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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Exploring the Effects of Population and Employment Characteristics on Truck Flows: An Analysis of NextGen NHTS Origin-Destination Data

Truck transportation remains the dominant mode of US freight transportation because of its advantages, such as the flexibility of accessing pickup and drop-off points and faster delivery. Because of the massive freight volume transported by trucks, understanding the effects of population and employment characteristics on truck flows is critical for better transportation planning and investment decisions. The US Federal Highway Administration published a truck travel origin-destination data set as part of the Next Generation National Household Travel Survey program. This data set contains the total number of truck trips in 2020 within and between 583 predefined zones encompassing metropolitan and nonmetropolitan statistical areas within each state and Washington, DC. In this study, origin-destination-level truck trip flow data was augmented to include zone-level population and employment characteristics from the US Census Bureau. Census population and County Business Patterns data were included. The final data set was used to train a machine learning algorithm-based model, Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), where the target variable is the number of total truck trips. Shapley Additive ExPlanation (SHAP) was adopted to explain the model results. Results showed that the distance between the zones was the most important variable and had a nonlinear relationship with truck flows.

Uddin, Majbah↗
DOE OSTI2023

Spatio-temporal and weather characterization of road loads of electrified heavy-duty commercial vehicles across U.S. interstate roads

Adoption of battery electric vehicles (BEV) in heavy duty (HD) commercial freight transportation is difficult due to technological and economic hurdles. Beyond safety and compliance, fleet and operational logistics necessitate both high uptime and parity with diesel system productivity/Total Cost of Ownership to support widespread deployment of electric powertrains. However, relatively high energy storage costs, along with the higher weight of BEV systems, limit the viability of HD commercial freight transport to shorter-range applications where smaller batteries will serve for mission energy requirements (single operational shift). Knowing the energy consumption and operating variations of these commercial vehicle systems is crucial for effectively sizing the energy storage systems. This paper is the first in a series of studies to understand the regional specific operating design domain variations of commercial Class 8 HD trucks and the associated impact to their energy requirements. In particular, the local weather conditions are shown to influence the total vehicle energy usage. Further, the impact of temperature, pressure, and humidity changes are shown to impact the local air density. This is needed to calculate aerodynamic drag on vehicles and has been found to play a significant role in the overall performance of a vehicle. Although the methodology of calculating air density varies only slightly throughout the literature, the application to transportation has still been limited. This study provides a means by which air density can be estimated for the contiguous U.S. using the NOAA MADIS dataset. These air density estimates were then used to determine vehicle performance in varying regions of the country to highlight the importance of consideration of weather variables when monitoring vehicle performance, but also to provide recommendations based on these locales upon fleet conversion to BEVs.

Moore, Amy↗
DOE OSTI2022

Achieving Diesel Powertrain Ownership Parity in Battery Electric Heavy Duty Commercial Vehicles Using a Rapid Recurrent Recharging Architecture

Battery electric vehicles (BEV) in heavy duty (HD) commercial freight transport face challenging technoeconomic barriers to adoption. Specifically, beyond safety and compliance, fleet and operational logistics require both high up-time and parity with diesel system productivity/Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) to enable strong adoption of electrified powertrains. At present, relatively high energy storage prices coupled with the increased weight of BEV systems limit the practicality of HD commercial freight transport to shorter range applications, where smaller batteries will suffice for the mission energy requirements (single operational shift). This paper presents an approach to extend the feasibility of BEV HD trucking for a broad range of applications. The concept is based on the leveraging rapid and recurrent recharging of a BEV HD truck that may either already make frequent stops due to shipment drop-offs/reloading or be required to make frequent stops along with longer missions for recharging. While the challenges of the latter are well appreciated, the concept proposed explores making minimal impact to overall mission time by targeting high C-rate charging while optimizing the frequency (miles) through which these events must occur. The concept optimizes battery size and chemistry, such that the expected life (years and total energy throughput) is balanced with the depth of discharge between recharging events, thus making complete use of the energy available through the life of the battery system. The solution is constrained to minimize the impact on payload capacity. The paper analyzes critical levers in achieving diesel price parity (based on a simplified vehicle TCO), achieved through different purchase options (including lease versus buy) and operational models (half-life swap out). Finally, the paper identifies the application design domain where these solutions are viable with limited impact on fleet operations.

