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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 325 records · Page 18
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

ECCI analysis of shear accommodations at grain boundaries in commercially pure alpha titanium

This study uses a novel approach that couples electron channeling contrast imaging (ECCI) with controlled removal of surface material to investigate the slip system/grain boundary interactions by assessing the geometry of slip planes and grain boundaries as a function of depth. The comparison of spacing, relative distributions, and correlations of slip bands across grain boundaries reveals surface biasing on the slip band behavior in the grain boundary region. Furthermore, using analysis of the compatibility factor m’, the Schmid factor of each slip system, and the angles θ between slip planes, a more comprehensive understanding of the details of the mechanisms of strain transfer and heterogeneous deformation is developed. In general, the misalignment of primary slip systems on the grain boundary planes necessitates the activation of secondary accommodating slip systems close to the grain boundary area that are better aligned (higher m’ and lower θ) with respect to the incoming slip system across the grain boundary. Such systems have the same Burgers vector as the primary slip systems within the respective grains, but are typically on low mobility slip planes.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Lepton pair production through two photon process in heavy ion collisions

This paper investigates the electromagnetic production of lepton pairs with low total transverse momentum in relativistic heavy-ion collisions. First, we estimate the initial photons' transverse momentum contributions by employing models where the average transverse momentum squared of the incoming photon can be calculated in the equivalent photon approximation. We further derive an all order QED resummation for the soft photon radiation, which gives an excellent description of the ATLAS data in ultraperipheral collisions at the LHC. For peripheral and central collisions, additional pT-broadening effects from multiple interactions with the medium and the magnetic field contributions from the quark-gluon plasma are also discussed.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

A low-frequency buncher field-variation study on a 750 keV H – beam to increase Drift Tube Linac capture

We report low-frequency (such as 16.77 MHz) RF bunchers are widely used in RF accelerator systems for longitudinal compression of pulses into a single RF bucket, which increases instantaneous beam intensity for time-dependent studies. In this study, the dependency of capture into a 201.25 MHz Drift Tube Linac (DTL) was measured as a function of gap voltage for a 16.77 MHz buncher on chopped H - beam (approximately 25 ns at 750 keV, 10 mA peak current). The multiparticle code PARMILA was used to simulate the phase-space distribution of the 10 mA, 750 keV, H - beam at the entrance to DTL with a wide range of the Low-Frequency Buncher (LFB) field (10 kV to 35 kV). The measurement and simulation indicated that the DTL capture could be dilute (reduced) for a non-optimized buncher field to a pre-configured beamline geometry. The data shows that changing the bunch field while keeping the incoming beam current and energy constant does not significantly alter the beam’s emittance. However, downstream beam capture into the DTL is changed for a non-optimized phase-space bunching distance with the buncher field.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2020

IRIXS: a resonant inelastic X-ray scattering instrument dedicated to X-rays in the intermediate energy range

A new resonant inelastic X-ray scattering (RIXS) instrument has been constructed at beamline P01 of the PETRA III synchrotron. This instrument has been named IRIXS (intermediate X-ray energy RIXS) and is dedicated to X-rays in the tender-energy regime (2.5–3.5 keV). The range covers the L 2,3 absorption edges of many of the 4delements (Mo, Tc, Ru, Rh, Pd and Ag), offering a unique opportunity to study their low-energy magnetic and charge excitations. The IRIXS instrument is currently operating at the Ru L 3 -edge (2840 eV) but can be extended to the other 4d elements using the existing concept. The incoming photons are monochromated with a four-bounce Si(111) monochromator, while the energy analysis of the outgoing photons is performed by a diced spherical crystal analyzer featuring (10$\bar{2}$ lattice planes of quartz (SiO 2 ). A total resolution of 100 meV (full width at half-maximum) has been achieved at the Ru L 3 -edge, a number that is in excellent agreement with ray-tracing simulations.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2026

