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NASA NTRS2019

The Multi-Mission Earth Entry Vehicle for Sample Return Missions – Past, Present, and Future

The Multi-Mission Earth Entry Vehicle (MMEEV) is an enabling technology developed at NASA’s Langley Research Center (LaRC) over the last two decades for returning samples to Earth across a wide array of space science missions. Currently, the MMEEV is being considered for NASA’s Mars Sample Return (MSR) mission. The original vehicle concept, the Earth Entry Vehicle (EEV), was innovated at LaRC in 1998 as a robust solution to return Mars soil samples to Earth under stringent backward contamination requirements. These backward contamination requirements drove the EEV to have higher reliability than any capsule previously designed for a return-to-Earth sample return mission. The EEV achieved this high reliability by employing a passive (no active systems) vehicle architecture optimized for fault tolerance in a compact, low-mass configuration that is extensible to virtually any sample return mission. The original EEV concept utilized a carbon-carbon primary structure with high-density carbon phenolic thermal protection system. The capsule had a 60-degree sphere-cone forebody and a backshell geometry uniquely tailored to produce aerodynamics that would passively re-orient the vehicle if it entered the atmosphere with an off-nominal attitude. Contrary to every other sample return capsule conceived at the time, the EEV was designed to land without a parachute. The vehicle incorporated an integral energy-absorbing crushable structure that protected the Mars sample for landings on surfaces ranging from soft soil to solid concrete. This paper describes 20 years of technological advancements LaRC has incorporated into the EEV architecture to evolve it from the original, MSR-enabling vehicle, to a true multi-mission capability relevant to any sample return mission. The vehicle’s unique Integrated Composite Stiffener Structure (ICoSS) has been optimized for specific strength - supporting high-G atmospheric entries with steep entry angles that produce precise landing footprints on the ground. The vehicle geometry has been refined through wind tunnel testing and computational fluid dynamics simulations to improve the vehicle’s aerodynamic stability and robustness to off-nominal conditions from hypersonic to subsonic flight. The resulting configuration of the current MMEEV architecture is described, with details provided on its sample carrying capacity and atmospheric entry trajectory capabilities. The upgraded vehicle performance is mapped into current space science objectives, showing how the MMEEV supports future sample return missions and continues to be an enabling technology for NASA’s vision to return samples from Mars.

J M Corliss↗

NASA NTRS2020

Parametric Cost Estimates of Four 20 Ton Payload Mars EDL Vehicle Concepts

Cost is one of the biggest obstacles to sending humans to Mars. Many studies have examined various vehicles and/or technologies which could be used to send humans to Mars. However, nearly all of these studies have either ignored cost or have used the mass of the vehicles as a surrogate for cost. This work presents parametric cost estimates of four Mars Entry, Descent, and Landing vehicle concepts capable of landing 20 tons of payload on the surface of Mars. The concepts are the Co-Optimization Blunt-body Re-entry Analysis-Mid lift to drag ratio Rigid Vehicle (Cobra–MRV), Adaptive Deployable Entry and Placement Technology (ADEPT), Hypersonic Inflatable Aerodynamic Decelerator (HIAD), and Capsule concepts. Two variants of the HIAD concept are studied, one with a single HIAD heatshield and one with two HIADs. The study presents the development and production cost of each vehicle and the total cost to build five flight units and fifteen flight units. Five flight units is representative of a single mission, or a "Flags and Footprints" style campaign, whereas fifteen flight units is representative of multiple missions going to multiple sites on Mars. All costs presented in this work are normalized to the average of the first unit production cost of the lander concepts. There is a large amount of uncertainty both in the design of the vehicles and the cost of the vehicles and it is impossible to claim with certainty which vehicle will cost the least. However, it is likely that the total cost to produce five flight units will be in the following ranking from least costly to most costly, Single HIAD, Capsule, Dual HIAD, Cobra, ADEPT. The ranking for fifteen units is similar but with the positions of the Dual HIAD and Cobra reversed. This study only considers the cost of the entry vehicle and does not take into account the effect of the entry vehicle’s mass on the cost of the in-space propulsion stage or launch vehicle.

