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DOE OSTI2021

The development of rainfall retrievals from radar at Darwin

Abstract. The U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program Tropical Western Pacific site hosted a C-band polarization (CPOL) radar in Darwin, Australia. It provides 2 decades of tropical rainfall characteristics useful for validating global circulation models. Rainfall retrievals from radar assume characteristics about the droplet size distribution (DSD) that vary significantly. To minimize the uncertainty associated with DSD variability, new radar rainfall techniques use dual polarization and specific attenuation estimates. This study challenges the applicability of several specific attenuation and dual-polarization-based rainfall estimators in tropical settings using a 4-year archive of Darwin disdrometer datasets in conjunction with CPOL observations. This assessment is based on three metrics: statistical uncertainty estimates, principal component analysis (PCA), and comparisons of various retrievals from CPOL data. The PCA shows that the variability in R can be consistently attributed to reflectivity, but dependence on dual-polarization quantities was wavelength dependent for 1 10mmh-1. Rainfall estimates during these conditions primarily originate from deep convective clouds with median drop diameters greater than 1.5 mm. An uncertainty analysis and intercomparison with CPOL show that a Colorado State University blended technique for tropical oceans, with modified estimators developed from video disdrometer observations, is most appropriate for use in all cases, such as when 1 10mmh-1 (deeper convective rain).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Ship-based measurements of ice nuclei concentrations over the Arctic, Atlantic, Pacific and Southern oceans

Ambient concentrations of ice-forming particles measured during ship expeditions are collected and summarised with the aim of determining the spatial distribution and variability in ice nuclei in oceanic regions. The presented data from literature and previously unpublished data from over 23 months of ship-based measurements stretch from the Arctic to the Southern Ocean and include a circumnavigation of Antarctica. In comparison to continental observations, ship-based measurements of ambient ice nuclei show 1 to 2 orders of magnitude lower mean concentrations. To quantify the geographical variability in oceanic areas, the concentration range of potential ice nuclei in different climate zones is analysed by meridionally dividing the expedition tracks into tropical, temperate and polar climate zones. We find that concentrations of ice nuclei in these meridional zones follow temperature spectra with similar slopes but vary in absolute concentration. Typically, the frequency with which specific concentrations of ice nuclei are observed at a certain temperature follows a log-normal distribution. A consequence of the log-normal distribution is that the mean concentration is higher than the most frequently measured concentration. Finally, the potential contribution of ship exhaust to the measured ice nuclei concentration on board research vessels is analysed as function of temperature. We find a sharp onset of the influence at approximately -36 °C but none at warmer temperatures that could bias ship-based measurements.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Underestimation of multi-decadal global O 2 loss due to an optimal interpolation method

Abstract. The global ocean's oxygen content has declined significantly over the past several decades and is expected to continue decreasing under global warming, with far-reaching impacts on marine ecosystems and biogeochemical cycling. Determining the oxygen trend, its spatial pattern, and uncertainties from observations is fundamental to our understanding of the changing ocean environment. This study uses a suite of CMIP6 Earth system models to evaluate the biases and uncertainties in oxygen distribution and trends due to sampling sparseness. Model outputs are sub-sampled according to the spatial and temporal distribution of the historical shipboard measurements, and the data gaps are filled by a simple optimal interpolation method using Gaussian covariance with a constant e-folding length scale. Sub-sampled results are compared to full model output, revealing the biases in global and basin-wise oxygen content trends. The simple optimal interpolation underestimates the modeled global deoxygenation trends, capturing approximately two-thirds of the full model trends. The North Atlantic and subpolar North Pacific are relatively well sampled, and the simple optimal interpolation is capable of reconstructing more than 80 % of the oxygen trend in the non-eddying CMIP models. In contrast, pronounced biases are found in the equatorial oceans and the Southern Ocean, where the sampling density is relatively low. The application of the simple optimal interpolation method to the historical dataset estimated the global oxygen loss to be 1.5 % over the past 50 years. However, the ratio of the global oxygen trend between the sub-sampled and full model output has increased the estimated loss rate in the range of 1.7 % to 3.1 % over the past 50 years, which partially overlaps with previous studies. The approach taken in this study can provide a framework for the intercomparison of different statistical gap-filling methods to estimate oxygen content trends and their uncertainties due to sampling sparseness.

