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National-scale impacts on wind energy production under curtailment scenarios to reduce bat fatalities

Wind energy often plays a major role in meeting renewable energy policy objectives; however, increased deployment can raise concerns regarding the impacts of wind plants on certain wildlife. Particularly, estimates suggest hundreds of thousands of bat fatalities occur annually at wind plants across North America, with potential implications for the viability of several bat species. One approach to reducing bat fatalities is shutting down (or curtailing) turbines when bats are most at risk, such as at night during relatively low wind speed periods throughout summer and early autumn. While curtailment has consistently been shown to reduce bat fatalities, the lost power production reduces revenues for wind plants. This study conducted simulations with a range of curtailment scenarios across the contiguous United States to examine sensitivities of annual energy production (AEP) loss and potential impacts on economic metrics for future wind energy deployment. We found that AEP reduction can vary across the country from less than 1% to more than 10% for different curtailment scenarios. From an estimated 2891 gigawatts (GW) of simulated economically viable wind capacity (measured by a positive net present value), we found the mid curtailment scenario (6.0 m/s wind speed cut-in from July 1 through October 31) reduced the quantity of economic wind capacity by 274 GW or 9.5%. Our results indicate that high levels of curtailment could substantially reduce the future footprint of financially viable wind energy. In this context, future work that illuminates cost-effective strategies to minimize curtailment while reducing bat fatalities would be of value.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Low Cost Glass-Ceramic Matrix Composites for Harsh Environment Heat Exchangers (Final Technical Report)

Nearly all high temperature heat exchangers are currently constructed from metallic alloys that can have good capability but are limited to hot inlet temperatures in the range of 1,200 to 1,400 °F. In general, increasing the hot inlet temperature will improve existing application cycles to operate more efficiently, and it will enable new application cycles to be viable that otherwise would not be. The objective of this project was to mature the technologies associated with the development of a ceramic-class heat exchanger that would significantly increase the operating temperature to 1,600 °F and above. The approach taken was to use Glass-Ceramic Matrix Composite (G-CMC) material and to fabricate coupon-scale tube sheet heat exchangers (HXs) to identify risks, refine details of the process and develop a pathway for this novel approach.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Financial Analysis of the Smallmouth Bass Flows implemented at the Glen Canyon Dam during Water Year 2024

The Glen Canyon Dam (GCD) is a Colorado River Storage Project (CRSP) power resource that is a component of the Salt Lake City Area Integrated Projects (SLCA/IP). The 2016 record of decision (ROD) for the GCD long-term experimental and management plan (LTEMP) final Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) specifies criteria for GCD monthly water releases, daily and hourly operating limits, and experimental releases. This report presents a financial analysis of the Smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu) (SMB) flows implemented at GCD during Water Year (WY) 2024. These bypass flows were introduced by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) as an emergency response to the growing threat posed by invasive SMB in the Colorado River ecosystem downstream of the dam. SMB are a non-native predatory species that pose a significant threat to native fish populations, including the endangered humpback chub (Gila cypha). The thermal regime below GCD, typically cold due to hypolimnetic releases from Lake Powell, has historically served as a thermal barrier limiting SMB establishment. However, persistently low reservoir levels in recent years have reduced stratification in Lake Powell, allowing warmer water to be released downstream. This has enabled SMB to spawn successfully below the dam, prompting urgent ecological concerns. To mitigate the risk of SMB proliferation, the USBR implemented a series of bypass flows in WY 2024. Drawn from a lower elevation than the penstocks, the bypass structures released cooler water downstream. These short-duration bypass flows aimed to keep temperatures cool enough to prevent SMB from spawning, thereby reducing the ecological threat posed by this invasive species. Although motivated by ecological objectives, these bypass flows came with financial tradeoffs. Releasing water through the bypass structures instead of the turbines at GCD reduced hydropower generation, resulting in a significantly lower financial position for Western Area Power Administration (WAPA), which is responsible for marketing the electricity produced by the GCD Powerplant. This report analyzes the financial impact of the SMB flows implemented from July to November 2024. These experimental releases led to an estimated financial cost of approximately $18.9 million, primarily driven by the substantial volume of water diverted through the bypass structures. This study applies an integrated set of tools to estimate WAPA financial impacts by simulating GCD under two types of cases; namely, (1) a “With Experiment” case that mimics the water operations that actually occurred, including the SMB bypass flows, and (2) a “Without Experiment” case that simulates operations under the assumption that the SMB flows did not occur. Both cases comply with LTEMP hourly and daily operating criteria, and the monthly water release volumes are assumed to be identical under both cases. The Colorado River Storage Project Python-based model (CRiSPPy) model was the main modeling tool used to simulate the dispatch of the GCD hydropower plant and associated water releases from Lake Powell. In the modeling process, the research team used extensive data sets and historical information on SLCA/IP power plant characteristics, hydrologic conditions, and WAPA’s power purchases and sales prices.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

