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DOE OSTI2025

Probabilistic physics of failure approach to fusion systems & Risk-efficiency optimization of nuclear co-generation [Slides]

An overview of the progress made towards two separate summer internship projects: a probabilistic physics of failure approach to fusion systems and a risk efficiency optimization of nuclear co-generation. Original version summarized the progress through end of June, and the revision version summarizes the progress through the entire internship to August 1st.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Idaho National Laboratory Energy Cybersecurity Programs Update

This brief presentation provides a status update on three Idaho National Laboratory energy cybersecurity programs of particular interest to NERC Reliability and Security Technical Committee annual in-person Security Groups summit. Public information on the following three programs is included: Cybersecurity for Operational Technology Environments (CyOTE™) program Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE) Cyber Testing for Resilient Industrial Control Systems (CyTRICS) program, and associated high-level information on the Energy Software Bill of Materials POC, Executive Order 14017, and the Energy Cyber Sense Act

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS2000

A Reliable Earth Return System for Safe Recovery of Mars Samples

The objective of a Mars sample return mission is to bring selected Mars surface materials to Earth. Numerous approaches for the Earth-return segment have been analyzed including propulsive or aerocapture return to low-Earth orbit followed by Space Shuttle rendezvous and direct entry. Of these approaches, ballistic entry of a small capsule terminating in a ground landing has been shown to be the lowest risk strategy. Over the past two years, significant work has been performed towards development of a robust direct entry vehicle for Mars sample return. In June 1999, the NASA Planetary Protection Officer provided initial guidance to the former Mars Sample Return Project. The sample return phase of the mission was assigned a restricted Earth return planetary protection classification. The draft mission requirement states that the total mean probability of release of unsterilized Mars material into the Earth;s biosphere must be less than 1.0E-06 (1 in a million). This strict requirement drives the approach and design of the Earth return system. To meet this requirement, selection of the Earth return strategy and development of the Earth return system must be guided by risk, not performance, based decisions. An initial Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) was performed to address the direct entry Earth return system containment assurance reliability and to identify high-risk elements of this system. The results of this PRA identified risk elements that include thermal protection system performance during entry, spin-eject orientation and aerodynamic stability during entry, structural integrity under atmospheric deceleration and impact loads, and tracking/recovery of this system. This initial probabilistic risk quantification demonstrates that, with the proper development program, a prototypical direct entry design can satisfy the containment assurance reliability requirement. Through the current Mars Sample Return Advanced Technology Development effort, an extensive design, analysis, and test program is presently proceeding with the aim of reducing the containment assurance risk of this system. This technology development effort, guided by a continuing PRA, focuses on key risk areas of a direct entry Earth return system including: the thermal protection system, impact dynamics, structural performance, aerodynamic stability, and ground recovery. This development program will culminate in a system validation flight test, 1-2 years prior to launch of the flight system. This flight test would include the launch, entry, and recovery of a full-scale Earth return system, as a scientific validation of the key risk elements to verify nominal design performance. The results of the initial PRA suggested several dominant failure sequences that can be validated in a flight test. These include: demonstrating the thermal protection system reliability and performance during entry, demonstrating the spin-eject orientation and aero-dynamic stability during entry, demonstrating the structural integrity under atmospheric deceleration and impact loads, and demonstrating tracking and recovery of the Earth return system. This single test will directly address over 50% of the total containment assurance risk elements. This presentation will begin by presenting the relative risk of various Earth return strategies. The results of the initial probabilistic risk assessment will be presented followed by a discussion of the development accomplishments and plans for demonstration of a highly reliable direct entry Earth return system.

Braun, R.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Ampaire ARPA-e Electric Flight Testbed

A hybrid-electric aircraft flying testbed was developed in this program with the intent to serve as a dedicated, enduring testbed to test and evaluate ARPA-e CIRCUITS Program and other electrified aviation technologies in relevant flight environments. This testbed enabled rapid development cycles of novel and innovative technologies in the electrified aviation space, maturing them from a research lab environment to flying in an aircraft. By providing research groups with the means to test their transformative technologies in a real-world, aircraft environment, the path to validating the safety and reliability of their technologies for future commercial opportunities was greatly accelerated. Three core technologies were integrated and tested: an inverter/motor drive built by the University of Arkansas, a solid-state circuit breaker (iBreaker) built by the Illinois Institute of Technology, and a Flying Capacitor Multi-level (FCML) DC/DC converter built by the University of California, Berkeley. In each of these cases, the requirements established for safety of flight resulted in a holistic approach to the designs, evoking a deeper understanding of the potential failure modes and mitigations necessary to build a robust and flightworthy system. Further, the integration into a hybrid-electric aircraft de-risked the potential electrical and mechanical issues that cannot easily be experienced or replicated in a lab environment. The experiments were also required to undergo representative temperature, shock, and vibration testing as the FAA prescribes for this category of aircraft, facilitating familiarity with the relevant design and test guidelines necessary to commercialize the technologies. This testbed unlocks the massive potential of core power electronics technologies necessary for a safe, robust, and efficient electric aviation future. With quick iterative design, test, and flight cycles, these core technologies are on a quicker path to technology readiness level maturity and commercialization, enabling a more sustainable future for the aviation industry.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Sustainable production of 5-hydroxymethyl furfural from glucose for process integration with high fructose corn syrup infrastructure

