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DOE OSTI2023

Uncertainty quantification in machine learning for engineering design and health prognostics: A tutorial

On top of machine learning (ML) models, uncertainty quantification (UQ) functions as an essential layer of safety assurance that could lead to more principled decision making by enabling sound risk assessment and management. The safety and reliability improvement of ML models empowered by UQ has the potential to significantly facilitate the broad adoption of ML solutions in high-stakes decision settings, such as healthcare, manufacturing, and aviation, to name a few. In this tutorial, we aim to provide a holistic lens on emerging UQ methods for ML models with a particular focus on neural networks and the applications of these UQ methods in tackling engineering design as well as prognostics and health management problems. Towards this goal, we start with a comprehensive classification of uncertainty types, sources, and causes pertaining to UQ of ML models. Next, we provide a tutorial-style description of several state-of-the-art UQ methods: Gaussian process regression, Bayesian neural network, neural network ensemble, and deterministic UQ methods focusing on spectral-normalized neural Gaussian process. Established upon the mathematical formulations, we subsequently examine the soundness of these UQ methods quantitatively and qualitatively (by a toy regression example) to examine their strengths and shortcomings from different dimensions. Then, we review quantitative metrics commonly used to assess the quality of predictive uncertainty in classification and regression problems. Afterward, we discuss the increasingly important role of UQ of ML models in solving challenging problems in engineering design and health prognostics. In conclusion, two case studies with source codes available on GitHub are used to demonstrate these UQ methods and compare their performance in the life prediction of lithium-ion batteries at the early stage (case study 1) and the remaining useful life prediction of turbofan engines (case study 2).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Preliminary Plan to Inform Testing of a Heat Exchanger Test Article

This report presents a preliminary plan to guide the qualification testing of advanced heat exchanger (HX) components for nuclear-to-industrial heat transfer applications. The objective is to establish a defensible, physics-based methodology that integrates computational modeling, targeted experimentation, and in-service inspection considerations to demonstrate component performance and reliability under representative reactor conditions. The analysis identifies Sodium-cooled Fast Reactor (SFR) and High-Temperature Gas-cooled Reactor (HTGR) systems as reference configurations in terms of temperature, pressure, and chemical environment. Within these operating envelopes, dominant degradation mechanisms— including creep–fatigue interaction, flow-induced vibration, corrosion, and diffusion-bond deterioration—were evaluated to define test requirements. A comprehensive computationalexperimental framework is proposed to support life prediction and qualification activities. The framework couples high-fidelity structural-mechanics, thermal-hydraulic, and fluid-structure interaction models with accelerated degradation testing to produce a traceable linkage between microstructural evolution, mechanical performance, and remaining useful life (RUL). The approach adheres to established Verification, Validation, and Uncertainty Quantification (VVUQ) standards (ASME V&V 10/20; NUREG-2152) and incorporates a digital-twin architecture for continuous model refinement through data assimilation. The plan further outlines testing methodologies, including pre-test analyses, test-loop design parameters, and sensor placement strategies that maximize information yield while maintaining mechanistic fidelity. Complementary sections describe in-service inspection (ISI), on-line monitoring (OLM), and structural-health-monitoring (SHM) techniques applicable to compact HX geometries typical of advanced reactors. Collectively, these activities establish the technical foundation for demonstrating 40-60-year equivalent service life of advanced heat exchangers in support of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Advanced Reactor and Integrated Energy Systems programs. The forthcoming phase will execute the defined pre-test analyses, initiate hardware fabrication, and implement the integrated testing campaign to validate the proposed qualification methodology.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Monitoring Degradation of Nuclear Cable Insulation Subjected To Sequential and Simultaneous Thermal and Radiation Aging

Predicting useful remaining life of cables in nuclear power plants is a topic of growing interest as plant continue to age. A typical electrical cable consists of polymeric materials, such as the cable jacket and insulation, which are susceptible to degradation due to exposure to both elevated temperatures and gamma irradiation over decades of service. In this work two insulation materials, crosslinked polyethylene (XLPE) and ethylene propylene diene (EPDM) elastomer, were characterized to quantify aging using total color difference and indenter modulus. Since the effects of thermal and gamma radiation are not additive but coupled, the effects of different aging scenarios including sequential and simultaneous aging were also evaluated. In the case of sequential aging, two aging scenarios were explored where the order in which thermal and gamma radiation received were altered. Total color difference of XLPE showed that sequentially aged insulation specimens, which received radiation first, degraded slightly more at maximum exposure than specimens which received thermal first. Similarly, in the case of EPDM, the extent of degradation evaluated using total color difference was found to be most severe in the case of sequentially aged insulation specimens which received radiation first. Indenter modulus was found to be insensitive to aging for XLPE but trended for EPDM. The largest variations were observed for the sequentially aged insulation specimens which received radiation first, similar to what was observed for total color difference.

