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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 325 records · Page 18

Evaluation of Machine Learning and Deep Learning Algorithms for Fire Prediction in Southeast Asia

Vegetation fires are prevalent in South/Southeast Asian countries, making fire prediction crucial due to their potential environmental, economic, and social impacts. Accurate predictions of fires facilitate timely interventions, helping to mitigate uncontrolled fires that can lead to biodiversity loss and air quality issues. In this study, we utilize VIIRS satellite-derived fire data alongside six machine learning and deep learning models—Simple Persistence, Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), CNN-LSTM, and ConvLSTM—to determine the most effective fire prediction model, using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) as the metric. Our results indicate that the CNN model is the most reliable in regions with spatial dependencies, such as Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Timor-Leste, and Thailand. Conversely, the ConvLSTM model excels in countries with complex spatiotemporal dynamics like Laos, Myanmar, and Vietnam. The CNN-LSTM hybrid model also performed well in Cambodia, suggesting a need for a balanced approach in areas requiring both spatial and temporal feature extraction. Furthermore, simpler models like Persistence and MLP showed limitations in capturing dynamic patterns and temporal dependencies. Our findings highlight the importance of evaluating models before implementing any decision support systems (DSS) in fire management. By tailoring models to specific regional fire data, we can enhance prediction accuracy and responsiveness, ultimately improving fire risk management in Southeast Asia and beyond.

Deep learning↗

Large-Scale Solar Development: A Playbook for Southwest Virginia

his playbook is an introductory guide for local governments to facilitate large-scale solar projects in Southwest Virginia. In a region that has a long history of energy production, solar technologies offer enormous potential for economic development and job growth. Large-scale solar can take many forms, including rooftop or ground-mounted installations at local corporate offices, nonprofit organizations, or schools. It can also encompass utility-scale projects over many acres on former agricultural or timberlands, mined lands, or industrial sites. Regardless of the type of project, solar is a widely popular, cost-competitive energy choice that helps create sustainable and prosperous communities. This playbook is directed to municipal and county governments that have an essential role to play in encouraging large-scale solar projects. The first section provides an overview of state and national trends, including recent state legislation that will impact local oversight of solar development. This is followed by an overview of the solar project approval process from a developer’s perspective. The next section is an overview of the state and local permitting process for solar projects, followed by other development considerations such as local tax revenue options, financing incentives, and considerations for solar on brownfields and previously mined lands. The playbook concludes with a step-by-step guide for local governments to facilitate large-scale solar development.This playbook is part of the Solar Workgroup of Southwest Virginia’s effort to bring solar energy and associated jobs to the region. Over the past few years, the workgroup has met with stakeholder groups and crafted a strategy for local solar energy development. The workgroup has collaborated with cities and counties to bring SolSmart designation to eight counties and cities, implemented group purchase campaigns for commercial solar, and led research efforts.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

BETO 2021 Peer Review - Feedstock Evaluation and Biofuels Production Potential

The goal of this project is to provide foundational data, strategic analyses, and outreach related to waste-to-energy (WTE) resources to support further development of the WTE industry. It builds on previous project outcomes, e.g., estimates of quantity, geographic distribution, and prices of wet WTE resources (food waste, sludge, manure, waste fats and oils). The project provides better understanding of the WTE resource potential and economic viability to enable development of new technologies and support strategic decisions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Locating Equitable Solar Opportunities by Census Tract: A Guide to the Screening Tool for Equitable Adoption and Deployment of Solar (STEADy Solar)

The Screening Tool for Equitable Adoption and DeploYment of Solar (STEADy Solar) is a database and mapping tool that indicates locations that may be eligible for the Investment Tax Credit bonus adders defined in the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). The tool combines publicly available information on demographics, solar technical potential, solar economics (modeled net present value), building counts by use-type, and eligibility for tax credit adders. It can be used by states, municipalities, community-based organizations, developers, and researchers to identify sites where solar projects may be economical and where federal incentives may be available to support equitable adoption of solar. This report describes the STEADy dataset and presents high level insights from the data.

census tract↗

Reversible Solid Oxide Fuel Cell Systems for Energy Storage and Hydrogen Production

