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Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures (CARES). Users and programmers manual

This manual describes how to use the Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures (CARES) computer program. The primary function of the code is to calculate the fast fracture reliability or failure probability of macroscopically isotropic ceramic components. These components may be subjected to complex thermomechanical loadings, such as those found in heat engine applications. The program uses results from MSC/NASTRAN or ANSYS finite element analysis programs to evaluate component reliability due to inherent surface and/or volume type flaws. CARES utilizes the Batdorf model and the two-parameter Weibull cumulative distribution function to describe the effect of multiaxial stress states on material strength. The principle of independent action (PIA) and the Weibull normal stress averaging models are also included. Weibull material strength parameters, the Batdorf crack density coefficient, and other related statistical quantities are estimated from four-point bend bar or unifrom uniaxial tensile specimen fracture strength data. Parameter estimation can be performed for single or multiple failure modes by using the least-square analysis or the maximum likelihood method. Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Anderson-Darling goodness-of-fit tests, ninety percent confidence intervals on the Weibull parameters, and Kanofsky-Srinivasan ninety percent confidence band values are also provided. The probabilistic fast-fracture theories used in CARES, along with the input and output for CARES, are described. Example problems to demonstrate various feature of the program are also included. This manual describes the MSC/NASTRAN version of the CARES program.

Nemeth, Noel N.↗

Design of ceramic components with the NASA/CARES computer program

The ceramics analysis and reliability evaluation of structures (CARES) computer program is described. The primary function of the code is to calculate the fast-fracture reliability or failure probability of macro-scopically isotropic ceramic components. These components may be subjected to complex thermomechanical loadings, such as those found in heat engine applications. CARES uses results from MSC/NASTRAN or ANSYS finite-element analysis programs to evaluate how inherent surface and/or volume type flaws component reliability. CARES utilizes the Batdorf model and the two-parameter Weibull cumulative distribution function to describe the effects of multiaxial stress states on material strength. The principle of independent action (PIA) and the Weibull normal stress averaging models are also included. Weibull material strength parameters, the Batdorf crack density coefficient, and other related statistical quantities are estimated from four-point bend bar or uniform uniaxial tensile specimen fracture strength data. Parameter estimation can be performed for a single or multiple failure modes by using a least-squares analysis or a maximum likelihood method. Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Anderson-Darling goodness-to-fit-tests, 90 percent confidence intervals on the Weibull parameters, and Kanofsky-Srinivasan 90 percent confidence band values are also provided. Examples are provided to illustrate the various features of CARES.

Nemeth, Noel N.↗

Reliability of stiffened structural panels: Two examples

The reliability of two graphite-epoxy stiffened panels that contain uncertainties is examined. For one panel, the effect of an overall bow-type initial imperfection is studied. The size of the bow is assumed to be a random variable. The failure mode is buckling. The benefits of quality control are explored by using truncated distributions. For the other panel, the effect of uncertainties in a strain-based failure criterion is studied. The allowable strains are assumed to be random variables. A geometrically nonlinear analysis is used to calculate a detailed strain distribution near an elliptical access hole in a wing panel that was tested to failure. Calculated strains are used to predict failure. Results are compared with the experimental failure load of the panel.

Stroud, W. Jefferson↗

Synthesis of stiffened conical shells.

The development of a method to effect the automated minimum weight design of ring and stringer stiffened shells is presented. Membrane theory is used for the shell prebuckling analysis. The buckling analysis is based upon an arbitrary shell of revolution computer program. The structural analysis includes both buckling and yielding modes of failure. The synthesis involves the coupling of an exterior penalty function with a method for the unconstrained minimization of a function comprised of a sum of squares. Results of the application of the method to the design of the Viking Aeroshell cone are presented. The least weight Viking Aeroshell appears to be an all magnesium shell with ring stiffeners of hollow circular cross section. Because the method incorporates a general shell of revolution buckling analysis, it can be readily modified and applied to the design of any axisymmetrically loaded uniformly stiffened shell of revolution for which a membrane prebuckling solution exists.

