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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

In-Time Safety Assessment & Risk Prediction for Unmanned Aerial Systems

One of the critical challenges in emerging autonomous systems is timely mitigation of hazards encountered during operation which may not be known or accounted for at the time of design. Efficient execution of unmanned systems therefore demands a paradigm shift from scheduled periodic maintenance to predictive risk analysis that includes condition-based-monitoring, real-time reliability assessment and hazard mitigation. Particularly, the state-of-health parameters needs to be computed at the component level, unit level as well as the integrated system level. While in the former two levels, the physics of health propagation may be based on underlying electro-mechanical properties, system level prognostics often relies on data-driven models. Further, uncertainty from model, measurements and input sources should be accurately quantified to generate meaningful prediction results that can be fed into reliable decision making processes. Finally, the expected risk and time to failure has to be computed based on the current state-of-health of the overall system. This talk presents a conceptual design of such an in-time safety assurance approach for unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) operating at low altitudes near and over populated areas. Typical in-flight hazard incidents include unplanned detour, proximity to obstacles, mid-flight component faults, limited battery life and poor quality of GPS measurements. Safety assessment therefore comprises trajectory generation and re-plan, battery RUL computation, distributed fault diagnostics and uncertainty management of predicted trajectory based on GPS measurement noise. The entire monitoring framework will be demonstrated on simulated as well as real UAV flight experiments conducted at the NASA Langley Research Center. This tutorial will therefore guide the audience through a step-by-step tracking of an autonomous system with focus on in-time risk prediction in the presence of unforeseen hazards and uncertain environment.

diagnostics↗

NASA NTRS2021

The Correct Sense of Faraday Rotation

The phenomenon of Faraday rotation of linearly polarized synchrotron emission in a magneto-ionized medium has been understood and studied for decades. But since the sense of the rotation itself is irrelevant in most contexts, some uncertainty and inconsistencies have arisen in the literature about this detail. Here, we start from basic plasma theory to describe the propagation of polarized emission from a background radio source through a magnetized, ionized medium in order to rederive the correct sense of Faraday rotation. We present simple graphics to illustrate the decomposition of a linearly polarized wave into right and left circularly polarized modes, the temporal and spatial propagation of the phases of those modes, and the resulting physical rotation of the polarization orientation. We then re-examine the case of a medium that both Faraday-rotates and emits polarized radiation and show how a helical magnetic field can construct or destruct the Faraday rotation. This paper aims to resolve a source of confusion that has arisen between the plasma physics and radio astronomy communities and to help avoid common pitfalls when working with this unintuitive phenomenon.

ISM↗

NASA NTRS2015

How Certain are We of the Uncertainties in Recent Ozone Profile Trend Assessments of Merged Limbo Ccultation Records? Challenges and Possible Ways Forward

Most recent assessments of long-term changes in the vertical distribution of ozone (by e.g. WMO and SI2N) rely on data sets that integrate observations by multiple instruments. Several merged satellite ozone profile records have been developed over the past few years; each considers a particular set of instruments and adopts a particular merging strategy. Their intercomparison by Tummon et al. revealed that the current merging schemes are not sufficiently refined to correct for all major differences between the limb/occultation records. This shortcoming introduces uncertainties that need to be known to obtain a sound interpretation of the different satellite-based trend studies. In practice however, producing realistic uncertainty estimates is an intricate task which depends on a sufficiently detailed understanding of the characteristics of each contributing data record and on the subsequent interplay and propagation of these through the merging scheme. Our presentation discusses these challenges in the context of limb/occultation ozone profile records, but they are equally relevant for other instruments and atmospheric measurements. We start by showing how the NDACC and GAW-affiliated ground-based networks of ozonesonde and lidar instruments allowed us to characterize fourteen limb/occultation ozone profile records, together providing a global view over the last three decades. Our prime focus will be on techniques to estimate long-term drift since our results suggest this is the main driver of the major trend differences between the merged data sets. The single-instrument drift estimates are then used for a tentative estimate of the systematic uncertainty in the profile trends from merged data records. We conclude by reflecting on possible further steps needed to improve the merging algorithms and to obtain a better characterization of the uncertainties involved.

