Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Annual Technology Baseline”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Representation of Fossil Power Generation Technologies in NREL’s Annual Technology Baseline

This presentation was delivered at the Energy Economics USAEE/IAEE North American Conference on November 7, 2023. The presentation highlights support provided by the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) on the development of National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL) Annual Technology Baseline (ATB). The ATB documents transparent, normalized technology cost and performance assumptions using public sources. NETL's role in the development was to provide NREL with performance and cost data for select fossil-based technology classes. The ATB was released in June 2023.

Hackett, Gregory↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dataset for report: Non-Technical Barriers to Geothermal Development in California and Nevada

In California and Nevada, geothermal projects are subject to non-technical barriers, which may create development delays leading to higher project costs and risks and decreased competitiveness with other electricity generation technologies. These non-technical barriers may include federal and state permits, authorizations, environmental reviews, and other regulatory requirements that are applicable throughout different phases of geothermal project development. The 2022 National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) report, "Non-Technical Barriers to Geothermal Development in California and Nevada" presents findings of a study on non-technical barriers that may influence geothermal project development. The set of data resources relied upon for the report includes: 1) interviews conducted with relevant geothermal stakeholders including regulators and project developers, 2) federal and state environmental review documents developed for specific projects, 3) a techno-economic analysis conducted using the NREL Annual Technology Baseline (ATB) framework, and 4) an analysis of the impacts of site-specific land access and permitting considerations on project development readiness conducted using the Geothermal Resource Portfolio Optimization and Reporting Technique (GeoRePORT) Socioeconomic Assessment Tool (SEAT).

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Geothermal Power Systems Analysis: Outcome of Industry Stakeholders Workshop: Preprint

Geothermal cost and performance evaluation implemented via technoeconomic assessment (TEA) modeling is critical for the Department of Energy (DOE) and other geothermal industry stakeholders in assessing the current state of geothermal technologies and to identify existing hurdles to commercially viable geothermal development. The Geothermal Electricity Technology Evaluation Model (GETEM) is a major TEA tool used in estimating the economic feasibility and levelized cost of energy (LCOE) of conventional hydrothermal systems and enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). Since 2021, GETEM has been transitioning from an intricate spreadsheet model to a user-friendly tool within the System Advisor Model (SAM) developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). Apart from enabling an expanded visibility of the geothermal model among other renewable resources, having GETEM in SAM has the advantage of simulation automation, better usability, updates tracking, active user inputs/feedback, and extended financial modeling. GETEM is used in developing supply curves for the Annual Technology Baseline (ATB). The ATB data are inputs to the Renewable Energy Potential (reV) and the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) models. The geothermal module in NREL’s reV model assesses the geothermal energy potential in the conterminous United States by defining the geospatial intersection of geothermal resources with existing grid infrastructure within the constraint of land use characteristics. The ReEDS model is a capacity expansion model used for simulating the long-term build-out and operation of the US generation and transmission system based on current energy costs and policies. To ensure enhanced representation of current industry trends in our model transitions and development, we organized a two-day virtual workshop to elicit geothermal industry stakeholder input and recommendations on our current approaches and assumptions on technoeconomic, resource assessment, and deployment scenarios modeling of geothermal technologies. Participants included developers, operators, investors, regulatory agencies, system modelers, national laboratory researchers, consultants, and other stakeholders. In this workshop, we gained stakeholder insights on current geothermal plant performance (i.e., capacity factors), updated drilling costs and learning curves, and next generation technologies such as closed loop and superhot rock geothermal. Other outcomes from this workshop and its impact on future geothermal development feasibility, resource availability, and capacity expansion studies are compiled and discussed.

