Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Cost Trends”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 289 records · Page 16
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1996

Nickel-Hydrogen Batteries - An Overview

This article on nickel-hydrogen batteries is an overview of the various nickel-hydrogen battery design options, technical accomplishments, validation test results, and trends. There is more than one nickel-hydrogen battery design, each having its advantage for specific applications. The major battery designs are Individual Pressure Vessel (IPV), Common Pressure Vessel (CPV), bipolar, and low-pressure metal hydride. State-of-the-art nickel-hydrogen batteries are replacing nickel-cadmium batteries in almost all geosynchronous Earth orbit applications requiring power above 1 kW. However, for the more severe Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) applications (greater than 30,000 cycles), the current cycle life of 4000-10,000 cycles at 60 - 80 % DOD should be improved. A NASA Lewis Research Center innovative advanced design IPV nickel-hydrogen cell led to a breakthrough in cycle life enabling LEO applications at deep Depths of Discharge (DOD). A trend for some future satellites is to increase the power level to greater than 6 kW. Another trend is to decrease the power to less than 1 kW for small low-cost satellites. Hence, the challenge is to reduce battery mass, volume, and cost. A key is to develop a lightweight nickel electrode and alternate battery designs. A CPV nickel-hydrogen battery is emerging as a viable alternative to the IPV design. It has the advantage of reduced mass, volume, and manufacturing costs. A 10-A-h CPV battery has successfully provided power on the relatively short-lived Clementine spacecraft. A bipolar nickel -hydrogen battery design has been demonstrated (15,000 LEO cycles, 40 % DOD). The advantage is also a significant reduction in volume, a modest reduction in mass, and like most bipolar designs, features a high-pulse power capability. A low-pressure aerospace nickel-metal-hydride battery cell has been developed and is on the market. It is a prismatic design that has the advantage of a significant reduction in volume and a reduction in manufacturing cost.

Smithrick, John J.↗
NASA NTRS2021

One- and Two-Band Sensors and Algorithms to Derive aCDOM(440) from Global Above- and In-Water Optical Observations

The colored (or chromophoric, depending on the literature) dissolved organic matter (CDOM) spectral absorption coefficient, aCDOM(λ), is a variable of global interest that has broad application in the study of biogeochemical processes. Within the funding for scientific research, there is an overarching trend towards increasing the scale of observations both temporally and spatially, while simultaneously reducing the cost per sample, driving a systemic shift towards autonomous sensors and observations. Legacy aCDOM(λ) measurement techniques can be cost-prohibitive and do not lend themselves toward autonomous systems. Spectrally rich datasets carefully collected with advanced optical systems in diverse locations that span a global range of water bodies, in conjunction with appropriate quality assurance and processing, allow for the analysis of methods and algorithms to estimate aCDOM(440) from spectrally constrained one- and two-band subsets of the data. The resulting algorithms were evaluated with respect to established fit-for-purpose criteria as well as quality assured archival data. Existing and proposed optical sensors capable of exploiting the algorithms and intended for autonomous platforms are identified and discussed. One-band in-water algorithms and two-band above-water algorithms showed the most promise for practical use (accuracy of 3.0% and 6.5%, respectively), with the latter demonstrated for an airborne dataset.

ocean color↗
DOE OSTI2022

Optimizing group structures using hierarchical division

Creating group structures with few groups that give low errors is a difficult problem in reactor analysis. In recent years, automated optimization techniques have been applied to this task. We continue this trend by applying the hierarchical division algorithm to generate optimized group structures that minimize a cost function. At each stage, the algorithm adds a single group boundary to an existing group structure, dividing one group into two to increase the resolution of the group structure. The location of the added boundary is the one that gives the lowest error over all possible new boundary locations. Our implementation requires a beginning group structure, a set of candidate new boundary locations, and a set of reference reaction rates. As a proof of concept, we used WIMS-69 as the initial group structure, XMAS-172 as the ending group structures, and a 344-group reference group structure. Testing on two simple, homogenized reactor problems, we found that hierarchical division was able to reduce the error by a factor of around 5 with an increase of only 15% in the number of groups. Because hierarchical division can get stuck in local minima, it often reaches a plateau in its error reduction capability as many groups are added. Nevertheless, we find hierarchical division has strong potential to make good group structures into great group structures at a modest increase in computational cost. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
NASA NTRS2005

The Effect of Infrastructure Sharing in Estimating Operations Cost of Future Space Transportation Systems

NASA and the aerospace industry are extremely serious about reducing the cost and improving the performance of launch vehicles both manned or unmanned. In the aerospace industry, sharing infrastructure for manufacturing more than one type spacecraft is becoming a trend to achieve economy of scale. An example is the Boeing Decatur facility where both Delta II and Delta IV launch vehicles are made. The author is not sure how Boeing estimates the costs of each spacecraft made in the same facility. Regardless of how a contractor estimates the cost, NASA in its popular cost estimating tool, NASA Air force Cost Modeling (NAFCOM) has to have a method built in to account for the effect of infrastructure sharing. Since there is no provision in the most recent version of NAFCOM2002 to take care of this, it has been found by the Engineering Cost Community at MSFC that the tool overestimates the manufacturing cost by as much as 30%. Therefore, the objective of this study is to develop a methodology to assess the impact of infrastructure sharing so that better operations cost estimates may be made.