Sujan, Vivek↗
DOE OSTI2026

Drive Cycles, Battery Pack Scaling, and Usage Considerations for Long-Haul and Regional-Haul Electric Trucks

Electrifying Class-8 heavy-duty trucks presents a promising opportunity to enhance energy efficiency and reduce freight transport costs. Battery electric trucks (BETs), once considered niche, are gaining traction due to advancements in battery technology and cost reductions. However, accurately predicting battery lifespan under realistic usage conditions remains a key challenge. Understanding battery failure mechanisms and their links to design, operation, and management is essential for developers and fleet operators. This study introduces a method to develop simplified, lab-testable dynamic stress test (DST) cycles for regional and long-haul Class-8 BETs, derived from real-world diesel truck usage. These DSTs enable benchmarking of battery technologies, identification of aging stressors, and optimization of battery design, life, and cost. The approach supports evaluation of key metrics such as levelized cost of driving and total cost of ownership, aiding fair comparisons and adoption decisions. We also propose feasible battery pack sizes that meet current driving demands with strategic charging, and a method to scale pack-level DSTs to cell-level cycles for lab-based testing. These tools facilitate tradeoff analysis across battery chemistries, pack sizing, and charging strategies, while offering means to get insights into battery aging under realistic conditions-ultimately supporting informed BET deployment decisions.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Electrified autonomous freight benefit analysis on fleet, infrastructure and grid leveraging Grid-Electrified Mobility (GEM) model

Fast-growing freight activities over the decades have become one of the major contributors to air pollution, leading to many efforts in freight decarbonization and electrification. However, the development of freight electrification is slow due to technological uncertainty, slow charging, high capital cost, etc. This paper analyzes the potential impact and benefit of heavy-duty vehicle (HDV) electrification and automation on fleet cost, infrastructure cost, the electricity grid, and environmental outcomes. In this work, we extended the vehicle electrification benefit analysis tool: Grid-Electrified Mobility (GEM) model, which had primarily been used to study light-duty passenger vehicles (LDVs), to analyze heavy-duty vehicle electrification. The extended model is derived for freight transportation electrification, and different freight electrification and automation adoption scenarios were analyzed. We find that the increased penetration of automated electric freight fleets within other types of electrified freight fleets from 1% to 99% will result in an overall cost reduction of 18.2%, fleet size reduction of 20.4%, and lower peak load reduction of 14.3%.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Assignment of Freight Traffic in a Large-scale Intermodal Network under Uncertainty

This paper presents a methodology for freight traffic assignment in a large-scale road-rail intermodal network under uncertainty. Network uncertainties caused by natural disasters have dramatically increased in recent years. Several of these disasters (e.g., Hurricane Sandy, Mississippi River Flooding, and Hurricane Harvey) severely disrupted the U.S. freight transportation network, and consequently, the supply chain. To account for these network uncertainties, a stochastic freight traffic assignment model is formulated. An algorithmic framework, involving the sample average approximation and gradient projection algorithm, is proposed to solve this challenging problem. The developed methodology is tested on the U.S. intermodal network with freight flow data from the Freight Analysis Framework. The experiments consider three types of natural disasters that have different risks and impacts on transportation networks: earthquakes, hurricanes, and floods. It is found that for all disaster scenarios, freight ton-miles are higher compared to the base case without uncertainty. The increase in freight ton-miles is the highest under the flooding scenario; this is because there are more states in the flood-risk areas, and they are scattered throughout the U.S.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

National Zero-Emission Freight Corridor Strategy

The United States has committed to decarbonizing freight transportation by advancing the deployment of commercial zero-emission medium- and heavy-duty vehicles (ZEMHDVs) and infrastructure. It is pursuing this goal by leveraging historic federal and private investments, policies, and partnerships. Through the U.S. National Blueprint for Transportation Decarbonization1 and the Global Memorandum of Understanding for Zero-Emission Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicles,2 the United States has committed to identifying viable pathways and implementation actions that promote at least 30% ZE-MHDV sales by 2030, with a goal of 100% by 2040. These actions, along with the investments laid out in the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law and Inflation Reduction Act, put the nation on a path to advancing transportation and infrastructure solutions that are better for freight movement, our communities, the environment, and the economy. Providing ubiquitous and convenient access to electric vehicle (EV) charging and hydrogen refueling along our nation’s freight corridors, and at truck depots within freight hubs, is key to successfully deploying ZE-MHDVs. Consistent with its charge in the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, 3 the Joint Office of Energy and Transportation (Joint Office), in collaboration with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Department of Transportation, and the Environmental Protection Agency, has developed the National Zero-Emission Freight Corridor Strategy (Strategy). The Strategy guides infrastructure deployment to meet growing market demands; catalyze public and private investment; and support utility and regulatory planning and action at local, state, and regional levels.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2020

