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At least 37 records · Page 2

Associated with aerospace vehicles development of methodologies for the estimation of thermal properties

Thermal stress analyses are an important aspect in the development of aerospace vehicles at NASA-LaRC. These analyses require knowledge of the temperature distributions within the vehicle structures which consequently necessitates the need for accurate thermal property data. The overall goal of this ongoing research effort is to develop methodologies for the estimation of the thermal property data needed to describe the temperature responses of these complex structures. The research strategy undertaken utilizes a building block approach. The idea here is to first focus on the development of property estimation methodologies for relatively simple conditions, such as isotropic materials at constant temperatures, and then systematically modify the technique for the analysis of more and more complex systems, such as anisotropic multi-component systems. The estimation methodology utilized is a statistically based method which incorporates experimental data and a mathematical model of the system. Several aspects of this overall research effort were investigated during the time of the ASEE summer program. One important aspect involved the calibration of the estimation procedure for the estimation of the thermal properties through the thickness of a standard material. Transient experiments were conducted using a Pyrex standard at various temperatures, and then the thermal properties (thermal conductivity and volumetric heat capacity) were estimated at each temperature. Confidence regions for the estimated values were also determined. These results were then compared to documented values. Another set of experimental tests were conducted on carbon composite samples at different temperatures. Again, the thermal properties were estimated for each temperature, and the results were compared with values obtained using another technique. In both sets of experiments, a 10-15 percent off-set between the estimated values and the previously determined values was found. Another effort was related to the development of the experimental techniques. Initial experiments required a resistance heater placed between two samples. The design was modified such that the heater was placed on the surface of only one sample, as would be necessary in the analysis of built up structures. Experiments using the modified technique were conducted on the composite sample used previously at different temperatures. The results were within 5 percent of those found using two samples. Finally, an initial heat transfer analysis, including conduction, convection and radiation components, was completed on a titanium sandwich structural sample. Experiments utilizing this sample are currently being designed and will be used to first estimate the material's effective thermal conductivity and later to determine the properties associated with each individual heat transfer component.

Scott, Elaine P.↗

A Sequence of Outbursts from the Transient X-Ray Pulsar GS 0834-430

GS 0834-430, a 12.3 s accretion-powered pulsar, has been observed in seven outbursts with the BATSE large-area detectors on the Compton Gamma Ray Observatory. The first five outbursts observed by BATSE occurred at intervals of about 107 days, while the final two outbursts were separated by about 140 days. The photon energy spectrum, measured by Earth occultation in the 20 100 keV band, can be fitted by a power law with photon index alpha approximately equals -3.7 or by an exponential spectrum with temperature kT approximately equals 15 keV, with some variations within outbursts. The source has a low pulse fraction, less than or equal to 0.15 in the 20-50 keV band. We have observed significant temporal and energy-dependent variations in epoch folded pulse profiles. Because the intrinsic torque effects for this system are at least comparable to orbital effects, pulse timing analysis did not produce a unique orbital solution. However, confidence regions for the orbital elements yielded the following 1 sigma limits: orbital period P(sub orb) = 105.8 +/- 0.4 days and eccentricity 0.10 less than or approximately equals epsilon less than or approximately equals 0.17. GS 0834-430 is most likely a Be/X-ray binary.

Wilson, Colleen A.↗

Chandra X-Ray Observations of the Two Brightest Unidentified High Galactic Latitude Fermi-LAT Gamma-Ray Sources