Pallaka, Madhusudhan Reddy↗

DOE OSTI2022

3D Frequency Domain Reflectometry Digital Twin of an Electrical Cable: A First Glance

Electrical cables within nuclear power plants (NPPs) are critical components required for power, control, and instrumentation systems which may be exposed to stressors, such as elevated temperatures and gamma radiation. Such stressors can lead to a reduction in the remaining useful life of electrical cables, jeopardizing the safety of NPP systems. To evaluate the effect of stressors on the degradation of electrical cables, electrical reflectometry methods are commonly employed. Frequency domain reflectometry (FDR) is a non-destructive electrical reflectometry method that uses transmission line theory to detect degradation or impedance changes within electrical cables. However, in most cases FDR is only applied to de-energized cables, limiting the application in NPPs as the cable system must be taken offline. In this work, we explore the development of an FDR digital twin to predict the degradation of an electrical cable exposed to elevated temperature, which is expected to reduce the need for offline FDR. A 3-conductor low-voltage electrical cable was selected for evaluation of the digital twin. The fully three-dimensional digital twin was developed in COMSOL using the RF module. A cable length of 30-m and frequency bandwidth of 400 MHz was selected to mimic real-world application of FDR. Over a 1-m region, the permittivity of the insulation was varied by up to 20% to model thermal degradation. The results demonstrate accurate detection of the insulation damage region, supporting further investigation of the FDR digital twin using real-world data and machine learning for predictive damage estimation or remaining lifetime.

Spencer, Mychal P.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Root Cause Analysis of Degradation in Protonic Ceramic Electrochemical Cell with Interfacial Electrical Sensors Using Data‐Driven Machine Learning

Abstract Protonic ceramic electrochemical cells (PCECs) offer promising paths for energy storage and conversion. Despite considerable achievements made, PCECs still face challenges such as physiochemical compatibility between componenets and suboptimal solid–solid contact at the interfaces between the electrolytes and electrodes. In this study, a novel approach is proposed that combines in situ electrochemical characterization of interfacial electrical sensor embedded PCECs and machine learning to quantify the contributions of different cell components to total degradation, as well as to predict the remaining useful life. The experimental results suggest that the overpotential induced by the oxygen electrode is 48% less than that of oxygen electrode/electrolyte interfacial contact for up to 1171 h. The data‐driven machine learning simulation predicts the RUL of up to 2132 h. The root cause of degradation is overpotential increase induced by oxygen electrode, which accounts for 82.9% of total cell degradation. The success of the failure diagnostic model is demonstrated by its consistency with degradation modes that do not manifest in electrolysis fade during early real operations. This synergistic approach provides valuable insights into practical failure diagnosis of PCECs and has the potential to revolutionize their development by enabling improved performance prediction and material selection for enhanced durability and efficiency.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Field validation of dynamic mechanical torque measurements using fiber-optic strain sensors for geared wind turbines

Abstract Accurate knowledge of the mechanical loads of wind turbine gearboxes has become essential in modern, highly loaded gearbox designs, as maintaining or even improving gearbox reliability with increasing torque density demands is proving to be challenging. Unfortunately, the traditional method of measuring dynamic mechanical torque using strain gauges placed on the outer surface of a rotating shaft and transmitting the resulting signal is unsuitable for serial deployment due to technical and economic constraints. An alternative method based on fiber-optic strain sensors placed on the stationary outer surface of the gearbox ring gear has been proposed. Like shaft torsion, the radial deformation of the ring gear is proportionate to the rotor torque. Placing the sensors on a stationary component is a cost-effective alternative for serial implementation because the need for complex and expensive data transfer via wireless transmission or a slip ring is eliminated. In this paper, we present the results of an extensive field experiment conducted to evaluate the torque measurement accuracy of this novel sensing solution installed on the gearbox of a Gamesa G97 2-MW wind turbine at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s Flatirons Campus. Torque measurements derived from fiber-optic strain sensors placed on the ring gear of the planetary stage are compared to conventional torque measurements from strain gauges placed on the main shaft. Two different torque estimation data processing methods were evaluated, with the method based on operational deflection shapes providing the most accurate results with an average normalized root mean square error below 0.7% for a load revolution distribution analysis. The effect of operating conditions on the torque estimate was also investigated, and the third planet-passing operational deflection shape was found to be the least sensitive to nontorque load-related effects. The fiber-optic strain sensors’ successful operation during the complete test campaign has demonstrated a robust and accurate solution for fleet-wide enhanced gearbox remaining useful life estimation.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Development of a health monitoring framework: Application to a supercritical pulverized coal-fired boiler

