SEARCH · Engineering Papers
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.
Predictions of tropical cyclone development based on Nimbus 2 high resolution infrared radiometer measurements, and ESSA 3 photographic observations of 1966 typhoon
This study evaluates the ability of machine learning algorithms to classify tropical depressions (TDs) and tropical storms (TSs) in the western region of the southwest Pacific Ocean (SWPO). Decision rules are generated to predict the environment required for a depression to fully develop into a mature storm, and the most influential predictors in the classification decision are ranked. TD and TS are discriminated based on a maximum sustained wind speed threshold (≥17 ms -1 ). Various aerosol, thermodynamic, and dynamic parameters are extracted closest to the initiation point of each non-developing and developing sample. The covariates associated with each labelled sample are used to train a decision tree and random forest model. Results using a testing dataset suggest the random forest approach more accurately distinguishes between non-developing and developing samples. The classification accuracy of the decision tree and random forest are 72% and 91%, respectively. Random forest outperformed the decision tree by providing higher accuracy in test data. The most important variables for binary classification are sea salt aerosol optical depth (AOD), 1,000 mb relative humidity, and sea surface temperature. AOD is a quantitative estimate of the aerosols presents in the air through the extinction of a ray of light as it passes through the atmosphere. Mean composite maps constructed in an unsupervised manner have been created for the most important variables identified by the random forest classifier during TD and TS events to highlight the difference in geophysical and aerosol variables' climatology during the two different classifications. This work will advance the risk management strategies for northeastern Australia and other SWPO basin islands to control their tropical cyclone related losses through prioritizing forecasting variables that are the strongest predictors of the strengthening of tropical depressions into tropical cyclones.
The depth and intensity of convective-scale "hot" towers in intensifying tropical disturbances has been hypothesized to play a role in tropical cyclogenesis via dynamic and thermodynamic feedbacks on the larger meso-to-synoptic scale circulation. In this investigation we investigate the role that widespread and/or intense lightning-producing convection (i.e., "electrically-hot towers") resident in African Easterly Waves (AEW) may play in tropical cyclogenesis over the eastern Atlantic Ocean. NCEP reanalysis data for the months of July to November for the years 2004, 2006, and 2007 are analyzed for the domain of 5 N - 15 N and 500W - 300 E. Specifically, NCEP data for individual AEWs are partitioned into northerly, southerly, trough, and ridge phases using the 700 hPa meridional winds. Subsequently, information from National Hurricane Center storm reports were divided up into developing and non-developing waves (i.e. tropical cyclogenesis). Finally, composites were created of developing and non-developing waves using the NCEP variables, but with the inclusion of lightning flash count and infrared brightness temperature information. The Zeus and World Wide Lightning Location Network lightning data were used for the lightning information, and the IR brightness temperature data was extracted from the NASA global-merged infrared brightness temperature dataset.
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
In this study, we investigate the characteristics of tropical easterly wave convection and the possible implications of convective structure on tropical cyclogenesis and intensification over the Atlantic Ocean and East Pacific using data from the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission Microwave Imager, Precipitation Radar (PR), and Lightning Imaging Sensor as well as infrared (IR) brightness temperature data from the NASA global-merged IR brightness temperature dataset. Easterly waves were partitioned into northerly, southerly, trough, and ridge phases based on the 700-hPa meridional wind from the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis dataset. Waves were subsequently divided according to whether they did or did not develop tropical cyclones (i.e., developing and nondeveloping, respectively), and developing waves were further subdivided according to development location. Finally, composites as a function of wave phase and category were created using the various datasets. Results suggest that the convective characteristics that best distinguish developing from nondeveloping waves vary according to where developing waves spawn tropical cyclones. For waves that developed a cyclone in the Atlantic basin, coverage by IR brightness temperatures .240 K and .210 K provide the best distinction between developing and nondeveloping waves. In contrast, several variables provide a significant distinction between nondeveloping waves and waves that develop cyclones over the East Pacific as these waves near their genesis location including IR threshold coverage, lightning flash rates, and low-level (<4.5 km) PR reflectivity. Results of this study may be used to help develop thresholds to better distinguish developing from nondeveloping waves and serve as another aid for tropical cyclogenesis forecasting.