An Evolutionary Algorithm to Personalize Stool-Based Colorectal Cancer Screening

Fecal immunochemical testing (FIT) is an established method for colorectal cancer (CRC) screening. Measured FIT-concentrations are associated with both present and future risk of CRC, and may be used for personalized screening. However, evaluation of personalized screening is computationally challenging. In this study, a broadly applicable algorithm is presented to efficiently optimize personalized screening policies that prescribe screening intervals and FIT-cutoffs, based on age and FIT-history. We present a mathematical framework for personalized screening policies and a bi-objective evolutionary algorithm that identifies policies with minimal costs and maximal health benefits. The algorithm is combined with an established microsimulation model (MISCAN-Colon), to accurately estimate the costs and benefits of generated policies, without restrictive Markov assumptions. The performance of the algorithm is demonstrated in three experiments. In Experiment 1, a relatively small benchmark problem, the optimal policies were known. The algorithm approached the maximum feasible benefits with a relative difference of 0.007%. Experiment 2 optimized both intervals and cutoffs, Experiment 3 optimized cutoffs only. Optimal policies in both experiments are unknown. Compared to policies recently evaluated for the USPSTF, personalized screening increased health benefits up to 14 and 4.3%, for Experiments 2 and 3, respectively, without adding costs. Generated policies have several features concordant with current screening recommendations. The method presented in this paper is flexible and capable of optimizing personalized screening policies evaluated with computationally-intensive but established simulation models. It can be used to inform screening policies for CRC or other diseases. For CRC, more debate is needed on what features a policy needs to exhibit to make it suitable for implementation in practice.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Intern Deliverable Poster 2025

An Incident Response Plan (IRP) is a document that is created and maintained by an organization that provides guidance in the event of a cyber incident. The primary objectives of an IRP are to aid in the detection, response, and recovery from incidents, as well as to enhance preparation and preventative measures. An IRP should outline specific procedures at each stage of an incident, with the goal of minimizing asset damage, data leakage, and operational impact. By investing in a well-defined IRP, organizations can better manage and mitigate risks associated with cyber threats, ensuring business continuity and resilience. This poster summarizes incident response guidelines for wind energy, which faces unique cybersecurity and physical challenges.

