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Results for “GAUSSIAN PROCESSES”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 343 records · Page 19
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling gas–shell mixing in ICF with separated reactants

Mixing between fuel and shell materials in ICF implosions can affect implosion dynamics and even prevent ignition. We use data from a series of separated reactant experiments on the National Ignition Facility to calibrate and test the predictive power of gas–shell mix models. Two models are used to estimate fuel–shell mix: a Reynolds-averaged turbulence model and molecular diffusion. Minor uncertainties in capsule manufacture, experimental conditions, and values for mix model parameters produce significant variation in simulation results. Using input/output pairs from 1D simulations, we train Gaussian process surrogate models to predict experimental quantities of interest. The surrogates are used to construct posteriors for mix model parameters by marginalizing over uncertainties in capsule manufacture and experimental conditions. Mix models are calibrated with a subset of experimental data (neutron yields, ion temperature, and bang time) and tested using the remaining data. In general, both the diffusion and turbulence model correctly predict experimental DT and TT neutron yields. Despite having more free parameters, the turbulence model underpredicts ion temperature at high convergence ratio. Furthermore, the simpler diffusion model correctly predicts these temperatures, suggesting nonhydrodynamic gas–shell mix. The computational model consistently overpredicts DD neutron yield, indicating possible shortcomings outside of the mix model.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Infinite neural network quantum states: entanglement and training dynamics

We study infinite limits of neural network quantum states (∞-NNQS), which exhibit representation power through ensemble statistics, and also tractable gradient descent dynamics. Ensemble averages of entanglement entropies are expressed in terms of neural network correlators, and architectures that exhibit volume-law entanglement are presented. The analytic calculations of entanglement entropy bound are tractable because the ensemble statistics are simplified in the Gaussian process limit. A general framework is developed for studying the gradient descent dynamics of neural network quantum states (NNQS), using a quantum state neural tangent kernel (QS-NTK). For ∞-NNQS the training dynamics is simplified, since the QS-NTK becomes deterministic and constant. An analytic solution is derived for quantum state supervised learning, which allows an ∞-NNQS to recover any target wavefunction. Numerical experiments on finite and infinite NNQS in the transverse field Ising model and Fermi Hubbard model demonstrate excellent agreement with theory. ∞-NNQS opens up new opportunities for studying entanglement and training dynamics in other physics applications, such as in finding ground states.

quantum state supervised learning↗
DOE OSTI2021

Bayesian Cross-matching of High Proper-motion Stars in Gaia DR2 and Photometric Metallicities for ∼1.7 million K and M Dwarfs

We present a Bayesian method to cross-match 5,827,988 high proper-motion Gaia sources (μ > 40 mas yr{sup −1}) to various photometric surveys: Two Micron All Sky Survey, AllWISE data release from the Wide-field Infrared Explorer (WISE) mission, Galaxy Evolution Explorer, Radial Velocity Experiment, Sloan Digital Sky Survey, and Panoramic Survey Telescope and Rapid Response System (Pan-STARRS). To efficiently associate these objects across catalogs, we develop a technique that compares the multidimensional distribution of all sources in the vicinity of each Gaia star to a reference distribution of random field stars obtained by extracting all sources in a region on the sky displaced 2′. This offset preserves the local field stellar density and magnitude distribution, allowing us to characterize the frequency of chance alignments. The resulting catalog with Bayesian probabilities >95% has a marginally higher match rate than current internal Gaia data release 2 (DR2) matches for most catalogs. However, a significant improvement is found with Pan-STARRS, where ∼99.8% of the sample within the Pan-STARRS footprint is recovered, as compared to a low ∼20.8% in Gaia DR2. Using these results, we train a Gaussian process regressor to calibrate two photometric metallicity relationships. For dwarfs of 3500 < T{sub eff} < 5280 K, we use metallicity values of 4378 stars from the Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment and Hejazi et al. to calibrate the relationship, producing results with a 1σ precision of 0.12 dex and few systematic errors. We then indirectly infer the metallicity of 4018 stars with 2850 < T{sub eff} < 3500 K, which are wide companions of primaries whose metallicities are estimated with our first regressor, to produce a relationship with a 1σ precision of 0.21 dex and significant systematic errors. Additional work is needed to better remove unresolved binaries from this second sample to reduce these systematic errors.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Scaled Vecchia Approximation for Fast Computer-Model Emulation