Thornton, W. A.↗

Diagnostics of wear in aeronautical systems

The use of appropriate diagnostic tools for aircraft oil wetted components is reviewed, noting that it can reduce direct operating costs through reduced unscheduled maintenance, particularly in helicopter engine and transmission systems where bearing failures are a significant cost factor. Engine and transmission wear modes are described, and diagnostic methods for oil and wet particle analysis, the spectrometric oil analysis program, chip detectors, ferrography, in-line oil monitor and radioactive isotope tagging are discussed, noting that they are effective over a limited range of particle sizes but compliment each other if used in parallel. Fine filtration can potentially increase time between overhauls, but reduces the effectiveness of conventional oil monitoring techniques so that alternative diagnostic techniques must be used. It is concluded that the development of a diagnostic system should be parallel and integral with the development of a mechanical system.

Wedeven, L. D.↗

Wiring Damage Analyses for STS OV-103

This study investigated the Shuttle Program s belief that Space Transportation System (STS) wiring damage occurrences are random, that is, a constant occurrence rate. Using Problem Reporting and Corrective Action (PRACA)-derived data for STS Space Shuttle OV-103, wiring damage was observed to increase over the vehicle s life. Causal factors could include wiring physical deterioration, maintenance and inspection induced damage, and inspection process changes resulting in more damage events being reported. Induced damage effects cannot be resolved with existent data. Growth analysis (using Crow-AMSAA, or CA) resolved maintenance/inspection effects (e.g., heightened awareness) on all wire damages and indicated an overall increase since Challenger Return-to-Flight (RTF). An increasing failure or occurrence rate per flight cycle was seen for each wire damage mode; these (individual) rates were not affected by inspection process effects, within statistical error.

Thomas, Walter, III↗

Low-thrust mission risk analysis, with application to a 1980 rendezvous with the comet Encke

A computerized failure process simulation procedure is used to evaluate the risk in a solar electric space mission. The procedure uses currently available thrust-subsystem reliability data and performs approximate simulations of the thrust sybsystem burn operation, the system failure processes, and the retargeting operations. The method is applied to assess the risks in carrying out a 1980 rendezvous mission to the comet Encke. Analysis of the results and evaluation of the effects of various risk factors on the mission show that system component failure rates are the limiting factors in attaining a high mission relability. It is also shown that a well-designed trajectory and system operation mode can be used effectively to partially compensate for unreliable thruster performance.

Yen, C. L.↗

System safety in Stirling engine development

The DOE/NASA Stirling Engine Project Office has required that contractors make safety considerations an integral part of all phases of the Stirling engine development program. As an integral part of each engine design subtask, analyses are evolved to determine possible modes of failure. The accepted system safety analysis techniques (Fault Tree, FMEA, Hazards Analysis, etc.) are applied in various degrees of extent at the system, subsystem and component levels. The primary objectives are to identify critical failure areas, to enable removal of susceptibility to such failures or their effects from the system and to minimize risk.

Bankaitis, H.↗

On the analysis and design of the end notched flexure (ENF) specimen for Mode II testing

The end notched flexure (ENF) specimen is examined as a candidate for measuring interlaminar fracture toughness in skew symmetric loading. A simple design study for sizing the ENF specimen to minimize geometric nonlinear response and to avoid nonlinear material behavior or flexural failure is presented. Results indicate that interlaminar shear effects may be significant for tough resin systems requiring large thickness-to-length geometries. The influences of interlaminar shear deformation and friction between the crack surfaces on the strain energy release rate are examined.

