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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Adaptive Discovery and Mixed-Variable Optimization of Next Generation Synthesizable Microelectronic Materials

Design of new microelectronic materials is characterized by several challenges such as high-dimensionality of the atomic structure-composition variable space, formidable cost of directly using high-fidelity simulations for design optimization, dispersity in literature-reported similar materials and synthesis methods, complex physical mechanisms, and mixed qualitative and quantitative design variables that lead to a disjointed design space. Even though machine learning (ML) techniques have been employed to expedite materials innovation, existing methods treat ML and design optimization as two separate processes, failing to resolve the fundamental challenges associated with high dimensionality and mixed-variable complexity. We have developed a ML enhanced mixed-variable material design optimization framework to efficiently extract useful information from existing data in literature and physics-based simulations to guide the autonomous search for optimal materials. Our proposed framework is composed of four computational modules: (1) a natural language processing (NLP) based virtual screening module, (2) classification based concept exploration module, (3) a density functional theory (DFT)-based high-fidelity evaluation model, and (4) a novel latent-variable Gaussian process (LVGP) ML model for mixed-variable problems with uncertainty quantification, which seamlessly integrates with Bayesian Optimization (BO) and achieves superb efficiency through embedded physics-based dimension reduction. Our approach is demonstrated and validated using the testbed of functional materials exhibiting metal-insulation transitions (MITs), with the targeted reversible resistivity changes (∼10^5) near room temperature. At the end of the 30-month project, we have developed a series of new ML techniques using NLP, conditional variational autoencoders, active learning, latent-variable Gaussian processes, integrated with Bayesian optimization. Our project has resulted in new predicted MITs compounds and improved understanding of MITs microscopic mechanisms, which in turn will revolutionize microelectronics science to provide energy-saving solutions. Our research has improved both creativity and efficiency in transforming rare-event discoveries of new functional materials to persistent innovations. In addition to open-sourcing the online MIT database and the classification model, the LVGP open source code has been downloaded more than 15,000 times within two years. More than 40 MIT compounds have been identified and many have been pursued experimentally via collaborators. The research results are published in close to 20 collaborative papers in high-impact journals, such as Chem. Mater., Appl. Phys. Rev., Sci. Rep., among others of design space.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Thermal Hydraulic Modeling of an Advanced Nuclear Reactor using open-source MOOSE tools

The aim of this study is to develop model of a small High Temperature Gas cooled Reactor (HTGR) including the balance of plant. This microreactor produces electricity using the thermal power of the nuclear reaction. This work utilizes the MOOSE Multiphysics simulation tools, which are mainly developed at Idaho National Laboratory (INL, Idaho, United States of America). Its thermal-hydraulics and Heat conduction Modules are used to study the fluids behavior in the primary loop and power conversion system and their interactions with the heating structures. More specifically, one verifies that the temperatures, pressures and mass flow rates of the fluids in both loops are consistent and that, at the same time, all the power transfers occur as expected. Moreover, the various mechanical components characteristics (turbine, compressor, pump) are adapted to the reactor operating conditions. This first analysis is conducted using simplified and one-dimensional model for the core. Ultimately, the obtained results are used to build a higher fidelity core model. This step aims to verify that the initial simplified simulation is consistent with the three-dimensional core modeling. In addition, the calculated material temperatures are checked. This study provides a fairly complete model of the thermal hydraulic phenomena for a particular design of High Temperature Gas cooled Reactor.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Theoretical framework for new magnetic materials for quantum computing and information storage. Final report for the Award No. DE-SC0018910

The focus of this grant was on molecular magnetic materials for information storage and quantum computing. We have been developing robust, first-principle methods for computing relevant electronic and magnetic properties of molecular building blocks (SMMs) of novel magnetic materials and quantum computers. These tools enable theoretical modeling of SMMs’ behavior, facilitating the interpretation of experimental studies and aiding the design of novel magnetic materials. Our strategy is based on the spin-flip (SF) approach, which extends the hierarchy of black-box single-reference methods to strongly correlated systems. Specifically, we developed general scalable algorithms and computer codes for calculating molecular properties, with an emphasis on spin-related properties, such as zero-field splittings, hyperfine couplings, and g-tensors. While our primary focus was on SF wave functions and SF-TDDFT, the underlying theory and computer codes were formulated using reduced density matrices, such that these tools are applicable to a broader class of methods. To extend the scope of applicability of wave-function-based SF methods to larger systems, we developed reduced-scaling approaches for the equation-of-motion coupled-cluster (EOM-CC) methods and continue developing libtensor (our open-source general tensor contraction library for many-body methods). We carried out extensive benchmarks and also carried out several applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Breakups are complicated: an efficient representation of collisional breakup in the superdroplet method

