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At least 307 records · Page 17

Development Challenges of Game-Changing Entry System Technologies From Concept to Mission Infusion

Realization within the US and NASA that future exploration both Human and Robotic will require innovative new technologies led to the creation of the Space Technology Mission Directorate and investment in game changing technologies with high pay-off. Some of these investments will see success and others, due to many of the constraints, will not attain their goal. The co-authors of this proposed presentation have been involved from concept to mission infusion aspects of entry technologies that are game changing. The four example technologies used to describe the challenges experienced along the pathways to success are at different levels of maturity. They are Conformal, 3-D MAT, HEEET and ADEPT. The four examples in many ways capture broad aspects of the challenges of maturation and illustrate what led some to be exceptionally successful and how others had to be altered in order remain viable game changing technologies.

Technology↗

Quantifying Energy Flows in PV Circularity Processes: Preprint

As sustainability and end-of-life management become a hot topic to timely address in the PV community, a proper evaluation of the benefits of circular pathways such as recycling, reuse, and remanufacturing has not been performed holistically beyond material flows or LCA analysis. Energy flows are critical for evaluating energy generation technologies. Previously they have been used to compare renewables to fossil generation and then between PV technologies. This paper brings energy flows to bear on reaching circular pathways for PV. The energy flows to track energy usage, generation, and losses complementary to the mass flows are presented for silicon through the leverage of the PV ICE framework.

circular economy↗

Research and Development Pathways for Powering the Blue Economy with Marine Renewable Energy

As marine renewable energy technology is adapted or designed for Blue Economy end-uses, challenges unique to operation at sea and in remote coastal areas must be addressed to meet demands distinct from utility grid electricity generation. Foundational research and development with this end goal is conducted to broadly enable the initiative of Powering the Blue Economy. Determination of distinct R\&D topics is informed by pathways including an engineering design customer-driven approach and feedback from the creation and administration of prize competitions in the Blue Economy technology space. Critical research outcomes, such as determining the performance of small wave energy converters and benchmarking the reliability for power systems at sea, are among the goals of ten foundational R\&D projects currently underway.

Cavagnaro, Robert J.↗

Research and Development Pathways for Powering the Blue Economy with Marine Renewable Energy

As marine renewable energy technology is adapted or designed for Blue Economy end-uses, challenges unique to operation at sea and in remote coastal areas must be addressed to meet demands distinct from utility grid electricity generation. Foundational research and development with this end goal is conducted to broadly enable the initiative of Powering the Blue Economy. Determination of distinct R&D topics is informed by pathways including an engineering design customer-driven approach and feedback from the creation and administration of prize competitions in the Blue Economy technology space. Critical research outcomes, such as determining the performance of small wave energy converters and benchmarking the reliability for power systems at sea, are among the goals of ten foundational R&D projects currently underway.

customer discovery↗

Investigation of Flux Spreading in a Light-Trapping, Planar-Cavity Receiver for Enclosed Solar Particle Heating