Many scientific phenomena are studied using computer experiments consisting of multiple runs of a computer model while varying the input settings. Gaussian processes (GPs) are a popular tool for the analysis of computer experiments, enabling interpolation between input settings, but direct GP inference is computationally infeasible for large datasets. We adapt and extend a powerful class of GP methods from spatial statistics to enable the scalable analysis and emulation of large computer experiments. Specifically, we apply Vecchia’s ordered conditional approximation in a transformed input space, with each input scaled according to how strongly it relates to the computer-model response. The scaling is learned from the data by estimating parameters in the GP covariance function using Fisher scoring. Our methods are highly scalable, enabling estimation, joint prediction, and simulation in near-linear time in the number of model runs. In several numerical examples, our approach substantially outperformed existing methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Multi-objective Bayesian optimization of ferroelectric materials with interfacial control for memory and energy storage applications

Optimization of materials’ performance for specific applications often requires balancing multiple aspects of materials’ functionality. Even for the cases where a generative physical model of material behavior is known and reliable, this often requires search over multidimensional function space to identify low-dimensional manifold corresponding to the required Pareto front. In this work, we introduce the multi-objective Bayesian optimization (MOBO) workflow for the ferroelectric/antiferroelectric performance optimization for memory and energy storage applications based on the numerical solution of the Ginzburg–Landau equation with electrochemical or semiconducting boundary conditions. MOBO is a low computational cost optimization tool for expensive multi-objective functions, where we update posterior surrogate Gaussian process models from prior evaluations and then select future evaluations from maximizing an acquisition function. Using the parameters for a prototype bulk antiferroelectric (PbZrO 3 ), we first develop a physics-driven decision tree of target functions from the loop structures. We further develop a physics-driven MOBO architecture to explore multidimensional parameter space and build Pareto-frontiers by maximizing two target functions jointly—energy storage and loss. This approach allows for rapid initial materials and device parameter selection for a given application and can be further expanded toward the active experiment setting. The associated notebooks provide both the tutorial on MOBO and allow us to reproduce the reported analyses and apply them to other systems (https://github.com/arpanbiswas52/MOBO_AFI_Supplements).

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Predicting concrete compressive strength using hybrid ensembling of surrogate machine learning models

This study aims to implement a hybrid ensemble surrogate machine learning technique in predicting the compressive strength (CS) of concrete, an important parameter used for durability design and service life prediction of concrete structures in civil engineering projects. For this purpose, an experimental database consisting of 1030 records has been compiled from the machine learning repository of the University of California, Irvine. The database was used to train and validate four conventional machine learning (CML) models, namely Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Linear and Non-Linear Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS-L and MARS-C), Gaussian Process Regression (GPR), and Minimax Probability Machine Regression (MPMR). Subsequently, the predicted outputs of CML models were combined and trained using ANN to construct the Hybrid Ensemble Model (HENSM). It is observed that the proposed HENSM produces higher predictive accuracy compared to the CML models used in the present study. The predictive performance of all models for CS prediction was compared using the testing dataset and it is found that the HENSM model attained the highest predictive accuracy in both phases. Based on the experimental results, the newly constructed HENSM model is very potential to be a new alternative in handling the overfitting issues of CML models and hence, can be used to predict the concrete CS, including the design of less polluting and more sustainable concrete constructions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

MOOSE ProbML: Parallelized probabilistic machine learning and uncertainty quantification for computational energy applications

Here, this paper presents the development and demonstration of massively parallel probabilistic machine learning (ML) and uncertainty quantification (UQ) capabilities within the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE), an open-source computational platform for parallel finite element and finite volume analyses. In addressing the computational expense and uncertainties inherent in complex multiphysics simulations, this paper integrates Gaussian process (GP) variants, active learning, Bayesian inverse UQ, adaptive forward UQ, Bayesian optimization, evolutionary optimization, and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) within MOOSE. It also elaborates on the interaction among key MOOSE systems — Sampler, MultiApp, Reporter, and Surrogate — in enabling these capabilities. The modularity offered by these systems enables development of a multitude of probabilistic ML and UQ algorithms in MOOSE. Example code demonstrations include parallel active learning and parallel Bayesian inference via active learning. The impact of these developments is illustrated through five applications relevant to computational energy applications: UQ of nuclear fuel fission product release, using parallel active learning Bayesian inference; very rare events analysis in nuclear microreactors using active learning; advanced manufacturing process modeling using multi-output GPs (MOGPs) and dimensionality reduction; fluid flow using deep GPs (DGPs); and tritium transport model parameter optimization for fusion energy, using batch Bayesian optimization. These capabilities are part of the MOOSE framework.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Predictions of Boron Phase Stability Using an Efficient Bayesian Machine Learning Interatomic Potential