5-Hydroxymethyl furfural (HMF) is a platform chemical, which can be derived from lignocellulosic biomass, and used for production of liquid fuels and polymers. We demonstrate a process for production of HMF using sequential enzymatic and catalytic reactions of glucose to synthesize HMF, and simulated-moving-bed (SMB) separation to purify HMF. The adsorption thermodynamic parameters of glucose, fructose, and HMF on a commercial chromatography resin are experimentally determined for modeling the SMB-based HMF production process. The experimental data are used to develop a rigorous process model and then estimate the cost of production. Chromatographic separation of HMF has 16% lower operating costs compared to an extraction-based process and has a minimum selling price of approximately $1478 per ton. We demonstrate that the HMF process can be integrated with the high fructose corn syrup (HFCS) process, and we performed analyses considering two systems including construction of a new integrated facility and retrofitting an existing HFCS facility to produce HMF. Our analyses suggest that the latter approach is a promising short-term low-risk strategy to advance the HMF production technology to commercial scale.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2023

LANSCE Facility Longevity Assessment

This LANSCE Facility Longevity Assessment examined 34 total systems critical to the operation of the LANSCE accelerator complex. These systems are primarily owned, operated, and maintained by AOT Division. Based on the criteria used in this assessment, there are 12 AOT Division systems that are potential high risk as related to longterm LANSCE operations. These systems may also impact the success of LAMP. Also summarized in this report are the facility activities planned over the next decade. These include general facility maintenance and infrastructure upgrades, as well as planned electrical system upgrades. The LANSCE Facility Operations (LFO) Division is responsible for this activity scope and budget planning. Most of the planned activities are general in nature and should have little impact on accelerator operations or LAMP activities as currently envisioned. However, close coordination with between AOT, LFO, and LAMP would be prudent. A next step should be to develop an actionable plan to address the high-risk systems. Potential criteria for developing such a plan could include: (1) Evaluating the global impact of the system (operations, program, safety, etc.), (2) Ranking by impact (ranked now by risk), (3) Estimating cost to implement the corrective actions (Is there already a plan or not?), and (4) Estimating the time required for corrective actions. An alternative could include integration of the assessment data into both the Asset Management System and the Maintenance Analytics Risk Register.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

NASA NTRS1992

Mars: Past, present, and future; Proceedings of the Conference, Williamsburg, VA, July 16-19, 1991

The present conference discusses the terraforming of Mars, the history of the Viking lander efforts, prospective Mars exploration management and research initiatives in view of the Viking Missions, the rationale and constituencies for NASA's Space Exploration Initiative, Mars mission benefits, and a Congressional perspective on the Space Exporation initiative. Also discussed are a risk-based approach to robotic mission requirements, a Mars Environment Survey Mission concept, a Mars network of surface stations, Mars sample-return mission options, an integrated STS for Mars exploration, nuclear propulsion technology development by NASA/DOE, radiation shielding en route to Mars and on the surface, advanced technologies for nuclear propulsion, and 'smart' space suits for space exploration.

Pritchard, E. B.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Integrated Medical Model Project - Overview and Summary of Historical Application