Concentrating solar thermal power (CSP) technology development has recently focused on increasing the operating temperatures to accommodate high efficiency power cycles and thermochemical processes. Inert solid particles as heat transfer media enable solar receivers to operate above 700 degrees Celsius resulting in increased system thermal efficiency compared to the conventional molten salt based CSP system. An open-cavity falling-particle solar receiver that can efficiently heat particles by direct heating from concentrated solar radiation faces challenges with large particle losses from wind and unable to support thermochemical reactions. A light-trapping, planar cavity reiver (LTPCR) where particles are indirectly heated can significantly minimize the particle losses during the operation, support thermochemical reactions, and offer scalability potential. The LTPCR features an array of vertical planar receiver/absorber panels arranged within a cavity configuration. Concentrated solar radiation from heliostats is focused onto the receiver walls, where heat is indirectly transferred to solid particles flowing inside the receiver channels. Heat transfer occurs through direct contact between the receiver panel walls and particles, and can be enhanced by fluidizing particles with air. This fluidization increases particle-wall contact and extends particle residence time, maximizing heat transfer efficiency. The unique vertical planar receiver structure originated from a near-blackbody tubular light absorber, effectively distributing the incoming solar beam spread across the panel walls and trapping light. This flux spreading effect, driven by cosine projection, converts high incident solar flux into a lower, more uniform heat flux on the panel walls. This redistribution enhances heat transfer efficiency between particle-wall or reaction gases-wall, while preventing localized overheating of the receiver panel. Indirect planar cavity solar receivers completely separate solid particles from the ambient environment that can greatly reduce the thermal losses in heated particles resulting in high efficiency at high temperatures above 700 degrees Celsius. This design ensures no particle losses to the environment during the operation while open-cavity designs can experience significant particle losses from wind. An experimental investigation was conducted to observe flux spreading on the receiver panel wall. A lab-scale prototype planar receiver, fabricated using Haynes 230 alloy, was tested under direct concentrated solar radiation using the high-flux solar furnace (HFSF) facility at NREL. The experiment was performed under normal peak radiative heat fluxes ranging from 800 to 1900 kW/m2. A temperature distribution on the panel wall was measured using a thermal imaging camera (FLIR A 6600). To prevent overheating at the receiver front tip, prism-shaped heat shields (Zircar UNIFROM C1) were placed in front of the receiver, and their influence on flux spreading was also studied. Absorbed flux distribution on the panel wall was modeled using SolTrace. The total solar power and flux distributions delivered from HFSF were determined based on the heliostat mirror optical properties, direct normal irradiance (DNI) on the on-sun testing days, peak flux measurement during the on-sun testing, and shutter/attenuator settings Due to the large incident angles of the solar beam on the panel wall, the angular optical properties of Haynes 230 alloy and Zircar heat shields were incorporated into the model. This flux distribution model was then integrated into a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation to predict the receiver panel wall temperature, which was compared with the experimental measurements. Both prediction and measurements identified a temperature hotspot at the backside of the panel, indicating that the incident solar beam can fully reach to the rear of the receiver. The heat shields positioned at the front of the receiver effectively reduced the excessive temperature rise at the receiver front tip. Overall, the temperature was well distributed over the panel wall, with a minor hotspot at the back of the receiver. The model slightly overpredicted the temperature, possibly due to discrepancies in optical properties of the panel and an underprediction of thermal loss in the receiver. The advancement of the particle LTPCR offers a viable alternative to open-cavity receivers by addressing particle loss issues. Additionally, it presents a pathway for enabling solar thermochemical processes, extending CSP technology beyond power generation to fuel and chemical production.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Evolution of size-selected Pt cluster catalysts on prototypical oxide supports

The current quest for new pathways into sustainable, efficient and durable energy conversion technologies makes the used for a fundamental understanding of the atomic-scale phenomena underlying catalytic processes ever more pressing. In this context, characterizing catalyst particles in situ provides valuable information about the evolution of their composition, structure, oxidation state and charge state during an ongoing process. To disentangle the influence of individual parameters – temperature, pressure, gas composition, cluster size, as well as support acidity, redox state and defect density – it is crucial to control them precisely and separately in experiments. At the example of size-selected Pt n clusters – i.e. sub-nm particles defined to the exact number of atoms – on flat oxide supports, we follow their rich evolution phenomena via (synchrotron-based) X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) and scanning tunnelling microscopy (STM) during temperature ramps and in various gas environments. Here, we present our experience with these highly defined, yet complicated-to-create samples in ultra-high vacuum (UHV) and at mbar pressures. We discuss their stability during transport to synchrotrons and under reaction conditions on three prototypical oxide supports and show the various phenomena that can be disentangled. Ptn clusters on the non-reducible silicon dioxide, SiO 2 , remain size-selected and show remarkable stability. Doping strongly influences the size-dependent binding energy shifts and changes the Pt response to oxidative and reaction conditions, which we attribute to different cluster geometries: p-type doping leads to wetting, enhanced sinter resistance and a diminished response to oxidative environments, compared to clusters on n-type doped samples. We compare the system with our previous findings of a similar change in dimensionality for Pt 20 clusters on the reducible ceria, CeO 2 (111), support, induced by modulation of its O vacancy density. The Pt n /CeO 2 system is particularly interesting for strategies to stabilize and redisperse Pt clusters dynamically. Finally, we study the evolution of Pt n clusters on another reducible oxide support, magnetite, Fe 3 O 4 (001), in 0.1 mbar alternating redox conditions at RT and elevated temperature. In analogy to findings previously reported for Pt/TiO 2 (110), the clusters either become encapsulated by a thin oxide film via strong metal–support interaction (SMSI) or deeply buried in the magnetite. Overall, our approach of following the evolution of size-selected clusters on oxide supports leads to fundamental atomic-scale insights on nano-scale catalyst materials, on our path to sustainable, dynamic and self-repairing catalysts.

