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DOE OSTI2023

A Vertically Resolved Analysis of Radiative Feedbacks on Moist Static Energy Variance in Tropical Cyclones

Abstract A vertically resolved moist static energy (MSE) variance budget framework is used to diagnose processes associated with the development of tropical cyclones (TCs) in a general circulation model (GCM) under realistic boundary conditions. Previous studies have shown that interactions between radiation and MSE promote TC development. Here, we examine the vertical contributions of radiation and its interactions with MSE by performing several mechanism-denial experiments in which synoptic-scale radiative interactions are suppressed either in the boundary layer or in the free troposphere. Partly suppressing radiative interactions results in a reduction in global TC frequency. However, the magnitude of reduction and structure of the feedback depend on the intensity and structure of the TCs in these mechanism-denial experiments, indicating that both the magnitude and the vertical location of radiative interactions can impact global TC frequency. Using instantaneous 6-hourly outputs, an explicit computation reveals distinct spatial patterns of the advection term: the vertical component is positive in the mid- to upper troposphere, which reflects an upward transport of MSE by deep convection, whereas the horizontal component is positive in the boundary layer. These results illustrate the impact of the vertical distribution of radiative interactions and vertically varied contribution of the advection term in the development of TCs.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

NASA NTRS1999

Tropical Cyclone Paka's Initial Explosive Development (10-12 December, 1997)

Convection associated with an equatorial westerly wind burst was first observed late November during the strong El Nino of 1997 at approximately 2000 km southwest of the Hawaiian Islands. This region of convection lead to the formation of twin tropical cyclones, one in the southern hemisphere named Pam and the other in the northern hemisphere named Paka. During the first week in December, tropical cyclone Paka, the system of concern, reached tropical storm stage as it moved rapidly westward at relatively low latitudes. During the 10-12 of December, Paka rapidly developed into a typhoon.

Rodgers, Edward B.↗

NASA NTRS2000

On The Genesis of Tropical Cyclones: Role of Mesoscale Interactions

Before the last decades of the 20th century, observations were rarely adequate to assess the role of mesoscale circulations in the formation of tropical cyclones. Recent developments in remote-sensing technology have allowed routine collection of measurements that reveal the small- and mesoscale structure of forming tropical cyclones. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

Ritchie, Elizabeth↗

NASA NTRS2012

The Impact of Dry Midlevel Air on Hurricane Intensity in Idealized Simulations with No Mean Flow

This study examines the potential negative influences of dry midlevel air on the development of tropical cyclones (specifically, its role in enhancing cold downdraft activity and suppressing storm development). The Weather Research and Forecasting model is used to construct two sets of idealized simulations of hurricane development in environments with different configurations of dry air. The first set of simulations begins with dry air located north of the vortex center by distances ranging from 0 to 270 km, whereas the second set of simulations begins with dry air completely surrounding the vortex, but with moist envelopes in the vortex core ranging in size from 0 to 150 km in radius. No impact of the dry air is seen for dry layers located more than 270 km north of the initial vortex center (approximately 3 times the initial radius of maximum wind). When the dry air is initially closer to the vortex center, it suppresses convective development where it entrains into the storm circulation, leading to increasingly asymmetric convection and slower storm development. The presence of dry air throughout the domain, including the vortex center, substantially slows storm development. However, the presence of a moist envelope around the vortex center eliminates the deleterious impact on storm intensity. Instead, storm size is significantly reduced. The simulations suggest that dry air slows intensification only when it is located very close to the vortex core at early times. When it does slow storm development, it does so primarily by inducing outward- moving convective asymmetries that temporarily shift latent heating radially outward away from the high-vorticity inner core.

Weather Research and Forecasting model↗

NASA NTRS2006

Changes in Tropical Cyclone Intensity Over the Past 30 Years: A Global and Dynamic Perspective

