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On the characterization of biases arising from methods and approximations used for sensitivity analyses

The preliminary assessment of the performance and safety of advanced reactors, as well as the identification of research and development needs, rely on computer simulations due to the lack of operational experience. Those simulations should be based on verified and validated computational tools, calculation schemes, and nuclear data libraries, and should be accompanied of a proper characterization of the involved uncertainties, providing confidence in the computational-based predictions. Thus, sensitivity and uncertainty studies, together with integral experiments, play an essential role in that process. Sensitivities are then a critical element and guidelines about how to produce accurate enough sensitivities depending on the subsequent analyses to be performed are of interest. The present study addresses the sensitivities biases arising from the use of different nuclear data libraries, computational methods and the assumption of modelling simplifications. Not only sensitivities for multiplication factor but also for safety-relevant reactivity responses have been analyzed. In the study, propagated uncertainties are also included for the considered parameters to illustrate the impact of the sensitivity profiles obtained for each case on the final uncertainty. Then, relevant recommendations are given for sensitivity analyses of highly complex systems. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Study of Material Consolidation at Higher Throughput Parameters in Selective Laser Melting of Inconel 718

Selective Laser Melting (SLM) is a powder bed fusion additive manufacturing process used increasingly in the aerospace industry to reduce the cost, weight, and fabrication time for complex propulsion components. SLM stands poised to revolutionize propulsion manufacturing, but there are a number of technical questions that must be addressed in order to achieve rapid, efficient fabrication and ensure adequate performance of parts manufactured using this process in safety-critical flight applications. Previous optimization studies for SLM using the Concept Laser M1 and M2 machines at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center have centered on machine default parameters. The objective of this work is to characterize the impact of higher throughput parameters (a previously unexplored region of the manufacturing operating envelope for this application) on material consolidation. In phase I of this work, density blocks were analyzed to explore the relationship between build parameters (laser power, scan speed, hatch spacing, and layer thickness) and material consolidation (assessed in terms of as-built density and porosity). Phase II additionally considers the impact of post-processing, specifically hot isostatic pressing and heat treatment, as well as deposition pattern on material consolidation in the same higher energy parameter regime considered in the phase I work. Density and microstructure represent the "first-gate" metrics for determining the adequacy of the SLM process in this parameter range and, as a critical initial indicator of material quality, will factor into a follow-on DOE that assesses the impact of these parameters on mechanical properties. This work will contribute to creating a knowledge base (understanding material behavior in all ranges of the AM equipment operating envelope) that is critical to transitioning AM from the custom low rate production sphere it currently occupies to the world of mass high rate production, where parts are fabricated at a rapid rate with confidence that they will meet or exceed all stringent functional requirements for spaceflight hardware. These studies will also provide important data on the sensitivity of material consolidation to process parameters that will inform the design and development of future flight articles using SLM.

Prater, Tracie↗

Closing the loop: model-predictive control for a closed-circuit reverse osmosis system

This article presents a model-predictive controller (MPC) for the maximization of the energy efficiency of a closed-circuit desalination reverse osmosis (CCRO) system. CCRO is a process for producing drinking water that is based on a cyclic operation with the following two phases: (a) filtration and (b) drain. In this article, we test model predictive control for optimal control of this process. The most important features of our approach are as follows: (a) the selection of a model structure that enables reliable forecasts of the filtration phase (up to 3 h), (b) an on-line model calibration strategy that ensures model forecast reliability, and (c) the satisfaction of equipment safety and operational constraints on the selected setpoints. We challenge this through deliberate introduction of changes in the unmeasured feed concentration and the applied constraints. Our results indicate that frequent model parameter updates are critical to maintain model reliability for MPC purposes. In addition, we illustrate that parameter identifiability is not guaranteed and that deliberate variation in flow rates is necessary even though the process never operates in steady state. Finally, MPC can compute flow rate setpoints that maximize the energy efficiency of the CCRO process while satisfying the applicable equipment and safety constraints.

closed-circuit reverse osmosis↗

Oak Ridge Subcritical Assembly Final Design and Current Progress [Slides]