Thermodynamic phase stability of three elemental boron allotropes, i.e., α-B, β-B, and γ-B, was investigated using a Bayesian interatomic potential trained via a sparse Gaussian process (SGP). SGP potentials trained with datasets from on-the-fly active learning achieve quantum mechanical level accuracy when employed in molecular dynamics simulations to predict wide-ranging thermodynamic, structural, and vibrational properties. The simulated phase diagram (500~1400 K and 0~16 GPa) agrees with experimental measurements. The SGP-based MD simulations also successfully predicted that the B13 defect is critical in stabilizing β-B below 700 K. At higher temperatures, the entropy becomes the dominant factor, making β-B the more stable phase over α-B. Furthermore, this Letter demonstrates that SGP potentials based on a training set consisting of defect-free-only systems could make correct predictions of defect-related phenomena in solid-state crystals, paving the path to investigate crystal phase stability and transitions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Efficient Reliability Analysis using Generalized Multifidelity Modeling and Explainable Active Learning

To assess the reliability of critical technologies like nuclear plants and infrastructure systems and improve the robustness of design, engineers have to quantify the uncertainties surrounding the system behavior accurately. However, the complexity of the problem can make standard reliability analysis algorithms prohibitively expensive, primarily due to the high computational cost of estimating the system response at each iteration. This cost can be greatly reduced by using multi-fidelity modeling and machine learning to build a surrogate model to replace the expensive response function. We propose a general and robust method for building surrogates from multiple Low Fidelity (LF) models coupled with machine learning to retain accuracy. Our framework first constructs “Corrected Low Fidelity models” (CLFs) by coupling a High Fidelity (HF) model inferred Gaussian Process correction term with each of the LF models. It then uses the correction terms to assign model probabilities to each of these CLFs in an explainable way before using them to assemble the final surrogate. No assumptions are made about the type of the LF models or their correlation with the HF model. The proposed surrogate modeling framework is used within the subset simulation algorithm (a variance-reduced MCMC-based reliability analysis algorithm) for enhanced efficiency. Additionally, an active learning step is added to the algorithm to adaptively decide when the surrogate is not sufficiently accurate, at which point the HF model is called and used to refine the surrogate. Through a frame buckling example, our method is shown to be highly efficient at reducing the expensive HF model calls while accurately estimating the failure probability.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

TESS Hunt for Young and Maturing Exoplanets (THYME). II. A 17 Myr Old Transiting Hot Jupiter in the Sco-Cen Association

We present the discovery of a transiting hot Jupiter orbiting HIP 67522 (T {sub eff} ∼ 5650 K; M {sub *} ∼ 1.2M {sub ⊙}) in the 10–20 Myr old Sco-Cen OB association. We identified the transits in the TESS data using our custom notch filter planet search pipeline and characterize the system with additional photometry from Spitzer; spectroscopy from SOAR/Goodman, SALT/HRS, LCOGT/NRES, and SMARTS/CHIRON; and speckle imaging from SOAR/HRCam. We model the photometry as a periodic Gaussian process with transits to account for stellar variability and find an orbital period of 6.9596{sub −0.000015}{sup +0.000016} days and radius of 10.02{sub −0.53}{sup +0.54} R {sub ⊕}. We also identify a single transit of an additional candidate planet with radius 8.01{sub −0.71}{sup +0.75} R {sub ⊕} that has an orbital period of ≳23 days. The validated planet HIP 67522b is currently the youngest transiting hot Jupiter discovered and is an ideal candidate for transmission spectroscopy and radial velocity follow-up studies, while also demonstrating that some young giant planets either form in situ at small orbital radii or else migrate promptly from formation sites farther out in the disk.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Deconvoluting thermomechanical effects in X-ray diffraction data using machine learning

