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DOE OSTI2022

A crystal plasticity finite element method modeling of Zircaloy with hydride phases based on scanning electron micrographs

This work developed a microstructure-based finite element model to predict the stress state of alloys with second phase inclusions. Quantitative microstructural details extracted from scanning electron microscopy (SEM) images were used to generate heterogeneous microstructures including the morphology and spatial distribution of hydrides. Generation of digital microstructure was achieved through two steps of tessellations using software Neper and Matlab. The process is demonstrated using an example of Zircaloy material with secondary phases of hydrides dispersed within and stress-strain response of Zircaloy containing hydrides was predicted. The constitutive material model for Zircaloy in this study was based on crystal plasticity theory which considers the hexagonal close-packed (HCP) atomic structure of Zircaloy material. The hydrides were modeled as isotropic elasto-plastic material. A parametric study had been conducted to understand the effect of volume fraction, and lamellae thickness of the hydride phase on the mechanical properties of the overall material. Results can help designers to alter the manufacturing process to obtain the enhanced mechanical properties for components used in nuclear applications made by Zircaloy material.

Kulkarni, Shank S.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Reliability analysis of continuous fiber composite laminates

A composite lamina may be viewed as a homogeneous solid whose directional strengths are random variables. Calculation of the lamina reliability under a multi-axial stress state can be approached by either assuming that the strengths act separately (modal or independent action), or that they interact through a quadratic interaction criterion. The independent action reliability may be calculated in closed form, while interactive criteria require simulations; there is currently insufficient data to make a final determination of preference between them. Using independent action for illustration purposes, the lamina reliability may be plotted in either stress space or in a non-dimensional representation. For the typical laminated plate structure, the individual lamina reliabilities may be combined in order to produce formal upper and lower bounds of reliability for the laminate, similar in nature to the bounds on properties produced from variational elastic methods. These bounds are illustrated for a (0/plus or minus 15)sub s Graphite/Epoxy (GR/EP) laminate. And addition, simple physically plausible phenomenological rules are proposed for redistribution of load after a lamina has failed. These rules are illustrated by application to (0/plus or minus 15)sub s and (90/plus or minus 45/0)sub s GR/EP laminates and results are compared with respect to the proposed bounds.

Thomas, David J.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Mechanical testing of PH13-8Mo H950 Steel for Xue-Wierzbicki Fracture Criterion Determination at 20° C and -40° C

Mechanical testing was conducted to collect the data needed to build a Xue-Wierzbicki (XW) fracture model for PH13-8 Mo H950 stainless steel (PH 13-8 SS). This model is intended for use in structural analysis of this material between room temperature and -40° C. Tests were performed on four different specimen geometries such that a range of stress states were characterized at room temperature and -40° C. Tensile tests on R5 tensile specimens were also performed to assess material anisotropy. Fracture toughness test were also conducted. The fracture toughness of this material at -40° C was 68% of the room-temperature value. Material strength generally increased with decreasing temperature while the opposite trend was observed for ductility. These trends were most pronounced for specimens with the largest stress triaxialities.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Neural network potentials with effective charge separation for non-equilibrium dynamics of ionic solids: a ZnO case study

Developing neural network potentials (NNPs) accurate under non-equilibrium dynamics is challenging, as such systems require extensive sampling beyond equilibrium phases. Here we construct high-fidelity NNPs for zinc oxide (ZnO), a polymorphic ionic solid, using density functional theory (DFT) reference data. To efficiently capture transitional configurations, we combine enhanced-sampling molecular dynamics with empirical potentials, data distillation, and pretraining on short-range atomic energies (A-Train), followed by transfer learning with DFT-relabeled datasets. This hierarchical approach improves transferability across polymorphs and stress states. We further introduce effective charge separation, treating long-range Coulombic terms analytically while short-range residual interactions are learned by the NNP. The optimal effective charges fall in the range 0.5–1.0 q e , consistent with dielectric-screened values derived from formal charges but distinct from Bader estimates. Motivated by this observation, we propose a simple data-driven protocol in which effective charges are optimized by comparing DFT reference energies with explicit Coulomb calculations, without additional NNP training. This strategy improves accuracy and transferability in DFT-level predictions of energies, forces, and stress. Together, these results provide a practical charge-selection framework for robust NNP development in ionic solids, enabling reliable simulation of polymorphic phase transformations and non-equilibrium dynamics.