This presentation shows how ORSA design has moved from conceptual to implementable. Additionally, that the ORSA hands-on experiments will remain subcritical under normal and credible abnormal conditions it is fully assembled k eff = 0.95024 ± 0.0003 and USL = 0.9763. This presentation finds locations will have minimal security and safety basis impact. Available options can meet security criteria for ORSA material and Options will have less mass than the ANS-8.1 single parameter limit for 235 U either by segregation or functioning as its own facility. Further, Locations are feasible for a diversity of students and the implementation of ORSA will improve upon NCSP T&E’s vision to remain adaptable and responsive.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Current Progress of the Final Design of a Subcritical Assembly at Oak Ridge National Laboratory [Slides]

This presentation shows how ORSA design has moved from conceptual to implementable. Additionally, that the ORSA hands-on experiments will remain subcritical under normal and credible abnormal conditions it is fully assembled k eff = 0.95024 ± 0.0003 and USL = 0.9763. This presentation finds locations will have minimal security and safety basis impact. Available options can meet security criteria for ORSA material and Options will have less mass than the ANS-8.1 single parameter limit for 235 U either by segregation or functioning as its own facility. Further, Locations are feasible for a diversity of students and the implementation of ORSA will improve upon NCSP T&E’s vision to remain adaptable and responsive.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

System Identification for Integrated Aircraft Development and Flight Testing [l'Identification Des Systemes Pour le Developpement Integre des Aeronefs et les Essais en Vol]

Over the last decades flight vehicles such as aircraft and helicopters entering service and requiring increased operational effectiveness have with few exceptions experienced prolonged flight test development to achieve full certification. In many cases the original requirements had later to be reduced to enable release to service. The impact on the customer, and manufacturer has been considerable leading to increased costs and or reduced operational capabilities. These costly experiences are largely a result of the flight vehicle not behaving as modelled and designed. The evaluation of flight test data can be used as a tool for validating windtunnel results and mathematical models describing the flight dynamical behaviour. In this sense the uncertainty of important aerodynamic stability and control parameters can be reduced and the confidence of aircraft mathematical models improved. An additional important factor comes from the implementation of active control systems offering the promise of significantly increased flight vehicle performance and operational capability. This approach extends the traditional trade-offs between aerodynamics, structures and propulsion systems to include full- time, full-authority fly-by-wire/light systems. It is imperative that the aerodynamic stability and control parameters of such integrated flight and propulsion control systems have to turn out inflight as predicted, since inherent stability margins will be lower and the flight control system must correct these deficiencies to provide flight critical redundancy and safety. With the methodology of system identification from flight tests it is possible to sense the control inputs and the flight vehicle reactions Such as accelerations, rates and attitudes. The mathematical model, e.g. the model structure and parameters, has to be determined from the relationship of the measured control inputs and the system's responses. The aim of this symposium was to review the present state of the art of flight vehicle system and parameter identification techniques, and to provide a critical appraisal of current methods developed and applied to flight test data in a number of NATO nations. Particular emphasis was placed on practical aspects and lessons learned in order to generate information useful to the flight test community in industry and government agencies. The technical papers share invaluable experience and emphasize the advances of flight vehicle system identification over the last years to the point where confidence and robustness level is now reasonably high. The symposium covered overviews of identification methodologies, flight test techniques, recent aircraft and helicopter application programs, and a session of short papers covering up-to-the-minute flight test results. A final discussion included prepared comments from experts and concluded with key issues learned in the application of system identification and future research needs. The essential benefits to NATO nations can be condensed as follows: More accurate mathematical models for high bandwidth flight control systems, Improved assessment and evaluation of flying qualities, High fidelity mathematical models for flight vehicle development and mission training simulators, and generally, Reduced flight test time and costs.

Advisory Group for Aerospace Research and Developm↗

High frequency power distribution system

The objective of this project was to provide the technology of high frequency, high power transmission lines to the 100 kW power range at 20 kHz frequency. In addition to the necessary design studies, a 150 m long, 600 V, 60 A transmission line was built, tested and delivered for full vacuum tests. The configuration analysis on five alternative configurations resulted in the final selection of the three parallel Litz straps configuration, which gave a virtually concentric design in the electromagnetic sense. Low inductance, low EMI and flexibility in handling are the key features of this configuration. The final design was made after a parametric study to minimize the losses, weight and inductance. The construction of the cable was completed with no major difficulties. The R,L,C parameters measured on the cable agreed well with the calculated values. The corona tests on insulation samples showed a safety factor of 3.

