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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

The Lack of a QBO-MJO Connection in Climate Models With a Nudged Stratosphere

The observed stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and the tropospheric Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) are strongly connected in boreal winter, with stronger MJO activity when lower-stratospheric winds are easterly. However, the current generation of climate models with internally generated representations of the QBO and MJO do not simulate the observed QBO-MJO connection, for reasons that remain unclear. Furthermore, this study builds on prior work exploring the QBO-MJO link in climate models whose stratospheric winds are relaxed toward reanalysis, reducing stratospheric biases in the model and imposing a realistic QBO. A series of ensemble experiments are performed using four state-of-the-art climate models capable of representing the MJO over the period 1980–2015, each with similar nudging in the stratosphere. In these four models, nudging leads to a good representation of QBO wind and temperature signals, however no model simulates the observed QBO-MJO relationship. Biases in MJO vertical structure and cloud-radiative feedbacks are investigated, but no conclusive model bias or mechanism is identified that explains the lack of a QBO-MJO connection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Responses in the Subpolar North Atlantic in Two Climate Model Sensitivity Experiments with Increased Stratospheric Aerosols

Abstract The subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA) shows contrasting responses in two sensitivity experiments with increased stratospheric aerosols, offering insight into the physical processes that may impact the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in a warmer climate. In one, the upper ocean becomes warm and salty, but in the other it becomes cold and fresh. The changes are accompanied by diverging AMOC responses. The first experiment strengthens the AMOC, opposing the weakening trend in the reference simulation. The second experiment shows a much smaller impact. Both simulations use the Community Earth System Model with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model component (CESM-WACCM) but differ in model versions and stratospheric aerosol specifications. Despite both experiments using similar approaches to increase stratospheric aerosols to counteract the rising global temperature, the contrasting SPNA and AMOC responses indicate a considerable dependency on model physics, climate states, and model responses to forcings. This study focuses on examining the physical processes involved with the impact of stratospheric aerosols on the SPNA salinity changes and their potential connections with the AMOC and the Arctic. We find that in both cases, increased stratospheric aerosols act to enhance the SPNA upper-ocean salinity by reducing freshwater export from the Arctic, which is closely tied to the Arctic sea ice changes. The impact on AMOC is primarily through the thermal component of the surface buoyancy fluxes, with negligible contributions from the freshwater component. These experiments shed light on the physical processes that dictate the important connections between the SPNA, the Arctic, the AMOC, and their subsequent feedbacks on the climate system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of the EarthSHAB Stratospheric Solar Hot Air Balloon Flight Prediction Model Using Balloon Trajectory Data

Abstract The heliotrope is a solar balloon design which is constructed out of painter’s plastic, and the exterior is coated in charcoal powder. Darkening the plastic gives the balloon a high solar absorptance, which allows it to ascend into the lower stratosphere and float for hours at a time. The balloons have previously been used to lift scientific instruments into the stratosphere to study chemical explosions, earthquakes, and stratospheric aerosols. They have also been proposed as a platform for planetary exploration. Flight predictions are crucial to preflight planning to reduce safety risks and meet flight objectives. However, there exists a wide range of possible flight paths due to varying environmental conditions and solar balloon configurations. EarthSHAB is one such software that was designed to support flight planning using the weather forecasts and balloon properties to predict the flight path of a solar balloon. We compare EarthSHAB-simulated flight paths to a set of observed flight paths for the 3.5-m diameter heliotrope design called the “Cloudskimmer.” Using the criteria that the modeled paths must fall within 5% of the observations to be considered successful, we found that EarthSHAB successfully predicted the Cloudskimmer ascent rate and average float altitude 10% and 90% of the time, respectively. We also found that the average difference in the observed and predicted landing locations was 97 km and landing times were 54 ± 38 min. Significant deviations between the observed and predicted ascent rates and excursions at float were found to be associated with heavy payloads and convective cloud development, respectively. Significance Statement Solar balloons are used to lift scientific instruments into the lower stratosphere for hours at a time to study chemical explosions, earthquakes, stratospheric aerosols, and more. The flight paths of solar balloons can be difficult to predict due to variability in their design and surrounding environment. We evaluate the accuracy of EarthSHAB, a software that predicts the altitude profile and horizontal trajectory of a solar balloon using inputs such as the weather, balloon size, and balloon mass. Our results suggest that for the balloon design used in this study, EarthSHAB is best suited for modeling the behavior of balloons with lightweight payloads that do not fly within or directly above clouds.

