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NASA NTRS2017

Chapter 15: Potential Surprises: Compound Extremes and Tipping Elements

The Earth system is made up of many components that interact in complex ways across a broad range of temporal and spatial scales. As a result of these interactions the behavior of the system cannot be predicted by looking at individual components in isolation. Negative feedbacks, or self-stabilizing cycles, within and between components of the Earth system can dampen changes (Ch. 2: Physical Drivers of Climate Change). However, their stabilizing effects render such feedbacks of less concern from a risk perspective than positive feedbacks, or self-reinforcing cycles. Positive feedbacks magnify both natural and anthropogenic changes. Some Earth system components, such as arctic sea ice and the polar ice sheets, may exhibit thresholds beyond which these self-reinforcing cycles can drive the component, or the entire system, into a radically different state. Although the probabilities of these state shifts may be difficult to assess, their consequences could be high, potentially exceeding anything anticipated by climate model projections for the coming century.

Kopp, R. E.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Stripline Block Sensor System

The Long Baseline Neutrino Facility requires a secondary sensor system to aid in the installation and replacement of the stripline blocks. These blocks are responsible for delivering large amounts of current to the horn and must be installed with high precision to avoid possible physical damage. There are many constraints due to the modules' surroundings, such as small clearances and a highly radioactive environment. Existing systems have already been implemented within the process; however, these systems offer limited information, leaving much risk during operations. This calls for a sufficiently accurate sensor system, which has a small space requirement and provides valuable information throughout the replacement period. A variety of methods and technologies were explored to provide an applicable approach to the issue. The proposed solution consisted of the use of retroreflective and target, however, it cannot provide positional feedback throughout the entire process. A proposed alternative utilizes a three-dimensional indoor positioning system to provide the operator with real-time positioning and rotational information. Sensors placed on the module and stripline would communicate with fixed receivers surrounding the target hall to provide precise positional feedback. However, this solution may still contain line-of-sight issues as well as installation complications due to the radioactive environment. Future work would consist of finding vendors capable of providing technology that fits our constraints, proof of concept tests for both solutions, implementation planning, and trials within the target hall itself. Due to its ability to provide continuous positional and rotational feedback, the indoor positioning system is the most suitable solution for accurately installing the stripline block.

Espinoza, David [Unlisted, US]↗

DOE OSTI2023

Assessing the Robustness of Arctic Sea Ice Bi‐Stability in the Presence of Atmospheric Feedbacks

Abstract Arctic sea‐ice loss is influenced by multiple positive feedbacks, sparking concerns of accelerated loss in the coming years or even a tipping point, where a sea‐ice equilibrium disappears at a given CO 2 value and sea ice rapidly evolves to a new steady state. Such a tipping point would imply a bi‐stability of the Arctic climate—where multiple steady‐state Arctic climates are possible at the same CO 2 value. Previous works have sought to establish the existence of bi‐stability using a range of models, from zero‐dimensional sea ice thermodynamic models to fully coupled global climate models, with conflicting results. Here, we present a new model of the Arctic that includes both sea‐ice thermodynamics and key atmospheric feedbacks in a simple framework. We exploit the model's simplicity to identify physical mechanisms that control the timing and extent of sea‐ice bi‐stability, and the abruptness of ice loss. We show that longwave radiation feedbacks can have a strong influence on Arctic surface climate from atmospheric temperature increases alone, even without major contributions from clear‐sky moisture or convective clouds suggested previously. While winter sea‐ice bi‐stability is robust to changes in uncertain model parameters in this study, summer sea ice is more sensitive. Finally, our model indicates that positive feedbacks may modulate the CO 2 threshold of sea‐ice loss and the width of bi‐stability much more strongly than the abruptness of loss. These results lead to a comprehensive understanding of the conditions that favor Arctic sea‐ice bi‐stability, particularly the role of atmospheric feedbacks, in both future and past climates.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2022

Free piston linear motor compressor and associated systems of operation

A linear motor compressor including a compressor housing and a cylinder housing having a plurality of opposing compression chambers. A piston freely reciprocates within the cylinder housing using a linear electric motor. A piston position feedback control system provides adaptive current output as a function of position feedback and/or velocity feedback from the piston and/or the electric motor, to directly power and control the electric motor, wherein the piston reciprocates without assistance from a mechanical spring or other equivalent centering force.

