in the simulation and understanding of such systems is the systematic construction of accurate, interpretable, reduced models, enabling faster simulations, revealing fundamental properties of the dynamics, and predicting phenomena of interest that the original simulator could not reached with sufficient accuracy or within a given computational budget. In this projected we developed novel statistical estimation/machine learning techniques for analyzing and building empirical reduced models for important families of high-dimensional stochastic systems, in particular: - we developed techniques for estimating interaction kernels in interacting particle- and agent-based systems, which are ubiquitous in Physics, Biology and many other sciences, given observed trajectories of the system; - we developed techniques for nonlinear model reduction for high-dimensional stochastic systems that have a small number of unknown, nonlinear slow variables, and a large number of fast modes, that are possibly of large magnitude, given observed short trajectories of the system in the form of bursts of trajectories from different initial conditions; - we developed novel techniques for estimating linear dynamical systems on graphs when both the dynamics and the underlying graph are unknown, and we have a sparse set of space-time observations; - we considered the problem of estimating an unknown nonlinear observation function of a standard process (e.g. Brownian motion), so that we can recognized if an observed dynamics is "just" a nonlinear version of a known dynamics; we also developed benchmarks for learning algorithms aimed at learning and classifying diffusion processes.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 results: Simulation-based cosmological inference with wavelet harmonics, scattering transforms, and moments of weak lensing mass maps. II. cosmological results

Here, we present a simulation-based cosmological analysis using a combination of Gaussian and non-Gaussian statistics of the weak lensing mass (convergence) maps from the first three years of the Dark Energy Survey. We implement the following: (1) second and third moments; (2) wavelet phase harmonics; (3) the scattering transform. Our analysis is fully based on simulations, spans a space of seven 𝑤 Cold Dark Matter (𝑤⁢ CDM) cosmological parameters, and forward models the most relevant sources of systematics inherent in the data: masks, noise variations, clustering of the sources, intrinsic alignments, and shear and redshift calibration. We implement a neural network compression of the summary statistics, and we estimate the parameter posteriors using a simulation-based inference approach. Including and combining different non-Gaussian statistics is a powerful tool that strongly improves constraints over Gaussian statistics (in our case, the second moments); in particular, the figure of merit (𝑆 8 , Ω m ) is improved by 70% (Λ ⁢CDM) and 90% (𝑤 ⁢CDM). When all the summary statistics are combined, we achieve a 2% constraint on the amplitude of fluctuations parameter 𝑆 8 ≡ 𝜎 8 ⁢(Ω m /0.3) 0.5 , obtaining 𝑆 8 = 0.794 ±0.017 (Λ⁢ CDM) and 𝑆 8 = 0.817 ±0.021 (𝑤 ⁢CDM), and a ∼10% constraint on Ω m , obtaining Ω m =0.259 ±0.025 (Λ ⁢CDM) and Ω m = 0.273 ±0.029 (𝑤⁢ CDM). In the context of the 𝑤⁢ CDM scenario, these statistics also strengthen the constraints on the parameter 𝑤, obtaining 𝑤 <−0.72. The constraints from different statistics are shown to be internally consistent (with a 𝑝-value>0.1 for all combinations of statistics examined). We compare our results to other weak lensing results from the first three years of the Dark Energy Survey data, finding good consistency; we also compare with results from external datasets, such as planck constraints from the cosmic microwave background, finding statistical agreement, with discrepancies no greater than <2.2⁢𝜎.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Comparing multi-model ensemble simulations with observations and decadal projections of upper atmospheric variations following the Hunga eruption

The Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha'apai Model–Observation Comparison (HTHH–MOC) project aims to comprehensively investigate the evolution of volcanic water vapor and sulfur emissions and their subsequent atmospheric impacts and underlying response mechanisms using state-of-the-art global climate models. This study evaluates multi-model ensemble simulations participating in the HTHH–MOC free-run experiment with climate projections for 10 years (2022–2032). Model results are evaluated against satellite observations to assess their ability to reproduce the observed evolution of stratospheric water vapor, aerosols, temperature, and ozone from 2022 to 2024. The participating models accurately capture the observed distribution patterns and associated upper atmospheric responses, providing confidence for their future projections. Model simulations suggest that the Hunga eruption-induced stratospheric water vapor anomaly lasts 4–7 years, with a water vapor e-folding time of 31–43 months. This prolonged water vapor perturbation leads to significant stratospheric and mesospheric cooling, resulting in significant ozone loss in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere for 7–10 years. Comparisons between simulations with both SO 2 and H 2 O emissions and those with H 2 O-only emissions indicate that the pronounced dipole response with upper-stratospheric cooling and lower-stratospheric warming is driven by the combined effects of SO 2 and H 2 O injections. These results highlight the prolonged atmospheric impacts of the Hunga eruption and the potential critical role of stratospheric water vapor in modulating long-term atmospheric chemistry and dynamics.

Zhuo, Zhihong [Univ. of Quebec, Montreal, QC (Cana↗