Lien, Jessica M. [Sandia National Laboratories, Al↗
DOE OSTI2023

Beryllium Isotopes in Rainfall for Stratospheric-Tropospheric Exchange Dynamics Experiment (BIRDIE) (Field Campaign Report)

The Beryllium Isotopes in Rainfall for Stratospheric-Tropospheric Exchange Dynamics Experiment or BIRDIE was a precipitation collection campaign designed to measure cosmogenic isotopes of beryllium in rainfall and other forms of precipitation across the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility’s Southern Great Plains (SGP) atmospheric observatory. Precipitation samples were collected over three weeks (May 21-June 10, 2022) at 11 SGP sites across a 120-km 2 domain in northern and central Oklahoma. The field campaign targeted summertime convection rain events. We aimed to capture any spatial and/or temporal variability in the concentrations of beryllium-10 (10Be) and beryllium-7 (7Be) across the ARM SGP site during these rainfall events. The ratio of 10Be to 7Be (10/7Be) has been shown to be a powerful tracer for transport processes in the stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE) system (e.g., Koch and Rind 1998). Any observed variability is analyzed to see if it could be linked to STE processes, including overshooting of deep convection clouds that penetrate the lower stratosphere. Six wet weather system events were collected within our three-week span. Five out of six of these rainfall events are classified as moderately to strongly convective. Those events are studied in more detail. The five systems also follow each other over a short period of 11 days. In our rainfall samples we observed spatial and event variability in the concentrations of beryllium-10 and -7 that resulted in variability of 10/7Be ratios. Each weather event appeared to exhibit a unique 10/7Be pattern across the domain that was not directly linked to storm total precipitation amount. To better understand the causes for this spatial variability, cloud characteristics in the domain were looked at to assess cloud type, cloud height, and depth information. We also ran Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model back trajectories to identify possible air mass and moisture origins across our events. Detailed analysis is ongoing. The purpose of this technical report is to provide background on using cosmogenic isotopes as atmospheric tracers, describe the experimental design, and present the beryllium concentration and ratio data. Lastly, we note that BIRDIE coincided with two other deep convection field campaigns in the area: The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)’s Dynamics and Chemistry of the Summer Stratosphere (DCOTSS) experiment (https://dcotss.org/) centered in Salina, Kansas, and the Targeted Observation by Radars and (uncrewed aerial systems) UAS of Supercells (TORUS) experiment (https://catalog.eol.ucar.edu/torus_2022) across the U.S. Central Plains. Additionally, a Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory ( LLNL) team at DCOTSS attempted to measure 10Be/7Be ratios on aerosols collected in situ in the lower and mid-stratosphere over Kansas using high-altitude balloons. Precipitation samples were also collected on the ground in Salina, Kansas.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Australian wildfire smoke in the stratosphere: the decay phase in 2020/2021 and impact on ozone depletion

Abstract. Record-breaking wildfires raged in southeastern Australia in late December 2019 and early January 2020. Rather strong pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) convection developed over the fire areas and lofted enormous amounts of biomass burning smoke into the tropopause region and caused the strongest wildfire-related stratospheric aerosol perturbation ever observed around the globe. We discuss the geometrical, optical, and microphysical properties of the stratospheric smoke layers and the decay of this major stratospheric perturbation. A multiwavelength polarization Raman lidar at Punta Arenas (53.2∘ S, 70.9∘ W), southern Chile, and an elastic backscatter Raman lidar at Río Grande (53.8∘ S, 67.7∘ W) in southern Argentina, were operated to monitor the major record-breaking event until the end of 2021. These lidar measurements can be regarded as representative for mid to high latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere. A unique dynamical feature, an anticyclonic, smoke-filled vortex with 1000 km horizontal width and 5 km vertical extent, which ascended by about 500 m d−1, was observed over the full last week of January 2020. The key results of the long-term study are as follows. The smoke layers extended, on average, from 9 to 24 km in height. The smoke partly ascended to more than 30 km height as a result of self-lofting processes. Clear signs of a smoke impact on the record-breaking ozone hole over Antarctica in September–November 2020 were found. A slow decay of the stratospheric perturbation detected by means of the 532 nm aerosol optical thickness (AOT) yielded an e-folding decay time of 19–20 months. The maximum smoke AOT was around 1.0 over Punta Arenas in January 2020 and thus 2 to 3 orders of magnitude above the stratospheric aerosol background of 0.005. After 2 months with strongly varying smoke conditions, the 532 nm AOT decreased to 0.03-0.06 from March–December 2020 and to 0.015–0.03 throughout 2021. The particle extinction coefficients at 532 nm were in the range of 10–75 Mm−1 in January 2020 and, later on, mostly between 1 and 5 Mm−1. Combined lidar–photometer retrievals revealed typical smoke extinction-to-backscatter ratios of 69 ± 19 sr (at 355 nm), 91 ± 17 sr (at 532 nm), and 120 ± 22 sr (at 1064 nm). An ozone reduction of 20 %–25 % in the 15–22 km height range was observed over Antarctica and New Zealand ozonesonde stations in the smoke-polluted air, with particle surface area concentrations of 1–5 µm2 cm−3.