Stair, Jason↗

NASA NTRS2011

Projected Regime Shift in Arctic Cloud and Water Vapor Feedbacks

The Arctic climate is changing faster than any other large-scale region on Earth. A variety of positive feedback mechanisms are responsible for the amplification, most of which are linked with changes in snow and ice cover, surface temperature (T(sub s)), atmospheric water vapor (WV), and cloud properties. As greenhouse gases continue to accumulate in the atmosphere, air temperature and water vapor content also increase, leading to a warmer surface and ice loss, which further enhance evaporation and WV. Many details of these interrelated feedbacks are poorly understood, yet are essential for understanding the pace and regional variations in future Arctic change. We use a global climate model (Goddard Institute for Space Studies, Atmosphere-Ocean Model) to examine several components of these feedbacks, how they vary by season, and how they are projected to change through the 21st century. One positive feedback begins with an increase in T(sub s) that produces an increase in WV, which in turn increases the downward longwave flux (DLF) and T(sub s), leading to further evaporation. Another associates the expected increases in cloud cover and optical thickness with increasing DLF and T(sub s). We examine the sensitivities between DLF and other climate variables in these feedbacks and find that they are strongest in the non-summer seasons, leading to the largest amplification in Ts during these months. Later in the 21st century, however, DLF becomes less sensitive to changes in WV and cloud optical thickness, as they cause the atmosphere to emit longwave radiation more nearly as a black body. This regime shift in sensitivity implies that the amplified pace of Arctic change relative to the northern hemisphere could relax in the future.

Chen, Yonghua↗

NASA NTRS1997

Robot Position Sensor Fault Tolerance

Robot systems in critical applications, such as those in space and nuclear environments, must be able to operate during component failure to complete important tasks. One failure mode that has received little attention is the failure of joint position sensors. Current fault tolerant designs require the addition of directly redundant position sensors which can affect joint design. A new method is proposed that utilizes analytical redundancy to allow for continued operation during joint position sensor failure. Joint torque sensors are used with a virtual passive torque controller to make the robot joint stable without position feedback and improve position tracking performance in the presence of unknown link dynamics and end-effector loading. Two Cartesian accelerometer based methods are proposed to determine the position of the joint. The joint specific position determination method utilizes two triaxial accelerometers attached to the link driven by the joint with the failed position sensor. The joint specific method is not computationally complex and the position error is bounded. The system wide position determination method utilizes accelerometers distributed on different robot links and the end-effector to determine the position of sets of multiple joints. The system wide method requires fewer accelerometers than the joint specific method to make all joint position sensors fault tolerant but is more computationally complex and has lower convergence properties. Experiments were conducted on a laboratory manipulator. Both position determination methods were shown to track the actual position satisfactorily. A controller using the position determination methods and the virtual passive torque controller was able to servo the joints to a desired position during position sensor failure.

Aldridge, Hal A.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Technical note: Recommendations for diagnosing cloud feedbacks and rapid cloud adjustments using cloud radiative kernels

Abstract. The cloud radiative kernel method is a popular approach to quantify cloud feedbacks and rapid cloud adjustments to increased CO2 concentrations and to partition contributions from changes in cloud amount, altitude, and optical depth. However, because this method relies on cloud property histograms derived from passive satellite sensors or produced by passive satellite simulators in models, changes in obscuration of lower-level clouds by upper-level clouds can cause apparent low-cloud feedbacks and adjustments, even in the absence of changes in lower-level cloud properties. Here, we provide a methodology for properly diagnosing the impact of changing obscuration on cloud feedbacks and adjustments and quantify these effects across climate models. Averaged globally and across global climate models, properly accounting for obscuration leads to weaker positive feedbacks from lower-level clouds and stronger positive feedbacks from upper-level clouds while simultaneously removing a mostly artificial anti-correlation between them. Given that the methodology for diagnosing cloud feedbacks and adjustments using cloud radiative kernels has evolved over several papers, and obscuration effects have only occasionally been considered in recent papers, this paper serves to establish recommended best practices and to provide a corresponding code base for community use.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1987