X-ray diffraction is ideal for probing the sub-surface state during complex or rapid thermomechanical loading of crystalline materials. However, challenges arise as the size of diffraction volumes increases due to spatial broadening and because of the inability to deconvolute the effects of different lattice deformation mechanisms. Here, we present a novel approach that uses combinations of physics-based modeling and machine learning to deconvolve thermal and mechanical elastic strains for diffraction data analysis. The method builds on a previous effort to extract thermal strain distribution information from diffraction data. The new approach is applied to extract the evolution of the thermomechanical state during laser melting of an Inconel 625 wall specimen which produces significant residual stress upon cooling. A combination of heat transfer and fluid flow, elasto-plasticity and X-ray diffraction simulations is used to generate training data for machine-learning (Gaussian process regression, GPR) models that map diffracted intensity distributions to underlying thermomechanical strain fields. First-principles density functional theory is used to determine accurate temperature-dependent thermal expansion and elastic stiffness used for elasto-plasticity modeling. The trained GPR models are found to be capable of deconvoluting the effects of thermal and mechanical strains, in addition to providing information about underlying strain distributions, even from complex diffraction patterns with irregularly shaped peaks.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Activity coefficient acquisition with thermodynamics–informed active learning for phase diagram construction

This work explores the use of thermodynamics-informed Gaussian processes (GPs) and active learning (AL) to model activity coefficients and construct phase diagrams. Relying on synthetic data generated from an excess Gibbs energy model, GPs were found to accurately describe the activity coefficients of several binary mixtures across large composition and temperature ranges. Moreover, GPs could estimate their own uncertainty and identify composition/temperature regions where activity coefficient data provide the most information to the models. This was leveraged to build AL algorithms targeted at modeling phase equilibria. In many cases, a single active-learning-acquired data point was sufficient to describe the phase diagrams studied. Lastly, the ability of AL to greatly reduce the amount of data needed to obtain accurate models was further verified on experimental case studies, namely individual ion activity coefficients, the solid–liquid and vapor–liquid equilibrium of deep eutectic solvents, and phase equilibria in ternary mixtures.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Simulation driven adaptive sampling for neutron-diffraction based strain mapping of additively manufactured parts

Neutron diffraction based strain mapping is a useful technique for measuring residual strains in additively manufactured (AM) metal parts. The measurement is traditionally done by scanning the sample in a point-wise raster pattern to extract the strain at each position. Since the overall scan can span several hours, adaptive sampling approaches using Bayesian optimization based on Gaussian process (BO-GP) regression have been introduced—demonstrating that even with a fraction of the typically made measurements the dominant strain patterns in the sample can be reconstructed. However, the parameters of the BO-GP algorithm have to be carefully chosen for best performance, and the movement time between arbitrary points can offset the time savings from a reduced number of measurement locations. In this paper, we propose algorithms to refine the BO-GP based methods by using simulations of strain patterns in AM parts based on the materials and the process used to print them. We demonstrate that the simulated strain patterns can be used to help choose better parameters for the BO-GP based framework—leading to low reconstruction error for the final strain pattern. Furthermore, we show that the strain mapping experiment can be initialized with a sampling pattern learnt from the simulation data and ordered to reduce movement time, dramatically enabling reduction in the overall time required to run the baseline BO-GP method.

Gaussian process regression↗
DOE OSTI2025

GPR_calculator: An on-the-fly surrogate model to accelerate massive nudged elastic band calculations

We present GPR_calculator, a package based on Python and C++ programming languages to build an on-the-fly surrogate model using Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) to approximate computationally expensive electronic structure calculations. The key idea is to dynamically train a GPR model during the simulation that can accurately predict energies and forces with uncertainty quantification. When the uncertainty is high, the costly electronic structure calculation is performed to obtain the ground truth data, which is then used to update the GPR model. To illustrate the effectiveness of GPR_calculator, we demonstrate its application in Nudged Elastic Band (NEB) simulations of surface diffusion and reactions, achieving 3-10 times acceleration compared to pure ab initio calculations. The source code is available at https://github.com/MaterSim/GPR_calculator.