Ito, Takamitsu (ORCID:000000019873099X)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Observations of Aerosol, Cloud, Turbulence, and Radiation Properties at the Top of the Marine Boundary Layer over the Eastern North Atlantic Ocean: The ACORES Campaign

We report on the Azores Stratocumulus Measurements of Radiation, Turbulence and Aerosols (ACORES) campaign, which took place around Graciosa and Pico Islands/Azores in July 2017. The main objective was to investigate the vertical distribution of aerosol particles, stratocumulus microphysical and radiative properties, and turbulence parameters in the eastern North Atlantic. The vertical exchange of mass, momentum, and energy between the free troposphere (FT) and the cloudy marine boundary layer (MBL) was explored over a range of scales from submeters to kilometers. To cover these spatial scales with appropriate measurements, helicopter-borne observations with unprecedented high resolution were realized using the Airborne Cloud Turbulence Observation System (ACTOS) and Spectral Modular Airborne Radiation Measurement System–Helicopter-Borne Observations (SMART-HELIOS) instrumental payloads. Here, the helicopter-borne observations were combined with ground-based aerosol measurements collected at two continuously running field stations on Pico Mountain (2,225 m above sea level, in the FT), and at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) station on Graciosa (at sea level). First findings from the ACORES observations we are discussing in the paper are as follows: (i) we have observed a high variability of the turbulent cloud-top structure on horizontal scales below 100 m with local temperature gradients of up to 4 K over less than 1 m vertical distance, (ii) we have collected strictly collocated radiation measurements supporting the relevance of small-scale processes by revealing significant inhomogeneities in cloud-top brightness temperature to scales well below 100 m, and (iii) we have concluded that aerosol properties are completely different in the MBL and FT with often-complex stratification and frequently observed burst-like new particle formation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Analysis of natural gas bubble in NETL High Pressure Water Tunnel (HPWT) experiment and its application to natural seeps

Conference Presentation at the 9th International Symposium on Environmental Hydraulics. Analysis of natural gas bubbles under deep-ocean conditions, including hydrate armoring. Compares numerical simulations using the Texas A&M Oil spill / outfall Calculator (TAMOC) to data observed in the NETL High Pressure Water Tunnel. Also, presents simulations of natural seep bubbles in the oceans off the coast of Oregon with comparison to acoustic observations of natural gas seep flares.

Kim, Byungjin↗
DOE OSTI2020

Large contribution of organics to condensational growth and formation of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) in the remote marine boundary layer

Marine low clouds strongly influence global climate, and their radiative effects are particularly susceptible to the concentration of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). One major source of CCN is the condensational growth of pre-CCN particles, and sulfate has long been considered the major condensing species in the remote marine boundary layer. While some studies have suggested that secondary organic species can contribute to particle growth, its importance remains unclear. Here we present the first long-term observational evidence that organics play an important role in particle growth over remote oceans. To the contrary of traditional thinking, sulfate dominated condensational growth for only a small (~18 %) fraction of the 62 observed growth events, even fewer than the organic-dominated events (24 %). During most (58 %) growth events, the major condensing species included both organics and sulfate. Potential precursors of the secondary organics are volatile organic compounds from ocean biological activities and those produced by the air–sea interfacial oxidation. Our results indicate that the condensation of secondary organics contributes strongly to the growth of pre-CCN particles and thereby the CCN population over remote oceans.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

A U.S. Scientific Community Vision for Sustained Earth Observations of Greenhouse Gases to Support Local to Global Action

Managing carbon stocks in the land, ocean, and atmosphere under changing climate requires a globally‐integrated view of carbon cycle processes at local and regional scales. The growing Earth Observation (EO) record is the backbone of this multi‐scale system, providing local information with discrete coverage from surface measurements and regional information at global scale from satellites. Carbon flux information, anchored by inverse estimates from spaceborne Greenhouse Gas (GHG) concentrations, provides an important top‐down view of carbon emissions and sinks, but currently lacks global continuity at assessment and management scales (<100 km). Partial‐column data can help separate signals in the boundary layer from the overlying atmosphere, providing an opportunity to enhance surface sensitivity and bring flux resolution down from that of column‐integrated data (100–500 km). Based on a workshop held in September 2024, the carbon cycle community envisions a carbon observation system leveraging GHG partial columns in the lower and upper troposphere to weave together information across scales from surface and satellite EO data, and integration of top‐down/bottom‐up analyses to link process understanding to global assessment.

