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At least 307 records · Page 17

National Rotor Testbed Requirements. Draft

This document serves both as a guide and a record for requirements management associated with design of retrofit rotors for the Sandia SWiFT turbines. The rotors will support a long-term experimental campaign. Data gathered during the campaign will support formal verification and validation of complex flow numerical models for prediction of metrics deemed important for wind energy plant efficiency. These integrated projects involve multiple years of effort, dozens of engineers and collaborators, and dozens of stakeholders in the form of the research community, National Lab staff, and DOE staff. Creating of formal, written requirements will ensure flow-down of activities from high-level goals, aid communication, and enable clear verification of activities. A custom requirements schema is created and described. Commercial requirements management software —IBM Rational DOORS—is used to organize the information and ensure traceability. This document serves as a record of the process as well as a record of the exported, detailed contents of the DOORS database.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Examining Autonomous Inspection of Geologic Repositories

Geological repositories for nuclear waste, including spent nuclear fuel, present a significant challenge for traditional International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards tools due to their inaccessibility and demanding operational conditions. The IAEA has been working closely with Member State organizations currently involved in repository construction and planning including Euratom, the Finnish and Swedish regulatory authorities, and relevant facility operators. However, the verification challenge remains unsolved, and there persists an out-standing need for tools and approaches that will help the IAEA verify that no nuclear material is diverted from a repository environment. The challenge is also not static as activities must encompass verification of the design prior to and during the construction/operation phase, and post backfill. Throughout these various phases, it is imperative that the IAEA maintains a continuity of knowledge (CoK) of all material, including information on material inventory and flow. This paper highlights these challenges and outlines how they might be addressed by using remote or autonomous vehicles. Specifically, it discusses the current state of the art in robotic autonomy for known or partially known environment mapping and patrolling, as well as shared autonomy, where humans collaborate with closed loop autonomation to complete tasks. The feasibility of using rovers for these verification tasks is explored, along with the challenges associated with system implementation. Hardware and software suggestions are provided based on the adoption of similar technologies in other comparable areas and ability to close technical gaps. Finally, human-robotic interactions are considered based on the challenges of the environment of the repository and effective deployment and continued operation of the robot system

autonomous monitoring↗

Experiment Automation with a Robot Arm using the Liquids Reflectometer Instrument at the Spallation Neutron Source

The Liquids Reflectometer instrument installed at the Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) enables observations of chemical kinetics, solid-state reactions and phase-transitions of thin film materials at both solid and liquid surfaces. Effective measurement of these behaviors requires each sample to be calibrated dynamically using the neutron beam and the data acquisition system in a feedback loop. Since the SNS is an intense neutron source, the time needed to perform the measurement can be the same as the alignment process, leading to a labor-intensive operation that is exhausting to users. An update to the instrument control system, completed in March 2013, implemented the key features of automated sample alignment and robot-driven sample management, allowing for unattended operation over extended periods, lasting as long as 20 hours. We present a case study of the effort, detailing the mechanical, electrical and software modifications that were made as well as the lessons learned during the integration, verification and testing process.

automated alignment↗

Development and Assessment of CTF for Pin-resolved BWR Modeling

CTF is the modernized and improved version of the subchannel code, COBRA-TF. It has been adopted by the Consortium for Advanced Simulation for Light Water Reactors (CASL) for subchannel analysis applications and thermal hydraulic feedback calculations in the Virtual Environment for Reactor Applications Core Simulator (VERA-CS). CTF is now jointly developed by Oak Ridge National Laboratory and North Carolina State University. Until now, CTF has been used for pressurized water reactor modeling and simulation in CASL, but in the future it will be extended to boiling water reactor designs. This required development activities to integrate the code into the VERA-CS workflow and to make it more ecient for full-core, pin resolved simulations. Additionally, there is a significant emphasis on producing high quality tools that follow a regimented software quality assurance plan in CASL. Part of this plan involves performing validation and verification assessments on the code that are easily repeatable and tied to specific code versions. This work has resulted in the CTF validation and verification matrix being expanded to include several two-phase flow experiments, including the General Electric 3 3 facility and the BWR Full-Size Fine Mesh Bundle Tests (BFBT). Comparisons with both experimental databases is reasonable, but the BFBT analysis reveals a tendency of CTF to overpredict void, especially in the slug flow regime. The execution of these tests is fully automated, analysis is documented in the CTF Validation and Verification manual, and the tests have become part of CASL continuous regression testing system. This paper will summarize these recent developments and some of the two-phase assessments that have been performed on CTF.