The hurricane season of 2005 was the busiest on record and Hurricane Katrina (2005) is believed to be the costliest hurricane in U. S. history. There are growing concerns regarding whether this increased tropical cyclone activity is a result of global warming, as suggested by Emanuel(2005) and Webster et al. (2005), or just a natural oscillation (Goldenberg et al. 2001). This study examines the changes in tropical cyclone intensity to see what were really responsible for the changes in tropical cyclone activity over the past 30 years. Since the tropical sea surface temperature (SST) warming also leads to the response of atmospheric circulation, which is not solely determined by the local SST warming, this study suggests that it is better to take the tropical cyclone activities in the North Atlantic (NA), western North Pacific (WNP) and eastern North Pacific (ENP) basins as a whole when searching for the influence of the global-scale SST warming on tropical cyclone intensity. Over the past 30 years, as the tropical SST increased by about 0.5 C, the linear trends indicate 6%, 16% and 15% increases in the overall average intensity and lifetime and the annual frequency. Our analysis shows that the increased annual destructiveness of tropical cyclones reported by Emanuel(2005) resulted mainly from the increases in the average lifetime and annual frequency in the NA basin and from the increases in the average intensity and lifetime in the WNP basin, while the annual destructiveness in the ENP basin generally decreased over the past 30 years. The changes in the proportion of intense tropical cyclones reported by Webster et a1 (2005) were due mainly to the fact that increasing tropical cyclones took the tracks that favor for the development of intense tropical cyclones in the NA and WNP basins over the past 30 years. The dynamic influence associated with the tropical SST warming can lead to the impact of global warming on tropical cyclone intensity that may be very different from our current assessments, which were mainly based on the thermodynamic theory of tropical cyclone intensity.

Wu, Liguang↗

NASA NTRS2015

Hazard Assessment from Storm Tides and Rainfall on a Tidal River Estuary

Here, we report on methods and results for a model-based flood hazard assessment we have conducted for the Hudson River from New York City to Troy/Albany at the head of tide. Our recent work showed that neglecting freshwater flows leads to underestimation of peak water levels at up-river sites and neglecting stratification (typical with two-dimensional modeling) leads to underestimation all along the Hudson. As a result, we use a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model and merge streamflows and storm tides from tropical and extratropical cyclones (TCs, ETCs), as well as wet extratropical cyclone (WETC) floods (e.g. freshets, rain-on-snow events). We validate the modeled flood levels and quantify error with comparisons to 76 historical events. A Bayesian statistical method is developed for tropical cyclone streamflows using historical data and consisting in the evaluation of (1) the peak discharge and its pdf as a function of TC characteristics, and (2) the temporal trend of the hydrograph as a function of temporal evolution of the cyclone track, its intensity and the response characteristics of the specific basin. A k-nearest-neighbors method is employed to determine the hydrograph shape. Out of sample validation tests demonstrate the effectiveness of the method. Thus, the combined effects of storm surge and runoff produced by tropical cyclones hitting the New York area can be included in flood hazard assessment. Results for the upper Hudson (Albany) suggest a dominance of WETCs, for the lower Hudson (at New York Harbor) a case where ETCs are dominant for shorter return periods and TCs are more important for longer return periods (over 150 years), and for the middle-Hudson (Poughkeepsie) a mix of all three flood events types is important. However, a possible low-bias for TC flood levels is inferred from a lower importance in the assessment results, versus historical event top-20 lists, and this will be further evaluated as these preliminary methods and results are finalized. Future funded work will quantify the influences of sea level rise and flood adaptation plans (e.g. surge barriers). It would also be valuable to examine how streamflows from tropical cyclones and wet cool-season storms will change, as this factor will dominate at upriver locations.

Hazard assessment↗

NASA NTRS1994

Specific features of space-time variations of ozone during the development of intensive tropical disturbances

An analysis of specific features of space-time variations of ozone in the tropical areas which has been performed on the basis of processing of the results of special expedition studies in the Atlantic and Pacific in 1987-1990 and the data of observations at the stations of the world ozonometric network over the 25-year period. The existence of a cause-and-effect relation has been revealed between the processes determining tropical cyclone (TC) development, and specific features of variations of the total content of ozone (TCO) and the vertical distribution of ozone (VDO) in the regions of TC action. Characteristic features of day-to-day and daily variations of TCO during TC development have been found. On the periphery of a developing TC, 1-4 days before it reaches the stage of storm, TCO increases, on average, by 5-8 percent, and a substantial increase in the concentration of ozone occurs in the middle and upper troposphere. The most probable physical mechanisms relating the observed specific features of ozone variations to TC evolution have been suggested. A hypothesis of the possibility of using ozone as an indicator for early prediction of TC development has been substantiated.