Merging Algorithms↗

NASA NTRS1991

J-85 jet engine noise measured in the ONERA S1 wind tunnel and extrapolated to far field

Noise from a J-85 turbojet with a conical, convergent nozzle was measured in simulated flight in the ONERA S1 Wind Tunnel. Data are presented for several flight speeds up to 130 m/sec and for radiation angles of 40 to 160 degrees relative to the upstream direction. The jet was operated with subsonic and sonic exhaust speeds. A moving microphone on a 2 m sideline was used to survey the radiated sound field in the acoustically treated, closed test section. The data were extrapolated to a 122 m sideline by means of a multiple-sideline source-location method, which was used to identify the acoustic source regions, directivity patterns, and near field effects. The source-location method is described along with its advantages and disadvantages. Results indicate that the effects of simulated flight on J-85 noise are significant. At the maximum forward speed of 130 m/sec, the peak overall sound levels in the aft quadrant were attentuated approximately 10 dB relative to sound levels of the engine operated statically. As expected, the simulated flight and static data tended to merge in the forward quadrant as the radiation angle approached 40 degrees. There is evidence that internal engine or shock noise was important in the forward quadrant. The data are compared with published predictions for flight effects on pure jet noise and internal engine noise. A new empirical prediction is presented that relates the variation of internally generated engine noise or broadband shock noise to forward speed. Measured near field noise extrapolated to far field agrees reasonably well with data from similar engines tested statically outdoors, in flyover, in a wind tunnel, and on the Bertin Aerotrain. Anomalies in the results for the forward quadrant and for angles above 140 degrees are discussed. The multiple-sideline method proved to be cumbersome in this application, and it did not resolve all of the uncertainties associated with measurements of jet noise close to the jet. The simulation was complicated by wind-tunnel background noise and the propagation of low frequency sound around the circuit.

Soderman, Paul T.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Observation of anomalous slow-mode shock and reconnection layer in the dayside magnetospause

Plasma and magnetic field data from the International Sun-Earth Explorer ISEE 2 spacecraft recorded during an outbound crossing of the dayside, northern hemisphere magnetopause in October 29, 1979, provide evidence for a slow shock (SS) in the observed reconnection layer. This layer is found to be bounded on the magnetosheath side by the SS; near the magnetospheric side of the layer, a second current sheet is found that may have been rotational discontinuity (RD). The direction of the accelerated plasma flow, the earthward sense of the normal magnetic filed across the SS and RD, and the relative orientation of the SS and the RD all indicate that the reconection site was located south of the spacecraft. Quantitative tests show that, allowing for experiemental uncertanties, data taken upstream and downstream of the SS are consistent with coplanarity and other Rankine-Hugoniot (RH) conditions. Examiniations of the flow parameters indicates two anomalous properties of the SS: the upstream flow, viewed in the deHoffmann-Teller frame, is superalfvenic and the downstream plasma is firehose unstable. In comparison to the long-wavelength slow-mode phase speed, however, the flow in the upstream region is super slow, while in the downstream region it is subslow, as requeired for a slow-mode shock. Further properties of the shock include a large decrease in total enthalpy across it, indicating the escape of a sizable heat flux from the shock structure, and the occurrence of a polarization reversal of the tangential magnetic field within the shock layer, a feature that is predicted by linear double-polytropic Hall-MHD and results from a large increase in pressure anistropy from the upstream region, where p(sub parallel) approximately equal to p(sub perp), to the downstream region, where p(sub parrallel) greater than p(sub perp). Quantitative tests of the RD-like discontinuity show that it satisfies the necessary RH conditions within experimental uncertainties and indicate that the flow across it is earthward, that is, it is the same as for the SS. Thus the RD is propagating behind the SS in the direction away from the Earth. The reversal in the order of the discontinuities is attributed to the reversal of the slow and intermediate phase speeds produced by the pressure anistropy in the region between the RD and the SS. The linear dispersion relation and polarization properties of dispersive MHD waves in an anisotropic plasma are examined in the appendix.

