Nonstationary seasonal model for daily mean temperature distribution bridging bulk and tails
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Abstract The interaction of intense, ultrashort laser pulses with ordered nanostructure arrays offers a path to the efficient creation of ultra-high-energy density (UHED) matter and the generation of high-energy particles with compact lasers. Irradiation of deuterated nanowires arrays results in a near-solid density environment with extremely high temperatures and large electromagnetic fields in which deuterons are accelerated to multi-megaelectronvolt energies, resulting in deuterium–deuterium (D–D) fusion. Here we focus on the method of fabrication and the characteristics of ordered arrays of deuterated polyethylene nanowires. The irradiation of these array targets with femtosecond pulses of relativistic intensity and joule-level energy creates a micro-scale fusion environment that produced $2\times {10}^6$ neutrons per joule, an increase of about 500 times with respect to flat solid CD 2 targets irradiated with the same laser pulses. Irradiation with 8 J laser pulses was measured to generate up to 1.2 × 10 7 D–D fusion neutrons per shot.
Tropical anvil clouds peak near 200 hPa and significantly impact Earth's climate, yet its physical realism in coarse‐resolution General Circulation Models (GCMs) remains debated. We examine anvil cloud formation by performing simulations with a GCM with a hierarchy of cloud fraction schemes ranging from a complex prognostic Tiedtke scheme to a simple binary scheme. All schemes consistently reproduce the anvil peak. The robust anvil peak arises because extremely cold temperatures at the upper troposphere facilitate frequent saturation events, producing clouds that disproportionately influence mean cloud fraction. Sensitivity experiments with enhanced evaporation of cloud condensate unexpectedly show increased anvil coverage, highlighting how slight evaporative moistening reinforces local saturation in cold upper‐tropospheric conditions. These results demonstrate that the tropical anvil cloud peak emerges from fundamental thermodynamic constraints, rather than specific cloud fraction parameterization choices.
Irrigation rapidly expanded during the 20 th century, affecting climate via water, energy, and biogeochemical changes. Previous assessments of these effects predominantly relied on a single Earth System Model, and therefore suffered from structural model uncertainties. Here we quantify the impacts of historical irrigation expansion on climate by analysing simulation results from six Earth system models participating in the Irrigation Model Intercomparison Project (IRRMIP). Results show that irrigation expansion causes a rapid increase in irrigation water withdrawal, which leads to less frequent 2-meter air temperature heat extremes across heavily irrigated areas (≥4 times less likely). However, due to the irrigation-induced increase in air humidity, the cooling effect of irrigation expansion on moist-heat stress is less pronounced or even reversed, depending on the heat stress metric. In summary, this study indicates that irrigation deployment is not an efficient adaptation measure to escalating human heat stress under climate change, calling for carefully dealing with the increased exposure of local people to moist-heat stress.
The phase behaviour of warm dense hydrogen–helium (H–He) mixtures affects our understanding of the evolution of Jupiter and Saturn and their interior structures. For example, precipitation of He from a H–He atmosphere at about 1–10 megabar and a few thousand kelvin has been invoked to explain both the excess luminosity of Saturn, and the depletion of He and neon (Ne) in Jupiter’s atmosphere as observed by the Galileo probe. But despite its importance, H–He phase behaviour under relevant planetary conditions remains poorly constrained because it is challenging to determine computationally and because the extremes of temperature and pressure are difficult to reach experimentally. Here we report that appropriate temperatures and pressures can be reached through laser-driven shock compression of H 2 –He samples that have been pre-compressed in diamond-anvil cells. This allows us to probe the properties of H–He mixtures under Jovian interior conditions, revealing a region of immiscibility along the Hugoniot. A clear discontinuous change in sample reflectivity indicates that this region ends above 150 gigapascals at 10,200 kelvin and that a more subtle reflectivity change occurs above 93 gigapascals at 4,700 kelvin. Considering pressure–temperature profiles for Jupiter, these experimental immiscibility constraints for a near-protosolar mixture suggest that H–He phase separation affects a large fraction—we estimate about 15 per cent of the radius—of Jupiter’s interior. Furthermore, this finding provides microphysical support for Jupiter models that invoke a layered interior to explain Juno and Galileo spacecraft observations.
van der Waals solids are well known to host remarkable phase diagrams with competing phases, unusual energy transfer processes, and elusive states of matter. Among this class of materials, chalcogenides have emerged as the most flexible and relevant platforms for unraveling charge–structure–function relationships. In order to explore the properties of complex chalcogenides under external stimuli, we measured the far infrared spectroscopic response of CrSiTe 3 under extreme pressure–temperature conditions. Analysis of the 368 cm –1 Si–Te stretching mode and the manner in which it is screened by the closure of the indirect gap reveals that the insulator–metal transition takes place immediately after the structural phase transition—once the mixed phase aspect of the lattice distortion is resolved. At the same time, the two-phase region associated with the structural transition widens with decreasing temperature, and the slope of the insulator–metal transition under pressure is consistent with increasing entropy. These trends completely revise the character of the temperature–pressure phase diagram as well as the relationship between the structural and insulator–metal transitions, leading to a critical nexus of activity that may hide a quantum critical point and allow superconductivity to emerge.