17 - WIND ENERGY↗

Low Count and Background Radionuclides Analysis - 20488

The US Department of Energy (DOE) is often faced with the need to evaluate radionuclides at low concentrations. When site sample data are likely to be close to threshold activity concentrations of interest, then the means by which the radiochemical analysis is performed and reported is critical. This situation can occur when differentiating from zero (presence/absence) for radionuclides that do not occur naturally, close comparison with environmental background for naturally occurring radionuclides, close comparison with a risk- or dose-based threshold concentrations of interest, or even comparisons across studies. There are several analytical issues that are of concern, but the two that appear to cause incorrect decisions to be made most often involve establishing detection limits and subtracting ambient background conditions in the laboratory. These issues are not critical when radionuclide activity concentrations are large relative to thresholds of concern, but they seem to be poorly understood when it matters. When the comparisons are important and are likely to be close to a threshold of interest, then the general contract with the analytical laboratories needs to be changed so that the right or appropriate data are obtained. The concern is that important decisions are made incorrectly more often as greater scrutiny is placed on DoE's radionuclide cleanup or monitoring decisions by the public and other stakeholders. Examples are presented of problems that have been observed for different projects, both within and outside the realm of DOE and NRC remediation and radioactive waste disposal problems, and solutions are offered that should lead to better data from which important decisions need to be made. The first example is from Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) and involves radionuclide concentrations in soil and rock beneath LANL's Material Disposal Area (MDA) G. An initial review of the data led to a conclusion that americium and plutonium are a long way present beneath MDA G. A more thorough review of the data that accounted properly for ambient background and the detection limits that had been established led to the opposite conclusion. Another example is from the Nevada National Security Site where tritium results from one of the wells were unexpectedly high. Proper understanding and analysis of ambient background led to the conclusion that the increased concentrations were not so obvious, and that a different contract with the analytical laboratory was needed to provide more appropriate data to support a better determination. Other examples are used from regulatory review of projects in Nevada, where background levels and secular equilibrium for naturally occurring radionuclides are not established correctly because of analytical issues. The same basic issues have also been found to create difficulties analyzing historical data from the West Valley Demonstration Project. There is evidence in the data that the apparent lack of secular equilibrium where it is expected to exist is related to ambient background subtraction or other analytical issues. A final example is presented for analysis of Tc-99 in samples of depleted uranium. In this case, two different studies that were performed only three months apart provide quite different results. The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) established the data quality objectives (DQO) process in the mid-1980's to establish decision performance criteria for data collection. EPA guidance (EPA G-4, for example) clearly distinguishes between DQOs and measurement performance objectives (MQOs) that should be addressed for laboratory analysis of samples. The language of DQOs and MQOs has become confused over time it seems, and the subsequent effects seem to include a lack of attention to decision performance and a routine approach to measurement quality. In order to better address radionuclide sample analysis when the concentrations are close to thresholds of concern, which might be zero for some radionuclides, background for others, and risk-based thresholds for yet others, it is important that routine laboratory analysis methods are adjusted, and that the project team and the laboratory work closely together to ensure that the data meets the MQO requirements of laboratory analysis and reporting of results, and that the MQOs effectively support project-specific DQOs. This basic approach will be applied in Los Alamos in the coming year to the collection of moisture data from underneath MDA T that will be analyzed for americium and neptunium isotopes. Proper understanding of the radiochemistry methods and reporting, and of appropriate statistical methods is critical to the success of such projects, ensuring that the right decisions are made. (authors)

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

HYSPLIT/MACCS Atmospheric Dispersion Model Technical Documentation and Benchmark Analysis

The nuclear accident consequence analysis code MACCS has traditionally modeled dispersion during downwind transport using a Gaussian plume segment model. MACCS is designed to estimate consequence measures such as air concentrations and ground depositions, radiological doses, and health and economic impacts on a statistical basis over the course of a year to produce annualaveraged output measures. The objective of this work is to supplement the Gaussian atmospheric transport and diffusion (ATD) model currently in MACCS with a new option using the HYSPLIT model. HYSPLIT/MACCS coupling has been implemented, with HYSPLIT as an alternative ATD option. The subsequent calculations in MACCS use the HYSPLIT-generated air concentration, and ground deposition values to calculate the same range of output quantities (dose, health effects, risks, etc.) that can be generated when using the MACCS Gaussian ATD model. Based on the results from the verification test cases, the implementation of the HYSPLIT/MACCS coupling is confirmed. This report contains technical details of the HYSPLIT/MACCS coupling and presents a benchmark analysis using the HYSPLIT/MACCS coupling system. The benchmark analysis, which involves running specific scenarios and sensitivity studies designed to examine how the results generated by the traditional MACCS Gaussian plume segment model compare to the new, higher fidelity HYSPLIT/MACCS modeling option, demonstrates the modeling results that can be obtained by using this new option. The comparisons provided herein can also help decision-makers evaluate the potential benefit of using results based on higher fidelity modeling with the additional computational burden needed to perform the calculations. Three sensitivity studies to investigate the potential impact of alternative modeling options, regarding 1) input meteorological data set, 2) method to estimate stability class, and 3) plume dispersion model for larger distances, on consequence results were also performed. The results of these analyses are provided and discussed in this report.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Early Intervention Program Los Alamos National Laboratory [Slides]

