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A Comprehensive Approach to Measure the Efficiency of Freight Transport: Freight Mobility Energy Productivity (F-MEP) Metric

Freight travel accounts for a major share of the energy consumed in the transportation sector in any country, and the United States is no exception. Understanding and modeling freight movement is critical, particularly in the context of capturing the impact of emerging technologies on freight travel and its externalities. The domain of freight modeling and forecasting is gaining pace in the recent years, but advancement in comprehensive freight performance metrics is still lagging. Conventional freight performance metrics such as truck-miles, ton-miles, or value-miles are unidimensional and aggregated in nature, making them unsuitable to accurately capture the impact of emerging transportation trends on the performance of freight systems. Addressing this research need, this paper presents the 'Freight Mobility Energy Productivity' metric to quantify freight performance of current as well as future freight systems, accounting for various costs associated with freight transport. The proposed metric was implemented using data from the Freight Analysis Framework along with other published sources, which shows intuitive results in quantifying freight performance. Further, a scenario analysis exercise was conducted to test the capability of the metric in tracking improvements in system-level freight efficiency as a result of vehicle powertrain technology improvement. Results of the scenario analysis reinforce confidence that the proposed metric can be used as a decision support tool in assessing the efficiency of existing as well as future freight trends and technologies.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Comprehensive Approach to Measure the Mobility Energy Productivity of Freight Transport

Freight travel accounts for a major share of the energy consumed in the transportation sector in any country, and the United States is no exception. Understanding and modeling freight movement are critical, particularly in the context of capturing the impact of emerging technologies on freight travel and its externalities. The domain of freight modeling and forecasting has been gaining pace in recent years, but advancement in comprehensive freight performance metrics is still lagging. Conventional freight performance metrics such as truck-miles, ton-miles, or value-miles are unidimensional and aggregate in nature, making them unsuitable to accurately capture the impact of emerging transportation trends on the performance or productivity of freight systems. Addressing the research need, this paper presents the “Freight Mobility Energy Productivity” metric to quantify freight productivity of current as well as future freight systems, accounting for various costs associated with freight transport. The proposed metric was implemented using data from the Freight Analysis Framework along with other published sources, and shows intuitive results in quantifying freight productivity. Further, a scenario analysis exercise was conducted to test the capability of the metric in tracking improvements in system-level freight productivity as a result of vehicle electrification. The relative differences in Freight Mobility Energy Productivity scores help identify which zones benefit from the vehicle powertrain technology improvement. The results of the scenario analysis reinforce confidence that the proposed metric can be used as a decision support tool in assessing the productivity of existing as well as future freight trends and technologies.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Machine learning for international freight transportation management: A comprehensive review

Machine learning (ML) offers a promising avenue for international freight transportation management (IFTM) given its capability to harness the power of data that have become increasingly available to freight transportation researchers and practitioners. This paper conducts a comprehensive investigation of the state-of-the-art in developing ML models for applications to different aspects of IFTM. We start by giving an overview of various fundamental ML methods. Then, how different ML methods have been employed, adapted, and applied to a multitude of subject areas in IFTM are discussed, including demand forecast, operation and asset maintenance, and vehicle trajectory and on-time performance prediction. The potential data sources that may be used to develop ML models are further examined. Subsequently, a synthesis of the exiting work is performed to identify the specific topics addressed in the existing research, ML methods used, the trends of research, and opportunities for further explorations. Four directions for future research are proposed in the end.