In this study, we investigate the radiative forcing of Saharan dust, its interactions with the Atlantic Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), through African easterly waves (AEW), African easterly jets (AEJ), and its impacts in short term numerical forecasts of tropical cyclogenesis using the GOCART-GEOS5 forecast system. Our approach is to develop and use an A-Train satellite simulator (ATSS) to constrain the observed aerosol index of refraction and particle size distribution by finding the values that simultaneously minimize the difference between observed CALIOP, CloudSat, OMI, and MODIS radiances and simulated radiances inverted from atmospheric model output using procedures and physical principles consistent with those used in corresponding retrieval algorithms. We use observations from the A-train and TRMM to determine relationships among the Saharan dust layer, transport by the AEW, and possible responses to dust radiative forcing in developing tropical cyclones in the A-ITCZ. Preliminary model results showing physical processes associated with the generation and transport of the Saharan dust layer, their interactions with the incipient moisture, clouds and rainfall in developing tropical cyclones will be presented. Also presented will be results of a case study of possible radiative impacts on AEW and AEJ during the NAMMA field campaign.
The crucial physics of how the atmosphere really accomplishes the tropical cyclogenesis process is still poorly understood. The presence of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), an elevated mixed layer of warm and dry air that extends from Africa to the tropical Atlantic and contains a substantial amount of mineral dust, adds more complexity to the tropical cyclogenesis process in the Atlantic basin. The impact of the SAL on tropical cyclogenesis is still uncertain. Karyampudi and Carlson (1988) conclude that a strong SAL can potentially aid tropical cyclone development while Dunion and Velden (2004) argue that the SAL generally inhibits tropical cyclogenesis and intensification. Advancing our understanding of the physical mechanisms of tropical cyclogenesis and the associated roles of the SAL strongly depends on the improvement in the observations over the data-sparse ocean areas. After the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU), and the microwave Humidity Sounder of Brazil (HSB) were launched with the NASA Aqua satellite in 2002, new data products retrieved from the AIRS suite became available for studying the effect of the warm, dry air mass associated with the SAL (referred to as the thermodynamic effect). The vertical profiles of the AIRS retrieved temperature and humidity provide an unprecedented opportunity to examine the thermodynamic effect of the SAL. The observational data can be analyzed and assimilated into numerical models, in which the model thermodynamic state is allowed to relax to the observed state from AIRS data. The objective of this study is to numerically demonstrate that the thermodynamic effect of the SAL on the formation of Hurricane Isabel (2003) can be largely simulated through nudging of the AIRS data.
The Tropical Cloud Systems and Processes experiment is sponsored by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) to investigate characteristics of tropical cyclone genesis, rapid intensification and rainfall using a three-pronged approach that emphasizes satellite information, suborbital observations and numerical model simulations. Research goals include demonstration and assessment of new technology, improvements to numerical model parameterizations, and advancements in data assimilation techniques. The field phase of the experiment was based in Costa Rica during July 2005. A fully instrumented NASA ER-2 high altitude airplane was deployed with Doppler radar, passive microwave instrumentation, lightning and electric field sensors and an airborne simulator of visible and infrared satellite sensors. Other assets brought to TCSP were a low flying uninhabited aerial vehicle, and a surface-based radiosonde network. In partnership with the Intensity Forecasting Experiment of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Hurricane Research Division, two NOAA P-3 aircraft instrumented with radar, passive microwave, microphysical, and dropsonde instrumentation were also deployed to Costa Rica. The field phase of TCSP was conducted in Costa Rica to take advantage of the geographically compact tropical cyclone genesis region of the Eastern Pacific Ocean near Central America. However, the unusual 2005 hurricane season provided numerous opportunities to sample tropical cyclone development and intensification in the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico as well. Development of Hurricane Dennis and Tropical Storm Gert were each investigated over several days in addition to Hurricane Emily as it was close to Saffir-Simpson Category 5 intensity. An overview of the characteristics of these storms along with the pregenesis environment of Tropical Storm Eugene in the Eastern Pacific will be presented.