FuelCell Energy (FCE) studied the performance, design, and economics of a reversible solid-oxide fuel cell/electrolyzer integrated with a natural gas-based electricity generation plant and used as an energy storage system. Increased market penetration of renewable energy is challenging for operators of fossilbased plants which are not suited for quick turndown and ramp-up. Process simulations studies show that with utilization of waste heat from the power plant, a high roundtrip efficiency (RTE) around 70% is possible, providing excellent market potential for this energy storage technology, potentially providing improved economics and lifetime for such power plant. The market potential and economics as a function of production volume are analyzed in detail. FCE is continuing the development and commercialization of its solid oxide technology.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Assessing the Impact of Operational Constraints on the Near-Term Unmanned Aircraft System Traffic Management Supported Market

An economic impact market analysis was conducted for 16 leading sectors of commercial Unmanned Aerial System (UAS) applications predicted to be enabled by 2020 through the NASA UAS Traffic Management (UTM) program. Subject matter experts from seven industries were interviewed to validate concept of operations (ConOps) and market adoption assumptions for each sector. The market analysis was used to estimate direct economic impacts for each sector including serviceable addressable market, capital investment, revenue recovery potential, and operations cost savings. The resultant economic picture distinguishes the agricultural, pipeline and railroad inspection, construction, and maritime sectors of the nascent commercial UAS industry as providing the highest potential economic value in the United States. Sensitivity studies characterized the variability of select UAS sectors economic value to key regulatory or UTM ConOps requirements such as weight, altitude, and flight over populated area constraints. Takeaways from the analysis inform the validation of UTM requirements, technologies and timetables from a commercial market need and value viewpoint. This work concluded in August 2015 and reflects the state of the UAS industry and market projections at that time.

Air Traffic Management↗

Limits to forests-based mitigation in integrated assessment modelling: global potentials and impacts under constraining factors

Forests-based measures such as afforestation/reforestation (A/R) and reducing deforestation (RDF) are considered promising options to mitigate climate change, yet their mitigation potentials are limited by economic and biophysical factors that are largely uncertain. The range of mitigation potential estimates from integrated assessment models raises concerns about the capacity of land systems to provide realistic, cost-effective and permanent land-based mitigation. We use the Global Change Analysis Model to quantify the economic mitigation potential of forests-based measures by simulating a climate policy including a tax on greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture, forestry, and other land uses. In addition, we assess how constraining unused arable land (UAL) availability, forestland expansion rates, and global bioenergy demand may influence the forests-based mitigation potential by simulating scenarios with alternative combinations of constraints. Results show that the average forests-based mitigation potential in 2020–2050 increases from 738 MtCO 2 .yr -1 through a forestland increase of 86 Mha in the fully constrained scenario to 1394 MtCO 2 .yr -1 through a forestland increase of 146 Mha when all constraints are relaxed. Regional potentials in terms of A/R and RDF differ strongly between scenarios: unconstrained forest expansion rates mostly increase A/R potentials in northern regions (e.g., +120 MtCO 2 .yr -1 in North America); while unconstrained UAL conversion and low bioenergy demand mostly increase RDF potentials in tropical regions (e.g., +76 and +68 MtCO 2 .yr -1 in Southeast Asia, respectively). This study shows that forests-based mitigation is limited by many factors that constrain the rates of land use change across regions. These factors, often overlooked in modelling exercises, should be carefully addressed for understanding the role of forests in global climate mitigation and defining pledges towards the Paris Agreement.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Low cost solar array project: Experimental process system development unit for producing semiconductor-grade silicon using silane-to-silicon process

The design, fabrication, and installation of an experimental process system development unit (EPSDU) were analyzed. Supporting research and development were performed to provide an information data base usable for the EPSDU and for technological design and economical analysis for potential scale-up of the process. Iterative economic analyses were conducted for the estimated product cost for the production of semiconductor grade silicon in a facility capable of producing 1000-MT/Yr.

