Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “robust estimation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 343 records · Page 19

Probing the galaxy–halo connection with total satellite luminosity

ABSTRACT We demonstrate how the total luminosity in satellite galaxies is a powerful probe of dark matter haloes around central galaxies. The method cross-correlates central galaxies in spectroscopic galaxy samples with fainter galaxies detected in photometric surveys. Using models, we show that the total galaxy luminosity, Lsat, scales linearly with host halo mass, making Lsat an excellent proxy for Mh. Lsat is also sensitive to the formation time of the halo. We demonstrate that probes of galaxy large-scale environment can break this degeneracy. Although this is an indirect probe of the halo, it yields a high signal-to-noise ratio measurement for galaxies expected to occupy haloes at <1012 M⊙, where other methods suffer from larger errors. In this paper, we focus on observational and theoretical systematics in the Lsat method. We test the robustness of our method of finding central galaxies and our methods of estimating the number of background galaxies. We implement this method on galaxies in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) data, with satellites identified in fainter imaging data. We find excellent agreement between our theoretical predictions and the observational measurements. Finally, we compare our Lsat measurements to weak lensing estimates of Mh for red and blue subsamples. In the stellar mass range where the measurements overlap, we find consistent results, where red galaxies live in larger haloes. However, the Lsat approach allows us to probe significantly lower mass galaxies. At these masses, the Lsat values are equivalent. This example shows the potential of Lsat as a probe of dark haloes.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Searching for parity violation in SDSS DR16 Lyman-α forest data

The four-point correlation function is the lowest order correlation function for scalar fields that can be used to probe statistical parity invariance in an isotropic universe. There are intriguing claims of detection of parity violation in the 4-point function of BOSS galaxy clustering data. We apply the same estimator to the public SDSS Data Release 16 Lyman-α forest data. Lyman-α forest data probes a different redshift range and is sensitive to a different density regime using a completely different technique. A detection would therefore be a strong indication of new physics. We identify an accurate covariance matrix as a crucial impediment to performing this measurement accurately, consistent with existing literature on galaxy 4-point function. Here, we discuss several approaches to estimating the covariance matrix, several of which produce spurious detection. Using a robust, but very suboptimal, covariance matrix derived from subsample bootstrapping, we find no evidence for parity violation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Spectroscopy outperforms leaf trait relationships for predicting photosynthetic capacity across different forest types

Leaf trait relationships are widely used to predict ecosystem function in Terrestrial Biosphere Models (TBMs), in which leaf maximum carboxylation capacity (V c,max ), an important trait for modelling photosynthesis, can be inferred from other easier- to-measure traits. However, whether trait-V c,max relationships are robust across different forest types remains unclear. Here we used measurements of leaf traits, including one morphological trait (leaf mass per area), three biochemical traits (leaf water content, area-based leaf nitrogen content, and leaf chlorophyll content), one physiological trait (V c,max ), as well as leaf reflectance spectra, and explored their relationships within and across three contrasting forest types in China. We found weak and forest type-specific relationships between V c,max and the four morphological and biochemical traits (R 2 ≤ 0.15), indicated by significantly changing slopes and intercepts across forest types. In contrast, reflectance spectroscopy effectively collapsed the differences in the trait-V c,max relationships across three forest biomes into a single robust model for V c,max (R 2 = 0.77), and also accurately estimated the four traits (R 2 = 0.75-0.94). Furthermore, these findings challenge the traditional use of empirical trait-V c,max relationships in TBMs for estimating terrestrial plant photosynthesis, but also highlight spectroscopy as an efficient alternative for characterizing V c,max and multi-trait variability, with critical insights into ecosystem modeling and functional trait ecology.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Principle of Maximum Conformality Correctly Resolves the Renormalization-Scheme-Dependence Problem