The General Antiparticle Spectrometer (GAPS) Antarctic Balloon Payload

The General Antiparticle Spectrometer (GAPS) is an Antarctic stratospheric balloon mission designed to provide unmatched sensitivity to low-energy (<0.25 GeV/n) cosmic-ray antiprotons, antideuterons, and antihelium nuclei as signatures of dark matter. The distinctive GAPS particle identification technique relies on measuring the energy loss along the track of an incoming antinucleus as it slows down and is captured into an exotic atom, and then detecting the de-excitation X-rays and the nuclear annihilation products. This measurement is realized using a Tracker composed of more than 1000 custom silicon strip detectors and a plastic scintillator time-of-flight (TOF) system instrumenting more than 40m$^2$. Together, these subsystems provide the velocity and energy resolution, stopping power, particle tracking, and X-ray identification necessary to distinguish rare antinucleus signals from the abundant positive-nucleus backgrounds, all within the constraints of a high-altitude mission. A multi-loop capillary heat pipe system has been developed to maintain the tracker operating temperature with significant mass and power savings over a conventional pump-based system. The first GAPS science payload flew for 25 days during the 2025/26 NASA Antarctic balloon campaign. We detail the design, integration, and commissioning of the payload prior to flight.

Aoyama, Kazutaka [JAXA, Sagamihara]↗
DOE OSTI2024

Confirming X-ray Parametric Down Conversion by Time-Energy Correlation

We present measurements of X-ray Parametric Down Conversion at the Advanced Photon Source synchrotron facility. Using an incoming pump beam at 22 keV, we observe the simultaneous, elastic emission of down-converted photon pairs generated in a diamond crystal. The pairs are detected using high count rate silicon drift detectors with low noise. Production by down-conversion is confirmed by measuring time-energy correlations in the detector signal, where photon pairs within an energy window ranging from 10 to 12 keV are only observed at short time differences. By systematically varying the crystal misalignment and detector positions, we obtain results that are consistent with the constant total of the down-converted signal. Our maximum rate of observed pairs was 130 /hour, corresponding to a conversion efficiency for the down-conversion process of 5.3±0.5×10 -13 .

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2023

X-ray Parametric Down Conversion at the APS Synchrotron

We present measurements of X-ray Parametric Down Conversion at the Advanced Photon Source synchrotron facility. We use an incoming pump beam at 22 keV to observe the simultaneous, elastic emission of down-converted photon pairs generated in a diamond crystal. The pairs are detected using high count rate silicon drift detectors with low noise. Production by down-conversion is confirmed by measuring time-energy correlations in the detector signal, where photon pairs within an energy window ranging from 10 to 12 keV are only observed at short time differences. By systematically varying the crystal misalignment and detector positions, we obtain results that are consistent with the constant total of the down-converted signal.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Reduced order models for thermal radiative transfer problems based on moment equations and data-driven approximations of the Eddington tensor

Here a new group of structure and asymptotic preserving reduced-order models (ROMs) for multidimensional nonlinear thermal radiative transfer (TRT) problems is presented. They are formulated by means of the nonlinear projective approach and data compression techniques. The nonlinear projection is applied to the Boltzmann transport equation (BTE) to derive a hierarchy of low-order moment equations. Approximation of the Eddington tensor that provides exact closure for the system of moment equations is found with projection-based data-driven methodologies. These include the (i) proper orthogonal decomposition (POD), (ii) dynamic mode decomposition (DMD) and (iii) a variant of the DMD. A parameterization is derived for this ROM for the temperature of radiation incoming to the problem domain (the radiation drive temperature). This parameterization is informed from results of a dimensionless study of the TRT problem. Analysis of the ROMs is performed on the classical Fleck-Cummings TRT multigroup test problem in 2D geometry with a radiation-driven Marshak wave. Numerical results are presented to demonstrate the performance of these ROMs for the simulation of evolving radiation and heat waves. Results show these models to be sufficiently accurate for practical computations with rather low-rank representations of the Eddington tensor. As the rank of the approximation is increased, the errors of solutions generated by the ROMs gradually decreases.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Resistive Coatings for High-performance, Low-background MCPs Operating Across Broad Temperature Ranges and at Cryogenic Temperatures

Microchannel plate with improved thermo-electric properties are a high risk, high payoff development undertaken by a consortium of effort that links the Argonne National Lab, the Space-Science Lab at UC Berkeley and the small businesses (Incom Inc.) that will commercialize the advanced technology in open MCPs and LAPPDs. This development will satisfy the needs for new instrumentation for homeland security (non-proliferation) sensors to screen vehicles and cargo for Special Nuclear Materials (SNMs) and scientific detectors for astrophysics, electron microscopy, time-of-flight mass spectrometry, molecular and atomic collision studies, and fluorescence imaging applications in biotechnology and medical imaging products including positron emission tomography (PET scanning).

