Variability of sonic boom signatures with emphasis on the extremities of the ground exposure patterns
Sonic boom pressure signature variations as function of distance to ground due to atmospheric refraction
Harvey H. Hubbard↗
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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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The HZE radiation problem
Radiation-exposure limits have yet to be established for missions envisioned in the framework of the Space Exploration Initiative. The radiation threat outside the earth's magnetosphere encompasses protons from solar particle events and the highly charged energetic particles constituting galactic cosmic rays; radiation biology entails careful consideration of the extremely nonuniform patterns of such particles' energy deposition. The ability to project such biological consequences of exposure to energetic particles as carcinogenicity currently involves great uncertainties from: (1) different regions of space; (2) the effects of spacecraft structures; and (3) the dose-effect relationships of single traversals of energetic particles.
Schimmerling, Walter↗
Effects on post-glacial rebound from the hard rheology in the transition zone
The effect of an increase of viscosity in the earth-mantle's transition zone between 420 and 670 km on the geophysical signatures induced by postglacial rebound was analyzed using a self-gravitating model consisting of an elastic lithosphere, a three-layer viscoelastic mantle, and an inviscid core. Results show that the horizontal displacements and velocities as well as the stress pattern are extremely sensitive to the viscosity increase and to the chemical stratification of the transition zone. The findings indicate that geodetic data on intraplate deformation can be used to put constraints on the viscosity increase in the transition zone and on the amount of chemical stratification in the mantle.
Spada, Giorgio↗
Isentropic mixing in the Arctic stratosphere during the 1992-1993 and 1993-1994 winters
Dynamic isolation of the winter Arctic circumpolar vortex during 1992-1993 and 1993-1994 (the second and third northern hemisphere winters of the UARS mission) is studied using quasi-horizontal isentropic trajectories. Ejection of vortex air and entrainment of mid-latitude air into the vortex are quantified and compared with climatological values obtained from the analysis of 16 Arctic winters. A number of unusual features of both winters are discussed. The most notable features are the anomalous isolation experienced by the vortex during December 1992 and the unusual degree of isolation and persistence of the vortex during February and March of both years. the 1992-1993 winter season is the most consistently isolated vortex on record. Only during January 1993, when entrainment is large, is this pattern of extreme isolation broken.
Dahlberg, Steven P.↗
High Resolution Spectroscopy of Vega-like Stars: Abundances and Circumstellar Gas
Vega-like stars are main-sequence stars exhibiting excess infrared emission. In an effort to improve the information available on this class of star, 13 stars have been analyzed which have been classed as Vega-like, or have an infra-red excess attributable to dust in their circumstellar environment. In a separate paper stellar properties such as effective temperature and log g have been derived and in this poster we highlight the results of the photospheric abundance analysis also carried out during this work. King recently drew attention to the possible link between Vega-like stars and the photospheric metal-depleted class of A-stars, the Lambda Bootis stars. Since Vega-like stars are thought to have disks of dust, it might be expected that accretion of depleted gas onto the surface of these stars may cause this same phenomenon. In the 6 stars studied for depletions, none showed the extreme underabundance patterns observed in Lambda Bootis stars. However, depletions of silicon and magnesium were found in two of the sample, suggesting that these elements are in silicate dust grains in the circumstellar environment of these stars. Absorption lines attributed to circumstellar gas have been positively identified in three stars in our sample. Individual cases show evidence either of high-velocity outflowing gas, variability in the circumstellar lines observed, or evidence of circumstellar gas in excited lines of Fe II. No previous identification of circumstellar material has been made for two of the stars in question.
Dunkin, S. K.↗
Detecting a Terrestrial Biosphere Sink for Carbon Dioxide: Interannual Ecosystem Modeling for the Mid-1980s
There is considerable uncertainty as to whether interannual variability in climate and terrestrial ecosystem production is sufficient to explain observed variation in atmospheric carbon content over the past 20-30 years. In this paper, we investigated the response of net CO2 exchange in terrestrial ecosystems to interannual climate variability (1983 to 1988) using global satellite observations as drivers for the NASA-CASA (Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach) simulation model. This computer model of net ecosystem production (NEP) is calibrated for interannual simulations driven by monthly satellite vegetation index data (NDVI) from the NOAA Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) at 1 degree spatial resolution. Major results from NASA-CASA simulations suggest that from 1985 to 1988, the northern middle-latitude zone (between 30 and 60 degrees N) was the principal region driving progressive annual increases in global net primary production (NPP; i.e., the terrestrial biosphere sink for carbon). The average annual increase in NPP over this predominantly northern forest zone was on the order of +0.4 Pg (10 (exp 15) g) C per year. This increase resulted mainly from notable expansion of the growing season for plant carbon fixation toward the zonal latitude extremes, a pattern uniquely demonstrated in our regional visualization results. A net biosphere source flux of CO2 in 1983-1984, coinciding with an El Nino event, was followed by a major recovery of global NEP in 1985 which lasted through 1987 as a net carbon sink of between 0.4 and 2.6 Avg C per year. Analysis of model controls on NPP and soil heterotrophic CO2 fluxes (Rh) suggests that regional warming in northern forests can enhance ecosystem production significantly. In seasonally dry tropical zones, periodic drought and temperature drying effects may carry over with at least a two-year lag time to adversely impact ecosystem production. These yearly patterns in our model-predicted NEP are consistent in magnitude with the estimated exchange of CO2 by the terrestrial biosphere with the atmosphere, as determined by previous isotopic (delta (sup 13 C) convolution analysis. Ecosystem simulation results can help further target locations where net carbon sink fluxes have occurred in the past or may be verified in subsequent field studies.