Salko, Robert K↗

SU-F-T-218: Validation of An In-Vivo Proton Range Verification Method for Reducing the Risk of Permanent Alopecia in the Treatment of Pediatric Medulloblastoma

Purpose: The clinical commissioning of a workflow for pre-treatment range verification/adjustment for the head treatment of pediatric medulloblastoma patients, including dose monitoring during treatment. Methods: An array of Si-diodes (DIODES Incorporated) is placed on the patient skin on the opposite side to the beam entrance. A “scout” SOBP beam, with a longer beam range to cover the diodes in its plateau, is delivered; the measured signal is analyzed and the extracted water equivalent path lengths (WEPL) are compared to the expected values, revealing if a range correction is needed. Diodes stay in place during treatment to measure dose. The workflow was tested in solid water and head phantoms and validated against independent WEPL measurements. Both measured WEPL and skin doses were compared to computed values from the TPS (XiO); a Markus chamber was used for reference dose measurements. Results: The WEPL accuracy of the method was verified by comparing it with the dose extinction method. It resulted, for both solid water and head phantom, in the sub-millimeter range, with a deviation less than 1% to the value extracted from the TPS. The accuracy of dose measurements in the fall-off part of the dose profile was validated against the Markus chamber. The entire range verification workflow was successfully tested for the mock-treatment of head phantom with the standard delivery of 90 cGy per field per fraction. The WEPL measurement revealed no need for range correction. The dose measurements agreed to better than 4% with the prescription dose. The robustness of the method and workflow, including detector array, hardware set and software functions, was successfully stress-tested with multiple repetitions. Conclusion: The performance of the in-vivo range verification system and related workflow meet the clinical requirements in terms of the needed WEPL accuracy for pretreatment range verification with acceptable dose to the patient.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Incorporation of Multi-Member Substructure Capabilities in FAST for Analysis of Offshore Wind Turbines: Preprint

FAST, developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), is an aero-hydro-servo-elastic tool widely used for analyzing onshore and offshore wind turbines. This paper discusses recent modifications made to FAST to enable the examination of offshore wind turbines with fixed-bottom, multi-member support structures (which are commonly used in transitional-depth waters). ; This paperaddresses the methods used for incorporating the hydrostatic and hydrodynamic loading on multi-member structures in FAST through its hydronamic loading module, HydroDyn. Modeling of the hydrodynamic loads was accomplished through the incorporation of Morison and buoyancy loads on the support structures. Issues addressed include how to model loads at the joints of intersecting members and ontapered and tilted members of the support structure. Three example structures are modeled to test and verify the solutions generated by the modifications to HydroDyn, including a monopile, tripod, and jacket structure. Verification is achieved through comparison of the results to a computational fluid dynamics (CFD)-derived solution using the commercial software tool STAR-CCM+.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

A Runtime Verification Framework for Control System Simulation

n a standard workflow for the validation of a control system, the control system is implemented as an extension to a simulator. Such simulators are complex software systems, and engineers may unknowingly violate constraints a simulator places on extensions. As such, errors may be introduced in the implementation of either the control system or the simulator leading to invalid simulation results. This paper presents a novel runtime verification approach for verifying control system implementations within simulators. The major contribution of the approach is the two-tier specification process. In the first tier, engineers model constraints using a domain-specific language tailored to modeling a controller’s response to changes in its input. The language is high-level and effectively hides the implementation details of the simulator, allowing engineers to specify design-level constraints independent of low-level simulator interfaces. In the second tier, simulator developers provide mapping rules for mapping design-level constraints to the implementation of the simulator. Using the rules, an automated tool transforms the design-level specifications into simulator-specific runtime verification specifications and generates monitoring code which is injected into the implementation of the simulator. During simulation, these monitors observe the input and output variables of the control system and report changes to the verifier. The verifier checks whether these changes follow the constraints of the control system. We describe application of this approach to the verification of the constraints of an HVAC control system implemented with the power grid simulator GridLAB-D.

control system↗

Preparatory Verification of a New Monte Carlo Code cosRMC based on VERA Core Physics Benchmark

