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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Revisiting the relationship between demand growth and electricity prices

Here, in this Commentary, we aim to clarify the relationship between electricity demand and prices in the short- and longer-term. We outline three dimensions that shape this relationship: system capacity utilization, system expansion costs, and cost allocation in the rate design process. We explain why demand growth has historically been largely associated with falling electricity prices and explore arguments that future C&I demand growth may increase prices.

O'Shaughnessy, Eric [Lawrence Berkeley National La↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating Interconnection Queue Impacts Using Hosting Capacity Analysis

The interconnection queue has been identified as a bottleneck in the efforts to shift the nations generation resources towards renewable sources and meet various state and federal goals. Efforts such as the interconnection innovation e-Xchange (i2X) are therefore trying to come up with ways in which the queue could be altered to make interconnection faster, cheaper, and fairer. This paper proposes using hosting capacity analysis methods to simulate the evolution of a power system as new resources are added. Modeling the interconnection process in this way enables simulation based study of various policy decisions for queue management and cost allocation. Sample results are presented to illustrate how some queue modifications might play out both in distribution and transmission systems.

Distributed Energy Resources, Interconnection↗
DOE OSTI2020

Management of Risk and Uncertainty Through Optimized Co-Operation of Transmission Systems and Microgrids with Responsive Loads (Final Report)

The evolution of the power system to the reliable, efficient and sustainable system of the future will involve development of both demand- and supply-side technology and operations. Ambitious national and state-level goals around the decarbonization of electricity relies on the integration of very high levels of renewable resources, most of which are variable and intermittent. The use of demand response is an ideal approach to counterbalance the intermittency of renewable generation and brings the consumer into the spotlight. Until recently, very little research had been conducted on the co-optimization of these two systems due to computational limitations. However, advances in computational capabilities, and the judicious use of decomposition methods and innovative approximation methods for high-dimension dynamic programming made this goal a viable objective for this project, leading to a fundamental shift in the ability to integrate and fully utilize demand-side resources. To this end, the modeling framework developed introduces a novel co-optimization framework, to include the operations of both the transmission and distribution systems (or microgrids) in operational decision making. This framework was used to analyze renewable and distributed generation along with responsive demand and to compare the capability of co-optimized systems to perform with higher levels of variable renewables. Results show that the use of a bi-level optimization approach is an appropriate structure, capable of co-optimizing a transmission system with multiple distribution systems and microgrids. While increasing the number of connected systems provides increasing flexibility for renewables integration this can also the economic benefits to the low-voltage subsystems with each additional system connected. Comparison of a traditional single-level decision structure with the co-optimization approach illustrates a reduction in overall system cost under co-optimization, while specific cost allocations to transmission and distribution systems are changed.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Management of Risk and Uncertainty Through Optimized Co-Operation of Transmission Systems and Microgrids With Responsive Loads (Final Report)