Walthour, D. W↗

NASA NTRS2023

CME Propagation Through the Heliosphere: Status and Future of Observations and Model Development

The ISWAT (International Space Weather Action Teams) heliosphere clusters H1 and H2 have a focus on interplanetary space and its characteristics, especially on the large-scale co-rotating and transient structures impacting Earth. Solar wind stream interaction regions, generated by the interaction between high-speed solar wind originating in large-scale open coronal magnetic fields and slower solar wind from closed magnetic fields, are regions of compressed plasma and magnetic field followed by high-speed streams that recur at the ~27 day solar rotation period. Short-term reconfigurations of the lower coronal magnetic field generate flare emissions and provide the energy to accelerate enormous amounts of magnetised plasma and particles in the form of coronal mass ejections into interplanetary space. The dynamic interplay between these phenomena changes the configuration of interplanetary space on various temporal and spatial scales which in turn influences the propagation of individual structures. While considerable efforts have been made to model the solar wind, we outline the limitations arising from the rather large uncertainties in parameters inferred from observations that make reliable predictions of the structures impacting Earth difficult. Moreover, the increased complexity of interplanetary space as solar activity rises in cycle 25 is likely to pose a challenge to these models. Combining observational and modeling expertise will extend our knowledge of the relationship between these different phenomena and the underlying physical processes, leading to improved models and scientific understanding and more-reliable space-weather forecasting. The current paper summarizes the efforts and progress achieved in recent years, identifies open questions, and gives an outlook for the next 5–10 years. It acts as basis for updating the existing COSPAR roadmap by Schrijver et al. (2015), as well as providing a useful and practical guide for peer-users and the next generation of space weather scientists.

Space weather↗

NASA NTRS1981

High-resolution observations of the isotopic composition of carbon and silicon in the galactic cosmic rays

High resolution satellite observations of the galactic cosmic rays (approximately 100-300 MeV/amu) have yielded determinations of near-earth isotopic compositions, which are presented: (C-13)/(C-12) = 0.070 + or - 0.006; (Si-29)/(Si-28) = 0.109(+0.024, -0.014); and (Si-30)/(Si-28) = 0.084(+0.020, -0.014). Using a standard propagation model, source values greater than solar are derived for each of these ratios. The (C-13) excess may be the result of cross section uncertainties, but the (Si-29) and (Si-30) appear to reflect real differences between the galactic cosmic-ray source and the solar system.

Wiedenbeck, M. E.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Follow on Researches for X-56A Aircraft at NASA Dryden Flight Research Center (Progress Report)

A lot of composite materials are used for the modern aircraft to reduce its weight. Aircraft aeroservoelastic models are typically characterized by significant levels of model parameter uncertainty due to composite manufacturing process. Small modeling errors in the finite element model will eventually induce errors in the structural flexibility and mass, thus propagating into unpredictable errors in the unsteady aerodynamics and the control law design. One of the primary objectives of X-56A aircraft is the flight demonstration of active flutter suppression, and therefore in this study, the identification of the primary and secondary modes is based on the flutter analysis of X-56A aircraft. It should be noted that for all three Mach number cases rigid body modes and mode numbers seven and nine are participated 89.1 92.4 % of the first flutter mode. Modal participation of the rigid body mode and mode numbers seven and nine for the second flutter mode are 94.6 96.4%. Rigid body mode and the first two anti-symmetric modes, eighth and tenth modes, are participated 93.2 94.6% of the third flutter mode. Therefore, rigid body modes and the first four flexible modes of X-56A aircraft are the primary modes during the model tuning procedure. The ground vibration test-validated structural dynamic finite element model of the X-56A aircraft is to obtain in this study. The structural dynamics finite element model of X-56A aircraft is improved using the parallelized big-bang big-crunch algorithm together with a hybrid optimization technique.

