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NASA NTRS2001

Publicly Available Numerical Codes for Modeling the X-ray and Microwave Emissions from Solar and Stellar Activity

We have posted numerical codes on the Web for modeling the bremsstrahlung x-ray emission and the a gyrosynchrotron radio emission from solar and stellar activity. In addition to radiation codes, steady-state and time-dependent Fokker-Planck codes are provided for computing the distribution and evolution of accelerated electrons. A 1-D hydrodynamics code computes the response of the stellar atmosphere (chromospheric evaporation). A code for modeling gamma-ray line spectra is also available. On-line documentation is provided for each code. These codes have been developed for modeling results from the High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager (HESSI) along related microwave observations of solar flares. Comprehensive codes for modeling images and spectra of solar flares are under development. The posted codes can be obtained on NASA/Goddard's HESSI Web Site at http://hesperia.gsfc.nasa.gov/hessi/modelware.htm. This work is supported in part by the NASA Sun-Earth Connection Program.

Holman, Gordon D.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Monitoring and decision making by people in man machine systems

The analysis of human monitoring and decision making behavior as well as its modeling are described. Classic and optimal control theoretical, monitoring models are surveyed. The relationship between attention allocation and eye movements is discussed. As an example of applications, the evaluation of predictor displays by means of the optimal control model is explained. Fault detection involving continuous signals and decision making behavior of a human operator engaged in fault diagnosis during different operation and maintenance situations are illustrated. Computer aided decision making is considered as a queueing problem. It is shown to what extent computer aids can be based on the state of human activity as measured by psychophysiological quantities. Finally, management information systems for different application areas are mentioned. The possibilities of mathematical modeling of human behavior in complex man machine systems are also critically assessed.

Johannsen, G.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Dynamic magneto-chiral instability in photoexcited tellurium

In systems of charged chiral fermions out of equilibrium, an electric current parallel to a magnetic field can generate a dynamic instability that amplifies electromagnetic waves. Whether this mechanism also operates in chiral solid-state systems has remained uncertain. Here we observe signatures of a dynamic magneto-chiral instability in elemental tellurium, a structurally chiral crystal, using time-domain terahertz emission spectroscopy. Under transient photoexcitation in a moderate magnetic field, we observe terahertz radiation with coherent modes that grow in amplitude over time. We present a theoretical model that describes this behaviour based on a dynamic instability of electromagnetic waves interacting with infrared-active oscillators of acceptor states in tellurium, giving rise to an amplifying polariton. These results demonstrate that magneto-chiral instabilities can emerge in solid-state systems and establish a mechanism for terahertz-wave amplification in chiral materials.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Cyber-Attack Detection for Active Neutral Point Clamped (ANPC) Photovoltaic (PV) Converter using Kalman Filter

With the upgrading of communication technology, cyber threats to power converters are increasing. In this paper, a model-based cyber-attack detection methodology is proposed for the interleaved Active neutral point clamped (ANPC) Photovoltaic (PV) converter. The proposed methodology identifies cyber-attacks using two estimations based on the Kalman filter and the state-space model of the ANPC PV converter. The residual between the two estimations is analyzed from a statistical perspective. Based on the Cumulative Sum (CUSUM) Control Chart, the standard errors shift of the residual is used to identify cyber-attacks. Besides, to validate the feasibility of the proposed methodology, several conditions are considered in the simulation, including white noise in the sensor, irradiance variation, and cyber-attacks in the PV converter. Furthermore, the simulation result demonstrates the proposed method can identify cyber-attacks in the ANPC PV converter.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Evaluating the Aftershock Duration of Induced Earthquakes

