Uncertainty analysis of crack growth rate measurements and implications for stress corrosion cracking experiments.
Abstract not provided.
Nation, Brendan L↗
SEARCH · Engineering Papers
Results for “Measurement uncertainty”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Multilevel Estimators for Measures of Robustness in Optimization under Uncertainty.
Abstract not provided.
Menhorn, Friedrich↗
Beam Dynamics of the Muon $g\textrm{-}2$ Experiment
The Muon $g\textrm{-}2$ Experiment (E989) at Fermilab aims to measure the muon anomalous magnetic moment $a_{\mu}$ with unprecedented precision, potentially uncovering physics beyond the Standard Model of particle physics. The result based on Runs 1-3, released in 2023, achieved a precision of 0.20 ppm. The experiment circulates muons in a storage ring, measuring $a_{\mu}$ from decay positron time and energy measurements collected with calorimeters. To achieve the required accuracy, it is crucial to measure and control the magnetic field in the ring with high precision. Beam dynamics corrections are necessary for muons not orbiting exactly in the midplane, for their oscillations, and for electric field effects. Highly accurate beam dynamics simulations are instrumental for quantifying and validating the beam dynamics corrections, ultimately improving the precision of the $a_{\mu}$ measurement and facilitating the achievement of the ambitious $70\:\mathrm{ppb}$ systematic uncertainty goal. The measured field data was incorporated into models for simulations using three codes: \texttt{gm2ringsim} (an internal Geant4-based code), \textit{COSY INFINITY}, and \textit{BMAD}. The advantages of \texttt{gm2ringsim} include using CAD-based geometry and modelling the detector effects. \textit{COSY INFINITY} is a highly accurate and efficient code that uses high-order differential-algebraic transfer maps, precise fringe field calculations, and advanced symplectification methods. Symplectification is important for maintaining the physical correctness of the muon beam behaviour with high precision over the storage time, ensuring conservation of phase space volume and preventing artificial damping or excitation of particle motion. The experiment completed its final Run 6 in July 2023, collecting 21 times more data than the previous BNL experiment. Analyses of data from Runs 4-6 are ongoing, with results planned for release in 2025, potentially resolving the current tension between experiment and theory.
43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
Gaseous Ammonia Measurements at the S2 site for the CoURAGE campaign
This dataset contains measurements of gaseous ammonia (NH3(g)) at the S2 (Mt. Airy) site during the CoURAGE study from April to June 2025. This dataset includes 10-minute and 30-minute average NH3(g) concentrations in units of micrograms per cubic meter. Measurements are conducted with an AiRRmonia NH3 analyzer manufactured by RR Mechatronics. A data flag of -999 indicates missing data due to the instrument being offline (maintenance, calibration, etc.) while a data flag of -888 indicates measurements below the instrument LOD (LOD = 0.1 micrograms per cubic meter). The uncertainty of the measurements is 15%.
AiRRmonia NH3 analyzer↗
An Approach to Quantify Uncertainty in Response Expansion Using Sparse Measurement Sets.
Abstract not provided.