In this paper, we clarify a serious misinterpretation and consequent misuse of the Principle of Maximum Conformality (PMC), which also can serve as a mini-review of PMC. In a recently published article, P. M. Stevenson has claimed that “the PMC is ineffective and does nothing to resolve the renormalization-scheme-dependence problem”, concluding incorrectly that the success of PMC predictions is due to the PMC being a “laborious, ad hoc, and back-door” version of the Principle of Minimal Sensitivity (PMS). We show that such conclusions are incorrect, deriving from a misinterpretation of the PMC and an overestimation of the applicability of the PMS. The purpose of the PMC is to achieve precise fixed-order pQCD predictions, free from conventional renormalization schemes and scale ambiguities. We demonstrate that the PMC predictions satisfy all the self-consistency conditions of the renormalization group and standard renormalization-group invariance; the PMC predictions are thus independent of any initial choice of renormalization scheme and scale. The scheme independence of the PMC is also ensured by commensurate scale relations, which relate different observables to each other. Moreover, in the Abelian limit, the PMC dovetails into the well-known Gell-Mann–Low framework, a method universally revered for its precision in QED calculations. Due to the elimination of factorially divergent renormalon terms, the PMC series not only attains a convergence behavior far superior to that of its conventional counterparts but also deftly curtails any residual scale dependence caused by the unknown higher-order terms. This refined convergence, coupled with its robust suppression of residual uncertainties, furnishes a sound and reliable foundation for estimating the contributions from unknown higher-order terms. Anchored in the bedrock of standard renormalization-group invariance, the PMC simultaneously eradicates the factorial divergences and eliminates superfluous systematic errors, which inversely provides a good foundation for achieving high-precision pQCD predictions. Consequently, owing to its rigorous theoretical underpinnings, the PMC is eminently applicable to virtually all high-energy hadronic processes.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

The DESI DR1 Peculiar Velocity Survey: Growth Rate Measurements from the Galaxy Power Spectrum

The large-scale structure of the Universe and its evolution encapsulate a wealth of cosmological information. A powerful means of unlocking this knowledge lies in measuring the auto-power spectrum and/or the cross-power spectrum of the galaxy density and momentum fields, followed by the estimation of cosmological parameters based on these spectrum measurements. In this study, we generalize the cross-power spectrum model to accommodate scenarios where the density and momentum fields are derived from distinct galaxy surveys. The growth rate of the large-scale structures of the Universe, commonly represented as $fσ_8$, is extracted by jointly fitting the monopole and quadrupole moments of the auto-density power spectrum, the monopole of the auto-momentum power spectrum, and the dipole of the cross-power spectrum. Our estimators, theoretical models and parameter-fitting framework have been tested using mocks, confirming their robustness and accuracy in retrieving the fiducial growth rate from simulation. These techniques are then applied to analyze the power spectrum of the DESI Bright Galaxy Survey and Peculiar Velocity Survey, and the fit result of the growth rate is $fσ_8=0.440^{+0.080}_{-0.096}$ at effective redshift $z_{\rm eff}=0.07$. By synthesizing the fitting outcomes from correlation functions, maximum likelihood estimation and power spectrum, yields a consensus value of $fσ_8(z_{\rm eff}=0.07) = 0.450 ^{+0.055}_{-0.055}$, and correspondingly we obtain $γ=0.580^{+0.110}_{-0.110}$, $Ω_\mathrm{m}=0.301^{+0.011}_{-0.011}$ and $σ_8=0.834^{+0.032}_{-0.032}$. The measured $fσ_8$ and $γ$ are consistent with the prediction of the $Λ$ Cold Dark Matter Model and General Relativity.