As the carbon sequestration community prepares to scale up the number and size of commercial operations, the need for tools and methods to assess and mitigate risks associated with these operations becomes increasingly important. One outstanding question is whether aftershocks of induced events decay quickly after injection operations cease or if aftershock activity persists for hundreds of years before returning to background levels more akin to tectonic events (Stein and Liu, 2009). Appropriate estimates of the aftershock duration impact several operational management decisions including mitigation strategies and post-injection monitoring for seismic activity. It is hypothesized that induced earthquake rates may diminish more quickly after injection is stopped, owing to higher stressing rates from injected fluids. Alternatively, it is plausible that only the first event in the sequence is induced by increased fluid overpressures, whereas subsequent events (e.g., aftershocks) respond to the stored tectonic stresses and static and dynamic stress changes due to the mainshock (Keranen et al., 2013). Further, if the aftershock duration can be linked to stressing rates due to injection, then it follows that operational strategies to reduce seismic hazard by reducing injection rates or volumes may be successful. However, if aftershocks of induced events are relieving stored tectonic stresses, then altering injection volumes may not alleviate ongoing seismic activity. Furthermore, knowledge of an aftershock duration could aid in the determination of an appropriate post-injection monitoring period for ongoing seismicity, which is a factor in overall operational costs. In this study, we model induced seismicity sequences in Oklahoma with a coupled Coulomb rate–state earthquake rate model (Dieterich, 1994; Kroll et al., 2017) to estimate aftershocks durations. Results for the current study indicate that elevated rates of aftershock activity following induced mainshocks return to background seismicity rates in less than five years, contrary to the tens to hundreds of years observed for tectonic aftershocks.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Free Energy and Flexibility Analysis of Autoinhibited Human BRAF

The RAF serine/threonine protein kinases function as direct effectors of RAS in the intracellular transmission of extracellular growth signals, and they are key targets for drug discovery, given the high incidence of oncogenic mutations in RAF and other components of this signaling pathway. In its inactive state, RAF is held in an autoinhibited conformation in the cytosol through a combination of intramolecular interactions and binding to a regulatory 14−3−3 protein dimer. Activation of RAF is initiated by its interaction with membrane-localized GTP-bound RAS, which induces conformational changes that release RAF from its autoinhibited state. However, the molecular mechanisms governing RAF activation remain incomplete, largely due to the challenges in experimentally capturing the intermediate conformational states in this process. To address this gap, we developed a comprehensive all-atom model of BRAF based on existing cryo-EM structures. Using this model, we performed extensive molecular dynamics simulations to evaluate the stability and free energy landscape of autoinhibited BRAF in solution. Our analysis reveals conformational flexibility within the autoinhibited complex, suggesting that this dynamic behavior may play a role in facilitating BRAF activation upon engagement with the membrane-bound RAS.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRS2008

ESMD Space Grant Faculty Report

The strength of the Exploration Systems Mission Directorate ESMD Faculty Project lies in its ability to meet National Aeronautics Space Administration NASA's Strategic Educational Outcome 1 by developing a sustainable and long-term integration of student involvement at academic institutions with all NASA Centers. This outcome is achieved by a three-fold approach: 1) by collecting Senior Design projects pertaining to Constellation work performed at each of the ten NASA Centers, 2) by engaging students at Minority Serving Institutions in the art of systems engineering and systems design of technologies required for space exploration, and 3) by identifying potential internships at each Center relative to exploration that provide students who are supported by their institutional Space Grant to engage in on-going mission-level and explorative systems designs. The objectives of the ESMD Faculty Project are to: 1. Aid the Centers (both Education Offices and associated technical organizations) in providing relevant opportunities for the ESMD Space Grant Program to support student and faculty in Senior Design projects 2. Enable better matches between the ESMD work required and what the Space Grant Consortia can do to effectively contribute to NASA programs 3. Provide the Space Grant Consortia an opportunity to strengthen relations with the NASA Centers 4. Develop better collective understanding of the U.S. Space Exploration Policy by the Center, Space Grant, faculty, Education Office, and students 5. Enable Space Grant institution faculty to better prepare their students to meet current and future NASA needs 6. Enable the Center Education Offices to strengthen their ties to their technical organizations and Space Grant Consortia 7. Aid KSC in gaining a greater and more detailed understanding of each of the Center activities Senior Design projects are intended to stimulate undergraduate students on current NASA activities related to lunar, Mars, and other planetary missions and to bring out innovative and novel ideas that can be used to complement those currently under development at respective NASA Centers. Additionally, such academic involvement would better the prospects for graduating seniors to pursue graduate studies and to seek careers in the space industry with a strong sense for systems engineering and understanding of design concepts. Internships, on the other hand, are intended to provide hands-on experience to students by engaging them in diverse state-of-the-art technology development, prototype bread-boarding, computer modeling and simulations, hardware and software testing, and other activities that provide students a strong perspective of NASA's vision and mission in enhancing the knowledge of Earth and space planetary sciences. Ten faculty members, each from a Space Grant Consortium-affiliated university, worked at ten NASA Centers for five weeks between June 2 and July 3, 2008. The project objectives listed above were achieved. In addition to collecting data on Senior Design ideas and identifying possible internships that would benefit NASA/ESMD, the faculty fellows promoted and collected data when required for other ESMD-funded programs and helped the Center's Education Office, as,needed. 4

