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At least 289 records · Page 16

Life Cycle Cost Analysis of Prestressed Concrete Poles Subjected to Wind, Surges, and Waves

Prestressed concrete (PC) poles are becoming popular choices to support coastal power transmission systems. However, the existing literature does not offer a detailed analysis of the effectiveness of PC poles in terms of long-term vulnerabilities and the direct and indirect costs. This is due to (1) lack of fragility models for PC poles and (2) lack of probabilistic wind, storm surge, and wave models in coastal settings. In this study, we address these gaps through a series of Monte Carlo simulations to estimate fragility of PC poles as a function of age and hazard (wind, surges, and waves) intensity, and the development of a probabilistic hazard model based on 10,000 years of synthetic tropical cyclone data. The probabilistic hazard model is used in conjunction with high-resolution hydrodynamic models to generate realizations of coastal wind, storm surges, and waves for the Louisiana and Mississippi coasts. A comprehensive life cycle cost analysis for a service life of 70 years considering direct and indirect losses is conducted to compare the performance of a transmission line located in Pascagoula, Mississippi, when wood poles are replaced by PC poles. Results showed that aging has a minor effect on the reliability of PC poles, highlighting the advantages of replacing wood poles with PC poles, especially in coastal areas. In addition, PC poles are significantly more cost-effective compared with wood poles over their life cycle, leading to an estimated saving of $11.55 million (68.17% reduction). The results of this study provide key insight to inform decision-making processes to keep the coastal power grids resilient and cost-effective against future storm hazards.

natural disasters↗

Nonlinear global gyrokinetic delta- f turbulence simulations in a quasi-axisymmetric stellarator

We use the global gyrokinetic stellarator code XGC-S to look at turbulence physics in geometry of the proposed quasi-axisymmetric stellarator, QUASAR. In this article, the XGC-S code is first verified for nonlinear simulations of ion temperature gradient-driven turbulence by a successful benchmark with the established nonlinear tokamak code XGC1 in a CYCLONE-like tokamak case. We then apply the XGC-S code to QUASAR for nonlinear turbulence physics. We find that the highly poloidally localized linear mode gives way to a more evenly distributed nonlinear turbulent structure. Furthermore, the radial extent of the mode increases and occupies a large fraction of the volume, despite the initially localized temperature profile, as the profiles relax.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

A subgrid model for electron-scale turbulent transport in global ion-scale gyrokinetic simulations of tokamak plasmas

A subgrid electron–temperature–gradient (ETG) model is demonstrated here which averages local electron-scale turbulence over intermediate scales in space and time to include in global ion–temperature–gradient (ITG) simulations. This approach results in ion-scale equations, which incorporate the electron heat transport from ETG turbulence and the effects of electron-scale turbulence on the ion scale. Flux-tube ETG Cyclone Base Case simulations are performed at different radial locations and a kinetic form of the flux is added to global ion-scale (IS) simulations as a source term. Analytic radial profiles of ETG heat flux are constructed and compared to flux-tube results at multiple radial locations. Different ratios of ITG to ETG heat flux levels are considered and the results of capturing ETG heat transport in global ion-scale simulations are discussed. The potential coupling of the ETG streamer potential and intermediate-scale zonal flows to the ion scale is further addressed.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Saturation of the kinetic ballooning instability due to the electron parallel nonlinearity

The electron parallel nonlinearity (EPN) is implemented in the gyrokinetic particle-in-cell turbulence code GEM [Y. Chen and S. E. Parker, J. Comp. Phys. 220, 839 (2007)]. Application to the Cyclone Base Case reveals a strong effect of EPN on the saturated heat transport above the kinetic ballooning mode (KBM) threshold. Evidence is provided to show that the strong effect is associated with the electron radial motion due to magnetic fluttering, which turns fine structures of the KBM eigenmode in radius into fine structures in velocity and increases the magnitude of the EPN term in the kinetic equation.