Abstract. A key constraint of particle-based methods for modeling cloud microphysics is the conservation of total particle number, which is required for computational tractability. The process of collisional breakup poses a particular challenge to this framework, as breakup events often produce many droplet fragments of varying sizes, which would require creating new particles in the system. This work introduces a representation of collisional breakup in the so-called “superdroplet” method which conserves the total number of superdroplets in the system. This representation extends an existing stochastic collisional-coalescence scheme and samples from a fragment size distribution in an additional Monte Carlo step. This method is demonstrated in a set of idealized box model and single-column warm-rain simulations. We further discuss the effects of the breakup dynamic and fragment size distribution on the particle size distribution, hydrometeor population, and microphysical process rates. Box model experiments serve to characterize the impacts of properties such as coalescence efficiency and fragmentation function on the relative roles of collisional breakup and coalescence. The results demonstrate that this representation of collisional breakup can produce a stationary particle size distribution, in which breakup and coalescence rates are approximately equal, and that it recovers expected behavior such as a reduction in precipitate-sized particles in the column model. The breakup algorithm presented here contributes to an open-source pythonic implementation of the superdroplet method, PySDM, which will facilitate future research using particle-based microphysics.

de Jong, Emily (ORCID:0000000253104554)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Thermodynamics and its prediction and CALPHAD modeling: Review, state of the art, and perspectives

Thermodynamics is a science concerning the state of a system, whether it is stable, metastable, or unstable, when interacting with its surroundings. The combined law of thermodynamics derived by Gibbs about 150 years ago laid the foundation of thermodynamics. In Gibbs combined law, the entropy production due to internal processes was not included, and the 2nd law was thus practically removed from the Gibbs combined law, so it is only applicable to systems under equilibrium, thus commonly termed as equilibrium or Gibbs thermodynamics. Gibbs further derived the classical statistical thermodynamics in terms of the probability of configurations in a system in the later 1800's and early 1900's. With the quantum mechanics (QM) developed in 1920's, the QM-based statistical thermodynamics was established and connected to classical statistical thermodynamics at the classical limit as shown by Landau in the 1940's. In 1960's the development of density functional theory (DFT) by Kohn and co-workers enabled the QM prediction of properties of the ground state of a system. On the other hand, the entropy production due to internal processes in non-equilibrium systems was studied separately by Onsager in 1930's and Prigogine and co-workers in the 1950's. In 1960's to 1970's the digitization of thermodynamics was developed by Kaufman in the framework of the CALculation of PHAse Diagrams (CALPHAD) modeling of individual phases with internal degrees of freedom. CALPHAD modeling of thermodynamics and atomic transport properties has enabled computational design of complex materials in the last 50 years. Our recently termed zentropy theory integrates DFT and statistical mechanics through the replacement of the internal energy of each individual configuration by its DFT-predicted free energy. The zentropy theory is capable of accurately predicting the free energy of individual phases, transition temperatures and properties of magnetic and ferroelectric materials with free energies of individual configurations solely from DFT-based calculations and without fitting parameters, and is being tested for other phenomena including superconductivity, quantum criticality, and black holes. Those predictions include the singularity at critical points with divergence of physical properties, negative thermal expansion, and the strongly correlated physics. Furthermore, those individual configurations may thus be considered as the genomic building blocks of individual phases in the spirit of the materials genome®. This has the potential to shift the paradigm of CALPHAD modeling from being heavily dependent on experimental inputs to becoming fully predictive with inputs solely from DFT-based calculations and machine learning models built on those calculations and existing experimental data through newly developed and future open-source tools. Furthermore, through the combined law of thermodynamics including the internal entropy production, it is shown that the kinetic coefficient matrix of independent internal processes is diagonal with respect to the conjugate potentials in the combined law, and the cross phenomena that the phenomenological Onsager flux and reciprocal relationships are due to the dependence of the conjugate potential of a molar quantity on nonconjugate molar quantities and other potentials, which can be predicted by the zentropy theory and CALPHAD modeling.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Moltensaltpropnet