Chemistry↗

DOE OSTI2021

Machine Learning Predicts the Timing and Shear Stress Evolution of Lab Earthquakes Using Active Seismic Monitoring of Fault Zone Processes

Abstract Machine learning (ML) techniques have become increasingly important in seismology and earthquake science. Lab‐based studies have used acoustic emission data to predict time‐to‐failure and stress state, and in a few cases, the same approach has been used for field data. However, the underlying physical mechanisms that allow lab earthquake prediction and seismic forecasting remain poorly resolved. Here, we address this knowledge gap by coupling active‐source seismic data, which probe asperity‐scale processes, with ML methods. We show that elastic waves passing through the lab fault zone contain information that can predict the full spectrum of labquakes from slow slip instabilities to highly aperiodic events. The ML methods utilize systematic changes in P‐wave amplitude and velocity to accurately predict the timing and shear stress during labquakes. The ML predictions improve in accuracy closer to fault failure, demonstrating that the predictive power of the ultrasonic signals improves as the fault approaches failure. Our results demonstrate that the relationship between the ultrasonic parameters and fault slip rate, and in turn, the systematically evolving real area of contact and asperity stiffness allow the gradient boosting algorithm to “learn” about the state of the fault and its proximity to failure. Broadly, our results demonstrate the utility of physics‐informed ML in forecasting the imminence of fault slip at the laboratory scale, which may have important implications for earthquake mechanics in nature.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Radiation effects on stress evolution and dimensional stability of large fusion energy structures

Here we assess the effects of neutron irradiation on the deformation and stress evolution of large-scale fusion energy structures. This is accomplished through non-linear finite element structural analysis of the coupled thermal and mechanical fields at the Beginning-Of-Life (BOL), at 45 dpa, and at 90 dpa. Radiation effects include volumetric swelling and the influence of radiation on the mechanical properties. The system studied here is a large section of a full inboard module of an integrated structure comprising the First Wall and Blanket (FW/B) of a Dual Cooled Lithium-Lead (DCLL) energy conversion unit in the Fusion Nuclear Science Facility (FNSF). The structural material is the ferritic/martensitic steel F82H. We analyze several radiation effects phenomena that can lead to significant impact on the mechanical design and lifetime of the structure. These include volumetric swelling effects on the assembly and disassembly of modules and the impact of spatial gradients in neutron damage and helium generation on deformation, stress evolution, and plastic strain accumulation. We show that the stress state is strongly influenced by the accumulation of swelling strains, radiation hardening and softening, and by spatial gradients in displacement damage and helium gas generation. Several key regions in the FW/B structure are identified where severe plastic strains accumulate and may be potential sites for failure, especially during cyclic reactor operations. We finally show that minimum gaps between Inboard (IB) blanket sectors must be present during assembly so as to avoid excessive stress and strain in FW/B modules critical regions and raising chances of failure. A range of structural displacements are shown, from as low as 4 mm at BOL for free side walls to as high as 46 mm at 90 dpa for fully constrained side walls.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Coupled Hydromechanical Modeling and Assessment of Induced Seismicity at FWU: Utilizing Time-Lapse VSP and Microseismic Data

The objective of this work is to utilize integrated geomechanics, field vertical seismic profile (VSP) and microseismic data to characterize the complex subsurface stress conditions at the Farnsworth Unit (FWU). The model is based on a five-spot sector model extracted from a primary geomechanical model. The five-spot well injection pattern is characterized by extensive reservoir characterization data, such well logs, extracted cores and borehole geophone data, to facilitate the detailed examination of stress changes and microseismic event occurrences. The study utilizes field vertical seismic volumes acquired from the injection well 13-10A. The seismic volumes successfully provided snapshots of the behavior of the reservoir at distinct times. The use of VSP and microseismic data provided direct and indirect estimates of the dynamic stress changes occurring in the overburden, reservoir and underburden rock formations. In order to illuminate the stress regions and identify rocks that have undergone inelastic failure, microseismic event occurrences were utilized. Microseismic activity has been detected at the FWU; further study of its locations, timing, and magnitude was needed to deduce the nature of the changing stress state. The results of the study revealed that microseismic events were successfully modeled within the Morrow B formation. Moment magnitudes of seismic events were within the same magnitudes for events in the reservoir, suggesting the suitability of the model. The results of the study showed that the computed moment magnitudes for seismic events were insignificant to warrant safety concerns. The study findings showed the usefulness of coupled hydromechanical models in predicting the subsurface stress changes associated with CO 2 injection. The knowledge gained from this study will serve as a guideline for industries planning to undertake underground CO 2 storage, and characterize the subsurface stress changes.