Sundaram, Meenakshi↗
NASA NTRS1991

COSTMODL: An automated software development cost estimation tool

The cost of developing computer software continues to consume an increasing portion of many organizations' total budgets, both in the public and private sector. As this trend develops, the capability to produce reliable estimates of the effort and schedule required to develop a candidate software product takes on increasing importance. The COSTMODL program was developed to provide an in-house capability to perform development cost estimates for NASA software projects. COSTMODL is an automated software development cost estimation tool which incorporates five cost estimation algorithms including the latest models for the Ada language and incrementally developed products. The principal characteristic which sets COSTMODL apart from other software cost estimation programs is its capacity to be completely customized to a particular environment. The estimation equations can be recalibrated to reflect the programmer productivity characteristics demonstrated by the user's organization, and the set of significant factors which effect software development costs can be customized to reflect any unique properties of the user's development environment. Careful use of a capability such as COSTMODL can significantly reduce the risk of cost overruns and failed projects.

Roush, George B.↗
DOE OSTI2021

U.S. Renewables Portfolio Standards 2021 Status Update: Early Release

Berkeley Lab’s annual status report on U.S. renewables portfolio standards (RPS) provides an overview of key trends associated with U.S. state RPS policies. The report, published in slide-deck form, describes recent legislative revisions, key policy design features, compliance with interim targets, past and projected impacts on renewables development, and compliance costs. The 2021 Early Release, published in lieu of a 2020 edition, presents historical data through year-end 2019, with some limited results for the year 2020. Key trends from this edition of the report include the following: Evolution of state RPS programs: States continue to refine and revise their RPS policies. Among other significant changes since the start of 2019, eight states enacted higher RPS targets or created new clean-energy/zero-carbon targets (AZ, DC, MD, NM, NV, VA, WA), in most cases setting targets equal to at least 50% of retail sales. Historical impacts on renewables development: Roughly half of all growth in U.S. renewable electricity (RE) generation and capacity since 2000 is associated with state RPS requirements, though that percentage has declined in recent years, representing 23% of all U.S. RE capacity additions in 2019. However, within particular regions-namely, the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic-RPS policies continue to serve a central role in motivating RE growth. Future RPS demand and incremental needs: RPS demand growth through 2030 will require roughly 90 GW of new RE capacity and will require total U.S. non-hydro RE generation to reach 17% of electricity sales (compared to 12% in 2019). Relative to EIA projections, this amounts to roughly one-third of projected RE growth over the next decade. RPS target achievement to-date: States have generally met their interim RPS targets in recent years, with only a few exceptions reflecting unique, state-specific issues. REC pricing trends: Prices for NEPOOL Class I RECs rose steeply over 2019, reaching $40/MWh and remaining at roughly that level over 2020. PJM Tier I REC prices continued to rise at a modest pace over the course of 2020, reaching $10/MWh by year-end. Prices for solar RECs remained relatively stable over 2020, and continue to exhibit wide variation across states, with the highest prices ($200-450/MWh) in NJ, MA, and DC.RPS compliance costs and cost caps: RPS compliance costs in 2019 averaged roughly 2.6% of retail electricity bills in RPS states, compared to 2.3% in 2018, with costs in most states ranging from 0.5% to 4.5% of retail electricity bills.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Solar Industry Update: (H2 2020) [Slides]

Each quarter, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) conducts the Quarterly Solar Industry Update, a presentation of technical trends within the solar industry, to the solar office staff. Each presentation focuses on global and U.S. supply and demand, module and system price, investment trends and business models, and updates on U.S. government programs supporting the solar industry.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Rare‐Earth Reduction in High‐Speed PM‐Assisted Synchronous Reluctance Motors Using Hybrid Magnet Strategies and Design Optimisation for 800 V EVs

The trend towards electrifying transportation systems has stimulated research endeavours aimed at developing electric machines that are not only high speed and efficient but also low‐cost and compact. To support this transition, the US Department of Energy (DOE) has established ambitious targets of $7/kW cost and 12 kW/L power density for the electric drivetrains. This paper attempts to meet these targets by proposing high‐speed permanent magnet assisted synchronous reluctance machine (PMASynRM) topologies enabled by hybrid magnet strategies, combining rare‐earth (RE) magnets with low‐cost, RE‐free alternatives. Modified 2‐layer and 3‐layer U‐shaped rotor configurations, featuring structural reinforcements to withstand high mechanical stress at elevated speeds, are developed. A multi‐objective design optimisation framework is employed to optimise the rotor design, targeting reductions in RE magnet volume, magnet demagnetisation risk and torque ripple while achieving the desired electromagnetic performance. A comprehensive analysis of the optimised rotor designs, compared against a 16,000 rpm, 800 V baseline IPM motor, shows over 70% RE reduction, demagnetisation risk below 3.5% and torque ripple under 10%. Detailed analyses of performance trends across various magnet combinations and rotor configurations highlight the viability of hybrid magnet PMASynRM designs as cost‐effective, robust and energy‐efficient solutions for next‐generation EVs.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
NASA NTRS1980