MoltenSaltPropnet is a physics-informed machine learning framework that aims to predict the thermophysical properties of molten fluoride and chloride salt mixtures, which are crucial for the design and safety of Generation IV molten salt reactors. The code processes data from the Molten-Salt Thermal Properties Database (MSTDB-TP) and the Janz compendium, converting critically evaluated correlations into fast, differentiable surrogate models for density, viscosity, thermal conductivity, and heat capacity across 448 distinct salt systems. The implementation consists of several key components: 1. Data Curation: The code parses and cleans the raw data, normalizing elemental mole fractions and extracting relevant regression coefficients for various thermophysical properties. 2. Feature Engineering: It generates fixed-length numerical descriptors that encapsulate the composition and temperature, incorporating polynomial interaction terms and dimensionality-reduction techniques to optimize model performance. 3. Coefficient Learning: Four different machine learning architectures are employed: a deep residual network (ResNet), a Kolmogorov–Arnold network (KAN), a sparsity-inducing neural network (SNN), and classical regression models. Each model learns to predict coefficients that define the temperature-dependent correlations for the thermophysical properties. 4. Property Reconstruction: The predicted coefficients are used to compute temperature-dependent property values, ensuring positivity and monotonic trends through a composite loss function that enforces physical constraints. 5. User Interface: An open-source web application enables users to filter the database, train task-specific models, and visualize the results, allowing for rapid exploration of candidate salt mixtures. MoltenSaltPropnet bridges the gap between limited experimental data and high-fidelity reactor simulations, providing a powerful tool for researchers in the field of molten salt reactors and advanced nuclear energy systems.

Retamales, Mauricio Eduardo Tano [Idaho National L↗
DOE OSTI2025

Development of a River Dynamical Core for E3SM to simulate compound flooding on Exascale-class heterogeneous supercomputers

Flooding events pose significant risk to human life, property, and infrastructure. Physically-consistent quantification of altered flood risks in global models requires hyper-resolution (~1 km) or fine flood simulations using two-dimensional (2D) physics schemes, both of which are unavailable in the current generation Earth System Models. Here, in this work, we have developed the River Dynamical Core (RDycore), which is an open-source, 2D shallow water equation (SWE) library for the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). RDycore uses PETSc and libCEED libraries that allows it to run efficiently on CPUs and GPUs, as well as select a time-integration algorithm at runtime without requiring any code modifications. RDycore achieves spatial error convergence rates for problems with analytical and manufactured solutions similar to those reported previously in the literature, or consistent with the implemented first-order spatial discretization scheme. RDycore's accuracy in predicting flooding for a well-studied dam break problem is comparable to existing SWE models. For a problem with 471 million grid cells, RDycore achieves a speedup of 6.6x and 7.6x on GPUs compared to CPUs when using 320 compute nodes on DOE's Perlmutter and Frontier supercomputers, respectively. The one-way coupling of the RDycore library within E3SM is demonstrated by performing multiple 5-day flooding simulations during Hurricane Harvey driven by five precipitation datasets. The E3SM--RDycore simulations at 30 m spatial resolution accurately simulate maximum water height during the hurricane when benchmarked against a previously published study and achieve a speedup of 15x (Perlmutter) and 21x (Frontier) on GPUs relative to CPUs. The work presented here is the foundational step in providing hardware and algorithmic portability framework for simulating kilometer-scale river dynamics within E3SM.

Flood Simulation↗
DOE OSTI2025

Tutorial: Machine-Learning-Based CREASE-2D Analysis of 2D SAXS Profiles to Characterize Anisotropic Nanostructures in Soft Materials

We present a tutorial to guide users on how to extend the Computational Reverse Engineering Analysis of Scattering Experiments-2D (CREASE-2D) framework to interpret their experimental two-dimensional small-angle scattering (SAS) data from soft materials (e.g., polymers, peptide amphiphiles, biomolecular fibrils). Unlike most traditional SAS analysis approaches, which typically rely on azimuthally averaged onedimensional (1D) profiles, CREASE-2D utilizes the complete 2D scattering profile to reveal information about anisotropy in the structure. In past applications, CREASE has provided insights into complex structural features, including the cross-sectional shapes of assembled nanostructures and dispersity in these features, which are difficult to discern with existing analytical models. While (1D- ) CREASE has been applied to SANS and SAXS data, this tutorial shares the steps for implementing CREASE-2D using an example of a dipeptide solution system, for which we have SAXS data. We present details for these steps involved in using CREASE-2D to interpret SAXS profiles: how to preprocess SAXS data, define relevant structural features, generate three-dimensional real-space structures for specific values of these features, train a machine learning (ML) surrogate model to predict scattering profiles for given structural features, and optimize these features using genetic algorithms (GA). Then, we use these steps to interpret complex 2DSAXS data collected from dipeptide solutions that, in microscopy images, exhibit nanoscale structures that could be elliptical tubes/ flat tapes/cylinders or a combination of these cross sections. Open-source codes, computational hardware, and software requirements, as well as the strengths and limitations of this protocol, are also presented. We expect researchers working with (soft) biomaterials, peptide amphiphiles, amphiphilic polymer solutions, polymer nanocomposites, and blends of particles/polymers will find this CREASE-2D method and this tutorial of use.