To promote nuclear power plant system design and simulation software self-reliance development, DOE of China approved a R and D key project to develop an integrated engine for pressurized water reactor core and system design and analysis, referred as COSINE hereafter. The scope of this code package includes reactor physics, thermal hydraulics, safety analysis, severe accidents, probability safety assessment and etc. Many universities, research institutes and nuclear related corporations in China are involved in the code development, among which the State Nuclear Power Software Development Center (SNPSDC) plays the leading role. With the requirement of accurate three-dimensional modeling of the advanced, special or new complex core in reactor neutronics and shielding analysis, Monte Carlo method is becoming a more powerful tool for reactor analysis. Thus, a new Monte Carlo transport code named cosRMC (abbreviation for COSINE Reactor Monte Carlo) has been developed jointly by SNPSDC and Department of Engineering Physics, Tsinghua University, the main developer of RMC code. The cosRMC now has many functions as criticality calculation, fixed-source calculation, burnup calculation, and etc. Some techniques for geometry treatment, new burnup algorithm, source convergence acceleration, massive tally and parallel calculation have been implemented in cosRMC to improve the efficiency. In order to ensure its reliability, several types of V and V work have been and are being carried out for cosRMC. In this paper, some preparatory verification results based on VERA Core Physics Benchmark are presented. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Cybersecurity Platform and Certification Framework Development for Extreme Fast Charging (XFC)-Integrated Charging Ecosystem (Final Project Report)

This report summarizes a pioneering effort in Electric Vehicle charging infrastructure ecosystem cybersecurity requirements, assessment methodologies, functional verification, as well as embodiment of the key technologies in the form of hardware and software tools being made available to the public. EPRI led a team of experts, as well as a stakeholder coalition encompassing all key actors in the EV charging infrastructure ecosystem that includes eXtreme Fast Charging (XFC) equipment (defined as 200kW or above). EV charging infrastructure in the United States is a patchwork of networks that have continued to grow organically and have been designed to serve the charging needs of the EV owners, who are their customers. In doing so, each network provider, as well as their connected entities such as the cloud Electric Vehicle Service Providers or EVSPs, utility back office, utility AMI networks, payment networks, as well as Original Equipment Manufacturer (EV manufacturer) telematics networks, have designed systems that may work well individually, but no single entity is responsible for the entire ecosystem to be secure in terms of data exchange. Furthermore, there is no uniformity in how each actor has implemented the cybersecurity requirements since no system-wide cybersecurity requirements existed prior to this project. The final project report describes the technical approach guided by the EV charging infrastructure cybersecurity working group, convened specifically for this project. The technical approach included definition of requirements at the ecosystem level, treated as a ‘system of systems’, and then passed down to individual systems (EVSE, EV, cloud EVSP, utility, and the payment networks), followed by developing the cybersecurity risk and vulnerability assessment methods, that were later applied to real-world cyber-physical systems at EPRI, ANL, and NREL laboratories, to validate both the process and the results. Finally, in a spotlight over the most vulnerable equipment, which is the EV charge station (AC or DC), the team developed a multi-layer cybersecurity implementation in the embedded domain embodied by the open-source Secure Network Interface Card (SNIC) demonstrating the various ways in which the infrastructure can be secured protecting against the identified attack surfaces. Finally, the entire process of EV infrastructure cybersecurity assessment was encapsulated in the Electric Vehicle Charging Cybersecurity Management (EVC2M) online GUI-based tool, that is expected to be released to the public. The report presents the objectives, the technical approach, the key results, and recommendations for future work.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

SU-E-T-815: In Vivo Dosimetry and Daily Arc Junction Verification Using EBT3 Gafchromic Film for Pediatric Cranio-Spinal Irradiation