Geometric frustration commonly occurs in materials where magnetic rare-earth ions are arranged on a two-dimensional triangular lattice. These compounds have been gaining significant attention lately, as they hold the promise of revealing unique quantum states of matter. However, little attention has been devoted to cases where spin-$\frac{1}{2}$ rare-earth ions are substituted with ions exhibiting higher spin multiplicities. Here, we successfully synthesize high-quality single crystal samples of Ba 3 Er(BO 3 ) 3 , which is part of the family of triangular lattice compounds. In our experiments, conducted at extremely low temperatures (around 100 millikelvin), we observe two sublattice exchange interactions in Ba 3 Er(BO 3 ) 3 , resulting in the hexagonal lattice spins exhibiting a mixture of ferromagnetic and antiferromagnetic tendencies. Our theoretical analysis suggest that this behavior may be attributed to the distinct positions of magnetic ions within the crystal lattice. However, the presence of quantum effects adds an extra layer of complexity to our findings, calling for further exploration.
The neutron sources at Oak Ridge National Laboratory use a wide suite of sample environment equipment to deliver extreme conditions for a number of experiments. Much of this instrumentation focuses on extremes of temperature, such as cryostats, closed-cycle refrigerators in both low and high temperature configurations, and radiant heating furnaces. When the temperature is controlled across a large range, thermal deflection effects can notably move the sample and affect its alignment in the beam. Here, we combine these sample environments with neutron imaging and machine vision to determine the motion of a representative sample with respect to the neutron beam. We find vertical sample displacement on the order of 1–2 mm and horizontal displacement that varies from near-negligible to 1.2 mm. While these deflections are not relevant for some of the beamlines at the first target station at the spallation neutron source and the high flux isotope reactor, they will become critical for upcoming instrumentation at the second target station, as well as any instruments targeting sub-mm samples, as neutron sources and optics evolve to smaller and more focused beams. We discuss mitigation protocols and potential modifications to the environment to minimize the effect of misalignment due to thermal deflection.
The creation and exploration of new materials under extreme pressure–temperature conditions has become increasingly reliant on laser-heated diamond anvil cell (LHDAC) techniques, which provide direct access to previously unexplored regions of multinary phase diagrams. Whereas numerous high-pressure phases have been identified in situ, systematic recovery and post-synthesis physical property characterization of these materials remain significant challenges. In this work, we describe the setup and implementation of an LHDAC-based synthesis and recovery workflow and demonstrate its application to metastable MnSb 2 and YbZn 2 phases. Synchrotron x-ray diffraction and spatial mapping confirm dominant formation of the targeted phases, whereas laboratory-based refinement quantifies phase fractions despite intrinsic microstrain and minor secondary phases. High-pressure transport measurements on recovered samples reveal pressure-tunable electronic instabilities in both systems. In MnSb 2 , pressure suppresses two high-temperature magnetic ordering anomalies, observed in transport, by ∼5 GPa and, for higher pressures, induces a new low-temperature feature that increases with further pressure increase. In hexagonal high-pressure YbZn 2 , an electronic reconstruction emerges at ∼11 GPa, characterized by semiconducting-like behavior from ∼30 to 300 K and a broad low-temperature coherence crossover near 30 K. Our results establish LHDAC synthesis not only as a structural discovery tool but also as an experimental platform for investigating correlated quantum states stabilized far from equilibrium thermodynamic conditions.
Abstract With climate change, heat waves have become more frequent and intense. Rotating power outages happen when the power supply is unable to meet the cooling demand increase resulting from extreme high temperatures. Power outages during heat waves expose residents to high risks of overheating. In this study, we propose a novel data-driven inverse modelling approach to inform decision makers and grid operators on planning rotating power outages. We first infer the building thermal characteristics using the connected smart thermostat data, and used the estimated thermal dynamics to simulate the thermal resilience during a heat wave event. Our proposed method was tested for the California power outage in August 2020 by using the open source Ecobee Donate Your Data dataset. We found in California the power outage should not last more than two hours during heat waves to avoid overheating risks. Informing the residents in advance so they can prepare for it through pre-cooling is a simple but effective strategy to expand the acceptable power outage duration. In addition to assisting power outage planning, the proposed method can be used for other applications, such as to evaluate a building energy efficiency policy, to examine fuel poverty, and to estimate the load shifting potential of building stocks.
