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At least 325 records · Page 18

Small error dynamics and the predictability of atmospheric flows

In this paper, linear small-error theory is applied to the study of weather predictability. A simple baroclinic shear model and a barotropic channel model with a localized jet are used as examples. It is shown that increase in error on synoptic forecast time scales is controlled by rapidly growing perturbations that are not of normal mode form. Unpredictable regimes are not necessarily associated with larger exponential growth rates than are relatively more predictable regimes. Model problems illustrating baroclinic and barotropic dynamics suggest that asymptotic measures of divergence in phase space, while applicable in the limit of infinite time, may not be appropriate over time intervals addressed by present synoptic forecast.

Farrell, Brian F.↗

Modeling reality

Although powerful computers have allowed complex physical and manmade hardware systems to be modeled successfully, we have encountered persistent problems with the reliability of computer models for systems involving human learning, human action, and human organizations. This is not a misfortune; unlike physical and manmade systems, human systems do not operate under a fixed set of laws. The rules governing the actions allowable in the system can be changed without warning at any moment, and can evolve over time. That the governing laws are inherently unpredictable raises serious questions about the reliability of models when applied to human situations. In these domains, computers are better used, not for prediction and planning, but for aiding humans. Examples are systems that help humans speculate about possible futures, offer advice about possible actions in a domain, systems that gather information from the networks, and systems that track and support work flows in organizations.

Denning, Peter J.↗

End-effector for robotic assembly of welded truss structures in space

In June 1987, work was initiated at LaRC on end-effectors and preloaded joints for robotic truss assembly. This is part of an on-going research effort centered on a test facility that assembles 1 inch x 2 m identical struts into an 8 m diameter x 1.5 m deep platform truss. A detailed description of the test facility was published. The end-effector being used for the LaRC assembly demonstration is quite suitable for the Precision Segmented Reflector or other precision applications. These require high stiffness provided by mechanical joint preloads. Stiffness obtained in this manner is only required and provided over a load range far less than the ultimate strength of the strut tubes. Beyond this useful range, truss behavior is somewhat unpredictable. Mechanically preloaded joints of this type are less suitable for applications such as the Aero Brake where predictable strength and stiffness are required over a greater fraction of the load bearing capacity of component parts. Preliminary studies of the Aerobrake support truss indicate that struts of at least 3 different diameters and various lengths would improve performance. The double-ended end-effector currently in service is designed for only one diameter and length. Anticipated single-ended versions can accommodate varying lengths but not multiple diameters. Tradeoff considerations for welded joints relative to their mechanically preloaded counterparts are presented. Conclusions from this research are as follows: (1) repair by cut and re-weld on the original weld site should be research; (2) welded joints, though repairable, should not be used where high repair frequencies are anticipated; and (3) welded joints should be considered for an Aero Brake truss.

Brewer, William V.↗

An architecture for the development of real-time fault diagnosis systems using model-based reasoning

Presented here is an architecture for implementing real-time telemetry based diagnostic systems using model-based reasoning. First, we describe Paragon, a knowledge acquisition tool for offline entry and validation of physical system models. Paragon provides domain experts with a structured editing capability to capture the physical component's structure, behavior, and causal relationships. We next describe the architecture of the run time diagnostic system. The diagnostic system, written entirely in Ada, uses the behavioral model developed offline by Paragon to simulate expected component states as reflected in the telemetry stream. The diagnostic algorithm traces causal relationships contained within the model to isolate system faults. Since the diagnostic process relies exclusively on the behavioral model and is implemented without the use of heuristic rules, it can be used to isolate unpredicted faults in a wide variety of systems. Finally, we discuss the implementation of a prototype system constructed using this technique for diagnosing faults in a science instrument. The prototype demonstrates the use of model-based reasoning to develop maintainable systems with greater diagnostic capabilities at a lower cost.

Hall, Gardiner A.↗

Optimistic barrier synchronization

Barrier synchronization is fundamental operation in parallel computation. In many contexts, at the point a processor enters a barrier it knows that it has already processed all the work required of it prior to synchronization. The alternative case, when a processor cannot enter a barrier with the assurance that it has already performed all the necessary pre-synchronization computation, is treated. The problem arises when the number of pre-sychronization messages to be received by a processor is unkown, for example, in a parallel discrete simulation or any other computation that is largely driven by an unpredictable exchange of messages. We describe an optimistic O(log sup 2 P) barrier algorithm for such problems, study its performance on a large-scale parallel system, and consider extensions to general associative reductions as well as associative parallel prefix computations.

Nicol, David M.↗

Robot Avoids Collisions With Obstacles

Developmental robot equipped with infrared sensors and control system acting in concert to enable manipulator arm to move around obstacles. Robot avoids collisions with other objects, even when moving in unpredictable ways. Control system requires no prior knowledge of environment.

Cheung, Edward↗

Transforming Vectors Measured By Noncoaligned Instruments

Method for computing relationships between coordinate axes of two vector-measuring instruments not aligned with each other, one need only measure two nonparallel vectors u and v simultaneously in both coordinate systems. These measurements provide all data needed to compute transformation of any vector from one coordinate system to other. Particularly useful in computing alignments and transformations between accelerometers, gyroscopes, and instruments mounted on platforms subjected to vibrations, thermal strains, and other distortions causing alignments to vary unpredictably with time.