Gyrokinetic simulations↗

Application of end-of-shift respirable crystalline silica monitoring to construction

A pilot project was conducted to determine the effect of common construction dusts as interferences in a new portable end-of-shift (EoS), direct-on-filter (DoF) sampling and analysis method for respirable crystalline silica (RCS), in this case, quartz. Construction dusts were prepared from plaster, drywall, cement and brick by grinding, aerosolizing, and collecting respirable dust with high flow rate cyclones. Filters were loaded with different levels of commercial α-quartz powder Min-u-Sil 5, and different levels of interfering dusts, singly and in combination. Samples were analyzed by Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy (FTIR). Good correlations were found between nominal quartz loading (0 µg, 25 µg, 50 µg, and 100 µg) adjusted for quartz in the interfering dust and FTIR absorbance alone and in the presence of all interfering dusts. The slopes of the correlations were similar whether the loading was quartz without interference, or with plaster, drywall, and cement dusts, regardless of quantity. The results show that (a) plaster and drywall dusts do not interfere substantially; (b) cement does not interfere, but a change in the intercept suggests an effect on the background absorbance of the filter; and (c) in addition to having a substantial quartz content, brick dust contains an additional material, probably a silicate mineral, which interferes with the quartz peak. Thus, the presence of cement leads to lower quartz values and brick leads to higher values, but overall, 83% of the quartz contents predicted from the calibration data agreed within 50% of the adjusted nominal loadings within the range 20–110 µg. This result is encouraging given the high levels of interfering dusts. Nine samples loaded with smaller amounts of all four dusts together gave results within 25% of the adjusted nominal loadings. A single mixture addition of the dusts to the filter gave tighter variance in results than sequential additions. Unexpectedly, the two Certified Reference Materials (CRMs) 1878a and 1878b, gave different results when used to calibrate XRD analysis of Min-u-Sil 5.

42 ENGINEERING↗

An FPGA-based readout chip emulator for the CMS ETL detector upgrade

Here, we present an FPGA-based readout chip emulator board for the CMS Endcap Timing Layer (ETL) detector upgrade. The emulator board uses an Intel Cyclone 10 GX FPGA to emulate the digital functions of four Endcap Layer Readout Chips (ETROCs). Based on the actual ETROC design, the firmware is implemented and verified. The emulator board is being used for the ETROC digital design verification and system development.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Examining future changes in coastal low-level jet properties offshore California through dynamical downscaling

The coastal low-level jet, or coastal low-level jet (CLLJ), is a synoptically-forced meteorological feature frequently present offshore the western United States (U.S.). Characterized by a wind speed maximum that resides at the top of the marine boundary layer, the CLLJ is largely controlled by the location and strength of the North Pacific High (NPH) as well as the coastal geometry. Considering the rich wind resource available in this offshore region, the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management identified wind energy lease areas offshore California and supported the deployment of two U.S. Department of Energy wind lidar buoys near Morro Bay and Humboldt. Despite our relatively good understanding of the fundamental mechanisms responsible for large-scale CLLJ properties offshore the western U.S., future changes in CLLJ characteristics are less clear. To address this research challenge, and ultimately to better inform future wind turbine deployments, we use simulations driven by three global climate models (GCMs). We apply self-organizing maps to the model outputs for a historical and two future climate periods to show the range of NPH regimes that support CLLJ conditions during the warm seasons, as well as the subtle contribution from land-falling cyclones approaching the mainland during the cold seasons. Compared to the historical period, the three GCM-driven simulations agree that CLLJ conditions will become more (less) prevalent from central California northward (southward). They agree less with respect to future changes in maximum CLLJ wind speeds and CLLJ heights. However, after considering model biases present during the historical period, wind speeds between the models are actually more similar during the 2070–2095 period than during the historical period. The potential combination of more frequent CLLJ conditions characterized by relatively consistent wind speeds occurring at lower heights across northern California suggests that the Humboldt lease area may be ideal for a long-term wind turbine deployment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Multilevel Robustness for 2D Vector Field Feature Tracking, Selection and Comparison