Qin, F. [Marseille, CPPM] (ORCID:0000000179507864)↗

Using Fiducial Markers for Pose Estimation of an OSWEC in a Wave Tank: Preprint

In this study, we consider a novel method of sensing the motion of a wave energy converter during testing in a wave flume under the influence of incoming waves. The wave energy converter considered in our research is an oscillating surge wave energy converter, which is a hinged paddle that responds to incoming waves. Motion sensing is normally done with inertial sensors, which can hinder the motion due to suspended cables that carry power and transmit signals. Our proposed method is contactless and can be implemented economically. A camera is used to record different marker patterns affixed to the moving paddle and the motion deduced by pose estimation algorithms. Fiducial markers are commonly used for robot localization and in augmented reality. There are many types of fiducial markers, including ArUco-type markers which are accurate, fast and robust. The system consists of markers attached to the paddle element and recorded using a machine vision camera. A pose estimation algorithm is then applied to the detected markers to estimate the tilt of the paddle. In this work, we examine the challenges of image acquisition and calibration for underwater targets, compare the motion obtained by this new system with a calibrated tilt sensor and identify areas where the new system may be superior.

computer vision↗

The key role of forest disturbance in reconciling estimates of the northern carbon sink

Northern forests are an important carbon sink, but our understanding of the driving factors is limited due to discrepancies between dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and atmospheric inversions. We show that DGVMs simulate a 50% lower sink (1.1 ± 0.5 PgC yr –1 over 2001–2021) across North America, Europe, Russia, and China compared to atmospheric inversions (2.2 ± 0.6 PgC yr –1 ). We explain why DGVMs underestimate the carbon sink by considering how they represent disturbance processes, specifically the overestimation of fire emissions, and the lack of robust forest demography resulting in lower forest regrowth rates than observed. We reconcile net sink estimates by using alternative disturbance-related fluxes. We estimate carbon uptake through forest regrowth by combining satellite-derived forest age and biomass maps. We calculate a regrowth flux of 1.1 ± 0.1 PgC yr –1 , and combine this with satellite-derived estimates of fire emissions (0.4 ± 0.1 PgC yr –1 ), land-use change emissions from bookkeeping models (0.9 ± 0.2 PgC yr –1 ), and the DGVM-estimated sink from CO 2 fertilisation, nitrogen deposition, and climate change (2.2 ± 0.9 PgC yr –1 ). The resulting ‘bottom-up’ net flux of 2.1 ± 0.9 PgC yr –1 agrees with atmospheric inversions. The reconciliation holds at regional scales, increasing confidence in our results.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

SITCOMTN-163: Source Selection for Abell 360 in LSSTComCam Data Preview 1

We cover the source selection done for the Abell 360 LSSTComCam cluster study focusing on color and photo-z cuts. Identification of cluster members via the red sequence and photo-z offers a science focused validation of photometry with LSSTComCam. We are able to cross-match with DESI spectroscopic redshifts to offer an independent validation suite on photo-z estimates. We make various color and photo-z cuts to generate N(z)s and shear profiles. We find that both cuts are quite robust to various choices made and can produce a shear profile for Abell 360. Both methods should be applicable to generating a consistent mass estimate for the cluster.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Regional inertia dynamics of U.S. interconnections: An event-based measurement approach

Power grid inertia plays a vital role in frequency stability following large disturbances, yet its distribution across the U.S. grid is highly uneven. While interconnection-wide inertia benchmarks are useful, they can mask regional variability driven by resource mix, network coupling, and geographic separation. This paper extends event-driven inertia estimation to the regional scale using field measurements from the Frequency Monitoring Network (FNET/GridEye). Starting from balancing authority and independent system operator footprints, candidate regions are refined using a composite coherency score that combines frequency-trajectory shape similarity, timing spread, and lead/lag behavior to ensure dynamic consistency. A filtered sliding difference method (FSDM) is then used to construct regional frequency trajectories, detect disturbance onset, and compute robust regional rate-of-change of frequency (RoCoF). Regional, local, and interconnection inertia are estimated by combining RoCoF with event power imbalance, and additional indicators (regional-to-system inertia ratio and inertial-support arrival time) quantify regional-to-interconnection coupling and relative regional contributions. The method is demonstrated on eleven regions across the Eastern Interconnection (EI) and the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC), with the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) used for validation. In ERCOT, estimates compared against energy management system (EMS) values achieve a mean absolute percentage error of 17.94%. WECC exhibits consistently shorter inertial-support arrival times (0.15–0.3 s) than EI (0.7–1.1 s), highlighting contrasting coupling and disturbance-propagation behavior. Overall, the results reveal pronounced spatial heterogeneity in inertia and coupling, underscoring the value of regional monitoring for both operational decision-making and long-term system planning.