Falling, Lorenz J. [Technical Univ. of Munich (Ger↗

Microbial inoculants for soil restoration: A Risk-Proportional Stewardship Framework Integrating Strain-Resolved Genomics and Adaptive Governance

Global soil degradation and increasing reliance on chemical inputs threaten agricultural sustainability, driving interest in microbial inoculants as tools for soil restoration. These biological products have the potential to enhance nutrient cycling, improve soil structure, and support plant resilience, but their environmental release raises important safety and stewardship considerations. Here, we propose a risk-proportional framework for the responsible deployment of microbial inoculants grounded in release-based stewardship. The framework integrates genome-resolved strain identification, exclusionary hazard screening, bioassay-based risk triage, ecological testing under realistic conditions, and monitored field deployment. Drawing on evidence from microbial ecology and invasion biology, we highlight how inoculants can alter resident microbial communities, influence ecosystem function, and, in some cases, facilitate gene flow, underscoring the need for risk assessment. We further outline a federated, genome-informed data infrastructure to support traceability, cross-jurisdiction learning, and adaptive management. Together, this approach provides a scalable and scientifically grounded pathway to balance innovation and safety, enabling microbial technologies to contribute to soil restoration and climate-resilient agriculture.

Edlund, Anna [OATH Inc]↗

Development of Genetic Algorithm Based Multi-Objective Plant Reload Optimization Platform

The U.S. nuclear industry is facing a challenge in maintaining required levels of safety while ensuring economic competitiveness to stay in business. Safety remains a key parameter for all aspects of light-water reactor nuclear power plant operations. Safety can become more economical by using a risk-informed ecosystem, such as the one being developed in the Risk-Informed Systems Analysis Pathway under the U.S. Department of Energy Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program. The Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program promotes a wide range of research and development activities to maximize both the safety and economic efficiency of nuclear power plants through improved scientific understanding, especially given that many plants are now considering second license renewals. The Risk-Informed Systems Analysis Pathway has two main goals: Deploy methodologies and technologies that better represent safety margins and cost and safety factors; Develop advanced applications that enable cost-effective plant operations. The Plant Reload Optimization Platform development project aims to build a reactor core design tool that includes reactor safety and fuel performance analyses and uses artificial intelligence to support the optimization of core design solutions. This report summarizes genetic-algorithm-based multi-objective fuel reload optimization activities, specifically: Developing the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm II optimizer in the Risk Analysis and Virtual ENviroment (RAVEN); Demonstrating and validating the developed non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm II optimizer using benchmark optimization problems.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Durable, High-Performance Unitized Reversible Fuel Cells Based on Proton Conductors

The main objective of this project was to develop robust, highly efficient, and economically viable H + -conducting membrane-based, unitized reversible fuel cell (H-URFC) technology for large-scale co-located energy storage and power generation. Another objective of this project is to gain a profound understanding of the degradation mechanisms of key stack materials and interfaces using various in situ, ex situ, and operando measurements guided by theoretical analysis. Nanostructured components will be integrated into cell design and the interfaces between electrodes and electrolyte will be modified with active bi-functional catalysts and protective coatings in order to achieve >70% roundtrip efficiency at 1 A/cm2 in both the fuel cell and the electrolysis modes. The end goal of the project is to advance the technology to the point that a university-industry collaboration can be established to scale up the technology for early adoption, and eventually enabling a pathway to large-scale energy storage that utilizes chemical storage and conversion for electrical grid balancing.