Patel, Mikund R.↗

Prognostics for Systems Health Management - Model and Hybrid Based Approaches. Where are We Heading?

To facilitate and solve the prediction problem, awareness of the current state and health of the system is key, since it is necessary to perform condition-based system health predictions. To accurately predict the future state of any system, it is required to possess knowledge of its current health state and future operational conditional. In case of next generation electric aircrafts, computing remaining flying time is safety-critical, since an aircraft that runs out of power (battery charge) while in the air will eventually lose control leading to catastrophe. In order to tackle and solve the prediction problem, it is essential to have awareness of the current health state of the system, especially since it is necessary to perform condition-based predictions. To be able to predict the future state of the system, it is also required to possess knowledge of the current and future operational conditions and flight profiles for accurate estimation of end-of-discharge (EOD) for the batteries. Similar framework can be implemented to other complex systems and subsystems. Our research approach is to develop a system level health monitoring safety indicator which runs estimation and prediction algorithms to estimate remaining useful life predictions at system, subsystem swell as component levels. Given models of the current and future system behavior, a general approach of model-based prognostics is discussed as a solution to the prediction problem and further for decision making. Data driven prognostics approaches have been equally used with good results in the past, where respective approaches have their own challenges to tackle. This limits their applicability to complex real-world domains: (a) high complexity or incompleteness of physics-based models and (b) limited representativeness of the training dataset for data-driven models. With the advent of internet of things for data collection and increased use of ML algorithms, hybrid approaches are the next avenue to reduce the challenges and achieve better results. An hybrid framework for fusing information from physics-based performance models along with deep learning algorithms for prognostics of complex safety critical systems is presented. In this framework, we use physics-based performance models to infer unobservable model parameters related to the system's components health solving a calibration problem.

Prognostics↗

Impact of Thermal Scattering Law on Similarity Assessment in Light-Water or Polyethylene-Moderated Systems

A collaborative effort between Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) is underway to provide a technical basis and methodology for the criticality safety community to use the sum of fractions (SoF) method for generating limits for mixtures of “selected actinide nuclides” included in the ANSI/ANS 8.15 standard. The PNNL scope in this project is to define a range of mixtures of 233 U, 235 U, and 239 Pu moderated with either light water or polyethylene and to examine the critical masses for these mixtures. The ORNL scope is primarily to provide validation support for these studies. More complete discussion of the project and its validation aspects will be presented at the upcoming International Conference on Nuclear Criticality Safety (ICNC) this Fall in Sendai, Japan. Clear differences in benchmark similarity to application systems as assessed by the integral parameter ck are noted in the validation studies performed as part of this project as a function of moderator. The c k value is a correlation coefficient that represents that amount of shared uncertainty in k eff due to cross sections between two systems. Individual nuclide-reaction contributions between the two systems can be simply summed to arrive at the total c k value. Specifically, the c k values for light-water–moderated solution experiments are higher for a water-moderated application than for a polyethylene-moderated application. This result is neither totally unexpected nor surprising, but the magnitude of the difference was difficult to anticipate. The TSUNAMI sequence, in the SCALE 6.2.4 code package developed by ORNL, was used to generate eigenvalues and reactivity effects with perturbation-theory based approach through sensitivity coefficients for all nuclides in the system with all reactions and energy groups. The TSUNAMI-Indices and Parameters (IP) sequence then uses the sensitivity data generated through TSUNAMI to generate relational parameters (i.e., c k ) to determine the degree of similarity between systems. One detail of the SCALE material and data implementation must be discussed at this point. Several thermal scattering laws (TSLs) are available for 1 H. SCALE uses a different nuclide ID number for each TSL; essentially, each version of 1 H is treated as a unique nuclide. For example, 1 H bound in water ( 1 H-H2O) is assigned the nuclide ID 1001, whereas 1 H bound in polyethylene (h-poly) is assigned the nuclide ID 9001001. The same cross section data are used for all reactions in 1 H, regardless of TSL, except for scattering below the TSL cutoff energy. TSUNAMI-IP treats different nuclide IDs as different nuclides; thus, no uncertainty is shared between 1 H-H2O and h-poly, despite much of the same data, including covariance data, being used for both nuclides. This presents a question: how much of the difference in assessed similarity between water- and polyethylene-moderated systems is due to the moderators, and how much is caused by the treatment of 1 H-H2O and h poly with cross section and covariance data. The extended edits generated by TSUANMI-IP allow for an investigation of this issue specifically, as well as a demonstration of the general techniques available within TSUNAMI to understand the results of the similarity assessment. This paper presents and analyzes the similarity assessment of both water- and polyethylene-moderated systems for a single benchmark: PST-002-001.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Sensitivity analysis applied to SiC failure probability in TRISO modeled with BISON