Abstract Critical point tracking is a core topic in scientific visualization for understanding the dynamic behaviour of time‐varying vector field data. The topological notion of robustness has been introduced recently to quantify the structural stability of critical points, that is, the robustness of a critical point is the minimum amount of perturbation to the vector field necessary to cancel it. A theoretical basis has been established previously that relates critical point tracking with the notion of robustness, in particular, critical points could be tracked based on their closeness in stability, measured by robustness, instead of just distance proximity within the domain. However, in practice, the computation of classic robustness may produce artifacts when a critical point is close to the boundary of the domain; thus, we do not have a complete picture of the vector field behaviour within its local neighbourhood. To alleviate these issues, we introduce a multilevel robustness framework for the study of 2D time‐varying vector fields. We compute the robustness of critical points across varying neighbourhoods to capture the multiscale nature of the data and to mitigate the boundary effect suffered by the classic robustness computation. We demonstrate via experiments that such a new notion of robustness can be combined seamlessly with existing feature tracking algorithms to improve the visual interpretability of vector fields in terms of feature tracking, selection and comparison for large‐scale scientific simulations. We observe, for the first time, that the minimum multilevel robustness is highly correlated with physical quantities used by domain scientists in studying a real‐world tropical cyclone dataset. Such an observation helps to increase the physical interpretability of robustness.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Tree crown damage and its effects on forest carbon cycling in a tropical forest

Abstract Crown damage can account for over 23% of canopy biomass turnover in tropical forests and is a strong predictor of tree mortality; yet, it is not typically represented in vegetation models. We incorporate crown damage into the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES), to evaluate how lags between damage and tree recovery or death alter demographic rates and patterns of carbon turnover. We represent crown damage as a reduction in a tree's crown area and leaf and branch biomass, and allow associated variation in the ratio of aboveground to belowground plant tissue. We compare simulations with crown damage to simulations with equivalent instant increases in mortality and benchmark results against data from Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama. In FATES, crown damage causes decreases in growth rates that match observations from BCI. Crown damage leads to increases in carbon starvation mortality in FATES, but only in configurations with high root respiration and decreases in carbon storage following damage. Crown damage also alters competitive dynamics, as plant functional types that can recover from crown damage outcompete those that cannot. This is a first exploration of the trade‐off between the additional complexity of the novel crown damage module and improved predictive capabilities. At BCI, a tropical forest that does not experience high levels of disturbance, both the crown damage simulations and simulations with equivalent increases in mortality does a reasonable job of capturing observations. The crown damage module provides functionality for exploring dynamics in forests with more extreme disturbances such as cyclones and for capturing the synergistic effects of disturbances that overlap in space and time.

Needham, Jessica F.↗

Multiple Changepoint Detection for Non‐Gaussian Time Series

ABSTRACT This article combines methods from existing techniques to identify multiple changepoints in non‐Gaussian autocorrelated time series. A transformation is used to convert a Gaussian series into a non‐Gaussian series, enabling penalized likelihood methods to handle non‐Gaussian scenarios. When the marginal distribution of the data is continuous, the methods essentially reduce to the change of variables formula for probability densities. When the marginal distribution is count‐oriented, Hermite expansions and particle filtering techniques are used to quantify the scenario. Simulations demonstrating the efficacy of the methods are given and two data sets are analyzed: 1) the proportion of home runs hit by Major League Baseball batters from 1920 to 2023 and 2) a six‐dimensional series of tropical cyclone counts from the Earth's basins of generation from 1980 to 2023. In the first series, beta marginal distributions are used to describe the proportions; in the second, Poisson marginal distributions seem appropriate.