Data sources↗

Uncertainty quantification and reliability assessment for intermodal freight transportation

Intermodal freight optimization models support cost-effective, low-emission, and timely goods movement by coordinating trucks, rail, and barges. These models determine optimal flows, routing, and modal switches while respecting infrastructure and operational constraints. However, their real-world utility is often undermined by pervasive uncertainties-such as fluctuating transportation costs and emissions, variable terminal capacities, and uncertain freight demand-that distort key performance outcomes, including total system cost, carbon footprint, and transit time reliability. This study presents a structured framework for quantifying uncertainty in intermodal freight transportation (IFT) optimization. The framework evaluates how input uncertainty affects system performance and reliability, a critical need for ensuring that model-based decisions remain robust under real-world variability, especially amid volatile fuel prices, shifting demand, and growing disruptions. It integrates three complementary methods: (1) Sobol-based global sensitivity analysis to identify influential parameters affecting cost, emissions, and transit time, (2) Monte Carlo-based capacity perturbation analysis to assess robustness under probabilistic facility disruptions, and (3) Monte Carlo filtering with Bayesian inference to detect threshold-based performance vulnerabilities. The results highlight diesel truck unit cost as the dominant driver of variability. To improve system resilience, planners should prioritize uncertainty in fuel-related parameters when designing intermodal strategies.

Intermodal freight transportation↗

A Comprehensive Approach to Measure the Mobility Energy Productivity of Freight Transport: Preprint

Freight travel accounts for a major share of the energy consumed in the transportation sector in any country, and the United States is no exception. Understanding and modeling freight movement are critical, particularly in the context of capturing the impact of emerging technologies on freight travel and its externalities. The domain of freight modeling and forecasting is gaining pace in the recent years, but advancement in comprehensive freight performance metrics is still lagging. Conventional freight performance metrics such as truck-miles, ton-miles, or value-miles are unidimensional and aggregate in nature, making them unsuitable to accurately capture the impact of emerging transportation trends on the performance or productivity of freight systems. Addressing the research need, this paper presents the “Freight Mobility Energy Productivity” metric to quantify freight productivity of current as well as future freight systems, accounting for various costs associated with freight transport. The proposed metric was implemented using data from the Freight Analysis Framework along with other published sources, which shows intuitive results in quantifying freight productivity. Further, a scenario analysis exercise was conducted to test the capability of the metric in tracking improvements in system-level freight productivity as a result of vehicle electrification. The relative differences in Freight Mobility Energy Productivity scores help identify which zones benefit from the vehicle powertrain technology improvement. The results of the scenario analysis reinforce confidence that the proposed metric can be used as a decision support tool in assessing the productivity of existing as well as future freight trends and technologies.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Data analytics for intermodal freight transportation applications

With the growth of intermodal freight transportation, it is important that transportation planners and decision-makers are knowledgeable about freight flow data to make informed decisions. This is particularly true with Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) offering new capabilities for intermodal freight transportation. Specifically, ITS enables access to multiple different data sources, but they have different formats, resolutions, and time scales. Thus, knowledge of data science is essential to be successful in future ITS-enabled intermodal freight transportation systems. This chapter discusses the commonly used descriptive and predictive data analytic techniques in intermodal freight transportation applications. These techniques cover the entire spectrum of univariate, bivariate, and multivariate analyses. In addition to illustrating how to apply these techniques manually, this chapter will also show how to apply them using the statistical software R. Additional exercises are provided for those who wish to apply the described techniques to more complex problems.

Huynh, Nathan↗

Advanced cargo aircraft may offer a potential renaissance in freight transportation

The increasing demand for air freight transportation has prompted studies of large, aerodynamically efficient cargo-optimized aircraft capable of carrying intermodal containers, which are typically 8 x 8 x 20 ft. Studies have accordingly been conducted within NASA to ascertain the specifications and projected operating costs of such a vehicle, as well as to identify critical, development-pacing technologies. Attention is here given not only to the rather conventional, 10-turbofan engined configuration thus arrived at, but numerous innovative configurations featuring such concepts as spanloading, removable cargo pods, and ground effect.