Parazoo, Nicholas C. [California Institute of Tech↗
DOE OSTI2024

Poleward Migration of the Latitude of Maximum Tropical Cyclone Intensity—Forced or Natural?

Abstract Past studies have shown a significant observed poleward trend in the latitude at which tropical cyclones reach their lifetime maximum intensity (LMI), especially in the northwest Pacific basin. Given the brevity of the historical record, it remains difficult to separate the forced trend from internal variability of the climate system. A recently developed tropical cyclone downscaling model is used to downscale the Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2), preindustrial control simulation. It is found that the observed trend in the latitude at which tropical cyclones reach their LMI in the northwest Pacific is very unlikely to be caused by internal variability. The same downscaling model is then used to downscale CESM2 simulations under historical forcing. The resulting trend distribution shows a significant poleward migration of tropical cyclone LMI even after regressing out both natural variability and the part of the forced warming pattern that projects onto natural variability. The results indicate that the observed poleward migration of the latitude at which tropical cyclones reach their LMI in the northwest Pacific basin is likely to be, at least in part, forced. However, the magnitude of the projected poleward trend in climate models can be significantly modulated by the simulated spatial pattern of ocean warming. This highlights how discrepancies between models and observations, with regard to projected changes to the equatorial zonal sea surface temperature gradient under anthropogenic forcing, can lead to large uncertainties in projected changes to the LMI latitude of tropical cyclones. Significance Statement Observations in the northwest Pacific basin show that the latitude at which tropical cyclones are at their most intense has been trending northward in the recent half century. These changes are important since tropical cyclones could bring hazardous weather to coastal areas that are poorly equipped to handle them. Here, we show that natural variations in Earth’s climate are very unlikely to explain the observed poleward trend in the latitude that tropical cyclone reach their maximum intensity. We find that it is much more likely that the observed trend is forced by human-related emissions, though the spatial pattern of warming in response to greenhouse emissions can have significant impacts on the magnitude of the trend.

Lin, Jonathan↗
DOE OSTI2022

Solid organic-coated ammonium sulfate particles at high relative humidity in the summertime Arctic atmosphere

The ability of atmospheric aerosols to impact climate through water uptake and cloud formation is fundamentally determined by the size, composition, and phase (liquid, semisolid, or solid) of individual particles. Particle phase is dependent on atmospheric conditions (relative humidity and temperature) and chemical composition and, importantly, solid particles can inhibit the uptake of water and other trace gases, even under humid conditions. Particles composed primarily of ammonium sulfate are presumed to be liquid at the relative humidities (67 to 98%) and temperatures (–2 to 4 °C) of the summertime Arctic. Under these atmospheric conditions, we report the observation of solid organic-coated ammonium sulfate particles representing 30% of particles, by number, in a key size range (<0.2 µm) for cloud activation within marine air masses from the Arctic Ocean at Utqiagvik, AK. The composition and size of the observed particles are consistent with recent Arctic modeling and observational results showing new particle formation and growth from dimethylsulfide oxidation to form sulfuric acid, reaction with ammonia, and condensation of marine biogenic sulfate and highly oxygenated organic molecules. Aqueous sulfate particles typically undergo efflorescence and solidify at relative humidities of less than 34%. Therefore, the observed solid phase is hypothesized to occur from contact efflorescence during collision of a newly formed Aitken mode sulfate particle with an organic-coated ammonium sulfate particle. With declining sea ice in the warming Arctic, this particle source is expected to increase with increasing open water and marine biogenic emissions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Stability Functions in the Stable Surface Layer Derived from the Mellor–Yamada–Nakanishi–Niino (MYNN) Scheme