The evolution of the power system to the reliable, efficient and sustainable system of the future will involve development of both demand- and supply-side technology and operations. Ambitious national and state-level goals around the decarbonization of electricity relies on the integration of very high levels of renewable resources, most of which are variable and intermittent. The use of demand response is an ideal approach to counterbalance the intermittency of renewable generation and brings the consumer into the spotlight. Though individual consumers are interconnected at the low-voltage distribution system, these resources are typically modeled as variables at the transmission network level. Demand-side participation cannot be leveraged effectively without explicitly including the distribution system dynamics in the optimization-based wholesale market operations. This project grew from a vision for co-optimized interaction of distribution systems, or microgrids, with the high-voltage transmission system. In this framework, microgrids encompass consumers, distributed renewables and storage. The energy management system of the lower voltage system (distribution or microgrid) can also sell (buy) excess (necessary) energy from the transmission system. Until recently, very little research had been conducted on the co-optimization of these two systems due to computational limitations. However, advances in computational capabilities, and the judicious use of decomposition methods and innovative approximation methods for high-dimension dynamic programming made this goal a viable objective for this project, leading to a fundamental shift in the ability to integrate and fully utilize demand-side resources. To this end, the modeling framework developed introduces a novel co-optimization framework, to include the operations of both the transmission and distribution systems (or microgrids) in operational decision making. This framework was used to analyze renewable and distributed generation along with responsive demand and to compare the capability of co-optimized systems to perform with higher levels of variable renewables. An ideal microgrid is defined as an electric entity capable of operating in both interconnected (with the high-voltage grid) and islanded mode. As such, the microgrid should incorporate generating units (traditional units and intermittent) and if needed, exchange power with the high-voltage grid. The interplay between the microgrid and high-voltage grid motivated the development of the co-optimization approach to ensure efficient performance of the interconnected network. Results show that the use of a bi-level optimization approach is an appropriate structure, capable of co-optimizing a transmission system with multiple distribution systems and microgrids. While increasing the number of connected systems provides increasing flexibility for renewables integration this can also the economic benefits to the low-voltage subsystems with each additional system connected. Comparison of a traditional single-level decision structure with the co-optimization approach illustrates a reduction in overall system cost under co-optimization, while specific cost allocations to transmission and distribution systems are changed.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Waiting in Queue: A Historical Evaluation of Interconnection Policy

Both states and Independent System Operators (ISO)/Regional Transmission Organizations (RTO) have struggled with long wait times in interconnection queues. As a result, numerous reforms have been proposed to expedite the connection of new resources to the grid. This paper conducts a quantitative analysis of two of these policies: one providing detail hosting capacity information in Massachusetts, the other experimenting with cost allocation in New York. We find that both policies led to a statistically significant decrease in the times projects spend pending in interconnection queues, with New York seeing a small drop in days pending, and Massachusetts seeing a much larger one. We also include an analysis of how energy storage is impacts queue time in these states. These results can help inform regulators who are weighing reforms to interconnection policies, with the goal of reducing wait times.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evolving Competitive Markets in SAPP: Leveraging Competitive Wholesale Electricity Markets to Drive Renewable Generation Capacity in the Southern African Power Pool (SAPP)

The SADC region has significant natural resource potential to increase renewable energy generation, improve electricity reliability, and support economic development. This research finds an apparent lack of confidence from electricity infrastructure investors in SAPP wholesale electricity markets, which increases risk perception and lowers the likelihood of capital deployment. With respect to free market fundamentals, competitive market obstacles and renewable energy development obstacles are characterized. Stakeholders identified the top obstacles to well-functioning competitive markets as insufficient transmission infrastructure for interconnection and regional movement of electricity, dominance of national single-buyer markets, and lack of or weak nation-state regulatory frameworks. Stakeholders prioritized the top three obstacles for renewable energy development as a lack of viable commercial arrangements for variable renewable energy (VRE) balancing, lack of functional and consistent nation-level regulations, and higher project costs related to reliance on imported equipment. With respect to potential solution options, stakeholders prioritized the development of new cost allocation and finance methods to facilitate new transmission expansion, training to educate new or potential new market entrants on SAPP processes, as well as modeling and analysis of regional SAPP participation benefits disaggregated to the nation-state level. From these perspectives, this research identified strategy options for consideration including transitioning SAPP to a regional transmission operator (RTO) for operation and planning of cross-border transmission facilities and market administration, shifting operations of SAPP member transmission systems to Independent System Operators (ISOs), establishing a regional regulatory authority and enhancing market data transparency. Implementing these reforms is expected to be challenging, but not insurmountable, given the domestic political, legal, and jurisdictional complexities of the SADC region.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Distributed Energy Resource Interconnection Roadmap

Adopting strategic reforms to DER interconnection can help reduce interconnection delays, fairly allocate costs, improve transparency and equity, and support efficient and strategic investment in distribution and sub-transmission grids that can accommodate a rapidly evolving energy landscape. The Interconnection Innovation e-Xchange envisions this roadmap and its transmission system companion volume as collaborative resources to facilitate continued stakeholder discussions, problem-solving, and innovation as the U.S. works together to enable simpler, faster, and fairer interconnection of clean energy resources all while enhancing the reliability, resiliency, and security of our electric grid.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bridging the Gap for Powering Data Centers

