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At least 19 records

Indices of extremes: geographic patterns of change in extremes and associated vegetation impacts under climate intervention

Extreme weather events have been demonstrated to be increasing in frequency and intensity across the globe and are anticipated to increase further with projected changes in climate. Solar climate intervention strategies, specifically stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI), have the potential to minimize some of the impacts of a changing climate while more robust reductions in greenhouse gas emissions take effect. However, to date little attention has been paid to the possible responses of extreme weather and climate events under climate intervention scenarios. We present an analysis of 16 extreme surface temperature and precipitation indices, as well as associated vegetation responses, applied to the Geoengineering Large Ensemble (GLENS). GLENS is an ensemble of simulations performed with the Community Earth System Model (CESM1) wherein SAI is simulated to offset the warming produced by a high-emission scenario throughout the 21st century, maintaining surface temperatures at 2020 levels. GLENS is generally successful at maintaining global mean temperature near 2020 levels; however, it does not completely offset some of the projected warming in northern latitudes. Some regions are also projected to cool substantially in comparison to the present day, with the greatest decreases in daytime temperatures. The differential warming–cooling also translates to fewer very hot days but more very hot nights during the summer and fewer very cold days or nights compared to the current day. Extreme precipitation patterns, for the most part, are projected to reduce in intensity in areas that are wet in the current climate and increase in intensity in dry areas. We also find that the distribution of daily precipitation becomes more consistent with more days with light rain and fewer very intense events than currently occur. In many regions there is a reduction in the persistence of long dry and wet spells compared to present day. However, asymmetry in the night and day temperatures, together with changes in cloud cover and vegetative responses, could exacerbate drying in regions that are already sensitive to drought. Overall, our results suggest that while SAI may ameliorate some of the extreme weather hazards produced by global warming, it would also present some significant differences in the distribution of climate extremes compared to the present day.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

High-resolution chemical patterns from negative tone resists for the integration of extreme ultraviolet patterns of metal-oxide resists with directed self-assembly of block copolymers

Extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography faces significant challenges in designing suitable resist materials that can provide adequate precision, while maintaining economically viable throughput. These challenges in resist materials have led to printing failures and high roughness in EUV patterns, compromising the performance of semiconductor devices. Integrating directed self-assembly (DSA) of block copolymers (BCPs) with EUV lithography offers a promising solution because, while the BCPs register to the EUV-defined chemical guiding pattern, the thermodynamically determined structures of the BCPs automatically rectify defects and roughness in the EUV pattern. Despite the superior resolution of metal-oxide EUV resists (MORs), their application to DSA is limited by the difficulty in converting them into chemical patterns that allow effective transfer of the rectified patterns of DSA films into inorganic materials. To address this challenge, this study introduces a novel strategy for fabricating chemical patterns using hydrogen silsesquioxane (HSQ), a high-resolution negative tone inorganic resist, as a model system for MORs. Initially, a sacrificial Cr pattern is generated from HSQ patterns via reactive ion etching. The sacrificial Cr pattern is converted into a chemical pattern by first grafting a water-soluble polyethylene oxide brush onto the substrate, then wet etching the Cr, and finally grafting nonpolar polystyrene brushes. Assembling polystyrene-block-poly(methyl methacrylate) on these patterns results in structures oriented and registered with the underlying pattern, achieving 24 nm full-pitch resolutions. In conclusion, this approach has the potential to integrate MOR patterns into the DSA process, thereby enabling the generation of high-quality sub-10 nm patterns with high-χ BCPs.

Atomic force microscopy↗

Seasonal and Geographical Variations in Fundamental Weather Patterns during Extreme Precipitation as Identified from Omega Equation Forcing

Abstract We investigate the large-scale weather patterns during extreme precipitation (PEx) events over the conterminous United States (CONUS) by applying a version of the quasigeostrophic (QG) omega equation. This work aims to develop a climatology of the weather patterns most related to PEx events during current climate. Extreme events are examined for each of seven regions defined by consistent annual cycles of precipitation and spanning the CONUS. For the CONUS we train several self-organizing maps (SOM) on a pressure–time series of vertical velocity from each of the advective forcing terms in the QG omega equation for each extreme event. The unsupervised learning of the SOM allows us to identify the most descriptive set of nine patterns in vertical velocity associated with precipitation extremes. This method finds multiple frontal- and cyclone-driven patterns while grouping primarily convective events into one pattern. Frontal events include a synoptic pattern consistent with West Coast atmospheric river events as well as pattern groups linked to developing and to mature (“occluded”) frontal cyclones. The primary patterns found during PEx events vary seasonally and geographically. Frontal cyclone patterns are most common during PEx events during summer in the part of the Great Plains and during winter for the Northeast, Southeast, Pacific Northwest, and Southwest. Convection is the most common pattern during summer in all regions. Except in the Southeast, the annual cycles of monthly number of PEx events and average precipitation match well, partially validating our choice of regions to aggregate PEx events.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Review of metal-containing resists in electron beam lithography: perspectives for extreme ultraviolet patterning