Structural Dynamic Model Tuning↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Demand Capacity Balancing at Vertiports for Initial Strategic Conflict Management of Urban Air Mobility Operations

Urban Air Mobility (UAM) is a new transportation concept that enables highly automated, cooperative, passenger or cargo-carrying air transportation services in and around urban areas. To achieve the high level of operational density and complexity desired by the UAM community, an airspace system that allows UAM operators to readily access and operate safely and efficiently in the airspace is needed. This airspace system will require air traffic management designed to reduce the risk of conflicts and loss of separation between UAM flights. In general, strategic conflict management is considered as the first layer of conflict management for safe flight operations to condition the traffic to reduce the need for airborne separation provision, the second layer of conflict management. Demand Capacity Balancing (DCB) is one of the concept components to achieve strategic conflict management. DCB strategically evaluates traffic demand and resource capacities to allow UAM operators to determine when, where and how they operate, while mitigating conflicting needs for airspace and vertiport capacity. DCB can be applied whenever UAM demand exceeds the capacity in airspace or at vertiports. As the UAM ecosystem evolves with advanced technologies and matured operational procedures, more complicated conflict management will likely be needed. In the current UAM ‘Concept of Operation (ConOps) 1.0’ operational stage defined by FAA, however, it will be meaningful to explore the demand capacity balancing at vertiports only, as an initial strategic conflict management approach for UAM operations because vertiport capacity seems to be a bottleneck of UAM traffic. For this research, we developed a demand-capacity imbalance detection and resolution service for UAM. This DCB service identifies the demand from operators and compares the demand to a given capacity at the shared resources (i.e., vertiports) over the upcoming time horizon which is divided into time bins having a constant interval. When a new flight plan is submitted, the algorithm embedded in the DCB service checks the available time bins based on the desired departure time and estimated arrival time at origin and destination vertiports, respectively. If the time bins for the originally desired times are already occupied by other flights (i.e., demand is at or above capacity), the algorithm finds the next available time bins for takeoff and landing and shifts the conflicting departure time to the earliest time that satisfies the capacity constraints at both origin and destination vertiports. The details of the algorithm will be described in the final manuscript. Figure 1 shows that the proposed DCB algorithm works well for a sample traffic scenario. In this example, a total of 144 flights, split between two operators, are planned over 2 hours, traveling 10 routes between five vertiports. In the heatmaps, the horizontal axis shows 12 time bins where each bin represents a 12-minute interval, and the vertical axis shows five vertiports. The number in each cell shows the number of operations, counting both departures and arrivals, at a specific vertiport in each time bin. For the given capacity of 2 operations/vertiport/bin, Figure 1 shows that the original demand sometimes exceeds the capacity, but the modified demand is reduced to the given capacity after resolving demand-capacity imbalances. When UAM flights are operated, it is expected that many practical issues would arise in the federated system architecture with multiple operators. UAM operators may experience a time synchronization issue due to communication delay between operator and vehicle. UAM vehicles would fly at different flight speeds, depending on vehicle models. Actual departure and arrival times can have large variations, compared to the schedule. The lead time from flight plan submission to desired departure time can vary by service type (e.g., regular shuttle service vs. on-demand service). Using the proposed DCB algorithm, we also investigated how the actual flight schedule and DCB performance are affected by these uncertainties such as unsynchronized times between operators, flight speed differences, lead time differences, and departure time errors. The final manuscript will include the background of this research work, the description of the DCB algorithm and its use cases with traffic scenarios. It will also provide the analytical results about the impact of various uncertainties that can occur in actual UAM operations on the DCB at vertiports, in terms of demand distribution changes, number of simultaneous operations, and delay propagation.

Urban Air Mobility↗

NASA NTRS2002

Charge Generation and Propagation in Igneous Rocks

Various electrical phenomena have been reported prior to or concurrent with earthquakes such as resistivity changes, ground potentials, electromagnetic (EM), and luminous signals. Doubts have been raised as to whether some of these phenomena are real and indeed precursory. One of the reasons for uncertainty is that, despite decades of intense work, there is still no physically coherent model. Using low- to medium-velocity impacts to measure electrical signals with microsecond time resolution, it has now been observed that when dry gabbro and diorite cores are impacted at relatively low velocities, approximately 100 m/s, highly mobile charge carriers are generated in a small volume near the impact point. They spread through the rocks, causing electric potentials exceeding +400 mV, EM, and light emission. As the charge cloud spreads, the rock becomes momentarily conductive. When a dry granite block is impacted at higher velocity, approximately 1.5 km/s, the propagation of the P and S waves is registered through the transient piezoelectric response of quartz. After the sound waves have passed, the surface of the granite block becomes positively charged, suggesting the same charge carriers as observed during the low-velocity impact experiments, expanding from within the bulk. During the next 2-3 ms the surface potential oscillates, indicating pulses of electrons injected from ground and contact electrodes. The observations are consistent with positive holes, e.g., defect electrons in the O(2-) sublattice, traveling via the O 2p-dominated valence band of the silicate minerals. Before activation, the positive holes lay dormant in the form of electrically inactive positive hole pairs (PHP), chemically equivalent to peroxy links, O3X/OO\XO3, with X=Si(4+), Al(3+), etc. PHPs are introduced into the minerals by way of hydroxyl,O3X-OH, which all nominally anhydrous minerals incorporate when crystallizing in H2O-laden environments. The fact that positive holes can be activated by low-energy impacts, and their attendant sound waves, suggests that they can also be activated by microfracturing. Depending on where in the stressed rock volume the charge carriers are activated, they will form rapidly moving or fluctuating charge clouds that may account for earthquake-related electrical signals and EM emission. Wherever such charge clouds intersect the surface, high fields are expected, causing electric discharges and earthquake lights.