It is desirable that a surface layer scheme in an atmospheric numerical model is consistent with an atmospheric boundary layer scheme incorporated in the same model. In this study, stability functions based on Monin–Obukhov similarity theory for momentum and heat, φ m and φ h , in the stable surface layer are derived from the Mellor–Yamada–Nakanishi–Niino (MYNN) scheme. The resulting stability functions are approximated by φ m = 1 + 4.8z/L and φ h = 0.74 + 6.0z/L, which can be analytically integrated with respect to height z to obtain momentum and heat fluxes, where L is the Obukhov length. The fluxes thus, obtained are compared with those acquired from stability functions in four previous studies: they are nearly the same as those from two of them, and show better agreement with observational data of the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean experiment (SHEBA) over sea ice than those from the other two studies. Detailed comparisons of the results of the MYNN scheme with the SHEBA data suggest that significant variations of the fluxes observed during “winter” when the ice was covered with dry snow may have been caused by those of the surface roughness around the observational site. The stability functions obtained from the MYNN scheme predict that the bulk and flux Richardson numbers approach critical values of 0.26 and 0.21, respectively, in the limit of z/L → ∞. These critical values result from the Kolmogorov hypothesis applied to the turbulent dissipation in the MYNN scheme and are considered to correspond to a transition from Kolmogorov to non-Kolmogorov turbulence.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Spatial mapping of dissolved methane using an in situ sensor in Puget Sound

Release of methane, as gas bubbles or in the dissolved phase, from the seafloor has been observed in coastal waters (< 200 m) and deep ocean basins (> 1000 m). Methane dissolution within the water column affects the geochemistry of the surrounding water, leading to localized oxygen loss and potential escape to the atmosphere, particularly from shallower sites. Traditional methods for detecting and quantifying dissolved methane rely on collecting discrete water samples for ship- or land-based ex situ analysis and post processing. Here, we report on the use of a reduced response time, in situ methane sensor, the Sensor for Aqueous Gases in the Environment (SAGE), for detecting and quantifying dissolved methane concentrations in a wide range of seafloor environments. During a Fall 2022 research cruise on the R/V Thomas G. Thompson in Puget Sound, SAGE was integrated onto a towed conductivity/temperature/depth rosette and deep-sea camera system with live-stream 1 Hz telemetry and used to spatially map the concentration of methane approximately 1 m above the seafloor. The site had been previously identified as an active methane plume field characterized by gas bubbles, fluid venting, and a faulted seabed. The widespread background dissolved concentration of methane measured by SAGE was 83 nM, and a range of 78–670 nM was observed throughout the survey. The results highlight the capacity of SAGE to map the spatial and temporal variability of dissolved methane concentrations in situ and to identify and localize sites of variable methane emissions from the seafloor.

Padilla, Alexandra M. [Woods Hole Oceanographic In↗
DOE OSTI2020

Potential Impacts of Assimilating All-sky Satellite Infrared Radiances on Convection-Permitting Analysis and Prediction of Tropical Convection

Geostationary infrared satellite observations are spatially dense [< 1/(20 km)2] and temporally frequent (< 1/hour). These suggest the possibility of using these observations to constrain sub-synoptic features over data sparse regions, such as tropical oceans. In this study, the potential impacts of assimilating water vapor channel brightness temperature (WV-BT) observations from the geostationary Meteorological Satellite 7 (Meteosat-7) on tropical convection analysis and prediction were systematically examined through a series of ensemble data assimilation experiments. WV-BT observations were assimilated hourly into convection-permitting ensembles using Penn State’s ensemble square root filter (EnSRF). Comparisons against independently observed Meteosat-7 window channel brightness temperature (Window-BT) show that the assimilation of WV-BT generally improved the intensities and locations of large-scale cloud patterns at spatial scales larger than 100 km. However, comparisons against independent soundings indicate that the EnSRF analysis produced a much stronger dry bias than the no data assimilation experiment. This strong dry bias is associated with the use of the simulated WV-BT from the prior mean during the EnSRF analysis step. A stochastic variant of the ensemble Kalman filter (NoMeanSF) is proposed. The NoMeanSF algorithm was able to assimilate the WV-BT without causing such a strong dry bias and the quality of the analyses’ horizontal cloud pattern is similar to EnSRF’s analyses. Finally, deterministic forecasts initiated from the NoMeanSF analyses possess better horizontal cloud patterns above 500 km than those of the EnSRF. These results suggest that it might be better to assimilate all-sky WV-BT through the NoMeanSF algorithm than EnSRF algorithm.