Lopp, Garret Kenneth↗
Methodology for deriving the telescope focus function and its uncertainty for a heterodyne pulsed Doppler lidar
Doppler lidars provide two measured parameters, radial velocity and signal-to-noise ratio, from which winds and turbulent properties are routinely derived. Attenuated backscatter, which gives quantitative information on aerosols, clouds, and precipitation in the atmosphere, can be used in conjunction with the winds and turbulent properties to create a sophisticated classification of the state of the atmospheric boundary layer. Calculating attenuated backscatter from the signal-to-noise ratio requires accurate knowledge of the telescope focus function, which is usually unavailable. Inaccurate assumptions of the telescope focus function can significantly deform attenuated backscatter profiles, even if the instrument is focused at infinity. Here, we present a methodology for deriving the telescope focus function using a co-located ceilometer for pulsed heterodyne Doppler lidars. The method was tested with Halo Photonics StreamLine and StreamLine XR Doppler lidars but should also be applicable to other pulsed heterodyne Doppler lidar systems. The method derives two parameters of the telescope focus function, the effective beam diameter and the effective focal length of the telescope. Additionally, the method provides uncertainty estimates for the retrieved attenuated backscatter profile arising from uncertainties in deriving the telescope function, together with standard measurement uncertainties from the signal-to-noise ratio. The method is best suited for locations where the absolute difference in aerosol extinction at the ceilometer and Doppler lidar wavelengths is small.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Measuring cosmological distances using cluster edges as a standard ruler
ABSTRACT The line-of-sight velocity dispersion profile of galaxy clusters exhibits a ‘kink’ corresponding to the spatial extent of orbiting galaxies. Because the spatial extent of a cluster is correlated with the amplitude of the velocity dispersion profile, we can utilize this feature as a gravity-calibrated standard ruler. Specifically, the amplitude of the velocity dispersion data allows us to infer the physical cluster size. Consequently, observations of the angular scale of the ‘kink’ in the profile can be translated into a distance measurement to the cluster. Assuming the relation between cluster radius and cluster velocity dispersion can be calibrated from simulations, we forecast that with existing data from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey we will be able to measure the Hubble constant with 3.0 per cent precision. Implementing our method with data from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) will result in a 1.3 per cent measurement of the Hubble constant. Adding cosmological supernova data improves the uncertainty of the DESI measurement to 0.7 per cent. While these error estimates are statistical only, they provide strong motivation for pursuing the necessary simulation program required to characterize and calibrate the systematic uncertainties impacting our proposed measurement. Whether or not our proposed measurement can in fact result in competitive H0 constraints will depend on what the eventual systematics floor for this method is.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
Integrating Data Sources for Improved Safeguards and Accountancy of Electrochemical Fuel Reprocessing Systems. Final Report
Electrochemical reprocessing (also commonly known as “pyroprocessing”) of used nuclear fuel is an alternative to aqueous reprocessing that confers a number of advantages, including the ability to process more recently-discharged fuel, smaller resultant waste volumes, and the lack of isolation of plutonium in the product stream. While electrochemical reprocessing systems have seen a significant research and development effort, nuclear safeguards and security of these systems remains under-developed, particularly given the significant differences in operating environment and process flowsheet compared with established aqueous methods. Objective 4 of DOE’s nuclear energy research and development activities in Nuclear Energy Research and Development Roadmap is: “Understand and minimize the risks of nuclear proliferation and terrorism.” Material Control & Accountancy (MC&A) programs at nuclear processing plants deter and detect theft and diversion of nuclear material by both outside and inside adversaries. Empirical modeling and data analytics of online measurements and state indicators can improve the timeliness of detection and reduce the uncertainty in accountancy measures. To support the development and demonstration of such methods, data are needed that capture expected measurement values collected throughout electrochemical reprocessing facilities. A review of the available literature of current research in measurements for electrochemical reprocessing systems identified twenty-two candidate measurement methodologies, which characterize fuel/salt composition, concentrations of various isotopes and elements, and operational parameters throughout the reprocessing facility. Four primary measurement methodologies have been simulated based on either physical simulations or empirical correlations: gamma emissions, neutron emissions, hybrid k-edge densitometry (HKED), and cyclic voltammetry. Initial investigation into the use of these measures for process monitoring and detection suggests the approach is viable and worthy of further investigation. This report summarizes efforts to generate signatures of key measurements during operation of electrochemical reprocessing facilities and initial investigation of data analytics to support process monitoring, diversion detection, and accountancy.