Disturbance events↗

Passive Microwave Radiometry and Active Radar Sounding as Complementary Tools for Geophysical Investigations of Icy Ocean Worlds

Juno Microwave Radiometer (MWR) observations of Europa and Ganymede offer critical insights into the icy shells of these moons ahead of NASA's Europa Clipper and ESA's JUpiter ICy moons Explorer (JUICE) missions. Both missions are equipped with active radar sounders designed to address key unknowns such as ice shell thickness, thermal state, and composition. In this study, we explore how passive microwave radiometry and active radar sounding can constrain ice shell properties, focusing on Europa. Using modeled microwave brightness temperature observations at 0.6 and 1.2 GHz alongside simulated radar attenuation rate observations, we show that each instrument can independently produce robust ice shell thickness constraints under idealized conditions. We then relax these assumptions, quantifying how uncertainties from non-ideal properties—including convective layers, freezing-point depression, and chloride-doped ice—affect thickness estimates. Finally, we demonstrate how combining observations from these complementary techniques breaks degeneracies between ice shell properties, enabling more robust constraints than either method alone. This approach will maximize the science return of Europa Clipper and JUICE, advancing our understanding of the thermophysical structure and habitability of icy ocean worlds.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Dynamic signal recovery in distribution grids using compressive lossy measurements

Distribution system state estimation requires reliable aggregation of the measured data. However, the large volume of the measured data imposes a significant stress on the underlying communication infrastructure. With the challenges associated with measurement availability, current distribution systems are typically unobservable. To cope with the unobservability issue, compressive sensing theory allows us to recover system state information from a small number of measurements provided the states of the distribution system exhibit sparsity. In this paper, we evaluate the robustness of an updated Kalman filtered modified compressive sensing (KF-ModCS) technique that dynamically estimates the grid states using a small fraction of measured data. In practice, measurements used for sparsity based state estimation may also be intermittent due to communication network induced losses. Further, to understand the effect of packet losses on KF-ModCS, we provide an upper bound for the expected variances of the state estimation error for a given rate of information loss. This upper bound is further improved if the support set of the sparse signal that characterizes the state dynamics does not change over time and/or the reduced model is observable. Simulations based on two practical data sets collected from actual customers in a distribution grid validate the theoretical results.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

A new approach for measuring the carbon and oxygen content of atmospherically relevant compounds and mixtures

Abstract. Due to its complexity, gas- and particle-phase organic carbon in the atmosphere is often classified by its bulk physicochemical properties. However, there is a dearth of robust, moderate-cost approaches to measure the bulk chemical composition of organic carbon in the atmosphere. This is particularly true for the degree of oxygenation, which critically affects the properties and impacts of organic carbon but for which routine measurement approaches are lacking. This gap has limited the understanding of a wide range of atmospheric components, including particulate matter, the mass of which is monitored worldwide due to its health and environmental effects but the chemical characterization of which requires relatively high capital costs and complex operation by highly trained technical personnel. In this work, we demonstrate a new approach to estimate the mass of carbon and oxygen in analytes and mixtures that relies only on robust, moderate-cost detectors designed for use with gas chromatography. Organic compounds entering a flame ionization detector were found to be converted with approximately complete efficiency to CO2, which was analyzed downstream using an infrared detector to measure the mass of carbon analyzed. The ratio of the flame ionization detector (FID) signal generated to CO2 formed (FID∕CO2) was shown to be strongly correlated (R2=0.89) to the oxygen-to-carbon ratio (O∕C) of the analyte. Furthermore, simple mixtures of analytes behaved as the weighted average of their components, indicating that this correlation extends to mixtures. These properties were also observed to correlate well with the sensitivity of the FID estimated by structure activity relationships (quantified as the relative effective carbon number). The relationships between measured FID∕CO2, analyte O∕C, and FID sensitivity allow the estimation of one property from another with <15 % error for mixtures and <20 % error for most individual analytes. The approach opens the possibility of field-deployable, autonomous measurement of the carbon and oxygen content of particulate matter using time-tested, low-maintenance detectors, though such an application would require some additional testing on complex mixtures. With some instrumental modifications, similar measurements on gas-phase species may be feasible. Moreover, the potential expansion to additional gas chromatography detectors may provide concurrent measurement of other elements (e.g., sulfur, nitrogen).

