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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1982

A Poisson process approximation for generalized K-5 confidence regions

One-sided confidence regions for continuous cumulative distribution functions are constructed using empirical cumulative distribution functions and the generalized Kolmogorov-Smirnov distance. The band width of such regions becomes narrower in the right or left tail of the distribution. To avoid tedious computation of confidence levels and critical values, an approximation based on the Poisson process is introduced. This aproximation provides a conservative confidence region; moreover, the approximation error decreases monotonically to 0 as sample size increases. Critical values necessary for implementation are given. Applications are made to the areas of risk analysis, investment modeling, reliability assessment, and analysis of fault tolerant systems.

Arsham, H.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Confidence regions of planar cardiac vectors

A method for plotting the confidence regions of vectorial data obtained in electrocardiology is presented. The 90%, 95% and 99% confidence regions of cardiac vectors represented in a plane are obtained in the form of an ellipse centered at coordinates corresponding to the means of a sample selected at random from a bivariate normal distribution. An example of such a plot for the frontal plane QRS mean electrical axis for 80 horses is also presented.

Dubin, S.↗
DOE OSTI2016

THE MEASUREMENT, TREATMENT, AND IMPACT OF SPECTRAL COVARIANCE AND BAYESIAN PRIORS IN INTEGRAL -FIELD SPECTROSCOPY OF EXOPLANETS

The recovery of an exoplanet’s atmospheric parameters from its spectrum requires accurate knowledge of the spectral errors and covariances. Unfortunately, the complex image processing used in high-contrast integral-field spectrograph (IFS) observations generally produces spectral covariances that are poorly understood and often ignored. In this work, we show how to measure the spectral errors and covariances and include them self-consistently in parameter retrievals. By combining model exoplanet spectra with a realistic noise model generated from the Gemini Planet Imager (GPI) early science data, we show that ignoring spectral covariance in high-contrast IFS data can both bias inferred parameters and lead to unreliable confidence regions on those parameters. This problem is made worse by the common practice of scaling the χ {sup 2} per degree of freedom to unity; the input parameters then fall outside the 95% confidence regions in as many as ∼80% of noise realizations. The biases we observe can approach the typical levels of precision achieved in high-contrast spectroscopy. Accounting for realistic priors in fully Bayesian retrievals can also have a significant impact on the inferred parameters. Plausible priors on effective temperature and surface gravity can vary by an order of magnitude across the confidence regions appropriate for objects with weak age constraints; priors for objects with good age constraints are dominated by modeling uncertainties. Our methods are directly applicable to existing high-contrast IFSs including GPI and SPHERE, as well as upcoming instruments like CHARIS and, ultimately, WFIRST-AFTA.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Seismic Moment Tensor Screening on the Hypersphere

Source type screening based on the seismic moment tensor is investigated on the hypersphere, specifically the 5-sphere S 5 of 6-degree unit vectors representing the normalized symmetric moment tensor. The sample of moment tensors from an explosion dataset is unimodal in S 5 and can be parameterized by the von Mises - Fisher distribution. Screening is then framed using the confidence region of the explosion population mean unit vector. A conservative screen using the 99.9% confidence region is proposed such that an event with an angle on the hypersphere greater than 30.57° from the mean unit moment tensor is screened out. We apply the screen to the September 2017 DPRK explosion and subsequent collapse, and show that the collapse screens out.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2005

Program for Weibull Analysis of Fatigue Data

A Fortran computer program has been written for performing statistical analyses of fatigue-test data that are assumed to be adequately represented by a two-parameter Weibull distribution. This program calculates the following: (1) Maximum-likelihood estimates of the Weibull distribution; (2) Data for contour plots of relative likelihood for two parameters; (3) Data for contour plots of joint confidence regions; (4) Data for the profile likelihood of the Weibull-distribution parameters; (5) Data for the profile likelihood of any percentile of the distribution; and (6) Likelihood-based confidence intervals for parameters and/or percentiles of the distribution. The program can account for tests that are suspended without failure (the statistical term for such suspension of tests is "censoring"). The analytical approach followed in this program for the software is valid for type-I censoring, which is the removal of unfailed units at pre-specified times. Confidence regions and intervals are calculated by use of the likelihood-ratio method.