Source record↗

The bioprocess TEA calculator: An online technoeconomic analysis tool to evaluate the commercial competitiveness of potential bioprocesses

Techno-economic analysis connects R&D, engineering, and business. By linking process parameters to financial metrics, it allows researchers to understand the factors controlling the potential success of their technologies. In particular, metabolic and bioprocess engineering, as disciplines, are aimed at engineering cells to synthesize products with an ultimate goal of commercial deployment. As a result it is critical to be able to understand the potential impact of strain engineering strategies and lab scale results on commercial potential. To date, while numerous techno-economic models have been developed for a wide variety of bioprocesses, they have either required process engineering expertise to adapt and/or use or do not directly connect financial outcomes to potential strain engineering results. Despite the clear value of techno-economic analysis, these challenges have made it inaccessible to many researchers. Furthermore, the tool, currently focused on aerobic fermentation processes, can be used to understand the impact of fermentation level metrics on the commercial potential of a bioprocess for the production of a wide variety of organic molecules. Using the calculator, I review the commercially relevant targets for an aerobic bioprocess for the production of diethyl malonate.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Microgrid's Role in Enhancing the Security and Flexibility of City Energy Systems

Smart cities depend on flexible and secure energy systems to ensure resilient power for critical infrastructure; however, recent weather-related events and cyberattacks have highlighted weaknesses in our energy systems, with the potential for widespread economic and security impacts. As stated by the Executive Office of the President, "the resilience of the US electric grid is a key part of the nation's defense against severe weather." To address the energy delivery security challenge, microgrids are rising as a viable solution that enhances the flexibility and resilience of the distribution grid and boosts the reliability of the local supply for the end-user. Traditionally, high capital investment has been a barrier to large-scale adoption of microgrid technology. Understanding the flexibility and resilience benefits of microgrids and accounting for the associated value streams can make the microgrid's proposition economically viable. In this chapter, microgrids' utility and their potential to serve as a flexible and resilient resource for the utility grid by providing capabilities such as peak shaving, demand response, and frequency regulation is presented. Moreover, other value streams, such as (1) their ability to island during a disaster and sustain critical loads which makes them a robust resilience solution for end-users, in the event of the utility grid outage and (2) microgrids also provide a flexible platform for integrating distributed energy resources in conjunction with storage and conventional generation technologies, strengthen microgrid's role in reducing the over-arching goal of emission reduction. Given the myriad of benefits associated with microgrids, we present strategies which can be employed for making microgrid itself resilient against physical and cyberthreats by employing hardware, software, and personnel training solutions to operate the microgrid before, during, and after a potential disaster. This chapter, thus, provides a holistic study of the microgrid as a resilience resource, for the utility grid, and a self-contained end-user for the end-user.

cyber-physical system↗

Controlling Structural, Electronic, and Energy Flow Dynamics of Catalytic Processes through Tailored Nanostructures