We present Chandra ACIS-I X-ray observations of 0FGL J1311.9−3419 and 0FGL J1653.4−0200, the two brightest high Galactic latitude (absolute value (beta) >10 deg) gamma-ray sources from the three-month Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT) bright source list that are still unidentified. Both were also detected previously by EGRET, and despite dedicated multi-wavelength follow-up, they are still not associated with established classes of gamma-ray emitters like pulsars or radio-loud active galactic nuclei. X-ray sources found in the ACIS-I fields of view are cataloged, and their basic properties are determined. These are discussed as candidate counterparts to 0FGL J1311.9−3419 and 0FGL J1653.4−0200, with particular emphasis on the brightest of the 9 and 13 Chandra sources detected within the respective Fermi-LAT 95% confidence regions. Further follow-up studies, including optical photometric and spectroscopic observations, are necessary to identify these X-ray candidate counterparts in order to ultimately reveal the nature of these enigmatic gamma-ray objects.

galactic↗

Interpretable machine learning models classify minerals via spectroscopy

Developing methods to identify mineral species confidently and rapidly from Raman spectral analysis is critical to numerous fields. Traditionally, analysis relies on pattern matching the Raman spectrum of an unknown dataset with a supporting library of well-characterized spectral data, which may prove difficult for environmental samples that are poorly crystalline or phase mixtures. Here, we developed interpretable machine learning models that can classify uranium minerals by secondary oxyanion chemistry and other physicochemical properties based solely on Raman spectra. This new ML method produces a mineral profile of physical and chemical properties for an unknown sample and can rapidly classify or identify unknown minerals from Raman data, without the need for an exact pattern match in a spectral library. Training models are validated by 1. Strong correlation of high confidence model regions with published spectroscopic assignments and 2. Correct classification of a mineral not present in training data. Training data are from the Compendium of Uranium Raman and Infrared Experimental Spectra and available crystallographic information files within the open-source Smart Spectral Matching scientific framework. Physically meaningful classifier models can rapidly identify key structural and chemical information about unknown uranium minerals and the overall methodology is broadly applicable for mineral phases.

Machine learning↗

Computation of the intervals of uncertainties about the parameters found for identification

A modeling method to calculate the intervals of uncertainty for parameters found by identification is described. The region of confidence and the general approach to the calculation of these intervals are discussed. The general subprograms for determination of dimensions are described. They provide the organizational charts for the subprograms, the tests carried out and the listings of the different subprograms.

Mereau, P.↗

Cloud Feedback Uncertainty in the Equatorial Pacific Across CMIP6 Models

Cloud feedback is the largest uncertainty in estimating Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity. In this study we focus on the equatorial Pacific, where CMIP6 model cloud feedback spread is notably large. Cloud radiative effects in this region are relevant for the global climate. Our findings show that models predict a consistent shift towards the ascent regime in response to El Nino-like sea surface warming. Models diverge in terms of the radiative impact due to differences in cloud characteristics in ascent and subsidence regimes. Using the observed relationship between circulation regime and cloud radiative effect, we find a reduction in the regional mean cloud feedback estimate from 0.77 to 0.22 W m -2 K -1 , though this does not substantially lessen the model spread in total feedback. Pathways to reduce this spread include: improving confidence in the regional ocean warming pattern, and using observations and models to understand cloud type and circulation interactions.

CMIP6↗

SO2 Emissions and Lifetimes: Estimates from Inverse Modeling Using In Situ and Global, Space-Based (SCIAMACHY and OMI) Observations

Top-down constraints on global sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions are inferred through inverse modeling using SO2 column observations from two satellite instruments (SCIAMACHY and OMI). We first evaluated the S02 column observations with surface SO2 measurements by applying local scaling factors from a global chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) to SO2 columns retrieved from the satellite instruments. The resulting annual mean surface SO2 mixing ratios for 2006 exhibit a significant spatial correlation (r=0.86, slope=0.91 for SCIAMACHY and r=0.80, slope = 0.79 for OMI) with coincident in situ measurements from monitoring networks throughout the United States and Canada. We evaluate the GEOS-Chem simulation of the SO2 lifetime with that inferred from in situ measurements to verity the applicability of GEOS-Chem for inversion of SO2 columns to emissions. The seasonal mean SO2 lifetime calculated with the GEOS-Chem model over the eastern United States is 13 h in summer and 48 h in winter, compared to lifetimes inferred from in situ measurements of 19 +/- 7 h in summer and 58 +/- 20 h in winter. We apply SO2 columns from SCIAMACHY and OMI to derive a top-down anthropogenic SO2 emission inventory over land by using the local GEOS-Chem relationship between SO2 columns and emissions. There is little seasonal variation in the top-down emissions (<15%) over most major industrial regions providing some confidence in the method. Our global estimate for annual land surface anthropogenic SO2 emissions (52.4 Tg S/yr from SCIAMACHY and 49.9 Tg S / yr from OMI) closely agrees with the bottom-up emissions (54.6 Tg S/yr) in the GEOS-Chem model and exhibits consistency in global distributions with the bottom-up emissions (r = 0.78 for SCIAMACHY, and r = 0.77 for OMI). However, there are significant regional differences.