Krantz, Timothy L.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Search for CP violation in t$\overline{\textrm{t}}$H and tH production in multilepton channels in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV

The charge-parity (CP) structure of the Yukawa interaction between the Higgs (H) boson and the top quark is measured in a data sample enriched in the t$\overline{t}$H and tH associated production, using 138 fb -1 of data collected in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV by the CMS experiment at the CERN LHC. The study targets events where the H boson decays via H → WW or H → ττ and the top quarks decay via t → Wb: the W bosons decay either leptonically or hadronically, and final states characterized by the presence of at least two leptons are studied. Machine learning techniques are applied to these final states to enhance the separation of CP -even from CP -odd scenarios. Two-dimensional confidence regions are set on $κ$ t and $\widetilde{k}$t, which are respectively defined as the CP -even and CP -odd top-Higgs Yukawa coupling modifiers. No significant fractional CP -odd contributions, parameterized by the quantity |$f^{Htt}_{CP}$| are observed; the parameter is determined to be |$f^{Htt}_{CP}$| = 0.59 with an interval of (0.24, 0.81) at 68% confidence level. The results are combined with previous results covering the H → ZZ and H → γγ decay modes, yielding two- and one-dimensional confidence regions on $κ$ t and $\widetilde{k}$t, while |$f^{Htt}_{CP}$| is determined to be |$f^{Htt}_{CP}$| = 0.28 with an interval of |$f^{Htt}_{CP}$| < 0.55 at 68% confidence level, in agreement with the standard model CP -even prediction of |$f^{Htt}_{CP}$| = 0.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
NASA NTRS1998

The Error Distribution of BATSE GRB Location

We develop empirical probability models for BATSE GRB location errors by a Bayesian analysis of the separations between BATSE GRB locations and locations obtained with the InterPlanetary Network (IPN). Models are compared and their parameters estimated using 394 GRBs with single IPN annuli and 20 GRBs with intersecting IPN annuli. Most of the analysis is for the 4B (rev) BATSE catalog; earlier catalogs are also analyzed. The simplest model that provides a good representation of the error distribution has 78% of the locations in a 'core' term with a systematic error of 1.85 degrees and the remainder in an extended tail with a systematic error of 5.36 degrees, implying a 68% confidence region for bursts with negligible statistical errors of 2.3 degrees. There is some evidence for a more complicated model in which the error distribution depends on the BATSE datatype that was used to obtain the location. Bright bursts are typically located using the CONT datatype, and according to the more complicated model, the 68% confidence region for CONT-located bursts with negligible statistical errors is 2.0 degrees.

Briggs, Michael S.↗
DOE OSTI2016

Hierarchical optimization for neutron scattering problems

We present a scalable optimization method for neutron scattering problems that determines confidence regions of simulation parameters in lattice dynamics models used to fit neutron scattering data for crystalline solids. The method uses physics-based hierarchical dimension reduction in both the computational simulation domain and the parameter space. We demonstrate for silicon that after a few iterations the method converges to parameters values (interatomic force-constants) computed with density functional theory simulations.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
NASA NTRS1979

Parameter estimation in X-ray astronomy using maximum likelihood

Methods of estimation of parameter values and confidence regions by maximum likelihood and Fisher efficient scores starting from Poisson probabilities are developed for the nonlinear spectral functions commonly encountered in X-ray astronomy. It is argued that these methods offer significant advantages over the commonly used alternatives called minimum chi-squared because they rely on less pervasive statistical approximations and so may be expected to remain valid for data of poorer quality. Extensive numerical simulations of the maximum likelihood method are reported which verify that the best-fit parameter value and confidence region calculations are correct over a wide range of input spectra.

Wachter, K.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Measurements of the E-mode polarization and temperature-E-mode correlation of the CMB from SPT-3G 2018 data