In this study, this work details the development of a physics-based equipment health monitoring framework for a supercritical boiler, using first-principles models to estimate the remaining useful life (RUL) of its components. The framework accounts for fatigue and creep life consumption, generating spatio-temporal variations in mechanical and thermal stress. Analysis of the stress profile throughout the boiler highlights the finishing superheater inlet steam header as a vulnerable location susceptible to damage from cycling operation. The framework also yields quantified uncertainty in the RUL projection for specific locations, accounting for uncertainties in material properties and boiler operation. Results indicate that operational uncertainties (e.g., seasonal variation and operational strategy) and material properties (e.g., rupture time coefficients, Young’s modulus, yield strength, and coefficient of thermal expansion) significantly impact the RUL of the finishing superheater inlet steam header. Additionally, case studies demonstrate the use of the health monitoring framework as a predictive tool for operational planning under uncertainty, including scenarios with and without updates on the operation of the boiler.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Prognostic model and failure mechanisms of steam generators in Sodium-Cooled fast reactors

This paper presents a prognostic model for sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR) steam generators (SGs). Here, the purpose of the model is to estimate the remaining useful life of SFR SGs and thus to support the decision-making of autonomous control. SFR SGs are of great interest for plant integrity due to their harsh operation environment. They operate at higher temperatures and higher coolant-to-steam pressure differences than those of current light water reactors (LWR). The severity of the SFR SG failure consequences, which include water-sodium contact, is another reason. Understanding its failure mechanisms is important for the development of its prognostic model. Based on our literature review and physics-based analysis, we concluded that creep would be a dominant degradation mode of SFR SGs due to SFR’s high-temperature and high-pressure environment. Thus, creep is the focus of the prognostic model. Various other failure modes were also investigated in this study. The mechanical fatigue due to flow-induced vibration is usually observed in early developmental phases and would not be an important issue during normal operation. The thermal fatigue due to thermal stripping is occasionally observed in other components in SFRs but does not affect SG integrity. Pure water stress corrosive crack, fretting, and so on are commonly observed in LWR SGs but are significantly less important in SFR SGs because of the high temperatures, high pressure differences, and chemical properties of liquid sodium. Based on these investigations, a prognostic model focusing on creep failures was developed. It estimates the failure probability profile by sampling the Larson-Miller parameter (LMP) and temperature and associated uncertainties through Monte Carlo methods. Two case studies were presented. The first one demonstrated the model’s capability to calculate the failure probability for a new specimen within a given time. If the tube is working under temperatures of 500C ± 3 and pressures of 15.2 MPa, which leads to LMP of 20,100 ± 50, the failure probabilities within 50, 70, and 90 years are approximately 0.1 %, 3.2 %, and 17.5 %. The second demonstrated how adjusting the workload can help to protect the integrity of the component. For an old tube reaching 99 % of its lifespan, continuing to run at temperatures of 500C ± 3 and LMP of 20,100 ± 50 leads to a failure probability of about 29.0 % within a year. If the temperature is reduced by 5C, the failure probability can be reduced to 2.5 %, and, if the pressure is also reduced such that the LMP is increased by 100, the failure probability can further be reduced to 0.12 %.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Model correction and updating of a stochastic degradation model for failure prognostics of miter gates

Understanding the degradation of the quoin block is vital for failure prognostics in miter gates. Due to the complicated degradation mechanism, degradation models based on simplifications and assumptions cannot accurately describe the damage evolution. It is observed that small errors in a simplified degradation model can lead to a large discrepancy in the remaining useful life estimation attributed to error accumulation over time. Aiming to address this issue in failure prognostics, this paper presents a dynamic model correction framework for a simplified degradation model using strain measurements. In the proposed framework, a polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) model is employed to compensate the missing physics in a simplified stochastic degradation model. Here, a maximum likelihood estimation method is developed to estimate the uncertain parameters of the simplified physics-based degradation model along with the unknown PCE model parameters using strain measurements as the observables. The updated damage degradation model is then applied to failure prognostics of a miter gate. Results of a case study show that the proposed approach can effectively improve the accuracy of failure prognostics in miter gates.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