08 HYDROGEN↗

A Full-scale Demonstration of Pressurized Water Reactor Core Design Optimization using Multi-Cycle Optimization Methodology

The U.S. nuclear sector encounters a difficulty in upholding essential safety standards while also securing economic viability for continued operation. Safety stands as a pivotal factor across all facets of operations within light-water reactor nuclear power plants. Achieving economic feasibility alongside safety can be facilitated through the utilization of a risk-informed framework, exemplified by the ongoing development within the Risk-Informed Systems Analysis Pathway under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy's LWRS Program. This initiative advocates for a diverse array of research and development endeavors aimed at optimizing both safety and economic efficacy within nuclear power plants, particularly pertinent as many plants contemplate second license renewals. The Risk-Informed Systems Analysis Pathway has two main goals: deploy methodologies and technologies that better represent safety margins and cost and safety factors and develop advanced applications that enable cost-effective plant operation. This report assesses the potential for resolving multi-cycle plant reload challenges through real-world scenarios utilizing the Plant ReLoad Optimization (PRLO) framework. This framework offers reactor core design developers analytic tools of reactor safety and fuel performance with the assistance of artificial intelligence (AI) to enhance core design solutions. Multi-objective genetic algorithm alongside acceleration techniques is explored as an enabling technology for improving fuel efficiency while upholding safety thresholds. The demonstration of multi-cycle core design optimization is performed. This report investigates the practical application of the PRLO platform in addressing real-world core design challenges, supporting AI efforts, and contrasting outcomes with those derived from heuristic or conventional algorithms.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Circularity Futures Workshop Series: Summary Report

The aim of this report is to synthesize key feedback received from the three-part Circularity Futures workshop series held in Spring 2024. The workshop series was conducted by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) on behalf of U.S. Department of Energy, Office Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), and was broken into three workshops: Workshop 1 - Circularity Analysis Needs and Priorities; Workshop 2 - Circularity Metrics and Indicators; and Workshop 3 - Circularity Data. Together, the workshops focused on identifying the existing priorities and gaps in the circularity modeling space, understanding different stakeholders' use and interpretation of circularity metrics and indicators, identifying common data gaps and data quality challenges, and assessing the robustness of available solutions. The workshop series brought a diverse group of stakeholders - including representatives from U.S. government offices, national labs, nonprofit organizations, industry, and academia - to collect first-hand feedback on needs, priorities, challenges and opportunities in the circularity modeling and analysis space. The workshop discussions highlighted numerous common needs, priorities and challenges among the interviewed groups. Several topics were frequently discussed, including: 1) Circularity as a pathway for sustainable economic growth: While circularity is generally defined in terms of resource conservation and reducing wasteful disposal of materials, participants agreed that circular strategies should serve broader economic, environmental, and social goals. It is therefore crucial for circularity analysis to look beyond waste reduction and instead evaluate a variety of impact metrics such as cost savings, job creation, air quality, and pollutant emissions. Mutli-criteria decision-making frameworks may be useful for making sense of disparate metrics and evaluating tradeoffs between impact categories.; 2) Economic and social factors are not well understood: Underdevelopment of existing end-of-life (EOL) management infrastructure, inconsistent standardization codes and policy space in reusing recycled content, and suboptimal collection and sorting strategies collectively contribute to uncertainty about the economic potential of circular pathways. The latter observation is consistent among all technologies but more emphasized for renewable energy systems. Social impacts of circularity practices are less understood and less researched than other sustainability aspects.; 3) Inconsistent methods for assessing emerging technologies: LCA and TEA results vary widely depending on the assumptions made with regards to market adoption of new technologies. Emerging technologies suffer limited availability of data needed to conduct a robust circularity analysis. Yet, understanding projected impacts of proposed nascent technology is a key need for different stakeholder groups.; and 4) Lack of temporally and geospatially explicit data: There is a need for open data that represents variations in circularity technologies over time and location. The lack thereof leads to aggregated and potentially misrepresented results in circularity analysis. Sensitivity analyses should be included to verify whether options perceived as more sustainable align with real-world practices.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Organic Rankine Cycle Integration and Optimization for High Efficiency CHP Genset Systems (Final Technical Report)