This was a joint award to the PI, then of Texas A&M University, and Gerald Heymsfield of NASA GSFC, with co-I's Robbie Hood and Richard Blakeslee of NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC). Although the PI moved to the University of Utah during year-2 of this grant, it continued to be administered through Texas A&M for the convenience of the Ph.D. student Daniel Cecil until after he defended his dissertation in late 2000. Cecil has assembled a subset of this database for 261 Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) passes over 45 hurricanes or tropical cyclones. It consists of TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) ice scattering signatures and TRMM Precipitation Radar (PR) reflectivity profiles and Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) flash locations for the rain features associated with all tropical cyclones observed by TRMM from Dec. 1997 through Dec. 1998. Each rain feature has been subjectively cataloged as belonging to a hurricane eyewall, inner rainband, outer rainband, or the inner or outer regions of a developing or non-developing tropical cyclone. This database quantifies the relative abundance of lightning in outer rainbands compared to eyewalls and inner rainbands. The TRMM data set permits studies that can seek more specific physical relationships than Cecil and Zipser were able to find when they related some SSM/I measures of ice scattering to hurricane intensity change.
Abstract Past studies have shown a significant observed poleward trend in the latitude at which tropical cyclones reach their lifetime maximum intensity (LMI), especially in the northwest Pacific basin. Given the brevity of the historical record, it remains difficult to separate the forced trend from internal variability of the climate system. A recently developed tropical cyclone downscaling model is used to downscale the Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2), preindustrial control simulation. It is found that the observed trend in the latitude at which tropical cyclones reach their LMI in the northwest Pacific is very unlikely to be caused by internal variability. The same downscaling model is then used to downscale CESM2 simulations under historical forcing. The resulting trend distribution shows a significant poleward migration of tropical cyclone LMI even after regressing out both natural variability and the part of the forced warming pattern that projects onto natural variability. The results indicate that the observed poleward migration of the latitude at which tropical cyclones reach their LMI in the northwest Pacific basin is likely to be, at least in part, forced. However, the magnitude of the projected poleward trend in climate models can be significantly modulated by the simulated spatial pattern of ocean warming. This highlights how discrepancies between models and observations, with regard to projected changes to the equatorial zonal sea surface temperature gradient under anthropogenic forcing, can lead to large uncertainties in projected changes to the LMI latitude of tropical cyclones. Significance Statement Observations in the northwest Pacific basin show that the latitude at which tropical cyclones are at their most intense has been trending northward in the recent half century. These changes are important since tropical cyclones could bring hazardous weather to coastal areas that are poorly equipped to handle them. Here, we show that natural variations in Earth’s climate are very unlikely to explain the observed poleward trend in the latitude that tropical cyclone reach their maximum intensity. We find that it is much more likely that the observed trend is forced by human-related emissions, though the spatial pattern of warming in response to greenhouse emissions can have significant impacts on the magnitude of the trend.
As tropical cyclones develop from easterly waves coming of the coast of Africa they interact with dust from the Sahara desert. There is a long standing debate over whether this dust inhibits or advances the developing storm and how much influence it has. Dust can surround the storm and absorb incoming solar radiation, cooling the air below. As a result an energy source for the system is potentially diminished, inhibiting growth of the storm. Alternatively dust may interact with clouds through micro-physical processes, for example by causing more moisture to condense, potentially increasing the strength. As a result of climate change, concentrations and amount of dust in the atmosphere will likely change. It it is important to properly understand its effect on tropical storm formation. The adjoint of an atmospheric general circulation model provides a very powerful tool for investigating sensitivity to initial conditions. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has recently developed an adjoint version of the Goddard Earth Observing System version 5 (GEOS-5) dynamical core, convection scheme, cloud model and radiation schemes. This is extended so that the interaction between dust and radiation is also accounted for in the adjoint model. This provides a framework for examining the sensitivity to dust in the initial conditions. Specifically the set up allows for an investigation into the extent to which dust affects cyclone strength through absorption of radiation. In this work we investigate the validity of using an adjoint model for examining sensitivity to dust in hurricane formation. We present sensitivity results for a number of systems that developed during the Atlantic hurricane season of 2006. During this period there was a significant outbreak of Saharan dust and it is has been argued that this outbreak was responsible for the relatively calm season. This period was also covered by an extensive observation campaign. It is shown that the adjoint can provide insight into the sensitivity and reveals a relatively low sensitivity to dust compared to, for example, the thermodynamic variables. However a secondary sensitivity though moisture is seen. If dust dries the air it can significantly reduce the cyclone intensity through the moisture.