A survey on degradation modeling, prognosis, and prognostics-driven maintenance in wind energy systems

Wind energy generation proliferated over the past decades, introducing unique challenges and opportunities for failure prediction, operation and maintenance. Decision-makers are continuously looking into new methods to infer failure mechanisms and behaviors of wind turbine components to detect and intervene in the failures before they happen. Evidently, degradation modeling and prognosis become engaging topics for researchers and practitioners to prevent catastrophic failures. Prognostics-driven approaches predict the time of failure for the components (e.g., predicting remaining useful life), which provides significant insights for scheduling of operations and maintenance activities. Integrating these prognostics-driven insights into wind farm operations and maintenance presents a substantial challenge, demanding careful consideration of numerous factors such as accessibility, crew routing, and spare part logistics. This study provides state-of-the-art review for degradation modeling, prognosis, and prognostics-driven maintenance techniques for wind energy systems. The discussed techniques align with the United Nations' sustainable development goals, in particular Goal 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy), by enhancing effectiveness and sustainability of wind energy operations. This work also showcases open research questions related to degradation modeling, prognosis, and prognostics-driven maintenance.

Altinpulluk, Nur Banu↗

DOE OSTI2023

On the Language of Reliability: A System Engineer Perspective

In its classical definition, risk is defined by three elements: what can go wrong, what are its consequences, and how likely is it to occur? While this definition makes sense in a regulatory-based framework where for the current fleet of operating light water reactors (LWRs), the risks associated with nuclear power plants typically are characterized in terms of core damage and large early release frequency (LERF), this approach does not provide a useful snapshot of the health of the plant from a broader perspective. This is due to the very narrow context in which the term “risk” typically is defined as nuclear safety aspects that have the potential to impact public health. In this paper, we take the viewpoint of nuclear safety that is reflective of the current fleet of operating LWRs for which core damage frequency and LERF are appropriate metrics. For other advanced reactor designs, other more applicable technology neutral metrics of reactor safety metrics would be specified. A possible alternate path would start by redefining the word risk with a broader meaning that better reflects the needs of a system health and asset management decision-making process. Rather than asking how likely an event could occur (in probabilistic terms), we can ask how far this event is from occurring. Our approach starts by defining and quantifying component and system health in terms of a “distance” between its actual and limiting conditions, i.e., determination of the margin that exists between the current state/condition and the state where the component/system is no longer capable of achieving its intended function. A margin is a measure that is more reflective of the current state or performance of a component, and therefore more closely tied to decisions that are made on an ongoing basis. Further, we will show how, given the data available from plant equipment reliability and monitoring (e.g., pump vibration data) and prognostic (e.g., component remaining useful life estimation) data, a margin can be described and determined for all types of maintenance approaches (e.g., corrective or predictive maintenance). We show how classical reliability models (e.g., fault trees) can be used to quantify the system margin provided component margin values. In the approach described in this paper, the propagation of margin values through classical reliability models are not performed using classical probabilistic calculations applied to sets (as performed in a typical plant probabilistic risk assessment). Instead, we show how it is possible to propagate margin values through Boolean logic gates (i.e., AND and OR operators) through distance-based operations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Explaining System-Level Prognostics with Established Machine Learning Methods

System-level prognostics is crucial for ensuring reliability and enabling predictive maintenance in complex systems with interconnected components. This study presents a framework that integrates data-driven methods to predict the remaining useful life (RUL) of a subsystem under multiple and concurrent faults within a nuclear power plant system with explainable artificial intelligence (XAI). A nuclear power plant (NPP) operation was simulated to model the degradation behavior of NPP components, and four machine learning models—Gradient Boosting Regressor (GBR), Support Vector Regressor (SVR), Fully Connected Neural Network (FCNN), and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM)—were evaluated for prognostics with a novel system RUL parameter. The LSTM model demonstrated potential superior repeatability, while SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) for explainability provided consistent and trustworthy global explanations. In contrast, LIME (Local Interpretable Model-agnostic Explanations) offered localized interpretability but showed reduced stability for sequential data. Key findings include the interplay between component-level degradation and system-wide performance, with LSTM effectively capturing these dynamics through sequence-level predictions. The XAI techniques enhanced transparency by identifying critical features influencing model predictions and aligning with domain knowledge. Furthermore, this framework has significant implications for improving trust and understanding in predictive maintenance, particularly in safety-critical industries like nuclear energy.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Practical Comparison of Data-Driven Prognostics Methods for Energy Systems