Lund, Robert [Department of Statistics University ↗

Recovery of Oxpure 612C-50 Coconut Carbon Particles Using Bump Arrays

Cyanide is used to leach gold from crushed ore (solid matrix) into a gold cyanide solution. The gold is extracted from the cyanide solution by adsorption onto activated carbon. The gold extraction process occurs when the activated coconut carbon is placed into tanks that contain the gold cyanide solution either in a batch process or into a continuous flow circuit. The coconut carbon is then removed from the solution for gold recovery. The use of the mesofluidic separation system (a deterministic lateral displacement system) can significantly reduce costs and waste generated from the process of removing the coconut carbon from the solution. In the coconut carbon recovery process used at many gold mines in Nevada, the gold is attached to carbon particles that are still in the cyanide liquor. The mesofluidic system can rapidly remove the gold bearing carbon particles from the cyanide liquor quickly and with no operating costs. The benefits include: • Reduce operational costs related to filtration and hydro-cyclones • Reduced acid usage for the elution gold stripping phase as only 25% of the fluids will follow the carbon particles to the final express lane when two mesofluidic systems are used in series This alternative particle removal techniques would be advantageous. A promising technique for removing larger particles from slurries is mesofluidic separation, similar to deterministic lateral displacement arrays or “bump” arrays [1] but operates at much larger flow rates. As described by Pease, et al. [2], “Bump arrays in deterministic lateral displacement devices separate large particles from small particles using arrays of staggered posts. Large particles, defined as those with radii larger than the distance between the edge of a post and the stagnation streamline from the next downstream post, must bump toward one side of the device, whereas particles smaller than this distance slalom from entrance to exit without net lateral displacement.” Unlike filters or sieves, the posts in the arrays that cause separation do not block or occlude particle flow but work because particles go around the posts. Unlike hydrocyclones separation, separation is not driven by particle density, because gravitational forces are unimportant to mesofluidic separation. Burns, et al., and Pease, et al., have shown that particles may be separated from complex suspensions, under turbulent flow conditions, and at industrially important flow rates [3-5]. They have also recently shown that mesofluidic devices may be arranged in series to increase separation performance [6]. In this paper, we evaluate the mesofluidic system for the separation of commercial OxPure GR 612 Charred Coconut shell particles as a proof of principle test for the rapid separation using the 1500 micron cut mesofluidic separator. We first describe the experimental system and conditions. We then present the experimental results. [1] Huang, L.R., E.C. Cox, R.H. Austin, J.C. Sturm. 2004. Continuous particle separation through deterministic lateral displacement. Science, 304, 987–990. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1094567. [2] Pease L.F., J.A. Bamberger, C.A. Burns, and M.J. Minette. 2021. Large Particle Separation from Non-Newtonian Slurries using Bump Arrays. In Proceedings of the ASME 2021 Fluids Engineering Division Summer Meeting FEDSM2021-65904, V003T08A023. New York, New York: ASME. doi:10.1115/FEDSM2021-65904 [3] Burns C.A., T.G. Veldman, J. Serkowski, R.C. Daniel, X.-Y. Yu, M.J. Minette, L.F. Pease. 2021. Mesofluidic separation versus dead-end filtration. Separation and Purification Technology, 254, 117256. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.seppur.2020.117256. [4] Pease L.F., J.E. Serkowski, T.G. Veldman, J. Williams, X.-Y. Yu, M.J. Minette, J.A. Bamberger, C.A. Burns. 2021. Can Bump Arrays Separate Particles from Turbulent Flows?. In Proceedings of the ASME 2021 Fluids Engineering Division Summer Meeting FEDSM2021-67696, V003T08A024. New York, New York: ASME. doi:10.11

mesofluidic separation, slurry, bump array↗

Increased U.S. coastal hurricane risk under climate change

Several pathways for how climate change may influence the U.S. coastal hurricane risk have been proposed, but the physical mechanisms and possible connections between various pathways remain unclear. Here, future projections of hurricane activity (1980–2100), downscaled from multiple climate models using a synthetic hurricane model, show an enhanced hurricane frequency for the Gulf and lower East coast regions. The increase in coastal hurricane frequency is driven primarily by changes in steering flow, which can be attributed to the development of an upper-level cyclonic circulation over the western Atlantic. The latter is part of the baroclinic stationary Rossby waves forced mainly by increased diabatic heating in the eastern tropical Pacific, a robust signal across the multimodel ensemble. Last, these heating changes also play a key role in decreasing wind shear near the U.S. coast, further aggravating coastal hurricane risk enhanced by the physically connected steering flow changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

North Pacific meridional mode has larger impacts on El Niño evolution than the March Madden-Julian Oscillation