Chan, Man-Yau↗
DOE OSTI2026

Improving coastal water level estimation by merging nadir-only satellite altimetry data into a hydrodynamic model

Providing robust real time flood warnings is of paramount importance to coastal communities. Although state-of-the-art hydrodynamic models are capable of robustly predicting Coastal Water Levels (CWL), unresolved drivers affecting level fluctuations are often not represented by the model governing equations. This work evaluates a novel method to improve the performance of the ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) hydrodynamic model by assimilating observations from four nadir-only satellite altimetry missions against a set of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) gauge stations located across the entire U.S. East Coast. Two different types of simulations were performed – Open Loop (OL) and Data Assimilation (DA). Five different simulations were performed where four different satellite altimetry observations were assimilated individually and combined with two different scenarios – with and without considering the data quality flags. Results indicate that, despite their limited spatial coverage, merging nadir-only observations into ADCIRC from the newly launched Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT)’s nadir altimeter can improve the model performance at 76% of the gauge locations, whereas Sentinel-6 improves 73% of the total locations, Jason-3 74%, and SARAL 21%. Furthermore, combining observations from SWOT-nadir, Jason-3, and Sentinel-6 can improve the ADCIRC performance at more than 80% of the gauge locations for 107-day simulation. Nadir-only satellite altimetry observations can be useful for improving the model performance even if flagged as “poor quality” near the coast. When the flagged data are disregarded, SWOT can improve ADCIRC at 78%, Sentinel-6 at 73%, Jason-3 at 53%, and SARAL at 21% of the gauge locations. The ability to improve the model simulations largely depends on the availability of a satellite overpass nearby. Therefore, model performance can be further enhanced if satellite observations are available during a storm surge event, stressing the importance of frequent satellite overpasses.

Aafnan Bhuiyan, Soelem↗
DOE OSTI2025

Signatures of aerosol-cloud interactions in GiOcean: a coupled global reanalysis with two-moment cloud microphysics

Aerosols influence the Earth's radiative balance through direct interactions with radiation and by affecting cloud properties. Anthropogenic aerosols have led to cooling during the industrial era through aerosol–cloud interactions (ACI), including aerosol effects on cloud microphysical properties and the subsequent adjustments. However, large uncertainties remain in Earth system models (ESMs) regarding the magnitude of this cooling. In part, ESMs substantially disagree on cloud properties, thermodynamics, the hydrological cycle, and general circulation. Reanalysis provides a useful avenue for exploring the impact of ACI on clouds and radiation because its atmosphere is forced to match realistic conditions through the assimilation of observations. Here, we explore the impact of ACI on clouds in the GiOcean reanalysis – the first to incorporate aerosol-cloud interactions. We contrast variables important for ACI between GiOcean and satellite observations and develop 2-dimensional lookup tables of ACI for both using a source-sink budget perspective to attribute the changes in cloud droplet number (Nd) and liquid water path (LWP) to aerosol and meteorology. A compositing analysis using lookup tables shows that GiOcean captures key aspects of aerosol–cloud–precipitation interactions, including (1) activation of aerosol into cloud droplets, (2) effective precipitation scavenging of Nd, (3) suppression of precipitation by high Nd in regions with heavy aerosol emissions. In contrast, satellite observations do not exhibit clear patterns for processes (2) and (3). Random Forest analysis shows that interannual variability in Nd and LWP over the Northern Hemisphere ocean in GiOcean is primarily driven by precipitation, consistent with satellite observations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Oceanic fronts shape hemispheric contrasts in polar stratospheric extremes

Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSWs) and Polar Stratospheric Clouds (PSCs) exhibit striking inter-hemispheric asymmetries: SSWs are frequent in the Arctic but rare in the Antarctic, while PSCs are more persistent in the Antarctic. Although land–sea thermal contrast and orography (LSCO) have been traditionally invoked to explain these asymmetries, here we show using semi-idealized model experiments that even though LSCO strongly impacts the mean state of SSWs and PSCs, it alone cannot fully account for the observed differences. Using model experiments, we reveal that midlatitude oceanic sea surface temperature (SST) fronts represent a crucial supporting additional driver of the hemispheric stratospheric differences. Like LSCO, SST fronts enhance stratospheric convergence of resolved waves, strengthening the Brewer–Dobson Circulation and inducing high-latitude adiabatic warming. This warming significantly enhances Arctic SSW frequency and strongly suppresses PSC formation. Sub-grid-scale non–resolved wave forcing modulates the stratospheric resolved waves effect. The oceanic impact is dominated by North Pacific SST fronts. Our results highlight the indispensable role of SST fronts in shaping Arctic–Antarctic asymmetries in stratospheric dynamics and associated extremes.

