Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “rare event”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 343 records · Page 19
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Rapid attribution analysis of the extraordinary heat wave on the Pacific coast of the US and Canada in June 2021

Towards the end of June 2021, temperature records were broken by several degrees Celsius in several cities in the Pacific Northwest areas of the US and Canada, leading to spikes in sudden deaths and sharp increases in emergency calls and hospital visits for heat-related illnesses. Here we present a multi-model, multi-method attribution analysis to investigate the extent to which human-induced climate change has influenced the probability and intensity of extreme heat waves in this region. Based on observations, modelling and a classical statistical approach, the occurrence of a heat wave defined as the maximum daily temperature (TXx) observed in the area 45–52 °N, 119–123 °W, was found to be virtually impossible without human-caused climate change. The observed temperatures were so extreme that they lay far outside the range of historical temperature observations. This makes it hard to state with confidence how rare the event was. Using a statistical analysis that assumes that the heat wave is part of the same distribution as previous heat waves in this region led to a first-order estimation of the event frequency of the order of once in 1000 years under current climate conditions. Using this assumption and combining the results from the analysis of climate models and weather observations, we found that such a heat wave event would be at least 150 times less common without human-induced climate change. Also, this heat wave was about 2 °C hotter than a 1-in-1000-year heat wave would have been in 1850–1900, when global mean temperatures were 1.2 °C cooler than today. Looking into the future, in a world with 2 °C of global warming (0.8 °C warmer than today), a 1000-year event would be another degree hotter. Our results provide a strong warning: our rapidly warming climate is bringing us into uncharted territory with significant consequences for health, well-being and livelihoods. Adaptation and mitigation are urgently needed to prepare societies for a very different future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1984

Solar Flare and IMF Sector Structure Effects in the Lower Ionosphere

About 1% of all sudden ionospheric disturbances (SIDs) observed at the Panska Ves Observatory (Czechoslovakia), were found to be not of solar-XUV origin. Among them, the very rare SWF events (observed at L = 2.4) of corpuscular origin are the most interesting. The IMF sector structure effects in the midlatitude lower ionosphere are minor in comparison with effects of solar flares, geomagnetic storms, etc. There are two basic types of effects. The first type is a disturbance, best developed in geomagnetic activity, and observed in the night-time ionosphere. It can be interpreted as a response to sector structure related changes of geomagnetic (= magnetospheric) activity. The other type is best developed in the tropospheric vorticity area index and is also observed in the day-time ionosphere in winter. This effect is quietening in the ionosphere as well as troposphere. While the occurrence of the former type is persistent in time, the latter is severely diminished in some periods. All the stratosphere, the 10-mb level temperature and height above Berlin-Tempelhof do not display any observable IMF section structure effect.

Lastovicka, J.↗
NASA NTRS1991

The source of solar high-frequency acoustic modes - Theoretical expectations

The source exciting the solar p-modes is likely to be acoustic noise generated in the top part of the sun's convection zone. If so, then simple arguments suggest that most of the emitted energy may come from rare localized events that are well separated from one another in space and time. This note describes the acoustic emission that would be expected from such events, based on a ray-theory analysis. Most of the acoustic energy is found to emerge very close to the source, so that observations to identify emission events will require high spatial resolution.

Brown, Timothy M.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Solar flare nuclear gamma rays and interplanetary proton events

We compared flare gamma ray line (GRL) events and solar energetic proton (SEP) events for the period from Feb. 1980 - Jan. 1985 and substantiated earlier results showing a lack of correlation between gamma-ray-producing ions and interplanetary protons. This poor correlation results primarily from several large SEP events that originated in flares without detectable gamma ray emission. The converse case of GRL events unassociated with SEP events is rare. We present evidence which suggests that the ratio of trapped to escaping protons in GRL/SEP flares depends on the spatial scale size of the flare. We affirm the result of Bai and Dennis (1985) that GRL flares are generally accompanied (75 percent) by metric Type 2 bursts.

Cliver, E. W.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Nucleation and chiral symmetry breaking under controlled hydrodynamic flows

The effects of hydrodynamic convection on nucleation and broken chiral symmetry have been investigated for a simple inorganic molecule, sodium chlorate (NaClO3). Our experiment suggests that the symmetry breaking is a result of hydrodynamic amplification of rare nucleation events. The effect is more pronounced when the primary nucleation occurs on the solute-vapor interface, where mixing in the surface sublayer becomes important. The transition from the achiral to the chiral states appears to be smooth as the hydrodynamic parameters, such as flow rate, are varied.