Lee, Chulkyu↗

Regional climates in the GISS general circulation model: Surface air temperature

One of the more viable research techniques into global climate change for the purpose of understanding the consequent environmental impacts is based on the use of general circulation models (GCMs). However, GCMs are currently unable to reliably predict the regional climate change resulting from global warming, and it is at the regional scale that predictions are required for understanding human and environmental responses. Regional climates in the extratropics are in large part governed by the synoptic-scale circulation and the feasibility of using this interscale relationship is explored to provide a way of moving to grid cell and sub-grid cell scales in the model. The relationships between the daily circulation systems and surface air temperature for points across the continental United States are first developed in a quantitative form using a multivariate index based on principal components analysis (PCA) of the surface circulation. These relationships are then validated by predicting daily temperature using observed circulation and comparing the predicted values with the observed temperatures. The relationships predict surface temperature accurately over the major portion of the country in winter, and for half the country in summer. These relationships are then applied to the surface synoptic circulation of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM control run, and a set of surface grid cell temperatures are generated. These temperatures, based on the larger-scale validated circulation, may now be used with greater confidence at the regional scale. The generated temperatures are compared to those of the model and show that the model has regional errors of up to 10 C in individual grid cells.

Hewitson, Bruce↗

The key role of forest disturbance in reconciling estimates of the northern carbon sink

Northern forests are an important carbon sink, but our understanding of the driving factors is limited due to discrepancies between dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and atmospheric inversions. We show that DGVMs simulate a 50% lower sink (1.1 ± 0.5 PgC yr –1 over 2001–2021) across North America, Europe, Russia, and China compared to atmospheric inversions (2.2 ± 0.6 PgC yr –1 ). We explain why DGVMs underestimate the carbon sink by considering how they represent disturbance processes, specifically the overestimation of fire emissions, and the lack of robust forest demography resulting in lower forest regrowth rates than observed. We reconcile net sink estimates by using alternative disturbance-related fluxes. We estimate carbon uptake through forest regrowth by combining satellite-derived forest age and biomass maps. We calculate a regrowth flux of 1.1 ± 0.1 PgC yr –1 , and combine this with satellite-derived estimates of fire emissions (0.4 ± 0.1 PgC yr –1 ), land-use change emissions from bookkeeping models (0.9 ± 0.2 PgC yr –1 ), and the DGVM-estimated sink from CO 2 fertilisation, nitrogen deposition, and climate change (2.2 ± 0.9 PgC yr –1 ). The resulting ‘bottom-up’ net flux of 2.1 ± 0.9 PgC yr –1 agrees with atmospheric inversions. The reconciliation holds at regional scales, increasing confidence in our results.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluating probabilistic deep learning methods for uncertainty quantification of temperature downscaling