11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
Property Measurements of LiF-NaF-KF Molten Salts Doped with Corrosion Products and Oxygen
Measurements of thermophysical properties of molten salts are needed for modeling and simulation activities that support the development of molten salt reactor (MSR) technologies. Properties of interest including transition temperatures, phase behavior, heat capacity, density, volumetric thermal expansion, surface tension, viscosity, thermal diffusivity, thermal conductivity, and vapor pressure are being performed at Argonne. Results of these property measurements are suitable for use in evaluating reactor performance during startup and the early operating life of the reactor. Ingressions of oxygen and moisture into the fuel salt are expected to occur at different times during the operating life of the reactor due to system leaks, maintenance, and refueling activities. The presence of these environmental contaminants induces corrosion of structural materials. The introduction of corrosion-derived species, oxygen and moisture is expected to affect the physical and chemical properties of the salt and operation of the reactor. Previous work performed at Argonne evaluated the effects of fission product dopants on the thermal properties of eutectic LiF-NaF-KF (FLiNaK). Properties of FLiNaK are commonly used to represent those of fluoride-bearing fuel salts. Metallic corrosion products such as chromium and nickel ions together with dissolved oxygen are expected to affect system redox differently than the accumulation of fission products. Work summarized in this report was performed to measure the effects of corrosion products and dissolved oxygen on the phase transitions, and specific heat capacity of FLiNaK. Thermophysical property measurements were made using four salts that were prepared by doping aliquots of a eutectic mixture of FLiNaK with surrogate corrosion products. Controlled additions of CrF 3 and NiF 2 were used as surrogates for corrosion product contamination anticipated during extended reactor operations in which fuel salt is in contact with steel reactor components. Controlled additions of UF 4 from two sources containing known amounts of UO 2 at different concentrations were used to represent oxygen contamination. The phase transitions and specific heat capacities of the four salts were measured by using differential scanning calorimetry. Measurements were made at temperatures spanning the range of 500−900 °C, which is the expected operating range of MSRs. Measured property values were compared to values measured previously with eutectic FLiNaK without dopants. Differences between property values measured for the doped and non-doped salts were compared with the uncertainties of the measurements to determine the significance of the effect of corrosion products and oxygen on salt properties.
22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
Deriving cloud droplet number concentration from surface-based remote sensors with an emphasis on lidar measurements
Abstract. Given the importance of constraining cloud droplet number concentrations (Nd) in low-level clouds, we explore two methods for retrieving Nd from surface-based remote sensing that emphasize the information content in lidar measurements. Because Nd is the zeroth moment of the droplet size distribution (DSD), and all remote sensing approaches respond to DSD moments that are at least 2 orders of magnitude greater than the zeroth moment, deriving Nd from remote sensing measurements has significant uncertainty. At minimum, such algorithms require the extrapolation of information from two other measurements that respond to different moments of the DSD. Lidar, for instance, is sensitive to the second moment (cross-sectional area) of the DSD, while other measures from microwave sensors respond to higher-order moments. We develop methods using a simple lidar forward model that demonstrates that the depth to the maximum in lidar-attenuated backscatter (Rmax) is strongly sensitive to Nd when some measure of the liquid water content vertical profile is given or assumed. Knowledge of Rmax to within 5 m can constrain Nd to within several tens of percent. However, operational lidar networks provide vertical resolutions of > 15 m, making a direct calculation of Nd from Rmax very uncertain. Therefore, we develop a Bayesian optimal estimation algorithm that brings additional information to the inversion such as lidar-derived extinction and radar reflectivity near the cloud top. This statistical approach provides reasonable characterizations of Nd and effective radius (re) to within approximately a factor of 2 and 30 %, respectively. By comparing surface-derived cloud properties with MODIS satellite and aircraft data collected during the MARCUS and CAPRICORN II campaigns, we demonstrate the utility of the methodology.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Evaluation of Significance Tests on Stack Sample Data
In October 2023, external assessors visiting LANL’s Rad-NESHAP team reviewed the annual source term documentation package for stack emissions. This document discusses how the team uses significance tests to determine whether or not a measurement represents an actual detection of emitted radioactive material. The significance tests used in the evaluation compare the measured sample result to the Minimum Detectable Activity (MDA) for the sample; to the uncertainty of that measurement; and to the mean blank sample for the same time period. The blank test uses the average blank plus 2-standard deviations (2σ) of the blank results as a comparison threshold for this final evaluation.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Measurement of differential t-channel single top (anti)quark production cross-sections at 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector
The production of single top quarks and top antiquarks via the t-channel exchange of a virtual W boson is measured in proton-proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV at the Large Hadron Collider. The full Run 2 data sample recorded with the ATLAS detector in the years 2015–2018 is used, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 140 fb−1. The absolute and normalised production cross-sections are measured differentially as a function of the transverse momentum and absolute rapidity of the top quark and top antiquark. In addition, the ratio of top quark to top antiquark production cross-sections is measured. The measured distributions are compared with next-to-leading-order quantum chromodynamics predictions obtained with different combinations of matrix-element generators, parton-shower programs and proton parton distribution functions, as well as to next-to-next-to-leading-order calculations. Overall, good agreement is observed between the measurements and the theoretical predictions. For most measured distributions, the sensitivity to differences between the predictions is limited by the systematic uncertainties in the measurement. The measured differential distributions are also interpreted in an effective field theory approach to constrain the Wilson-Coefficient CQq3,1$$ {C}_{Qq}^{3,1} $$ associated with a four-quark operator. The interpretation accounts for the effect of the selection efficiency, which is altered significantly by non-zero contributions from CQq3,1$$ {C}_{Qq}^{3,1} $$.
Aad, G↗
The heat transfer coefficient associated with a moving packed bed of silica particles flowing through parallel plates
Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) with thermal energy storage has the potential to be a renewable energy technology with long duration, inexpensive energy storage. Higher temperature operation increases the conversion efficiency and reduces the cost of energy storage. Several emerging CSP designs utilize particles as the solar receiver due to their high temperature stability and low cost. In some designs, the particles are also used as the thermal energy storage (TES) media. In either configuration, an energy transfer is required between the hot particles and the working fluid in the power cycle in a Particle-to-Fluid Heat Exchanger (PtFHX). Understanding the heat transfer between a moving packed bed and a stationary surface is critical to the successful design of a PtFHX. In this paper, a test facility is described in which a moving packed bed of silica sand with particle size 100–600 μm is introduced into the channel formed by two parallel plates, one of which is heated. The effective static thermal conductivity of the particles used for the test are separately measured over the entire range of test temperatures. The inlet and outlet bulk temperatures of the particle flow are measured as are the surface temperatures at several axial locations along the centerline of the plate. The result is the measurement of heat transfer coefficient as a function of temperature for several velocities. The uncertainty of the measurements is presented and the results are compared to model results found in the literature.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Measurement of Photoneutrons from Depleted Uranium and Comparison Study Using MCNPX-PoliMi
High-energy photon interrogation is a nondestructive technique that is used to detect special nuclear materials and characterize nuclear waste. The development of such systems is complex and requires Monte Carlo simulations to optimize system performance. Monte Carlo simulations rely on various scattering, absorption, and photonuclear cross-section data. While the scattering and absorption cross-section data have been extensively studied and validated with experiments, the results obtained from photonuclear simulations are often found to underpredict measured results, indicating uncertainties in the photonuclear cross sections themselves. Thus, there is a need for new measured results that can be used to quantify underpredictions in simulations using photonuclear cross-section data. In the present work, we interrogated depleted uranium with a 9-MV electron linac and detected photoneutrons with trans-stilbene organic scintillators. The measurement of photoneutrons with organic scintillators is challenging due to the presence of the intense photon flux, which causes issues such as pulse pile-up, detector saturation, and poor signal-to-background ratio. To mitigate these challenges, we used iron and polyethylene shielding of varying thicknesses around the depleted uranium target and a neural network–based digital pulse processing algorithm to recover neutron and photon information from piled-up events. Our goal was to compare the measured photoneutron count rate with the simulated rate obtained using the MCNPX-PoliMi transport code. For a light output window of 0.28 to 2.67 MeVee (1.66- to 6.85-MeV proton recoil energy), we found that the simulated count rate obtained using the ENDF/B-VII photonuclear cross-section library underpredicts the measured rate by 32.8% 3.2%. Additionally, we compared the simulated and measured photoneutron light output distributions. For the least thicknesses of shielding, the simulation was found to underpredict measurements in the 0.70- to 2.67-MeVee light output window. For the greatest thicknesses of shielding, the simulation was found to underpredict the measurement across the entire light output window of 0.28 to 2.67 MeVee.