Carlsson, L. A.↗

Analysis and Optimization of Test Plans for Advanced Exploration Systems Reliability and Supportability

Future crewed exploration missions beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO) will operate farther from Earth and be logistically isolated for longer than any previous human spaceflight mission. Under these conditions, supportability and reliability willbestronger drivers of mission mass and risk than they have been in the past. Items with high failure rates, or uncertain failure rates, can result in high spares mass requirements and/or high risk on deep space missions. Testing is a critical element of system development which provides the opportunity to identify and resolve design issues, defects, or other failure modes before they cause problems during a mission. Reliability growth programs can reduce failure rates by identifying and remove failure modes via design changes, and long-duration life testing can provide valuable data to reduce failure rate estimate uncertainty and verify (to some level of confidence) that components are as reliable as expected. Testing activities take time and resources, however, and must be incorporated into program plans in order to be fully effective. This paper presents an integrated reliability test plan analysis and optimization methodology, which has been used to inform Advanced Exploration Systems (AES) Life Support Systems (LSS) ground test planning for future missions. The methodology determines the optimal number of test units to purchase and allocation of test time –split between reliability growth and uncertainty reduction testing –across a given set of items in order to minimize spares mass for a given mission under constraints on total test cost and schedule. Model outputs also include expected spares mass after testing and the expected number of modifications or refurbishments during testing, both of which can inform program planning. Discussion of the model, conclusions, and future work are also presented.

Testing↗

Analysis and Optimization of Test Plans for Advanced Exploration Systems Reliability and Supportability

Future crewed exploration missions beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO) will operate farther from Earth and be logistically isolated for longer than any previous human spaceflight mission. Under these conditions, supportability and reliability willbestronger drivers of mission mass and risk than they have been in the past. Items with high failure rates, or uncertain failure rates, can result in high spares mass requirements and/or high risk on deep space missions. Testing is a critical element of system development which provides the opportunity to identify and resolve design issues, defects, or other failure modes before they cause problems during a mission. Reliability growth programs can reduce failure rates by identifying and remove failure modes via design changes, and long-duration life testing can provide valuable data to reduce failure rate estimate uncertainty and verify (to some level of confidence) that components are as reliable as expected. Testing activities take time and resources, however, and must be incorporated into program plans in order to be fully effective. This paper presents an integrated reliability test plan analysis and optimization methodology, which has been used to inform Advanced Exploration Systems (AES) Life Support Systems (LSS) ground test planning for future missions. The methodology determines the optimal number of test units to purchase and allocation of test time –split between reliability growth and uncertainty reduction testing –across a given set of items in order to minimize spares mass for a given mission under constraints on total test cost and schedule. Model outputs also include expected spares mass after testing and the expected number of modifications or refurbishments during testing, both of which can inform program planning. Discussion of the model, conclusions, and future work are also presented.

Testing↗

Degradation in photovoltaic encapsulation strength of attachment: Results of the first PVQAT TG5 artificial weathering study

Delamination of the encapsulant in photovoltaic (PV) module technology results in immediate optical loss and may enable subsequent corrosion or mechanical damage. The effects of artificial weathering were not previously known; therefore, an empirical study was performed to survey the factors most affecting adhesion, including the ultraviolet (UV) source (ie, Xe or fluorescent lamp[s]), the optical filters for the lamp, the chamber temperature, and the relative humidity. Natural weathering was also performed at locations, including the following: Golden, Colorado; Miami, Florida; Phoenix, Arizona; QiongHai, China; Riyadh, Saudi Arabia; and Turpan, China. Specimens were constructed using a laminated glass/poly (ethylene-co-vinyl acetate)/glass geometry. The compressive shear test (CST) was used to quantify the mechanical strength of attachment, taken as a proxy for adhesion. The fractography of select specimens (including cross-sectional optical microscopy) was used to verify the failure mode (delamination or decohesion). Additional analysis of the local solar spectrum as well as the specimen temperature was performed to interpret the results of natural weathering. The goals of this study include to identify the most significant stressors, clarify where strong coupling may occur between stressors, and validate accelerated test results relative to natural weathering. The importance of specimen conditioning (for moisture) and hygrometric degradation as well as the effects of UV degradation are identified in this paper.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Low-thrust mission risk analysis.

