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A Safer Nuclear Enterprise - Application to Nuclear Explosive Safety (NES)(U)

Activities and infrastructure that support nuclear weapons are facing significant challenges. Despite an admirable record and firm commitment to make safety a primary criterion in weapons design, production, handling, and deployment - there is growing apprehension about terrorist acquiring weapons or nuclear material. At the NES Workshop in May 2012, Scott Sagan, who is a proponent of the normal accident cycle, presented. Whether a proponent of the normal accident cycle or High Reliability Organizations - we have to be diligent about our safety record. Constant vigilance is necessary to maintain our admirable safety record and commitment to Nuclear Explosive Safety.

ACCIDENTS↗

135 Xe measurements with a two-element CZT-based radioxenon detector for nuclear explosion monitoring

Measurement of elevated concentrations of xenon radioisotopes ( 131m Xe, 133m Xe, 133 Xe and 135 Xe) in the atmosphere has been shown to be a very powerful method for verifying whether or not a detected explosion is nuclear in nature. These isotopes are among the few with enough mobility and with half-lives long enough to make their detection at long distances realistic. Existing radioxenon detection systems used by the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) suffer from problems such as complexity, need for high maintenance and memory effect. To study the response of CdZnTe (CZT) detectors to xenon radioisotopes and investigate whether it is capable of mitigating the afore-mentioned issues with the current radioxenon detection systems, a prototype detector utilizing two coplanar CZT detectors was built and tested at Oregon State University. The detection system measures xenon radioisotopes through beta-gamma coincidence technique by detecting coincidence events be-tween the two detectors. Here in this paper, we introduce the detector design and report our measurement results with radioactive lab sources and 135 Xe produced in the OSU TRIGA reactor. Minimum Detectable Concentration (MDC) for 135 Xe was calculated to be 1.47 ± 0.05 mBq/m 3 .

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Impact of environmental backgrounds on atmospheric monitoring of nuclear explosions

Radionuclide monitoring for nuclear explosions includes measuring radioactive aerosol and noble gas concentrations in the atmosphere. The International Monitoring System (IMS) of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) has made such measurements for decades, revealing much about how atmospheric radioactivity impacts the sensitivity of the network. For example, civilian emissions of radioiodine make a substantial regional impact, but a minor global impact, while civilian radioxenon emissions create major regional and complex global impacts. This example statement is strongly influenced by the minimum signal level anticipated to be interesting. The original design of the IMS anticipated relatively large signal levels, and the accomplished IMS network substantially meets or exceeds the sensitivity needed to detect those signal levels. Much lower signal levels can be motivated, which could require reconsideration of station sensitivity. Using measured and simulated background concentrations, various possible desired signal levels, and an innovative anomaly threshold, maps of sensitivity and a station ranking are developed for current and future stations. These provide a strong motivation for additional experimentation to learn about sources and the potential plusses of new technology.

Eslinger, Paul W.↗

Heterogeneous multiphase flow properties of volcanic rocks and implications for noble gas transport from underground nuclear explosions

Of interest to the Underground Nuclear Explosion Signatures Experiment are patterns and timing of explosion-generated noble gases that reach the land surface. The impact of potentially simultaneous flow of water and gas on noble gas transport in heterogeneous fractured rock is a current scientific knowledge gap. This article presents field and laboratory data to constrain and justify a triple continua conceptual model with multimodal multiphase fluid flow constitutive equations that represents host rock matrix, natural fractures, and induced fractures from past underground nuclear explosions (UNEs) at Aqueduct and Pahute Mesas, Nevada National Security Site, Nevada, USA. Capillary pressure from mercury intrusion and direct air–water measurements on volcanic tuff core samples exhibit extreme spatial heterogeneity (i.e., variation over multiple orders of magnitude). Petrographic observations indicate that heterogeneity derives from multimodal pore structures in ash-flow tuff components and post-depositional alteration processes. Comparisons of pre- and post-UNE samples reveal different pore size distributions that are due in part to microfractures. Capillary pressure relationships require a multimodal van Genuchten (VG) constitutive model to best fit the data. Relative permeability estimations based on unimodal VG fits to capillary pressure can be different from those based on bimodal VG fits, implying the choice of unimodal vs. bimodal fits may greatly affect flow and transport predictions of noble gas signatures. The range in measured capillary pressure and predicted relative permeability curves for a given lithology and between lithologies highlights the need for future modeling to consider spatially distributed properties.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

DATASET RELEASE AND QUALITY CONTROL REVIEW OF LIVERMORE NEVADA NETWORK (LNN) RECORDINGS OF A SUBSET OF NEVADA NUCLEAR SECURITY SITE NUCLEAR EXPLOSIONS FROM 1979 TO 1992.