Here, a sensitivity analysis on the failure probability of the Silicon Carbide (SiC) layer in tristructural isotropic (TRISO) nuclear fuel during transient conditions predicted by the BISON fuel performance code is performed. The principal goal of the analysis is to understand the most important parameters dictating SiC failure behavior in BISON during Reactivity Initiated Accidents (RIAs). SiC brittle fracture probability is modeled using Weibull statistics. A total of seven inputs related to SiC failure has been selected for the analysis, including the Weibull statistics parameters, elastic moduli for SiC and Pyrolitic Carbon (PyC) and SiC stress-free temperature. A 1D TRISO BISON model has been established for various reactivity insertions performed at the Nuclear Safety Research Reactor (NSRR). The principal advantage associated with the 1D TRISO model developed in this work is its computational efficiency. The Sobol variance decomposition method is used, and the sensitivity indices are presented for eight different values of the energy deposition. The results show that the two most important parameters impacting the predicted SiC failure probability are the Weibull modulus and the characteristic stress, and a co-variance amongst these parameters is obtained for low reactivity insertions. An additional new finding of this work is that the relative importance of Weibull parameters depends on the energy deposition, and thus reactivity, regime. For low energy depositions, two parameters are of influence on SiC failure probability, while for high energy depositions only one parameter impacts failure probability results. Moreover, optimization of the Weibull modulus and characteristic stress is performed by minimizing the RMSE between BISON failure probability predictions and experimental failure fractions for each energy deposition. This work also demonstrates the validity of the NSRR tests BISON simulations and of the respective sensitivity analysis results as conservative, yet indicative for slower transients characterized by lower deposited energies. Such verification is achieved through the partial extension of the analysis to a group Control Rod Withdrawal reproduced from a previous study. Another novel result of this analysis is that no single set of Weibull parameters can reproduce all reactivity insertion experimental failure results, which is related to the intrinsic nature of SiC failure properties, and a new range for the parameters is proposed to produce a failure probability envelope that encompasses the experimental fractions. Additionaly, this work proposes a new approach for future failure analysis with BISON, consisting in the use of Weibull parameters ranges, rather than fixed sets, along with failure envelopes generation.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Advanced Air Bag Technology Assessment

As a result of the concern for the growing number of air-bag-induced injuries and fatalities, the administrators of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) agreed to a cooperative effort that "leverages NHTSA's expertise in motor vehicle safety restraint systems and biomechanics with NASAs position as one of the leaders in advanced technology development... to enable the state of air bag safety technology to advance at a faster pace..." They signed a NASA/NHTSA memorandum of understanding for NASA to "evaluate air bag to assess advanced air bag performance, establish the technological potential for improved technology (smart) air bag systems, and identify key expertise and technology within the agency (i.e., NASA) that can potentially contribute significantly to the improved effectiveness of air bags." NASA is committed to contributing to NHTSAs effort to: (1) understand and define critical parameters affecting air bag performance; (2) systematically assess air bag technology state of the art and its future potential; and (3) identify new concepts for air bag systems. The Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) was selected by NASA to respond to the memorandum of understanding by conducting an advanced air bag technology assessment. JPL analyzed the nature of the need for occupant restraint, how air bags operate alone and with safety belts to provide restraint, and the potential hazards introduced by the technology. This analysis yielded a set of critical parameters for restraint systems. The researchers examined data on the performance of current air bag technology, and searched for and assessed how new technologies could reduce the hazards introduced by air bags while providing the restraint protection that is their primary purpose. The critical parameters which were derived are: (1) the crash severity; (2) the use of seat belts; (3) the physical characteristics of the occupants; (4) the proximity of the occupants to the airbag module; (5) the deployment time, which includes the time to sense the need for deployment, the inflator response parameters, the air bag response, and the reliability of the air bag. The requirements for an advanced air bag technology is discussed. These requirements includes that the system use information related to: (1) the crash severity; (2) the status of belt usage; (3) the occupant category; and (4) the proximity to the air bag to adjust air bag deployment. The parameters for the response of the air bag are: (1) deployment time; (2) inflator parameters; and (3) air bag response and reliability. The state of occupant protection advanced technology is reviewed. This review includes: the current safety restraint systems, and advanced technology characteristics. These characteristics are summarized in a table, which has information regarding the technology item, the potential, and an date of expected utilization. The use of technology and expertise at NASA centers is discussed. NASA expertise relating to sensors, computing, simulation, propellants, propulsion, inflatable systems, systems analysis and engineering is considered most useful. Specific NASA technology developments, which were included in the study are: (1) a capacitive detector; (2) stereoscopic vision system; (3) improved crash sensors; (4) the use of the acoustic signature of the crash to determine crash severity; and (5) the use of radar antenna for pre-crash sensing. Information relating to injury risk assessment is included, as is a summary of the areas of the technology which requires further development.