Annual Technology Baseline↗
DOE OSTI2025

Geothermal Power Systems Analysis: Outcome of Industry Stakeholders Workshop

Geothermal cost and performance evaluation implemented via techno-economic assessment (TEA) modeling is critical for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and other geothermal industry stakeholders in assessing the current state of geothermal technologies and to identify existing hurdles to commercially viable geothermal development. The Geothermal Electricity Technology Evaluation Model (GETEM) is a major TEA tool used in estimating the economic feasibility and levelized cost of energy (LCOE) of conventional hydrothermal systems and enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). Since 2021, GETEM has been transitioning from an intricate spreadsheet model to a user-friendly tool within the System Advisor Model (SAM) developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). Apart from enabling an expanded visibility of the geothermal model among other renewable resources, having GETEM in SAM has the advantage of simulation automation, better usability, updates tracking, active user inputs/feedback, and extended financial modeling. GETEM is used in developing supply curves for NREL's Annual Technology Baseline (ATB), which provides inputs to the Renewable Energy Potential (reV) and the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) models. The geothermal module in NREL's reV model assesses the geothermal energy potential in the conterminous United States by defining the geospatial intersection of geothermal resources with existing grid infrastructure within the constraint of land use characteristics. The ReEDS model is a capacity expansion model used for simulating the long-term build-out and operation of the U.S. generation and transmission system based on current energy costs and policies. To ensure enhanced representation of current industry trends in our model transitions and development, we organized a two-day virtual workshop to elicit geothermal industry stakeholder input and recommendations on our current approaches and assumptions on techno-economic, resource assessment, and deployment scenarios modeling of geothermal technologies. Participants included developers, operators, investors, regulatory agencies, system modelers, national laboratory researchers, consultants, and other stakeholders. In this workshop, we gained stakeholder insights on current geothermal plant performance (i.e., capacity factors), updated drilling costs and learning curves, and next-generation technologies such as closed-loop and superhot rock geothermal. Other outcomes from this workshop and its impact on future geothermal development feasibility, resource availability, and capacity expansion studies are compiled and discussed.

annual technology baseline↗
DOE OSTI2025

Future Wind Energy Resources and Cost Uncertainties Across the United States

This dataset contains results estimating projections of change of annual capacity factors and levelized cost of energy for several turbine technologies in the 2024 Annual Technology Baseline (ATB). Projections of change are based on downscaled earth system model (ESM) data from Sup3rCC. There has been evidence of reductions in average wind speeds over land in North America since the 1980s, and several models project that average wind speeds will continue to decrease. Concurrently, the cost of wind energy systems in the United States has been decreasing since around 2010, a trend also projected to continue. There is considerable uncertainty in these future projections, with quantitative estimates of future wind resource and system costs varying widely. To study this, we run land-based wind energy models with a range of possible future system costs, turbine designs, and meteorological inputs from multiple downscaled earth system models over the contiguous United States to estimate critical system performance metrics such as annual energy production (AEP) and levelized cost of energy. Where multiple earth system models agree, changes in mean AEP from the time period 2000-2019 to 2040-2059 can be as high as +10% in South Texas or as low as -20% in Iowa. Several additional states in the Midwest that currently have considerable wind generation capacity show the possibility of substantial decreases in AEP by mid-century. Larger turbines and moderate reductions in system costs can offset even the largest projected decreases in wind resource, but much uncertainty remains in the extent to which wind resources will actually change into the future and to what extent wind energy systems can drive down future costs. An analysis of variance shows, in several states in the Midwest, the uncertainty in future wind resource can be almost as important for future changes in the cost of wind energy as the uncertainty in future system costs.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

AnnualReportingWind [SWR-26-026]

AnnualReportingWind is a version-controlled repository used to generate the cost and performance results published in major wind energy reports such as the Cost of Wind Energy Review (COWER) and the Annual Technology Baseline (ATB). The repository consolidates the model configurations, assumptions, and scripts used in each reporting year so that published results can be transparently reproduced and traced back to the exact analytical setup used in the analysis. The workflows rely on several techno-economic modeling tools developed at the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR), including WAVES, ORBIT, LandBOSSE, WOMBAT, and FLORIS.

Mulas Hernando, Daniel [National Laboratory of the↗
DOE OSTI2026

Cost Analysis of Heavy-Duty Vehicle Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cell Stationary Power Plants