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Gas Stopper Developments for Improved Purity and Intensity of Low-Energy, Rare Isotope Ion Beams (Final Technical Report)

This final technical report summarizes the work of the Michigan State University (MSU) team supported by grant # DE-SC0021423 awarded by the Office of Nuclear Physics, Department of Energy. Objectives: The successful fulfillment of the FRIB science mission hinges on ensuring the availability of fast, stopped, and reaccelerated beams consisting of rare isotopes. This project's research and development focus was dedicated to supporting the advancement and creation of a cutting-edge linear gas stopper. The primary aim is to efficiently convert the high-intensity fast beams of rare isotopes provided by FRIB into high-quality, low-energy beams. These beams are essential for conducting stopped beam experiments or for subsequent reacceleration. The overarching goal is to advance technology, aiming to increase the beam rate capability of the linear gas stopper for medium-to-heavy-mass rare isotopes by more than tenfold compared to the currently most effective gas stopper in operation, and to improve the purity of the delivered beams. Project Description: The existing technology employed in gas stopping devices designed for low-energy, rare-isotope beams presents limitations in both the purity of extracted beams and the intensities of injected beams. These limitations are incompatible with the requirements of the recently commissioned rare isotope beam facility, FRIB. Our research and development efforts, aligned with the previously outlined objectives, focused on addressing the most critical aspects for enhancing beam-rate capability and purity. Specifically, advanced particle-in-cell simulations were developed and integrated into a simulation pipeline to explore the efficacy of multi-layer RF carpets on increasing ion transport efficiency with high incoming beam rates that generate space charge fields which can limit it. We also explored the possibility of using a collision-induced-dissociation (CID) gas cell to break up molecular contaminant ions that are generated during the stopping process. A prototype CID gas cell was constructed and tested with beams from an offline ion source, validating the concept with the successful demonstration of breaking of molecular ions. The outcome of this research enabled the formulation a conceptual design for a next-generation linear gas stopping device specifically tailored for FRIB. This device is envisioned to deliver rare-isotope-ion beams at a rate of 10 8 particles per second or higher, accompanied by advancements in purity. Methods employed: This project leverages advancements in technologies initially designed for the Advanced Cryogenic Gas Stopper (ACGS), the current state-of-the-art linear gas stopper, through the use of new simulations and beam purification via collision-induced-dissociation. The methods include: 1. Development of a prototype low-energy, low-pressure CID gas stopper. This prototype features a thin, approximately 20 nm, Si 3 N 4 entrance window designed for dissociating stable and rare-isotope molecular ions. The goal is to enhance beam purification and overall efficiency. 2. Creation of Particle-in-cell (PIC) simulations to assess the advantages of multi-layer RF carpets and multi-point extraction for ion transport efficiency. These simulations rely on the 3DCylPIC package, specifically designed for studying devices of this nature. The goal is to quantify and mitigate ion transport losses due to space charge generated in the stopping process of large numbers of ions. 3. Perform ion transport simulations across an RF carpet using an 8-phase travelling wave and evaluate its performance. Compared to the 4-phase RF carpets used in ACGS, the 8-phase carpets will double the wavelength of the generated traveling wave allowing for larger maximum RF amplitudes that could result in improved ion transport efficiency for high-intensity incoming beams when large space charge fields are present. Impact: Tackling the primary challenges associated with transforming high-energy projectile fragment beams into low-energy beams—specifically, addressing efficiency and purity—holds significant promise for advancing FRIB science. This advancement will particularly impact precision mass measurements, laser spectroscopy of short-lived nuclei, and studies in astrophysics and nuclear reactions using reaccelerated beams. These domains play a crucial role in addressing key questions outlined in the 2023 NSAC long-range plan, spanning nuclear structure, nuclear astrophysics, and fundamental symmetries. Additionally, they contribute to addressing 10 out of the 17 benchmarks identified by the NRC RISAC. The development of a next-generation gas stopping device capable of delivering low-energy, rare-isotope beams at a rate of 10 8 particles per second, or more, with high purity holds the potential to unlock experiments that would otherwise be unfeasible. Furthermore, it is expected to reduce the time required for experiments at FRIB, thereby maximizing scientific output. The research and development activities performed as part of this project bolstered essential competencies at FRIB in beam physics and ion source technologies, provided valuable training opportunities for junior scientists.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Cometary Activity Begins at Kuiper Belt Distances: Evidence from C/2017 K2