98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
Deeply Uncertain: Comparing Methods of Uncertainty Quantification in Deep Learning Algorithms [Slides]
Deep learning is used in many applications in the physical sciences. In those sciences we are used to having uncertainty on every measurement or prediction. In the last years, many methods have been put forth for uncertainty quantification: Bayesian Neural Networks, Concrete Dropout, and Deep Ensembles. Uncertainty in deep learning is often divided into aleatoric or irreducible and epistemic or reducible. The problem remains: Which uncertainty quantification method should be chosen? How are those results interpreted?
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
AWCC Simulations
Neutron well counters provide a means to measure fissile mass by detecting coincident neutrons, which is a unique signature to fission. For coincidence counting, mass is determined using a calibration curve established with items that have the same material characteristics. Multiplicity analysis solves the point model equations for mass using known detector parameters. In both cases, mass measurements may exhibit a bias due to item characteristics and should be corrected for. Experiments can be done to estimate bias and material effects, but they require having both the well counter and the material well defined. In pursuit of estimating measurement bias and uncertainty in a High Efficiency Neutron Counter (HENC), an MCNP simulation was matched to measurements performed with an Active Well Coincidence Counter (AWCC) to de ne a neutron source term. The neutron source term will be used to predict measurement performance of similar material types in a HENC.
12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
Measurements of jet yield and acoplanarity using semi-inclusive $\gamma_{\text{dir}}$+jet and $\pi^{0}$+jet distributions in $p$+$p$ and central Au+Au collisions at $\sqrt{s_{NN}} = 200$ GeV by STAR
The STAR collaboration presents measurements of semi-inclusive distributions of charged jets recoiling from high transverse energy (E T ) direct photon and π 0 triggers in p+p and central Au+Au collisions at $\sqrt{s_{NN}} = 200$ GeV. Jets are reconstructed from charged particles using the anti-k T algorithm with jet resolution parameters R = 0.2 and 0.5. The large uncorrelated background in central Au+Au collisions is corrected using a mixed-event technique. This enables a jet measurement extending to low transverse momentum and large R with well-controlled systematic uncertainties. We present measurements of the jet R dependence of suppression, intra-jet broadening, and acoplanarity of π 0 +jet and γ dir +jet for trigger E T between 9–20 GeV.
Anderson, Derek↗
Measurement of Medium-induced Modification of Jet Yield and Acoplanarity Using Semi-inclusive \(\gamma _{\mathrm {dir}}+\)jet and \(\pi ^{0}+\)jet Distributions in \(p+p\) and Central Au\(+\)Au Collisions at \(\sqrt {s_{NN}} = 200\) GeV by STAR
The STAR Collaboration presents measurements of semi-inclusive distributions of charged jets recoiling from high transverse energy ($E_T$) direct photon and $π^0$ triggers in $p+p$ and central Au+Au collisions at $\sqrt{sNN}$=200 GeV. Jets are reconstructed from charged particles using the anti-$k_T$ algorithm with jet resolution parameters R=0.2 and 0.5. The large uncorrelated background in central Au+Au collisions is corrected using a mixed-event technique. This enables a jet measurement extending to low transverse momentum and large R with well-controlled systematic uncertainties. We present measurements of the jet R dependence of suppression, intra-jet broadening, and acoplanarity of $π^0$+jet and $γ_{dir}$+jet for trigger $E_T (E_{T}^{trig})$ between 9–20 GeV.
72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