02 PETROLEUM↗

DOE OSTI2025

Phase-field modeling and experiments of dynamic fracture in single crystal quartz

Predicting the onset and characteristics of brittle fracture is important for a wide range of engineering and geological material applications. In this paper, we study important aspects of brittle fracture in α-quartz by phase-field modeling and experiments using a top-down approach. In the modeling framework, the work term in the Griffith energy balance is replaced with internal energy contributions that represent surface energy, thermal energy, and elastic strain energy stored in defects. This allows parametrization of individual energy contributions in terms of internal state variables and keeps track of energy partitioning after the onset of fracture. The path and history dependence of fracture is included in evolution laws for internal state variables, e.g., entropy evolution, while the energy remains a true potential. In the experimental part, dynamic compression experiments coupled with X-ray phase contrast imaging are performed on cube-like samples with a hole. In the top-down analysis, dynamic compression and three point bending experiments from the literature are simulated with the developed phase-field damage model. In conclusion, the fitted model highlights the strain rate, size, and stress state dependence of damage nucleation and evolution in single crystal α-quartz.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Effect of grain structure and strain rate on dynamic recrystallization and deformation behavior: A phase field-crystal plasticity model

Herein, a phase field (PF)-crystal plasticity (CP) model has been developed to study the effects of initial grain structures, recrystallized grain orientation, and strain rates on dynamic recrystallization and deformation behavior under stress states typical of the Shear Assisted Processing and Extrusion (ShAPE) process. The model takes the geometrically necessary dislocation density as the nucleation criterion for recrystallization and minimizes the deformation energy as the driving force of recrystallized grain growth. Using this model, the effects of grain orientations and strain rates on dynamic recrystallization and deformation behavior were simulated. The results demonstrate that (1) a polycrystalline structure with the texture observed in ShAPE process has the lowest yield stress under the ShAPE stress conditions, (2) the recrystallized grains with the texture observed in ShAPE process largely soften the materials, and (3) higher shear strain rate or rotation speed results in larger magnitude of material softening.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS2000

Electric Plasma Arc-Lamp Combustor Liner Durability Test System Developed

Silicon carbide matrix composites are candidate materials for high-temperature combustor liners. Because through-the-thickness thermal gradients are the primary cause of stress on combustor liners, a unique test facility was developed at the NASA Glenn Research Center at Lewis Field to simulate in-service pure thermal stress distributions in fiber reinforced silicon carbide cylinders. It was developed initially under Phase II of the High- Speed Research Program. This test stand can accommodate 8-in.-long test cylinders that have outer diameters of 4 in. and a wall thickness of about 0.08 to 0.12 in. One cylinder at a time is loaded vertically into the test stand. Water-cooled plates enclose the open ends of the cylinder and provide cooling. Load plates on the exterior side of the water-cooled plates provide support and compression loads. To evaluate a combustor liner material s potential performance, researchers induce thermal gradients with an axisymmetric, direct-current, electric arc within the cylinder while refrigerated air at a rate of 1.5 lb/sec impinges on the outside surface of the cylinder. The achievable through-the-thickness thermal gradient is predicted to be in excess of 200 C. The 8-in. long, 0.5-in.-diameter plasma arc emits full spectrum visible light; radiant intensity exceeds 300 Watts per square centimeters to produce temperatures in excess of 1500 C on materials with emissivity near unity. Because the system does not rely upon the combustion of fuels to achieve the related thermal conditions, ancillary environmental reactions with the sample are eliminated. The system incorporates a standard mechanical test frame, which can impose constant as well cyclical axial stresses up to 2200 lb upon the test piece. Silicon-carbide-fiber reinforced silicon carbide matrix composite cylinders were instrumented with thin-film thermocouples to obtain through-the-thickness thermal flux measurements. Inside wall temperatures reached 1200 C with only 250 A of current. One of the special features of this configuration is the creation of hoop stress states within the cylinder, which up this point have not been obtainable in planar coupon tests. This facility will allow various operational modes, including accelerated tests of thermal transients simulating the effects of repeated engine ignition as well as prescribed thermal and mechanical histories to simulate various duty cycle profiles. Tests can now be performed on thermal-barrier-coated metallic liners and ceramic composite liners that require a combination of high heat flux and controlled mechanical stresses.