The rapid expansion of data centers, primarily driven by artificial intelligence, is outpacing the adaptability of the U.S. electric grid. This report, developed by Idaho National Laboratory (INL) , presents a gap analysis of some of the infrastructure challenges associated with large-scale data center deployment. Drawing from a national workshop hosted by INL in October of 2025, the report synthesizes stakeholder insights, survey data, and technical discussions to identify critical barriers and research needs. Key findings highlight the growing preference for behind-the-meter generation, the perceived inadequacy of legacy interconnection processes, and the urgent need for improved coordination between utilities, regulators, and data center developers. Environmental concerns such as water use and noise pollution, as well as economic constraints like equipment lead times and cost allocation, are also explored. The report outlines national lab capabilities in modeling, simulation, and technical assistance, and proposes targeted R&D priorities to support resilient, scalable, and efficient integration of data centers into the grid.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Speed to Power: Solutions for Accelerating Large Load Connections

Rapid growth in demand from data centers and other large loads is creating a range of new challenges for electricity planners, investors, system operators, and regulators, leading to bottlenecks that have slowed connection of large loads to the electric grid. In response, innovative solutions for accelerating large load connections are beginning to emerge across the U.S. Drawing on an extensive document and literature review, this report identifies more than 40 potential solutions for accelerating large load connections, organized into five functional areas: load forecasting, interconnection, resource planning and procurement, markets and operations, and cost allocation and ratemaking. The five functional areas provide a framework for organizing challenges and solutions to large load connection bottlenecks.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Unlocking load growth at the grid edge: Practices for managing, recovering, and allocating distribution system investments

Utilities and utility regulators are preparing to make significant investments in the electricity distribution system driven by expected load growth in coming years and decades. Regulators will be tasked with vetting investment proposals and implementing cost recovery and allocation mechanisms. In particular, state regulators are anticipating the need to make proactive distribution system investments, building the capability to serve new load in advance of demand. This report focuses on load growth from homes and businesses that adopt electric vehicles and heat pump heating technologies. Through a review of legislation and regulatory dockets in a subset of states, we provide insights into emerging utility and regulatory practices to recover and allocate costs of electrification-driven distribution system investments necessary to accommodate these technologies. Our review focused on utility electrification programs, line extension policies, and proactive investments. Our report is largely descriptive, offering detailed information about approaches different state commissions and utilities have implemented to inform future decision-making.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Scaling Optimal Allocation of Cloud Resources Using Lagrange Relaxation

The rapid growth of Cloud Computing (CC) has increased the variety of computing resources, storage, and communication services that pose significant new challenges for the efficient use of cloud resources. The cost-efficient allocation of cloud resources has become a decisive premise for the adoption of CC services. The cost-efficient selection and scheduling of these resources to meet the demands of a scientific workflow is a challenging problem that is exacerbated by the inclusion of multiple CC providers. In this paper, we present a novel strategy for the cost-efficient selection of CC resources using Lagrange relaxation. Our approach is based on preselection of resources and demand decomposition to create a series of smaller sub-problems, which allow the estimation of the best cost-structures and selection of CC service providers for a subset of the time period of the planning horizon. Decomposition of the demand is achieved through the boundary analysis of a continuous relaxation of the problem. Using the metrics defined in terms of the cost and time of completion, we demonstrate excellent performance in relation to optimal solutions. Our method reduced the computational time from hours to seconds for a representative 36-month problem and provided high-quality solutions (< 0.05% relative error). Given the importance of selecting resources and scheduling complex scientific workflows, we believe that this novel strategy will be beneficial for many researchers and users of cloud computing resources.