Introduction: The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) Project represents one aspect of NASA's Human Research Program (HRP) to quantitatively assess medical risks to astronauts for existing operational missions as well as missions associated with future exploration and commercial space flight ventures. The IMM takes a probabilistic approach to assessing the likelihood and specific outcomes of one hundred medical conditions within the envelope of accepted space flight standards of care over a selectable range of mission capabilities. A specially developed Integrated Medical Evidence Database (iMED) maintains evidence-based, organizational knowledge across a variety of data sources. Since becoming operational in 2011, version 3.0 of the IMM, the supporting iMED, and the expertise of the IMM project team have contributed to a wide range of decision and informational processes for the space medical and human research community. This presentation provides an overview of the IMM conceptual architecture and range of application through examples of actual space flight community questions posed to the IMM project. Methods: Figure 1 [see document] illustrates the IMM modeling system and scenario process. As illustrated, the IMM computational architecture is based on Probabilistic Risk Assessment techniques. Nineteen assumptions and limitations define the IMM application domain. Scenario definitions include crew medical attributes and mission specific details. The IMM forecasts probabilities of loss of crew life (LOCL), evacuation (EVAC), quality time lost during the mission, number of medical resources utilized and the number and type of medical events by combining scenario information with in-flight, analog, and terrestrial medical information stored in the iMED. In addition, the metrics provide the integrated information necessary to estimate optimized in-flight medical kit contents under constraints of mass and volume or acceptable level of mission risk. Results and Conclusions: Historically, IMM simulations support Science and Technology planning, Exploration mission planning, and ISS program operations by supplying simulation support, iMED data information, and subject matter expertise to Crew Health and Safety and the HRP. Upcoming release of IMM version 4.0 seeks to provide enhanced functionality to increase the quality of risk decisions made using the IMM through a more accurate representation of the real world system.

Myers, J.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Air STAR Beyond Visual Range UAS Description and Preliminary Test Results

The NASA Airborne Subscale Transport Aircraft Research Unmanned Aerial System project's capabilities were expanded by updating the system design and concept of operations. The new remotely piloted airplane system design was flight tested to assess integrity and operational readiness of the design to perform flight research. The purpose of the system design is to improve aviation safety by providing a capability to validate, in high-risk conditions, technologies to prevent airplane loss of control. Two principal design requirements were to provide a high degree of reliability and that the new design provide a significant increase in test volume (relative to operations using the previous design). The motivation for increased test volume is to improve test efficiency and allow new test capabilities that were not possible with the previous design and concept of operations. Three successful test flights were conducted from runway 4-22 at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center's Wallops Flight Facility.

Cunningham, Kevin↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Gateway at the Crossroads of Sustainable Lunar Exploration

The Gateway Program has made substantial design and development progress toward delivering a small, human-tended lunar space station purposefully designed to enable sustainable human exploration. The Program integrates partners and providers organizationally and physically as part of the spacecraft. The Power and Propulsion Element (PPE) and the Habitation and Logistics Outpost (HALO) with the European System Providing Refueling, Infrastructure and Telecommunications (ESPRIT) HALO Lunar Communications System (HLCS) have begun manufacturing the long lead components and will be launched first as a Co-Manifested Vehicle (CMV). The International Habitat (I-Hab) and ESPRIT Refueling Module (ERM) are passing life cycle milestones and include capabilities key for human crewmembers, such as windows, private sleeping quarters, and galley functions. The Logistics Module (LM) may provide a variety of services to Gateway depending on each mission. Requirements for the airlock have been developed, including requests that it support the integrated spacecraft with functions like augmenting heat rejection capabilities, and interfaces with new spacesuits will soon be developed in more detail. As a critical element of the architecture for solar system exploration, Gateway implements key tenets and features of international interoperability standards necessary to operate with multiple visiting vehicles and lunar assets, especially avionics, communications, and docking. Specific choices such as software architecture and standards, power standards, and robotics standards make it possible to utilize heritage or proprietary technology, yet still operate as one spacecraft. Engineering teams are evaluating many possible future missions to be executed at or utilizing the Gateway. The system architecture protects for an evolvable, extensible, and flexible capability. Designing systems robust enough to serve as a cornerstone of exploration activities for decades while remaining adaptable is not without its challenges. The detailed integration activities have revealed challenges and the need to mature key technologies. Refueling is a key component of achieving long life for Gateway, with unique operations to plan, safety concerns to mitigate, and risk reduction activities to conduct to better understand the system. The constraints and impacts of the design of visiting vehicles is also an important concern, with orientation constraints, control of attitude and orbit of the Gateway with docked visiting vehicles. Tradeoffs between robust maintainable systems and lightweight, compact systems must be balanced. Opportunities still exist for adding additional advanced capabilities to increase and extend Gateway’s benefits, such as intravehicular robotics, autonomous Guidance Navigation and Control (GN&C), and augmented control propulsion, heat rejection, or other services.

Molly S Anderson↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

800 °C Demonstrated kHz SiC IC Electronics and Pressure Sensors as Technical Foundation for Realizing MHz DARPA HOTS Goals

The HOTS program will develop a technology for high-bandwidth, high-dynamic-range sensing at high temperature. Performance will be validated through the development and demonstration of a pressure sensor module (i.e., integrated transducer and signal-conditioning microelectronics) achieving the following performance goals: NASA Glenn has unique technology experience in extreme environment pressure sensors & IC electronics, including at 800 °C in air, providing significant risk reduction in meeting DARPA HOTS goals. Appropriate partnership and tech transfer should accelerate realization of DARPA HOTS hard technical challenges.