Ohneiser, Kevin↗
DOE OSTI2023

Climate response to off-equatorial stratospheric sulfur injections in three Earth system models – Part 1: Experimental protocols and surface changes

There is now substantial literature on climate model studies of equatorial or tropical stratospheric SO 2 injections that aim to counteract the surface warming produced by rising concentrations of greenhouse gases. Here we present the results from the first systematic intercomparison of climate responses in three Earth system models wherein the injection of SO 2 occurs at different latitudes in the lower stratosphere: CESM2-WACCM6, UKESM1.0 and GISS-E2.1-G. The first two use a modal aerosol microphysics scheme, while two versions of GISS-E2.1-G use a bulk aerosol (One-Moment Aerosol, OMA) and a two-moment (Multiconfiguration Aerosol TRacker of mIXing state, MATRIX) microphysics approach, respectively. Our aim in this work is to determine commonalities and differences between the climate model responses in terms of the distribution of the optically reflective sulfate aerosols produced from the oxidation of SO 2 and in terms of the surface response to the resulting reduction in solar radiation. A focus on understanding the contribution of characteristics of models transport alongside their microphysical and chemical schemes, and on evaluating the resulting stratospheric responses in different models, is given in the companion paper (Bednarz et al., 2023). The goal of this exercise is not to evaluate these single-point injection simulations as stand-alone proposed strategies to counteract global warming; instead we determine sources and areas of agreement and uncertainty in the simulated responses and, ultimately, the possibility of designing a comprehensive intervention strategy capable of managing multiple simultaneous climate goals through the combination of different injection locations. We find large disagreements between GISS-E2.1-G and the CESM2-WACCM6 and UKESM1.0 models regarding the magnitude of cooling per unit of aerosol optical depth (AOD) produced, which varies from 4.7 K per unit of AOD in CESM2-WACCM6 to 16.7 K in the GISS-E2.1-G version with two-moment aerosol microphysics. By normalizing the results with the global mean response in each of the models and thus assuming that the amount of SO 2 injected is a free parameter that can be managed independently, we highlight some commonalities in the overall distributions of the aerosols, in the inter-hemispheric surface temperature response and in shifts to the Intertropical Convergence Zone, as well as some areas of disagreement, such as the extent of the aerosol confinement in the equatorial region and the efficiency of the transport to polar latitudes. In conclusion, we demonstrate that it is possible to use these simulations to produce more comprehensive injection strategies in multiple climate models. However, large differences in the injection magnitudes can be expected, potentially increasing inter-model spreads in some stratospheric quantities (such as aerosol distribution) while reducing the spread in the surface response in terms of temperature and precipitation; furthermore, the selection of the injection locations may be dependent on the models' specific stratospheric transport.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Size-resolved process understanding of stratospheric sulfate aerosol following the Pinatubo eruption

Stratospheric sulfate aerosol produced by volcanic eruptions plays important roles in atmospheric chemistry and the global radiative balance of the atmosphere. The simulation of stratospheric sulfate concentrations and optical properties is highly dependent on the chemistry scheme and microphysical treatment. In this work, we implemented a sophisticated gas-phase chemistry scheme (full chemistry, FC) and a 5-mode version of the Modal Aerosol Module with Prognostic Stratospheric Aerosol (MAM5-PSA) for the interactive treatment of stratospheric sulfate aerosol in the Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2) model to better simulate the chemistry-aerosol feedback following the Pinatubo eruption, and to compare it against a simulation using simplified chemistry (SC) and the default 4-mode version of the Modal Aerosol Module (MAM4). MAM5-PSA experiments were found to better capture the stratospheric sulfate burden from the eruption of the volcano to the end of 1992 as compared to the High-resolution Infrared Sounder (HIRS) observations, and the formation of sulfate in MAM5-PSA with FC (with an additional OH replenishment reaction) was significantly faster than in MAM4 with FC. Analyses of microphysical processes indicate that more sulfate aerosol mass was generated in total in FC experiments than in SC experiments. MAM5-PSA performs better than MAM4 in simulation of aerosol optical depth (AOD); AOD anomalies from the MAM5-PSA experiment have better agreement with observations. The simulated largest changes in global mean net radiative flux at the top of the atmosphere following the eruption were about −3 W m −2 in MAM5-PSA experiments and roughly −1.5 W m −2 in MAM4 experiments.