Geophysical research on historical nuclear tests is an important aspect of future monitoring capabilities in seismic research. This research is challenging due to the limited number of digital seismic recordings during the peak of nuclear testing (1945-1992). These limited records are unique and non-reproducible data with potential high research impact. Releasing available nuclear explosion seismic records to the explosion monitoring community is thus of high value and is the motivation for this dataset release. The target of this effort was on compilation and quality control of regional seismic records of nuclear explosions recorded on Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory stations ELK, KNB, LAC, and MNV, known collectively as the Livermore National Network (LNN) (Figure 1). LNN was established in the early 1960s for the primary purpose of monitoring underground nuclear testing at the former Nevada Test Site (NTS), now known as the Nevada Nuclear Security Site (NNSS) following the signing of the Limited Test Ban Treaty (LTBT). LNN consisted initially of short-period vertical component Benioff’s recorded on film located at Mina, NV (MNV) and Kanab, Utah (KNB). LNN added two additional stations at Landers, CA (LAC) and Elko, NV (ELK) in 1967 and upgraded equipment to broadband seismometers recorded on frequency modulation (FM) tapes from 1967-1979, followed by digital recordings after 1979 (Jarpe, 1989). The digital recordings were on a variety of now obsolete media, including 9-track, Exabyte, and DAT tapes. Jarpe (1989) describes the seismic station instrumentation details over the period of deployment. LNN recorded valuable non-repeatable unique data of several hundreds of nuclear explosions at NNSS, as well as earthquakes and chemical and mining explosions (Walter, 2020). The details of these nuclear tests are provided in the Department of Energy Report NV-209 Rev 16 (DOE, 2015).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Proceedings of the 2011 Monitoring Research Review: Ground-Based Nuclear Explosion Monitoring Technologies

These proceedings contain papers prepared for the Monitoring Research Review 2011: Ground-Based Nuclear Explosion Monitoring Technologies, held 13-15 September, 2011 in Tucson, Arizona. These papers represent the combined research related to ground-based nuclear explosion monitoring funded by the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA), Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL), US Army Space and Missile Defense Command, Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO), National Science Foundation (NSF), and other invited sponsors. The scientific objectives of the research are to improve the United States' capability to detect, locate, and identify nuclear explosions. The purpose of the meeting is to provide the sponsoring agencies, as well as potential users, an opportunity to review research accomplished during the preceding year and to discuss areas of investigation for the coming year. For the researchers, it provides a forum for the exchange of scientific information toward achieving program goals, and an opportunity to discuss results and future plans. Paper topics include: seismic regionalization and calibration; detection and location of sources; wave propagation from source to receiver; the nature of seismic sources, including mining practices; hydroacoustic, infrasound, and radionuclide methods; on-site inspection; and data processing.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Forensic characterization of surrogate nuclear explosion debris: radiochemical and spectroscopic strategies for method validation

Surrogate nuclear explosion debris (SNED) has emerged as a critical platform for advancing post-detonation nuclear forensic analysis in the absence of readily accessible historic materials. SNED enables controlled investigation and validation of analytical methodologies used to interrogate the chemical, isotopic, radiological, and microstructural signatures preserved in nuclear explosion debris. This review presents an integrated assessment of destructive and non-destructive analytical techniques commonly employed within decision-driven nuclear forensic workflows. Each technique is discussed individually while highlighting how it contributes to different stages of post-detonation analysis. Core methods – including gamma and alpha spectrometry, ICP-MS, TIMS, SIMS, SEM-EDS, XRF, LIBS, vibrational spectroscopy, and X-ray absorption spectroscopy – are critically evaluated with respect to forensic maturity, information content, and matrix limitations. Emphasis is placed on the role of SNED in benchmarking multi-modal workflows and identifying gaps in reproducing heterogeneity, fractionation, and radiation-driven evolution relevant to forensic attribution.

X-ray spectroscopic methods↗

Quantifying the Potential of Argon Detection Capabilities for Nuclear Explosion Monitoring

Abstract Current noble gas detection systems for nuclear explosion monitoring are based on the detection of four radioxenon isotopes—Xe-131m, -133, -133m and -135. The data provided by radioxenon detection could be enhanced by other radionuclide signatures such as Ar-37. Activation of Ca-40 in rock by neutrons produces Ar-37, and monitoring for this additional nuclide could help distinguish detections of nuclear explosions from background sources, such as medical isotope production. This work studies the capabilities of a hypothetical argon detection network. A 10 kt explosion was modeled using MCNP and SCALE to determine the inventory of Ar-37 created in a representative granite rock layer, assuming either 0.1, 1 or 10% of the total inventory was released. The Ar-37 inventory was combined with atmospheric transport data from HYSPLIT compiled in a previous study, along with the detection limits of standard Ar-37 detection systems, to determine how many hypothetical monitoring stations would detect Ar-37 from an explosion. This method was repeated for 365 HYSPLIT data sets to create a year’s worth of hypothetical explosions, releases, and detections. The study quantified the average number of detections per release, the number of stations detecting Ar-37, and the possibility of detecting Ar-37 in coincidence with xenon.