Ritter, James R.↗

Impact origin of the Sudbury structure: Evolution of a theory

This paper reviews the origin, development, and present status of the widely accepted theory, proposed by Robert S. Dietz in 1962, that the Sudbury structure was formed by meteoritic or asteroidal impact. The impact theory for the origin of the Sudbury structure seems supported by a nearly conclusive body of evidence. However, even assuming an impact origin to be correct, at least three major questions require further study: (1) the original size and shape of the crater, before tectonic deformation and erosion; (2) the source of the melt now forming the Sudbury Igneous Complex; and (3) the degree, if any, to which the Ni-Cu-platinum group elements are meteoritic. The history of the impact theory illustrates several under-appreciated aspects of scientific research: (1) the importance of cross-fertilization between space research and terrestrial geology; (2) the role of the outsider in stimulating thinking by insiders; (3) the value of small science, at least in the initial stages of an investigation, Dietz's first field work having been at his own expense; and (4) the value of analogies (here, between the Sudbury Igneous Complex and the maria), which although incorrect in major aspects, may trigger research on totally new lines. Finally, the Sudbury story illustrates the totally unpredictable and, by implication, unplannable nature of basic research, in that insight to the origin of the world's then-greatest Ni deposit came from the study of tektites and the Moon.

Lowman, Paul D., Jr.↗

Paradigm lost: Venus crater depths and the role of gravity in crater modification

Previous to Magellan, a convincing case had been assembled that predicted that complex impact craters on Venus were considerably shallower than their counterparts on Mars, Mercury, the Moon, and perhaps even Earth. This was fueled primarily by the morphometric observation that, for a given diameter (D), crater depth (d) seems to scale inversely with surface gravity for the other planets in the inner solar system. The unpredicted depth of fresh impact craters on Venus argues against a simple inverse relationship between surface gravity and crater depth. Factors that could contribute to deep craters on Venus include (1) more efficient excavation on Venus, possibly reflecting rheological effects of the hot venusian environment; (2) more melting and efficient removal of melt from the crater cavity; and (3) enhanced ejection of material out of the crater, possibly as a result of entrainment in an atmosphere set in motion by the passage of the projectile. The broader issue raised by the venusian crater depths is whether surface gravity is the predominant influence on crater depths on any planet. While inverse gravity scaling of crater depths has been a useful paradigm in planetary cratering, the venusian data do not support this model and the terrestrial data are equivocal at best. The hypothesis that planetary gravity is the primary influence over crater depths and the paradigm that terrestrial craters are shallow should be reevaluated.

Sharpton, Virgil L.↗

Problem footprints in Magellan altimetry data

The intensity, time-delay, and frequency content of radar echoes from the Magellan altimetry system are reduced to several parameters that are of great use in addressing many geological issues of the surface of Venus. These parameters include planetary radius, power reflection coefficient (reflectivity, both uncorrected and corrected for diffuse scattering), rms slope, and scattering functions (the behavior of backscatter as a function of incidence angle). Because the surface of Venus often reflects radio energy in unpredictable ways, models of radar scattering and their associated algorithms occasionally fail to accurately solve for the above surface parameters. Methods for identifying possible 'problem' altimetry data footprints, and techniques for resolving some key ambiguities are presented.

Plaut, Jeffrey J.↗

Acquisition and production of skilled behavior in dynamic decision-making tasks

This status report consists of a thesis entitled 'Ecological Task Analysis: A Method for Display Enhancements.' Previous use of various analysis processes for the purpose of display interface design or enhancement has run the risk of failing to improve user performance due to the analysis resulting in only a sequencial listing of user tasks. Adopting an ecological approach to performing the task analysis, however, may result in the necessary modeling of an unpredictable and variable task domain required to improve user performance. Kirlik has proposed an Ecological Task Analysis framework which is designed for this purpose. It is the purpose of this research to measure this framework's effectiveness at enhancing display interfaces in order to improve user performance. Following the proposed framework, an ecological task analysis of experienced users of a complex and dynamic laboratory task, Star Cruiser, was performed. Based on this analysis, display enhancements were proposed and implemented. An experiment was then conducted to compare this new version of Star Cruiser to the original. By measuring user performance at different tasks, it was determined that during early sessions, use of the enhanced display contributed to better user performance compared to that achieved using the original display. Furthermore, the results indicate that the enhancements proposed as a result of the ecological task analysis affected user performance differently depending on whether they are enhancements which aid in the selection of a possible action or in the performance of an action. Generalizations of these findings to larger, more complex systems were avoided since the analysis was only performed on this one particular system.