Potter, Christopher S.↗
Satellites as Sentinels for Climate and Health
Remotely-sensed data and observations are providing powerful new tools for addressing climate and environment-related human health problems through increased capabilities for monitoring, risk mapping, and surveillance of parameters useful to such problems as vector- borne and infectious diseases, air and water quality,. harmful algal blooms, W radiation, contaminant and pathogen transport in air and water, and thermal stress. Remote sensing, geographic information systems (GIs), global positioning systems (GPS), improved computation capabilities, and interdisciplinary research between the Earth and health science communities, together with local knowledge, are being combined in rich collaborative efforts resulting in more rapid problem-solving, early warning, and prevention in global climate and health issues. These collaborative efforts are enabling increased understanding of the relationships among changes in temperature, rainfall, wind, soil moisture, solar radiation, vegetation, and the patterns of extreme weather events and health issues. This increased understanding and improved information and data sharing, in turn, empowers local health and environmental decision-makers to better predict climate-related health problems, decrease vulnerability, take preventive measures, and improve response actions. This paper provides a number of recent examples of how satellites - from their unique vantage point in space - can serve as sentinels for climate and health.
Maynard, Nancy G.↗
Modulation Collimator Fine Grids for HESP
The proposed High Engergy-Solar Physics (HESP) million will require fine, precise, high aspect ratio modulation collimators for the High Energy Imagin Spectrometer (HEISPEC). The fabrication approach described here rests on the proven precision of semiconductor lithography - the ability to replicate extremely accurate patterns onto different planar substrateds.
LIGA HESP pitch structures solar x-rays gamma rays↗
The Global Fire Atlas of Individual Fire Size, Duration, Speed and Direction
Natural and human-ignited fires affect all major biomes, altering ecosystem structure, biogeochemical cycles and atmospheric composition. Satellite observations provide global data on spatiotemporal patterns of biomass burning and evidence for the rapid changes in global fire activity in response to land management and climate. Satellite imagery also provides detailed information on the daily or sub-daily position of fires that can be used to understand the dynamics of individual fires. The Global Fire Atlas is a new global dataset that tracks the dynamics of individual fires to determine the timing and location of ignitions, fire size and duration, and daily expansion, fire line length, speed, and direction of spread. Here, we present the underlying methodology and Global Fire Atlas results for 2003–2016 derived from daily moderate-resolution (500 m) Collection 6 MCD64A1 burned-area data. The algorithm identified 13.3 million individual fires over the study period, and estimated fire perimeters were in good agreement with independent data for the continental United States. A small number of large fires dominated sparsely populated arid and boreal ecosystems, while burned area in agricultural and other human-dominated landscapes was driven by high ignition densities that resulted in numerous smaller fires. Long-duration fires in boreal regions and natural landscapes in the humid tropics suggest that fire season length exerts a strong control on fire size and total burned area in these areas. In arid ecosystems with low fuel densities, high fire spread rates resulted in large, short-duration fires that quickly consumed available fuels. Importantly, multiday fires contributed the majority of burned area in all biomass burning regions. A first analysis of the largest, longest and fastest fires that occurred around the world revealed coherent regional patterns of extreme fires driven by large-scale climate forcing. Global Fire Atlas data are publicly available through http://www.globalfiredata.org (last access: 9 August 2018) and https://doi.org/10.3334/ORNLDAAC/1642, and individual fire information and summary data products provide new information for benchmarking fire models within ecosystem and Earth system models, understanding vegetation–fire feedbacks, improving global emissions estimates, and characterizing the changing role of fire in the Earth system.