This project successfully advanced the integration of Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) technology with reciprocating engine–based combined heat and power (CHP) systems to improve electrical efficiency, total CHP efficiency, and grid-responsive operation. Over three budget periods, the work progressed from high-temperature ORC component development and thermodynamic model validation to next-generation system design, working fluid transition, and techno-economic analysis. Key technical accomplishments include development and validation of a thermodynamic model capable of accurately predicting ORC performance across an expanded temperature and pressure envelope; successful identification and validation of low-global-warming-potential (GWP) working fluids—most notably R1233zd(E)—as viable replacements for R245fa; and demonstration of scalable ORC architectures suitable for integration with 1–20 MW class reciprocating engines. These advances enable flexible CHP configurations that can increase electrical output while maintaining high overall utilization of available thermal energy. The project also produced a clean-sheet design for a next-generation ORC system targeting substantially higher power output per unit, supported by detailed component selection, heat exchanger evaluation, and system-level modeling. Techno-economic analyses indicate that ORC-enabled flexible CHP systems can meet or exceed Department of Energy (DOE) efficiency targets while providing value to both facility operators and the electric grid.. Late-stage testing of the largest next-generation ORC prototype identified limitations related to pump net positive suction head (NPSH) requirements and condenser flooding under certain operating conditions. Although these issues constrained full validation of that configuration within the project timeframe, they provided clear and actionable design guidance for future system refinements. Importantly, validated modeling, smaller-scale testing, and working fluid evaluations confirmed the technical viability of the overall approach. In aggregate, this project met its core objectives by establishing validated design tools, de-risking key ORC technologies for CHP applications, and defining a credible pathway toward commercialization of flexible, high-efficiency CHP systems. The results form a strong foundation for continued development and deployment beyond the conclusion of the DOE-funded effort.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Developing Model Benchtop Systems for Microbial Experimental Evolution

Understanding how microbes impact an ecosystem has improved through advances of molecular and genetic tools, but creating complex systems that emulate natural biology goes beyond current technology. In fact, many chemical, biological, and metabolic pathways of even model organisms are still poorly characterized. Even then, standard laboratory techniques for testing microbial impact on environmental change can have many drawbacks; they are time-consuming, labor intensive, and are at risk of contamination. By having an automated process, many of these problems can be reduced or even eliminated. We are developing a benchtop system that can run for long periods of time without the need for human intervention, involve multiple environmental stressors at once, perform real-time adjustments of stressor exposure based on current state of the population, and minimize contamination risks. Our prototype device allows operators to generate an analogue of real world micro-scale ecosystems that can be used to model the effects of disruptive environmental change on microbial ecosystems. It comprises of electronics, mechatronics, and fluidics based systems to control, measure, and evaluate the before and after state of microbial cultures from exposure to environmental stressors. Currently, it uses four parallel growth chambers to perform tests on liquid cultures. To measure the population state, optical sensors (LED/photodiode) are used. Its primary selection pressure is UV-C radiation, a well-studied stressor known for its cell- and DNA-damaging effects and as a mutagen. Future work will involve improving the current growth chambers, as well as implementing additional sensors and environmental stressors into the system. Full integration of multiple culture testing will allow inter-culture comparisons. Besides the temperature and OD sensors, other types of sensors can be integrated such as conductivity, biomass, pH, and dissolved gasses such as CO and O. Additional environmental stressor systems like temperature (extreme heat or cold), metal toxicity, and other forms of radiation will increase the scale and testing range.

Developing↗

NASA IceCube: CubeSat Demonstration of a Commercial 883-GHz Cloud Radiometer

On April 18 2017, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center's IceCube 3U CubeSat was launched by an ATLAS V rocket from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station on board a Cygnus resupply spacecraft, as part of NASA's CubeSat Launch Initiative. Onboard IceCube was an 883 GHz radiometer tuned to detecting ice content in clouds, marking the first time such frequency was used from low-Earth orbit. IceCube successfully demonstrated retrieval of ice water path, generating the first ever global cloud ice map at 883 GHz. Its success provides valuable lessons on how to approach a severely resource-limited space mission and provides great insight into how this experience can be applied to future high-risk, "non-class" missions for NASA and others. IceCube marks the first official NASA Earth Science CubeSat technology demonstration mission. The spacecraft was completed in about 2.5 years starting April 2014 through launch provider delivery in December of 2016. The mission was jointly funded by NASA's Earth Science Technology Office, after competitive selection, and by NASA's Earth Science Directorate. IceCube began its technology demonstration mission in June 2017, providing a pathway to advancing the understanding of ice clouds and their role in climate models; quite a tall order for a tiny spacecraft.