AEROSOL↗
DOE OSTI2023

Estimating the Meridional Extent of Adiabatic Mixing in the Stratosphere Using Age-Of-Air

Wave-induced adiabatic mixing in the winter midlatitudes is one of the key processes impacting stratospheric transport. Understanding its strength and structure is vital to understanding the distribution of trace gases and their modulation under a changing climate. Age-of-air is often used to understand stratospheric transport, and this study proposes refinements to the vertical age gradient theory of Linz et al. (2021), https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JD035199. The theory assumes exchange of air between a well-mixed tropics and a well-mixed extratropics, separated by a transport barrier, quantifying the adiabatic mixing flux across the interface using age-based measures. These assumptions are re-evaluated and a refined framework that includes the effects of meridional tracer gradients is established to quantify the mixing flux. This is achieved, in part, by computing a circulation streamfunction in age-potential temperature coordinates to generate a complete distribution of parcel ages being mixed in the midlatitudes. The streamfunction quantifies the “true” age of parcels mixed between the tropics and the extratropics. Applying the revised theory to an idealized and a comprehensive climate model reveals that ignoring the meridional gradients in age leads to an underestimation of the wave-driven mixing flux. Stronger, and qualitatively similar fluxes are obtained in both models, especially in the lower-to-middle stratosphere. While the meridional span of adiabatic mixing in the two models exhibits some differences, they show that the deep tropical pipe, that is, latitudes equatorward of 15° barely mix with older midlatitude air. The novel age-potential temperature circulation can be used to quantify additional aspects of stratospheric transport.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Lack of Evidence on the Madden–Julian Oscillation to Drive Its Relationship With the Quasi–Biennial Oscillation Through Modulation of Stratospheric Wave Activity

Previous studies have found that Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) amplitude depends on the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) during boreal winter. This MJO-QBO relationship is important to realizing subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction skills, but the underlying mechanism remains unclear. It is often thought that this relationship arises through the modulation of the upper-troposphere and lower-stratosphere lapse rate by the QBO, but this mechanism assumes the one-way impact of the QBO onto the MJO. Alternatively, the MJO can be hypothesized to influence the QBO by modulating stratospheric wave activity that is known to be critical to QBO dynamics. Therefore, using satellite and reanalysis data, this study examines whether MJO monthly activity can impact stratospheric wave activity and QBO downward propagation speed. The results depicted a lack of such impacts, suggesting this observed MJO-QBO relationship cannot be driven by the MJO modulation of stratospheric wave forcing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Stratospheric Climate Anomalies and Ozone Loss Caused by the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai Volcanic Eruption

We report the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai (HTHH) volcanic eruption in January 2022 injected unprecedented amounts of water vapor (H 2 O) and a moderate amount of the aerosol precursor sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) into the Southern Hemisphere (SH) tropical stratosphere. The H 2 O and aerosol perturbations have persisted during 2022 and early 2023 and dispersed throughout the atmosphere. Observations show large-scale SH stratospheric cooling, equatorward shift of the Antarctic polar vortex and slowing of the Brewer-Dobson circulation. Satellite observations show substantial ozone reductions over SH winter midlatitudes that coincide with the largest circulation anomalies. Chemistry-climate model simulations forced by realistic HTHH inputs of H 2 O and SO 2 qualitatively reproduce the observed evolution of the H 2 O and aerosol plumes over the first year, and the model exhibits stratospheric cooling, circulation changes and ozone effects similar to observed behavior. The agreement demonstrates that the observed stratospheric changes are caused by the HTHH volcanic influences.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Limited surface impacts of the January 2021 sudden stratospheric warming