This study explores data-driven prognostics for nuclear power plant (NPP) condensers, focusing on tube fouling. We utilized the Asherah nuclear power plant simulator (ANS) to compare four methods: Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Regressor (SVR), Fully Connected Neural Network (FCNN), and Long Short-Term Memory Neural Network (LSTM). By simulating various fouling scenarios in the ANS, we generated data with different degradation rates under transient operations. The models were trained and tested on these data, with performance evaluated visually and numerically including uncertainty assessment. The LSTM model excelled, exhibiting minimal prediction noise and the most accurate remaining useful life estimates across all degradation levels. Its ability to capture long-term dependencies and produce cleaner outputs makes it a strong candidate, although accurate training data across the entire component lifespan are crucial. The RF model emerged as a robust alternative, providing reliable predictions with high confidence. The FCNN and SVR models, while less effective overall, showed potential under specific conditions. FCNN offers a less complex alternative to LSTM and might benefit from larger datasets. SVR excels in precision when the quality of the training data is high. Furthermore, this study highlights the operational benefits of advanced prognostics in the energy sector and emphasizes the need for further research in NPP condenser health management through real-life experiments.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Wide-Bandgap Semiconductor Amplifiers for Fusion Plasma Heating and Control

This paper discusses power electronics developed under the ARPA-E GAMOW program to support nuclear fusion power production. The goal of this project was to develop and assess the potential for wide-bandgap (WBG) semiconductor devices in power electronics to enable high-efficiency and high-voltage solid-state systems for fusion plasma generation, heating, and control. The power electronics use an architecture in which multiple high-power boards can be combined to produce megawatt-level power, where using multiple boards provides high reliability. Two main areas of power electronics boards are developed in this project for fusion plasma heating and control applications: (1) pulse generation and control and (2) radiofrequency generation. The first area is for boards capable of driving high-voltage millisecond pulses at high duty cycles. The envisioned application of these pulses is in plasma control of magnetohydrodynamic instabilities, plasma position, and edge-localized modes. Pulse-width modulation allows for the implementation of a wide variety of linear and nonlinear control systems. The boards developed for this project could actuate control coils based on digital input signals and can be parallelized to provide megawatts of output power. The design of the pulse generator is a low-side load switch. A load switch was designed and constructed that utilized 2-kV-rated field-effect transistor (FET)-based cascodes developed by Qorvo under this project to perform initial testing of these cascodes. The second area is being implemented using class E amplifiers with WBG devices and a reactance steering network to handle inductive or capacitive plasma loads. Applications include ion cyclotron resonance heating (ICRH) and high-harmonic fast-wave (HHFW) heating. A class E reactance steering network is demonstrated in modeling and experiment with a resistive-inductive load that models an inductively-coupled plasma. Power combining of boards with class E reactance steering networks is also simulated and demonstrated experimentally, to enable scaling up to high power. Modeling of high-power-density cooling and remaining useful life is conducted to enable reliable, effectively cooled high-power electronics for fusion applications.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Testing of Instrumentation and Control Sensors and Cables for Small Modular Reactors

As advanced reactor concepts like small modular reactors (SMRs) progress towards design maturity and commercial deployment, it is important to assess their instrumentation and control (I&C) system sensors and cables to assure their safe, reliable, and efficient operation throughout their service lifetimes. The I&C system of any nuclear power plant (NPP) is the central nervous system of the plant and is made up of field devices such as sensors which are connected via cables to analog and/or digital systems. These systems are responsible for control and/or protection of the plant. The performance of I&C sensors and cables is dependent on several factors, including plant operating conditions. In particular, the plant operation can affect the static (accuracy) and dynamic (response) performance of the sensor, whereas the surrounding ambient environment can impact the remaining useful life of the cables, connectors, and other associated components within I&C sensor circuits.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2021

Novel Temperature Sensors and Wireless Telemetry for Active Condition Monitoring of Advanced Gas Turbines