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a key driver of global climate variability. Early-season westerly wind bursts (WWBs) have long been suggested to be important for ENSO evolution and diversity, with the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) among the main sources of WWBs. However, MJO’s contribution to ENSO evolution has been difficult to quantify. Here, using an ensemble hindcast approach specifically designed to isolate internal atmospheric variability, we evaluate the influences of March MJO on subsequent ENSO development. Our results show that the March MJO, under favorable background conditions, by itself has limited impacts on ENSO due to weak equatorial air-sea coupling in spring. In comparison, the North Pacific Oscillation–induced meridional mode exerts a more sustained influence on ENSO evolution. A cyclonic circulation anomaly over Hawaii, associated with the Pacific-North American pattern, also plays a role. These findings suggest that March MJO activity alone may not be a reliable predictor for ENSO evolution, but underscore the importance of North Pacific atmospheric variability.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

Detection of Airborne Influenza A and SARS-CoV-2 Virus Shedding following Ocular Inoculation of Ferrets

Despite reports of confirmed human infection following ocular exposure with both influenza A virus (IAV) and SARS-CoV-2, the dynamics of virus spread throughout oculonasal tissues and the relative capacity of virus transmission following ocular inoculation remain poorly understood. Furthermore, the impact of exposure route on subsequent release of airborne viral particles into the air has not been examined previously. To assess this, ferrets were inoculated by the ocular route with A(H1N1)pdm09 and A(H7N9) IAVs and two SARS-CoV-2 (early pandemic Washington/1 and Delta variant) viruses. Virus replication was assessed in both respiratory and ocular specimens, and transmission was evaluated in direct contact or respiratory droplet settings. Viral RNA in aerosols shed by inoculated ferrets was quantified with a two-stage cyclone aerosol sampler (National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health [NIOSH]). All IAV and SARS-CoV-2 viruses mounted a productive and transmissible infection in ferrets following ocular inoculation, with peak viral titers and release of virus-laden aerosols from ferrets indistinguishable from those from ferrets inoculated by previously characterized intranasal inoculation methods. Viral RNA was detected in ferret conjunctival washes from all viruses examined, though infectious virus in this specimen was recovered only following IAV inoculation. Low-dose ocular-only aerosol exposure or inhalation aerosol exposure of ferrets to IAV similarly led to productive infection of ferrets and shedding of aerosolized virus. Viral evolution during infection was comparable between all inoculation routes examined. Furthermore, these data support that both IAV and SARS-CoV-2 can establish a high-titer mammalian infection following ocular exposure that is associated with rapid detection of virus-laden aerosols shed by inoculated animals.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Reducing Southern Ocean Shortwave Radiation Errors in the ERA5 Reanalysis with Machine Learning and 25 Years of Surface Observations

Earth system models struggle to simulate clouds and their radiative effects over the Southern Ocean, partly due to a lack of measurements and targeted cloud microphysics knowledge. We have evaluated biases of downwelling shortwave radiation in the ERA5 climate reanalysis using 25 years (1995–2019) of summertime surface measurements, collected on the Research and Supply Vessel (RSV) Aurora Australis, the Research Vessel (R/V) Investigator, and at Macquarie Island. During October–March daylight hours, the ERA5 simulation of SW down exhibited large errors (mean bias = 54 W m -2 , mean absolute error = 82 W m -2 , root-mean-square error = 132 W m -2 , and R 2 = 0.71). To determine whether we could improve these statistics, we bypassed ERA5’s radiative transfer model for SW down with machine learning–based models using a number of ERA5’s gridscale meteorological variables as predictors. These models were trained and tested with the surface measurements of SW down using a 10-fold shuffle split. An extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) and a random forest–based model setup had the best performance relative to ERA5, both with a near complete reduction of the mean bias error, a decrease in the mean absolute error and root-mean-square error by 25% ± 3%, and an increase in the R 2 value of 5% ± 1% over the 10 splits. Large improvements occurred at higher latitudes and cyclone cold sectors, where ERA5 performed most poorly. We further interpret our methods using Shapley additive explanations. Our results indicate that data-driven techniques could have an important role in simulating surface radiation fluxes and in improving reanalysis products.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Observations of Clouds, Aerosols, Precipitation, and Surface Radiation over the Southern Ocean: An Overview of CAPRICORN, MARCUS, MICRE, and SOCRATES