SiC pressure sensor electronics high temperature↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Gateway at the Crossroads of Sustainable Lunar Exploration

Molly S Anderson↗

DOE OSTI2020

Assessing Current and Future Infrastructure Hazards

Project Objective Execute intelligent analytics via an advanced analytical framework, to assess the current state of offshore infrastructure, evaluate infrastructure life, and identify technologies to reduce infrastructure hazards, costs, and extend infrastructure life. Approach & Results thus Far• Build comprehensive dataset• Perform data-driven analytics to evaluate infrastructure integrity 1. Remaining lifespan 2. Likelihood of future risk• Apply data-driven advanced spatial, statistical, and Machine Learning (ML) models to quantify existing infrastructure integrity• Release data and models through a smart, online platform hosted by Energy Data eXchange (EDX)

Romeo, Lucy F.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Methodolgy For Evaluation Of Technology Impacts In Space Electric Power Systems

The Analysis and Management branch of the Power and Propulsion Office at NASA Glenn Research Center is responsible for performing complex analyses of the space power and In-Space propulsion products developed by GRC. This work quantifies the benefits of the advanced technologies to support on-going advocacy efforts. The Power and Propulsion Office is committed to understanding how the advancement in space technologies could benefit future NASA missions. They support many diverse projects and missions throughout NASA as well as industry and academia. The area of work that we are concentrating on is space technology investment strategies. Our goal is to develop a Monte-Carlo based tool to investigate technology impacts in space electric power systems. The framework is being developed at this stage, which will be used to set up a computer simulation of a space electric power system (EPS). The outcome is expected to be a probabilistic assessment of critical technologies and potential development issues. We are developing methods for integrating existing spreadsheet-based tools into the simulation tool. Also, work is being done on defining interface protocols to enable rapid integration of future tools. Monte Carlo-based simulation programs for statistical modeling of the EPS Model. I decided to learn and evaluate Palisade's @Risk and Risk Optimizer software, and utilize it's capabilities for the Electric Power System (EPS) model. I also looked at similar software packages (JMP, SPSS, Crystal Ball, VenSim, Analytica) available from other suppliers and evaluated them. The second task was to develop the framework for the tool, in which we had to define technology characteristics using weighing factors and probability distributions. Also we had to define the simulation space and add hard and soft constraints to the model. The third task is to incorporate (preliminary) cost factors into the model. A final task is developing a cross-platform solution of this framework.

Holda, Julie↗

DOE OSTI2022

Cloud-Control of Legacy Building Automation System: A case study

As Internet of Things devices and cloud-based platforms become more mature, Energy Management and Information Systems (EMIS) are increasingly gaining momentum in the building industry. In large commercial buildings, Fault-Detection and Diagnostic (FDD) and energy information systems (EIS) are now established technologies with tens of providers and thousands of deployment sites across North America. The new frontier for the EMIS technology is now represented by control systems that use advanced system optimization (ASO) methods to improve the operations of the HVAC system. Given the complexity of the integration of such systems with the existing building automation systems (BAS) and the higher risk involved with direct control of the HVAC, these systems are still emerging in the market. This paper presents the results of a project in which a start-up company partnered with a research institution to develop a cloud-based software EMIS solution and deployed it in a university campus in California. The software system included advanced sensing, data acquisition, storage and advanced control and analytics applications developed on top of the native BAS. The new platform controls ten buildings on the campus and the FDD and the ASO applications deployed on this platform were able to generate energy savings of up to 35% and 25% in certain buildings for each functionality respectively. Where the platform did not save energy, it improved building service (air quality). Lessons learned include the importance of collaborating with and training the building operators and evaluating whether the legacy system can work reliably with the new technology.