global fire atlas↗
Design Choices in Anomaly Detection for Industrial Control Systems: Insights from Gas Pipeline Data
Industrial control systems (ICS) remain vulnerable to increasingly sophisticated cyberattacks, yet evaluating anomaly detection models in these environments is challenging due to temporal dependencies, missing-not-at-random patterns, and extremely imbalanced datasets. These factors make common practices—especially random data splits and naïve imputation—prone to severe temporal leakage, which can inflate reported performance and obscure real-world limitations. In this work, we systematically examine classical machine learning models, temporal deep learning architecture, and tensor-decomposition–based methods on a gas-pipeline dataset using a fully temporally separated evaluation pipeline designed to mimic realistic deployment conditions. Our findings show that proper temporal handling and MNAR-aware preprocessing significantly alter the relative performance of popular anomaly-detection methods, providing practical guidance for designing reliable, leakage-resistant ICS intrusion-detection systems.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Electrodynamic patterns in the polar region during periods of extreme magnetic quiescence
Using data from the DE 2 satellite, the electrodynamic patterns in the polar region during periods of extreme magnetic and auroral quiescence are analyzed for the existence of region-1 and region-2 field-aligned current systems, convection patterns, and electron-precipitation boundaries. The large-scale region-1 and region-2 currents were found to be usually absent during quiet periods, except in the cusp region. Field-aligned currents continue to be present, but as small-scale structures distributed through the auroral oval and over the entire polar cap. Convection patterns were always found in the summer hemisphere, but not always in the winter hemisphere, while structured electron precipitation was found to extend over the entire polar region independent of season.
Hoffman, R. A.↗
Performance evaluation of CMIP6 models on the Arctic-Siberian Plain teleconnection affecting the East Asian heat waves
The frequency and intensity of summer heat waves in East Asia have increased sharply in recent decades, significantly impacting public health and the economy. The Arctic-Siberian Plain (ASP) teleconnection pattern has been identified as a key driver, with ASP warming amplifying atmospheric circulation patterns conducive to extreme temperatures. This study evaluates the ability of Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 6 models to simulate the ASP pattern across interannual variability (IAV) and intra-seasonal variability (ISV) timescales using the Common Basis Function method. The multi-model mean shows statistically significant pattern correlations with ERA5 reanalysis, with correlation coefficients of 0.90 and 0.99 for IAV and ISV, respectively. While the ASP pattern is generally well captured, models exhibit substantial inter-model diversity in the intensity and position of anticyclonic anomalies over the ASP and East Asia. Models with ASP pattern variability similar to reanalysis better reproduce extreme East Asian temperatures, whereas those over- or underestimating ASP variability exhibit lower skill. These performance differences are related to differences in simulating key variables associated with the development of the ASP pattern. Our findings highlight the role of the ASP pattern in modulating extreme heat events, as models with improved ASP simulations align more closely with observed temperature extremes. Refining ASP representations in models could enhance seasonal heat wave predictions, improving climate adaptation strategies.
Arctic-Siberian Plain (ASP)↗
High latitude equivalent current systems during extremely quiet times
The magnetic perturbation patterns in the polar cap and auroral zone regions are obtained for extremely quiet days using two different techniques. It is shown that the form of the equivalent current flow pattern is extremely sensitive to the level of quietness, and that even so-called quiet days are at times disturbed by substorm activity. Certain characteristic equivalent flow not typically observed during substorms is noted in the polar cap, and this flow appears to be associated with effects of polar cap perturbations discussed by Svalgaard (1973). A region of equatorward flow at high latitudes near the dawn meridian, appears to be Hall current driven by an eastward electric field. The dayside sub-auroral zone is dominated by the Sq-current system, while the nightside shows no significant current flow in the absence of substorm activity.
Rostoker, G.↗
Trends in Europe Storm Surge Extremes Match the Rate of Sea-level Rise
Coastal communities across the world are already feeling the disastrous impacts of climate change through variations in extreme sea levels1. These variations reflect the combined effect of sea-level rise and changes in storm surge activity. Understanding the relative importance of these two factors in altering the likelihood of extreme events is crucial to the success of coastal adaptation measures. Existing analyses of tide gauge records agree that sea-level rise has been a considerable driver of trends in sea-level extremes since at least 1960. However, the contribution from changes in storminess remains unclear, owing to the difficulty of inferring this contribution from sparse data and the consequent inconclusive results that have accumulated in the literature. Here we analyse tide gauge observations using spatial Bayesian methods to show that, contrary to current thought, trends in surge extremes and sea-level rise both made comparable contributions to the overall change in extreme sea levels in Europe since 1960 . We determine that the trend pattern of surge extremes reflects the contributions from a dominant north–south dipole associated with internal climate variability and a single-sign positive pattern related to anthropogenic forcing. Our results demonstrate that both external and internal influences can considerably affect the likelihood of surge extremes over periods as long as 60 years, suggesting that the current coastal planning practice of assuming stationary surge extremes might be inadequate.