Weather and climate models are challenged by uncertainties and biases in simulating Southern Ocean (SO) radiative fluxes that trace to a poor understanding of cloud, aerosol, precipitation, and radiative processes, and their interactions. Projects between 2016 and 2018 used in situ probes, radar, lidar, and other instruments to make comprehensive measurements of thermodynamics, surface radiation, cloud, precipitation, aerosol, cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), and ice nucleating particles over the SO cold waters, and in ubiquitous liquid and mixed-phase clouds common to this pristine environment. Data including soundings were collected from the NSF–NCAR G-V aircraft flying north–south gradients south of Tasmania, at Macquarie Island, and on the R/V Investigator and RSV Aurora Australis. Synergistically these data characterize boundary layer and free troposphere environmental properties, and represent the most comprehensive data of this type available south of the oceanic polar front, in the cold sector of SO cyclones, and across seasons. Results show largely pristine environments with numerous small and few large aerosols above cloud, suggesting new particle formation and limited long-range transport from continents, high variability in CCN and cloud droplet concentrations, and ubiquitous supercooled water in thin, multilayered clouds, often with small-scale generating cells near cloud top. These observations demonstrate how cloud properties depend on aerosols while highlighting the importance of dynamics and turbulence that likely drive heterogeneity of cloud phase. Satellite retrievals confirmed low clouds were responsible for radiation biases. Furthermore, the combination of models and observations is examining how aerosols and meteorology couple to control SO water and energy budgets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Effective Visualization of Radar Data for Users Impacted by Color Vision Deficiency

Color vision deficiency (CVD) is a decreased ability to discern between particular colors. Eight percent of genetic males and half a percent of genetic females have some form of CVD, with many in the radar community falling into this group. When presenting data on a two-dimensional plane, it is common to use colors to represent values via a colormap. Colormap choice in the radar community is influenced by the ability to highlight scientifically interesting features in data, institutional choices, and domain dominance of legacy colormaps. The problem with these current colormaps is that many do not project well for those with CVD (i.e., green next to red). In working with the CVD community to address this problem, multiple colormaps for moments such as equivalent reflectivity factor and Doppler velocity were created for users with forms of CVD such as deuteranomaly, protanomaly, protanopia, and deuteranopia using Python tools such as colorspacious and viscm. We show how these colormaps can improve interpretability for four cases: a mesoscale convective system, a pyrocumulonimbus storm, a wintertime midlatitude cyclone, and widespread storms with a large bird migration. These new radar equivalent reflectivity factor, Doppler velocity, and polarization colormaps are designed to highlight rain, frozen precipitation, nonmeteorological targets, and velocity-based items, are perceptually uniform, and are visually friendly for those with CVD.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Global Precipitation Experiment—A New World Climate Research Programme Lighthouse Activity

The future state of the global water cycle and the prediction of freshwater availability for humans around the world remain among the challenges of climate research and are relevant to several United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. The Global Precipitation Experiment (GPEX) takes on the challenge of improving the prediction of precipitation quantity, phase, timing, and intensity, characteristics that are products of a complex integrated system. It will achieve this by leveraging existing World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) activities and community capabilities in satellite, surface-based, and airborne observations, modeling, and experimental research and by conducting new and focused activities. It was launched in October 2023 as a WCRP Lighthouse Activity. Here, we present an overview of the GPEX Science Plan that articulates the primary science questions related to precipitation measurements, process understanding, model performance and improvements, and plans for capacity development. The central phase of GPEX is the WCRP Years of Precipitation for 2–3 years with coordinated global field campaigns focusing on different storm types (atmospheric rivers, mesoscale convective systems, monsoons, and tropical cyclones, among others) over different regions and seasons. Activities are planned over the three phases (before, during, and after the Years of Precipitation) spanning a decade. These include gridded data evaluation and development, advanced modeling, enhanced understanding of processes critical to precipitation, multiscale prediction of precipitation events across scales, and capacity development. These activities will be further developed as part of the GPEX Implementation Plan.

Climate change↗