42 ENGINEERING↗

The physiological basis for estimating photosynthesis from Chl>em>a fluorescence

We report solar-induced Chl fluorescence (SIF) offers the potential to curb large uncertainties in the estimation of photosynthesis across biomes and climates, and at different spatiotemporal scales. However, it remains unclear how SIF should be used to mechanistically estimate photosynthesis. In this study, we built a quantitative framework for the estimation of photosynthesis, based on a mechanistic light reaction model with the Chla fluorescence of Photosystem II (SIFPSII) as an input (MLR-SIF). Utilizing 29 C 3 and C 4 plant species that are representative of major plant biomes across the globe, we confirmed the validity of this framework at the leaf level. The MLR-SIF model is capable of accurately reproducing photosynthesis for all C 3 and C 4 species under diverse light, temperature, and CO 2 conditions. We further tested the robustness of the MLR-SIF model using Monte Carlo simulations, and found that photosynthesis estimates were much less sensitive to parameter uncertainties relative to the conventional Farquhar, von Caemmerer, Berry (FvCB) model because of the additional independent information contained in SIF PSII . Once inferred from direct observables of SIF, SIF PSII provides ‘parameter savings’ to the MLR-SIF model, compared to the mechanistically equivalent FvCB model, and thus avoids the uncertainties arising as a result of imperfect model parameterization. Our findings set the stage for future efforts to employ SIF mechanistically to improve photosynthesis estimates across a variety of scales, functional groups, and environmental conditions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Dark Energy Survey year 6 results: Magnification modeling and its impact on galaxy clustering and galaxy-galaxy lensing cosmology

Gravitational lensing magnification alters the observed spatial distribution of galaxies and must be accounted for to prevent biases in cosmological probes of the large-scale structure. We investigate its effects on the Dark Energy Survey Year 6 galaxy clustering and galaxy-galaxy lensing analyses using the fiducial lens (position tracer) sample M ag L im++. Magnification bias is parameterized by a coefficient that describes the response of the number of selected objects per unlensed area element to a change in the lensing convergence. We quantify this coefficient using the BALROG synthetic source injection catalog to account for the complexity of the selection function, and compare these results with simplified estimates. The resulting values of the magnification coefficients for each redshift bin are [3.16 ± 0.08, 2.76 ± 0.21, 4.09 ± 0.15, 4.42 ± 0.16, 4.90 ± 0.29, 4.83 ± 0.25]. Relative to Year 3, this analysis provides more precise and accurate magnification bias estimates through a larger BALROG area and reweighting to better match the data properties. Here, the cosmological results are robust when tested against various magnification parameter prior choices and also when adding cross-clustering between lens redshift bins. Neglecting magnification, however, introduces significant systematic shifts: relative to the fiducial analysis with Gaussian priors centered on the BALROG -derived estimates, we observe shifts of 1.37σ in S 8 and -0.84σ in Ω m (with cosmic shear included: -0.61σ in S 8 and -0.71σ in Ω m ), in agreement with findings from simulated data, demonstrating that magnification must be modeled to avoid biases. Freeing the magnification bias in lens bin 2 leads to unphysical negative values, further justifying its exclusion from the fiducial Year 6 analysis.