LIGHT DUTY VEHICLE CHOICE MODELS EXAMINING ALTERNATIVE FUEL TECHNOLOGY PREFERENCES AMONG COMMERCIAL FLEET OWNERS

Agent-based transportation models are critical tool for evaluating energy use, emissions and mobility impacts of transportation. In this context, vehicle ownership models are critical for linking agent activities to their impacts on the transportation system. However, no agent-based freight transportation models to date has been developed that predicts the fuel technology that is preferred by establishments when purchasing a Light Duty Vehicle (LDV) for business purposes. This research addresses this gap by using recently collected survey data to estimate a discrete choice model that can be applied in the agent-based context.

commercial↗
DOE OSTI2024

An Action Plan for Rail Energy and Emissions Innovation

The Action Plan for Rail Energy and Emissions Innovation proposes actions to reduce and nearly eliminate emissions in the U.S. rail sector, in line with the U.S. economy-wide goal of net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050. It also proposes actions to leverage the rail system to reduce emissions from other modes. The national goal of achieving a zero-emission freight system by 2050 draws our attention to the fact that freight transport cannot be addressed simply mode by mode, but it should instead be treated as an interdependent system. This is especially true when pursuing decarbonization. This action plan presents how both rail transport and decarbonization intersect with our national transportation decarbonization blueprint, the decarbonization of the freight system, and national transmission goals. The intended audience of this report is the stakeholders who will advance rail decarbonization in a just and economical way by propelling the suite of actions listed here. This includes government at all levels, rail companies, locomotive manufacturers, labor unions, Amtrak, and more.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

W2VPCA: A Machine Learning Method for Measuring Attitudes With Natural Language

Company strategy influences many decisions in freight transportation. Behavioral models of company decision-making therefore could benefit from including strategy variables. However, strategy is difficult to observe and quantify. Attitudinal surveys of company executives can be used to collect measurements of latent strategy to use in quantitative models. However, surveys are costly and burdensome. Text mining methods to collect measurements overcome these issues somewhat, but typically require manual intervention and ignore the context of words, which can be problematic. This study introduces a new machine learning method to generate strategy measurement data from existing big text data. The new method, called W2VPCA, combines Natural Language Processing and Principal Components Analysis. W2VPCA produces measurement data that serve as quantitative indicators of latent strategy in behavioral models. W2VPCA is unsupervised, data-driven, and uses information on word context. We apply W2VPCA to generate measurements of latent strategies using readily available, large-scale text data: annual company reports. The empirical measurements are used successfully to associate two latent strategies, one focusing on distribution and the other on products, with truck fleet and distribution center outsourcing decisions. The main empirical outcome is that the W2VPCA measurements outperform Bag-of-Words measurements in a psychometric analysis of latent firm strategies. While this study focuses on freight behavioral models, W2VPCA may also have applications in behavioral modeling in other domains.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Port of New York and New Jersey Drayage Electrification Analysis