Purpose: Perform dosimetric comparison between planned and delivered dose in the junction area, measure daily dose variation in the arc junction area for pediatric patients treated for medulloblastoma using Craniospinal axis irradiation(CSI) Material and methods Dose comparison in the junction area, daily dose variation in the arc junction area for a Rando Phantom and 5 pediatric patients treated using CSI technique were analyzed. Plans were created using the Eclipse treatment planning system. Two arcs for cranium and 1 arc for spine region were used. Planar dose matrix was created by projecting phantom and patient plan into the ArcCheck phantom. EBT3 film was placed in the middle of ArcCheck plug to measure dose distribution in the junction areaDuring patient treatment, strip of EBT3 film was placed daily at each junction area for verification. EBT3 films were scanned using a flatbed scanner, Epson Expression 10000 XL. Film QA pro software was used to analyze film. Scanning and analysis was performed according to vendor recommendations and AAPM TG-55 report. Films were scanned and analyzed daily after each treatment and at the end of treatment course. Planar dose distributions from films were compared with planar dose distribution from treatment planning system. Results: Comparison of planned vs. measured dose distributions for patients have passing rates of 90%–100% with 3% and 3 mm gamma analysis. In some of the treatment fractions, daily setup film showed variation in dose distribution in the junction area. Conclusion: It is critical to measure dose distribution in the arc junction area and use additional quality assurance measures to verify daily setup for CSI patient where one or more junctions are present. EBT3 film prove to be a good tool to achieve this task considering flexibility associated with the film such as symmetry, self-developing and ease of use.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Requirements Description of DASSH-F

This report reviews the modeling and simulation capabilities of Argonne National Laboratory’s DASSH code that is used in present reactor analysis activities. These capabilities will be used to establish the set of verification tasks necessary to verify DASSH for use on commercial projects. A similar approach was taken for the PERSENT, REBUS and DIF3D software packages. The DASSH program is a thermal analysis code designed to rapidly allow a reactor design engineer to obtain flow rates requirements that satisfy peak temperature constraints in the domain. DASSH is a follow-on development to the SE2-ANL software and SUPERENERGY-2 software that it is based upon. DASSH was designed to account for both neutron and gamma heating and is inherently connected to the GAMSOR part of the ARC suite of fast reactor analysis software. SE2-ANL is a developed piece of software from the 1980s while DASSH is a modern implementation with notable improvements in geometry handling. The most important upgrade of DASSH relative to SE2-ANL is that it can analyze multiple time points in a single run where SE2-ANL can only treat a single time point. This allows the user to understand the impact of and search the flow distribution for the entire operational period of a reactor design considering pressure drop, peak coolant and fuel temperatures, and thermal striping. DASSH has three input paths that have to be verified. The first input path builds the geometry and power distribution based upon the DIF3D model but ignores the gamma heating aspects of the problem. The second input path also builds the geometry from the DIF3D model but it takes the neutron and gamma heating distributions from GAMSOR. The third input path is to take the geometry and power distribution directly from user input (i.e. not coupled to DIF3D or GAMSOR). DASSH also has many built in correlations for material properties along with a user defined specification of the fuel, structure, and coolant properties. There are correlations for flow split, mixing, pressure drop, and heat transfer coefficients (subchannel rather than a direct methodology). In total, verification of DASSH will require an extensive testing to cover all possible user features of the software.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

WE-D-BRA-04: Online 3D EPID-Based Dose Verification for Optimum Patient Safety

Purpose: To develop an online 3D dose verification tool based on EPID transit dosimetry to ensure optimum patient safety in radiotherapy treatments. Methods: A new software package was developed which processes EPID portal images online using a back-projection algorithm for the 3D dose reconstruction. The package processes portal images faster than the acquisition rate of the portal imager (∼ 2.5 fps). After a portal image is acquired, the software seeks for “hot spots” in the reconstructed 3D dose distribution. A hot spot is in this study defined as a 4 cm{sup 3} cube where the average cumulative reconstructed dose exceeds the average total planned dose by at least 20% and 50 cGy. If a hot spot is detected, an alert is generated resulting in a linac halt. The software has been tested by irradiating an Alderson phantom after introducing various types of serious delivery errors. Results: In our first experiment the Alderson phantom was irradiated with two arcs from a 6 MV VMAT H&N treatment having a large leaf position error or a large monitor unit error. For both arcs and both errors the linac was halted before dose delivery was completed. When no error was introduced, the linac was not halted. The complete processing of a single portal frame, including hot spot detection, takes about 220 ms on a dual hexacore Intel Xeon 25 X5650 CPU at 2.66 GHz. Conclusion: A prototype online 3D dose verification tool using portal imaging has been developed and successfully tested for various kinds of gross delivery errors. The detection of hot spots was proven to be effective for the timely detection of these errors. Current work is focused on hot spot detection criteria for various treatment sites and the introduction of a clinical pilot program with online verification of hypo-fractionated (lung) treatments.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Tanana River Test Site Model Verification Using the Marine and Hydrokinetic Toolkit (MHKiT)