Wu, Xiao-Lun↗
NASA NTRS2012

SOFIA: Flying the Telescope

The primary focus of this paper is how the flight test team for the Stratospheric Observatory For Infrared Astronomy (SOFIA) re-cast an extensive developmental test program to meet key milestones while simultaneously ensuring safe certification of the airframe and delivery of an operationally relevant platform, ultimately saving the overall program from financial demise. Following a brief introduction to the observatory and what it is designed to do, SOFIAs planned developmental test program is summarized, including analysis and design philosophy, envelope expansion, model validation and airframe certification. How NASA used lessons learned from other aircraft that employed open cavities in flight is explained as well as how and why the chosen design was selected. The approach to aerodynamic analysis, including bare airframe testing, wind tunnel testing, computational fluid dynamics and finite element modeling proved absolutely critical. Despite a solid analytical foundation, many unknowns remained. History provides several examples of disastrous effects on both systems and flight safety if cavity design is not approached properly. For these reasons, an extensive test plan was developed to ensure a safe and thorough build-up for envelope expansion, airframe certification and early science missions. Unfortunately, as is often the case, because of chronic delays in overall program execution, severe schedule and funding pressures were present. If critical milestones were not met, domestic as well as international funding was in serious jeopardy, and the demise of the entire program loomed large. Concentrating on rigorous model validation, the test team challenged certification requirements, increased test efficiency and streamlined engineering analysis. This resulted in the safe reduction of test point count by 72%, meeting all program milestones and a platform that soundly satisfied all operational science requirements. Results from early science missions are shown and a proof of concept mission for which SOFIA was opportunely positioned is showcased. Success on this time-critical mission to observe a rare astronomical event proved the usefulness of an airborne observatory and the value in waiting for the capability provided by SOFIA. Finally, lessons learned in the test program are presented with emphasis on how lessons from previous aircraft and successful test programs were applied to SOFIA. Effective application of these lessons was crucial to the success of the SOFIA flight test program. SOFIA is an international cooperative program between NASA and the German Space Agency, DLR. It is a 2.5 meter (100-inch) telescope mounted in a Boeing 747SP aircraft used for astronomical observations at altitudes above 35,000 feet. SOFIA will accommodate a host of scientific instruments from the international science community and has a planned operational lifespan of more than 20 years.

Asher, Troy A.↗
NASA NTRS2019

A Measurement of Water Vapour amid a Largely Quiescent Environment on Europa

Previous investigations proved the existence of local density enhancements in Europa’s atmosphere, advancing the idea of a possible origination from water plumes. These measurement strategies, however, were sensitive either to total absorption or atomic emissions, which limited the ability to assess the water content. Here we present direct searches for water vapour on Europa spanning dates from February 2016 to May 2017 with the Keck Observatory. Our global survey at infrared wavelengths resulted in non-detections on 16 out of 17 dates, with upper limits below the water abundances inferred from previous estimates. On one date (26 April 2016) we measured 2,095 ± 658 tonnes of water vapour at Europa’s leading hemisphere. We suggest that the outgassing ls than previously estimated, with only rare localized events of stronger activity.

Paganini, L.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Design of an event-driven random-access-windowing CCD-based camera

Commercially available cameras are not designed for the combination of single frame and high-speed streaming digital video with real-time control of size and location of multiple regions-of-interest (ROI). A new control paradigm is defined to eliminate the tight coupling between the camera logic and the host controller. This functionality is achieved by defining the indivisible pixel read out operation on a per ROI basis with in-camera time keeping capability. This methodology provides a Random Access, Real-time, Event-driven (RARE) camera for adaptive camera control and is well suited for target tracking applications requiring autonomous control of multiple ROIs. This methodology additionally provides for reduced ROI read out time and higher frame rates compared to the original architecture by avoiding external control intervention during the ROI read out process.

Ortiz, Gerardo G.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Exploring Methods to Collect and Analyze Data on Human Contributions to Aviation Safety: A Panel Discussion

Focusing on undesired operator behaviors is pervasive in system design and safety management cultures in aviation. This focus limits the data that are collected, the questions that are asked during data analysis, and therefore our understanding of what operators do in everyday work. Human performance represents a significant source of aviation safety data that includes both desired and undesired actions. When safety is characterized only in terms of errors and failures, the vast majority of human impacts on system safety and performance are ignored. The outcomes of safety data analyses dictate what is learned from those data, which in turn informs safety policies and safety-related decision making. When learning opportunities are systematically restricted by focusing only on rare failure events, not only do we learn less (and less often), but we can draw misleading conclusions by relying on a non-representative sample of human performance data. Changes in how we define and think about safety can highlight new opportunities for collection and analysis of safety-relevant data. Developing an integrated safety picture to better inform safety-related decision making and policies depends upon identifying, collecting, and interpreting safety-producing behaviors in addition to safety-reducing behaviors. Opportunities and challenges in collecting and analyzing the largely unexploited data on desired, safety-producing operator behaviors are discussed.