Heavy-duty PEM fuel cells could be a low-cost, low emission alternative to combustion turbines for re-electrifying hydrogen if used as part of a long duration grid energy storage systems. Many studies expect heavy duty PEM fuel cell production costs to reduce as manufacturing volumes ramp up and their expected durability of 25,000-30,000 hours aligns well with a 30-year life for hydrogen seasonal energy storage plants that would likely operate less than 10% of the year. The labor, material, and equipment costs associated with installing PEM fuel cells and their required balance of plant for stationary applications have not been thoroughly explored, however. This study performs a detailed design and cost analysis of a 100 MW stationary PEM fuel cell power plant, capturing costs such as cooling, power electronics, pipes, valves, fittings, cabling, conduit, concrete foundations, buildings, and land. It employs methods consistent with NLR's solar PV benchmarking cost analysis and annual technology baseline to derive the total installed costs of stationary PEM fuel cell plants that utilize heavy duty PEM fuel cells.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2023

United States Land-based Wind Supply Curves 2023

This data packet contains supply curves, hourly generation profiles, and a composite siting exclusion TIFF for land-based wind across the contiguous United States. The supply curves offer comprehensive metrics such as capacity (MW), generation (MWh), levelized cost of energy (LCOE), levelized cost of transmission (LCOT), and more for each reV site (~60,000 sites). Hourly generation profiles are available for each reV site and can be matched to the available capacity in the supply curve (refer to the Jupyter Notebook). The composite exclusion TIFF is a single file that delineates areas where wind installations are permissible based on various siting assumptions. This data packet contains information for the Reference and Limited siting scenarios. The turbine parameters used were a hub-height of 115 meters and a rotor diameter of 170 meters, as obtained from the Annual Technology Baseline (ATB) 2022. For further details and citation, please refer to the publication linked below: Lopez, Anthony, Pavlo Pinchuk, Michael Gleason, Wesley Cole, Trieu Mai, Travis Williams, Owen Roberts, Marie Rivers, Mike Bannister, Sophie-Min Thomson, Gabe Zuckerman, and Brian Sergi. 2024. Solar Photovoltaics and Land-Based Wind Technical Potential and Supply Curves for the Contiguous United States: 2023 Edition. Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory. NREL/TP-6A20-87843.

2023↗
DOE OSTI2024

Wind Turbine Water Setbacks: Ordinances (2022) and Extrapolated Trends, 115 Hub Height 170 Rotor Diameter

This dataset represents wind energy setback requirements from water based on existing county ordinances as of April 2022. A setback requirement is a minimum distance from water that an energy project may be developed, and these varied widely across the counties in which they existed. Two versions are provided: one reflecting only the county ordinances and another incorporating extrapolated trends. In the extrapolated version, a median setback equivalent to 1.1 times the turbine tip-height was applied in counties that lacked specific water setback regulations. A TIF data file and a PNG map of the data are provided for both versions, showing areas where wind energy is prohibited or permitted across the contiguous United States. The turbine parameters used were a hub-height of 115 meters and a rotor diameter of 170 meters, as obtained from the Annual Technology Baseline (ATB) 2022. For further details and citation, please refer to the publication linked below: Lopez, Anthony, Pavlo Pinchuk, Michael Gleason, Wesley Cole, Trieu Mai, Travis Williams, Owen Roberts, Marie Rivers, Mike Bannister, Sophie-Min Thomson, Gabe Zuckerman, and Brian Sergi. 2024. Solar Photovoltaics and Land-Based Wind Technical Potential and Supply Curves for the Contiguous United States: 2023 Edition. Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory. NREL/TP-6A20-87843.

Array↗
DOE OSTI2024

Wind Turbine Transmission Setbacks: Ordinances (2022) and Extrapolated Trends, 115 Hub Height 170 Rotor Diameter

This dataset represents wind energy setback requirements from transmission based on existing county ordinances as of April 2022. A setback requirement is a minimum distance from transmission infrastructure that an energy project may be developed, and these varied widely across the counties in which they existed. Two versions are provided: one reflecting only the county ordinances and another incorporating extrapolated trends. In the extrapolated version, a median setback equivalent to 1.1 times the turbine tip-height was applied in counties that lacked specific transmission setback regulations. A TIF data file and a PNG map of the data are provided for both versions, showing areas where wind energy is prohibited or permitted across the contiguous United States. The turbine parameters used were a hub-height of 115 meters and a rotor diameter of 170 meters, as obtained from the Annual Technology Baseline (ATB) 2022. For further details and citation, please refer to the publication linked below: Lopez, Anthony, Pavlo Pinchuk, Michael Gleason, Wesley Cole, Trieu Mai, Travis Williams, Owen Roberts, Marie Rivers, Mike Bannister, Sophie-Min Thomson, Gabe Zuckerman, and Brian Sergi. 2024. Solar Photovoltaics and Land-Based Wind Technical Potential and Supply Curves for the Contiguous United States: 2023 Edition. Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory. NREL/TP-6A20-87843.