Guo, Jiang↗

DOE OSTI2023

Latent bone modelling for estimation of plutonium concentration in skeleton of former nuclear workers

Abstract The skeleton is a major plutonium retention site in the human body. Estimation of the total plutonium activity in the skeleton is a challenging problem. For most tissue donors at the United States Transuranium and Uranium Registries, a limited number of bone samples is available. The skeleton activity is calculated using plutonium activity concentration (Cskel) and skeleton weight. In this study, latent bone modelling was used to estimate Cskel from the limited number of analysed bone samples. Data from 13 non-osteoporotic whole-body donors were used to develop latent bone model (LBM) to estimate Cskel for seven cases with four to eight analysed bone samples. LBM predictions were compared to Cskel estimated using an arithmetic mean in terms of accuracy and precision. For the studied cases, LBM offered a significant reduction of uncertainty of Cskel estimate.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

DOE OSTI2026

Active learning of a crystal plasticity flow rule from discrete dislocation dynamics simulations

Continuum-scale material deformation models, such as crystal plasticity (CP), can significantly enhance their predictive accuracy by incorporating input from lower-scale (i.e. mesoscale) models. The procedure to generate and extract the relevant information is however typically complex and ad hoc, involving decision and intervention by domain experts, leading to long development times. In this study, we develop a principled approach for calibration of continuum-scale models using lower scale information by representing a CP flow rule as a Gaussian process model. This representation allows for efficient parameter space exploration, guided by the uncertainty embedded in the model through a process known as Bayesian optimization (BO). We demonstrate a semi-autonomous BO loop which instantiates discrete dislocation dynamics simulations whose initial conditions are automatically chosen to optimize the uncertainty of a model CP flow rule. Our self-guided computational pipeline efficiently generated a dataset and corresponding model whose error, uncertainty, and physical feature sensitivities were validated with comparison to an independent dataset four times larger, demonstrating a valuable and efficient active learning implementation readily transferable to similar material systems.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS2011

NEWS Climatology Project: The State of the Water Cycle at Continental to Global Scales

NASA's Energy and Water Cycle Study (NEWS) program fosters collaborative research towards improved quantification and prediction of water and energy cycle consequences of climate change. In order to measure change, it is first necessary to describe current conditions. The goal of the NEWS Water and Energy Cycle Climatology project is to develop "state of the global water cycle" and "state of the global energy cycle" assessments based on data from modern ground and space based observing systems and data integrating models. The project is a multiinstitutional collaboration with more than 20 active contributors. This presentation will describe results of the first stage of the water budget analysis, whose goal was to characterize the current state of the water cycle on mean monthly, continental scales. We examine our success in closing the water budget within the expected uncertainty range and the effects of forcing budget closure as a method for refining individual flux estimates.