We study the development of activity in the incoming long-period comet C/2017 K2 over the heliocentric distance range 9 ≲ r {sub H} ≲ 16 au. The comet continues to be characterized by a coma of submillimeter-sized and larger particles ejected at low velocity. In a fixed co-moving volume around the nucleus we find that the scattering cross section of the coma, C, is related to the heliocentric distance by a power law, C∝r{sub H}{sup -s}, with heliocentric index s = 1.14 ± 0.05. This dependence is significantly weaker than the r {sub H} {sup -2} variation of the insolation as a result of two effects. These are, first, the heliocentric dependence of the dust velocity and, second, a lag effect due to very slow-moving particles ejected long before the observations were taken. A Monte Carlo model of the photometry shows that dust production beginning at r {sub H} ~ 35 au is needed to match the measured heliocentric index, with only a slight dependence on the particle size distribution. Mass-loss rates in dust at 10 au are of order 10{sup 3} kg s{sup -1}, while loss rates in gas may be much smaller, depending on the unknown dust to gas ratio. Consequently, the ratio of the nongravitational acceleration to the local solar gravity, α', may, depending on the nucleus size, attain values of ~10{sup -7} ≲ α' ≲ 10{sup -5}, comparable to values found in short-period comets at much smaller distances. Nongravitational acceleration in C/2017 K2 and similarly distant comets, while presently unmeasured, may limit the accuracy with which we can infer the properties of the Oort cloud from the orbits of long-period comets.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2024

Woody Feedstock 2022 State of Technology Report

The U.S. Department of Energy promotes production of advanced liquid transportation fuels from lignocellulosic biomass by funding fundamental and applied research that advances the state of technology (SOT). As part of its involvement in this mission, Idaho National Laboratory completes an annual SOT report for n th -plant and 1 st -plant woody biomass feedstock logistics. The purpose of the SOT is to provide the status of feedstock supply system technology development for woody biomass to biofuels relative to technical targets and cost goals from specific design cases, based on data and experimental results. Conventional feedstock supply systems need to be modified to meet the demands of conversion pathways, specifically to have the ability to adjust the quality of the raw biomass materials. Advanced systems incorporate innovative methods of material handling, preprocessing and supply chain configuration. In advanced designs, variability of the raw biomass can be reduced to produce feedstocks of a uniform format, moving toward biomass commoditization. Against this backdrop, the 2022 Woody SOT for low-ash woody feedstocks utilizes feedstock fractionation by incorporating technologies that can separate the biomass into its anatomical fractions (wood, bark, needle, and extrinsic ash) to reduce impurities and attempt to maximize the retention of usable fractions that satisfy downstream quality considerations. By using a series of air classification steps, this strategy can reduce the extrinsic ash in forest residues, separate out a majority of the incoming needles (which can be supplied to alternate markets), and maximize the retention of whitewood in the usable fraction. The fractionated forest residues are then mixed with clean-pine chips in a 50-50 blend to prepare the feedstock for the desired conversion pathway. The n th -plant analysis estimated the delivered cost for the feedstock at $\$$69.23/dry ton (2016$\$$) which represents a $\$$6.64/dry ton decrease compared to the cost estimate of the 2021 Woody SOT supply system for low-ash woody feedstocks. The quality requirements in the 2022 Woody SOT were identical to those of the 2021 Woody SOT at = 1.00 wt % ash and = 50.51 wt% carbon. The cost savings derive primarily from reductions in dry matter losses during air classification. The GHG emissions for the n th -plant analysis were estimated at 178.39 kg CO2e/dry ton compared to 178.71 kg CO 2 e/dry ton in the 2021 Woody SOT, a decrease of 0.32 kg CO2e/dry ton. The small change stems from an increase in emissions attributed to preprocessing and slightly larger savings in emissions from transportation. In the 1 st -plant analysis of the 2022 Woody SOT system, the average throughput was estimated to be approximately 2,128 dry tons/day or 96.51% of the name plate capacity. During the simulation the daily throughput ranged from 1,090 dry tons/day to 2,200 dry tons/day, or 49.43% to 99.75% of the daily nameplate capacity. After the year of operation 722,403 tons of processed feedstock were produced in total without regard to quality considerations (99.64% of the annual nameplate capacity). The variability in throughput was primarily caused by equipment failures in the system. Regular failures, downtime caused by routine maintenance per manufacturer guidelines, contributed to a majority 62.50% of failures and 62.60% of downtime. Failures due to wear were the other cause of disruption within the system, impacting the rotary shear and orbital screen and accounting for 37.50% of the failures and 37.40% of the total downtime. Ultimately the system was on stream for 87.84% during the simulation period, which is only 2.16 percentage points below the nth-plant assumption for on-stream time. The production cost of the system averaged $\$$71.66/dry ton. The costs ranged from a minimum of $\$$71.23/dry ton to a maximum of $\$$2,115.30/dry ton. When dry matter losses (disposed low-quality fractions as well as other losses such as in grinders) were considered the costs increased to an average of $\$$75.11/dry ton with a minimum of $\$$74.69/dry ton and a maximum of $\$$2,136.86/dry ton...