Array↗
DOE OSTI2024

Wind Turbine Structure Setbacks: Ordinances (2022) and Extrapolated Trends, 115 Hub Height 170 Rotor Diameter

This dataset represents wind energy setback requirements from structures based on existing county ordinances as of April 2022. A setback requirement is a minimum distance from a structure that an energy project may be developed, and these varied widely across the counties in which they existed. Two versions are provided: one reflecting only the county ordinances and another incorporating extrapolated trends. In the extrapolated version, a median setback equivalent to 2 times the turbine tip-height was applied in counties that lacked specific structure setback regulations. A TIF data file and a PNG map of the data are provided for both versions, showing areas where wind energy is prohibited or permitted across the contiguous United States. The turbine parameters used were a hub-height of 115 meters and a rotor diameter of 170 meters, as obtained from the Annual Technology Baseline (ATB) 2022. For further details and citation, please refer to the publication linked below: Lopez, Anthony, Pavlo Pinchuk, Michael Gleason, Wesley Cole, Trieu Mai, Travis Williams, Owen Roberts, Marie Rivers, Mike Bannister, Sophie-Min Thomson, Gabe Zuckerman, and Brian Sergi. 2024. Solar Photovoltaics and Land-Based Wind Technical Potential and Supply Curves for the Contiguous United States: 2023 Edition. Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory. NREL/TP-6A20-87843.

Array↗
DOE OSTI2024

Wind Turbine Road Setbacks: Ordinances (2022) and Extrapolated Trends, 115 Hub Height 170 Rotor Diameter

This dataset represents wind energy setback requirements from roads based on existing county ordinances as of April 2022. A setback requirement is a minimum distance from a road that an energy project may be developed, and these varied widely across the counties in which they existed. Two versions are provided: one reflecting only the county ordinances and another incorporating extrapolated trends. In the extrapolated version, a median setback equivalent to 1.1 times the turbine tip-height was applied in counties that lacked specific railroad setback regulations. A TIF data file and a PNG map of the data are provided for both versions, showing areas where wind energy is prohibited or permitted across the contiguous United States. The turbine parameters used were a hub-height of 115 meters and a rotor diameter of 170 meters, as obtained from the Annual Technology Baseline (ATB) 2022. For further details and citation, please refer to the publication linked below: Lopez, Anthony, Pavlo Pinchuk, Michael Gleason, Wesley Cole, Trieu Mai, Travis Williams, Owen Roberts, Marie Rivers, Mike Bannister, Sophie-Min Thomson, Gabe Zuckerman, and Brian Sergi. 2024. Solar Photovoltaics and Land-Based Wind Technical Potential and Supply Curves for the Contiguous United States: 2023 Edition. Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory. NREL/TP-6A20-87843.

Array↗
DOE OSTI2024

Wind Turbine Railroad Setbacks: Ordinances (2022) and Extrapolated Trends, 115 Hub Height 170 Rotor Diameter

This dataset represents wind energy setback requirements from railroad based on existing county ordinances as of April 2022. A setback requirement is a minimum distance from a railroad that an energy project may be developed, and these varied widely across the counties in which they existed. Two versions are provided: one reflecting only the county ordinances and another incorporating extrapolated trends. In the extrapolated version, a median setback equivalent to 1.1 times the turbine tip-height was applied in counties that lacked specific railroad setback regulations. A TIF data file and a PNG map of the data are provided for both versions, showing areas where wind energy is prohibited or permitted across the contiguous United States. The turbine parameters used were a hub-height of 115 meters and a rotor diameter of 170 meters, as obtained from the Annual Technology Baseline (ATB) 2022. For further details and citation, please refer to the publication linked below: Lopez, Anthony, Pavlo Pinchuk, Michael Gleason, Wesley Cole, Trieu Mai, Travis Williams, Owen Roberts, Marie Rivers, Mike Bannister, Sophie-Min Thomson, Gabe Zuckerman, and Brian Sergi. 2024. Solar Photovoltaics and Land-Based Wind Technical Potential and Supply Curves for the Contiguous United States: 2023 Edition. Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory. NREL/TP-6A20-87843.