Freund, Friedemann↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Higher-Order Statistical Moments of Predicted Sonic Boom Waveforms Through Turbulence

Sonic booms generated by supersonic aircraft are affected by turbulence in the atmospheric boundary layer through which they propagate. Turbulence effects lead to random variability of the sonic boom waveforms measured on the ground, complicating the prediction of such waveforms. As an initial effort to predict the waveform variability, the solution of the coherent or mean sonic boom waveform has previously been formulated by the author. The current paper extends the formulation to derive an expression of the second-order statistical moment necessary to calculate the variance of the spectral amplitudes. Since the derivation uses a full wave equation, results using the derived expression will be compared with those obtained using a parabolic approximation. In order to fully quantify the uncertainty of our predictions, the higher order statistical moments are also formulated and are shown to be approximately zero. Consequently, the probability density function (pdf) of the spectral amplitudes is predicted to be Gaussian. The formulation is further extended to determine the pdf of the loudness of sonic booms and quantify the uncertainties associated with the loudness prediction. Results from the formulation are compared with available flight test data.

sonic booms↗

NASA NTRS1990

A methodology for probabilistic prediction of structural failures of launch vehicle propulsion systems

A quantitative methodology for estimating the probability of occurrence of critical structural failure modes of launch vehicle propulsion systems during mission operation is presented. In this approach, engineering analysis models that characterize specific failure modes based on the physics and mechanics of the failure phenomenon are used in a prescribed probabalistic structure in which quantified uncertainty in the information used in the analysis and quantified uncertainty of the engineering analysis models themselves are both considered in estimating failure risk. The methodology is applicable to high cycle fatigue, low cycle fatigue, flaw propagation stress rupture, and other failure modes of launch vehicle propulsion systems and other space-flight systems. The probabalistic failure assessment presented provides the capability of performing quantitative analyses to rank options to improve reliability, thereby enabling limited financial resources of development and improvement programs to be more effectively allocated.

Moore, N.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Follow on Research for Multi-Utility Technology Test Bed Aircraft at NASA Dryden Flight Research Center (FY13 Progress Report)

Modern aircraft employ a significant fraction of their weight in composite materials to reduce weight and improve performance. Aircraft aeroservoelastic models are typically characterized by significant levels of model parameter uncertainty due to the composite manufacturing process. Small modeling errors in the finite element model will eventually induce errors in the structural flexibility and mass, thus propagating into unpredictable errors in the unsteady aerodynamics and the control law design. One of the primary objectives of Multi Utility Technology Test-bed (MUTT) aircraft is the flight demonstration of active flutter suppression, and therefore in this study, the identification of the primary and secondary modes for the structural model tuning based on the flutter analysis of MUTT aircraft. The ground vibration test-validated structural dynamic finite element model of the MUTT aircraft is created in this study. The structural dynamic finite element model of MUTT aircraft is improved using the in-house Multi-disciplinary Design, Analysis, and Optimization tool. In this study, two different weight configurations of MUTT aircraft have been improved simultaneously in a single model tuning procedure.

multi-utility technology test bed aircraft↗

NASA NTRS1977

The Viking Relativity Experiment

Measurements of the round-trip time of flight of radio signals transmitted from the earth to the Viking spacecraft are being analyzed to test the predictions of Einstein's theory of general relativity. According to this theory the signals will be delayed by up to approximately 250 microsec owing to the direct effect of solar gravity on the propagation. A very preliminary qualitative analysis of the Viking data obtained near the 1976 superior conjunction of Mars indicates agreement with the predictions to within the estimated uncertainty of 0.5%.