Paul D Friz↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Development of Urban Air Mobility (UAM) Vehicles for Ease of Operation

To date the air transportation system has been developed with the in-cremental introduction of new technology and with highly experienced air transport pilots and air traffic controllers overseeing flight operations. Thus, we currently have one of the safest commercial aviation systems in the world. General Aviation (GA) in the United States, however, has not always followed the same cautious and monitored approach to implementation; consequently, the GA safety record does not meet the high standards of commercial aviation. Recently, a new system known as Urban Air Mobility (UAM), is attracting considerable interest and investment from industry and government agencies. UAM refers to a system of passenger and small-cargo air transportation vehicles within an urban area with the goal of reducing the number of times we need to use our cars, thus improving urban traffic by moving people and cargo from crowded single pas-senger vehicles on our roads to personal and on-demand air vehicles. These UAM vehicles will be small and based on electric, Vertical-Take-Off-and-Landing (eV-TOL) systems. A significant component of UAM is offloading of flight-man-agement responsibilities from human pilots to newly-developed autonomy. Cur-rently, over 100 UAM vehicles are either in development or production. Most, if not all, have a goal of fully autonomous vehicle operations, but fully autonomous flying vehicles are not expected in the near future. Therefore, we are de-veloping concepts for UAM vehicles that will be easy to fly and/or manage by operators with minimal pilot training. In this paper we will discuss our human-automation teaming approach to develop an easy-to-operate VTOL aircraft, and some of the fly-by-wire technology needed to stabilize the vehicle so that a sim-ple ecological mental model of the flying task can be implemented. We will discuss the requirements for a stability augmentation system that must be developed to support our simple pilot input model, and also present design guidelines and requirements based on a pilot input and management model. Finally, our ap-proach to vehicle development will involve considerable operator testing and evaluation: improving pilot model, inceptors, displays and also work on a plan for how a UAM vehicle can be integrated with terminal area air traffic control airspace with minimal impact on controller workload.

UAM↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A HIRF-Map Certification Approach for UAM, AAM, and UAS Vehicles

Advanced Air Mobility (AAM), Urban Air Mobility (UAM), and Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) vehicles will fly in airspace similar to Transport Category Rotorcraft, requiring them to meet stringent requirements for High-Intensity Radiated Fields (HIRF) certification. The environment is notably severe, particularly compared to fixed-wing aircraft, due to operations at lower altitudes. This potentially exposes the vehicles to high-power transmitters on the ground, leading to significant challenges. High-level HIRF exposure can result in avionic system upsets, interference, and undesirable effects. Shielding and circuit protection against HIRF pose significant barriers concerning size, weight, and cost, especially for emerging electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) and electric short take-off and landing (eSTOL) vehicles. This paper proposes a novel HIRF protection approach, aiming to reduce costs by certifying vehicles to a "vehicle tolerance level" lower than that required for Transport Category Rotorcraft. The remaining protection is achieved by maintaining a safe distance from known HIRF sources. This distance is calculated based on the vehicle's tolerance level and transmitter characteristics, such as transmit power, antenna beamwidth, and direction. Tailored flight maps are developed to identify transmitters and avoidance zones within an operating area or along a flight path, enabling restricted vehicle operations. Vehicles with higher tolerance levels could have smaller HIRF avoidance zones, allowing them to operate closer to transmitters. Transmitter data are sourced from government databases, such as those of the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). A map tool is developed using Matlab to calculate and visualize HIRF avoidance zones based on available databases. The tool determines stand-off distances based on input vehicle tolerance levels, displaying results on various base maps depicting HIRF-restricted areas. Illustrations cover various FCC transmitters, including AM/FM/TV transmitters, satellite earth stations, and NOAA weather radars. The HIRF zones of smaller transmitters, such as land-mobile radios, pagers, microwave links, and cellular towers, are also illustrated. An example of flight planning around transmitters is provided. For now, airports and government-owned lands are excluded due to limited access to sensitive transmitter data. Despite this approach, a minimum HIRF tolerance level for vehicles may still be necessary to cover mobile devices, cellular base stations, transmitters on other AAM vehicles, and other small power devices not included in the FCC databases. The paper discusses findings and areas for improving existing databases and suggests an approach for better access to sanitized data in more restricted government databases. This method significantly deviates from the standard approach and introduces slightly higher flight-planning complexity. However, the potential cost savings are considerable. Future AAM/UAM/UAS aeronautical charts could potentially incorporate these new HIRF avoidance zones. Keywords—HIRF; Map; AAM; UAM; UAS; Advanced Air Mobility; Urban Air Mobility; Unmanned Aerial Systems; Certification.