Current state-of-the-art superconducting microwave qubits are cooled to extremely low temperatures to avoid sources of decoherence. Higher qubit operating temperatures would significantly increase the cooling power available, which is desirable for scaling up the number of qubits in quantum computing architectures and integrating qubits in experiments requiring increased heat dissipation. To operate superconducting qubits at higher temperatures, it is necessary to address both quasiparticle decoherence (which becomes significant for aluminum junctions above 160 mK) and dephasing from thermal microwave photons (which are problematic above 50 mK). Using low-loss niobium-trilayer junctions, which have reduced sensitivity to quasiparticles due to the higher superconducting transition temperature of niobium, we fabricate transmons with higher frequencies than previously studied, up to 24 GHz. We measure decoherence and dephasing times of about 1 μs, corresponding to average qubit quality factors of approximately 10 5 , and find that decoherence is unaffected by quasiparticles up to 1 K. Without relaxation from quasiparticles, we are able to explore dephasing from purely thermal sources, finding that our qubits can operate up to approximately 250 mK while maintaining similar performance. The thermal resilience of these qubits creates new options for scaling up quantum processors, enables hybrid quantum experiments with high heat-dissipation budgets, and introduces a material platform for even-higher-frequency qubits.
Time-lapse cameras have been widely used as a tool to monitor the timing of seasonal vegetation growth. These simple, relatively inexpensive systems can provide high-frequency observations of leaf development and demography which are critical data sets needed to characterize plant phenology from species to landscapes. This is important for understanding how plants are responding to global changes, as well as for validating satellite-derived phenology products. However, in remote regions including the high-latitude Arctic, deploying time-lapse cameras could be challenging. The remoteness and lack of widespread power and telecommunications infrastructure limit options for the installation, maintenance and retrieval of data and equipment, and make it difficult for cameras to survive in extreme weather (e.g. long cold winters). To improve our understanding of Arctic phenology, new technologies are required to address these challenges. Here, we present a novel, low-power, compact, lightweight time-lapse camera system, called power-interval camera automation module (PiCAM). The PiCAM was designed with explicit consideration to simplify deployment (i.e. without a need for external power supplies) of camera systems and to address the challenges of camera survival in harsh Arctic environments. In this paper, we describe the design, setup and technical details of the PiCAM and provide a roadmap for how to build and operate these systems. As proof of concept, we deployed 26 PiCAMs at three low-Arctic tundra sites on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska in early August 2021 for characterizing Arctic plant phenology. Of the 26 PiCAMs, 70% remained active at the point of our revisit in late July 2022 despite the extreme winter temperatures they experienced (< –30°C, heavy snow cover). We extracted key plant phenology metrics from the PiCAMs and captured strong differences across key Arctic plant species. We showed that the PiCAM has the potential to be widely used for monitoring plant phenology across the broader Arctic region, addressing the need for ground-based understanding of Arctic phenological diversity to develop knowledge of plant response to climate change and to validate remote sensing products.
The Allam-Fetvedt Cycle (AFC) offers the potential for electricity generation with minimal or even negative carbon emissions by using oxycombustion in supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO2). Because of the extreme high temperatures and pressures encountered in these systems, simulation of oxycombustion requires use of a complex equation of state such as the modified Soave-Redlich-Kwong (SRK) equation, coupled with equally complex correlations for transport properties. The current work simulates a model combustor using both an ideal gas equation of state and the SRK equation of state. The model combustor features a jet of CH4 mixing with and reacting with O2 in the sCO2 ambient. Two jet configurations are considered: one of pure CH4, and one of CH4 mixed with sCO2. Comparison of results shows that key output properties such as combustor temperature and flow distribution are impacted by the choice of equations of state. Inspection of simulation results shows that mixing and reaction rates, as well as the uniformity of the flow, are impacted by the choice of equation of state. These results show that even though use of a complex equation of state greatly increases the computational costs of these simulations, it is critical to accurately capturing the physics of these systems.
Concentrating solar thermal (CST) systems can be leveraged to provide not only heat for power generation, but also for energy storage and thermochemical fuel production. Such solar thermochemical processes have been studied conceptually, from solar thermochemical hydrogen production (STCH) and thermochemical energy storage (TCES), to gasification, reforming, and fuel upgrading by various means. The solar receiver and reactor are critical components in the conversion of solar energy into chemical energy in the form of 'solar fuels'. For effective conversion of solar energy within a coupled solar receiver-reactor, extremely high temperatures are required, thereby demanding a high solar concentration ratio (CR) for efficient operation. This creates a design challenge for the receiver-reactor, as many thermochemical processes involve gas or gas-solid systems that are limited by low heat transfer coefficients. A unique receiver design is proposed that has the potential to incorporate various high-temperature thermochemical processes such as TCES-assisted power generation, methane reforming, or STCH processes. Modeling this receiver and its potential applications requires a full three-dimensional model that accurately captures the interconnected effects of receiver geometry, spatial solar irradiance, complex radiation, reaction kinetics, fluid dynamics, and heat transfer. In this paper we analyze a CST system integrated with this unique planar-cavity receiver-reactor design using the developed model. The model presented in this paper showed where improved thermal management was needed to achieve suitable receiver performance when a dry-methane reforming process is implemented.