Cosmological parameters↗

Cost and Performance Projections for Coal- and Natural Gas-Fired Power Plants

This report provides quantitative estimates of future cost and performance improvements for fossil-fueled power plants equipped with carbon capture developed through the adaption/modification of relevant Aspen Plus ® case study models from published NETL techno-economic analyses. The cost and performance estimates in this report are meant to represent prospective improvements that may be realized for low-carbon-emitting PC and NGCC power plants through robust commercial deployment (e.g., learning by doing) of high TRL technologies as well as additional investments in targeted RD&D activities. The methodology used to develop the estimates in this report is intended to allow direct comparison of the technology improvements with the SOA baseline published in NETL’s Fossil Energy Baseline (Rev 4a) Report.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Field testing and validation of a low-cost MPC for demand flexibility for grid-interactive K-12 schools

K-12 school buildings account for the highest energy consumption within the public sector. Implementing advanced HVAC controls in grid-interactive K-12 schools could bring substantial economic advantages and grid flexibility. Our previous study demonstrated that a low-cost model predictive control (MPC) solution, which coordinates multiple packaged units, can enable demand flexibility without major hardware upgrades. However, a significant gap remains between academic pilots and market-ready scalable solutions. This paper extends the previous single-site pilot to a multi-site demonstration involving three school campuses (95 total units) through a commercial technology transfer process. Addressing the challenge of verifying performance with sparse field data, we present a new statistical approach using Bayesian methods to estimate the MPC’s effect on peak demand. Unlike traditional methods, this approach robustly quantifies uncertainty in non-normal, limited datasets. The results confirm the solution’s replicability, achieving a 21.6–38.9% reduction in HVAC peak demand (10.8–22.1% at the site-level) with > 98% probability across diverse locations. Finally, we document critical barriers to scaling software-as-a-service (SaaS) solutions–such as API instability and diverse legacy systems–and offer practical strategies to accelerate the commercial adoption of grid-interactive efficient buildings.

Ham, Sang Woo↗

Time-resolved spray characterization via unified optical flow and binarization technique

This work leverages an unsupervised machine learning and advanced image processing techniques to characterize the breakup of fuel sprays in a small-scale combustor under reacting conditions, providing valuable insights into near-nozzle flow phenomenology. The proposed methodology integrates an improved optical flow model on a convolutional neural network to extract flow vectors with a binarization technique to assess droplets’ size and shape across the region of interest. The velocimetry approach demonstrates superior performance compared to a state-of-the-art optical flow model when applied to high-speed X-ray phase contrast spray images, achieving more accurate and reliable flow predictions. Moreover, breakup processes are quantified by breakup length and sphericity in accordance with velocity estimations, allowing a more complete characterization of the flow. This study establishes a robust methodology for analyzing spray morphology and primary breakup in compact combustors, contributing valuable means of understanding and optimizing fuel spray behavior in advanced combustion systems.

42 ENGINEERING↗

PySAGES: flexible, advanced sampling methods accelerated with GPUs

Abstract Molecular simulations are an important tool for research in physics, chemistry, and biology. The capabilities of simulations can be greatly expanded by providing access to advanced sampling methods and techniques that permit calculation of the relevant underlying free energy landscapes. In this sense, software that can be seamlessly adapted to a broad range of complex systems is essential. Building on past efforts to provide open-source community-supported software for advanced sampling, we introduce PySAGES, a Python implementation of the Software Suite for Advanced General Ensemble Simulations (SSAGES) that provides full GPU support for massively parallel applications of enhanced sampling methods such as adaptive biasing forces, harmonic bias, or forward flux sampling in the context of molecular dynamics simulations. By providing an intuitive interface that facilitates the management of a system’s configuration, the inclusion of new collective variables, and the implementation of sophisticated free energy-based sampling methods, the PySAGES library serves as a general platform for the development and implementation of emerging simulation techniques. The capabilities, core features, and computational performance of this tool are demonstrated with clear and concise examples pertaining to different classes of molecular systems. We anticipate that PySAGES will provide the scientific community with a robust and easily accessible platform to accelerate simulations, improve sampling, and enable facile estimation of free energies for a wide range of materials and processes.

Chemistry↗