Polynomial Chaos Expansion for Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis of Integral Experiment Benchmark Evaluations
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Lutz, Elijah [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-NM↗
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From Chaos to Clarity: Autonomous Materials Discovery for Extreme Environments
The pursuit of advanced functional materials for energy applications demands an understanding of their behavior under the most challenging conditions. Extreme environments, characterized by intense radiation, high temperatures, and corrosive chemistries, push materials to their limits, often revealing unexpected behaviors and degradation pathways. Traditional materials research approaches, relying on trial-and-error experimentation, are often slow and resource-intensive, ill-suited to the complexities of extreme environments. This talk will explore the transformative potential of autonomous materials science in revolutionizing our understanding of materials synthesis and degradation in extreme environments. By integrating advanced microscopy techniques, artificial intelligence, and robotic experimentation, we can accelerate the discovery and design of resilient materials for a sustainable future. The presentation will highlight recent breakthroughs in autonomous microscopy, computer vision, and machine learning, showcasing their ability to unravel complex material transformations at the atomic scale. The talk will also delve into the challenges and opportunities associated with deploying autonomous systems to probe extreme environments, emphasizing the importance of robust algorithms, real-time data analysis, and adaptive experimentation. Our ultimate goal is to empower scientists with unprecedented capabilities to explore, understand, and engineer materials that can withstand the harshest conditions, paving the way for innovations in energy, aerospace, and beyond.
artificial intelligence↗
Polynomial Chaos Expansion for Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis of Integral Experiment Benchmark Evaluations
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
Lutz, Elijah [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-NM↗
Krylov complexity in mixed phase space
We investigate the Krylov complexity of thermofield double states in systems with mixed phase space, uncovering a direct correlation with the Brody distribution, which interpolates between Poisson and Wigner statistics. Our analysis spans two-dimensional random matrix models featuring (I) GOE-Poisson and (II) GUE-Poisson transitions and extends to higher-dimensional cases, including a stringy matrix model (GOE-Poisson) and the mass-deformed SYK model (GUE-Poisson). Krylov complexity consistently emerges as a reliable marker of quantum chaos, displaying a characteristic peak in the chaotic regime that gradually diminishes as the Brody parameter approaches zero, signaling a shift toward integrability. These results establish Krylov complexity as a powerful diagnostic of quantum chaos and highlight its interplay with eigenvalue statistics in mixed phase systems.
chaos & nonlinear dynamics↗
Krylov winding and emergent coherence in operator growth dynamics
The operator wavefunction provides a fine-grained description of quantum chaos and of the irreversible growth of simple operators into increasingly complex ones. Remarkably, at finite temperature this wavefunction can acquire a phase that increases linearly with the operator’s size, a phenomenon called . Although size winding occurs naturally in a holographic setting, the emergence of a coherent phase in a scrambled operator remains mysterious from the standpoint of a thermalizing quantum many-body system. Here, in this article, we elucidate this phenomenon by introducing the related concept of , whereby the operator wavefunction acquires a phase which winds linearly with the Krylov index. We show that Krylov winding is a generic feature of quantum chaotic systems and is a direct consequence of the universal operator growth bound hypothesis. It gives rise to size winding under two additional conditions: (i) a low-rank mapping between the Krylov and size bases, which ensures phase alignment among operators of the same size, and (ii) the saturation of the "chaos-operator growth" bound 𝜆 𝐿 ≤ 2𝛼 (with 𝜆 𝐿 the Lyapunov exponent and 𝛼 the growth rate), which ensures a linear phase dependence on size. For systems which do not saturate this bound, with ℎ = 𝜆 𝐿 /2𝛼 < 1, the winding with Pauli size ℓ becomes superliner, behaving as ℓ 1/ℎ . We illustrate these results with two classes of microscopic models: the Sachdev-Ye-Kitaev (SYK) model and its variants, and a disordered 𝑘-local spin model.