The third Convection And Moisture EXperiment (CAMEX-3) was conducted from 6 August - 27 September 1998. CAMEX is a series of field experiments sponsored by the Earth Science Enterprise of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). The overall goal of CAMEX-3 was to study atmospheric water vapor and precipitation processes using a unique array of aircraft, balloon, and land-based remote sensors for research in tropical cyclone development, tracking, intensification, and landfalling situations using NASA-funded aircraft and surface remote sensing instrumentation. This project collected high spatial and temporal information of hurricane structure, dynamics, and motion. The ER-2 and DC-8 were the primary NASA aircraft used in the deployment flying at altitudes of 65,000 and 35,000 feet, respectively. In addition, coordinated flights with NOAA WP-3 and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters C-130 aircraft were developed so that some missions involved as many as five to six aircraft. This presentation will highlight the CAMEX-3 research. It will focus primarily on the unique observations gained while studying Hurricane Georges during four missions: 1) near St. Croix, 2) over the Domican Republic, 3) over the Florida Keys, and 4) near landfall on the Mississippi coast. In particular, observations obtained through the use of the ER-2 of the orographically forced precipitation as it interacted with Hispaniola on 22 September 1998 will be shown.
The Convection And Moisture EXperiment (CAMEX) is a series of field research investigations sponsored by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). The third field campaign in the CAMEX series (CAMEX-3) is scheduled for 6 August - 23 September, 1998 to study tropical cyclone development, tracking, intensification, and landfalling impacts using NASA-funded aircraft remote sensing instrumentation. This study will yield high spatial and temporal information of hurricane structure, dynamics, and motion. These data, when analyzed within the context of more traditional aircraft, satellite, and ground-based radar observations, should provide additional insight to hurricane modelers and forecasters who continually strive to improve hurricane predictions. During CAMEX-3, NASA will deploy a high attitude ER-2 and medium altitude DC-8 aircraft from Patrick Air Force Base, Florida. Ground-based instrumentation will also be stationed on Andros Island, Bahamas. Opportunities for coordinated aircraft missions with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Hurricane Research Division are also being planned. This presentation will provide an overview of the CAMEX-3 missions and key case studies sampled. Data availability and access will also be discussed.
Abstract Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) are known to develop from African easterly waves (AEWs) that propagate across North Africa and out over the Atlantic Ocean. The relationship between AEWs and TCs has been the subject of numerous previous studies. There are, however, many Atlantic TCs that do not have AEW origins. In this study, we provide a novel analysis of the characteristics and trends of Atlantic TCs both with and without AEW origins using 43 years of observational and reanalysis data. To conduct this research, we identified TCs with and without AEW origins from the observational record between 1980 and 2022, and ran objective tracking algorithms on reanalysis data to identify the AEWs and TCs during this time period. We found statistically significant differences in the characteristics and environments of TCs with and without AEW origins. TCs with AEW origins are stronger and costlier, experience more favorable environmental conditions, and are more likely to make landfall in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean when compared to TCs without AEW origins. Additionally, the 43‐year increasing trend in Atlantic TC activity is primarily driven by an increase in TCs with AEW origins that is associated with increasing AEW frequency and strength, with anthropogenic aerosols potentially driving this trend. In contrast, we found no trend in TCs without AEW origins.