Subseasonal weather prediction can reduce economic disruption and loss of life, especially during “windows of opportunity” when noteworthy events in the Earth system are followed by characteristic weather patterns. Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs), breakdowns of the winter stratospheric polar vortex, are one such event. They often precede warm temperatures in Northern Canada and cold, stormy weather throughout Europe and the United States - including the most recent SSW on January 5th, 2021. Here we assess the drivers of surface weather in the weeks following the SSW through initial condition “scrambling” experiments using the real-time CESM2(WACCM6) Earth system prediction framework. We find that the SSW itself had a limited impact, and that stratospheric polar vortex stretching and wave reflection had no discernible contribution to the record cold in North America in February. Instead, the tropospheric circulation and bidirectional coupling between the troposphere and stratosphere were dominant contributors to variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Stratospheric aerosol injection can weaken the carbon dioxide greenhouse effect

Abstract Stratospheric aerosol injection is a proposed method for offsetting greenhouse gas-induced warming by introducing scattering aerosols into the lower stratosphere to reflect sunlight. Here we explore a potentially more efficient alternative: weakening the Earth’s greenhouse effect by deploying absorptive aerosols in the upper stratosphere (~10 hPa). These aerosols warm the carbon dioxide emission level—where outgoing longwave radiation is most sensitive to temperature—thereby enhancing top-of-atmosphere infrared emission without altering atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. Idealized climate model simulations indicate that this approach can reduce global temperatures an order of magnitude more efficiently per unit aerosol mass than conventional scattering-based interventions. Although based on simplified model experiments lacking interactive aerosol processes and operational constraints, our results identify a distinct physical mechanism for climate intervention, arguing for further research into the impacts—especially potential unintended side effects—of injecting absorptive aerosols into the upper stratosphere as an alternative solar radiation management strategy.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2021

Harnessing stratospheric diffusion barriers for enhanced climate geoengineering

Stratospheric sulfate aerosol geoengineering is a proposed method to temporarily intervene in the climate system to increase the reflectance of shortwave radiation and reduce mean global temperature. In previous climate modeling studies, choosing injection locations for geoengineering aerosols has, thus far, only utilized the average dynamics of stratospheric wind fields instead of accounting for the essential role of time-varying material transport barriers in turbulent atmospheric flows. Here we conduct the first analysis of sulfate aerosol dispersion in the stratosphere, comparing what is now a standard fixed-injection scheme with time-varying injection locations that harness short-term stratospheric diffusion barriers. We show how diffusive transport barriers can quickly be identified, and we provide an automated injection location selection algorithm using short forecast and reanalysis data. Within the first 7 d days of transport, the dynamics-based approach is able to produce particle distributions with greater global coverage than fixed-site methods with fewer injections. Additionally, this enhanced dispersion slows aerosol microphysical growth and can reduce the effective radii of aerosols up to 200–300 d after injection. While the long-term dynamics of aerosol dispersion are accurately predicted with transport barriers calculated from short forecasts, the long-term influence on radiative forcing is more difficult to predict and warrants deeper investigation. Statistically significant changes in radiative forcing at timescales beyond the forecasting window showed mixed results, potentially increasing or decreasing forcing after 1 year when compared to fixed injections. We conclude that future feasibility studies of geoengineering should consider the cooling benefits possible by strategically injecting sulfate aerosols at optimized time-varying locations. Our method of utilizing time-varying attracting and repelling structures shows great promise for identifying optimal dispersion locations, and radiative forcing impacts can be improved by considering additional meteorological variables.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Long-range prediction and the stratosphere

Abstract. Over recent years there have been concomitant advances in the development of stratosphere-resolving numerical models, our understanding of stratosphere–troposphere interaction, and the extension of long-range forecasts to explicitly include the stratosphere. These advances are now allowing for new and improved capability in long-range prediction. We present an overview of this development and show how the inclusion of the stratosphere in forecast systems aids monthly, seasonal, and annual-to-decadal climate predictions and multidecadal projections. We end with an outlook towards the future and identify areas of improvement that could further benefit these rapidly evolving predictions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Using TRMM Latent Heat as a Source to Estimate Convection Induced Gravity Wave Momentum Flux in the Lower Stratosphere

Due to a lack of observations, it is a big challenge to quantify the momentum flux transported from the troposphere into the lower stratosphere by gravity waves generated by convection. This limits our understanding of the dynamics of general circulation in the stratosphere and the realism of simulations of the Quasi Biennial Oscillation. In the past decade, some general circulation models have linked the momentum flux to the latent heating from subgrid scale convective precipitation with some success. However, there is still a large uncertainty in the sources of subgrid scale convection in these models. This study applies the links between the momentum flux and convective latent heating directly to the convective precipitation derived from 16 years of TRMM precipitation radar observations in the tropics and subtropics. The total and directional momentum flux at 100 hPa are derived at individual convective pixels by using the TRMM Spectrum Latent Heating product and large-scale wind profiles from the ERA-Interim dataset. For the first time, we are able to estimate the geographical distribution of momentum flux at 100 hPa in tropics and subtropics from the observed convective sources. The diurnal, seasonal, and interannual variations of the derived momentum flux are presented and discussed. These results could provide a reference to validate the dynamic coupling between the tropical troposphere and the stratosphere in the general circulation models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Cold-air outbreaks in the continental US: Connections with stratospheric variations