CREASE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Verification of a Fluid-Based Plasma-Edge Model Within the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) Framework

As the goal of achieving fusion power on the grid comes closer to fruition, fully coupled multiphysics models of fusion devices will be crucial. These models must incorporate the interconnected phenomena of these devices, including plasma physics, neutronics, first wall interactions, and tritium transport. Currently, there are two main approaches to developing these platforms: (1) loosely coupled, where one couples existing codes and solvers together through input and output parameters and data, and (2) tightly coupled, where one develops the necessary models within a singular, integrated framework. This work focuses on the latter approach for magnetically confined fusion devices by developing a fluid-based plasma-edge model within the Multiphysics Object Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) Framework. This effort is coordinated with other efforts to develop, test, demonstrate, and deploy fusion relevant multiphysics capabilities including electromagnetics, particle-in-cell plasma, tritium transport, and fusion blanket design. This new model is an expansion of the MOOSE-based plasma application, Zapdos, which was originally formulated to model low-temperature, non-magnetized plasma processes. Verification studies have been conducted using newly developed magnetic plasma capabilities. These involved convergence analyses utilizing the method of manufactured solutions to verify new operators and case studies. A modular approach was taken here to demonstrate increasingly complicated simulation scenarios, which included a singular fluid with uniform magnetic field case, a singular fluid with spatially varying magnetic field case, and a coupled multifluid case.

70 - PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Cybersecurity Platform and Certification Framework Development for Extreme Fast Charging (XFC)-Integrated Charging Ecosystem (Final Project Report)

This report summarizes a pioneering effort in Electric Vehicle charging infrastructure ecosystem cybersecurity requirements, assessment methodologies, functional verification, as well as embodiment of the key technologies in the form of hardware and software tools being made available to the public. EPRI led a team of experts, as well as a stakeholder coalition encompassing all key actors in the EV charging infrastructure ecosystem that includes eXtreme Fast Charging (XFC) equipment (defined as 200kW or above). EV charging infrastructure in the United States is a patchwork of networks that have continued to grow organically and have been designed to serve the charging needs of the EV owners, who are their customers. In doing so, each network provider, as well as their connected entities such as the cloud Electric Vehicle Service Providers or EVSPs, utility back office, utility AMI networks, payment networks, as well as Original Equipment Manufacturer (EV manufacturer) telematics networks, have designed systems that may work well individually, but no single entity is responsible for the entire ecosystem to be secure in terms of data exchange. Furthermore, there is no uniformity in how each actor has implemented the cybersecurity requirements since no system-wide cybersecurity requirements existed prior to this project. The final project report describes the technical approach guided by the EV charging infrastructure cybersecurity working group, convened specifically for this project. The technical approach included definition of requirements at the ecosystem level, treated as a ‘system of systems’, and then passed down to individual systems (EVSE, EV, cloud EVSP, utility, and the payment networks), followed by developing the cybersecurity risk and vulnerability assessment methods, that were later applied to real-world cyber-physical systems at EPRI, ANL, and NREL laboratories, to validate both the process and the results. Finally, in a spotlight over the most vulnerable equipment, which is the EV charge station (AC or DC), the team developed a multi-layer cybersecurity implementation in the embedded domain embodied by the open-source Secure Network Interface Card (SNIC) demonstrating the various ways in which the infrastructure can be secured protecting against the identified attack surfaces. Finally, the entire process of EV infrastructure cybersecurity assessment was encapsulated in the Electric Vehicle Charging Cybersecurity Management (EVC2M) online GUI-based tool, that is expected to be released to the public. The report presents the objectives, the technical approach, the key results, and recommendations for future work.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

PVDeg: Enhancing Usability and AI-Driven Multi-Mechanism Degradation Modeling

PVDeg version 0.7.0, released in December 2025, introduced major enhancements to improve usability and performance. This update reorganized tutorials and tool notebooks to create a more intuitive experience, enabling users to easily follow and adapt workflows for their specific analyses. In addition to structural improvements, both the notebooks and core logic underwent significant optimization for efficiency, robustness, and style. These refinements were supported by new testing frameworks built on nbval and pytest, adherence to PEP8 standards, and extensive code refactoring, which collectively simplify onboarding for new developers. Looking ahead, version 0.8.0 will deliver advanced AI-driven capabilities. The primary focus is to further develop and automate the degradation workflow, designed to analyze PV module degradation across diverse locations and system configurations. By integrating large language models (LLMs) to scan literature and compile a comprehensive database of materials and degradation rates, this feature will enable modeling of multiple materials and mechanisms within a single, streamlined workflow. Users will be able to evaluate degradation impacts on different system architectures under varying environmental conditions, facilitating informed decisions on bill-of-materials optimization for specific deployment scenarios. These advancements position PVDeg as a powerful, user-friendly tool for accelerating PV reliability research and system design.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Object Proxy Patterns for Accelerating Distributed Applications