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Space charge dominated momentum spread and compensation strategies in the post-linac section of Proton Improvement Plan-II at Fermilab

The upcoming Proton Improvement Plan-II (PIP-II), designated for enhancements to the Fermilab accelerator complex, features a new 800 MeV superconducting linac and a Beam Transfer Line (BTL) to transport the beam to the existing Booster synchrotron. To mitigate the space charge tune shift associated with a high intensity accumulated beam, the low emittance linac beam is used to paint the ring phase space both transversely and longitudinally. To prevent losses caused by particles injected outside the rf separatrix while painting longitudinal phase space, the momentum spread of the incoming beam should not exceed 2.1 x 10^-4. Detailed simulations showed that due to space charge, the rms momentum spread increases to 4 x 10^-4 while it is transported in the BTL --about twice the allowable limit. In this paper, we outline a mitigation strategy involving a debuncher cavity. We discuss location, operating frequency, and gap voltage under both nominal and perturbed beam conditions, specifically accounting for momentum jitter. The impact of cavity misalignments is also assessed. The paper concludes by recommending an optimized configuration.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantitative Non-Destructive Evaluation of Fatigue Damage Based on Multi-Sensor Fusion

Based on sensor fusion and machine learning, this project developed a novel non-destructive evaluation (NDE) methodology, which consists of a remaining useful life (RUL) prediction framework and regression models for predicting residual stress and full width at half maximum (FWHM). A series of fatigue testing experiments were conducted using 5052-H32 aluminum alloy specimens. All specimens were measured using linear ultrasonic (LU) and nonlinear ultrasonic (NLU) testing methods non-destructively. Machine learning models were developed to use LU and NLU measurements to predict loading condition, fatigue level, residual stress, and FWHM. It was demonstrated that the developed methodology could distinguish new and fatigue specimens with an accuracy of 97.53%. Also, the prediction errors for residual stress and FWHM were as low as 4.73% and 1.62%, respectively. An interactive database was created to publicly share the data generated from the project. It is envisioned that the developed NDE technology will equip manufacturers with a responsive screening system for incoming used metallic components, and potentially lead to a significant increase in using used metallic components for remanufacturing.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Electrodynamics of Thin Sheets of Twisted Material

We construct a minimal theory describing the optical activity of a thin sheet of a twisted material, the simplest example of which is twisted bilayer graphene. We introduce the notion of "twisted electrical conductivity", which parametrizes the parity-odd response of a thin film to a perpendicularly falling electromagnetic waves with wavelength larger than the thickness of the sheet. Here, we show that the low-frequency Faraday rotation angle has different behaviors in different phases. For an insulator, the Faraday angle behaves as ω 2 at low frequencies, with the coefficient being determined by the linear relationship between a component of the electric quadrupole moment and the external electric field. For superconductors, the Faraday rotation angle is constant when the frequency of the incoming EM waves is below the superconducting gap and is determined by the coefficient of the Lifshitz invariant in the Ginzburg-Landau functional describing the superconducting state. In the metallic state, we show that the twisted conductivity is proportional to the "magnetic helicity" (scalar product of the velocity and the magnetic moment) of the quasiparticle, averaged around the Fermi surface. The theory is general and is applicable to strongly correlated phases.