Phen, R. L.↗

University of Missouri Research Reactor LEU Fuel Element Flow Test Conceptual Design—Hydraulic Reactor Design Parameters

The University of Missouri-Columbia Research Reactor (MURR®) is one of five U.S. high performance research reactors (USHPRR), plus one critical facility, that actively collaborates with the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) Material Management and Minimization(M 3 ) Reactor Conversion Program to convert to the use of low-enriched uranium (LEU, < 20 wt.% U-235) fuel. A new type of LEU fuel with very high density, based on an alloy of uranium and 10 weight percent molybdenum (U-10Mo), is expected to allow the conversion to LEU of USHPRR that have been found unable to be converted with previously qualified uranium silicide-aluminum (U 3 Si 2 -Al) dispersion fuel. MURR has been working with the USHPRR Reactor Conversion (RC) Pillar at Argonne National Laboratory to perform fuel element design and fuel cycle performance analyses, steady-state thermal hydraulics safety analyses, and accident safety analyses in preparation for the conversion of MURR and to support a preliminary Safety Analysis Report (SAR) for conversion to LEU fuel. This work is performed in preparation for the flow test campaign that will be conducted by the USHPRR RC Pillar. The purpose of the hydraulic performance evaluation of the MURR LEU fuel element designed by the RC Pillar is to test a prototypic commercially fabricated LEU fuel element to determine whether any failure modes are observed or predicted in the fuel element, including significant deformations such as plate bending, twisting, or plate detachment from the side plate under selected safety-basis limits for reactor hydraulic conditions. To support the design of the flow test for MURR LEU fuel element hydraulic performance evaluation, design parameters for hydraulic testing of the LEU fuel element are laid out in this report.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Gaussian Process Optimization of Sensitivity-Based Similarity Metrics between New Nuclear Applications and New/Existing Benchmarks [Slides]

This presentation discusses Nuclear Criticality Safety (NCS) and how designing safe, new nuclear criticality experiments requires expert judgement, which could take years of experience. Sensitivity/uncertainty (S/U) analysis can be utilized by less experienced individuals to conservatively estimate uncertainties in important parameters, such as k eff , in newly proposed nuclear experiments. The presentation poses the question of how this analysis can be performed and states that the answer lies in matching new nuclear experiments with existing benchmark experiments using similarity metrics. By increasing the criticality safety of the application in this work, higher mass limits could be used in PF-4 operations. Additionally, the presentation discusses MCNP6.2®, Whisper-1.1, the software that can be used in this analysis. Also discussed is the fact that International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP) benchmarks rarely match new nuclear applications and that there are significant differences in given set of materials and/or geometry. If there are no benchmarks that match the application, the presentation discusses the possibility of creating new benchmarks. In conclusion, this work presents a Gaussian process (GP) optimization scheme that was used to generate new benchmarks with the highest sensitivity-based similarity metrics to user-defined nuclear applications. The Gaussian process optimization successfully designed 3 new experimental benchmarks that were highly correlated to the application of interest and had k eff values near critical. Optimization over c k,i-r has shown that investigating specific isotope reactions for different applications is crucial to designing benchmark experiments. Partial contribution from Pu dominates c k similarity metric. Future work includes testing new stand-alone similarity metrics or new combinations of similarity metrics as the design criterion of this optimization – design criterion is application dependent.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