Background: Metal-containing resists entered the mainstream semiconductor industry process flow to mitigate the low absorbance of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) radiation by thin films of organic resists that lead to poor sensitivity and their inability to handle rigors of development and etching conditions. Aim: The long and rich history of using metal-containing resists in electron beam lithography can offer interesting lessons, pointers, and insights to the relatively newcomer EUV lithography, which is slightly over a decade old. Approach: Electron beam lithography has been enjoying a considerable amount of freedom in the choice of resist materials for close to 50 years; especially the use of metal-containing resists to attain not only single digit nanometer resolution, higher sensitivity, and etch resistance but also lower line-edge roughness. Here, we make a comprehensive historical review of the progress made in the patterning of metal-containing resists in electron beam lithography and derive insights that can be potentially useful in EUV patterning. Perspectives: Small molecular weight resists are proven to be crucial for achieving higher resolution with low line-edge roughness. Simplifying process flow by reducing etch-stack-layers is conceivable with metal-containing resists, along with direct-patterning of functional materials for heterogeneous integration. Efficient contact hole patterning at tighter pitches may be incumbent on progress in positive-tone resist research.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗

Recurrent pattern of extreme fire weather in California

Abstract Historical wildfire events in California have shown a tendency to occur every five to seven years with a rapidly increasing tendency in recent decades. This oscillation is evident in multiple historical climate records, some more than a century long, and appears to be continuing. Analysis shows that this 5–7 year oscillation is linked to a sequence of anomalous large-scale climate patterns with an eastward propagation in both the ocean and atmosphere. While warmer temperature emerges from the northern central Pacific to the west coast of California, La Niña pattern develops simultaneously, implying that the lifecycle of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation that takes multiple years to form could be a trigger. The evolving patterns of the Pacific-to-North America atmospheric teleconnection suggest the role of tropical and subtropical forcing embedded in this lifecycle. These results highlight the semi-cyclical hydrological behavior as a climate driver for wildfire variability in California.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

The Effect of Manipulating Subject Mass on Lower Extremity Torque Patterns During Locomotion

During locomotion, humans adapt their motor patterns to maintain coordination despite changing conditions (Reisman et al., 2005). Bernstein (1967) proposed that in addition to the present state of a given joint, other factors, including limb inertia and velocity, must be taken into account to allow proper motion to occur. During locomotion with added mass counterbalanced using vertical suspension to maintain body weight, vertical ground reaction forces (GRF's) increase during walking but decrease during running, suggesting that adaptation may be velocity-specific (De Witt et al., 2006). It is not known, however, how lower extremity joint torques adapt to changes in inertial forces. The purpose of this investigation was to examine the effects of increasing body mass while maintaining body weight upon lower-limb joint torque during walking and running. We hypothesized that adaptations in joint torque patterns would occur with the addition of body mass.

DeWitt, John K.↗

Viral but not bacterial community successional patterns reflect extreme turnover shortly after rewetting dry soils

As central members of soil trophic networks, viruses have the potential to drive substantial microbial mortality and nutrient turnover. Pinpointing viral contributions to terrestrial ecosystem processes remains a challenge, as temporal dynamics are difficult to unravel in the spatially and physicochemically heterogeneous soil environment. In Mediterranean grasslands, the first rainfall after seasonal drought provides an ecosystem reset, triggering microbial activity during a tractable window for capturing short-term dynamics. In this report we simulated precipitation in microcosms from four distinct dry grassland soils and generated 144 viromes, 84 metagenomes and 84 16S ribosomal RNA gene amplicon datasets to characterize viral, prokaryotic and relic DNA dynamics over 10 days. Vastly different viral communities in each soil followed remarkably similar successional trajectories. Wet-up triggered a significant increase in viral richness, followed by extensive compositional turnover. Temporal succession in prokaryotic communities was much less pronounced, perhaps suggesting differences in the scales of activity captured by viromes (representing recently produced, ephemeral viral particles) and total DNA. Still, differences in the relative abundances of Actinobacteria (enriched in dry soils) and Proteobacteria (enriched in wetted soils) matched those of their predicted phages, indicating viral predation of dominant bacterial taxa. Rewetting also rapidly depleted relic DNA, which subsequently reaccumulated, indicating substantial new microbial mortality in the days after wet-up, particularly of the taxa putatively under phage predation. Production of abundant, diverse viral particles via microbial host cell lysis appears to be a conserved feature of the early response to soil rewetting, and results suggest the potential for ‘Cull-the-Winner’ dynamics, whereby viruses infect and cull but do not decimate dominant host populations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Generative AI for Wind-Wave Inflows