The marine energy (ME) industry historically lacked a standardized data processing toolkit for common tasks such as data ingestion, quality control, and visualization. The marine and hydrokinetic toolkit (MHKiT) solved this issue by providing a public software deployment (open-source and free) toolkit for the ME industry to store and maintain commonly used functionality for wave, tidal, and river energy. This paper demonstrates an initial model verification study in MHKiT. Using Delft3D, a numerical model of the Tanana River Test Site (TRTS) at Nenana, Alaska was created. Field data from the site was collected using an Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP) at the proposed Current Energy Converter (CEC) locations. MHKiT is used to process model simulations from Delft3D and compare them to the transect data from the ADCP measurements at TRTS. The ability to use a single tool to process simulation and field data demonstrates the ease at which the ME industry can obtain results and collaborate across specialties, reducing errors and increasing efficiency.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Neutron Source Facility Training Simulator Based on EPICS

A plant operator training simulator is developed for training the plant operators as well as for design verification of plant control system (PCS) and plant protection system (PPS) for the Kharkov Institute of Physics and Technology Neutron Source Facility. The simulator provides the operator interface for the whole plant including the sub-critical assembly coolant loop, target coolant loop, secondary coolant loop, and other facility systems. The operator interface is implemented based on Experimental Physics and Industrial Control System (EPICS), which is a comprehensive software development platform for distributed control systems. Since its development at Argonne National Laboratory, it has been widely adopted in the experimental physics community, e.g. for control of accelerator facilities. This work is the first implementation for a nuclear facility. The main parts of the operator interface are the plant control panel and plant protection panel. The development involved implementation of process variable database, sequence logic, and graphical user interface (GUI) for the PCS and PPS utilizing EPICS and related software tools, e.g. sequencer for sequence logic, and control system studio (CSS-BOY) for graphical use interface. For functional verification of the PCS and PPS, a plant model is interfaced, which is a physics-based model of the facility coolant loops implemented as a numerical computer code. The training simulator is tested and demonstrated its effectiveness in various plant operation sequences, e.g. start-up, shut-down, maintenance, and refueling. It was also tested for verification of the plant protection system under various trip conditions.

Park, Young Soo↗

Demonstration of a modeling toolkit for the design of building electrical distribution systems

The deployment of building equipment (e.g., lighting, security) and miscellaneous electrical loads that fundamentally require DC power for operation is increasing. Powering these DC loads has traditionally required an AC/DC converter, but the installation of photovoltaic (PV) and battery energy storage systems that primarily produce DC power eliminates the need for AC/DC converters at each end-device. However, analyzing system energy efficiency and cost for different electrical distribution architectures can be challenging as software tools that support this are not readily available. This paper presents preliminary results from a laboratory verification of the Building Electrical Efficiency Analysis Model (BEEAM) toolkit that was developed to address this gap. Three different eight-luminaire lighting systems comprised of market-available products were designed and modeled: one that used traditional AC distribution, a second that used a hybrid AC -to- centralized DC electrical distribution architecture, and a third that used a hybrid AC -to- distributed DC architecture. Notably, AC/DC conversions are required in all three systems. BEEAM models for LED drivers as well as Power-over-Ethernet (PoE) switches were created using laboratory characterization data. The lighting systems were simulated in Modelica, and the results were compared with each other and physics-based expectations. Simulation results show that PoE system energy efficiency is highly dependent on both device specification (e.g., LED driver and PoE switch efficiency) and system architecture (e.g., PoE switch loading) choices, as expected. For the products and system architectures selected for this study, the two DC systems were found to be less efficient than the AC system over the course of typical operation. In future work, simulation results will be compared with laboratory measurements to validate the usefulness of this software for design, and lighting systems with integrated PV and battery energy storage will be simulated to quantify the energy performance improvements that result from the elimination of some AC/DC converters.