71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
Online regularization of Poincaré map of storage rings with Shannon entropy
A measurable chaos indicator is used as the online optimization objective in tuning a complicated nonlinear system—the National Synchrotron Light Source-II storage ring. Through analyzing the Shannon entropy in measured Poincaré maps, not only can the commonly used nonlinear characterizations be extracted, but more importantly, the chaos can be quantified and then used for an online regularization of these maps. The method itself is general and applicable to other tunable nonlinear systems as well. Published by the American Physical Society 2025
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Lunar and Planetary Science XXXV: Icy Worlds: Moving and Grooving
Reports from the conference session entitled Icy Worlds: Moving and Grooving, include:Mass Anomalies on Ganymede; Europan Chaos and Lenticulae: A Synthesis of Size, Spacing, and Areal Density Analyses; Thermal and Topographic Tests of Europa Chaos Formation Models; Flexure of Europa s Lithosphere Due to Ridge-Loading; Ridges on Europa: Origin by Incremental Ice-Wedging ; Convergent Boundaries on Europa: a Numerical Approach to Euler Pole Analysis and Its' Implications for Plate Reconstruction; Numerical Simulations of Subsolidus Convection in the Ice Shell of Europa: Implications for the Thermal Evolution and Present State; Effects of Plasticity on Convection in an Ice Shell: Implications for Europa; Non-Newtonian Convection and Compositional Buoyancy: Advances in Modeling Convection and Dome Formation on Europa; Convective Instability in Ice I: Application to Callisto and Ganymede; Crater Size Distributions on Callisto: A Galileo SSI Summary; Neutron Diffraction Studies of Planetary Ices; and H2O2 Synthesis Induced by Irradiation of H2O with Energetic H+ and Ar+ Ions at Various Temperatures.
Source record↗
Isochronous and period-doubling diagrams for symplectic maps of the plane
Symplectic mappings of the plane serve as key models for exploring the fundamental nature of complex behavior in nonlinear systems. Central to this exploration is the effective visualization of stability regimes, which enables the interpretation of how systems evolve under varying conditions. While the area-preserving quadratic Hénon map has received significant theoretical attention, a comprehensive description of its mixed parameter-space dynamics remain lacking. This limitation arises from early attempts to reduce the full two-dimensional phase space to a one-dimensional projection, a simplification that resulted in the loss of important dynamical features. Consequently, there is a clear need for a more thorough understanding of the underlying qualitative aspects. This paper aims to address this gap by revisiting the foundational concepts of reversibility and associated symmetries, first explored in the early works of G.D. Birkhoff. We extend the original framework proposed by Hénon by adding a period-doubling diagram to his isochronous diagram, which allows to represents the system’s bifurcations and the groups of symmetric periodic orbits that emerge in typical bifurcations of the fixed point. A qualitative and quantitative explanation of the main features of the region of parameters with bounded motion is provided, along with the application of this technique to other symplectic mappings, including cases of multiple reversibility. Modern chaos indicators, such as the Reversibility Error Method (REM) and the Generalized Alignment Index (GALI), are employed to distinguish between various dynamical regimes in the mixed space of variables and parameters. These tools prove effective in differentiating regular and chaotic dynamics, as well as in identifying twistless orbits and their associated bifurcations. Additionally, we discuss the application of these methods to real-world problems, such as visualizing dynamic aperture in accelerator physics, where our findings have direct relevance.
43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
Out-of-time ordered correlation functions for the localized 𝑓 electrons in the Falicov-Kimball model
We provide an exact evaluation of the out-of-time correlation (OTOC) functions for the localized 𝑓-particle states in the Falicov-Kimball model within dynamical mean-field theory. Different regimes of quantum chaos and quantum scrambling are distinguished by the winding numbers of the block Toeplitz matrices used in the calculation. The similarities of these fermionic OTOCs and their logarithmic derivatives for time evolution with the OTOCs for quantum spin models with disorder are also discussed.
75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
Entanglement Structure of Non-Gaussian States and How to Measure It
Rapidly growing capabilities of quantum simulators to probe quantum many-body phenomena require new methods to characterize increasingly complex states. Here, we present a protocol that constrains quantum states using experimentally measured correlation functions. This method enables measurement of a quantum state’s entanglement structure, opening a new route to study entanglement-related phenomena. Our approach extends Gaussian state parameterizations by systematically incorporating higher-order correlations. We show the protocol’s usefulness in conjunction with current and forthcoming experimental capabilities, focusing on weakly interacting fermions as a proof of concept. Here, the lowest nontrivial expansion quantitatively predicts early time thermalization dynamics, including signaling the onset of quantum chaos indicated by the entanglement Hamiltonian.