Mid-latitude Northern Hemisphere extreme cold events continue to occur despite overall winter warming trends. These events have been linked to weakened stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) states. In this study, we analyze both the upper and lower polar stratosphere for links to extreme winter cold and snow in the continental US, finding two SPV variations of interest. The first features an upper-level vortex displaced toward western Canada and linked to northwestern US severe winter weather. The second features a weakened upper-level vortex displaced toward the North Atlantic and linked to central-eastern US severe winter weather. Both variations feature lower-level stretched vortices and stratospheric wave reflection. Since 2015, a northwestward shift in severe winter weather across the US is concurrent with an increase in the frequency of the westward-focused variation relative to the eastward-focused variation and a shift to more negative phases of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modulation of North Atlantic Polar Low Activity and Associated Flow Patterns by Sudden Stratospheric Warmings

Abstract Polar lows (PLs) are intense maritime mesoscale cyclones that can pose hazards to coastal communities and marine operation in the Arctic. This study examines the impacts of sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) on PL activity in the subarctic North Atlantic. The 20 days following SSWs are characterized by tropospheric circulation anomalies resembling the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation. PL activity decreases significantly over the Labrador Sea, which can be attributed to the infrequent occurrence of low static stability and strong environmental baroclinicity, as well as reduced surface turbulent heat fluxes. These results suggest that a skillful prediction of SSWs can improve the extended-range forecast of PL activity over the Labrador Sea. For the Nordic seas, the results imply that the spatial structure of an SSW event is important for the PL modulation through different tropospheric circulation patterns. Situations with increased PL frequency in the Nordic seas are characterized by SSWs centered close to northern Greenland occurring over a smaller area, and a tropospheric response featuring enhanced cold-air outbreaks over the Norwegian Sea. Conversely, PL activity is suppressed over the Nordic seas when the SSW favors the formation of a tropospheric anticyclone above Greenland and Scandinavia. Significance Statement This study investigates the relationships between polar lows (PLs) and sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) over the subarctic North Atlantic. A better understanding of the effect of SSWs on PL development has the potential to improve extended-range forecasts of PLs. It is shown that SSWs are responsible for the significantly suppressed regional PL activity over the Labrador Sea, suggesting that SSWs can serve as a predictor for the extended-range forecast of PLs over this region. Following SSW events, the thermodynamic state of atmosphere becomes more stable over the Labrador Sea and hinders the convective development of PLs. For the northern Nordic seas, the impacts of SSWs on PL activity are sensitive to the spatial structure of stratospheric warming.

Chang, Chuan-Chieh↗
DOE OSTI2023

Life Cycle of Major Sudden Stratospheric Warmings in the Southern Hemisphere from a Multimillennial GCM Simulation

Abstract Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are rare in the Southern Hemisphere (SH), making it difficult to study possible precursors or subsequent impacts. Using a multimillennial coupled climate model simulation producing 161 SSWs in the SH, we present a detailed study of their life cycle. We show that SH SSWs are predominantly displacement events forced by wave-1 planetary waves, and that a surface signature similar to the negative phase of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is detectable up to two months before the onset date, but there is a tendency for a transition from wave 1 before to zonally symmetric anomalies after onset. We identify a strong weakening of the Amundsen Sea low as one of the most prominent precursors, which weakens the climatological wave-2 and wave-3 stationary waves and strengthens wave-1 forcing. Compared to their northern counterparts, SH SSWs generally have a longer time scale, and while there is evidence of pre-onset forcing related to tropical sea surface temperatures, the Indian Ocean dipole is more important than El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Significance Statement Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are extreme events where the winter polar stratosphere warms within a few days to temperatures usually only experienced in summer. These events are rare in the Southern Hemisphere. Therefore, both the observational record and standard climate model simulations are not enough to understand how SSWs develop, or how they might change surface weather. Here we use very long global climate simulations that produce a large number of SSWs in the Southern Hemisphere to study the development and impact of these events. This includes possible precursors as well as the influence they have on surface weather after they occur.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