Waghale, Anay S.↗

Graphics processing unit accelerated three-dimensional model for the simulation of pulsed low-temperature plasmas

A 3-dimensional particle-in-cell/Monte Carlo collision simulation that is fully implemented on a graphics processing unit (GPU) is described and used to determine low-temperature plasma characteristics at high reduced electric field, E/n, in nitrogen gas. Details of implementation on the GPU using the NVIDIA Compute Unified Device Architecture framework are discussed with respect to efficient code execution. The software is capable of tracking around 10 × 10{sup 6} particles with dynamic weighting and a total mesh size larger than 10{sup 8} cells. Verification of the simulation is performed by comparing the electron energy distribution function and plasma transport parameters to known Boltzmann Equation (BE) solvers. Under the assumption of a uniform electric field and neglecting the build-up of positive ion space charge, the simulation agrees well with the BE solvers. The model is utilized to calculate plasma characteristics of a pulsed, parallel plate discharge. A photoionization model provides the simulation with additional electrons after the initial seeded electron density has drifted towards the anode. Comparison of the performance benefits between the GPU-implementation versus a CPU-implementation is considered, and a speed-up factor of 13 for a 3D relaxation Poisson solver is obtained. Furthermore, a factor 60 speed-up is realized for parallelization of the electron processes.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

CALIBRATED ULTRA FAST IMAGE SIMULATIONS FOR THE DARK ENERGY SURVEY

Image simulations are becoming increasingly important in understanding the measurement process of the shapes of galaxies for weak lensing and the associated systematic effects. For this purpose we present the first implementation of the Monte Carlo Control Loops (MCCL), a coherent framework for studying systematic effects in weak lensing. It allows us to model and calibrate the shear measurement process using image simulations from the Ultra Fast Image Generator (UFig) and the image analysis software SExtractor. We apply this framework to a subset of the data taken during the Science Verification period (SV) of the Dark Energy Survey (DES). We calibrate the UFig simulations to be statistically consistent with one of the SV images, which covers ∼0.5 square degrees. We then perform tolerance analyses by perturbing six simulation parameters and study their impact on the shear measurement at the one-point level. This allows us to determine the relative importance of different parameters. For spatially constant systematic errors and point-spread function, the calibration of the simulation reaches the weak lensing precision needed for the DES SV survey area. Furthermore, we find a sensitivity of the shear measurement to the intrinsic ellipticity distribution, and an interplay between the magnitude-size and the pixel value diagnostics in constraining the noise model. This work is the first application of the MCCL framework to data and shows how it can be used to methodically study the impact of systematics on the cosmic shear measurement.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A REDUCED ORDER MODELING APPROACH TO PROBABILISTIC CREEP-DAMAGE PREDICTIONS IN FINITE ELEMENT ANALYSIS

This paper introduces a computationally efficient Reduced Order Modeling (ROM) approach for the probabilistic prediction of creep-damage failure. Component-level probabilistic simulations are needed to assess the reliability and safety of high-temperature components. Full-scale probabilistic creep-damage modeling in finite element (FE) approach is computationally expensive requiring many hundreds of simulations to replicate the uncertainty of component failure. To that end, ROM is proposed to minimize the elevated computational cost while controlling the loss of accuracy. It is proposed that full-scale probabilistic simulations can be completed in 1D at a reduced cost, the extremum conditions extracted, and those conditions applied for lower-cost 2D/3D probabilistic simulations of components that capture the mean and uncertainty of failure. The probabilistic Sine-hyperbolic (Sinh) model is selected which in previous work was calibrated to alloy 304 stainless steel. The Sinh model includes probability density functions (pdfs) for test condition (stress and temperature), initial damage (i.e. microstructure), and material properties uncertainty. The Sinh model is programmed into ANSYS finite element software using the USERCREEP.F material subroutine. First, the Sinh model and FE code are subject to verification and validation to ensure the accuracy of the simulations. Numerous Monte Carlo simulations are executed in a 1D model to generate probabilistic creep deformation, damage, and rupture data. This data is analyzed and the probabilistic parameters corresponding to extreme creep response are extracted. The ROM concept is applied where only the extreme conditions are applied in the 2D probabilistic prediction of a component. The probabilistic predictions between the 1D and 2D geometry is compared to assess ROM for creep. The accuracy of the probabilistic prediction employing the ROM approach will potentially reduce the time and cost of simulating complex engineering systems. Future studies will introduce multi-stage Sinh, stochasticity, and spatial uncertainty for improved prediction.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