Morris, Shelby J.↗

Towards Next-Generation Urban Decision Support Systems through AI-Powered Construction of Scientific Ontology Using Large Language Models—A Case in Optimizing Intermodal Freight Transportation

The incorporation of Artificial Intelligence (AI) models into various optimization systems is on the rise. However, addressing complex urban and environmental management challenges often demands deep expertise in domain science and informatics. This expertise is essential for deriving data and simulation-driven insights that support informed decision-making. In this context, we investigate the potential of leveraging the pre-trained Large Language Models (LLMs) to create knowledge representations for supporting operations research. By adopting ChatGPT-4 API as the reasoning core, we outline an applied workflow that encompasses natural language processing, Methontology-based prompt tuning, and Generative Pre-trained Transformer (GPT), to automate the construction of scenario-based ontologies using existing research articles and technical manuals of urban datasets and simulations. From these ontologies, knowledge graphs can be derived using widely adopted formats and protocols, guiding various tasks towards data-informed decision support. The performance of our methodology is evaluated through a comparative analysis that contrasts our AI-generated ontology with the widely recognized pizza ontology, commonly used in tutorials for popular ontology software. We conclude with a real-world case study on optimizing the complex system of multi-modal freight transportation. Our approach advances urban decision support systems by enhancing data and metadata modeling, improving data integration and simulation coupling, and guiding the development of decision support strategies and essential software components.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

Design study to simulate the development of a commercial freight transportation system

The Notre Dame Aerospace Engineering senior class was divided into six design teams. A request for proposals (RFP) asking for the design of a remotely piloted vehicle (RPV) was given to the class, and each design team was responsible for designing, developing, producing, and presenting an RPV concept. The RFP called for the design of commercial freight transport RPV. The RFP provided a description of a fictitious world called 'Aeroworld'. Aeroworld's characteristics were scaled to provide the same types of challenges for RPV design that the real world market provides for the design of commercial aircraft. Fuel efficiency, range and payload capabilities, production and maintenance costs, and profitability are a few of the challenges that were addressed in this course. Each design team completed their project over the course of a semester by designing and flight testing a prototype, freight-carrying remotely piloted vehicle.

Batill, Stephen M.↗

Estimating the Rebound Effect of the U.S. Road Freight Transport

The United States (U.S.) road freight sector has continued to grow over recent decades. Growth in road freight could result in more fuel consumption and hence increased greenhouse gas emissions. Policymakers have attempted to manage the growth of energy usage through improved fuel economy based on technological advances. However, such improvements may not lead to anticipated goals because of the rebound effect, where improvements in energy efficiency trigger more travel and energy consumption that offsets energy savings. Thus, this study aims to determine the potential rebound effect from improved energy efficiency in the U.S. road freight sector. Eight fuel cost models are applied and asymmetric price response is incorporated in estimating the U.S. road freight sector’s rebound effect from 1980 to 2016. In addition, a recently developed data envelopment analysis is applied to determine the annual rebound effect in the road freight sector. The results suggest that, after accounting for the asymmetric price response, the average rebound effect of the U.S. road freight sector ranges from 6.9% to 8.8%, a level considerably less than that found for several industrialized countries and emerging economies. However, a considerable increase in the rebound effect has been seen in more recent years. Here, the findings suggest that overlooking the rebound effect in environmental policies could impede the goal of reducing total energy consumption and accompanying emissions. Policymakers should incorporate the rebound effect from efficiency enhancement in policy development and utilize some potential programs to reduce the adverse influence of rebound effect in related policies.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

From Vehicles to Systems: Understanding Freight Transportation as a Connected Energy, Infrastructure, and Operations System

The U.S. freight system may need to handle 50% more cargo by 2050. Upgrading our freight system requires modernizing capital-intensive, long-lived assets including freight trains, ports, and terminal infrastructure. NLR is advancing freight system solutions spanning ALTRIOS, the first digital twin for the full freight rail system; ALTRIOS-LIFTS, which can create digital twins of freight terminals; INFORMES, the first national model of the intermodal freight system; MARINESim, used to simulate and optimize ocean-going vessel operations; and more. These modeling and simulation tools enable data-driven decision-making across freight modes and systems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Connected and Learning Based Optimal Freight Management for Efficiency