The objective of the program is to develop and engine test hardware and software technologies that will enable active condition monitoring to be implemented on hot gas path turbine blades in large industrial gas turbines. The specific objectives are (1) to fabricate and install Smart Turbine Blades with thermally sprayed sensors and high temperature wireless telemetry systems in a gas turbine engine, (2) to integrate the component engine test data with remaining useful life (RUL) models and develop an approach for networking the component RUL data with Siemens' Power Diagnostics® engine monitoring system. These significant advances carried out in Phase 1 in temperature wide bandgap telemetry, along with new induced power driver and receiver geometry combined with an innovative approach to transmit digital data wirelessly will enable the opportunity to proceed with more technical innovation. The Phase 2 program focused on validation testing of sensor-wireless telemetry package in spin rig and advanced operation-based assessment (OBA) model utilizing artificial intelligence. Significant efforts were dedicated on the download of the technology onto components to be tested an actual gas turbine engine for full realization of active condition monitoring for Smart Turbine Blades.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Dose Rate Effects on Degradation of Nuclear Power Plant Electrical Cable Insulation at a Common Dose

The intent of this report is to address an identified knowledge gap in relating accelerated aging of nuclear electrical cables to service aging: dose rate effects (DRE). Here, DRE refer to gamma radiation-induced polymer degradation being a function of dose rate in addition to total absorbed dose. The concern raised is that historical qualification conducted at higher dose rates to simulate service lifetime may underestimate insulation degradation that occurs at lower dose rates in service. In the work described herein, common nuclear cable insulation materials—cross-linked polyethylene (XLPE) and ethylene propylene diene elastomer (EPDM)—were subjected to accelerated aging at ambient temperature (26°C) at different gamma dose rates of 100, 200 and 1800 Gy/h for select exposure durations to achieve constant total doses of 170, 210 and 300 kGy to evaluate DRE. First, the cable insulation material types investigated are described. Then, the accelerated aging experimental process involving gamma irradiation applied to the insulation specimens at room temperature and different dose rates is discussed. Then, the experimental characterization techniques used to perform this work are elucidated. These include elongation at break (EAB), mass change, yellowness index (YI), carbonyl index (CI), density, indenter modulus (IM), and relaxation constant (t). Theory of polymer degradation is discussed, and characterization results and discussion are provided. Finally, concluding remarks are made. The findings from this work and cited prior work reveal that DRE are material dependent, even between similar material categories (e.g., XLPE). In the case of the EPDM studied, degradation of ductility was observed to be greater at higher dose rate for the same total dose, indicating accelerated gamma aging to be more conservative than extended aging. Thus, conclusions regarding the conservatism of historical qualification likely require additional consideration for specific materials and conditions in question. The results of this study support the contention that, due to inherent limitations and uncertainties associated with prediction of cable remaining useful life from accelerated aging experiments, trending of installed cable insulation health status will be more practical and useful for safe and efficient cable aging management repair and replace decisions than lifetime prediction from historical qualification. The combination of material robustness demonstrated by the qualification process and ongoing monitoring of cable health status combine to provide confidence in continued safe use of existing nuclear cables. Additional research into effective and efficient condition monitoring methods for non-destructive evaluation of installed cables is needed to support aging cable management, including material studies to inform interpretation of measured results.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Field Validation of Dynamic Mechanical Torque Measurements for Geared Wind Turbines

Accurate knowledge of the mechanical loads of wind turbine gearboxes has become essential in modern, highly loaded gearbox designs, as maintaining or even improving gearbox reliability with increasing torque density demands is proving to be challenging. Unfortunately, the traditional method of measuring dynamic mechanical torque using strain gauges placed on the outer surface of a rotating shaft and transmitting the resulting signal is unsuitable for serial deployment due to technical and economic constraints. An alternative method based on fiber-optic strain sensors placed on the stationary outer surface of the gearbox ring gear has been proposed. Like shaft torsion, the radial deformation of the ring gear is proportionate to the rotor torque. Placing the sensors on a stationary component is a cost-effective alternative for serial implementation because the need for complex and expensive data transfer via wireless transmission or a slip ring is eliminated. In this paper, we present the results of an extensive field experiment conducted to evaluate the torque measurement accuracy of this novel sensing solution installed on the gearbox of a Gamesa G97 2-MW wind turbine at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Flatirons Campus. Torque measurements derived from fiber-optic strain sensors placed on the ring gear of the planetary stage are compared to conventional torque measurements from strain gauges placed on the main shaft. Two different torque estimation data processing methods were evaluated, with the method based on operational deflection shapes providing the most accurate results with an average normalized root mean square error below 0.7% for a load revolution distribution analysis. The effect of operating conditions on the torque estimate was also investigated, and the third planet-passing operational deflection shape was found to be the least sensitive to nontorque load-related effects. The fiber-optic strain sensors' successful operation during the complete test campaign has demonstrated a robust and accurate solution for fleet-wide enhanced gearbox remaining useful life estimation.

17 WIND ENERGY↗