A computerized multi-stage failure process simulation procedure is used to evaluate the risk in a solar electric space mission. The procedure uses currently available thrust-subsystem reliability data and performs approximate simulations of the thrust subsystem burn operation, the system failure processes, and the retargetting operations. The application of the method is used to assess the risks in carrying out a 1980 rendezvous mission to Comet Encke. Analysis of the results and evaluation of the effects of various risk factors on the mission show that system component failure rates is the limiting factor in attaining a high mission reliability. But it is also shown that a well-designed trajectory and system operation mode can be used effectively to partially compensate for unreliable thruster performance.

Yen, C. L.↗

Facilitating Data Collection of Maintenance Events to Populate the Hydrogen Component Reliability Database (HyCReD)

The Hydrogen Component Reliability Database (HyCReD) is a collaborative project between the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, the University of Maryland, and hydrogen stakeholders to improve safety and reliability for hydrogen facilities by implementing component reliability data taxonomies that support hydrogen infrastructure failure rate analysis. The project aims to quantify failure rates of hydrogen components through high-quality data collection and analysis on root causes and maintenance needed. HyCReD provides a common database for cataloging hydrogen component failures which exists for reliability research in many other mature industries [2]. The database fills a gap for the hydrogen community by providing a scientifically rigorous approach to quantitative risk assessment (QRA), prognostic health management (PHM), and reliability-centered maintenance (RCM) analysis. High level results will be aggregated and anonymized to protect company sensitive information; detailed results will be used to help address issues of hydrogen components. These advanced analytics will support accelerated deployment of hydrogen infrastructure by enabling better: design and safety of projects (safety codes and standards development), infrastructure reliability and cost (component failure rates, maintenance protocols), and component R&D needs (robust supply chain). A key to a successful HyCReD implementation is facilitating the ease of reporting and data quality in the database that can be used for analysis. Maintenance data was a previously identified gap in initial efforts to populate and validate the database taxonomies [3]. Collection of maintenance data will be instrumental in identifying failure modes and rates, identifying incipient component failures or reduced performance, cataloging best practices for maintenance routines and methods for prognostic health management, and quantifying the risk and effect of different failure modes. Several key priorities are identified for streamlined data collection to achieve quality and detailed failure data: Applicability, Ease of Use, Accessibility, and Information Security. The HyCReD team has now begun deployment of the database to several companies and groups that have signed non-disclosure agreements to facilitate the data collection of failures in industry hydrogen refueling station infrastructure. This paper will provide an update into the process of HyCReD deployment including the development of a coding guide for facility personnel to reference and ensure data quality and consistency from one station to another as well as implementation of contextually dependent data fields of system taxonomy and formatted entries to provide ease of use. The goal is to communicate the lessons learned from the roll-out to technicians and engineers in the field, and the addition of need for high level of security to protect all stakeholders.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Advanced Concept Studies for Supersonic Commercial Transports Entering Service in the 2018-2020 Period Phase 2