The next-generation global climate model from the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, GISS-E3, contains many improvements to resolution and physics that allow for improved representation of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the model. This study examines the properties of TCs in two different versions of E3 at different points in its development cycle, run for 20 years at 0.5 degree resolution, and compares these TCs with observations, the previous generation GISS model, E2, and other climate models. E3 shares many TC biases common to global climate models, such as having too few tropical cyclones, but is much improved from E2. E3 produces strong enough TCs that observation-based wind speed thresholds can now be used to detect and track them, and some storms now reach hurricane intensity; neither of these was true of E2. Model development between the first and second versions of E3 further increased the number and intensity of TCs and reduced TC count biases globally and in most regions. One-year sensitivity tests to changes in various microphysical and dynamical tuning parameters are also examined. Increasing the entrainment rate for the more strongly-entraining plume in the convection scheme increases the number of TCs (though also affecting other climate variables, and in some cases increasing biases). Variations in divergence damping did not have a strong effect on simulated TC properties, contrary to expectations based on previous studies. Overall, the improvements in E3 make it more credible for studies of TC activity and its relationship to climate.
The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season was extremely active with six major hurricanes, the third most on record. The sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) over the eastern Main Development Region (EMDR), where many tropical cyclones (TCs) developed during active months of August/September, were ~0.96°C above the 1901-2017 average (warmest on record): about ~0.42°C from a long-term upward trend and the rest (~80%) attributed to the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM). The contribution to the SST from the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) over the EMDR was a weak warming, while that from El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was negligible. Nevertheless, ENSO, the NAO, and the AMM all contributed to favorable wind shear conditions, while the AMM also produced enhanced atmospheric instability. Compared with the strong hurricane years of 2005/2010, the ocean heat content (OHC) during 2017 was larger across the tropics, with higher SST anomalies over the EMDR and Caribbean Sea. On the other hand, the dynamical/thermodynamical atmospheric conditions, while favorable for enhanced TC activity, were less prominent than in 2005/2010 across the tropics. The results suggest that unusually warm SST in the EMDR together with the long fetch of the resulting storms in the presence of record-breaking OHC may be key factors in driving the strong TC activity in 2017.
The 2017 hurricane season was extremely active with six major hurricanes, the third most on record. The sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) over the eastern Main Development Region (EMDR), where many tropical cyclones (TCs) developed during active months of August/September, were approximately 0.96 degrees Centigrade above the 1901-2017 average (warmest on record): about 0.42 degrees Centigrade from a long-term upward trend and the rest (around 80 percent) attributed to the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM). The contribution to the SST from the North Atlantic Oscillation over the EMDR was a weak warming, while that from ENSO was negligible. Nevertheless, ENSO, the NAO, and the AMM all contributed to favorable wind shear conditions, while the AMM also produced enhanced atmospheric instability. Compared with the strong hurricane years of 2005-2010, the ocean heat content (OHC) during 2017 was larger across the tropics, with higher SST anomalies over the EMDR and Caribbean Sea. On the other hand, the dynamical/thermodynamical atmospheric conditions, while favorable for enhanced TC activity, were less prominent than in 2005-2010 across the tropics. The results suggest that unusually warm SST in the EMDR together with the long fetch of the resulting storms in the presence of record-breaking OHC were key factors in driving the strong TC activity in 2017.
The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season was extremely active with six major hurricanes, the third most on record. The sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) over the eastern Main Development Region (EMDR), where many tropical cyclones (TCs) developed during active months of August/September, were ~0.96 C above the 1901-2017 average (warmest on record): about ~0.42 C from a long-term upward trend and the rest (~80%) attributed to the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM). The contribution to the SST from the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) over the EMDR was a weak warming, while that from El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was negligible. Nevertheless, ENSO, the NAO, and the AMM all contributed to favorable wind shear conditions, while the AMM also produced enhanced atmospheric instability. Compared with the strong hurricane years of 2005/2010, the ocean heat content (OHC) during 2017 was larger across the tropics, with higher SST anomalies over the EMDR and Caribbean Sea. On the other hand, the dynamical/thermodynamical atmospheric conditions, while favorable for enhanced TC activity, were less prominent than in 2005/2010 across the tropics. The results suggest that unusually warm SST in the EMDR together with the long fetch of the resulting storms in the presence of record-breaking OHC may be key factors in driving the strong TC activity in 2017.