Nerushev, Alexander F.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Overview of the Fourth Convection and Moisture Experiment (CAMEX-4)

The Convection And Moisture Experiment (CAMEX) is a series of field research investigations sponsored by the Earth Science Enterprise of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). The fourth field campaign in the CAMEX series (CAMEX-4) was recently conducted during 16 August - 24 September 2001 using the Jacksonville Naval Air Station in Florida as the main base of operations. CAMEX-4 focused on the study of tropical cyclone (hurricane) development, tracking, intensification, and landfalling impacts using NASA-funded aircraft and surface remote sensing instrumentation. The results of this study will be used to address key issues pertinent to a larger NASA ESE study of the global water cycle as well as to provide synergistic contributions to the research goals of the Hurricane Research Division (HRD) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the Hurricanes At Landfall Initiative of the United States Weather Research Program. All CAMEX-4 aircraft missions were planned and jointly conducted with NOAA aircraft to insure comprehensive sampling. An overview of preliminary observations of Tropical Storms Chantal and Gabrielle as well as Hurricanes Erin and Humberto will be presented.

Hood, Robbie↗

DOE OSTI2023

The Diurnal Cycle of East Pacific Convection, Moisture, and CYGNSS Wind Speed and Fluxes

The far eastern tropical Pacific is one of the rainiest locations on Earth. This region is characterized by a robust diurnal cycle with precipitation initiating over the Andes mountains in Colombia in the late afternoon and moving offshore overnight while organizing into mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). As the MCSs move westward, they can seed tropical easterly waves that develop into tropical cyclones. Novel measurements of near-surface wind speeds and latent heat flux (LHFLX) from the Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) mission and ERA5 reanalysis are used to evaluate changes to regional flow patterns, moisture, and LHFLX that favor a strong westward propagating diurnal cycle of precipitation in this region. Days with strongly versus weakly westward propagating diurnal precipitation are compared during the extended boreal summer of the CYGNSS era (May–October 2018–2021). Strongly propagating days have a more moist lower troposphere with stronger vertically integrated moisture flux convergence than days with weakly propagating precipitation. The enhanced low-level moisture is supported by increased wind-driven LHFLX from stronger regional flows including the Choco and Caribbean Low-Level Jets and Panama and Papagayo gap winds. Increased offshore convergence and vorticity also help sustain convection during the days with strongly propagating precipitation. Background variations in the physical environment, as opposed to diurnal variations, seem more important for supporting a robust diurnal cycle of precipitation in the region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1987

Observation guidelines for a Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) in geosynchronous orbit

The successful utilization of Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) measurements in low Earth orbit for the analysis of rapidly changing events has led to the consideration of a TOMS in geosynchronous orbit. This orbit should allow for the selection of temporal and spatial resolutions that are specifically designed for these events, plus the flexibility of selecting different sized areas and pointing the sensor to focus on the most interesting events. Separate temporal and spatial resolution guidelines plus recommended areal coverage have been developed for tropical cyclones, jet streams, the interaction between strong convection and the environment, and the surveillance of volcanoes. It is also suggested that the most effective use of TOMS would be simultaneous flights with microwave and high spatial resolution infrared temperature profiles.

Shenk, William E.↗

NASA NTRS2012

African Easterly Jet: Barotropic Instability, Waves, and Cyclogenesis

This study investigates the structure of the African easterly jet, focusing on instability processes on a seasonal and subseasonal scale, with the goal of identifying features that could provide increased predictability of Atlantic tropical cyclogenesis. The Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) is used as the main investigating tool. MERRA is compared with other reanalyses datasets from major operational centers around the world and was found to describe very effectively the circulation over the African monsoon region. In particular, a comparison with precipitation datasets from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project shows that MERRA realistically reproduces seasonal precipitation over that region. The verification of the generalized Kuo barotropic instability condition computed from seasonal means is found to have the interesting property of defining well the location where observed tropical storms are detected. This property does not appear to be an artifact of MERRA and is present also in the other adopted reanalysis datasets. Therefore, the fact that the areas where the mean flow is unstable seems to provide a more favorable environment for wave intensification, could be another factor to include-in addition to sea surface temperature, vertical shear, precipitation, the role of Saharan air, and others-among large-scale forcings affecting development and tropical cyclone frequency. In addition, two prominent modes of variability are found based on a spectral analysis that uses the Hilbert-Huang transform: a 2.5-6-day mode that corresponds well to the African easterly waves and also a 6-9-day mode that seems to be associated with tropical- extratropical interaction.