Workflow and serverless frameworks have empowered new approaches to distributed application design by abstracting compute resources. However, their typically limited or one-size-fits-all support for advanced data flow patterns leaves optimization to the application programmer—optimization that becomes more difficult as data become larger. The transparent object proxy, which provides wide-area references that can resolve to data regardless of location, has been demonstrated as an effective low-level building block in such situations. Here we propose three high-level proxy-based programming patterns—distributed futures, streaming, and ownership—that make the power of the proxy pattern usable for more complex and dynamic distributed program structures. We motivate these patterns via careful review of application requirements and describe implementations of each pattern. As a result, we evaluate our implementations through a suite of benchmarks and by applying them in three meaningful scientific applications, in which we demonstrate substantial improvements in runtime, throughput, and memory usage.

Distributed Computing↗
DOE OSTI2025

Computational toolkit for predicting thickness of 2D materials using machine learning and autogenerated dataset by large language model

The thickness of 2D materials not only plays a crucial role in determining the performance of nanoelectronic and optoelectronic devices but also introduces complexities in predicting volume-dependent properties, such as energy storage capacity, due to the intrinsic vacuum within these materials. Although a plethora of experimental techniques, including but not limited to optical contrast, Raman spectroscopy, nonlinear optical spectroscopy, near-field optical imaging, and hyperspectral imaging, facilitate the measurement of 2D material thickness, comprehensive data for many materials remain elusive. Over the past decade, the exponential proliferation of 2D materials and their heterostructures has outstripped the capabilities of conventional experimental and computational approaches. In this evolving landscape, machine learning (ML) has emerged as an indispensable tool, offering a scalable approach to augment these traditional methodologies. Addressing the critical gap, we introduce THICK2D—Thickness Hierarchy Inference and Calculation Kit for 2D Materials. This Python-based computational framework harnesses an autogenerated thickness database, developed using large language models, and advanced ML algorithms to facilitate the rapid and scalable estimation of material thickness, relying solely on crystallographic data. To demonstrate the utility and robustness of THICK2D, we successfully used the toolkit to predict the thickness of more than 8000 2D-based materials, sourced from two extensive 2D materials databases. THICK2D is disseminated as an open-source utility, accessible on GitHub at https://github.com/gmp007/THICK2D, and archived on Zenodo at https://10.5281/zenodo.11216648.

Ekuma, Chinedu E. (ORCID:0000000258527556)↗
DOE OSTI2025

AI for Earthquake Physics

The core LANL program sponsored by Office of Science, Basic Energy Science, Chemical Sciences, Geosciences, and Biosciences (DOE-BES-CSGB) and led by PI Johnson aims to research earthquake faults to advance fault physics and earthquake hazards. All work completed is required to be made publicly available through publications and open-source codes supporting the published results. All routines are/will-be written in open source python and applied to publicly available data sets. These routines will format data from input into models, develop and test modeling frameworks for the problems addressed, and produce figures applicable to peer-reviewed manuscripts. All work is reviewed for Los Alamos Unlimited Release before submitting to a journal. This summary encompasses recently completed work and work to be complete for the duration of the program.

Johnson, Christopher↗
DOE OSTI2023

Toward a Smart Metaverse City: Immersive Realism and 3D Visualization of Digital Twin Cities

Metaverse and its related extended reality technologies can enable immersive, realistic, and participatory visualization of 3D data, and their use and the potential within a smart city can be effective for supporting urban research and urban operations management. This book chapter describes a vision for prototyping a “Smart Metaverse City” to combine the unique advantage of the Metaverse technology with the two-way connectivity of a digital twin city application. This synergy aims to create a virtual environment for immersive geovisualization to help researchers and the public understand the complex urban system through science-based and data-driven approaches. This book chapter selectively reviews past technological and paradigm advancements for collecting, analyzing, and visualizing 3D urban big data. Then we present a prototyping Geographic Information System (GIS) framework, together with some relevant data sources and open-source web technologies, to help researchers create a smart Metaverse city. We demonstrate our vision and discuss its application opportunities through a real-world example, a digital twin city developed at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, to facilitate participatory, smart, and sustainable campus management.