Radiometer↗

Safety Analysis of FeCrAl Accident-Tolerant Fuels with Increased Enrichment and Extended Burnup

The U.S. nuclear industry is facing a strong challenge to maintain regulatory-required levels of safety while ensuring economic competitiveness to stay in business. Safety remains a key parameter for all aspects related to the operation of light water reactor nuclear power plants (NPPs), and it can be achieved more economically by using a risk-informed ecosystem, such as that being developed by the Risk-Informed Systems Analysis Pathway under the U.S. Department of Energy Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program. This program is promoting a wide range of research and development activities to maximize both the safety and economically efficient performance of NPPs through improved scientific understanding, especially given that many plants are considering a second license renewal. The Risk-Informed Systems Analysis Pathway has two main goals: (1) The deployment of methodologies and technologies that enable a better representation of the safety margins and factors that contribute to cost and safety, and (2) The development of advanced applications that enable cost-effective plant operation. As part of this pathway, the Enhanced Resilient Plant project refers to an NPP where safety is improved by implementing various measures, such as accident-tolerant fuels, diverse and flexible coping strategies, enhancements to plant components and systems, incorporation of augmented or new passive cooling systems, and utilization of advanced battery technologies. The objective of the Enhanced Resilient Plant project is to use novel methods and computational tools to enhance existing reactors’ safety while reducing operational costs. This report documents research and development conducted in support of deployment of accident-tolerant fuels. This project performed safety analyses for the steady-state normal operation, anticipated operational occurrences, and design-basis accidents of a representative four-loop pressurized water reactor model with Zr and FeCrAl accident-tolerant fuel clad with higher enrichment and burnup supporting plant refueling cycles of 18 and 24 months. The source terms and environmental impacts were studied for a large-break loss of coolant accident, including uncertainty analyses.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Biomaterials Out of Thin Air: In Situ, On-Demand Printing of Advanced Biocomposites: A New Materials Design and Production Technique Using 3D-Printed Arrays of Bioengineered Cells

We have completed the proof of concept described in our Phase I proposal, a two-material array of nonstructural proteins. We created an implementation of each step in our technology concept and demonstrated its critical functionality. The biological chassis and printing hardware we created as part of this work can be re-used for future work by inserting a material coding region upstream of the fluorescent tag. Overall, we showed that our technology concept is sound. The mission benefit analyses, as described in our Phase I proposal, are complete and contained in this report. These calculations show that our technology can save hundreds of kilograms of upmass for a potential planetary human habit construction mission: the mass per habitat module can be reduced by approximately one third if the biomaterials are manufactured on Earth and included in the mission upmass, and the full 240 kg per module can be saved if the materials are derived entirely from in situ resources. Mass savings between these two extremes is expected for an actual mission, depending on the level of in situ resource extraction technology. We have shown that continued advancement of this technology concept for use in a space mission environment is justified. Our survey of future development pathways proved extremely informative in light of the lessons learned from our proof of concept work and mission scenario analyses. For example, we were able for the first time to distinguish between the levels of functionality provided by production of structural proteins, other polymers such as polysaccharides, and true organic-inorganic composites such as bone and mineralized shell. This new information represents a significant advance in formulating specific applications, and key enabling technologies, for our proposed concept. We surveyed potential collaborations with other projects and synergies with enabling technologies that are developing. We have received requests for collaboration from other institutions, including labs at Stanford University and Drexel University. We have also received visits from industry, including Organovo, a tissue engineering company, and Autodesk, a major 3D and materials design software company. Finally, we have been in touch with the team behind the 2013 NIAC Phase ll 'Super Ball Bot-Structures for Planetary Landing and Exploration' and are planning to develop our biomaterial printing technology with the goal of enabling tensegrity-based rovers such as theirs to use lighter, more robust materials. A smooth transition from TRL 2 to TRL 3 assumes that the implementations of the technology concept which demonstrate critical functionality are also pathways for future development; while this is the case for most hardware or software projects, the multidisciplinary nature of our project, particularly the biological aspect of it, means that this is not always true. For example, as part of this work we showed that although there are large number of known genetic parts that correspond to non-structural materials, this is not true for sequences for structural organic proteins, let alone biominerals. These realizations allowed us to further subdivide our concept into more detailed development areas, some of which are clearly established at TRL 3, others of which were newly identified sub-technologies moved from TRL 1 to TRL 2. Similarly, although a single feasibility /benefit analysis is sufficient for advancement from TRL 2 to TRL 3, not all potential benefits to a technology concept as broad in scope as ours are apparent at TRL 2. Both our future pathways survey and our proof of concept work highlighted that the true mass savings potential of our technology concept cannot be quantified without modification of existing materials modelling tools to take into account the possibility of positional materials properties customization. Therefore, we have simultaneously both advanced one potential set of applications of our technology concept from TRL 2 to TRL 3 and also identified a previously unknown set of applications and advanced it from TRL 1 to TRL 2. Overall, we have moved the original formulation of our concept forward from TRL 2 to TRL 3, and the expanded formulation of it presented in this document has been advanced from a combination of TRL 1 and early 1RL 2 to an overall late TRL 2. We have also identified the key areas necessary for both short-term and long-term advancement, and made recommendations for specific future work in the most promising directions. With future work on a 1-2 year timeframe to continue advancement to overall TRL 3, we will be well positioned to begin work on a specific space mission technology insertion path.