De La Torre, Luis↗
DOE OSTI2026

Transforming E-Waste Into Strategic Resources: Techno-Economic Analysis of Gallium and By-products Recovery from LEDs via Bioleaching

The growing demand for gallium in optoelectronics and renewable energy applications raises concerns about supply security and production sustainability. This study evaluates the techno-economic feasibility of recovering gallium and by-products (copper and nickel) from waste GaN-based LEDs via bioleaching. A process flowsheet encompassing transportation, robotic disassembly, ball milling, bioleaching, solvent extraction/electrowinning, and refining was modeled. Based on mass balance analysis, more than 53 tons of LED waste are required annually to yield 1 kg of gallium alongside substantial copper and nickel co-products. Preliminary techno-economic analysis (TEA) shows an average total cost (ATC) of 6.84 USD/kg metal when costs are allocated by mass-weighted economic value (market price) fraction, corresponding to 6.75 USD/kg for copper, 15.91 USD/kg for nickel, and 470.95 USD/kg for gallium. For gallium, direct operational costs account for more than 70% of the cost. Monte Carlo simulations further quantify cost uncertainties under market price fluctuations. This work represents the first TEA of gallium recovery from GaN-based LEDs and highlights potential pathways for future cost reduction.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

California Price Response Potential Study

California's energy landscape is undergoing a significant transformation, driven by the increasing integration of renewable energy sources, the increased adoption of distributed energy resources, the electrification of end-use loads, and the growing need for grid efficiency. To address these challenges, recent revisions to the State’s Load Management Standards (LMS) require all of California’s large utilities and community choice aggregators (CCAs) to offer dynamic electricity pricing options to customers by 2027. Dynamic pricing, which involves varying electricity rates based on real-time supply and demand conditions, offers a promising solution for optimizing grid operations, reducing costs, and incentivizing efficient use of grid capacity. Effective implementation of dynamic pricing requires understanding the potential impacts on customer bills, system load, and the cost-effectiveness of automation technologies. This study aims to evaluate the load response of various end-use devices to hourly dynamic prices. The end-uses studied here are space cooling, space heating, water heating, crop irrigation, pool and spa pumps, and electric vehicle (EV) charging, all for both residential and commercial applications, except for crop irrigation. In 2030, these end uses are forecasted to account for 18% of annual electricity demand in the state, but 40% of demand in the peak net load hour. By modeling possible price-responsive load dispatch algorithms and assessing the resulting impacts on both individual bills and the overall grid, we seek to inform policymakers and utilities about the potential benefits and challenges associated with dynamic pricing, and considerations for the design of dynamic pricing tariffs. Additionally, we will explore the cost effectiveness of adopting automation technologies to enable devices to respond more effectively to real-time price signals. This study considers a range of price profiles, accounting for differences across utilities and customer classes, and presents scenarios for dynamic price design via variation in the percentage of total customer electric costs that are allocated dynamically (versus constituting a fixed portion of the hourly volumetric price). We present results focused primarily on 2030, forecasting electricity prices under both low and high-cost scenarios, to inform longer-term tariff design considerations. We design tariffs by starting with 2019 prices that were calculated according to CalFUSE guidance (CPUC, 2022) and that have been used in recent studies; these prices are all-in volumetric rates that vary by utility and are revenue-neutral to each customer class. They are developed by considering six electricity cost components that are allocated hourly based on system load indicators (gross and net load, and wholesale prices). These prices are forecasted to 2030 for low and high cost scenarios, considering recent trends in total electricity costs with and without years of substantial wildfire mitigation investments. These tariffs, which allocate all costs on an hourly basis, are considered our “Full” dynamic tariff design scenario, while two additional scenarios explore allocating a portion of costs as a flat volumetric charge: the “Medium” scenario allocates 50% of revenue dynamically (and keeps 50% flat), while the “Mild” scenario allocates 20% of revenue dynamically. The 20% dynamic allocation on the Mild scenario aims to represent a case where only the marginal operating costs of the grid are included in the dynamic price.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Mobilizing mine lands for biobased decarbonization strategies