Vibration suppression by stiffness control

The feasibility of using piezoelectric ceramics as both sensors and actuators for vibration suppression in a lightweight, flimsy structure was demonstrated. Multimode control was achieved using one sensor and actuator pair. The Positive Position Feedback control strategy requires only knowledge of the natural frequencies of the structure. Implementation of the Positive Position Feedback used only strain measurements to achieve damping, no velocities, or acceleration are needed. All spillover is stabilizing for sufficient small gains.

Fanson, James↗

NASA NTRS2012

Arctic Low Cloud Changes as Observed by MISR and CALIOP: Implication for the Enhanced Autumnal Warming and Sea Ice Loss

Retreat of Arctic sea ice extent has led to more evaporation over open water in summer and subsequent cloud changes in autumn. Studying recent satellite cloud data over the Arctic Ocean, we find that low (0.5-2 km) cloud cover in October has been increasing significantly during 2000-2010 over the Beaufort and East Siberian Sea (BESS). This change is consistent with the expected boundary-layer cloud response to the increasing Arctic evaporation accumulated during summer. Because low clouds have a net warming effect at the surface, October cloud increases may be responsible for the enhanced autumnal warming in surface air temperature, which effectively prolong the melt season and lead to a positive feedback to Arctic sea ice loss. Thus, the new satellite observations provide a critical support for the hypothesized positive feedback involving interactions between boundary-layer cloud, water vapor, temperature and sea ice in the Arctic Ocean.

Wu, Dong L.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Planetary-scale circulations in the presence of climatological and wave-induced heating

Interaction between the large-scale circulation and the convective pattern is investigated in a coupled system governed by the linearized primitive equations. Convection is represented in terms of two components of heating: A 'climatological component' is prescribed stochastically to represent convection that is maintained by fixed distributions of land and sea and sea surface temperature (SST). An 'induced component' is defined in terms of the column-integrated moisture flux convergence to represent convection that is produced through feedback with the circulation. Each component describes the envelope organizing mesoscale convective activity. As SST on the equator is increased, induced heating amplifies in the gravest zonal wavenumbers at eastward frequencies, where positive feedback offsets dissipation. Under barotropic stratification, a critical SST of 29.5 C results in positive feedback exactly cancelling dissipation in wavenumber 1 for an eastward phase speed of 6 m/s. Sympathetic interaction between the circulation and the induced heating is the basis for 'frictional wave-Conditional Instability of the Second Kind (CISK)', which is distinguished from classical wave-CISK by rendering the gravest zonal dimensions most unstable. Under baroclinic stratification, the coupled system exhibits similar behavior. The critical SST is only 26.5 C for conditions representative of equinox, but in excess of 30 C for conditions representative of solstice. Having the form of an unsteady Walker circulation, the disturbance produced by frictional wave-CISK compares favorably with the observed life cycle of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO). SST above the critical value produces an amplifying disturbance in which enhanced convection coincides with upper-tropospheric westerlies and is positively correlated with temperature and surface convergence. Conversely, SST below the critical value produces a decaying disturbance in which enhanced convection coincides with upper-tropospheric easterlies and is nearly in quadrature with temperature and surface convergence. While sharing essential features with the MJO in the Eastern Hemisphere, frictional wave-CISK does not explain observed behavior in the Western Hemisphere, where the convective signal is largely absent. Comprised of Kelvin structure with the same frequency, observed behavior in the Western Hemisphere can be understood as a propagating response that is excited in and radiates away from the fluctuation of convection in the Eastern Hemisphere.