Prakash, Anand Krishnan↗

NASA NTRS1999

A Design Heritage-Based Forecasting Methodology for Risk Informed Management of Advanced Systems

The development of next generation systems often carries with it the promise of improved performance, greater reliability, and reduced operational costs. These expectations arise from the use of novel designs, new materials, advanced integration and production technologies intended for functionality replacing the previous generation. However, the novelty of these nascent technologies is accompanied by lack of operational experience and, in many cases, no actual testing as well. Therefore some of the enthusiasm surrounding most new technologies may be due to inflated aspirations from lack of knowledge rather than actual future expectations. This paper proposes a design heritage approach for improved reliability forecasting of advanced system components. The basis of the design heritage approach is to relate advanced system components to similar designs currently in operation. The demonstrated performance of these components could then be used to forecast the expected performance and reliability of comparable advanced technology components. In this approach the greater the divergence of the advanced component designs from the current systems the higher the uncertainty that accompanies the associated failure estimates. Designers of advanced systems are faced with many difficult decisions. One of the most common and more difficult types of these decisions are those related to the choice between design alternatives. In the past decision-makers have found these decisions to be extremely difficult to make because they often involve the trade-off between a known performing fielded design and a promising paper design. When it comes to expected reliability performance the paper design always looks better because it is on paper and it addresses all the know failure modes of the fielded design. On the other hand there is a long, and sometimes very difficult road, between the promise of a paper design and its fulfillment; with the possibility that sometimes the reliability promise is not fulfilled at all. Decision makers in advanced technology areas have always known to discount the performance claims of a design to a degree in proportion to its stage of development, and at times have preferred the more mature design over the one of lesser maturity even with the latter promising substantially better performance once fielded. As with the broader measures of performance this has also been true for projected reliability performance. Paper estimates of potential advances in design reliability are to a degree uncertain in proportion to the maturity of the features being proposed to secure those advances. This is especially true when performance-enhancing features in other areas are also planned to be part of the development program.

Maggio, Gaspare↗

NASA NTRS2012

A Proposed Strategy for the U.S. to Develop and Maintain a Mainstream Capability Suite ("Warehouse") for Automated/Autonomous Rendezvous and Docking in Low Earth Orbit and Beyond

The ability of space assets to rendezvous and dock/capture/berth is a fundamental enabler for numerous classes of NASA fs missions, and is therefore an essential capability for the future of NASA. Mission classes include: ISS crew rotation, crewed exploration beyond low-Earth-orbit (LEO), on-orbit assembly, ISS cargo supply, crewed satellite servicing, robotic satellite servicing / debris mitigation, robotic sample return, and robotic small body (e.g. near-Earth object, NEO) proximity operations. For a variety of reasons to be described, NASA programs requiring Automated/Autonomous Rendezvous and Docking/Capture/Berthing (AR&D) capabilities are currently spending an order-of-magnitude more than necessary and taking twice as long as necessary to achieve their AR&D capability, "reinventing the wheel" for each program, and have fallen behind all of our foreign counterparts in AR&D technology (especially autonomy) in the process. To ensure future missions' reliability and crew safety (when applicable), to achieve the noted cost and schedule savings by eliminate costs of continually "reinventing the wheel ", the NASA AR&D Community of Practice (CoP) recommends NASA develop an AR&D Warehouse, detailed herein, which does not exist today. The term "warehouse" is used herein to refer to a toolbox or capability suite that has pre-integrated selectable supply-chain hardware and reusable software components that are considered ready-to-fly, low-risk, reliable, versatile, scalable, cost-effective, architecture and destination independent, that can be confidently utilized operationally on human spaceflight and robotic vehicles over a variety of mission classes and design reference missions, especially beyond LEO. The CoP also believes that it is imperative that NASA coordinate and integrate all current and proposed technology development activities into a cohesive cross-Agency strategy to produce and utilize this AR&D warehouse. An initial estimate indicates that if NASA strategically coordinates the development of a robust AR&D capability across the Agency, the cost of implementing AR&D on a spacecraft could be reduced from roughly $70M per mission to as low as $7M per mission, and the associated development time could be reduced from 4 years to 2 years, after the warehouse is completely developed. Table 1 shows the clear long-term benefits to the Agency in term of costs and schedules for various missions. (The methods used to arrive at the Table 1 numbers is presented in Appendices A and B.)

Krishnakumar, Kalmanje S.↗

NASA NTRS2019

In-Time System-Wide Safety Assurance (ISSA) Concept of Operations

Emerging operations involving Urban Air Mobility (UAM) poses a challenge to safety assurance and accessibility to the NAS. In particular, the public has a low tolerance for risk in aviation and the current NAS tends to be labor-intensive with limited ability to scale up for UAM. In response to this landscape, NASA is collaborating with industry to define an In-time Aviation Safety Management System (IASMS) Concept of Operations (ConOps) for a scalable UAM along with a service-oriented architecture. This architecture would better focus safety investments for technological solutions that overcome safety related barriers for emerging operations. By working with industry, consensus can be reached on desirable system traits that are based on integration of data and leverage increasingly autonomous and automated systems. These complex systems can identify anomalies, precursors, and trends that together enable more proactive management of operational risks.

Ellis, Kyle↗