MoS 2 (molybdenum disulfide) is a highly-versatile catalyst material for support of numerous reactions from hydrodesulfurization and denitrogenation to the focus of this renewal proposal: hydrogenation of CO/CO 2 towards (higher) alcohols. At the same time, MoS 2 is a non-toxic, environmentally-benign and rather inert material- which under ambient conditions for some time has served as a lubricant and, more recently, as next-generation electronic material. The apparent contrast between inertness and stability in ambient, and catalytic activity under reactive conditions is puzzling and calls for a synergistic theoretical and experimental investigation with the long-term objective of enabling the rational design of MoS 2 -based catalysts for alcohol-formation reactions by providing a microscopic understanding of the environmental factors that determines site activity and selectivity. Our research project seeks answers to the questions (a) what conformation does MoS 2 adopt under reaction conditions (as opposed to that under ultrahigh vacuum and low temperatures)?; (b) what reaction pathways exist on such a material?; (c) how can the local environment of the active sites be manipulated so as to make MoS 2 an efficient catalyst for production of higher alcohol from syngas? In particular, research strategies will explore how the basal plane composed of sulfur atoms can be activated so as to exhibit a reactivity of its own, by addressing three research targets and building on extensive preliminary and enabling work: (1) vacancies and vacancy aggregates on the basal plane; (2) non-local catalyst transformation through alkali doping, hydrogenation and phase transition; (3) fabrication of a metal-nanoparticle-activated MoS 2 system, in which particle anchoring, reactive sites and pathways as well as selectivity are controlled by design, as an example of predictive development of a catalyst material,. All strategies are directed to improve the efficacy of the key reactive sites and selectivity of chemical pathways by design, to replace the inefficient methodology of trial and error in catalyst development. This research project represents a synergistic combination of computational guidance, foundational surface-science-based experiments and validation under reactive conditions that aims at transformative new insights into the working of MoS 2 -based hydrogenation-catalysts, a topic squarely at the center of the interest of DOE BES. Guided and led by Talat Rahman, a computational physicist, this project will apply density functional theory to understand structure, reaction pathways and chemical potentials associated with MoS 2 -based CO/CO 2 hydrogenation, augmented by kinetic Monte Carlo methods for reaction rates and prefactors as well as ab-initio molecular dynamics for evaluation of thermal stability. Complementary experimental input and validation will originate from co-PI Ludwig Bartels, a physical chemist and materials scientist, whose group focuses on local imaging and preparation of MoS 2 materials, from co-PI Peter Dowben, an experimental physicist, whose group is expert in the spectroscopy of occupied and unoccupied electronic states, and from senior collaborator Michael White of Brookhaven National Laboratory, whose group generates high-resolution electronic and activity information on size-selected well-defined metal chalcogenide clusters. This collaborative effort will enable a comprehensive understanding of the correlation of structural integrity and catalytic activity of MoS 2 in forms ranging from extended films to individual particles with known geometries and binding sites. Alcohol formation from syngas is a rapidly emerging application that has great potential through facile, economic, and decentralized biomass gasification. CO 2 activation is one of the most pressing concerns of our time: increasing CO 2 levels in the atmosphere change the climate and expose the globe to environmental transformations with the potential for enormous economic and societal impact. We will investigate CO/CO 2 hydrogenation via an interdisciplinary research collaboration with established synergy – one that, in accordance with the mission of the DOE, involves accredited Hispanic-Serving Institutions and that, through student exchange with international collaborators and National Labs, will directly benefit a broad spectrum of communities and generate human resources in sciences essential to their future.

2D materials↗

Parcel-Scale Assessment of Rooftop Solar Technical Potential

Understanding the potential for rooftop solar and other distributed energy resources (DERs) to contribute to power system planning is increasingly relevant for cities, utilities, and other planning entities. Such planning efforts typically require an estimate of technical potential, or the feasible technology potential independent of economic considerations. Currently, best-in-class rooftop solar technical potential methods use Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data which can identify each roof plane tilt, azimuth, and unshaded area. However, LiDAR data is not universally available and, even when available, obtaining and processing this data can be expensive. In contrast, parcel-level data is easy to use and widely available as it is generated by jurisdictions to levy property taxes. Such data universally reports building footprint area, which is highly correlated with roof area suitable (developable) for rooftop solar. Moreover, parcel data identifies building end-use, tenure, and other building characteristics not provided by LiDAR. To explore the feasibility of using parcel data to assess technical potential more broadly, we compare estimates using parcel data in Orlando, Florida (HIFLD 2020) to those generated using LiDAR data (Koebrich et al. 2021). We find that the parcel-based method results in accurate technical potential estimates at a block and city-scale, though only after accounting for shading and other factors that derate developable roof area. The results of this study demonstrate a scalable, low-effort approach to assess rooftop solar technical potential for every city and community in the U.S.

census blocks↗

Economic assessment of a multistage surface-heated vacuum membrane distillation process for the treatment of hypersaline produced water

Here, the treatment and disposal of hypersaline produced water remains a challenge, particularly for oil and gas producers in the Permian basin where production wells generate significant amounts of wastewater, and the traditional method of injecting wastewater into disposal wells is coming under increasing scrutiny. Here we investigate the viability of using solar energy to power a multi-stage, surface heated, vacuum membrane distillation (SHVMD) with energy recovery to treat hypersaline produced wastewater from Midland, Texas. Membrane distillation is a process that can desalinate waters with high total dissolved solids concentration, and when incorporated into a system with surface heating and energy recovery can achieve high water recovery rates. Model results show that a 6-stage SHVMD system with a 54.4 % water recovery rate and a gained output ratio (GOR) of 3.28 has the potential to be economically viable when used to treat hypersaline produced water in the Permian basin. Assuming energy costs of $\$0.03$/kWh thermal and $\$0.12$kWh electric , we estimate a project net present value (NPV) of $\$225,525$ and an internal rate of return (IRR) of 13.5 % when an air cooled condensor is used to cool the distillate and a NPV of $\$570,791$ and IRR of 24.52 % when a liquid coooling source is available.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