Xu, Haowen↗
DOE OSTI2023

PipeSight: A High-Performance Computing Platform for Pipeline Integrity Management

The Phase I feasibility study completed as part of this project has led to a number of innovative technologies being developed and has laid the foundation for a successful Phase II effort to commercialize a platform for managing the integrity of pipelines for the damage mechanisms of the new, hybrid-energy based economy. To ground the development efforts and direction of the project, an extensive market research and customer discovery effort was undertaken early in Phase I. Through this effort, a number of pipeline owners and operators were interviewed, and the following key findings were discovered about the pipeline industry: • Small pipeline operators do not have the central engineering groups necessary to perform their own independent analysis of inspection data, but instead rely on summarized tally sheets provided to them by inspection service providers. • The time it takes to go from an inspection to a completed engineering assessment, even for small segments of pipeline, can take anywhere from 30-120 days. During this delay, critical threats can (and have been known to) cause failures. • Uncertainty is often not accounted for in the assessment of pipeline integrity. The tally sheets provided by third-party service providers are almost always deterministic in nature, identifying threats that present a concern only to the current (not the future) integrity of the pipeline. • It is uncommon to apply the latest technologies to perform advanced assessments of damaged pipelines. There is a desire to use more advanced analysis capabilities to assess threats. Many pipeline operators indicated that they would often excavate a pipeline to perform an inspection and find that the damage was not as bad as they anticipated, thus using limited resources unnecessarily. Companies are not consistent in their use of inspection data to determine corrosion rates, and those that do only calculate deterministic corrosion rates. • The industry has prominently relied on time-based inspections but has recently started to transition to risk-based inspections. However, there appears to be no uniform guidance on how to do so while properly accounting for all sources of uncertainty. • Companies are not storing inspection data in a manner that allows for the ready determination of temporal trends. • Predictive maintenance principles and practices are beginning to be used by early adopters • Some pipelines are being re-purposed to transport different process fluids than they were designed for, e.g., H 2 and CO 2 rich process streams to serve the new hybrid-energy based economy, which are presenting new integrity concerns for the existing pipeline network that crisscrosses the United States. As a result of these discoveries, we were able to target the development efforts in Phase I to best serve the needs of the industry. In Phase I, we developed a way to correlate multiple large-scale scans of the pipeline to determine a probabilistic corrosion rate that accounts for all sources of error and uncertainty in the inspection process. This probabilistic corrosion rate can be used to predict the future thickness distribution of the pipe wall. We demonstrate how this analysis may be performed in an analytical fashion and has been implemented in such a manner that it can be readily distributed using GPU computing through integration of the Kokkos programming model. We also make a very novel extension of the analytical corrosion rate model to Bayesian Networks (an explainable AI technique) that can account for non-parametric distributions of corrosion rates. With the predictions made above for the probabilistic corrosion rate and corresponding future distribution of the pipe wall thickness, we can assess the integrity of the pipeline through the use of a probabilistic engineering assessment. We developed a novel screening data analysis approach that can rapidly identify ‘hotspots’ (local thin areas) where the integrity of the pipeline is a concern. Once more, we implemented this screening approach in C++ to leverage GPU computing via the Kokkos programming model. After the critical hotspots are identified, we developed a program that can automatically generate an advanced finite element model of the damaged regions. Since the number of damaged regions that require advanced analysis can number in the thousands, we integrated an open-source container-native workflow engine for orchestrating parallel jobs on the cloud. Initially, these advanced numerical models were only designed to account for loading due to internal pressure. However, in a slight pivot from the initial Phase I proposal, we developed a complete pipe stress analysis program (called Simflex) which can simulate the complete pipeline and its response to thermal expansion, pressure, thermal bowing, weight, wind, earthquake, support displacement, support friction and external forces. This pipe stress analysis program was written generically, to handle any piping system, but contains the features needed to model long pipelines (i.e., it incorporates a model for soil mechanics and can account for the nonlinear boundary conditions necessary to simulate long underground pipelines). This pipe stress analysis program can simulate any segment of the pipeline (simple or complex) under any set of conditions and loads, to determine the supplemental loads (axial forces and bending moments) at the location of damage. This enables the most accurate state of stress to be accounted for in the pipeline, which can prove critical when evaluating the integrity of a damaged region. In the process of developing the technologies to perform the integrity assessment of the pipeline, we also extended one of the industry standard approaches for performing the assessment of local thin areas that extend more in the circumferential direction than the longitudinal direction of the pipeline. This approach was presented to the API 579-1/AS ME FFS-1 steering committee in November 2021 for consideration in the next edition of the industry standard for Fitness-For-Service (expected to be released in 2023). To help pipeline operators make decisions with the results on any integrity assessment, we developed a new approach to the life-cycle management of pipelines which uses a Bayesian Decision Network. The network is designed to help pipeline operators plan and prioritize inspection activities and ultimately make smarter, more cost-effective decisions. The Bayesian approach accounts for all sources of uncertainty and carries them through to the final optimal decisions, providing a probabilistic framework for optimizing inspection intervals. The proof-of-concept networks developed in the feasibility study are complete, verified, and are focused on a subset of the pipeline. To expand this novel approach to the scale necessary for an entire network of pipelines in Phase II, we will leverage the DOE-funded Bengi solver for industrial-scale decision making with Bayesian Networks [22]. Once implemented, we will be able to provide the pipeline industry with a much-needed tool for optimal inspection planning using truly explainable artificial intelligence (XAI). To handle all of these advanced capabilities into a cloud-based platform, the architecture of the Equity Engineering Cloud (EEC) was extended to include Argo Workflows, a framework capable of distributing and managing a massive number of jobs that consume their own resources, such that thousands of serial finite element simulations can be run in parallel. As part of this substantial undertaking, we also integrated Argo Continuous Delivery (CD) into the EEC, to aid with the rapid prototyping and iterations that will be imperative to the success of the PipeSight platform’s Agile development process in Phase II. As part of the pipe stress analysis program, we also developed a custom visualizer that leverages the DOE-funded VTK visualization library. We added custom contouring capabilities and a means for interacting visually with both the inputs and outputs of the pipe stress analysis program. We also developed routines for automating the post-processing of the finite element simulations to determine if any failure criteria are met and to visualize the deformations, stresses and strains in ParaView using the exodus II file format (a subset of netCDF).