Shapiro, I. I.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Methods for System-Level Multidisciplinary Uncertainty Analysis of Low-Boom Flight Vehicles

Current research supporting NASA’s Commercial Supersonic Technology project is focused on the efficient prediction of uncertainty in sonic boom loudness generated by low-boom aircraft concepts. This paper focuses on research incorporating aircraft trim and aerostructural analysis into a multidisciplinary system-level uncertainty analysis. This enables the modeling of a steady-state representation of a point in the uncertainty space, simulating the vehicle as it would be flown. This approach also enables multiple uncertain parameters defining the configuration of the vehicle to be reduced to three: Mach number, altitude, and aircraft weight. To demonstrate this methodology, a case study exploring a conceptual low-boom supersonic aircraft is performed. Two different approaches are used to model the interactions between nearfield pressure signature analysis and sonic boom propagation, and their performance is evaluated in terms of accuracy and computational expense. One method uses a set of local surrogate models to generate a large number of nearfield signatures and perform Monte Carlo analysis. This method is found to produce, at a lower expense, uncertainty metrics that are comparable to the second method, in which uncertainty metrics are computed based on loudness metric values obtained directly from simulated nearfield signatures.

UQ↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Method for System-Level Multidisciplinary Uncertainty Analysis of Low-Boom Flight Vehicles

Supersonics↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Uncertainty Quantification of CFD Model Assumptions Against Sonic Boom Noise Prediction of a Commercial Supersonic Transport

This paper presents the results of uncertainty modeling of sonic boom noise generation from commercial supersonic transport considering the Spalart-Allmaras (SA) turbulence modeling parameters as well as Mach number, angle of attack and altitude. Sample generation and analysis for this uncertainty model was performed by UQPCE, which is a software package developed at the NASA Langley Research Center. To build the uncertainty model, 42 cases of sonic boom noise calculation were performed. Computation of the ground noise can be briefly summarized in two steps. First, the near field pressure waveforms are sampled from CFD calculation using the NASA Langley’s FUN3D solver. Second, this information is passed to an atmospheric propagation code, sBOOM, which solves an augmented Burger’s equation and simulates how the near field waveforms will change while passing through the atmosphere. The ground signature is further processed to obtain the perceived loudness, PLdB. Having a high spatial resolution near the shockwave in the CFD calculation is critical in sonic boom noise prediction. Because the variation in the input parameters for the current uncertainty quantification (UQ) study is likely to lead to change in shock location, angle and strength, the grid adaptation for shock capturing is independently applied for each condition. The final mesh used in the CFD calculation consists of approximately 420 million cells. The pressure signatures are sampled at three, four and five body lengths away from the aircraft to make sure the three dimensional effects around the aircraft are resolved. The results of the UQ analysis shows that within the three aleatory variables, the angle of attack had the most impact against ground noise, followed by the altitude and the Mach number. Between the two SA model parameters, the Kármán constant (𝜅) was significantly more important than the turbulent Prandtl number (𝜎), but these two parameters were only marginally significant in the overall prediction variance in ground noise. The UQ procedure explained in this paper can be widely applied to other model parameters.

Uncertainty Quantification↗

NASA NTRS1981

Autonomous attitude determination from star data for a dual-spin planetary spacecraft

A batch mode process which identifies three reference stars within a rotor-mounted star scanner's field-of-view based on the criteria of intensity and geometry was established. The sequential mode which continuously tracks the reference stars provides star transit times and estimates of rotor's spin rate. A least-square estimator was formulated which sequentially determines the spacecraft attitude from sucessive star crossings by minimizing the error in the star and scanner slit normal orthogonality. This spacecraft attitude also provides intermittent updates for the gyro propagated inertial attitude of the despun science platform. Simulation results are presented, showing successful star identification and attitude convergence in the presence of nutation and star transit time uncertainty.

Wong, E. C.↗