Biology↗

Variable renewable energy deployment in low-emission scenarios: The role of technology cost and value

While rapid deployment of variable renewable energy (VRE) technologies, namely wind and solar PV, is often projected in 2C pathways generated by integrated assessment models, there is a wide range in projected VRE deployment by mid-century. Such differences could be the result of differences in assumptions about future technology costs and/or differences in model approaches for capturing other aspects of technology competitiveness. Here we introduce a consistent competitiveness metric, profitability-adjusted levelized cost of electricity (or PLCOE), to an integrated assessment model (EPPA) to evaluate the representation of technology competition, including VRE, in low-emission scenarios. We show that representing the value of technology (alongside cost) may significantly impact VRE deployment relative to scenarios without such an adjustment. In addition, we show that varying VRE costs by about 35% in 2050 results in differences in VRE deployment that span much of the range in outcomes (over the same period) observed in likely 2C scenarios assessed by the IPCC, suggesting that both cost and value are key drivers of VRE deployment in such scenarios. Given the central role that VRE technologies play in the electricity mix across most scenarios, we also find that alternative cost assumptions for VRE technologies can lead to changes in electricity prices, the associated demand for electricity, and total final and primary energy consumption. However, the demand for fuels other than electricity is relatively insensitive to VRE assumptions in the 2C scenarios considered here.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Assessing compounding climate-related stresses and development pathways on the power sector in the central U.S.

Future configurations of the power system in the central region of the USA are dependent on relative costs of alternative power generation technologies, energy and environmental policies, and multiple climate-induced stresses. Higher demand in the summer months combined with compounding supply shocks in several power generation technologies can potentially cause a “perfect storm” leading to failure of the power system. Potential future climate stress must be incorporated in investment decisions and energy system planning and operation. We assess how projected future climate impacts on the power system would affect alternative pathways for the electricity sector considering a broad range of generation technologies and changes in demand. We calculate a “potential supply gap” metric for each pathway, system component, and sub-region of the US Heartland due to climate-induced effects on electricity demand and power generation. Potential supply gaps range from 5% in the North Central region under mild changes in climate to 21% in the Lakes-Mid Atlantic region under more severe climate change. We find increases in electricity demand to be more important in determining the size of the potential supply gap than stresses on power generation, while larger shares of renewables in the power system contribute to lower supply gaps. Our results provide a first step toward considering systemic climate impacts that may require changes in managing the grid or on potential additional capacity/reserves that may be needed.

Gurgel, Angelo Costa↗