Over 163 000 ha of mine lands in Pennsylvania (PA) have the potential to produce willow as a feedstock for renewable energy generation. Each year these lands could produce between 454 000 and 907 000 dry Mg of willow, which can be a feedstock for bioenergy (i.e., biopower) with carbon capture and sequestration (BECCS) or sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production. We used a spatially explicit model to explore cost-minimized allocation of willow biomass from abandoned mine lands (AML) to be used for BECCS or SAF production and to abate carbon dioxide. The results suggest that between 454 000 and 907 000 dry Mg of biomass can be produced on AML in PA at costs from $94 to $250 per dry Mg. This AML willow biomass could be combined with other available biomass and aggregated to ten facilities to produce 17.9 TWh of power; alternatively, it could produce 958 million liters of jet fuel, 638 million liters of renewable diesel, and 1.289 billion liters of naphtha, along with 0.735 TWh of electricity. From this analysis, in PA, under the BECCS pathway, up to 36 million Mg per year of CO2 could be abated at costs of up to $134 per Mg; under the SAF pathway, up to 17.5 million Mg per year of CO2 could be abated at costs up to $150 per Mg of CO2. The use of mine land willow as a supplemental feedstock for SAF and BECCS would need strong incentive programs if costs of production are to be comparable with production on agricultural land.

Wahlstrom, Mallory [Pennsylvania State University]↗
DOE OSTI2024

Proactive Regulatory Approaches to Electrification and Load Growth: Pre-read Document to Support the July 10-11 th Workshop

This document summarizes objectives and context related to a DOE-funded workshop on proactive regulatory approaches to electrification and load growth. It briefly summarizes some of the regulatory barriers to pursuing a proactive approach and some of the risks associated with such an approach. It then summarizes a selection of recent utility proposals and public utility commission actions related to proactive approaches.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Path to Clean Energy: Cross-Subsidization Concerns From Local Solar Development in Frankfort, Kentucky That Can Apply to Other Communities

Municipal electricity utilities and communities with public power are increasingly interested in the opportunities afforded by locally-sited solar projects. Understanding the allocation of costs and benefits of a solar project across affected entities and stakeholders such as customer types can be critical for community buy-in. This case study looked specifically at an analysis done for the City of Frankfort and how plans to meet 100% of city government electricity loads with renewable energy by 2023 could affect an all requirements contract the city's municipal utility has with a regional electricity provider. While the results are specific to Frankfort and the electricity contracts in place at the time of the study, it is an example of how the question of cross-subsidization can be addressed using a quantitative study, with the goal of increasing transparency and buy-in across multiple stakeholders.

community solar↗
DOE OSTI2026

Soil nutrients affect biomass allocation at the individual tree level in Populus_deltoides

The allocation of carbon (C) to tree roots has implication for forest productivity and soil C storage. Here, we elucidated the factors affecting absolute and relative production of resource-acquiring absorptive fine roots (AFR) and other tree organs. We assessed soil properties, leaf (Leaves), stem and branch (Stem-Br), coarse root (CR), transport fine root (TFR), and AFR biomass, production, and allocation and leaf litterfall and AFR and TFR turnover for 12 trees in a youngPopulus deltoides plantation. On a biomass basis, standing crop of AFRs was significantly related to that of TFRs, but both were independent of biomass of leaves, CRs and Stem-Brs. Production (standing crop + turnover) as a proportion of total biomass (allocation) highlighted significant relationships between AFR%, TFR%, and tree and soil characteristics. AFR% and TFR% were negatively correlated with Stem-Br%, Leaf%, and total tree production. Spatial variation in soil nutrient gradients altered allocation withinP. deltoides.AFR% and TFR% were negatively correlated with CEC, N, and Ca but positively correlated with soil P, Fe, and Na. Stem-Br% was positively correlated with CEC and soil N but negatively correlated with P. AFR and TFR growth and death are tightly coupled at the individual tree level. AFR allocation, but not standing biomass, is highly correlated with allocation to leaves, suggesting tight regulation of the growth of these two resource-acquiring organs. Lower soil N and Ca increased allocation to AFRs at the cost of leaves, whereas allocation to AFRs and leaves increased with soil P. Such changes in response to soil P may control whole-tree production in the current study.

Biomass allocation↗