Wu, Man-Li C↗

NASA NTRS2014

Impact of Assimilated and Interactive Aerosol on Tropical Cyclogenesis

This article investigates the impact 3 of Saharan dust on the development of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. A global data assimilation and forecast system, the NASA GEOS-5, is used to assimilate all satellite and conventional data sets used operationally for numerical weather prediction. In addition, this new GEOS-5 version includes assimilation of aerosol optical depth from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). The analysis so obtained comprises atmospheric quantities and a realistic 3-d aerosol and cloud distribution, consistent with the meteorology and validated against Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) and CloudSat data. These improved analyses are used to initialize GEOS-5 forecasts, explicitly accounting for aerosol direct radiative effects and their impact on the atmospheric dynamics. Parallel simulations with/without aerosol radiative effects show that effects of dust on static stability increase with time, becoming highly significant after day 5 and producing an environment less favorable to tropical cyclogenesis.

dust↗

NASA NTRS2018

Sensitivity of Different Types of Observations to NASA GEOS Hurricane Analyses and Forecasts

The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season was the 5th most active, featuring 17 named storms, the highest number of major hurricanes since 2005, and by far the costliest season on record. African easterly waves often serve as the seeding circulation for a large portion of hurricanes (i.e. tropical storms with wind over 74mph in the Atlantic and Northeast Pacific). Warm SST, moist air, and low wind shear are the main requirements for tropical cyclones to develop and maintain hurricane strength. In terms of hurricane propagation (so called hurricane tracks), Atlantic hurricanes typically propagate around the periphery of the subtropical ridge called the Bermuda High (Azores High), riding along its strongest winds. If the high is positioned to the east, then hurricanes generally propagate northeastward around the high's western edge into the open Atlantic Ocean without making land fall. If the high is positioned to the west and extends far enough to the south, storms are blocked from curving north and forced to continue west towards Florida, Cuba, and the Gulf of Mexico. If we have accurate atmospheric temperature distribution, which is directly related to atmospheric wave patterns, wind distributions, moisture distribution, and SST distribution in the analyses, we will have better NWP skills in hurricane analyses including hurricane intensity and tracks. Assimilating various observation data are supposed to play these roles in the analyses. To examine impacts of different types of observation data on NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model hurricane analyses and forecasts during the period of 2017 summer, this study performs data denial experiments using GEOS Atmospheric Data Assimilation System (ADAS), which is based on the hybrid 4D-EnVar GSI algorithm. Various types of observations such as microwave sounders, infrared sounders, TCvitals, and conventional data are removed in the experiments. In addition, the interaction between the different observation groups as certain instruments are removed from the analysis is investigated in detail using adjoint based forecast sensitivity observation impact (FSOI).

Hurricane↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Relating Lightning Activity to the Convective Evolution of Pre-Genesis Tropical Disturbances

Lightning and environmental characteristics are analyzed for National Hurricane Center (NHC) invest disturbances. For 2019-2021, Atlantic NHC invest tracks are grouped into disturbances that eventually developed into tropical cyclones (TCs) and ones that did not. Data from the NASA/NOAA Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) is used to quantify potential differences in total optical energy, flash extent density, and flash area between the groups. To provide environmental context to the lightning results, vertical profiles from the NOAA Unique Combined Atmospheric Processing System (NUCAPS) dataset will be investigated. Specifically, the profiles will provide insight into the temperature and moisture structure of the invests. In addition to the composite analysis, interesting cases of tropical cyclogenesis will be examined in further detail. Overall, this work seeks to further our understanding of lightning properties and convective environments in tropical cyclogenesis.

Justin W Whitaker↗

NASA NTRS2018

Deepti: Deep Learning-Based Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation

We present the development of a deep learning model for objective estimation of tropical cyclone intensity at a higher temporal frequency, deployment of the model in production, design and implementation of the tropical cyclone monitoring and intensity estimation system and development of an interactive portal for situational awareness and evaluation of intensity estimation.

Maskey, Manil↗

NASA NTRS2011

A Statistical Model of Tropical Cyclone Tracks in the Western North Pacific with ENSO-Dependent Cyclogenesis

A new statistical model for western North Pacific Ocean tropical cyclone genesis and tracks is developed and applied to estimate regionally resolved tropical cyclone landfall rates along the coasts of the Asian mainland, Japan, and the Philippines. The model is constructed on International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) 1945-2007 historical data for the western North Pacific. The model is evaluated in several ways, including comparing the stochastic spread in simulated landfall rates with historic landfall rates. Although certain biases have been detected, overall the model performs well on the diagnostic tests, for example, reproducing well the geographic distribution of landfall rates. Western North Pacific cyclogenesis is influenced by El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This dependence is incorporated in the model s genesis component to project the ENSO-genesis dependence onto landfall rates. There is a pronounced shift southeastward in cyclogenesis and a small but significant reduction in basinwide annual counts with increasing ENSO index value. On almost all regions of coast, landfall rates are significantly higher in a negative ENSO state (La Nina).