The management of the future heterogenous fleet is a complex decision-making problem. The heterogenous fleet is emerging as decarbonization technologies are deployed by fleets toward lowering the freight operation emissions in Medium and Heavy-duty vehicles. Traditionally, in fleets characterized by a homogeneous Diesel Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) powertrain, the process of fleet planning and operational optimization unfolds sequentially without the necessity to account for powertrain and vehicle-specific characteristics during dispatch decisions. Fleets with trucks less than 5 years old tend to maintain stable vehicle efficiency with minimal operational reliability risks for fleet managers. However, the landscape changes with the incorporation of emerging powertrain technologies, which lack extensive operational data and service experiences. This includes technologies like hybrid, Electric, Fuel Cell, or alternative fuel ICE. Operational decisions for fleets featuring heterogeneous powertrain technologies and facing limited access to alternative fueling and charging stations become intricate, requiring careful consideration and optimization at each dispatch. The difference in efficiency characteristics of emerging technologies, their range limitations, and the restricted availability of charging/alternative fueling infrastructure, coupled with sensitivity to driving conditions (e.g., EV range reduction in low temperatures) and their impact on component aging (such as batteries), become pivotal factors influencing the reliable and efficient freight transportation. To make the path toward low emission freight transportation efficient and reliable, an AI-assisted fleet management software is developed in this project to help fleet managers in optimizing both adoption of emerging powertrain decarbonization, connected and automated technologies and also operating the fleet after such technologies are deployed as schematically. Freight transportation requirements are different depending on the cargos to be shipped, customer requirements and regions of operations. This further highlights the need for software and digital solutions to tailor deployment and operation of emerging powertrain, connectivity, and automation technologies toward the specific fleet operation requirements. The fleet management optimizer was also integrated with a model of the fleet to simulate the operation of the fleet over 1 year of the baseline fleet operation (250,000+ shipments) indicating the significance of day-to-day variations on emissions and energy consumption of a freight transportation fleet. The results demonstrate ≥20% improvement in freight efficiency in terms of WTW CO2 per ton-mile of cargo shipments while all fleet operation constraints are enforced, and the cost (CapEx and OpEx) is minimized.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Optimizing Hydrogen Fueling Infrastructure Plans on Freight Corridors for Heavy-Duty Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles

The development of a future hydrogen energy economy will require the development of several hydrogen market and industry segments including a hydrogen-based commercial freight transportation ecosystem. For a sustainable freight transportation ecosystem, the supporting fueling infrastructure and the associated vehicle powertrains making use of hydrogen fuel will need to be co-established. This article introduces the OR-AGENT (Optimal Regional Architecture Generation for Electrified National Transportation) tool developed at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, which has been used to optimize the hydrogen refueling infrastructure requirements on the I-75 corridor for heavy-duty (HD) fuel cell electric commercial vehicles (FCEV). This constraint-based optimization model considers existing fueling locations, regional-specific vehicle fuel economy and weight, vehicle origin and destination (O-D), and vehicle volume by class and infrastructure costs to characterize in-mission refueling requirements for a given freight corridor. The authors applied this framework to determine the ideal public access locations for hydrogen refueling (constrained by existing fueling stations), the minimal viable cost to deploy sufficient hydrogen fuel dispensers, and associated equipment, to accommodate a growing population of hydrogen fuel cell trucks. The framework discussed in this article can be expanded and applied to a larger interstate system, expanded regional corridor, or other transportation network. This article is the third in a series of papers that defined the model development to optimize a national hydrogen refueling infrastructure ecosystem for HD commercial vehicles.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Optimizing Long Term Hydrogen Fueling Infrastructure Plans on Freight Corridors for Heavy Duty Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles

The development of a future hydrogen energy economy will require the development of several hydrogen market and industry segments including a hydrogen based commercial freight transportation ecosystem. For a sustainable freight transportation ecosystem, the supporting fueling infrastructure and the associated vehicle powertrains making use of hydrogen fuel will need to be co-established. This paper develops a long-term plan for refueling infrastructure deployment using the OR-AGENT (Optimal Regional Architecture Generation for Electrified National Transportation) tool developed at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, which has been used to optimize the hydrogen refueling infrastructure requirements on the I-75 corridor for heavy duty (HD) fuel cell electric commercial vehicles (FCEV). This constraint-based optimization model considers existing fueling locations, regional specific vehicle fuel economy and weight, vehicle origin and destination (OD), vehicle volume by class and infrastructure costs to characterize in-mission refueling requirements for a given freight corridor. The authors applied this framework to determine the ideal long term public access locations for hydrogen refueling (constrained by existing fueling stations and dispensing technology), the minimal viable cost to deploy sufficient hydrogen fuel dispensers, and associated equipment, to accommodate a growing population of hydrogen fuel cell trucks. So the framework discussed in this paper can be expanded and applied to additional electrified powertrains as well as a larger interstate system, expanded regional corridor, or other transportation networks.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Model for Collaboration among Carriers to Reduce Empty Container Truck Trips

In recent years, intermodal transport has become an increasingly attractive alternative to freight shippers. However, the current intermodal freight transport is not as efficient as it could be. Oftentimes an empty container needs to be transported from the empty container depot to the shipper, and conversely, an empty container needs to be transported from the receiver to the empty container depot. These empty container movements decrease the freight carrier’s profit, as well as increase traffic congestion, decrease roadway safety, and add unnecessary emissions to the environment. To this end, our study evaluates a potential collaboration strategy to be used by carriers for domestic intermodal freight transport based on an optimization approach to reduce the number of empty container trips. A binary integer-linear programming model is developed to determine each freight carrier’s optimal schedule while minimizing its operating cost. The model ensures that the cost for each carrier with collaboration is less than or equal to its cost without collaboration. It also ensures that average savings from the collaboration are shared equally among all participating carriers. Additionally, two stochastic models are provided to account for uncertainty in truck travel times. The proposed collaboration strategy is tested using empirical data and is demonstrated to be effective in meeting all of the shipment constraints.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Investigating Resiliency of Transportation Network under Targeted and Potential Climate Change Disruptions

Ensuring robustness and resilience in intermodal transportation systems is essential for the continuity and reliability of global logistics. These systems are vulnerable to various disruptions, including natural disasters and technical failures. Despite significant research on freight transportation resilience, investigating the robustness of the system after targeted and climate-change-driven disruption remains a crucial challenge. Drawing on network science methodologies, this study models the interdependencies within the rail and water transport networks and simulates different disruption scenarios to evaluate system responses. Here, we use the data from the U.S. Department of Energy Volpe Center for network topology and tonnage projections. The proposed framework quantifies deliberate, stochastic, and climate-driven infrastructure failure, using higher resolution downscaled multiple Earth System Models’ simulations from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase version 6. We show that the disruptions of a few nodes could have a larger impact on the total tonnage of freight transport than on network topology. For example, the removal of targeted 20 nodes can bring the total tonnage carrying capacity to 30% with about 75% of the rail freight network intact. This research advances the theoretical understanding of transportation resilience and provides practical applications for infrastructure managers and policymakers. By implementing these strategies, stakeholders and policymakers can better prepare for and respond to unexpected disruptions, ensuring sustained operational efficiency in transportation networks.

Climate Change Disruptions↗

An approach to market analysis for lighter than air transportation of freight

An approach is presented to marketing analysis for lighter than air vehicles in a commercial freight market. After a discussion of key characteristics of supply and demand factors, a three-phase approach to marketing analysis is described. The existing transportation systems are quantitatively defined and possible roles for lighter than air vehicles within this framework are postulated. The marketing analysis views the situation from the perspective of both the shipper and the carrier. A demand for freight service is assumed and the resulting supply characteristics are determined. Then, these supply characteristics are used to establish the demand for competing modes. The process is then iterated to arrive at the market solution.

Roberts, P. O.↗