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) evaluated the potential for drayage electrification in the Port of New York and New Jersey (PoNYNJ), with a focus on operators: Harbor Freight Transport (HF), Safeway Trucking (SWT), and International Motor Freight Inc (IMF). This report summarizes the data collection and electrification evaluation of all three drayage operators, includes detailed operational data, and identifies the performance requirements for battery electric tractors (BETs) and corresponding infrastructure operated within the context of PoNYNJ drayage operation. This report also details a methodology to evaluate opportunities, strategies, and challenges associated with future expansions of BETs in meeting PANYNJ emissions goals. The Port Authority has established a goal of achieving Net Zero carbon emissions by 2050 across all facilities, including from tenant and stakeholder sources such as drayage trucks. NREL used real-world performance data collected on the three PoNYNJ drayage operations, along with modeling and analysis tools to compare BET to diesel trucks. From March to July 2021, NREL collected 1Hz vehicle and engine data from 46 drayage trucks at the three operators totaling nearly 121,000 miles of operation, providing enough information to assess vehicle operations for electrification potential. A Future Automotive Systems Technology Simulator (FASTSim) electric truck powertrain model was validated using PoNYNJ data and scenarios were run to evaluate drayage truck electrification requirements over the real-world cycles. The first scenario examined BET viability with minimal changes to existing operations. This assumes the trucks charge when stopped for two hours or longer, have a functional battery size of 375 kWh, and can charge at 270 kilowatts (kW) average which are the specification of the commercially available Freightliner eCascadia. The second scenario looked at what operational, charging infrastructure, and BET technology changes would be needed to fully electrify. Finally, detailed analysis was run on charging rate structure to understand operational costs to the fleets. The studied drayage trucks averaged 5.1 MPG, spent roughly 9% of their energy at idle, and drove an average of 140 miles per day with a maximum daily distance of 573 miles. The FASTSim model results indicate a comparable BET would use 417 kWh of energy per day on average accounting for cargo weight, which is close to the full usable capacity of the eCascadia currently available on the market. Based on the daily average operating data, partial fleet electrification is possible with current technology. However, some specific days of operation would require over 1,600 kWh of energy due to longer distances traveled by the trucks and more intense operation. Trucks used for long distance and intense operation cannot be readily electrified with current technology without operational changes. Full adoption of BETs could reduce CO 2 emissions from these fleets by roughly 75% today, eliminating 76 metric tons of CO 2 (MTCO 2 ) per vehicle each year, which equates to 24,100 MTCO 2 per year for all three operators. Commercially available direct current fast chargers (DCFC) have charge rates up to 350 kW. Based on the average daily modeled energy use for each operator, current industrial rate structures, and the assumption of 350 kW peak charging, full drayage electrification would increase electricity consumption. In addition, peak demand usage would increase with unmanaged charging along with cost of electricity having a direct impact on cost per mile for electric vehicles. The resulting cost per mile for BETs along with comparable cost per mile for conventional diesel trucks are also examined at $\$$4.00 per gallon of diesel. It will be important for PANYNJ and the drayage operators within the PoNYNJ to consider these load impacts to their existing electrical infrastructure and devise operational strategies that avoid coincident charging of vehicles to mitigate demand charges. Despite these electricity cost increases, savings from reductions in diesel consumption will help offset the costs of this increased electricity consumption. However, prices of both electricity and diesel are subject to change based on various factors meaning the realized savings will vary over time. This shows BETs could be cost-competitive on an energy cost per mile basis for all scenarios while diesel is above $\$$3.00/gal. Further, if diesel prices dropped to the 15-year low of $2.33/gal, it would still be cost competitive to operate the EVs with electricity costs of 16.3 ¢/kWh or less.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2023

New York Cross-Border Commodity Flow Disaggregation Modeling

The New York Cross-Border Transportation Regional Resiliency Assessment Program (RRAP) project characterized roadway-based trade and freight transportation between the United States and Canada along New York’s border crossings, with a particular focus on commodity flows and supply chains important to New York. The goal of better understanding, at a systems level, the flow of critical or important cross-border freight throughout the region was an important input in that study’s ultimate goal of assessing the importance of the state’s roadway transportation system to crossborder freight movement throughout the state. However, the intermediate analysis of cross-border freight flows, itself, resulted in insights that may be useful to better understanding the interplay between cross-border freight flows and local economies, communities, and the agencies, organizations, and supply chains that serve them.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Techno-Economic Analysis and Life Cycle Assessment of Alternative Fuels for Locomotives in the U.S. Freight Rail Sector

Freight rail is more energy-efficient than truck transport over long-haul distances, offering a low-energy and emissions-intensive option for transporting freight. This study evaluates techno-economic analysis and life cycle assessment of seven alternative unblended fuels for freight locomotive engines─biodiesel, renewable diesel (RD), bio-oils, methanol, dimethyl ether (DME), ethanol, and ammonia─across 16 fuel pathways utilizing soybean, corn, woody biomass, renewable hydrogen, and waste sources, e.g., sludge, manure, and industrial CO 2 , and compares these to conventional diesel. The minimum fuel selling price (MFSP) ranged from $\$2.05$ to $\$8.27$ per diesel gallon equivalent (2020 US dollars), with biocrude and RDs produced from hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) of sludge having the lowest MFSPs due to coproduct credits and avoided waste treatment cost. Life cycle GHG emissions ranged from −41 to 53 g of CO 2 e/MJ. RD from waste via HTL achieves negative emissions by diverting sludge/manure from GHG-intensive conventional management. Few pathways such as biocrude, methanol, and DME require additional control for SO X emissions in the refinery, while ethanol, FT-diesel, and bio-oil require additional control for particulate matter emissions. Bio-oil and RD from sludge have lower marginal abatement cost or MAC (–$\$38$/tonne CO 2 lowest) while methanol and ammonia with renewable hydrogen have higher MAC ($\$490$/tonne CO 2 maximum).

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
NASA NTRS1978

Phase 1: Definition of intercity transportation comparison framework. Volume 1: Summary

A unified framework for comparing intercity passenger and freight transportation systems is presented. Composite measures for cost, service/demand, energy, and environmental impact were determined. A set of 14 basic measures were articulated to form the foundation for computing the composite measures. A parameter dependency diagram, constructed to explicitly interrelate the composite and basic measures is discussed. Ground rules and methodology for developing the values of the basic measures are provided and the use of the framework with existing cost and service data is illustrated for various freight systems.