Yonekura, Emmi↗

NASA NTRS2008

An Overview of the Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD)

Accurate observations of ocean surface vector winds (OSVW) with high spatial and temporal resolution are critically important to improve both our understanding and predictability of tropical cyclones. As the successful NASA QuikSCAT satellite continues to age beyond its planned life span, many members of the tropical cyclone research and operational community recognize the need to develop new observational technologies and strategies to meet the essential need for OSVW information. This concern has been expressed in both the "Earth Science and Applications from Space: National Imperatives for the Next Decade and Beyond" developed by the National Research Council Committee on Earth Science and Applications from Space and the "Interagency Strategic Research Plan for Tropical Cyclone The Way Ahead" developed by the Joint Action Group for Tropical Cyclone Research (JAG-TCR) sponsored by the Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology. One innovative technology development which offers the potential for new, unique remotely sensed observations of tropical cyclone OSVW and precipitation is the Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD). This new instrument is passive microwave synthetic thinned aperture radiometer under development at the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center that will operate at the C-Band frequencies of 4, 5, 6, and 7 GHz. These frequencies have been successfully demonstrated by the NOAA nadir-staring Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR) as useful for monitoring tropical cyclone ocean surface wind speeds and rain rates from low altitude reconnaissance aircraft. The HIRAD design incorporates a unique antenna design as well as several technologies that have been successfully demonstrated by the University of Michigan Lightweight Rain Radiometer sponsored by NASA Earth Science Technology Office Instrument Incubator Program. HIRAD will be a compact, lightweight, low-power instrument with no moving parts that will produce imagery of ocean wind surface wind parameters and rain rate during the strong wind and heavy rain hurricane conditions that hamper the observational capabilities of higher frequency passive microwave radiometers or scatterometers. It will also produce imagery of sea surface temperature under cloudy and lightly precipitating skies eliminating the need for additional thermal infrared imagers. The strategic plan for HIRAD includes a roadmap for ocean surface wind speed and OSVW technology development using flight demonstrations on piloted aircraft, uninhabited aerial vehicle systems, and satellite platforms. The roadmap will include exit opportunities for technology transfer from research to operations based on satisfactory demonstrations. The first aircraft version of HIRAD will be singular polarization sensor designed to observe ocean surface wind speed and rainfall. The second aircraft version of HIRAD will be dual polarization sensor designed to observe OSVW as a prototype for a future satellite sensor.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2009

Integrating and Visualizing Tropical Cyclone Data Using the Real Time Mission Monitor

The Real Time Mission Monitor (RTMM) is a visualization and information system that fuses multiple Earth science data sources, to enable real time decision-making for airborne and ground validation experiments. Developed at the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, RTMM is a situational awareness, decision-support system that integrates satellite imagery, radar, surface and airborne instrument data sets, model output parameters, lightning location observations, aircraft navigation data, soundings, and other applicable Earth science data sets. The integration and delivery of this information is made possible using data acquisition systems, network communication links, network server resources, and visualizations through the Google Earth virtual globe application. RTMM is extremely valuable for optimizing individual Earth science airborne field experiments. Flight planners, scientists, and managers appreciate the contributions that RTMM makes to their flight projects. A broad spectrum of interdisciplinary scientists used RTMM during field campaigns including the hurricane-focused 2006 NASA African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses (NAMMA), 2007 NOAA-NASA Aerosonde Hurricane Noel flight, 2007 Tropical Composition, Cloud, and Climate Coupling (TC4), plus a soil moisture (SMAP-VEX) and two arctic research experiments (ARCTAS) in 2008. Improving and evolving RTMM is a continuous process. RTMM recently integrated the Waypoint Planning Tool, a Java-based application that enables aircraft mission scientists to easily develop a pre-mission flight plan through an interactive point-and-click interface. Individual flight legs are automatically calculated "on the fly". The resultant flight plan is then immediately posted to the Google Earth-based RTMM for interested scientists to view the planned flight track and subsequently compare it to the actual real time flight progress. We are planning additional capabilities to RTMM including collaborations with the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in the joint development of a Tropical Cyclone Integrated Data Exchange and Analysis System (TC IDEAS) which will serve as a web portal for access to tropical cyclone data, visualizations and model output.

Goodman, H. Michael↗