Lockheed Martin Aeronautics Company (LM), working in conjunction with General Electric Global Research (GE GR) and Stanford University, executed a 19 month program responsive to the NASA sponsored "N+2 Supersonic Validation: Advanced Concept Studies for Supersonic Commercial Transports Entering Service in the 2018-2020 Period" contract. The key technical objective of this effort was to validate integrated airframe and propulsion technologies and design methodologies necessary to realize a supersonic vehicle capable of meeting the N+2 environmental and performance goals. The N+2 program is aligned with NASA's Supersonic Project and is focused on providing system level solutions capable of overcoming the efficiency, environmental, and performance barriers to practical supersonic flight. The N+2 environmental and performance goals are outlined in the technical paper, AIAA-2014-2138 (Ref. 1) along with the validated N+2 Phase 2 results. Our Phase 2 efforts built upon our Phase 1 studies (Ref. 2) and successfully demonstrated the ability to design and test realistic configurations capable of shaped sonic booms over the width of the sonic boom carpet. Developing a shaped boom configuration capable of meeting the N+2 shaped boom targets is a key goal for the N+2 program. During the LM Phase 1 effort, LM successfully designed and tested a shaped boom trijet configuration (1021) capable of achieving 85 PLdB under track (forward and aft shock) and up to 28 deg off-track at Mach 1.6. In Phase 2 we developed a refined configuration (1044-2) that extended the under 85 PLdB sonic boom level over the entire carpet of 52 deg off-track at a cruise Mach number of 1.7. Further, the loudness level of the configuration throughout operational conditions calculates to an average of 79 PLdB. These calculations rely on propagation employing Burger's (sBOOM) rounding methodology, and there are indications that the configuration average loudness would actually be 75 PLdB. We also added significant fidelity to the design of the configuration in this phase by performing a low speed wind tunnel test at our LTWT facility in Palmdale, by more complete modelling of propulsion effects in our sonic boom analysis, and by refining our configuration packaging and performance assessments. Working with General Electric, LM performed an assessment of the impact of inlet and nozzle effects on the sonic boom signature of the LM N+2 configurations. Our results indicate that inlet/exhaust streamtube boundary conditions are adequate for conceptual design studies, but realistic propulsion modeling at similar stream-tube conditions does have a small but measurable impact on the sonic boom signature. Previous supersonic transport studies have identified aeroelastic effects as one of the major challenges associated with the long, slender vehicles particularly common with shaped boom aircraft (Ref. 3). Under the Phase 2 effort, we have developed a detailed structural analysis model to evaluate the impact of flexibility and structural considerations on the feasibility of future quiet supersonic transports. We looked in particular at dynamic structural modes and flutter as a failure that must be avoided. We found that for our N+2 design in particular, adequate flutter margin existed. Our flutter margin is large enough to cover uncertainties like large increases in engine weight and the margin is relatively easy to increase with additional stiffening mass. The lack of major aeroelastic problems probably derives somewhat from an early design bias. While shaped boom aircraft require long length, they are not required to be thin. We intentionally developed our structural depths to avoid major flexibility problems. So at the end of Phase 2, we have validated that aeroelastic problems are not necessarily endemic to shaped boom designs. Experimental validation of sonic boom design and analysis techniques was the primary objective of the N+2 Supersonic Validations contract; and in this Phase, LM participated in four high speed wind tunnel tests. The first so-called Parametric Test in the Ames 9x7 tunnel did an exhaustive look at variation effects of the parameters: humidity, total pressure, sample time, spatial averaging distance and number of measurement locations, and more. From the results we learned to obtain data faster and more accurately, and made test condition tolerances easy to meet (eliminating earlier 60 percent wasted time when condition tolerances could not be held). The next two tests used different tunnels. The Ames 11 ft tunnel was used to test lower Mach numbers of 1.2 and 1.4. There were several difficulties using this tunnel for the first time for sonic boom including having to shift the measurement Mach numbers to 1.15 and 1.3 to avoid flow problems. It is believed that the 11 ft could be used successfully to measure sonic boom but there are likely to be a number of test condition restrictions. The Glenn 8x6 ft tunnel was used next and the tunnel has a number of desirable features for sonic boom measurement. While the Ames 9x7 can only test Mach 1.55 to 2.55 and the 11 ft can only test Mach 1.3 and lower, the Glenn 8x6 can test continuously from Mach 0.3 to 2.0. Unfortunately test measurement accuracy was compromised by a reference pressure drift. Post-test analysis revealed that the drift occurred when Mach number drifted slightly. Test measurements indicated that if Mach number drift is eliminated, results from the 8x6 would be more accurate, especially at longer distances, than results from the 9x7. The fourth test in the 9x7, called LM4, used everything we learned to comprehensively and accurately measure our new 1044-02 configuration with a full-carpet shaped signature design. Productivity was 8 times greater than our Phase 1 LM3 test. Measurement accuracy and repeatability was excellent out to 42 in. However, measurements at greater distances require the rail in the aft position and become substantially less accurate. Further signature processing or measurement improvements are needed for beyond near-field signature validation.