Objectives of the Program: Identify employees with symptoms/discomfort and provide early intervention/rapid response before discomfort becomes an injury; Demonstrate to employees that the Laboratory cares about them using a personalized approach; Improve worker productivity and workplace satisfaction; Spread the word so that employees report discomfort early and rapid intervention can be executed to prevent injuries; facilitate procurement of necessary equipment as quickly as possible given risk of progression to injury.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Engineering Out Industry 4.0 Cyber Risk Presentation for EnCyCriS

The increasing complexity and business requirements of operational technology (OT) devices is beginning to break the normal segmentation between information technology (IT) and OT networks. The introduction of industry 4.0 devices such as industrial internet of things (IIoT) and other intelligent industrial devices (IID), virtualized OT systems, OT cloud integration, and artificial intelligence (AI)-driven industrial control systems (ICS) has challenged traditional IT/OT cybersecurity strategies. Industry 4.0 devices are analyzed through the lens of well-regarded models such as the PERA model and confidentiality, integrity, and availability (CIA) security objectives, showing the division between what is needed and traditional cybersecurity countermeasures. In this paper, the practice of Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE) is proposed to bridge the gap between IT/OT security, enhance the practice of cybersecurity in this modern age, and reduce the impacts of consequential events in OT.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

SDN-Based Dynamic Cybersecurity Framework of IEC-61850 Communications in Smart Grid

In recent years, critical infrastructure and power grids have experienced a series of cyber-attacks, leading to temporary, widespread blackouts of considerable magnitude. Since most substations are unmanned and have limited physical security protection, cyber breaches into power grid substations present a risk. Nowadays, the susceptibility of SDN architecture to cyber-attacks has exhibited a notable increase in recent years, as indicated by research findings. This suggests a growing concern regarding the potential for cybersecurity breaches within the SDN framework. In this paper, we propose a hybrid intrusion detection system (IDS)-integrated SDN architecture for detecting and preventing the injection of malicious IEC 61850-based generic object-oriented system event (GOOSE) messages in a digital substation. Additionally, this program locates the fault’s location and, as a form of mitigation, disables a certain port. Furthermore, implementation examples are demonstrated and verified using a hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) testbed that mimics the functioning of a digital substation.

Liu, Chen-Ching [Virginia Tech] (ORCID:00000002894↗

Using Machine Learning to Identify Optimum Prospects for Offshore Geologic CO 2 Storage and Enhanced Oil Recovery in the Gulf of Mexico

The SECARB Offshore Partnership is a government-industry partnership focused on assembling the knowledge base required for secure, long-term, large-scale CO 2 subsea storage in saline formations and mature oil reservoirs. The SECARB Offshore Partnership is evaluating potential storage opportunities in the Central and Eastern planning areas of the outer continental shelf (OCS) of the Gulf of Mexico. The evaluation focuses on active and depleted oil and gas fields and potentially associated CO 2 -enhanced oil recovery (CO 2 -EOR), as well as, deep saline storage resources. As part of Subtask 3.0 (Offshore Storage Resources Characterization) and Subtask 4.0 (Risk Assessment, Simulation, and Modeling), Oklahoma State University (OSU) is developing a machine learning system that employs the SAS Institute’s Viya platform with visual data mining and machine learning to identify and characterize optimum prospects for enhanced oil recovery and stacked storage in saline reservoirs. This report summarizes this effort to date and discusses the many variables that can be used to characterize these storage objectives, as well as, the design vision of the Viya machine learning system.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Direct Air Capture Recovery of Energy for CCUS Partnership (DAC RECO 2 UP) Final Technical Report