We present measurements of the E -mode ( E E ) polarization power spectrum and temperature- E -mode ( T E ) cross-power spectrum of the cosmic microwave background using data collected by SPT-3G, the latest instrument installed on the South Pole Telescope. This analysis uses observations of a 1500 deg 2 region at 95, 150, and 220 GHz taken over a four-month period in 2018. We report binned values of the E E and T E power spectra over the angular multipole range 300 ≤ ℓ < 3000 , using the multifrequency data to construct six semi-independent estimates of each power spectrum and their minimum-variance combination. These measurements improve upon the previous results of SPTpol across the multipole ranges 300 ≤ ℓ ≤ 1400 for E E and 300 ≤ ℓ ≤ 1700 for T E , resulting in constraints on cosmological parameters comparable to those from other current leading ground-based experiments. We find that the SPT-3G data set is well fit by a Λ CDM cosmological model with parameter constraints consistent with those from Planck and SPTpol data. From SPT-3G data alone, we find H 0 = 68.8 ± 1.5 km s - 1 Mpc - 1 and σ 8 = 0.789 ± 0.016 , with a gravitational lensing amplitude consistent with the Λ CDM prediction ( A L = 0.98 ± 0.12 ). We combine the SPT-3G and the Planck data sets and obtain joint constraints on the Λ CDM model. The volume of the 68% confidence region in six-dimensional Λ CDM parameter space is reduced by a factor of 1.5 compared to Planck-only constraints, with no significant shifts in central values. We note that the results presented here are obtained from data collected during just half of a typical observing season with only part of the focal plane operable, and that the active detector count has since nearly doubled for observations made with SPT-3G after 2018.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

CONSTRAINTS ON NON-FLAT COSMOLOGIES WITH MASSIVE NEUTRINOS AFTER PLANCK 2015

We investigate two dark energy cosmological models (i.e., the ΛCDM and ϕ CDM models) with massive neutrinos assuming two different neutrino mass hierarchies in both the spatially flat and non-flat scenarios, where in the ϕ CDM model the scalar field possesses an inverse power-law potential, V ( ϕ ) ∝ ϕ {sup −} {sup α} ( α > 0). Cosmic microwave background data from Planck 2015, baryon acoustic oscillation data from 6dFGS, SDSS-MGS, BOSS-LOWZ and BOSS CMASS-DR11, the joint light-curve analysis compilation of SNe Ia apparent magnitude observations, and the Hubble Space Telescope H {sub 0} prior, are jointly employed to constrain the model parameters. We first determine constraints assuming three species of degenerate massive neutrinos. In the spatially flat (non-flat) ΛCDM model, the sum of neutrino masses is bounded as Σ m {sub ν} < 0.165(0.299) eV at 95% confidence level (CL). Correspondingly, in the flat (non-flat) ϕ CDM model, we find Σ m {sub ν} < 0.164(0.301) eV at 95% CL. The inclusion of spatial curvature as a free parameter results in a significant broadening of confidence regions for Σ m {sub ν} and other parameters. In the scenario where the total neutrino mass is dominated by the heaviest neutrino mass eigenstate, we obtain similar conclusions to those obtained in the degenerate neutrino mass scenario. In addition, the results show that the bounds on Σ m {sub ν} based on two different neutrino mass hierarchies have insignificant differences in the spatially flat case for both the ΛCDM and ϕ CDM models; however, the corresponding differences are larger in the non-flat case.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Asymmetric errors

We present a procedure for handling asymmetric errors. Many results in particle physics are presented as values with different positive and negative errors, and there is no consistent procedure for handling them. We consider the difference between errors quoted, using pdfs and using likelihoods, and the difference between the rms spread of a measurement and the 68% central confidence region. We provide a comprehensive analysis of the possibilities, and software tools to enable their use.

Asymmetric↗
NASA NTRS2018

Decadal Seasonal Shifts of Precipitation and Temperature in TRMM and AIRS Data

We present results from an analysis of seasonal phase shifts in the global precipitation and surface temperatures. We use data from the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) Multi-satellite Precipitation Algorithm (TMPA), and the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) on Aqua satellite, all hosted at NASA Goddard Earth Science Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC). We explore the information content and data usability by first aggregating daily grids from the entire records of both missions to pentad (5-day) series which are then processed using Singular Value Decomposition approach. A strength of this approach is the normalized principal components that can then be easily converted from real to complex time series. Thus, we can separate the most informative, the seasonal, components and analyze unambiguously for potential seasonal phase drifts. TMPA and AIRS records represent correspondingly 20 and 15 years of data, which allows us to run simple “phase learning†from the first 5 years of records and use it as reference. The most recent 5 years are then phase-compared with the reference. We demonstrate that the seasonal phase of global precipitation and surface temperatures has been stable in the past two decades. However, a small global trend of delayed precipitation, and earlier arrival of surface temperatures seasons, are detectable at 95% confidence level. Larger phase shifts are detectable at regional level, in regions recognizable from the Eigen vectors to having strong seasonal patterns. For instance, in Central North America, including the North American Monsoon region, confident phase shifts of 1-2 days per decade are detected at 95% confidence level. While seemingly symbolic, these shifts are indicative of larger changes in the Earth Climate System. We thus also demonstrate a potential usability scenario of Earth Science Data Records curated at the NASA GES DISC in partnership with Earth Science Missions.