Goldsby, Jon C.↗

NASA NTRS1949

Some New Problems on Shells and Thin Structures

Cylindrical shells of arbitrary section, reinforced by longitudinal and transverse members (stringers and ribs) are considered by us, for a sufficiently close spacing of the ribs, as in our previously published papers (references 1 end 2), as thin-walled orthotropic spatial systems at the cross-sections of which only axial (normal and shearing) forces can arise. The longitudinal bending and twisting moments, due to their weak effect on the stress state of the shell, are taken equal to zero. Along the longitudinal sections of the shell there may arise transverse forces in addition to the normal ~d shearing forces. Under the so-called static assumptions there is taken for the computation model of the shell a thin-walled spatial system consisting along its length (along a generator) of an infinite number of elementary strips capable of bending. Each of these strips is likened to a curved rod operating in each of its sections not only in tension (compression)but also in transverse bending and shear. The interaction between two adjoining transverse strips in the shell expresses itself in the transmission from one strip to the other of only the normal and shearing stresses. The static structure of the computation model here described is shown in figure 1, where the connections through which the normal and shearing stresses transmitted from one transverse strip to smother are indicated schematically by the rods located in the middle surface of the shell. In addition to the static hypothesis we introduce also geometric hypotheses. According to the latter the elongational deformations of the shell along lines parallel to the generator of its middle surface and the shear deformations in the middle surface, as ma+gitudes having . little effect on the state of the fundamental internal forces of the shell, are taken equal to zero. The deformations of the shell in our computational model are such that in the first place the lines of this surface perpendicular to the generator are inextensible at each point end in the second place the angles between the lines of principal curvature (the coordinate lines) which are straight before the deformation remain straight after the deformation.

Vlasov, V. S.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Investigation of the Leak Response of a Carbon-Fiber Laminate Loaded in Biaxial Tension

Designers of pressurized structures have been reluctant to use composite materials because of concerns over leakage. Biaxial stress states are expected to be the worst-case loading condition for allowing leakage to occur through microcracks. To investigate the leakage behavior under in-plane biaxial loading, a cruciform composite specimen was designed that would have a relatively large test section with a uniform 1:1 biaxial loading ratio. A 7.6-cm-square test section was desired for future investigations of the leakage response as a result of impact damage. Many iterations of the cruciform specimen were evaluated using finite element analysis to reduce stress concentrations and maximize the size of the uniform biaxial strain field. The final design allowed the specimen to go to relatively high biaxial strain levels without incurring damage away from the test section. The specimen was designed and manufactured using carbon/epoxy fabric with a four-ply-thick, quasi-isotropic, central test section. Initial validation and testing were performed on a specimen without impact damage. The specimen was tested to maximum biaxial strains of approximately 4500micro epsilon without apparent damage. A leak measurement system containing a pressurized cavity was clamped to the test section and used to measure the flow rate through the specimen. The leakage behavior of the specimen was investigated for pressure differences up to 172 kPa

Jackson, Wade C.↗

NASA NTRS2007

In-Plane Cracking Behavior and Ultimate Strength for 2D Woven and Braided Melt-Infiltrated SiC/SiC Composites Tensile Loaded in Off-Axis Fiber Directions

The tensile mechanical properties of ceramic matrix composites (CMC) in directions off the primary axes of the reinforcing fibers are important for architectural design of CMC components that are subjected to multi-axial stress states. In this study, 2D-woven melt-infiltrated (MI) SiC/SiC composite panels with balanced fiber content in the 0 degree and 90 degree directions were tensile loaded in-plane in the 0 degree direction and at 45 degree to this direction. In addition, a 2D triaxially-braided MI composite panel with balanced fiber content in the plus or minus 67 degree bias directions and reduced fiber content in the axial direction was tensile loaded perpendicular to the axial direction tows (i.e., 23 degrees from the bias fibers). Stress-strain behavior, acoustic emission, and optical microscopy were used to quantify stress-dependent matrix cracking and ultimate strength in the panels. It was observed that both off-axis loaded panels displayed higher composite onset stresses for through-thickness matrix cracking than the 2D-woven 0/90 panels loaded in the primary 0 degree direction. These improvements for off-axis cracking strength can in part be attributed to higher effective fiber fractions in the loading direction, which in turn reduces internal stresses on critical matrix flaws for a given composite stress. Also for the 0/90 panel loaded in the 45 degree direction, an improved distribution of matrix flaws existed due to the absence of fiber tows perpendicular to the loading direction. In addition, for the +67/0/-67 braided panel, the axial tows perpendicular to the loading direction were not only low in volume fraction, but were also were well separated from one another. Both off-axis oriented panels also showed relatively good ultimate tensile strength when compared to other off-axis oriented composites in the literature, both on an absolute strength basis as well as when normalized by the average fiber strength within the composites. Initial implications are discussed for constituent and architecture design to improve the directional cracking of SiC/SiC CMC components with MI matrices.