Omrani, Nour-Eddine [Univ. of Bergen (Norway)] (OR↗
DOE OSTI2022

ENSO Diversity Simulated in a Revised Cane-Zebiak Model

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon features rich sea surface temperature (SST) spatial pattern variations dominated by the Central Pacific (CP) and Eastern Pacific (EP) patterns during its warm phase. Understanding such ENSO pattern diversity has been a subject under extensive research activity. To provide a framework for unveiling the fundamental dynamics of ENSO diversity, an intermediate coupled model based on the Cane-Zebiak-type framework, named RCZ, is established in this study. Compared with the original Cane-Zebiak model, RCZ consists of revised model formulation and well-tuned parameterization schemes. All model components are carefully validated against the observations via the standalone mode, in which the observed anomalous SST (wind stress) forcing is prescribed to drive the atmospheric (oceanic) component. The superiority of RCZ’s model components over those in the original Cane-Zebiak model is evidenced by their better performance in simulating the observations. Coupled simulation with RCZ satisfactorily reproduces aspects of the observed ENSO characteristics, including the spatial pattern, phase-locking, amplitude asymmetry, and, particularly, ENSO diversity/bi-modality. RCZ serves as a promising tool for studying dynamics of ENSO diversity as it resolves most of the relevant processes proposed in the literature, including atmospheric nonlinear convective heating, oceanic nonlinear dynamical heating, and the ENSO/westerly wind burst interaction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Closure of Earth’s Global Seasonal Cycle of Energy Storage

Abstract The global seasonal cycle of energy in Earth’s climate system is quantified using observations and reanalyses. After removing long-term trends, net energy entering and exiting the climate system at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) should agree with the sum of energy entering and exiting the ocean, atmosphere, land, and ice over the course of an average year. Achieving such a balanced budget with observations has been challenging. Disagreements have been attributed previously to sparse observations in the high-latitude oceans. However, limiting the local vertical integration of new global ocean heat content estimates to the depth to which seasonal heat energy is stored, rather than integrating to 2000 m everywhere as done previously, allows closure of the global seasonal energy budget within statistical uncertainties. The seasonal cycle of energy storage is largest in the ocean, peaking in April because ocean area is largest in the Southern Hemisphere and the ocean’s thermal inertia causes a lag with respect to the austral summer solstice. Seasonal cycles in energy storage in the atmosphere and land are smaller, but peak in July and September, respectively, because there is more land in the Northern Hemisphere, and the land has more thermal inertia than the atmosphere. Global seasonal energy storage by ice is small, so the atmosphere and land partially offset ocean energy storage in the global integral, with their sum matching time-integrated net global TOA energy fluxes over the seasonal cycle within uncertainties, and both peaking in April.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Biased Estimates of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity and Transient Climate Response Derived From Historical CMIP6 Simulations

Abstract This study assesses the effective climate sensitivity (EffCS) and transient climate response (TCR) derived from global energy budget constraints within historical simulations of eight CMIP6 global climate models (GCMs). These calculations are enabled by use of the Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP) simulations, which permit accurate quantification of the radiative forcing. Long‐term historical energy budget constraints generally underestimate EffCS from CO 2 quadrupling and TCR from CO 2 ramping, owing to changes in radiative feedbacks and changes in ocean heat uptake efficiency. Atmospheric GCMs forced by observed warming patterns produce lower values of EffCS that are more in line with those inferred from observed historical energy budget changes. The differences in the EffCS estimates from historical energy budget constraints of models and observations are traced to discrepancies between modeled and observed historical surface warming patterns.

Dong, Yue↗