Deep learning (DL) has emerged as a promising tool for downscaling coarse-resolution climate data to high-resolution outputs, enabling improved regional climate predictions. A critical aspect of DL-based downscaling is the incorporation of uncertainty quantification (UQ), which enhances the interpretability and reliability of predictions—key factors for climate risk assessment and decision-making. This study develops a DL model to downscale 2 m temperature across the contiguous United States using reanalysis datasets. We systematically evaluate three epistemic UQ methods—deep ensembles (DEns), Monte Carlo dropout (MCD), and Flipout—based on their probabilistic accuracy, downscaling performance, sensitivity to geographical features, and computational efficiency. Results indicate that MCD generally outperforms Flipout and DEns in terms of calibration and downscaling accuracy. However, DEns demonstrate lower calibration errors in coastal regions, indicating its higher confidence within these areas. Flipout, in contrast, is more sensitive to elevation gradients and exhibits higher calibration errors in mountainous regions. Hence, the choice of UQ method for this task depends on the specific requirements of the application. For applications that prioritize overall calibration, downscaling accuracy, and computational efficiency, MCD is a strong candidate. These findings highlight the importance of selecting UQ methods based on application-specific requirements, such as geographical context and computational constraints. By addressing the trade-offs between UQ methods, this study provides actionable insights for improving the reliability, scalability, and utility of DL-based downscaling in climate science.

Environmental sciences↗

X-ray Polarization Detection of Cassiopeia A with IXPE

We report on a ∼5σ detection of polarized 3–6 keV X-ray emission from the supernova remnant Cassiopeia A (Cas A) with the Imaging X-ray Polarimetry Explorer (IXPE). The overall polarization degree of 1.8% ± 0.3% is detected by summing over a large region, assuming circular symmetry for the polarization vectors. The measurements imply an average polarization degree for the synchrotron component of ∼2.5%, and close to 5% for the X-ray synchrotron-dominated forward shock region. These numbers are based on an assessment of the thermal and nonthermal radiation contributions, for which we used a detailed spatial-spectral model based on Chandra X-ray data. A pixel-by-pixel search for polarization provides a few tentative detections from discrete regions at the ∼ 3σ confidence level. Given the number of pixels, the significance is insufficient to claim a detection for individual pixels, but implies considerable turbulence on scales smaller than the angular resolution. Cas A's X-ray continuum emission is dominated by synchrotron radiation from regions within ≲1017 cm of the forward and reverse shocks. We find that (i) the measured polarization angle corresponds to a radially oriented magnetic field, similar to what has been inferred from radio observations; (ii) the X-ray polarization degree is lower than in the radio band (∼5%). Since shock compression should impose a tangential magnetic-field structure, the IXPE results imply that magnetic fields are reoriented within ∼1017 cm of the shock. If the magnetic-field alignment is due to locally enhanced acceleration near quasi-parallel shocks, the preferred X-ray polarization angle suggests a size of 3 × 1016 cm for cells with radial magnetic fields.

Polarimetry↗

Dual-Baseline Search for Active-to-Sterile Neutrino Oscillations in NOvA

We report a search for neutrino oscillations to sterile neutrinos under a model with three active and one sterile neutrinos (3+1 model). This analysis uses the NOvA detectors exposed to the NuMI beam, running in neutrino mode. The data exposure, 13.6 × 10 20 protons on target, doubles that previously analyzed by NOvA, and the analysis is the first to use 𝜈 𝜇 charged-current interactions in conjunction with neutral-current interactions. Neutrino samples in the near and far detectors are fitted simultaneously, enabling the search to be carried out over a Δ⁢𝑚$^{2}_{41}$ range extending 2 (3) orders of magnitude above (below) 1 eV 2 . NOvA finds no evidence for active-to-sterile neutrino oscillations under the 3+1 model at 90% confidence level. New limits are reported in multiple regions of parameter space, excluding some regions currently allowed by IceCube at 90% confidence level. We additionally set the most stringent limits for anomalous 𝜈 𝜏 appearance for Δ⁢𝑚$^{2}_{41}$ ≤ 3 eV 2 .