Morgenstern, John↗

Contamination and Surface Preparation Effects on Composite Bonding

Results presented here demonstrate the effect of several prebond surface contaminants (hydrocarbon, machining fluid, latex, silicone, peel ply residue, release film) on bond quality, as measured by fracture toughness and failure modes of carbon fiber reinforced epoxy substrates bonded in secondary and co-bond configurations with paste and film adhesives. Additionally, the capability of various prebond surface property measurement tools to detect contaminants and potentially predict subsequent bond performance of three different adhesives is also shown. Surface measurement methods included water contact angle, Dyne solution wettability, optically stimulated electron emission spectroscopy, surface free energy, inverse gas chromatography, and Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy with chemometrics analysis. Information will also be provided on the effectiveness of mechanical and energetic surface treatments to recover a bondable surface after contamination. The benefits and drawbacks of the various surface analysis tools to detect contaminants and evaluate prebond surfaces after surface treatment were assessed as well as their ability to correlate to bond performance. Surface analysis tools were also evaluated for their potential use as in-line quality control of adhesive bonding parameters in the manufacturing environment.

Kutscha, Eileen O.↗

Effects of intra- and inter-laminar resin content on the mechanical properties of toughened composite materials

Composite materials having multiphase toughened matrix systems and laminate architectures characterized by resin-rich interlaminar layers (RIL) have been the subject of much recent attention. Such materials are likely to find applications in thick compressively loaded structures such as the keel area of commercial aircraft fuselages. The effects of resin content and its interlaminar and intralaminar distribution on mechanical properties were investigated with test and analysis of two carbon-epoxy systems. The RIL was found to reduce the in situ strengthening effect for matrix cracking in laminates. Mode 2 fracture toughness was found to increase with increasing RIL thickness over the range investigated, and Mode 1 interlaminar toughness was negligibly affected. Compressive failure strains were found to increase with increasing resin content for specimens having no damage, holes, and impact damage. Analytical tools for predicting matrix cracking of off-axis plies and damage tolerance in compression after impact (CAI) were successfully applied to materials with RIL.

Grande, Dodd H.↗

Test plan. GCPS task 7, subtask 7.1: IHM development

The overall objective of Task 7 is to identify cost-effective life cycle integrated health management (IHM) approaches for a reusable launch vehicle's primary structure. Acceptable IHM approaches must: eliminate and accommodate faults through robust designs, identify optimum inspection/maintenance periods, automate ground and on-board test and check-out, and accommodate and detect structural faults by providing wide and localized area sensor and test coverage as required. These requirements are elements of our targeted primary structure low cost operations approach using airline-like maintenance by exception philosophies. This development plan will follow an evolutionary path paving the way to the ultimate development of flight-quality production, operations, and vehicle systems. This effort will be focused on maturing the recommended sensor technologies required for localized and wide area health monitoring to a technology readiness level (TRL) of 6 and to establish flight ready system design requirements. The following is a brief list of IHM program objectives: design out faults by analyzing material properties, structural geometry, and load and environment variables and identify failure modes and damage tolerance requirements; design in system robustness while meeting performance objectives (weight limitations) of the reusable launch vehicle primary structure; establish structural integrity margins to preclude the need for test and checkout and predict optimum inspection/maintenance periods through life prediction analysis; identify optimum fault protection system concept definitions combining system robustness and integrity margins established above with cost effective health monitoring technologies; and use coupons, panels, and integrated full scale primary structure test articles to identify, evaluate, and characterize the preferred NDE/NDI/IHM sensor technologies that will be a part of the fault protection system.

Greenberg, H. S.↗