Rodell, Matthew↗

DOE OSTI2024

Exploring Climate-Disease Connections in Geopolitical Versus Ecological Regions: The Case of West Nile Virus in the United States

Many infectious disease forecasting models in the United States (US) are built with data partitioned into geopolitical regions centered on human activity as opposed to regions defined by natural ecosystems; although useful for data collection and intervention, this has the potential to mask biological relationships between the environment and disease. We explored this concept by analyzing the correlations between climate and West Nile virus (WNV) case data aggregated to geopolitical and ecological regions. We compared correlations between minimum, maximum, and mean annual temperature; precipitation; and annual WNV neuroinvasive disease (WNND) case data from 2005 to 2019 when partitioned into (a) climate regions defined by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and (b) Level I ecoregions defined by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). We found that correlations between climate and WNND in NOAA climate regions and EPA ecoregions were often contradictory in both direction and magnitude, with EPA ecoregions more often supporting previously established biological hypotheses and environmental dynamics underlying vector-borne disease transmission. Using ecological regions to examine the relationships between climate and disease cases can enhance the predictive power of forecasts at various scales, motivating a conceptual shift in large-scale analyses from geopolitical frameworks to more ecologically meaningful regions.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Emergence of Lanes and Turbulent-like Motion in Active Spinner Fluid

Assemblies of self-rotating particles are gaining interest as a novel realization of active matter with unique collective behaviors such as edge currents and non-trivial dynamic states. Here, we develop a continuum model for a system of fluid-embedded spinners by coarse-graining the equations of motion of the discrete particles. We apply the model to explore mixtures of clockwise and counterclockwise rotating spinners. We find that the dynamics is sensitive to fluid inertia: in the inertialess system, after transient turbulent-like motion the spinners segregate and form steady traffic lanes. At small but finite Reynolds number instead, the turbulent-like motion persists and the system exhibits a chirality breaking transition leading to a single rotation sense state. Our results shed light on the dynamic behavior of non-equilibrium materials exemplified by active spinners.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS1975

Planetary exploration - Earth's new horizon /Twelfth von Karman Lecture/

Planetary exploration is examined in terms of the interaction of technological growth with scientific progress and the intangibles associated with exploring the unknown. The field is limited to unmanned exploration of the planets and their satellites. A descriptive model of the endeavor, its activities and achievements in the past decade, a characterization of the current state of the art, and a look at some of the planetary mission opportunities for the next decade are presented. A case is made for the value to civilization of ongoing planetary exploration. The pioneering U.S. planetary explorers, Mars, Venus, and Jupiter, are discussed in the second part of the work. Launch velocity, navigation, the remote system, the earth base, and management technology are considered in the third part. Authorized near-term U.S. planetary projects and opportunities of the next decade are described in the last section.

Schurmeier, H. M.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Plan, formulate, discuss and correlate a NASTRAN finite element vibrations model of the Boeing Model 360 helicopter airframe

Boeing Helicopter, together with other United States helicopter manufacturers, participated in a finite element applications program to emplace in the United States a superior capability to utilize finite element analysis models in support of helicopter airframe design. The activities relating to planning and creating a finite element vibrations model of the Boeing Model 36-0 composite airframe are summarized, along with the subsequent analytical correlation with ground shake test data.

Gabel, R.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Dust transport into Martian polar latitudes

The presence of suspended dust in the Martian atmosphere, and its return to the planet's surface, is implicated in the formation of the polar layered terrain and the dichotomy in perennial CO2 polar cap retention in the two hemispheres. A three dimensional model was used to study Martian global dust storms. The model accounts for the interactive feedbacks between the atmospheric thermal and dynamical states and an evolving radiatively active suspended dust load. Results from dust storm experiments, as well as from simulations in which there is interest in identifying the conditions under which surface dust lifting occurs at various locations and times, indicate that dust transport due to atmospheric eddy motions is likely to be important in the arrival of suspended dust at polar latitudes. The layered terrain in both polar regions of Mars is interpreted as the reality of cyclical episodes of volatile (CO2, H2O) and dust deposition.

Murphy, J. R.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Addressing Dynamic Issues of Program Model Checking

Model checking real programs has recently become an active research area. Programs however exhibit two characteristics that make model checking difficult: the complexity of their state and the dynamic nature of many programs. Here we address both these issues within the context of the Java PathFinder (JPF) model checker. Firstly, we will show how the state of a Java program can be encoded efficiently and how this encoding can be exploited to improve model checking. Next we show how to use symmetry reductions to alleviate some of the problems introduced by the dynamic nature of Java programs. Lastly, we show how distributed model checking of a dynamic program can be achieved, and furthermore, how dynamic partitions of the state space can improve model checking. We support all our findings with results from applying these techniques within the JPF model checker.