Source record↗
DOE OSTI2025

Feasibility and Compatibility of Alternative Fuels in the U.S. Rail Sector: Technoeconomic, Lifecycle, and Supply Chain Analysis

The U.S. rail sector is a cornerstone of the United States’ freight transportation system, responsible for moving approximately 40% of long-distance freight ton-miles each year (AAR, 2025). Freight demand is projected to grow over time (BTS, 2017) thereby necessitating the investigation of alternative fuels that can sustain operational efficiency while reducing emissions and cost impacts. At the same time, it is important to explore alternative fuels as new sources of energy that can increase energy security and resilience for this sector. This report investigates the feasibility and compatibility of seven alternative fuels in the U.S. rail sector, focusing on biofuels and fuels from other renewable energy sources. The study evaluates alternative fuel pathways, considering their technical, economic, and environmental aspects to provide stakeholders with a comprehensive understanding of potential solutions.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
NASA NTRS1922

Subsidies for air transport

This article discusses the need for government subsidies to encourage the development of passenger and freight transport by air.

Warner, Edward P↗
DOE OSTI2022

Technology Integration to Gain Commercial Efficiency for the Urban Goods Delivery System, Meet Future Demand for City Passenger and Delivery Load/Unload Spaces, and Reduce Energy Consumption

This three-year project supported by the U.S. Department of Energy Vehicle Technologies Office has the potential to radically improve the urban freight system in ways that help both the public and private sectors. Working from 2018-2021, project researchers at the University of Washington’s Urban Freight Lab and collaborators at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory have produced key data, tested technologies in complex urban settings, developed a prototype parking availability app, and helped close major knowledge gaps. All the fruits of this project can be harnessed to help cities better understand, support and actively manage truck load/unload operations and their urban freight transport infrastructure. Project learnings and tools can be used to help make goods delivery firms more efficient by reducing miles traveled and the time it takes to complete deliveries, benefitting businesses and residents who rely on the urban freight system for supplies of goods. And, ultimately, these project learnings and tools can be used to make cities more livable by minimizing wasted travel, which, in turn, contributes to reductions in fuel consumption and emissions. Cities today are challenged to effectively and efficiently manage their infrastructure to absorb the impacts of ever-increasing e-commerce-fueled delivery demand. All delivery trucks need to park somewhere to unload and load. Yet today’s delivery drivers have no visibility on available parking until they arrive at a site, which may be full. That means they can wind up cruising for parking, which wastes time and fuel and contributes to congestion. Once drivers do find parking, the faster they can unload at the spot, the faster they free up space for other drivers, helping others avoid circling for parking. This makes the parking space—and thus the greater load/unload network—more productive. To this end, the research team successfully met the project’s three goals, developing and piloting strategies and technologies to: 1. Reduce parking-seeking behavior in the study area by 20%; 2. Reduce parcel truck dwell time (the time a truck spends in a spot to load/unload) in the study area by 30%; 3. Increase curb space, alley space and private loading bay occupancy rates in the study area. The research team met these goals by creating and piloting on Seattle streets OpenPark, a first-of-its-kind real-time and forecasting curb parking app customized for commercial delivery drivers—giving drivers the “missing link” in their commonly used routing tools that tell them how best to get to delivery locations, but not what parking is available to use when they get there. Installing in-ground sensors on commercial vehicle load zones (CVLZs) and passenger load zones (PLZs) in the 10-block study area in Seattle’s downtown neighbourhood of Belltown let researchers glean real-time curb parking data. The research team also met project goals by piloting three parcel lockers in public and private spaces open to any delivery carrier, creating a consolidated delivery hub that lets drivers complete deliveries faster and spend less time parked. Researchers collected and analysed data to produce the first empirical, robust, statistically significant results as to the impact of the lockers, and app, on on-the-ground operations. In addition to collecting and analyzing sensor and other real-time and historical data, researchers rode along with delivery drivers to confirm real-world routing and parking behavior. Researchers also surveyed building managers on their private loading bay operations to understand how to boost usage.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Emerging Trends in Freight [Slides]

Freight transportation accounts for only 5% of the vehicles on U.S. roads, but 10% of vehicle miles of travel and 27% of on-road energy use. With rail and water, freight accounts for 28% of U.S. transportation energy and emissions. Trucking is the primary mode for transporting goods, but rail is a significant mode for longer shipments. Economic, technological, and operational trends pose both challenges and opportunities to meet U.S. demand for goods movement as well as national decarbonization goals. This presentation provides a systems perspective for energy efficiency freight mobility and an overview of available NREL analytical tools to address these challenges.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