Aviation Safety↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Exploring Methods to Collect and Analyze Data on Human Contributions to Aviation Safety: A Panel Discussion

Focusing on undesired operator behaviors is pervasive in system design and safety management cultures in aviation. This focus limits the data that are collected, the questions that are asked during data analysis, and therefore our understanding of what operators do in everyday work. Human performance represents a significant source of aviation safety data that includes both desired and undesired actions. When safety is characterized only in terms of errors and failures, the vast majority of human impacts on system safety and performance are ignored. The outcomes of safety data analyses dictate what is learned from those data, which in turn informs safety policies and safety-related decision making. When learning opportunities are systematically restricted by focusing only on rare failure events, not only do we learn less (and less often), but we can draw misleading conclusions by relying on a non-representative sample of human performance data. Changes in how we define and think about safety can highlight new opportunities for collection and analysis of safety-relevant data. Developing an integrated safety picture to better inform safety-related decision making and policies depends upon identifying, collecting, and interpreting safety producing behaviors in addition to safety reducing behaviors. The panel will discuss opportunities and challenges in collecting and analyzing the largely unexploited data on desired, safety-producing operator behaviors.

aviation safety↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Expanding Our Understanding of What Constitutes a Safety-Relevant Occurrence

Focusing on undesired operator behaviors is pervasive in system design and safety management cultures. This focus limits the data that are collected, the questions that are asked during data analysis, and therefore our understanding of what operators do in everyday work. Human performance represents a significant source of safety data that includes both desired and undesired actions. When safety is characterized only in terms of errors and failures, the vast majority of human impacts on system safety and performance are ignored. The outcomes of safety data analyses dictate what is learned from those data, which in turn informs safety policies and safety-related decision making. When learning opportunities are systematically restricted by focusing only on rare failure events, not only do we learn less (and less often), but we can draw misleading conclusions by relying on a non-representative sample of human performance data. The study of human contributions to safety represents a vast and largely unexplored opportunity to learn. Changes in how we define and think about safety can highlight new opportunities for collection and analysis of safety-relevant data. Developing an integrated safety picture to better inform system design, safety-related decision making and policies depends upon identifying, collecting, and interpreting safety producing behaviors in addition to safety reducing behaviors.

Jon B Holbrook↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

AdaStress

This is a tutorial on AdaStress, a tool for finding and analyzing the likeliest failures in a simulated system under test. The presentation outlines the adaptive stress testing framework, provides a demonstration of use, and showcases several examples of failure detection in a complex real-world system.

Reinforcement learning↗
NASA NTRS2022

The hierarchical organization of autocatalytic reaction networks and its relevance to origin of life

Abiogenesis has long been suspected to require that chemical reaction networks contain multiple autocatalytic cores, but little is known about what features of these networks allow for the gradual accretion of complexity. To identify realistic scenarios for the emergence of life-like properties, we develop the concept of a seed-dependent autocatalytic system (SDAS), which is a subnetwork that can autocatalytically self-maintain given a flux of food, but cannot be initiated by food alone. Rather, initiation of SDASs requires the transient introduction of chemical “seeds”. We show that, depending on the topological relationship of SDASs in a chemical reaction network, a food-driven system can accrete complexity in a historically contingent manner, governed by rare seeding events. We develop new algorithms for detecting and analyzing SDASs in chemical reaction databases and describe parallels between multi-SDAS networks and biological ecosystems. Applying our algorithms to both an abiotic reaction network and a biochemical one, each driven by a set of simple food chemicals, we detect SDASs that are organized as trophic tiers, of which the higher tier can be seeded by relatively simple chemicals if the lower tier is already activated. This indicates that sequential activation of trophically organized SDASs by seed chemicals that are not much more complex than what already exist could be a mechanism of gradual complexification from relatively simple abiotic reactions to more complex life-like systems. Interestingly, in both reaction networks, higher-tier SDASs include chemicals that might alter emergent features of chemical systems and could serve as early targets of selection. Our analysis provides computational tools for analyzing very large chemical/biochemical reaction networks and suggests new approaches to studying abiogenesis in the lab.