Morscher, Gregory N.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Design and Evaluation of Composite Fuselage Panels Subjected to Combined Loading Conditions

Methodologies used in industry for designing transport aircraft composite fuselage structures are discussed. Several aspects of the design methodologies are based on assumptions from metallic fuselage technology which requires that full-scale structures be tested with the actual loading conditions to validate the designs. Composite panels which represent crown and side regions of a fuselage structure are designed using this approach and tested in biaxial tension. Descriptions of the state-of-the-art test facilities used for this structural evaluation are presented. These facilities include a pressure-box test machine and a D-box test fixture in a combined loads test machine which are part of a Combined Loads Test System (COLTS). Nonlinear analysis results for a reference shell and a stiffened composite panel tested in the pressure-box test machine with and without damage are presented. The analytical and test results are compared to assess the ability of the pressure-box test machine to simulate a shell stress state with and without damage. A combined loads test machine for testing aircraft primary structures is described. This test machine includes a D-box test fixture to accommodate curved stiffened panels and the design features of this test fixture are presented. Finite element analysis results for a curved panel to be tested in the D-box test fixture are also discussed.

Ambur, Damodar R.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Seismic Elastic Double-Beam Characterization of Faults and Fractures for CO₂ Storage Site Selection

Site characterization for underground injection and storage of gigatonne-scale CO₂ requires reliable and cost-effective methods to detect and characterize faults and fractures and to assess their stress state and fault activation potential. This is critical, as wastewater injection and disposal have been shown to activate faults and induce earthquakes, and CO₂ leakage remains a key concern for long-term storage. In this project, we developed seismic methods to detect and characterize large-scale sedimentary and crystalline basement faults and associated small-scale fractures below conventional seismic imaging resolution using multicomponent (9C) surface seismic data. Machine learning was used to automatically interpret large-scale faults, providing key information for estimating the maximum magnitude of potential induced earthquakes. High-fidelity imaging was achieved by exploiting redundancy across multiple elastic wave modes, where independent images from different modes and frequencies cross-validate each other. We also used our nonlinear signal comparison (NLSC) method for ground roll removal, improving data quality in complex near-surface conditions. The methods were validated using field data acquired in central Montana. Results show that basement faults extend into the sedimentary section and that small-scale fractures are widespread above the basement. The inferred stress orientation is consistent with regional stress data, and the estimated maximum induced earthquake magnitude is small (Mw ~2.3). The developed workflow provides a practical approach for fault and fracture characterization and for assessing induced seismicity and leakage risk. It is directly applicable to CO₂ storage site selection and to other subsurface systems.

02 PETROLEUM↗

NASA NTRS1993

Geophysical models of Western Aphrodite-Niobe region: Venus

The new topography and gravitational field data for Venus expressed in spherical harmonics of degree and order up to 50 allow us to analyze the crust-mantle boundary relief and stress state of the Venusian lithosphere. In these models, we consider models in which convection is confined beneath a thick, buoyant lithosphere. We divide the convection regime into an upper mantle and lower mantle component. The lateral scales are smaller than on Earth. In these models, relative to Earth, convection is reflected in higher order terms of the gravitational field. On Venus geoid height and topography are highly correlated, although the topography appears to be largely compensated. We hypothesize that Venus topography for those wavelengths that correlate well with the geoid is partly compensated at the crust-mantle boundary, while for the others compensation may be distributed over the whole mantle. In turn the strong sensitivity of the stresses to parameters of the models of the external layers of Venus together with geological mapping allows us to begin investigations of the tectonics and geodynamics of the planet. For stress calculations we use a new technique of space- and time-dependent Green's response functions using Venus models with rheologically stratified lithosphere and mantle and a ductile lower crust. In the basic model of Venus the mean crust is 50-70 km thick, the density contrast across the crust-mantle boundary is in the range from 0.3 to 0.4 g/cm(exp -3). The thickness of a weak mantle zone may be from 350 to 1000 km. Strong sensitivity of calculated stress to various parameters of the layered model of Venus together with geological mapping and analysis of surface tectonic patterns allow us to investigate the tectonics and geodynamics of the planet. The results are presented in the form of maps of compression-extension and maximum shear stresses in the lithosphere and maps of crust-mantle boundary relief, which can be presented as a function of time. We have modeled the region of Western Aphrodite and the Niobe plains to get reasonable depths of compensation. Crust mantle boundary relief is calculated for Western Aphrodite-Niobe relative to a mean crustal thickness of 50 km. The calculations include the consequences of simple crust models and more complicated models with a weak, ductile lower crust, a strong upper mantle and a weak lower mantle layer.