Fermi gases↗
Landau damping and steepening of interplanetary nonlinear hydromagnetic waves
According to collisionless shock theories, the thickness of a shock front should be of the order of the characteristic lengths of the plasmas (the Debye length, the proton and Larmor radii, etc.). Chao and Lepping (1974), found, however, that 30% of the observed interplanetary shocks at 1 AU have thicknesses much larger than these characteristic lengths. It is the objective of the present paper to investigate whether the competition between nonlinear steepening and Landau damping can result in a wave of finite width that does not steepen into a shock. A heuristic model of such a wave is developed and tested by the examples of two structures that are qualitatively shocklike, but thicker than expected from theory. It is found that both events are in the process of steepening and their limiting thicknesses due to Landau damping are greater than the corresponding proton Larmor radius for both structures as observed at Mariner 5 (nearer the sun than 1 AU) but are comparable to the proton Larmor radius for Explorer (near 1 AU) observations.
Barnes, A.↗
A demonstration of dual spacecraft tracking conducted with the Viking spacecraft during the approach phase
In the case of interplanetary space missions involving two spacecraft, such as Viking, significant navigation advantages may sometimes be achieved (at least for the trailing vehicle) by determining the orbit of one relative to the other, or otherwise combining the data from the two spacecraft. Dual spacecraft navigation concepts have been investigated by Chao et al. (1976). New analytical models for the dual spacecraft data types are presented and results are reported from a more recent demonstration conducted during the approach phase of the Viking mission. The demonstration was based on data taken two weeks before Mars orbit insertion of the second Viking spacecraft. The demonstration was designed to show that the approaching probe could be tied accurately to the planet through the orbiter. Attention is given to the geometry of the Viking B approach trajectory, the accuracy of the delivered estimates for midcourse maneuvers, and an algorithm of data processing.
Chao, C. C.↗
Controlling Ion Uptake in Carboxylated Mixed Conductors
Organic mixed ionic‐electronic conductors (OMIECs) have garnered significant attention due to their capacity to transport both ions and electrons, making them ideal for applications in energy storage, neuromorphics, and bioelectronics. However, charge compensation mechanisms during the polymer redox process remain poorly understood, and are often oversimplified as single‐ion injection with little attention to counterion effects. To advance understanding and design strategies toward next‐generation OMIEC systems, a series of p‐channel carboxylated mixed conductors is investigated. Varying side‐chain functionality, distinctive swelling character is uncovered during electrochemical doping/dedoping with model chao‐/kosmotropic electrolytes. Carboxylic acid functionalized polymers demonstrate strong deswelling and mass reduction during doping, indicating cation expulsion, while ethoxycarbonyl counterparts exhibit prominent mass increase, pointing to an anion‐driven doping mechanism. By employing operando grazing incidence X‐ray fluorescence (GIXRF), it is revealed that the carboxyl functionalized polymer engages in robust cation interaction, whereas ester functionalization shifts the mechanism towards no cation involvement. It is demonstrated that cations are pivotal in mitigating swelling by counterbalancing anions, enabling efficient anion uptake without compromising performance. These findings underscore the transformative influence of functionality‐driven factors and side‐chain chemistry in governing ion dynamics and conduction, providing new frameworks for designing OMIECs with enhanced performance and reduced swelling.
carboxylated polythiophenes↗
Accelerating uncertainty quantification in incremental dynamic analysis using dimension reduction-based surrogate modeling
We propose a surrogate modeling framework based on dimension reduction to facilitate the quantification of seismic risk of structural systems in performance-based earthquake engineering. The framework adopts incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) for addressing hazard variability, and promotes significant computational efficiency improvement for propagating epistemic uncertainties associated with the structural models. It utilizes both linear and nonlinear dimension reduction approaches, equipped with inverse mappings, to learn a functional between the input parameter space (e.g., the epistemic uncertainties of the structure) to the high-dimensional output space created through the IDA implementation across different ground motions and seismic intensity levels. Polynomial chaos expansion is adopted as the surrogate model to learn this functional in the reduced space. A nine-story steel moment-resisting frame with uncertain structural properties is used as a testbed. Furthermore, we select the seismic fragility curves as a measure of the structure’s seismic performance, since it provides an estimate of the probability of entering specified damage states for given levels of ground shaking.