Zhen Peng↗
NASA NTRS1988

Oblique impacts: Catastrophic vs. protracted effects

Proposed impacts as the cause of biologic catastrophes at the end of the Cretaceous and Eocene face several enigmas: protracted extinctions, even prior to the stratigraphic cosmogenic signature; widespread but non-uniform dispersal of the meteoritic component; absence of a crater of sufficient size; and evidence for massive intensive fires. Various hypotheses provide reasonable mechanisms for mass mortalities: global cooling by continental impact sites; global warming by oceanic impact sites; contrasting effects of asteroidal, cometary, and even multiple impacts; and stress on an already fragile global environment. Yet not every known large impact is associated with a major biologic catastrophe. An alternative is expanded: the consequences of an oblique impact. The most probable angle of impact is 45 deg with the probability for an impact at smaller angles decreasing: A vertical impact is as rare as a tangential impact with a 5 deg impact angle or less occurring only 8 percent of the time. Consequently a low-angle impact is a rare but probable event. Laboratory experiments at the NASA-Ames Vertical Gun Range reveal important information about cratering efficiency, impact vaporization, projectile dispersal, and phenomenology, thereby providing perspective for possible consequences of such an impact on both the Earth and Moon. Oblique impacts are rare but certain events through geologic time: A 5 deg impact by a 2 km-diameter impactor on the Earth would occur only once in about 18 my with a 10 km-diameter once in about 450 my. Major life extinctions beginning prior to the stratigraphic cosmogenic signature or protracted extinctions seemingly too long after the proposed event may not be evidence against an impact as a cause but evidence for a more complex but probable sequence of events.

Schultz, P. H.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Advancing research on compound weather and climate events via large ensemble model simulations

Societally relevant weather impacts typically result from compound events, which are rare combinations of weather and climate drivers. Focussing on four event types arising from different combinations of climate variables across space and time, here we illustrate that robust analyses of compound events — such as frequency and uncertainty analysis under present-day and future conditions, event attribution to climate change, and exploration of low-probability-high-impact events — require data with very large sample size. In particular, the required sample is much larger than that needed for analyses of univariate extremes. We demonstrate that Single Model Initial-condition Large Ensemble (SMILE) simulations from multiple climate models, which provide hundreds to thousands of years of weather conditions, are crucial for advancing our assessments of compound events and constructing robust model projections. Combining SMILEs with an improved physical understanding of compound events will ultimately provide practitioners and stakeholders with the best available information on climate risks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Kangaroo’s First Hop: The Early Fast Cooling Phase of EP250108a/SN 2025kg

Fast X-ray transients are a rare and poorly understood population of events. Previously difficult to detect in real time, the launch of the Einstein Probe with its Wide-field X-ray Telescope has led to a rapid expansionof the sample and allowed the exploration of these transients across the electromagnetic spectrum. EP250108a is a recently detected example linked to an optical counterpart, SN 2025kg, or “the kangaroo.” Together with a companion Letter we present our observing campaign and analysis of this event. In this letter, we focus on the early evolution of the optical counterpart over the first 6 days, including our measurement of the redshift of z = 0.17641. We compare to other supernovae and fast transients showing similar features, finding significant similarities with SN 2006aj and SN 2020bvc, and show that the source is well modelled by a rapidly expanding cooling blackbody. We show the observed X-ray and radio properties are consistent with a collapsar-powered jet that is low energy (≲10 51 erg) and/or fails to break out of the dense material surrounding it. While we examine the possibility that the optical emission emerges from the shock produced as the supernova ejecta expand into a dense shell of circumstellar material, due to our X-ray and radio inferences, we favour a model where it arises from a shocked cocoon resulting from a trapped jet. This makes SN 2025 one of the few examples of this currently observationally rare event.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Grid resolution requirement for resolving rare and high intensity wall-shear stress events in direct numerical simulations

Turbulent signals are intermittent with large instantaneous fluctuations. Such large fluctuations lead to small Kolmogorov scales that are hard to resolve in numerical simulations [P. K. Yeung, K. R. Sreenivasan, and S. B. Pope, Effects of finite spatial and temporal resolution in direct numerical simulations of incompressible isotropic turbulence, Phys. Rev. Fluids 3, 064603 (2018)]. Here, the present paper follows the above basic logic, but instead of dissipation events in isotropic turbulence, we study wall-shear stress events in plane channel flow. Wall-shear stress fluctuations are increasingly more intermittent as the Reynolds number increases. Hence, one has to employ higher grid resolutions as the Reynolds number increases in order to resolve a given percentage of wall-shear stress events. The objective of this paper is to quantify effects of the grid resolutions on the rare and high intensity wall-shear stress events. We find that the standard grid resolution resolves about 99% of the wall-shear stress events at Re τ = 180. A slightly higher grid resolution has to be employed in order to resolve 99% of the wall-shear stress events at higher Reynolds numbers, and if the standard grid resolution is used for, e.g., a Re τ = 10000 channel flow, one resolves about 90%–95% wall-shear stress events.

42 ENGINEERING↗