Quantum devices have the potential to revolutionize applications in computing, communications, and sensing; however, current state-of-art resources must operate at extremely low temperatures, making the routing of microwave control and readout signals challenging to scale. Interest in microwave photonic solutions to this problem has grown in recent years, in which control signals are delivered to the cold stage via optical fiber, where they are converted to electrical signals through photodetection. Overall link performance depends strongly on the characteristics of the photodiode, yet detailed measurements of many detector properties remain lacking at cold temperatures. In this work, we examine and compare the performance of a modified uni-traveling carrier photodiode (MUTC-PD) at both room (300 K) and liquid nitrogen (80 K) temperatures, focusing in particular on responsivity, bandwidth, and linearity. In line with previous work, we find a sharp reduction in responsivity at 1550 nm as temperature decreases, while RF bandwidth remains steady. Interestingly, our linearity tests reveal that the RF output saturates more quickly at 80 K, suggesting reduced linearity with lower temperature, the cause of which is still under investigation. Our results should help contribute to the understanding and future design of highly linear cryogenic quantum links.
Australia’s changing climate is already impacting the agriculture sector and will continue to do so in the future. To help respond to these impacts, the Climate Services for Agriculture (CSA) platform presents readily accessible climate data, including future climate projections, relevant to specific agricultural commodities. This wine industry example aims to demonstrate the functionality and utility of the CSA for national use across a broad range of commodities. Methods and Results. The platform includes commodity-relevant climate indices designed in consultation with experts to ensure that they are as salient to producers as possible; the wine-grape specific indices include measures of growing season temperature, rainfall, extreme heat, and frost. Here, we describe the research behind the wine-grape specific indices and present sample outputs from the CSA platform for a site within a selected winegrowing region. We note the CSA platform has been developed through an extensive and continuing user engagement initiative, ensuring it meets the needs of the agriculture community as they grapple with how to make decisions based on longer term climate projections. Conclusions. Provision of past, seasonal outlook, and future climate information for Australia and for a range of important agricultural commodities can help improve on-farm planning and decision-making to respond to climate risks. The wine industry provides a leading example of how to use these data for decision-making, noting ongoing adjustments will be needed. Significance of the Study. The CSA platform brings together historical climate data, seasonal climate outlooks, and future climate projections to assist agricultural producers to better manage climate variability and climate change. It aims to nationalise this information for all major agricultural commodities in Australia. We use wine production as a demonstration case here.
Abstract This study investigates the combined impacts of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and extratropical anticyclonic Rossby wave breaking (AWB) on subseasonal Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) activity and their physical connections. Our results show that during MJO phases 2–3 (enhanced Indian Ocean convection) and 6–7 (enhanced tropical Pacific convection), there are significant changes in basinwide TC activity. The MJO and AWB collaborate to suppress basinwide TC activity during phases 6–7 but not during phases 2–3. During phases 6–7, when AWB occurs, various TC metrics including hurricanes, accumulated cyclone energy, and rapid intensification probability decrease by ∼50%–80%. Simultaneously, large-scale environmental variables, like vertical wind shear, precipitable water, and sea surface temperatures become extremely unfavorable for TC formation and intensification, compared to periods characterized by suppressed AWB activity during the same MJO phases. Further investigation reveals that AWB events during phases 6–7 occur in concert with the development of a stronger anticyclone in the lower troposphere, which transports more dry, stable extratropical air equatorward, and drives enhanced tropical SST cooling. As a result, individual AWB events in phases 6–7 can disturb the development of surrounding TCs to a greater extent than their phases 2–3 counterparts. The influence of the MJO on AWB over the western subtropical Atlantic can be attributed to the modulation of the convectively forced Rossby wave source over the tropical eastern Pacific. A significant number of Rossby waves initiating from this region during phases 5–6 propagate into the subtropical North Atlantic, preceding the occurrence of AWB events in phases 6–7.
Paper presented at 16th International Conference on Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies (GHGT-16), October 23–27, 2022, Lyon, France. Overcoming data acquisition challenges associated with a lake in the study area, electrical infrastructure around the plant, noise from mine activities, complex near-surface conditions associated with reclaimed mine land, high wind speed, and extremely cold temperatures, data processing, modeling, and inversion of the baseline geophysical data demonstrated the importance of high-quality data for a CO 2 geophysical monitoring program. Implementing more advanced data acquisition and processing techniques in future monitoring surveys can further improve confidence in interpretations of geophysical survey data.