Salby, Murry L↗

DOE OSTI2024

The Role of Cloud Radiative Effects in the Propagating Southern Annular Mode

Abstract The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is the most dominant natural mode of variability in the mid‐latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere (SH). However, both the sign and magnitude of the feedbacks from the diabatic processes, especially those associated with clouds, onto the SAM remain elusive. By applying the cloud locking technique to the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) atmosphere model, this study isolates the positive feedback from the cloud radiative effect (CRE) to the SAM. Feedback analysis based on a wave activity‐zonal momentum interaction framework corroborates this weak but positive feedback. While the magnitude of the CRE feedback appears to be secondary compared to the feedbacks from the dry and other diabatic processes, the indirect CRE effects through the interaction with other dynamical and thermodynamical processes appear to play as important a role as the direct CRE in the life cycle of the SAM. The cross‐EOF analysis further reveals the obstructive effect of the interactive CRE on the propagation mode of the SH zonal wind directly through the CRE wave source and/or indirectly through modulating other diabatic processes. As a result, the propagation mode becomes more persistent and the SAM it represents becomes more predictable when the interactive CRE is disabled by cloud locking. Future efforts on inter‐model comparisons of CRE‐denial experiments are important to build consensus on the dynamical feedback of CRE.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1984

Phase detector for three-phase power factor controller

A phase detector for the three phase power factor controller (PFC) is described. The phase detector for each phase includes an operational amplifier which senses the current phase angle for that phase by sensing the voltage across the phase thyristor. Common mode rejection is achieved by providing positive feedback between the input and output of the voltage sensing operational amplifier. this feedback preferably comprises a resistor connected between the output and input of the operational amplifier. The novelty of the invention resides in providing positive feedback such that switching of the operational amplifier is synchronized with switching of the voltage across the thyristor. The invention provides a solution to problems associated with high common mode voltage and enables use of lower cost components than would be required by other approaches.

Nola, F. J.↗

NASA NTRS1980

A numerical study of the effects of heat diffusion through the base of the mixed layer

In the present paper, a simple numerical model is used to study the warming of the mixed layer during the early summer. It is shown that the springtime temperature increase in the layer below the mixed layer (for example, in the cold pool on a continental shelf) has a maximum value which occurs for a limiting value of the surface heat flux. This is a result of the positive feedback at large Richardson numbers between stability and vertical diffusion of heat. The springtime temperature increase in the mixed layer increases nonlinearly with surface heat flux, because of the same positive feedback. The effects of interseasonal fluctuations of the surface heat flux on the spring and summer mixed layer and deeper temperature increases can be as great as the effect of interseasonal fluctuations of the average heat flux.

Posmentier, E. S.↗

DOE OSTI2024

The CMOS Pseudo-Thyristor: a zero-static current discriminator circuit

We report a very low power discriminator circuit for pixelized detectors, called the Pseudo-Thyristor is described in this document. It is a positive feedback topology using regular PMOS and NMOS field-effect transistors (FET's) with zero static current. When a small charge is injected into the circuit, it flips rapidly due to the positive feedback and outputs a logic transition for further digitization. Simulation shows that in a 65 nm process, it is possible to achieve a detecting threshold below 5 fC while maintain the average power consumption below 10 micro-Watts when the hit occupancy is <10% for 40 MHz operation.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Wide range of possible trajectories of North Atlantic climate in a warming world

Decadal variability in the North Atlantic Ocean impacts regional and global climate, yet changes in internal decadal variability under anthropogenic radiative forcing remain largely unexplored. Here we use the Community Earth System Model 2 Large Ensemble under historical and the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 3-7.0 future radiative forcing scenarios and show that the ensemble spread in northern North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) more than doubles during the mid-twenty-first century, highlighting an exceptionally wide range of possible climate states. Furthermore, there are strikingly distinct trajectories in these SSTs, arising from differences in the North Atlantic deep convection among ensemble members starting by 2030. We propose that these are stochastically triggered and subsequently amplified by positive feedbacks involving coupled ocean-atmosphere-sea ice interactions. Freshwater forcing associated with global warming seems necessary for activating these feedbacks, accentuating the impact of external forcing on internal variability. Further investigation on seven additional large ensembles affirms the robustness of our findings. By monitoring these mechanisms in real time and extending dynamical model predictions after positive feedbacks activate, we may achieve skillful long-lead North Atlantic decadal predictions that are effective for multiple decades.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