Gaussian process regression↗
DOE OSTI2023

Adaptive sampling for accelerating neutron diffraction-based strain mapping *

Abstract Neutron diffraction is a useful technique for mapping residual strains in dense metal objects. The technique works by placing an object in the path of a neutron beam, measuring the diffracted signals and inferring the local lattice strain values from the measurement. In order to map the strains across the entire object, the object is stepped one position at a time in the path of the neutron beam, typically in raster order, and at each position a strain value is estimated. Typical dwell times at neutron diffraction instruments result in an overall measurement that can take several hours to map an object that is several tens of centimeters in each dimension at a resolution of a few millimeters, during which the end users do not have an estimate of the global strain features and are at risk of incomplete information in case of instruments outages. In this paper, we propose an object adaptive sampling strategy to measure the significant points first. We start with a small initial uniform set of measurement points across the object to be mapped, compute the strain in those positions and use a machine learning technique to predict the next position to measure in the object. Specifically, we use a Bayesian optimization based on a Gaussian process regression method to infer the underlying strain field from a sparse set of measurements and predict the next most informative positions to measure based on estimates of the mean and variance in the strain fields estimated from the previously measured points. We demonstrate our real-time measure-infer-predict workflow on additively manufactured steel parts—demonstrating that we can get an accurate strain estimate even with 30%–40% of the typical number of measurements—leading the path to faster strain mapping with useful real-time feedback. We emphasize that the proposed method is general and can be used for fast mapping of other material properties such as phase fractions from time-consuming point-wise neutron measurements.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Autonomous Nanoparticle Synthesis Guided by In Situ Multiscale Structural Characterization

Autonomous synthesis platforms promise rapid exploration of vast parameter spaces; yet, integrating in situ structural characterization in closed-loop synthesis optimization remains challenging. We demonstrate a realization of such a closed-loop platform coupled with a droplet-flow microreactor, in situ X-ray scattering methods (SAXS/WAXS), and Gaussian process optimization to synthesize citrate-reduced Au nanoparticles with targeted characteristics. The system efficiently explored ∼19,000 synthesis recipes through 365 experiments, achieving precise control over size (4–60 nm) and polydispersity (σ < 0.11) across large citrate/gold ratios, exceeding traditional synthesis boundaries (1–10). Beyond confirming classical Turkevich–Frens trends, partial-dependence analysis revealed strong nonlinear coupling among precursor, citrate, and pH effects. Combining quantitative SAXS/WAXS analysis with electron microscopy characterization, we uncovered that crystallite size (d c ) and particle size (d) follow d c = 0.18d + β, where synthesis chemistry controls the intercept β while maintaining a universal slope. This parallel-band structure enables independent tuning of crystallite domain size at fixed particle diameter through a combination of chloride, gold precursor, citrate, and pH contributions (cross-validated Spearman ρ = 0.7 ± 0.1). High-resolution electron microscopy shows multiple lattice-fringe orientations within single particles, directly confirming polycrystalline domains and the ability to tune d c at the fixed d. The platform’s validation includes indistinguishable static versus flowing measurements, stable droplet transport at 100 °C, and <5% run-to-run variation, establishing a robust framework for mapping and controlling multiscale nanoparticle structure across expansive chemical spaces. In conclusion, the developed closed-loop platform can be applied to a borad range of nanosyntheis processes.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Combining High-Throughput Experiments and Active Learning to Characterize Deep Eutectic Solvents

The high tunability of deep eutectic solvents (DESs) stems from the ease of changing their precursors and relative compositions. However, measuring the physicochemical properties across large composition and temperature ranges, necessary to properly design target-specific DESs, is tedious and error-prone and represents a bottleneck in the advancement and scalability of DES-based applications. As such, active learning (AL) methodologies based on Gaussian processes (GPs) were developed in this work to minimize the experimental effort necessary to characterize DESs. Owing to its importance for large-scale applications, the reduction of DES viscosity through the addition of a low-molecular-weight solvent was explored as a case study. A high-throughput experimental screening was initially performed on nine different ternary DESs. Then, GPs were successfully trained to predict DES viscosity from its composition and temperature, showcasing the ability of these stochastic, nonparametric models to accurately describe the physicochemical properties of complex mixtures. Finally, the ability of GPs to provide estimates of their own uncertainty was leveraged through an AL framework to minimize the number of data points necessary to obtain accurate viscosity modes. This led to a significant reduction in data requirements, with many systems requiring only five independent viscosity data points to be properly described.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Thinking Bayesian for plasma physicists

Bayesian statistics offers a powerful technique for plasma physicists to infer knowledge from the heterogeneous data types encountered. To explain this power, a simple example, Gaussian Process Regression, and the application of Bayesian statistics to inverse problems are explained. The likelihood is the key distribution because it contains the data model, or theoretic predictions, of the desired quantities. By using prior knowledge, the distribution of the inferred quantities of interest based on the data given can be inferred. Because it is a distribution of inferred quantities given the data and not a single prediction, uncertainty quantification is a natural consequence of Bayesian statistics. The benefits of machine learning in developing surrogate models for solving inverse problems are discussed, as well as progress in quantitatively understanding the errors that such a model introduces.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