A Novel Data System for Verification of Internal Parameters of Motor Design

Three major obstacles have limited the amount of information that can be obtained from inside an operating solid rocket motor. The first is a safety issue due to the presence of live propellant interacting with classical, electrical instrumentation. The second is a pressure vessel feed through risk arising from bringing a large number of wires through the rocket motor wall safely. The third is an attachment/protection issue associated with connecting gages to live propellant. Thiokol has developed a highly miniaturized, networked, electrically isolated data system that has safely delivered information from classical, electrical instrumentation (even on the burning propellant surface) to the outside world. This system requires only four wires to deliver 80 channels of data at 2300 samples/second/channel. The feed through leak path risk is massively reduced from the current situation where each gage requires at least three pressure vessel wire penetrations. The external electrical isolation of the system is better than that of the propellant itself. This paper describes the new system.

Smith, Doug↗

Diagnostics: Chapter 8 of the special issue: on the path to tokamak burning plasma operation

This chapter presents the activity conducted by the ITPA topical group (TG) on Diagnostics over about the last 15 years. Following a general introduction of the ITER Diagnostics led by their measurement roles, the document is organized in several subchapters detailing the design support, research and development activity conducted by each of the specialist working groups (WGs) of the TG. Please note that the magnetic diagnostics were supported at the TG without a specific WG. Their status is included in the general introduction. In the following some highlights of the subchapter’s contents are provided. Recent advances in ITER first wall (FW) diagnostics for the measurements of plasma-metallic wall interaction in support of the ITER research plan are reported. An InfraRed imaging Video Bolometer for ITER has been developed and tested on several tokamaks to measure the radiated power loss. A laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) technique which utilizes a pulsed laser beam to ablate locally by forming a crater, will measure local tritium inventory in the FW material. Real-time Residual Gas Analyzers will measure the neutral gas composition in a divertor port and an equatorial port during plasma operation. Due to the full metallic FW environment, the plasma-wall interaction in ITER will face several challenges such as the compromised radiated power and divertor heat flux measurements by reflection. Ray tracing and analysis codes have been developed to eliminate and correct the effects of reflection in the measurements. The characteristics of the reflecting surfaces depending on the roughness and angle of the incidence have been measured by dedicated experiments, and the results were applied to the reflection elimination. For the measurement of the metallic impurity radiation induced by eroded metallic atoms, a vacuum ultraviolet spectrometer has been developed and tested. An extensive thermonuclear diagnostic suite will be required to support the operation of ITER and the planned experimental program for future burning plasma experiments. Due to the harsh environmental conditions, the implementation of diagnostic systems in ITER is a major challenge. These conditions include high levels of neutron and gamma fluxes, neutron heating, particle bombardment. Therefore, the selection and design of diagnostic systems must take into account a number of phenomena previously unseen in diagnostic design. For this reason, the measurement of neutrons and confined or lost fast ions, with particular emphasis on alpha particles, is critical to ITER. The diagnostics associated with these measurements will be important for future plasma-burning experiments at ITER. The high neutron emission and very large plasma size in ITER make neutron diagnostics the main diagnostic method used to measure plasma parameters such as fusion power, fusion power density, ion temperature, energy of fast ions and their spatial distributions in the plasma core. Active spectroscopy techniques are methods where a neutral particle beam is injected into the plasma and information on plasma parameters is extracted from the measurement of line emission resulting from the beam-plasma interaction, either by plasma ions or by beam atoms. Spatial localization is achieved by crossing the beamline and multiple observation lines. The ITER plasma will be a high temperature, moderately dense, fully ionized collisional plasma. The plasma facing surfaces are principally metallic being fashioned from beryllium or tungsten but many other elements, arising from either structural or from operational needs, may enter this plasma. The energy range of the emitted photons range from meV (infra-red) to multi keV (x-rays) and originate from all areas of the plasma volume. The primary role of passive emission diagnostics is to identify what is in the plasma from spectral signatures. Extracting quantitative information from these measurements such as impurity content, ion temperature, rotation, degree of detachment and radiated power depends on calibrated instruments, a physics model of the atomic and molecular processes and plasma transport and an analysis workflow that takes into account environmental effects such as reflections. The particular needs for ITER have prompted a multi-machine, many-year effort to address all these aspects and this chapter reviews the work on diagnostic design, experiments and new analysis techniques. An overview of the laser diagnostics to be implemented on ITER is also provided in this paper. This includes descriptions of the Thomson scattering in the core, edge and divertor regions, polarimetry and interferometry diagnostics used for measuring plasma density and also measurements of helium density in the divertor using Laser Induced Flourescence. Techniques which can allow improvements on current measurements are also addressed in particular expanding poloidal polarimetry measurements to measure field fluctuations and proposed use of dispersion interferometery which has a number of advantages over existing methods. This paper identifies particular areas where further research and testing on existing tokamaks is useful even at this advanced stage to inform the design of diagnostics for ITER. Outstanding areas of concern for the implementation of laser diagnostics, in particular with a view to reliable operation are identified. An overview of the latest developments of microwave diagnostic systems and techniques is given. The primary focus