Francisco M Calafat↗
Investigating Wintertime GPM-IMERG Precipitation in the North Atlantic
Precipitation is expected to increase in a warming climate, which can have profound impacts on local and global hydrologic budgets. However, the precipitation in high latitudes remains highly uncertain. We compare wintertime precipitation in the North Atlantic using GPM-IMERG, GPCP, MERRA-2 and ERA5 between 2000–2019 and show that while interannual variations between products are similar, large differences in magnitudes exist, specifically in areas of higher precipitation where Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) produces an excess of 2 mm day−1. EOF analysis demonstrates observations and reanalyses show similar spatial variability in the most dominant precipitation patterns and are highly correlated (r = −0.6) with the North Atlantic Oscillation. Analysis of IMERG extreme precipitation further shows that it is most densely populated in this same area where large discrepancies in magnitudes between products exist. IMERG extreme precipitation was found to drive the monthly anomalies. Future work needs to be focused on extreme precipitation characteristics, patterns and the driving atmospheric factors.
Linette Boisvert↗
North American Extreme Temperature Events and Related Large Scale Meteorological Patterns: A Review of Statistical Methods, Dynamics, Modeling, and Trends
The objective of this paper is to review statistical methods, dynamics, modeling efforts, and trends related to temperature extremes, with a focus upon extreme events of short duration that affect parts of North America. These events are associated with large scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs). The statistics, dynamics, and modeling sections of this paper are written to be autonomous and so can be read separately. Methods to define extreme events statistics and to identify and connect LSMPs to extreme temperature events are presented. Recent advances in statistical techniques connect LSMPs to extreme temperatures through appropriately defined covariates that supplement more straightforward analyses. Various LSMPs, ranging from synoptic to planetary scale structures, are associated with extreme temperature events. Current knowledge about the synoptics and the dynamical mechanisms leading to the associated LSMPs is incomplete. Systematic studies of: the physics of LSMP life cycles, comprehensive model assessment of LSMP-extreme temperature event linkages, and LSMP properties are needed. Generally, climate models capture observed properties of heat waves and cold air outbreaks with some fidelity. However they overestimate warm wave frequency and underestimate cold air outbreak frequency, and underestimate the collective influence of low-frequency modes on temperature extremes. Modeling studies have identified the impact of large-scale circulation anomalies and landatmosphere interactions on changes in extreme temperatures. However, few studies have examined changes in LSMPs to more specifically understand the role of LSMPs on past and future extreme temperature changes. Even though LSMPs are resolvable by global and regional climate models, they are not necessarily well simulated. The paper concludes with unresolved issues and research questions.
Cold Spells↗
Data-Driven Clustering and Classification of Outage Patterns with Insights into their Links to Extreme Events
At a global level extreme events have increased in both scale and impact. These events have the potential to affect the electrical grid infrastructure and cause a wide range of outages, which can lead to a disruption in daily patterns, cost millions of dollars and also the loss of life. Currently, to track these outage events there have been various approaches developed ranging from regional to national level quantifications for what defines an outage. However, this variation in methods can potentially lead to subjective decision-making and a lack of proper management in relation to the event. While previous work has made strides in determining spatio-temporal patterns, minimal attention has been given to the type and number of outages an area may be exposed to. The differences in incurred cost and the overall severity of an event between a transformer box malfunction and a hurricane are drastic, and by finding historical signals, we can allow for more efficient management, potentially saving lives and millions of dollars. Here, we leverage unsupervised machine learning techniques to delineate outage patterns among 22 counties within the United States and find that there are clear, segregated clusters (0.93 silhouette) of data which are related by event behavior and underlying cause. This finding will allow for energy stakeholders, policy makers, and researchers to gain a deeper understanding of the extent and severity of historic events and to better prepare for electrical grid infrastructure planning and management.
Koob, Benjamin [ORNL]↗
Extreme Weather Events and Their Relationship to Low Frequency Teleconnection Patterns
A new method for identifying the structure and other characteristics of extreme weather events is introduced and applied to both model simulations and observations. The approach is based on a linear regression model that links daily extreme precipitation amounts for a particular point on the globe to precipitation and related quantities at all other points. We present here some initial results of our analysis of extreme precipitation events over the United States, including how they are influenced by ENSO and various large-scale teleconnection patterns such as the PNA. The results are based on simulations made with the NASA/NCAR AGCM (Lin and Rood 1996). The quality of the simulated climate for the NASA/NCAR AGCM forced with observed SSTs is described in Chang et al. (2001). The runs analyzed here consist of three 20-year runs forced with idealized cold, neutral and warm ENSO SST anomalies (superimposed on the mean seasonal cycle of SST). The idealized warm or cold SST anomalies are fixed throughout each 20- year simulation and consist of the first EOF (+/- 3 standard deviations) of monthly SST data. Comparisons are made with the results obtained from a similar analysis that uses daily NOAA precipitation observations (Higgins et al. 1996) over the United States and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data for the period 1949-1998.
Chang, Yehui↗