37Ar↗

Laser Simulations of the Destructive Impact of Nuclear Explosions on Hazardous Asteroids

We present the results of preliminary experiments at laser facilities in which the processes of the undeniable destruction of stony asteroids (chondrites) in space by nuclear explosions on the asteroid surface are simulated based on the principle of physical similarity. We present the results of comparative gasdynamic computations of a model nuclear explosion on the surface of a large asteroid and computations of the impact of a laser pulse on a miniature asteroid simulator confirming the similarity of the key processes in the fullscale and model cases. The technology of fabricating miniature mockups with mechanical properties close to those of stony asteroids is described. For mini-mockups 4–10 mm in size differing by the shape and impact conditions, we have made an experimental estimate of the energy threshold for the undeniable destruction of a mockup and investigated the parameters of its fragmentation at a laser energy up to 500 J. The results obtained confirm the possibility of an experimental determination of the criteria for the destruction of asteroids of various types by a nuclear explosion in laser experiments. We show that the undeniable destruction of a large asteroid is possible at attainable nuclear explosion energies on its surface.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

In the nuclear explosion monitoring context, what is an anomaly?

Abstract In the early years of nuclear explosion monitoring, experts used downwind detections with meaningful ratios of radioactive species to identify an explosion. Today’s reality is sparse networks of radionuclide monitoring stations looking for weak signals. Analysts need to discriminate between industrial background radioactivity and nuclear explosion signals, even using the detection of one isotope. Aerosol and xenon measurements potentially related to nuclear tests in 2006 and 2013 announced by the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea and from worldwide civilian background radioactivity are considered when defining radionuclide detection anomalies to objectively guide the use of limited analyst resources and reduce the possibility of not detecting nuclear explosions.

Miley, Harry S.↗

Challenges in simulating ground interacting nuclear explosions

This paper summarizes recent above-ground nuclear explosion simulations as part of a broader effort to better characterize conditions within a fireball that may influence the chemical evolution of bomb materials and other materials entrained from the local explosion environment. A critical component of this work is validation against historic footage of atmospheric testing, requiring that we understand how the frequency-dependent sensitivity of the utilized film footage influences data captured in such images. We focus first on the early physics of a nuclear explosion in the atmosphere before discussing some of the technical challenges we seek to capture in late-time models that include more complex emplacement conditions and subsurface features. We discuss required physics packages (compressible hydrodynamics, radiation transport, as well as necessary ancillary tables such as equations of state (EOS) and opacities). Additionally, we note reasonable “shortcuts” one may make and their limitations, e.g., using ideal gas EOS, replacing spectrally resolved radiation with spectrally averaged radiation, and exchanging deterministic transport with diffusion. We then discuss an approach to achieving an equilibrated initial stress state for problems where buoyancy and subsurface lithostatic stress are important. Our methodology is presented in the context of LLNL’s ALE3D multiphysics code but may readily be implemented in other codes. In this paper, we start with a description of the challenges of NUDET simulations, followed by a presentation of the simulated intensity (flux) as it would appear on an analysis of the Dixie test. We then progressively introduce additional complexity in subsequent sections (near-surface burst and gravity initialization) before concluding.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Synthesis and characterization of surrogate nuclear explosion debris: urban glass matrix

Surrogate nuclear explosive debris was synthesized and characterized for major, minor, and trace elemental composition as well as uranium isotopics. The samples consisted of an urban glass matrix, equal masses soda lime and cement, doped with 500 ppm uranium with varying enrichments. The surface and cross section morphology were measured with SEM, and the major elemental composition was determined by XPS. LA-ICP-MS was used to measure the uranium isotopic abundance comparing different sampling techniques. Furthermore, the results provide an example of the utility of LA-ICP-MS for forensics applications.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