The “Direct Air Capture Recovery of Energy for CCUS Partnership (DAC RECO 2 UP)” project employs a team approach and supports the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management’s (DOE-FECM) goal to decrease the cost of capture through the testing of existing direct air capture (DAC) materials in integrated field units that produce a concentrated carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) stream of at least 95% purity. Solid-amine CO 2 adsorption-desorption contactor technology, proven in the laboratory, is undergoing high-fidelity design/validation. Recoverable energy is readily available from a large number of commercial locations where DAC can be deployed; therefore, advancing the fidelity of energy recovery to directly reduce the cost of DAC is a key project objective. In addition, many commercial facilities have low-concentration CO 2 vents that are uneconomical to treat alone but could provide more efficient mass and thermal transport to DAC systems with integrated energy recovery and flexible CO 2 treatment capabilities. Technology scale-up leverages past research and occurs in a commercially relevant environment at the National Carbon Capture Center. Prescreening techno-economic analysis, risk assessments, and life cycle analysis are being performed by experienced team members. Results of the project will address critical technical barriers that, when solved, will improve the capital and operating costs of DAC while validating commercial relevance of cost and product quality/need.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Towards Anomaly Detection at the CMS High-Level Trigger System

Traditional trigger strategies in CMS typically rely on model-dependent selections or rigid kinematic cuts, risking the omission of unexpected exotic signatures. To address this, we propose a novel anomaly detection (AD) algorithm for the High-Level Trigger (HLT), designed to serve as a complementary second layer of filtering to the Level-1 AXOL1TL AD algorithm. We employ a transformer-based foundation model trained on a diverse ensemble of Standard Model processes. By combining a joint contrastive and classification objective, and using particle kinematics as inputs, the model learns to map events to a physics-informed latent space where anomalous events are isolated from dominant backgrounds. Preliminary results show that this strategy enhances the signal-to-background ratio across a range of rare SM and BSM scenarios. Furthermore, this work constitutes foundational R&D for the potential implementation of an analogous AD algorithm in the Level-1 trigger system for Phase-2.

Cruz, Roy [U. Wisconsin, Madison (main)] (ORCID:00↗

Energy burden aware and thermal resilience informed thermal energy storage system planning for disadvantaged communities

Disadvantaged communities often face a disproportionate energy burden because they need to allocate a higher percentage of their income to energy costs. More importantly, climate change-induced extreme weather events, such as heat waves and severe cold snaps, exacerbate these communities’ energy burdens. As a result, low- and medium-income communities are more likely to experience energy supply disruptions, increased health risks, and elevated energy bills because of inadequate thermal insulation and airtightness in their houses. Thermal energy storage (TES) systems, such as large-scale (community-level) geothermal energy storage and small-scale (building-level) phase change material (PCM)–based storage, have a great potential to improve building energy efficiency and to enhance thermal comfort, load shifting, and integration with renewable energy. The objective of this study is to optimally allocate building level PCM-based TES systems at the community level by considering energy equity and extreme weather effects. To this end, we developed an energy burden and thermal resilience–informed TES system planning framework, which includes three modules: (1) a community-level energy burden and thermal resilience assessment module, (2) building-level a TES system integration and assessment module, and (3) a community-level optimal planning module. Case studies were conducted on four disadvantaged communities in Montgomery and Shelby Counties in Tennessee with energy burdens >10% and with high percentages of people of color. The results indicate that this comprehensive planning framework can assist disadvantaged communities in reducing their energy burden and in bolstering their resilience against the adverse effects of climate change.