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

From Modular ADMS to Plug-and-Play Ops: Distribution Grid Operations with Platform-Level Orchestration to Enable Ambitious App Hosting

The core function of the distribution grid is to provide electricity to consumers affordably, reliably, and securely. In pursuing these core objectives, distribution utilities are accountable to customers, regulators, and in some cases, shareholders. Other third parties such as aggregators and microgrids can also have a stake in the smooth operation of the grid. Each of these stakeholders has economic, business, and/or governance objectives that inform their expectations of the distribution grid. This multi-objective, multi-stakeholder environment creates tension that must be reconciled to successfully design and operate the distribution grid. Innovative companies are competing to bring high-tech solutions to electric utilities and their customers that address each of these objectives. Many developers of advanced distribution management systems (ADMS) and distributed energy resource management systems (DERMS) have adopted a modular architecture that allows grid operators to select functions and features according to their individual system needs. A modular platform also allows the solution provider to develop and integrate specific new product modules; however, the need to pursue multiple objectives with a fixed set of controllable devices makes integration expensive whether it is done at the product development stage or the deployment stage. This cost creates a significant barrier to adoption and can lengthen the product to market time of new solutions. To fundamentally address the complexity of system integration for distribution grid operations, the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Electricity has funded the GridAPPS-D project at PNNL, which streamlines integration by contributing to standards development, defining system architecture, applying advanced mathematics, and developing open-source software to demonstrate the concept of an open data-integration platform for distribution operations. The open data-integration platform concept enables system operators and solution providers to deploy ambitious, best-of-breed applications (or apps) without continually reengineering for integration. Ambitious apps developed by different solution providers will inevitably attempt to achieve different control objectives with the same set of controllable devices. If the open platform itself can resolve these conflicts in a way that achieves the best available outcomes for all apps, doesn’t restrict the ambitious design of apps, and ensures safe and secure operations, apps will be able to plug-and-play with the platform at the same time as other ambitious apps. In this paper, we describe a framework called App Deconfliction that empowers a platform to assign setpoints to controllable devices based on the values preferred by different apps (and even external stakeholder entities like customers or aggregators). The App Deconfliction framework is compatible with several methods for determining setpoint values. We present two methods based on game theory that provide a subtle built-in incentive structure for developers to adapt their apps to the fact that they will be operating in a moderated multi-app environment and to favor device setpoints that have the most effect on their objectives over those that have the least effect. Our simulation-based demonstrations have shown that game-theory-based deconfliction can lead to a 7% improvement in control space utilization compared to design-based methods.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations

Background: Short-term forecasts of infectious disease burden can contribute to situational awareness and aid capacity planning. Based on best practice in other fields and recent insights in infectious disease epidemiology, one can maximise the predictive performance of such forecasts if multiple models are combined into an ensemble. Here, we report on the performance of ensembles in predicting COVID-19 cases and deaths across Europe between 08 March 2021 and 07 March 2022. Methods: We used open-source tools to develop a public European COVID-19 Forecast Hub. We invited groups globally to contribute weekly forecasts for COVID-19 cases and deaths reported by a standardised source for 32 countries over the next 1–4 weeks. Teams submitted forecasts from March 2021 using standardised quantiles of the predictive distribution. Each week we created an ensemble forecast, where each predictive quantile was calculated as the equally-weighted average (initially the mean and then from 26th July the median) of all individual models’ predictive quantiles. We measured the performance of each model using the relative Weighted Interval Score (WIS), comparing models’ forecast accuracy relative to all other models. We retrospectively explored alternative methods for ensemble forecasts, including weighted averages based on models’ past predictive performance. Results: Over 52 weeks, we collected forecasts from 48 unique models. We evaluated 29 models’ forecast scores in comparison to the ensemble model. We found a weekly ensemble had a consistently strong performance across countries over time. Across all horizons and locations, the ensemble performed better on relative WIS than 83% of participating models’ forecasts of incident cases (with a total N=886 predictions from 23 unique models), and 91% of participating models’ forecasts of deaths (N=763 predictions from 20 models). Across a 1–4 week time horizon, ensemble performance declined with longer forecast periods when forecasting cases, but remained stable over 4 weeks for incident death forecasts. In every forecast across 32 countries, the ensemble outperformed most contributing models when forecasting either cases or deaths, frequently outperforming all of its individual component models. Among several choices of ensemble methods we found that the most influential and best choice was to use a median average of models instead of using the mean, regardless of methods of weighting component forecast models. Conclusions: Our results support the use of combining forecasts from individual models into an ensemble in order to improve predictive performance across epidemiological targets and populations during infectious disease epidemics. Our findings further suggest that median ensemble methods yield better predictive performance more than ones based on means. Our findings also highlight that forecast consumers should place more weight on incident death forecasts than incident case forecasts at forecast horizons greater than 2 weeks. Funding: AA, BH, BL, LWa, MMa, PP, SV funded by National Institutes of Health (NIH) Grant 1R01GM109718, NSF BIG DATA Grant IIS-1633028, NSF Grant No.: OAC-1916805, NSF Expeditions in Computing Grant CCF-1918656, CCF-1917819, NSF RAPID CNS-2028004, NSF RAPID OAC-2027541, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 75D30119C05935, a grant from Google, University of Virginia Strategic Investment Fund award number SIF160, Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) under Contract No. HDTRA1-19-D-0007, and respectively Virginia Dept of Health Grant VDH-21-501-0141, VDH-21-501-0143, VDH-21-501-0147, VDH-21-501-0145, VDH-21-501-0146, VDH-21-501-0142, VDH-21-501-0148. AF, AMa, GL funded by SMIGE - Modelli statistici inferenziali per governare l'epidemia, FISR 2020-Covid-19 I Fase, FISR2020IP-00156, Codice Progetto: PRJ-0695. AM, BK, FD, FR, JK, JN, JZ, KN, MG, MR, MS, RB funded by Ministry of Science and Higher Education of Poland with grant 28/WFSN/2021 to the University of Warsaw. BRe, CPe, JLAz funded by Ministerio de Sanidad/ISCIII. BT, PG funded by PERISCOPE European H2020 project, contract number 101016233. CP, DL, EA, MC, SA funded by European Commission - Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology through the contract LC-01485746, and Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovacion y Universidades and FEDER, with the project PGC2018-095456-B-I00. DE., MGu funded by Spanish Ministry of Health / REACT-UE (FEDER). DO, GF, IMi, LC funded by Laboratory Directed Research and Development program of Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) under project number 20200700ER. DS, ELR, GG, NGR, NW, YW funded by National Institutes of General Medical Sciences (R35GM119582; the content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of NIGMS or the National Institutes of Health). FB, FP funded by InPresa, Lombardy Region, Italy. HG, KS funded by European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. IV funded by Agencia de Qualitat i Avaluacio Sanitaries de Catalunya (AQuAS) through contract 2021-021OE. JDe, SMo, VP funded by Netzwerk Universitatsmedizin (NUM) project egePan (01KX2021). JPB, SH, TH funded by Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF; grant 05M18SIA). KH, MSc, YKh funded by Project SaxoCOV, funded by the German Free State of Saxony. Presentation of data, model results and simulations also funded by the NFDI4Health Task Force COVID-19 ( https://www.nfdi4health.de/task-force-covid-19-2 ) within the framework of a DFG-project (LO-342/17-1). LP, VE funded by Mathematical and Statistical modelling project (MUNI/A/1615/2020), Online platform for real-time monitoring, analysis and management of epidemic situations (MUNI/11/02202001/2020); VE also supported by RECETOX research infrastructure (Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of the Czech Republic: LM2018121), the CETOCOEN EXCELLENCE (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/17-043/0009632), RECETOX RI project (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16-013/0001761). NIB funded by Health Protection Research Unit (grant code NIHR200908). SAb, SF funded by Wellcome Trust (210758/Z/18/Z).

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