Low-thrust mission risk analysis.

Abstract

A computerized multi-stage failure process simulation procedure is used to evaluate the risk in a solar electric space mission. The procedure uses currently available thrust-subsystem reliability data and performs approximate simulations of the thrust subsystem burn operation, the system failure processes, and the retargetting operations. The application of the method is used to assess the risks in carrying out a 1980 rendezvous mission to Comet Encke. Analysis of the results and evaluation of the effects of various risk factors on the mission show that system component failure rates is the limiting factor in attaining a high mission reliability. But it is also shown that a well-designed trajectory and system operation mode can be used effectively to partially compensate for unreliable thruster performance.