is the contributions for ITER—the next step burning plasma experiment—which is supplemented by describing recent progress of techniques applicable for fusion experiments beyond ITER. The contributions are intentionally kept concise, and are being supplemented by a rich list of references for further studies. Radiation induced effects are receiving continuous and well-deserved attention of the ITER diagnostic community and they are in many cases one of the primary design drivers of the ITER diagnostic systems. The paper summarizes recent progress in this area focusing primarily on the ITER diagnostics but in some cases provides also outlook for the possible solutions for even more demanding radiation environment of fusion reactors beyond ITER. Despite advancements in the area of modeling and simulation of various radiation induced effects, experimental testing in a nuclear environment as close as possible to the target one is still seen as unavoidable for proper qualification of particular diagnostic functional elements. Recent advancement within three diagnostic areas: optical diagnostics, magnetics and bolometers is covered. Encouraging results on qualification of silica glass vacuum window assemblies are presented. In the area of magnetic sensors, progress of irradiation tests performed on ITER in-vessel LTCC inductive sensors is presented with outlook for novel technological approaches to inductive sensors utilizing thick printing and photolithography technologies being highlighted. Summary of advancements in the area of steady state magnetic field sensors based on Hall effect is given. New results of neutron irradiation test of the ITER borosilicate glass inserts for vacuum electrical feedthroughs are summarized finding negligible swelling at target level of neutron fluence. Off-line irradiation tests of fiber optic current sensors for plasma current measurement demonstrated that both for gamma doses up to 5 MGy and a total neutron fluence up to 10 15 cm −2 , radiation induced changes are still compatible with required measurement accuracy on ITER. The ITER bolometers are given as an example how considering radiation effects may influence the diagnostic design. Finally, outlook for future main R&D directions is outlined. All optical and laser-based diagnostics in ITER will be using mirrors to guide plasma radiation toward detectors, cameras and sensors. In the hostile plasma, radiation and particle environment the optical characteristics of diagnostic mirrors will degrade directly affecting the entire performance of involved diagnostic systems. An assessment of factors affecting mirror performance is provided. Among the prime adverse factors are deposition of plasma impurities, sputtering of mirror surface and steam ingress in the vicinity of mirrors. Within the International Tokamak Physics Activity with active support by ITER central team and domestic agencies, the structured research and development (R&D) program on mitigation of risks for diagnostic mirrors is underway. Within this program the mirror material development, the passive mitigation of mirror degradation by using diagnostic ducts and shutters along with an active mirror recovery program comprising the in-situ mirror cleaning and calibration is underway. Recent developments in diagnostic mirror R&D are described in this Chapter along with an example of their implementation of R&D solutions in ITER Infrared Thermography diagnostic. An assessment of still open engineering and physics questions, considerations on mirror risks during an early phase of ITER operation are given along with an overview of diagnostic mirror evolution in the late ITER operation stage toward the demonstration fusion power plant. Several crucial areas of diagnostic R&D outlined in ITER Research Plan are addressed. The basic control groups in a fusion reactor can be broken-down in five categories: (1) plasma position, magnetic configuration, and plasma current control, (2) profile control and confinement optimization, (3) MHD control and suppression, (4) edge dissipation control, radiation and plasma exhaust control and (5) break-down optimization. These categories are coupled via the physics (a control action in one domain will affect the other domains) and via shared actuators (e.g. ECRH for impurity accumulation avoidance, current density distribution control and MHD suppression). Consequently, a supervisory control system should determine the priority of the various control tasks, their couplings, and the interfaces with the safety and interlock system. For the systematic development of the various controllers taking the complexity of the plasma and the control system into account, a model-based approach is required. A short historical overview is given of the developments in systems and control theory and control engineering with special emphasis on those developments that are most relevant for Nuclear Fusion research and operation. An overview is given of the state of the field of fusion plasma control for the control categories. It will be shown how synthetic diagnostics are being developed in ITER and how they are used in diagnostic design and design validation and how they can be in model-based controller synthesis using relatively simple models. In modern control methods, multiple diagnostics are used to constrain relatively simple models. The constrained models provide an estimate for the state. This opens the route to state controllers, such as model predictive control. A major challenge in nuclear fusion research is the coherent combination of data from heterogeneous diagnostics and modeling codes for machine control and safety as well as physics studies. Measured data from different diagnostics often provide information about the same subset of physical parameters. Additionally, information provided by some diagnostics might be needed for the analysis of other diagnostics. A joint analysis of complementary and redundant data allows, e.g. to improve the reliability of parameter estimation, to increase the spatial and temporal resolution of profiles, to obtain synergistic effects, to consider diagnostics interdependencies and to find and resolve data inconsistencies. Physics-based modeling and parameter relationships provide additional information improving the treatment of ill-posed inversion problems. A coherent combination of all kind of available information within a probabilistic framework allows for improved data analysis results. The concept of integrated data analysis (IDA) in the framework of Bayesian probability theory is outlined and contrasted with conventional data analysis. Components of the probabilistic approach are summarized and specific ingredients beneficial for data analysis at fusion devices are discussed.