Extreme wind-wave conditions can create dangerous or damaging environmental conditions for sea-based structures and watercrafts. However, the model of consistent, coupled wind-wave flow conditions is computational expensive, even for simple flow scenarios. This work examines the use of diffusion-based generative artificial intelligence tools to accelerate the generation of these two-phase flows and to characterize probabilities of various states to help with the generation of extreme patterns.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Recent Accelerated Decadal Shift in Winter North American Temperature Patterns Under Pacific‐Atlantic Decadal Variability

Global warming and internal climate variability have changed winter temperature extreme regimes in North America, affecting droughts and wildfires in the western United States. However, how internal climate variability influences North American winter temperature extreme patterns remains poorly understood. Here, we demonstrate that the recent winter North American surface air temperature (SAT) exhibits an accelerated decadal alternation between Warm West-Cold East (WWCE) and Cold West-Warm East (CWWE) dipoles because their variations show shorter decadal periods during 1990–2022 than during 1950–1989 and are regulated by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) variability. While the winter WWCE dipole mainly linked to North Pacific blocking events exhibited a smaller mean amplitude during 1990–2022 than 1950–1989 due to the weakened positive PDO phase during 1990–2022 under the positive phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the winter CWWE showed a larger mean amplitude during 1990–2022 due to the stronger negative PDO phase than during 1950–1989. Our results further suggest that the recent rapid decadal shift of North American winter temperatures is primarily attributed to the PDO variability likely due to anthropogenic warming under the positive AMO.

Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation↗

Evaluation of Extreme Soil Moisture Patterns over the Sahel during the 2020 Growing Season

The African Sahel is an ecologically and climatically sensitive region, and thus is a valuable test case for examination of climate extremes. Above-average rainfall during the 2020 growing season (June-October) led to flooding in the West, Central and East Sahel, with implications for infrastructure, agriculture and disease outbreaks. In this study, we evaluate soil moisture patterns in the region during 2020 to assess and quantify the extremeness of the event. The primary tool is the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) Level 4 surface soil moisture data. Daily, monthly, and seasonal anomalies are computed relative to SMAP’s long-term mean (2015-2021). Additional comparisons are made with longer-time-series data sets, including surface soil moisture from NASA’s Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2(MERRA-2; 1981-present) and precipitation from the African Rainfall Climatology, Version 2 (ARC2; 1983-present).Possible drivers of the extreme wet event are examined, including potential links to the concurrent 2020-21 La Niña event. Finally, we explore the connections between the extreme soil moisture and vector-borne disease outbreaks in the region in2020, namely, Rift Valley Fever in Mauritania and Chikungunya in Chad.

Soil Moisture↗

Large‐Scale Statistically Meaningful Patterns (LSMPs) Associated With Precipitation Extremes Over Northern California

Abstract We analyze large‐scale statistically meaningful patterns (LSMPs) that precede extreme precipitation (PEx) events over Northern California (NorCal). We find LSMPs by applying k‐means clustering to the two leading principal components of daily 500 hPa geopotential height anomalies two days before the onset, from October to March during 1948–2015. Statistical significance testing based on Monte Carlo simulations suggests a minimum of four statistically distinguished LSMP clusters. The four LSMP clusters are characterized as Northwest continental negative height anomaly, Eastward positive “Pacific‐North American Pattern (PNA),” Westward negative “PNA,” and Prominent Alaskan ridge. These four clusters, shown in multiple variables, evolve very differently and have differing links to the Arctic and tropical Pacific regions. Using binary forecast skill measures and a new copula‐based framework for predicting PEx events, we find LSMP indices that are useful predictors of NorCal PEx events, with moisture‐based variables being the best predictors of PEx events at least 6 days before the onset, and the lower atmospheric variables being better than their upper atmospheric counterparts any day in advance tested. To ensure statistical rigor, the LSMPs analyzed here (with the modified acronym) include local tests of both significance and consistency, which are not always featured in the literature on large‐scale meteorological patterns.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Initial Stage of Nanoscale Imaging in Positive Tone Extreme UV Photoresists: The Influence of the Polymer Sequence