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Impacts of Intercontinental Transport of Anthropogenic Fine Particulate Matter on Human Mortality

Fine particulate matter with diameter of 2.5 microns or less (PM2.5) is associated with premature mortality and can travel long distances, impacting air quality and health on intercontinental scales. We estimate the mortality impacts of 20 % anthropogenic primary PM2.5 and PM2.5 precursor emission reductions in each of four major industrial regions (North America, Europe, East Asia, and South Asia) using an ensemble of global chemical transport model simulations coordinated by the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution and epidemiologically-derived concentration-response functions. We estimate that while 93-97 % of avoided deaths from reducing emissions in all four regions occur within the source region, 3-7 % (11,500; 95 % confidence interval, 8,800-14,200) occur outside the source region from concentrations transported between continents. Approximately 17 and 13 % of global deaths avoided by reducing North America and Europe emissions occur extraregionally, owing to large downwind populations, compared with 4 and 2 % for South and East Asia. The coarse resolution global models used here may underestimate intraregional health benefits occurring on local scales, affecting these relative contributions of extraregional versus intraregional health benefits. Compared with a previous study of 20 % ozone precursor emission reductions, we find that despite greater transport efficiency for ozone, absolute mortality impacts of intercontinental PM2.5 transport are comparable or greater for neighboring source-receptor pairs, due to the stronger effect of PM2.5 on mortality. However, uncertainties in modeling and concentration-response relationships are large for both estimates.

human health↗

Search for a Sub-eV Sterile Neutrino Using Daya Bay’s Full Dataset

This Letter presents results of a search for the mixing of a sub-eV sterile neutrino with three active neutrinos based on the full data sample of the Daya Bay Reactor Neutrino Experiment, collected during 3158 days of detector operation, which contains 5.55 × 106 reactor $\overline{v}$ e candidates identified as inverse beta-decay interactions followed by neutron capture on gadolinium. The analysis benefits from a doubling of the statistics of our previous result and from improvements of several important systematic uncertainties. No significant oscillation due to mixing of a sub-eV sterile neutrino with active neutrinos was found. Exclusion limits are set by both Feldman-Cousins and CLs methods. Light sterile neutrino mixing with sin 2⁡ 2⁢θ 14 ≳ 0.01 can be excluded at 95% confidence level in the region of 0.01 eV 2 ≲ |Δ⁢$m$$^{2}_{41}$| ≲ 0.1 eV 2 . This result represents the world-leading constraints in the region of 2 × 10 –4 eV 2 ≲ |Δ⁢$m$$^{2}_{41}$| ≲ 0.2 eV 2 .

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Nonphotochemical quenching kinetics GWAS in sorghum identifies genes that may play conserved roles in maize and Arabidopsis thaliana photoprotection

SUMMARY Photosynthetic organisms must cope with rapid fluctuations in light intensity. Nonphotochemical quenching (NPQ) enables the dissipation of excess light energy as heat under high light conditions, whereas its relaxation under low light maximizes photosynthetic productivity. We quantified variation in NPQ kinetics across a large sorghum ( Sorghum bicolor ) association panel in four environments, uncovering significant genetic control for NPQ. A genome‐wide association study (GWAS) confidently identified three unique regions in the sorghum genome associated with NPQ and suggestive associations in an additional 61 regions. We detected strong signals from the sorghum ortholog of Arabidopsis thaliana Suppressor Of Variegation 3 ( SVR3 ) involved in plastid–nucleus signaling. By integrating GWAS results for NPQ across maize ( Zea mays ) and sorghum‐association panels, we identified a second gene, Non‐yellowing 1 ( NYE1 ), originally studied by Gregor Mendel in pea ( Pisum sativum ) and involved in the degradation of photosynthetic pigments in light‐harvesting complexes. Analysis of nye1 insertion alleles in A. thaliana confirmed the effect of this gene on NPQ kinetics in eudicots. We extended our comparative genomics GWAS framework across the entire maize and sorghum genomes, identifying four additional loci involved in NPQ kinetics. These results provide a baseline for increasing the accuracy and speed of candidate gene identification for GWAS in species with high linkage disequilibrium.