Shen, Zhenglai↗

Stock-specific spatial overlap among seabird predators and Columbia River juvenile Chinook Salmon suggests a mechanism for predation during early marine residence

Abstract Objective Because predation is thought to be the primary source of natural mortality for juvenile salmon first entering the ocean, we sought to identify regions where, on average, stock-specific spatial overlap between the distribution of threatened and endangered juvenile Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha and abundant fish-eating seabirds (common murres Uria aalge and sooty shearwaters Ardenna grisea) suggests the greatest potential for ocean predation risk to juvenile Chinook Salmon. Methods The relative abundance and spatial distribution of seabird predators and juvenile Chinook Salmon were quantified as part of long-term ecosystem surveys during May 2003–2012 and June 2003–2022. Genetic stock identification methods were used to assign individual fish to their respective stock groups. Stock-specific species distribution models then generated maps and indices of average annual spatial overlap between predators and prey within the survey area. Result There is unequivocal evidence for spatial overlap between common murres, sooty shearwaters, and five genetic groups of interior and lower Columbia River juvenile Chinook Salmon. We found strongly positive (≥0.70) spatial correlations between predator and prey densities in both May and June, although spatial overlap was, in general, greater during May. The region of highest spatial overlap occurred on the inner continental shelf between the Columbia River mouth (46.2°N) and Grays Harbor (47.0°N), a region at the beginning of the juvenile salmon migratory pathway that is strongly affected by freshwater outflow from the river. Conclusion Our findings support the idea that ocean avian predation during early marine residence has the potential to affect marine survival of juvenile Chinook Salmon and should be further investigated to better inform and implement ecological models and possible recovery actions for Chinook Salmon populations of the Columbia River basin.

Zamon, Jeannette E.↗

Associations between SARS-CoV-2 Infection or COVID-19 Vaccination and Human Milk Composition: A Multi-Omics Approach

Background: The risk of contracting severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) via human milk-feeding is virtually nonexistent. Adverse effects of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination for lactating individuals are not different from the general population, and no evidence has been found that their infants exhibit adverse effects. Yet, there remains substantial hesitation among this population globally regarding the safety of these vaccines. Objectives: Herein, we aimed to determine if compositional changes in milk occur following SARS-CoV-2 infection or COVID-19 vaccination, including any evidence of vaccine components. Methods: An extensive multiomics approach was taken using a subset of milk samples obtained as part of our broad studies examining the effects on milk of SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 vaccination. Results: We found that compared with unvaccinated individuals, SARS-CoV-2 infection was associated with significant compositional differences in 67 proteins, 385 lipids, and 13 metabolites. In contrast, COVID-19 vaccination was not associated with any changes in lipids or metabolites, although it was associated with changes in 13 or fewer proteins. Compositional changes in milk differed by vaccine. Changes following vaccination were greatest after 1–6 h for the mRNA-based Moderna vaccine (8 changed proteins), 3 d for the mRNA-based Pfizer (4 changed proteins), and adenovirus-based Johnson and Johnson (13 changed proteins) vaccines. Proteins that changed after both natural infection and Johnson and Johnson vaccine were associated mainly with systemic inflammatory responses. In addition, no vaccine components were detected in any milk sample. Conclusions: Together, our data provide evidence of only minimal changes in milk composition because of COVID-19 vaccination, with much greater changes after natural SARS-CoV-2 infection.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Multiple monoenergetic gamma radiography (MMGR) with a compact superconducting cyclotron

Smuggling of special nuclear materials and nuclear devices through borders and ports of entry constitutes a major risk to global security. Technologies are needed to reliably screen the flow of commerce for the presence of high-Z materials such as uranium and plutonium. Here, we present an experimental proof-of-concept of a technique that uses inelastic (p,p') nuclear reactions to generate monoenergetic photons, which provide means to measure the areal density and the effective-Z (Z eff ) of an object with an accuracy surpassing that achieved by current methods. We use an ION-12 SC superconducting 12 MeV proton cyclotron to produce 4.4, 6.1, 6.9, and 7.1 MeV photons from a variety of nuclear reactions. Using these photons in a transmission mode, we show that we are able to accurately reconstruct the areal densities and Zeff of a test object. This methodology could enable mobile applications to screen commercial cargoes with high material specificity, providing a means of distinguishing common cargo materials from high-Z materials that include uranium and plutonium.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