The Regenerative Current Mirror: A Very Low Power Front-End Amplifier for Silicon Pixel Detectors

In pixelized detectors, reducing power consumption in the front- end ASIC chips becomes a crucial demand. Optimization based on mature pre-amplifier schemes today is unlikely to bring sufficient improvements. A new CMOS front-end gain stage topology with very low power consumption called regenerative current mirror is developed to fulfill the demand. The circuit takes advantage of high-speed performance of current amplification while operating with relatively low bias current. The regenerative current mirror uses a NMOS current mirror and a PMOS current mirror, both with nominal gain of 1, to form a loop-back topology that provides a positive feedback. An NMOS FET with an external adjustable voltage applied to it gate terminal is used to limit open loop gain of the current mirrors to be slightly lower than 1. This yields a net gain of the positive feedback loop to be much larger than 1 while operating the current mirrors under relatively low bias currents. Simulation shows that in 65 nm fabrication process, the power consumption of the gain stages suitable for silicon pixel detectors can be controlled < 10 micro-Watts per channel. Another novel low-power circuit called Pseudo-Thyristor presented in another document will replace traditional discriminator and the Regenerative Current Mirror plus Pseudo- Thyristor will provide a full solution for the silicon pixel low-power frontend ASIC.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2023

The Regenerative Current Mirror: A Very Low Power Front-End Amplifier for Silicon Pixel Detectors

In pixelized detectors, reducing power consumption in the front end ASIC chips becomes a crucial demand. Optimization based on mature pre-amplifier schemes today is unlikely to bring sufficient improvements. A new CMOS front-end gain stage topology with very low power consumption called regenerative current mirror is developed to fulfill the demand. The circuit takes advantage of high speed performance of current amplification while operating with relatively low bias current. The regenerative current mirror uses a NMOS current mirror and a PMOS current mirror, both with nominal gain of 1, to form a loop-back topology that provides a positive feedback. An NMOS FET with an external adjustable voltage applied to it gate terminal is used to limit open loop gain of the current mirrors to be slightly lower than 1. This yields a net gain of the positive feedback loop to be much larger than 1 while operating the current mirrors under relatively low bias currents. Simulation shows that in 65 nm fabrication process, the power consumption of the gain stages suitable for silicon pixel detectors can be controlled < 10 micro-Watts per channel.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

NASA NTRS2007

Servomotor and Controller Having Large Dynamic Range

A recently developed micro-commanding rotational-position-control system offers advantages of less mechanical complexity, less susceptibility to mechanical resonances, less power demand, less bulk, less weight, and lower cost, relative to prior rotational-position-control systems based on stepping motors and gear drives. This system includes a digital-signal- processor (DSP)-based electronic controller, plus a shaft-angle resolver and a servomotor mounted on the same shaft. Heretofore, micro-stepping has usually been associated with stepping motors, but in this system, the servomotor is micro-commanded in response to rotational-position feedback from the shaft-angle resolver. The shaft-angle resolver is of a four-speed type chosen because it affords four times the resolution of a single-speed resolver. A key innovative aspect of this system is its position-feedback signal- conditioning circuits, which condition the resolver output signal for multiple ranges of rotational speed. In the preferred version of the system, two rotational- speed ranges are included, but any number of ranges could be added to expand the speed range or increase resolution in particular ranges. In the preferred version, the resolver output is conditioned with two resolver-to-digital converters (RDCs). One RDC is used for speeds from 0.00012 to 2.5 rpm; the other RDC is used for speeds of 2.5 to 6,000 rpm. For the lower speed range, the number of discrete steps of RDC output per revolution was set at 262,144 (4 quadrants at 16 bits per quadrant). For the higher speed range, the number of discrete steps per revolution was set at 4,096 (4 quadrants at 10 bits per quadrant).

Alhorn, Dean C.↗