HIRF↗

DOE OSTI2021

Method of controlling a vehicle to adjust perception system energy usage

A method of controlling a vehicle includes determining a current operating situation of the vehicle, and identifying a subset of a plurality of sensors of the vehicle needed to provide data to enable a vehicle control function for the current operating situation of the vehicle. A remainder of the plurality of sensors is disengaged to reduce electric energy usage by the vehicle while the vehicle is operating in the current operating situation of the vehicle. A sampling rate for the selected subset of sensors may be reduced to further reduce energy usage of the vehicle. Additionally, an energy reduction processing strategy may be implemented to reduce a processor frequency or a voltage of a computing device used to provide the vehicle control function to further reduce energy usage of the vehicle.

Hu, Yuxiao↗

DOE OSTI2020

The role of infrastructure to enable and support electric drive vehicles: A Transportation Research Part D Special Issue

Widespread vehicle electrification appears to be necessary to achieve timely and deep reductions in greenhouse gases (GHG) and pollutant emissions as well as petroleum use in the transportation sector. The lack of a sufficient refuelling infrastructure has defeated many past efforts to promote alternatives to petroleum fuels. The papers in this special issue on the “Role of Infrastructure to Enable and Support Electric Drive Vehicles” address the diverse challenges posed by a transition from fossil-fuelled internal combustion engine vehicles to vehicles powered by electric motors and the special role of refuelling/recharging infrastructure in this transition. Electric drive vehicles are herein considered to be plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs), including plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), battery electric vehicles (BEVs), and hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs). BEVs and FCEVs are also known as Zero Emission Vehicles (ZEVs) because their propulsion systems produce no tailpipe emissions.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2021

An Overview of Argonne’s Advanced Mobility Technology Laboratory Vehicle Systems Instrumentation and Evaluation Methodology

This report will provide a general overview of the testing facilities, research equipment, and general testing methodologies Argonne utilizes to conduct vehicle technology evaluations of advanced technology research vehicles. Data is captured from vehicle evaluations that provide powertrain operation and corresponding energy consumption based on a combination of in-depth instrumentation and focused testing. This resulting dataset of hundreds of time-resolved vehicle signals provide a basis for direct analysis and model validation of vehicle specific technologies. Argonne has attempted to standardize the approach to vehicle instrumentation and testing at Argonne, but it should be noted that each vehicle, and the corresponding assessment, remains unique. It is suggested that the reader reference vehicle specific testing reports for an overview of the unique aspects for each test vehicle. Additionally, the datasets for research vehicles are made publicly available through the Advanced Mobility Technology Laboratory’s Downloadable Driving Database (D3) at www.anl.gov/d3.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Vehicle Residual Value Analysis by Powertrain Type and Impacts on Total Cost of Ownership

Vehicle depreciation is a key factor in determining the total cost of vehicle ownership and consumer purchase behavior. This report examines how light-duty-vehicle residual values have evolved over time for conventional and advanced vehicle technologies, accounting for important factors such as market segment, size class, and country of assembly. Although plug-in vehicles have historically depreciated faster than conventional vehicles, advancements in electric vehicle technology have led to plug-in vehicles exhibiting depreciation curves similar to those of conventional vehicles. This report compares two methods for determining depreciation trends (snapshot method and time-series method) in order to identify potential impacts on calculating vehicle total cost of ownership given differing data availability.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Electric Vehicle Managed Charging: Forward-Looking Estimates of Bulk Power System Value

When and where electric vehicle charging occurs has significant implications for power systems supporting widespread electric vehicle deployment with high shares of wind and solar generation. Numerous studies have estimated the value of scheduling or otherwise managing electric vehicle charging in such power systems. This study improves on those earlier works by leveraging detailed simulation models for electric vehicle adoption, electric vehicle use, electric vehicle charging, and bulk power system operations; and linking them with methods for describing charging flexibility at both the individual vehicle and aggregate levels. This study closely analyzes electric vehicle managed charging (EVMC) performance along the dimensions of flexibility type (within-charging session or within-week scheduling), dispatch mechanism (direct load control or one of several price-based mechanisms), and participation rate, under the assumptions of ubiquitous chargers and all trips completed on time. The study is located in a passenger light-duty vehicle adoption scenario with 100% electric vehicle sales by 2035, and in an envisioned 2038 New England power system for which within-region generation is 84% clean.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Understanding the Effects of Vehicle Platoons on Crash Type and Severity