Array↗
DOE OSTI2024

Wind Turbine Oil and Gas Pipeline Setbacks: Ordinances (2022) and Extrapolated Trends, 115 Hub Height 170 Rotor Diameter

This dataset represents wind energy setback requirements from oil and gas pipelines. A setback requirement is a minimum distance from a pipeline that an energy project may be developed. As of April 2022, no ordinances were discovered for any counties. Such ordinances are likely to arise as regulations continue to expand. Therefore, this dataset applies a median setback equivalent to 1.1 times the turbine tip-height, sourced from trends in other infrastructure. A TIF data file and a PNG map of the data are provided, showing areas where wind energy is prohibited or permitted across the contiguous United States. The turbine parameters used were a hub-height of 115 meters and a rotor diameter of 170 meters, as obtained from the Annual Technology Baseline (ATB) 2022. For further details and citation, please refer to the publication linked below: Lopez, Anthony, Pavlo Pinchuk, Michael Gleason, Wesley Cole, Trieu Mai, Travis Williams, Owen Roberts, Marie Rivers, Mike Bannister, Sophie-Min Thomson, Gabe Zuckerman, and Brian Sergi. 2024. Solar Photovoltaics and Land-Based Wind Technical Potential and Supply Curves for the Contiguous United States: 2023 Edition. Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory. NREL/TP-6A20-87843.

Array↗
DOE OSTI2024

Solar Photovoltaic and Storage Supply Chains and Technology and Market Opportunities

This talk will highlight the most recent efforts from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to track solar photovoltaic (PV) and storage supply and demand in the United States and globally, as well as bottom-up calculations of manufacturing costs for facilities across the globe. We will begin with an overview of the global solar PV supply chain and 2022 benchmark input data used for NREL's bottom-up crystalline silicon (c-Si) and thin film PV module manufacturing cost models. For the polysilicon, wafer, cell conversion, and module assembly steps of the c-Si supply chain, and for thin film modules, we will review the industry-collected input data and methods used for calculating the costs of goods sold (COGS); research and development (R&D) expenses; and sales, general, and business administration (S, G, and A) expenses. This 2022 benchmark analysis is compiled for state-of-the-art c-Si and thin film PV module manufacturing in several countries and regions; and will also include a quantified summary of the impacts of the manufacturing incentives and tax credits that are available for solar manufacturing and installations within the United States. Next generation technologies that lower PV manufacturing and installation costs, reduce operations and maintenance (O&M) expenses, and improve system energy yield will also be highlighted. We will conclude with projections of solar market penetration to 2050 from NREL's Solar Futures Study and Annual Technology Baseline (ATB) model, which includes solar coupled with lower-cost storage scenarios as well as the range of future cost scenarios for other power generation sources. We look forward to sharing NREL's extensive work in these areas and discussing ideas for future directions.

economics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Comparative Study of Enhanced Geothermal System Supply Curves Across CONUS from Two Temperature Models Using the Renewable Energy Potential Model (reV)

Enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) have had recent breakthroughs within the geothermal sector. These breakthroughs are reflected in the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) 2024 Annual Technology Baseline and will result in updated EGS supply curves (i.e., the available resource capacity relative to cost). Our research uses NREL's Renewable Energy Potential (reV) model to compare EGS supply curves across the conterminous United States (CONUS) for two different temperature models: the Stanford temperature model (STM) and the Southern Methodist University temperature model (SMU). The reV model provides the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) at a consistent resolution across CONUS, taking into consideration transmission costs and constraints as well as technical exclusions pertaining to sensitive cultural, ecological, or infrastructure locations. In addition to a countrywide analysis of both models, we also conducted a regional analysis of Texas. We observed the STM had, on average, lower temperatures across different depths, resulting in slightly higher mean and median LCOEs as compared to the SMU temperature model at the same depths. In the regional analysis for Texas, however, when we compared only the common points between the two temperature models, the STM had lower median and mean LCOEs compared to SMU due to higher temperatures at depths greater than 5 km.

enhanced geothermal systems↗