42 ENGINEERING↗
Data-Driven Surrogate Modeling with Microstructure-Sensitivity of Viscoplastic Creep in Grade 91 Steel
Abstract To support the development of advanced steel alloys tailored to withstand extreme conditions, it is imperative to account for the mechanical performance of components, while considering the influence of local microstructure on the macroscopic response. To this end, this study focuses on the development of microstructure-sensitive constitutive models for the mechanical response of Grade 91 steel exposed to extreme thermo-mechanical environments. Polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) surrogates are used to emulate high-fidelity polycrystal simulations of the viscoplastic response of Grade 91 steel as a function of the microstructure fingerprint (e.g., dislocations and precipitates). To cover a wide temperature–stress domain, two separate PCE surrogates—one that captures softening and the other that captures hardening behavior—are combined using another (sparse) Gaussian process regression model. The resulting constitutive creep surrogate model is integrated within the MOOSE finite element framework to simulate the intricate effects of microstructure, in particular MX-phase precipitates, on a component with a graded microstructure. Surrogate sensitivity analysis is applied to quantify the relevant impact of spatially varying microstructure on the creep response in a test-case involving a Grade 91 alloy with a prototypical weld.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Boosting efficiency and reducing graph reliance: Basis adaptation integration in Bayesian multi-fidelity networks
The computational cost of high-fidelity numerical models makes outer-loop analysis, which requires repeated interrogation of the model such as uncertainty quantification, computationally demanding. Multi-fidelity methods, which construct a surrogate model using data from an ensemble of models of varying cost and accuracy, can substantially reduce the cost of outer-loop analysis. However, these methods can be difficult to apply when the model ensemble does not admit a clear hierarchy a priori and the correlations between models are low. Consequently, in this paper, we present a multi-fidelity method that leverages dimension reduction to enhance the correlation between models, thereby reducing the amount of data needed to train a surrogate from an unordered ensemble of models. Our method utilizes basis adaptation to build low-dimensional polynomial chaos expansions of each model and employs Multi-fidelity Networks to encode the relationships among models. We show that the resulting method exhibit two notable advantages over its counterpart: (1) enhanced accuracy (both reduced bias and variance); and (2) reduced dependency on the graph structure encoding relationships among models. We demonstrate the approach on an analytical test problem and a challenging finite element model for a spent nuclear fuel. Our method produces a surrogate model that is significantly more accurate than either a single-fidelity surrogate or a multi-fidelity surrogate constructed without basis adaptation.
42 ENGINEERING↗
Uncertainty quantification for Joule heating processes in fibrous pore-resolved media
Joule heating (JH) is an energy-efficient and sustainable technique for heating materials. Its application for industrial heating, particularly, has been gaining attention due to its potential for increasing the yield of various chemical products. The process involves the use of heating elements (materials that are highly conductive electrically and thermally) to heat up other materials or substances. These conductors, however, can exhbit varying degrees of uncertainty due to non-linearities in their temperature-dependent properties, which could result in variable material behavior. In this work, we carry out uncertainty quantification (UQ) at the pore scale to describe the uncertainty of such materials. In so doing, we applied the non-intrusive polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) technique to quantify the uncertainty within the system. The steady state Joule heating equation was solved numerically at the pore scale mimicking conditions within a heating chamber for propane dehydrogenation, and various electro-thermal profiles were obtained. We also examined the effect of the number of sampling points (20 – 100) and order of the PCE coefficients (2 – 5) on the accuracy of the temperature evaluations. The results were then benchmarked with the standard Monte Carlo (MC) method. The average temperature of the 4th-order global PCE showed good agreement with the MC results (which were positively skewed). Orders greater than 4 gave an underestimation of the temperatures while predictions for the peak temperature improved as the number of sampling points increased.
Fagbemi, Samuel [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000236995025)↗
Quantum computing universal thermalization dynamics in a (2 + 1)D Lattice Gauge Theory
Simulating non-equilibrium phenomena in strongly-interacting quantum many-body systems, including thermalization, is a promising application of near-term and future quantum computation. By performing experiments on a digital quantum computer consisting of fully-connected optically-controlled trapped ions, we study the role of entanglement in the thermalization dynamics of a Z 2 lattice gauge theory in 2+1 spacetime dimensions. Using randomized-measurement protocols, we efficiently learn a classical approximation of non-equilibrium states that yields the gap-ratio distribution and the spectral form factor of the entanglement Hamiltonian. These observables exhibit universal early-time signals for quantum chaos, a prerequisite for thermalization. Our work, therefore, establishes quantum computers as robust tools for studying universal features of thermalization in complex many-body systems, including in gauge theories.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