Crash type is an informative indicator to infer driving behaviors and conditions that cause a crash. For example, rear-end and side-swipe crashes are typically caused by improper vehicle interaction such as sudden lane-changing or speed control while hit-object crashes are likely the result of a single driver’s mistake. This study investigated the impact of vehicles travelling as a group (platoon) and its configuration (i.e., types of vehicles consisting of the platoon) on crash type and severity since the vehicles could affect each other when travelling in close proximity. This study applied Generalized Structure Equation Modeling (GSEM) to capture the complex relationships among the various crash factors such as traffic condition, driver characteristics, environmental conditions, and vehicle interaction to the crash attributes including type and severity. This study collected over 3 million individual vehicle data from 39 traffic count sites in California to estimate the vehicle interactions and driving behaviors. The microscopic traffic data are matched to 1417 crash reports. Results showed that vehicles traveling in platoons are associated with more rear-end and side-swipe crashes. Speed difference in the platoon had a positive effect on hit-object crashes if the platoon comprises vehicles of homogeneous type – either trucks or non-trucks. In addition, human factors such as age and gender were identified as significant influential factors in all type of crashes, however truck involvement particularly played an important role amongst side-swipe crashes. Crash severity was negatively affected by total flow, and rear-end crashes were more likely to be severe compared with hit-object crashes. Based on findings, this study suggests practical operational strategies to reduce traffic instability associated with platooned vehicle patterns. Understanding the high-risk factors for different crash types and severities would provide valuable insights for decision-makers and transportation engineers to develop targeted intervention strategies in consideration of road users and traffic conditions such as fleet mix and speed.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Material efficiency and climate change mitigation of passenger vehicles

A transition to electric vehicles and renewable energy is currently underway but may not be rapid enough in order to reach ambitious climate change mitigation targets. Therefore, additional, preferably instantaneous, measures are needed for quick emissions reductions, which is where material efficiency (ME) could constitute a promising solution. ME strategies include but are not limited to vehicle lightweighting through material substitution, increased recycling of materials, reuse and remanufacturing of vehicle components, vehicle downsizing (switching to a smaller vehicle) and more intensive use by means of increased vehicle occupancy through sharing practices. While recent analyses have focused on a narrow subset of these, we find striking differences in the overall potential of different strategies to decrease vehicular carbon footprints. Downsizing and more intensive use offer the largest mitigation potential but strongly depend on consumer behavior and are highly sensitive to modeling assumptions. Combined, the analyzed strategies can achieve emission reductions of up to 57% over the life cycle of a single vehicle, which is comparable to up to 83% achieved through a shift to low-carbon energy supply. ME can cut carbon footprints of already efficient vehicles charging renewable electricity by half again. This makes ME both an excellent short-term solution for climate change mitigation targeting the light vehicle sector but also an important complementary strategy to the long-term transition towards electric vehicles and renewable energy supply.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Inefficacy of mallard flight responses to approaching vehicles

Vehicle collisions with birds are financially costly and dangerous to humans and animals. To reduce collisions, it is necessary to understand how birds respond to approaching vehicles. We used simulated (i.e., animals exposed to video playback) and real vehicle approaches with mallards (Anas platyrynchos) to quantify flight behavior and probability of collision under different vehicle speeds and times of day (day vs. night). Birds exposed to simulated nighttime approaches exhibited reduced probability of attempting escape, but when escape was attempted, fled with more time before collision compared to birds exposed to simulated daytime approaches. The lower probability of flight may indicate that the visual stimulus of vehicle approaches at night (i.e., looming headlights) is perceived as less threatening than when the full vehicle is more visible during the day; alternatively, the mallard visual system might be incompatible with vehicle lighting in dark settings. Mallards approached by a real vehicle exhibited a delayed margin of safety (both flight initiation distance and time before collision decreased with speed); they are the first bird species found to exhibit this response to vehicle approach. Our findings suggest mallards are poorly equipped to adequately respond to fast-moving vehicles and demonstrate the need for continued research into methods promoting effective avian avoidance behaviors.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Novel Tilting Ducted-Fan Aerial Vehicle Configurations