Plant Sciences↗

The inner zone electron model AE-5

A description is given of the work performed in the development of the inner radiation zone electron model, AE-5. A complete description of the omnidirectional flux model is given for energy thresholds E sub T in the range 4.0 E sub T/(MeV) 0.04 and for L values in the range 2.8 L 1.2 for an epoch of October 1967. Confidence codes for certain regions of B-L space and certain energies are given based on data coverage and the assumptions made in the analysis. The electron model programs that can be supplied to a user are referred to. One of these, a program for accessing the model flux at arbitrary points in B-L space and arbitrary energies, includes the latest outer zone electron model and proton model. The model AE-5, is based on data from five satellites, OGO 1, OGO 3, 1963-38C, OV3-3, and Explorer 26, spanning the period December 1964 to December 1967.

Teague, M. J.↗

Tracking 3-D body motion for docking and robot control

An advanced method of tracking three-dimensional motion of bodies has been developed. This system has the potential to dynamically characterize machine and other structural motion, even in the presence of structural flexibility, thus facilitating closed loop structural motion control. The system's operation is based on the concept that the intersection of three planes defines a point. Three rotating planes of laser light, fixed and moving photovoltaic diode targets, and a pipe-lined architecture of analog and digital electronics are used to locate multiple targets whose number is only limited by available computer memory. Data collection rates are a function of the laser scan rotation speed and are currently selectable up to 480 Hz. The tested performance on a preliminary prototype designed for 0.1 in accuracy (for tracking human motion) at a 480 Hz data rate includes a worst case resolution of 0.8 mm (0.03 inches), a repeatability of plus or minus 0.635 mm (plus or minus 0.025 inches), and an absolute accuracy of plus or minus 2.0 mm (plus or minus 0.08 inches) within an eight cubic meter volume with all results applicable at the 95 percent level of confidence along each coordinate region. The full six degrees of freedom of a body can be computed by attaching three or more target detectors to the body of interest.

Donath, M.↗

Prediction of Coronal Mass Ejections From Vector Magnetograms: Quantitative Measures as Predictors

We derived two quantitative measures of an active region's global nonpotentiality from the region's vector magnetogram, 1) the net current (I(sub N)), and 2) the length of strong-shear, strong-field main neutral line (Lss), and used these two measures in a pilot study of the CME productivity of 4 active regions. We compared the global nonpotentiality measures to the active regions' CME productivity determined from GOES and Yohkoh/SXT observations. We found that two of the active regions were highly globally nonpotential and were CME productive, while the other two active regions had little global nonpotentiality and produced no CMEs. At the Fall 2000 AGU, we reported on an expanded study (12 active regions and 17 magnetograms) in which we evaluated four quantitative global measures of an active region's magnetic field and compared these measures with the CME productivity. The four global measures (all derived from MSFC vector magnetograms) included our two previous measures (I(sub N) and L(sub ss)) as well as two new ones, the total magnetic flux (PHI) (a measure of an active region's size), and the normalized twist (alpha (bar)= muIN/PHI). We found that the three quantitative measures of global nonpotentiality (I(sub N), L(sub ss), alpha (bar)) were all well correlated (greater than 99% confidence level) with an active region's CME productivity within plus or minus 2 days of the day of the magnetogram. We will now report on our findings of how good our quantitative measures are as predictors of active-region CME productivity, using only CMEs that occurred after the magnetogram. We report the preliminary skill test of these quantitative measures as predictors. We compare the CME prediction success of our quantitative measures to the CME prediction success based on an active region's past CME productivity. We examine the cases of the handful of false positive and false negatives to look for improvements to our predictors. This work is funded by NSF through the Space Weather Program and by NASA through the Solar Physics Supporting Research and Technology Program.

Falconer, D. A.↗