ITER↗

System Study: High-Pressure Safety Injection 1998-2022

This report presents an unreliability evaluation of the high-pressure safety injection system (HPSI) at 62 U.S. commercial operating nuclear reactors. New Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) models with the most recent SPAR parameter update results were used in this report. Demand, run hours, and failure data from calendar years 1998–2022 for selected components were obtained from the Institute of Nuclear Power Operations Industry Reporting and Information System. The unreliability results are trended for the most recent 10-year period while yearly estimates for system unreliability are provided for the entire active period. Highly statistically significant increasing trends were identified in both the HPSI system start-only unreliability and 8-hour mission unreliability.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Accurate Compression of Tabulated Chemistry Models with Partition of Unity Networks

Tabulated chemistry models are widely used to simulate large-scale turbulent fires in applications including energy generation and fire safety. Tabulation via piecewise Cartesian interpolation suffers from the curse-of-dimensionality, leading to a prohibitive exponential growth in parameters and memory usage as more dimensions are considered. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) have attracted attention for constructing surrogates for chemistry models due to their ability to perform high-dimensional approximation. However, due to well-known pathologies regarding the realization of suboptimal local minima during training, in practice they do not converge and provide unreliable accuracy. Partition of unity networks (POUnets) are a recently introduced family of ANNs which preserve notions of convergence while performing high-dimensional approximation, discovering a mesh-free partition of space which may be used to perform optimal polynomial approximation. In this work, we assess their performance with respect to accuracy and model complexity in reconstructing unstructured flamelet data representative of nonadiabatic pool fire models. Our results show that POUnets can provide the desirable accuracy of classical spline-based interpolants with the low memory footprint of traditional ANNs while converging faster to significantly lower errors than ANNs. For example, we observe POUnets obtaining target accuracies in two dimensions with 40 to 50 times less memory and roughly double the compression in three dimensions. We also address the practical matter of efficiently training accurate POUnets by studying convergence over key hyperparameters, the impact of partition/basis formulation, and the sensitivity to initialization.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Plasma performance and operational space without ELMs in DIII-D

A database of DIII-D plasmas without ELMs compares the operating space and plasma performance of stationary no-ELM regimes: RMP-ELM suppression, QH-mode, I-mode, EDA H-mode, L-mode, and negative triangularity L-mode (Neg-D). Here, operational space is documented in terms of engineering and physics parameters, revealing divergent constraints. Some operational space discriminants (like pedestal collisionality) are well known, while others, such as low torque & safety factor, or high power & density, are less commonly emphasized. Normalized performance (H-factor and betan) also discriminate the no-ELM regimes and favor regimes tolerant to power in DIII-D: RMP, QH, and Neg-D.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