There has been recent renewed interested in ducted-fan, powered-lift vertical takeoff and landing aircraft vehicles for uninhabited aerial vehicle and urban aerial mobility aerial applications. Early work was conducted in the 1950’s to the late 1980’s into ducted-fan vehicles, especially at the time for military missions. The focus of ducted-fan research began to shift to UAV’s and personal air transportation in the 2000’s. Work in the early 2000’s fostered interest into ducted-fan aerial vehicles for vertical lift planetary aerial vehicle missions, especially for missions to Titan, a moon of Saturn. For example, early work at NASA Ames conducted the first known investigation into oval ducts (with internal tandem fans) to be used for these aerial vehicles. The use of twin oval ducts (with internal tandem fans) allowed the use of quadrotor-style rotor rpm control for vehicle trim (in hover, for transition to high-speed forward flight the addition of a tilt-actuator to pitch the twin oval ducts forward to be aligned with the freestream needed to be added to the control approach. This current study explores open-rotor, single isolated ducted-fan, and full vehicle configuration aerodynamic performance for hover, transition, and cruise regimes for novel tilting ducted-fan aerial vehicle configurations. The objective of this study is to better understand the design aerodynamics trade space for noncircular tilting ducted-fans. The primary analysis tool used in this paper is the mid-fidelity computational fluid dynamics RotCFD tool. Several interesting and largely unexplored rotor-on-rotor (or fan-on-fan), duct-on-rotor, rotor- on-duct, and duct-on-airframe are examined in this paper. Many of these aerodynamic interactions are the key to overall aerial vehicle performance. Limited parametric sweeps of rotor-to-rotor spacing (and, therefore, sizing and shape of the enveloping ducts) for the various duct configurations will also be performed. The trade-offs between duct thrust augmentation in hover versus improved transition controllability versus improved cruise L/D will be discussed for various novel duct configurations. These ducted-fan configurations include oval ducts, ‘figure-eight’ ducts, and ‘B-shaped’ ducts, among others.

Ducted-Fan↗

DOE OSTI2022

Decarbonizing Medium & Heavy-Duty On-Road Vehicles

We analyze the decarbonization potential of medium and heavy-duty vehicles (MHDVs) across multiple vehicle classes and market segments. We evaluate the timeframe in which zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) could achieve cost parity with conventional diesel vehicles and the implications for energy and emissions. Our results show that ZEVs can achieve cost parity with conventional vehicles by 2035 across the majority of vehicle classes and market segments. Emissions reductions range from 27% to 77% by 2050 relative to 2019 across multiple fuel cost and technology progress sensitivities. Multiple technology pathways are viable for decarbonization, including battery-electric vehicles and hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles. This presentation is based on previous work published by NREL: Ledna, C., Muratori, M., Yip, A., Jadun, P., and Hoehne, C. 2022. Decarbonizing Medium & Heavy-Duty On-Road Vehicles: Zero-Emission Vehicles Cost Analysis. National Renewable Energy Laboratory, https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy22osti/82081.pdf.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Electric Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicle Charging Infrastructure Attributes and Development

Although more established for light-duty vehicles (LDVs), advancements in electric vehicle (EV) charging technology are being made in the medium- and heavy-duty (MD/HD) sector. Progress is also being made with the electrification of MD/HD vehicles, including transit buses, school buses, MD trucks, and HD trucks. The diverse set of operational requirements and duty cycles for each vocation, as well as the range in the size of fleets, present unique charging and infrastructure requirements. This report focuses on charging requirements for MD/HD vehicles and synergies with LDV infrastructure. This analysis leans toward the qualitative rather than quantitative because relevant model inputs are in development and will not be established for a few years, as EV deployments are more mature in the LDV sectors than MD/HD. The report begins with an overview of MD/HD vehicle classes and types of charging, including depot and residential charging, among others (Section 2). Section 3 analyzes the home bases (overnight dwell locations) of existing MD/HD vehicles, with an emphasis on depot and residential home bases, and discusses implications for charging infrastructure. Section 4 discusses the key characteristics for determining if, when, and where MD/HD vehicles can leverage LDV charging infrastructure rather than requiring dedicated chargers. These considerations include electricity demand, connectors, physical space requirements, payment considerations, and impacts on the grid. Section 5 summarizes shared characteristics for MD/HD vehicles that are appropriate for near-term electrification and includes a summary of the outlook of the electric MD/HD vehicle market. The conclusion (Section 6) summarizes the report's findings and outlines areas for future research.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Demonstration of Ego Vehicle and System Level Benefits of Eco-Driving on Chassis Dynamometer