Marchenkov, K. I.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Improved Creep Testing Approach for Bentonite EBS

In the United States, the nuclear reactor contributes 18.7 percent of the nation’s total electricity generation and produces a significant amount of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and high-level waste. Because SNF is being stored for longer periods than initially envisioned, the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy, Office of Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology is assessing the technical performance of the SNF storage systems after extended durations. The concept of a sustainable geologic repository for SNF disposal relies heavily on the safety provided by multiple barriers, such as repository host rock, overlying rock formation, and human-made engineered barrier systems (EBS). One of the major components of EBS is bentonite-based buffer materials that isolate the nuclear-waste canisters from the host rock and fill the void left in the horizontally drilled boreholes. The resaturated bentonite has a swelling characteristic, which is useful for self-sealing the microcracks in the host rock and supporting the canister’s heavy weight. However, factors such as nonuniformity in the saturation, swelling pressure of bentonite, and the high temperature at the canister-bentonite interface may lead to instability of the waste canister inside the borehole. Therefore, evaluating the long-term deformation of bentonite-based material is necessary. RESPEC Company, LLC recently completed a preliminary study for the U.S. Department of Energy (DE SC0022804) that is attempting to understand the time-dependent deformation in the consolidated sand/bentonite (SB) specimens through triaxial creep experiments and improve the understanding of EBS performance under anticipated repository conditions. The project included developing a standard testing procedure for preparing the consolidated core specimen from a mixture of sand and bentonite in a 50:50 ratio by weight, fabricating a new pressure vessel in-house, modifying existing creep equipment to perform triaxial creep experiments on consolidated SB specimens, and performing six long-term triaxial creep experiments under low-deviatoric stress at two different temperature conditions, which is representative of hypothetical conditions that might be encountered in a geologic repository within a reasonable rate of success in completing creep experiments. The consolidated SB specimen was prepared using the novel specimen preparation procedure and had physical characteristics (e.g., moisture content and bulk density) reasonably comparable with the properties of bentonite-based buffer, which is proposed to be used in the EBS in the Swedish KBS-3H design and the Swiss design of SNF disposal in the horizontal drifts. The newly fabricated pressure vessel could withstand the confining pressure of up to 15 megapascals (MPa) while maintaining the test temperature of up to 90 degrees Celsius (°C) for long-term creep experiments. The preliminary results from the triaxial creep experiments suggested that the consolidated SB specimen may experience time-dependent deformation at a low-deviatoric stress state and room temperature condition. Based on the deformation recorded in the SB specimen from axial and radial linear variable differential transformers (LVDTs) and physical characteristic changes, it is apparent that the time-dependent deformation is a combination of consolidation and creep, which is influenced by the level of deviatoric stresses and temperature. The systematic creep testing of bentonite-based specimens helped develop a standard testing procedure applicable for analyzing the similar characteristics of shale or clay-like materials in different geologic conditions outside repository science, including in civil engineering and infrastructure projects, underground and open pit mining, and deep drilling.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

EGS Stimulation Design with Uncertainty Quantification at the EGS Collab Site

Engineering a robust hydraulic connection between wells is one of the most difficult aspects of enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). Designing and constructing such hydraulic connections requires and understanding of the in situ state of stress and the heterogeneities and discontinuities that naturally exist and may control the stimulation. Even with comprehensive stress and formation characterization programs substantial uncertainty remains in these key parameters. This is especially the case in high-temperature EGS environments where drilling conditions are often difficult and a far fewer logging and testing options are available. This paper presents a new approach for explicitly quantifying the uncertainties in the state of stress using a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo method. This approach produces a probability distribution for the stress tensor, including a general 3D orientation, that reflects the uncertainties in all the observations or indicators used to constrain the stress state. This method is demonstrated on the characterization data for the EGS Collab Experiment 2 site. The output of the analysis is used to guide the design of the planned stimulations. In the case of research projects like EGS Collab, explicitly quantifying the uncertainties in the stress state allow for more rigorous hypothesis testing by allowing conclusions drawn from the experiments to be interpreted in the context of the uncertain knowledge about conditions in the test bed.

Burghardt, Jeffrey A.↗