Kirlik, Alex↗

Driving a car with custom-designed fuzzy inferencing VLSI chips and boards

Vehicle control in a-priori unknown, unpredictable, and dynamic environments requires many calculational and reasoning schemes to operate on the basis of very imprecise, incomplete, or unreliable data. For such systems, in which all the uncertainties can not be engineered away, approximate reasoning may provide an alternative to the complexity and computational requirements of conventional uncertainty analysis and propagation techniques. Two types of computer boards including custom-designed VLSI chips were developed to add a fuzzy inferencing capability to real-time control systems. All inferencing rules on a chip are processed in parallel, allowing execution of the entire rule base in about 30 microseconds, and therefore, making control of 'reflex-type' of motions envisionable. The use of these boards and the approach using superposition of elemental sensor-based behaviors for the development of qualitative reasoning schemes emulating human-like navigation in a-priori unknown environments are first discussed. Then how the human-like navigation scheme implemented on one of the qualitative inferencing boards was installed on a test-bed platform to investigate two control modes for driving a car in a-priori unknown environments on the basis of sparse and imprecise sensor data is described. In the first mode, the car navigates fully autonomously, while in the second mode, the system acts as a driver's aid providing the driver with linguistic (fuzzy) commands to turn left or right and speed up or slow down depending on the obstacles perceived by the sensors. Experiments with both modes of control are described in which the system uses only three acoustic range (sonar) sensor channels to perceive the environment. Simulation results as well as indoors and outdoors experiments are presented and discussed to illustrate the feasibility and robustness of autonomous navigation and/or safety enhancing driver's aid using the new fuzzy inferencing hardware system and some human-like reasoning schemes which may include as little as six elemental behaviors embodied in fourteen qualitative rules.

Pin, Francois G.↗

Image analysis of the AXAF VETA-I x ray mirror

Initial core scan data of the VETA-I x-ray mirror proved disappointing, showing considerable unpredicted image structure and poor measured FWHM. 2-D core scans were performed, providing important insight into the nature of the distortion. Image deconvolutions using a ray traced model PSF was performed successfully to reinforce our conclusion regarding the origin of the astigmatism. A mechanical correction was made to the optical structure, and the mirror was tested successfully (FWHM 0.22 arcsec) as a result.

Freeman, Mark D.↗

Track structure model for damage to mammalian cell cultures during solar proton events

Solar proton events (SPEs) occur infrequently and unpredictably, thus representing a potential hazard to interplanetary space missions. Biological damage from SPEs will be produced principally through secondary electron production in tissue, including important contributions due to delta rays from nuclear reaction products. We review methods for estimating the biological effectiveness of SPEs using a high energy proton model and the parametric cellular track model. Results of the model are presented for several of the historically largest flares using typical levels and body shielding.

Cucinotta, F. A.↗

Evaluation of Baldwin-Barth turbulence model with thin-layer Navier-Stokes computation of an axisymmetric afterbody-exhaust jet flowfield

Axisymmetric steady flowfield over a steep circular arc afterbody with a choked exhaust jet in a subsonic freestream is numerically investigated using overflow code, developed by NASA Ames. The accuracy of Baldwin-Barth one-equation turbulence model for the computation of separated flow and plume shear layers is assessed by a comparison of predictions with available measurements from NASA Langley. The results show that the Baldwin-Barth turbulence model performs better than the Baldwin-Lomax algebraic model in predicting the surface pressure distribution in the separated flow region of the afterbody. In the jet mixing layer, the Baldwin-Barth model considerably unpredicts the growth of the shear layer, as does the Baldwin-Lomax model. It is shown that the one-equation turbulence model needs improvement for the prediction of separated flow due to smooth adverse pressure gradient, and mixing layer growth.

Kandula, M.↗

Image analysis of the AXAF VETA-1 X-ray mirror

Initial core scan data of the VETA-1 X-ray mirror proved disappointing, showing considerable unpredicted image structure and poor measured FWHM. 2-D core scans were performed, providing important insight into the nature of the distortion. Image deconvolutions using a raytraced model PSF was performed successfully to reinforce our conclusion regarding the origin of the astigmatism. A mechanical correction was made to the optical structure, and the minor was tested successfully (FWHM 0.22 arcsec) as a result.

Freeman, M.↗

Terminal Model Of Newtonian Dynamics

Paper presents study of theory of Newtonian dynamics of terminal attractors and repellers, focusing on issues of reversibility vs. irreversibility and deterministic evolution vs. probabilistic or chaotic evolution of dynamic systems. Theory developed called "terminal dynamics" emphasizes difference between it and classical Newtonian dynamics. Also holds promise for explaining irreversibility, unpredictability, probabilistic behavior, and chaos in turbulent flows, in thermodynamic phenomena, and in other dynamic phenomena and systems.

Zak, Michail↗

Camelot 3: Habitability criteria space research and design studio

Acknowledging the importance of human beings on a mission to Mars, the University of Puerto Rico studied both psychological and physiological aspects. Different conditions necessary for human health and well-being were considered. As a result, habitability criteria were developed. The criteria are as follows: personal identification; social interaction; unpredictable conditions; contact with nature; mental landscapes; privacy; equalitarian conditions; variety; functionality; sensory stimulation; music and environmental sound; stability and security; comfort; and sense of orientation.

Arroyo, F.↗