Eco-Driving with connected and automated vehicles has shown potential to reduce energy consumption of an individual (i.e., ego) vehicle by up to 15%. In a project funded by ARPA-E, a team led by Southwest Research Institute demonstrated an 8-12% reduction in energy consumption on a 2017 Prius Prime. This was demonstrated in simulation as well as chassis dynamometer testing. The authors presented a simulation study that demonstrated corridor-level energy consumption improvements by about 15%. This study was performed by modeling a six-kilometer-long urban corridor in Columbus, Ohio for traffic simulations. Five powertrain models consisting of two battery electric vehicles (BEVs), a hybrid electric vehicle (HEV), and two internal combustion engine (ICE) powered vehicles were developed. The design of experiment consisted of sweeps for various levels of traffic, penetration of smart vehicles, penetration of technology, and powertrain electrification. The large-scale simulation study consisted of doing approximately 96,000 powertrain simulations. A sophisticated clustering scheme was built and utilized to down select representative traces for each scenario from the simulation study for vehicle testing on a chassis dynamometer. Furthermore, this paper provides a summary of individual ego vehicle testing as well as a comprehensive overview of the method utilized for down selecting representative traces from large scale simulation studies that can be used to quantify corridor level benefits. Vehicle test results along with corresponding analyses are presented.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Calibrating Microscopic Car-Following Models for Adaptive Cruise Control Vehicles: Multiobjective Approach

Adaptive cruise control (ACC) vehicles are the first step toward comprehensive vehicle automation. However, the impacts of such vehicles on the underlying traffic flow are not yet clear. Therefore, it is of interest to accurately model vehicle-level dynamics of commercially available ACC vehicles so that they may be used in further modeling efforts to quantify the impact of commercially available ACC vehicles on traffic flow. Importantly, not only model selection but also the calibration approach and error metric used for calibration are critical to accurately model ACC vehicle behavior. In this work, we explore the question of how to calibrate car following models to describe ACC vehicle dynamics. Specifically, we apply a multi-objective calibration approach to understand the tradeoff between calibrating model parameters to minimize speed error vs. spacing error. Three different car-following models are calibrated for data from six vehicles. The results are in line with recent literature and verify that targeting a low spacing error does not compromise the speed accuracy whether the opposite is not true for modeling ACC vehicle dynamics.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Decarbonizing US passenger vehicle transport under electrification and automation uncertainty has a travel budget

Abstract The transportation sector is at the beginning of a transition represented by electrification, shared mobility, and automation, which could lead to either increases or decreases in total travel and energy use. Understanding the factors enabling deep decarbonization of the passenger vehicle sector is essential for planning the required infrastructure investments and technology adoption policies. We examine the requirements for meeting carbon reduction targets of 80% and higher for passenger vehicle transport in the United States (US) by midcentury under uncertainty. We model the changes needed in vehicle electrification, electricity carbon intensity, and travel demand. Since growth in fleet penetration of electric vehicles (EVs) is constrained by fleet stock turnover, we estimate the EV penetration rates needed to meet climate targets. We find for a base case level of passenger vehicle travel, midcentury deep decarbonization of US passenger transport is conditional on reducing the electricity generation carbon intensity to close to zero along with electrification of about 67% or 84% of vehicle travel to meet decarbonization targets of 80% or 90%, respectively. Higher electricity generation carbon intensity and degraded EV fuel economy due to automation would require higher levels of fleet electrification and/or further constrain the total vehicle travel allowable. Transportation deep decarbonization not only depends on electricity decarbonization, but also has a total travel budget, representing a maximum total vehicle travel threshold that still enables meeting a midcentury climate target. This makes encouraging ride sharing, reducing total vehicle travel, and increasing fuel economy in both human-driven and future automated vehicles increasingly important to deep decarbonization.

Alarfaj, Abdullah F. (ORCID:0000000157360662)↗