Photolithographic patterning using extreme ultraviolet (EUV, 92.5 eV) light is a radiolytic process that initially forms electrons, radical cations, anions, and neutral radicals in the polymeric photoresist matrix. These species may participate in the chemical reactions that define the ultimate resolution of the printed image, and their concentrations and nanometer-scale stochastic variations in their formation influence printed image quality. Proposals have been made that polymer chain uniformity may be advantageous in reducing stochastics due to spatial inhomogeneities, and this aspect of radiolysis is examined in this work. We have simulated the initial subpicosecond stages of the imaging process for a series of photoresist films that are identical in composition but vary in their polymer chain structures. We use detailed, physically accurate stochastic reaction-diffusion calculations to evaluate the influence of defined sequence and random copolymer structures on radiolytic spur formation, i.e., a cluster of species formed by electron-polymer interactions that defines the initial spatial characteristic of the imaging process. Predictions of electron thermalization in the present work are shown to be consistent with the literature, indicating that our overall computational approach for ultrafast nanoscale processes is sound. The computational results show that the polymer sequence has no significant effect on the spur composition. This suggests that any potential imaging improvements to be gained by sequence control must originate from postimaging lithographic process steps.

Absorption↗

Satellites as Shared Resources for Caribbean Climate and Health Studies

Remotely-sensed data and observations are providing powerful new tools for addressing climate and environment-related human health problems through increased capabilities for monitoring, risk mapping, and surveillance of parameters useful to such problems as vector-borne and infectious diseases, air and water quality, harmful algal blooms, UV (ultraviolet) radiation, contaminant and pathogen transport in air and water, and thermal stress. Remote sensing, geographic information systems (GIS), global positioning systems (GPS), improved computational capabilities, and interdisciplinary research between the Earth and health science communities are being combined in rich collaborative efforts resulting in more rapid problem-solving, early warning, and prevention in global health issues. Collaborative efforts among scientists from health and Earth sciences together with local decision-makers are enabling increased understanding of the relationships between changes in temperature, rainfall, wind, soil moisture, solar radiation, vegetation, and the patterns of extreme weather events and the occurrence and patterns of diseases (especially, infectious and vector-borne diseases) and other health problems. This increased understanding through improved information and data sharing, in turn, empowers local health and environmental officials to better predict health problems, take preventive measure, and improve response actions. This paper summarizes the remote sensing systems most useful for climate, environment and health studies of the Caribbean region and provides several examples of interdisciplinary research projects in the Caribbean currently using remote sensing technologies. These summaries include the use of remote sensing of algal blooms, pollution transport, coral reef monitoring, vectorborne disease studies, and potential health effects of African dust on Trinidad and Barbados.

Maynard, Nancy G.↗

Evaluation of NASA's MERRA Precipitation Product in Reproducing the Observed Trend and Distribution of Extreme Precipitation Events in the United States

This study evaluates the performance of NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) precipitation product in reproducing the trend and distribution of extreme precipitation events. Utilizing the extreme value theory, time-invariant and time-variant extreme value distributions are developed to model the trends and changes in the patterns of extreme precipitation events over the contiguous United States during 1979-2010. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) U.S.Unified gridded observation data are used as the observational dataset. The CPC analysis shows that the eastern and western parts of the United States are experiencing positive and negative trends in annual maxima, respectively. The continental-scale patterns of change found in MERRA seem to reasonably mirror the observed patterns of change found in CPC. This is not previously expected, given the difficulty in constraining precipitation in reanalysis products. MERRA tends to overestimate the frequency at which the 99th percentile of precipitation is exceeded because this threshold tends to be lower in MERRA, making it easier to be exceeded. This feature is dominant during the summer months. MERRA tends to reproduce spatial patterns of the scale and location parameters of the generalized extreme value and generalized Pareto distributions. However, MERRA underestimates these parameters, particularly over the Gulf Coast states, leading to lower magnitudes in extreme precipitation events. Two issues in MERRA are identified: 1) MERRA shows a spurious negative trend in Nebraska and Kansas, which is most likely related to the changes in the satellite observing system over time that has apparently affected the water cycle in the central United States, and 2) the patterns of positive trend over the Gulf Coast states and along the East Coast seem to be correlated with the tropical cyclones in these regions. The analysis of the trends in the seasonal precipitation extremes indicates that the hurricane and winter seasons are contributing the most to these trend patterns in the southeastern United States. In addition, the increasing annual trend simulated by MERRA in the Gulf Coast region is due to an incorrect trend in winter precipitation extremes.