Son, Dam Thanh↗
DOE OSTI2024

Optically induced quantum transitions in direct probed mesoscopic NbSe 2 for prototypical bolometers

Superconducting transition-edge sensors (TES) have emerged as fascinating devices to detect broadband electromagnetic radiation with low thermal noise. The advent of metallic transition metal dichalcogenides, such as NbSe 2 , has also created an impetus to understand their low-temperature properties, including superconductivity. Interestingly, NbSe 2 -based sensor within the TES framework remains unexplored. In this work, direct-probed superconducting NbSe 2 absorbers led to a proof-of-concept demonstration for the transduction of incoming light to heat, where a thermodynamic superconducting phase transition in NbSe 2 was evident to switch it to the normal-state, when biased below its superconducting transition temperature. A wavelength-dependent response of its optical absorption properties was observed, based on the incident optical excitation source used. Furthermore, extensive optical characterization studies were conducted using Raman spectroscopy, where the in-plane and out-of-plane thermal conductivity was empirically determined. Our results open new possibilities for the use of NbSe 2 in superconducting radiation detectors, including in a TES framework

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2022

An N$\cdots$H$\cdots$N low-barrier hydrogen bond preorganizes the catalytic site of aspartate aminotransferase to facilitate the second half-reaction

Pyridoxal 5'-phosphate (PLP)-dependent enzymes have been extensively studied for their ability to fine-tune PLP cofactor electronics to promote a wide array of chemistries. Neutron crystallography offers a straightforward approach to studying the electronic states of PLP and the electrostatics of enzyme active sites, responsible for the reaction specificities, by enabling direct visualization of hydrogen atom positions. Here we report a room-temperature joint X-ray/neutron structure of aspartate aminotransferase (AAT) with pyridoxamine 5'-phosphate (PMP), the cofactor product of the first half reaction catalyzed by the enzyme. Between PMP N SB and catalytic Lys258 Nζ amino groups an equally shared deuterium is observed in an apparent low-barrier hydrogen bond (LBHB). Density functional theory calculations were performed to provide further evidence of this LBHB interaction. The structural arrangement and the juxtaposition of PMP and Lys258, facilitated by the LBHB, suggests active site preorganization for the incoming ketoacid substrate that initiates the second half-reaction.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Regional Economic Impacts of the Los Angeles 100% Renewable Energy Transition

To help mitigate greenhouse gas (GHGs) generation from burning fossil fuels, many state and local governments are requiring utilities to dramatically increase the share of electricity generated from renewable sources. The City of Los Angeles has set a target of 100% renewable energy by 2045 and has formulated a plan that considers nine potential alternative scenarios that differ by technology, location, and timing. Each scenario has a unique set of local investments, operating and maintenance (O&M) costs, and concomitant rate structures. In this study we develop and apply a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model built specifically for LA to estimate and compare the economic impacts for each of the scenarios over time relative to a reference case. We find differences in economic impacts across scenarios, depending on the level and timing of investment and O&M expenditures, as well as differences in the relative rate changes across scenarios. Results show that employment and economic output are positively correlated with greater capital and O&M spending, while higher electricity rates can dampen economic activity. Several scenarios generate positive economic impacts relative to the reference case, showing that the transition need not have harmful economic impacts, and all scenarios generate a number of other positive co-benefits, such as reduced damage to health from the reduction of ordinary air pollutants. The net employment impacts from 2026 to 2045 across the scenarios range from a low of 3,600 job-year losses annually to 4,700 job-year gains, both around only 0.1% of the baseline average annual employment in the city over that period. The analysis also indicates that lower-income households are relatively more affected than others by the scenarios. Overall, even in the most negatively impactful case, the economic output and employment effects are quite small when taken in the context of the overall size of the regional economy and the large reduction in GHGs.

economic impact modeling↗