Delayed signatures of underground nuclear explosions

Radionuclide signals from underground nuclear explosions (UNEs) are strongly influenced by the surrounding hydrogeologic regime. One effect of containment is delay of detonation-produced radioxenon reaching the surface as well as lengthening of its period of detectability compared to uncontained explosions. Using a field-scale tracer experiment, we evaluate important transport properties of a former UNE site. Here, we observe the character of signals at the surface due to the migration of gases from the post-detonation chimney under realistic transport conditions. Background radon signals are found to be highly responsive to cavity pressurization suggesting that large local radon anomalies may be an indicator of a clandestine UNE. Computer simulations, using transport properties obtained from the experiment, track radioxenon isotopes in the chimney and their migration to the surface. They show that the chimney surrounded by a fractured containment regime behaves as a leaky chemical reactor regarding its effect on isotopic evolution introducing a dependence on nuclear yield not previously considered. This evolutionary model for radioxenon isotopes is validated by atmospheric observations of radioxenon from a 2013 UNE in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK). In conclusion, our model produces results similar to isotopic observations with nuclear yields being comparable to seismic estimates.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Improved performance comparisons of radioxenon systems for low level releases in nuclear explosion monitoring

The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty bans all nuclear tests and mandates development of verification measures to detect treaty violations. One verification measure is detection of radioactive xenon isotopes produced in the fission of actinides. The International Monitoring System (IMS) currently deploys automated radioxenon systems that can detect four radioxenon isotopes. Radioxenon systems with lower detection limits are currently in development. Historically, the sensitivity of radioxenon systems was measured by the minimum detectable concentration for each isotope. In this paper we analyze the response of radioxenon systems using rigorous metrics in conjunction with hypothetical representative releases indicative of an underground nuclear explosion instead of using only minimum detectable concentrations. Our analyses incorporate the impact of potential spectral interferences on detection limits and the importance of measuring isotopic ratios of the relevant radioxenon isotopes in order to improve discrimination from background sources particularly for low-level releases. To provide a sufficient data set for analysis, hypothetical representative releases are simulated every day from the same location for an entire year. The performance of three types of samplers are evaluated assuming they are located at 15 IMS radionuclide stations in the region of the release point. The performance of two IMS-deployed samplers and a next-generation system is compared with proposed metrics for detection and discrimination using representative releases from the nuclear test site used by the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.

Haas, Derek A.↗

Trends in Nuclear Explosion Monitoring Research & Development - A Physics Perspective

This document entitled “Trends in Nuclear Explosion Monitoring Research and Development – A Physics Perspective” reviews the accessible literature, as it relates to nuclear explosion monitoring and the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT, 1996), for four research areas: source physics (understanding signal generation), signal propagation (accounting for changes through physical media), sensors (recording the signals), and signal analysis (processing the signal). Over 40 trends are addressed, such as moving from 1D to 3D earth models, from pick-based seismic event processing to full waveform processing, and from separate treatment of mechanical waves in different media to combined analyses. Highlighted in the document for each trend are the value and benefit to the monitoring mission, key papers that advanced the science, and promising research and development for the future.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

A comparison of long-term 37 Ar and 39 Ar transport and implications for 39 Ar as a persistent indicator of underground nuclear explosions

Measurements were first made in 2016 of legacy 39 Ar gas from the decades-old Barnwell underground nuclear explosion site within the Nevada National Security Site. This has raised the question of the ubiquity of the radionuclide 39 Ar following underground nuclear explosions in general locations. This article presents a high-level evaluation of the scientific case for using 39 Ar as a long-term indicator of underground nuclear explosions. Assessment is made based on a broad set of assumptions to reasonably estimate the persistence of 39 Ar in the subsurface environment following an explosion to establish potential detectability years to decades after the originating event.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

A digital seismogram archive of nuclear explosion signals, recorded at the Borovoye Geophysical Observatory, Kazakhstan, from 1966 to 1996

Seismologists from Kazakhstan, Russia, and the United States have rescued the Soviet-era archive of nuclear explosion seismograms recorded at Borovoye in northern Kazakhstan during the period 1966–1996. The signals had been stored on about 8000 magnetic tapes, which were held at the recording observatory. After hundreds of man-years of work, these digital waveforms together with significant metadata are now available via the project URL, namely http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/pi/Monitoring/Data/ as a modern open database, of use to diverse communities. Three different sets of recording systems were operated at Borovoye, each using several different seismometers and different gain levels. For some explosions, more than twenty different channels of data are available. A first data release, in 2001, contained numerous glitches and lacked many instrument responses, but could still be used for measuring accurate arrival times and for comparison of the strengths of different types of seismic waves. The project URL also links to our second major data release, for nuclear explosions in Eurasia recorded in Borovoye, in which the data have been deglitched, all instrument responses have been included, and recording systems are described in detail. This second dataset consists of more than 3700 waveforms (digital seismograms) from almost 500 nuclear explosions in Eurasia, many of them recorded at regional distances. It is important as a training set for the development and evaluation of seismological methods of discriminating between earthquakes and underground explosions, and can be used for assessment of three-dimensional models of the Earth’s interior structure.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