Lerda, Flavio↗

DOE OSTI2024

Increasing aggregate size reduces single-cell organic carbon incorporation by hydrogel-embedded wetland microbes

Abstract Microbial degradation of organic carbon in sediments is impacted by the availability of oxygen and substrates for growth. To better understand how particle size and redox zonation impact microbial organic carbon incorporation, techniques that maintain spatial information are necessary to quantify elemental cycling at the microscale. In this study, we produced hydrogel microspheres of various diameters (100, 250, and 500 μm) and inoculated them with an aerobic heterotrophic bacterium isolated from a freshwater wetland (Flavobacterium sp.), and in a second experiment with a microbial community from an urban lacustrine wetland. The hydrogel-embedded microbial populations were incubated with 13C-labeled substrates to quantify organic carbon incorporation into biomass via nanoSIMS. Additionally, luminescent nanosensors enabled spatially explicit measurements of oxygen concentrations inside the microspheres. The experimental data were then incorporated into a reactive-transport model to project long-term steady-state conditions. Smaller (100 μm) particles exhibited the highest microbial cell-specific growth per volume, but also showed higher absolute activity near the surface compared to the larger particles (250 and 500 μm). The experimental results and computational models demonstrate that organic carbon availability was not high enough to allow steep oxygen gradients and as a result, all particle sizes remained well-oxygenated. Our study provides a foundational framework for future studies investigating spatially dependent microbial activity in aggregates using isotopically labeled substrates to quantify growth.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2010

Active Debris Removal - A Grand Engineering Challenge for the Twenty-First Century

The collision between Iridium 33 and Cosmos 2251 in 2009 underlined the potential of an ongoing collision cascade effect (the Kessler Syndrome ) in the near-Earth orbital debris environment. A 2006 NASA analysis of the instability of the debris population in the low Earth orbit (LEO, the region below 2000 km altitude) shows that the environment has reached a point where the debris population will continue to increase in the next 200 years, even without any future launches. The increase is driven by fragments generated via collisions among existing objects in LEO. In reality, the situation will be worse than this prediction because satellite launches will continue and unexpected major breakups may continue to occur. Mitigation measures commonly adopted by the international space community (such as the 25-year rule) will help, but will be insufficient to stop the population growth. To better preserve the near-Earth space environment for future generations, active debris removal (ADR) should be considered. The idea of active debris removal is not new. However, due to the monumental technical, resource, operational, legal, and political challenges associated with removing objects from orbit, it has not yet been widely considered feasible. The recent major breakup events and the environment modeling efforts have certainly reignited the interest in using active debris removal to remediate the environment. This trend is further highlighted by the National Space Policy of the United States of America, released by the White House in June 2010, where the President explicitly directs NASA and the Department of Defense to pursue research and development of technology and techniques, to mitigate and remove on-orbit debris, reduce hazards, and increase understanding of the current and future debris environment. A 2009 modeling study by the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office has shown that, in order to maintain the LEO debris population at a constant level for the next 200 years, an active debris removal of about five objects per year is needed. The targets identified for removal are those with the highest mass and collision probability products. Analyses from the study indicate that the majority of those objects are spent upper stages with masses ranging from 1 to more than 8 metric tons, residing in several altitude regions and concentrated in about 10 inclination bands. To remove five of those objects per year in a cost-effective manner truly represents a grand challenge in engineering and technology development. An end-to-end debris removal operation includes, in general terms, launches orbit rendezvous, precision tracking, stabilization (of the tumbling motion), capture, and deorbit of the targets. An ADR system deigned to remove a single object is not very cost-effective. Therefore, the repeatability of the removal system is almost a requirement. Some of the technologies involved in the ADR process do exist, but the difficulty is to make them more cost effective. Other technologies, such as ways to stabilize a massive tumbling upper stage and the capture mechanisms, are new and will require major innovative research and development efforts. This paper summarizes an updated assessment of the environment, including what needs to be done to control the population growth, and outlines the major engineering and technology challenges to carry out active debris removal to preserve the environment.

Liou, Jer-Chyi↗