surface temperatures↗
NASA NTRS2012

Fermi Large Area Telescope Second Source Catalog

We present the second catalog of high-energy gamma-ray sources detected by the Large Area Telescope (LAT), the primary science instrument on the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope (Fermi), derived from data taken during the first 24 months of the science phase of the mission, which began on 2008 August 4. Source detection is based on the average flux over the 24-month period. The Second Fermi-LAT catalog (2FGL) includes source location regions, defined in terms of elliptical fits to the 95% confidence regions and spectral fits in terms of power-law, exponentially cutoff power-law, or log-normal forms. Also included are flux measurements in 5 energy bands and light curves on monthly intervals for each source. Twelve sources in the catalog are modeled as spatially extended. We provide a detailed comparison of the results from this catalog with those from the first Fermi-LAT catalog (1FGL). Although the diffuse Galactic and isotropic models used in the 2FGL analysis are improved compared to the 1FGL catalog, we attach caution flags to 162 of the sources to indicate possible confusion with residual imperfections in the diffuse model. The 2FGL catalog contains 1873 sources detected and characterized in the 100 11eV to 100 GeV range of which we consider 127 as being firmly identified and 1171 as being reliably associated with counterparts of known or likely gamma-ray-producing source classes.

Nolan, P. L.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Monte Carlo simulation of errors in the anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility - A second-rank symmetric tensor

Monte Carlo perturbations of synthetic tensors to evaluate the Hext/Jelinek elliptical confidence regions for anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility (AMS) eigenvectors are used. When the perturbations are 33 percent of the minimum anisotropy, both the shapes and probability densities of the resulting eigenvector distributions agree with the elliptical distributions predicted by the Hext/Jelinek equations. When the perturbation size is increased to 100 percent of the minimum eigenvalue difference, the major axis of the 95 percent confidence ellipse underestimates the observed eigenvector dispersion by about 10 deg. The observed distributions of the principal susceptibilities (eigenvalues) are close to being normal, with standard errors that agree well with the calculated Hext/Jelinek errors. The Hext/Jelinek ellipses are also able to describe the AMS dispersions due to instrumental noise and provide reasonable limits for the AMS dispersions observed in two Hawaiian basaltic dikes. It is concluded that the Hext/Jelinek method provides a satisfactory description of the errors in AMS data and should be a standard part of any AMS data analysis.

Lienert, Barry R.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Relationship of Interplanetary Shock Micro and Macro Characteristics: A Wind Study

The non-linear least squared MHD fitting technique of Szabo 11 9941 has been recently further refined to provide realistic confidence regions for interplanetary shock normal directions and speeds. Analyzing Wind observed interplanetary shocks from 1995 to 200 1, macro characteristics such as shock strength, Theta Bn and Mach numbers can be compared to the details of shock micro or kinetic structures. The now commonly available very high time resolution (1 1 or 22 vectors/sec) Wind magnetic field data allows the precise characterization of shock kinetic structures, such as the size of the foot, ramp, overshoot and the duration of damped oscillations on either side of the shock. Detailed comparison of the shock micro and macro characteristics will be given. This enables the elucidation of shock kinetic features, relevant for particle energization processes, for observations where high time resolution data is not available. Moreover, establishing a quantitative relationship between the shock micro and macro structures will improve the confidence level of shock fitting techniques during disturbed solar wind conditions.

Szabo, Adam↗
DOE OSTI2021

A statistical analysis of the COHERENT data and applications to new physics

The observation of coherent elastic neutrino nucleus scattering (CEvNS) by the COHERENT collaboration in 2017 has opened a new window to both test Standard Model predictions at relatively low energies and probe new physics scenarios. Our investigations show, however, that a careful treatment of the statistical methods used to analyze the data is essential to derive correct constraints and bounds on new physics parameters. In this manuscript we perform a detailed analysis of the publicly available COHERENT CsI data making use of all available background data. We point out that Wilks’ theorem is not fulfilled in general and a calculation of the confidence regions via Monte Carlo simulations following a Feldman-Cousins procedure is necessary. As an example for the necessity of this approach to test new physics scenarios we quantify the allowed ranges for several scenarios with neutrino non-standard interactions. Furthermore, we provide accompanying code to enable an easy implementation of other new physics scenarios as well as data files of our results.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