SMART: Simplified Melting And Rotation-joint Technology

Oil based parabolic trough solar power plants are the most commercially mature CSP technology. However, the upper limit of about 400°C of the current organic heat transfer fluid(HTF)significantly limits the future potential of the technology. Advances in parabolic trough receiver and collector technology have enabled higher operating temperatures of potentially 500°C or above. The search for an improved higher temperature HTF has identified inorganic molten salts, specifically the mix referred to as Solar Salt, a 60:40 mix of sodium nitrate and potassium nitrate salt. However, Solar Salt starts to freeze at about 240°C. This poses a significant challenge for large parabolic trough plants that could have many kilometers of header piping and hundreds of kilometers of receiver piping all filled with molten salt. Plants using molten salt need to be designed to minimize the risk of freezing and to be able to recover from freeze events. Studies and field experiments have shown that this appears to be feasible and the approach appears to have strong economic advantages over conventional trough plants. However, some technical challenges remain related to the use of molten salt in trough solar fields, the cost of the freeze recovery system is significant, and many still question whether the risk of using molten salt is worth the economic upside. In our view, the potential economic upside justifies the continued look at molten salt HTF in parabolic trough plants. The objective of this project was to address the key technical issue remaining, look for opportunities to reduce the cost of the freeze recovery system, and improve the general information and tools available for assessing the design, performance and economics of trough plants using molten salt HTF.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

High-Temperature Heat Pump Model Documentation and Case Studies

High temperature heat pumps (HTHPs) have the potential to serve two valuable functions in the U.S. industry. First, by valorizing and elevating waste heat streams, HTHPs can improve industrial energy efficiency. Second, by electrifying process heat generation, HTHPs can replace combustion technologies with less carbon-intensive sources of energy and reduce industrial greenhouse gas emissions. In certain applications, the combination of increased efficiency, cost savings, and emissions reduction makes HTHPs a promising component of strategies for industrial electrification and clean energy transition. Researchers at NREL have developed a HTHP model. This model has both a physics-based performance estimation component and an economic evaluation component designed to demonstrate the potential economic competitiveness of HTHPs. This document has three main sections. First, an overview of HTHPs is provided as a literature review of relevant information to provide the reader with state-of-the-art information. Second, a description of the HTHP model is provided along with detailed instructions about how to use the model. Third, case studies are provided to showcase the deployment of the HTHP model.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Geologic hydrogen: a review of resource potential, subsurface dynamics, exploration, production, transportation, and research opportunities

Hydrogen is a versatile resource with critical roles in decarbonization, industrial manufacturing, and energy integration. However, most hydrogen today is produced from fossil fuels, resulting in high emissions and energy consumption. Although low-carbon hydrogen production methods, such as steam methane reforming with carbon capture and renewable-powered electrolysis, are advancing, their high costs hinder large-scale deployment. Identifying alternative pathways for producing low-cost, low-emission hydrogen is therefore essential. Geologic hydrogen, referring to natural and stimulated hydrogen generated in the Earth's subsurface, has attracted growing attention as a potential source of sustainable, economically viable, and environmentally favorable hydrogen. This paper provides a comprehensive review of geologic hydrogen, covering its resource potential, origins, migration and trapping mechanisms, exploration techniques, production strategies, and pipeline transportation. It also identifies key knowledge gaps and proposes a roadmap for future research. The review indicates that geologic hydrogen has vast resource potential and can leverage existing subsurface technologies and geophysical exploration methods. However, major challenges persist, including uncertain hydrogen generation rates, limited understanding and control of serpentinization processes, costly transportation infrastructure, the lack of validated techno-economic analysis, and potential social and environmental issues. As the field is still in its early stages, progress will require interdisciplinary collaboration spanning geoscience, engineering, economics, environmental science, and policy and regulation.

42 ENGINEERING↗