MERRA↗

Directed self-assembly of block copolymers for high-precision patterning in the era of extreme ultraviolet lithography

Extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography enables unprecedented resolution in semiconductor patterning but faces critical challenges in developing resist materials that achieve high-precision at economically viable throughput. Directed self-assembly (DSA) of block copolymers (BCPs) offers a promising solution for pattern rectification by leveraging thermodynamically determined domain structures to decouple BCP pattern quality from the imperfect original lithographic pattern. This prospective presents an overview of recent progress on the EUV + DSA strategy, covering advances in BCP material design, processing, metrology, and pattern transfer. We highlight recent advances in high-χ BCPs with perpendicular orientation and domain spacings compatible with EUV dimensions, leveraging A-b-(B-r-C) architectures. We also discuss progress in chemical pre-pattern fabrication using both positive- and negative tone resists, along with processing strategies to minimize defects and roughness based on BCP thermodynamics and assembly kinetics. We further examine metrology platforms for characterizing the thermodynamics of BCP materials and quantifying the size and shape of BCP domains. Lastly, we review pattern transfer strategies for generating functional inorganic masks suitable for semiconductor manufacturing. Together, these advances highlight the potential of DSA to complement EUV lithography, offering a pathway to address critical challenges in achieving high-precision patterning for the semiconductor industry.

Lee, Kyunghyeon [Univ. of Chicago, IL (United Stat↗

Implications of Arctic Sea Ice Decline for the Earth System

Arctic sea ice decline has led to an amplification of surface warming and is projected to continue to decline from anthropogenic forcing, although the exact timing of ice-free summers is uncertain owing to large natural variability. Sea ice reductions affect surface heating patterns and the atmospheric pressure distribution, which may alter midlatitude extreme weather patterns. Increased light penetration and nutrient availability during spring from earlier ice breakup enhances primary production in the Arctic Ocean and its adjacent shelf seas. Ice-obligate marine mammals may be losers, whereas seasonally migrant species may be winners from rapid sea ice decline. Tundra greening is occurring across most of the Arctic, driven primarily by warming temperatures, and is displaying complex spatial patterns that are likely tied to other factors. Sea ice changes are affecting greenhouse gas exchanges as well as halogen chemistry in the Arctic. This review highlights the heterogeneous nature of Arctic change, which is vital for researchers to better understand.

Decline↗

North American extreme precipitation events and related large-scale meteorological patterns: a review of statistical methods, dynamics, modeling, and trends

This paper surveys the current state of knowledge regarding large-scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs) associated with short-duration (less than 1 week) extreme precipitation events over North America. In contrast to teleconnections, which are typically defned based on the characteristic spatial variations of a meteorological feld or on the remote circulation response to a known forcing, LSMPs are defned relative to the occurrence of a specifc phenomenon—here, extreme precipitation—and with an emphasis on the synoptic scales that have a primary infuence in individual events, have medium-range weather predictability, and are well-resolved in both weather and climate models. For the LSMP relationship with extreme precipitation, we consider the previous literature with respect to defnitions and data, dynamical mechanisms, model representation, and climate change trends. There is considerable uncertainty in identifying extremes based on existing observational precipitation data and some limitations in analyzing the associated LSMPs in reanalysis data. Many diferent defnitions of “extreme” are in use, making it difcult to directly compare diferent studies. Dynamically, several types of meteorological systems—extratropical cyclones, tropical cyclones, mesoscale convective systems, and mesohighs—and several mechanisms—fronts, atmospheric rivers, and orographic ascent—have been shown to be important aspects of extreme precipitation LSMPs. The extreme precipitation is often realized through mesoscale processes organized, enhanced, or triggered by the LSMP. Understanding of model representation, trends, and projections for LSMPs is at an early stage, although some promising analysis techniques have been identifed and the LSMP perspective is useful for evaluating the model dynamics associated with extremes.

Barlow, Mathew↗