Materials processing in space: Future technology trends

NASA's materials processing in space- (MPS) program involves both ground and space-based research and looks to frequent and cost effective access to the space environment for necessary progress. The first generation payloads for research are under active design and development. They will be hosted by the Space Shuttle/Spacelab on Earth orbital flights in the early 1980's. hese missions will focus on the acquisition of materials behavior research data, the potential enhancement of Earth based technology, and the implementation of space based processing for specialized, high value materials. Some materials to be studied in these payloads may provide future breakthroughs for stronger alloys, ultrapure glasses, superior electronic components, and new or better chemicals. An operational 25 kW power system is expected to be operational to support sustained, systematic space processing activity beyond shuttle capability for second generation payload systems for SPACELAB and free flyer missions to study solidification and crystal growth and to process metal/alloys, glasses/ceramics, and chemicals and biologicals.

Barter, N. J.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Technoeconomic Design Optimization for Fast Reactors. Part II: Impact of Technoeconomic Constraints on Optimal Design

There is a current drive toward optimizing reactors, particularly small/micro reactors to minimize cost and maximize performance. Previous work has investigated the development of technoeconomic workflows for the design optimization of pool-type fast reactors that aim to deploy into district energy grids. Initial scoping studies verified that the workflow was capable of capturing design trends throughout a variety of design configurations and problem formulations while remaining sufficiently flexible. In this paper, this methodology is applied to understand how cost functions and technoeconomic constraints can drive optimal reactor design. Specifically, the UPu10Zr-fueled fast reactor model from Part I is adapted to include changes in the fissile content limits, control rod worth limits, control rod drive cost, and assumed fuel form. In the case of constraint relaxation at fixed power (fissile content and control rod worth limits), cost sensitivities of 5% to 10% were uncovered. Multi-objective optimization at varying reactor power levels with individualized control rod drives for each assembly (as opposed to one operational and one safety drive) increased cost by $\$10$ to $\$25$ million and substantially altered the optimal core geometry, favoring geometries with substantially fewer control rod placements relative to baseline optimization. Finally, a multi-objective optimization was performed at varying power levels with the fuel form overhauled to metallic, high-assay low-enriched uranium–based U10Zr with more refined fuel cost models. In the case of uranium fueling, the costs increased by at least $50 million relative to the baseline case. Furthermore, economic fuel zoning and lower reactivity swing cores were recovered. Each case serves to demonstrate the value of applying technoeconomic workflows to initial reactor design scoping studies to better understand the trade-off for a proposed concept between different design options.

Argonne Reactor Computation (ARC) codes↗
DOE OSTI2025

Nonlinear programming optimization of a single-stack electrodialysis desalination system for cost efficiency

Electrodialysis (ED) presents a competitive method for desalinating brackish waters. In this work, we perform cost optimization of a single-stack ED system across a range of feed salinities and water recoveries while optimizing operating voltage, number of cell pairs, and cell length. The results of our optimization show that the levelized cost of water (LCOW) increases with an increase in feed salinity. The outcomes of our optimization show that cost-optimal design generally increases cell length while decreasing cell pair number and operating voltage with an increase in salinity. These trends are nonlinear, with the number of cell pairs and applied voltage exhibiting local maxima when operating at low salinity and high recovery. We discuss the underlying mechanism for cell length becoming a leveraging design parameter by inspecting the length-dependent profiles of key electrochemical properties of the ED cell. Finally, we present how increasing performance metrics and decreasing costs impact LCOW, demonstrating that innovations that decrease counter-current diffusion have resulted in the highest decrease of LCOW.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Wind power costs driven by innovation and experience with further reductions on the horizon

The costs of wind power have declined to levels on par with or below those of conventional sources in many parts of the world. Wind power has become one of the fastest-growing sources of new electricity generation. We take stock of wind power cost evolution over the past 20 years, review methodologies commonly used for cost assessment, discuss the potential for continued cost reduction, and identify anticipated cost and value drivers. Our scope includes both onshore and offshore wind technologies. We draw from a vast body of literature on these topics to highlight key trends, approaches, and limitations. Furthermore, we discuss strategies for wind power assets to enhance their marginal economic value to the broader power system and consumers. We identify a myriad of factors that are expected to influence the future cost and value of wind power, including siting, project scale, turbine size, operational synergies, commodity prices, advancements in turbine technologies, enhanced management of the wind resource, and novel control technologies that provide value for the electricity grid. Because the common methods for forecasting future costs each have their own strengths and weaknesses, we find the best insights are elicited from a combination of methods. Overall, researchers and analysts anticipate further sizable cost reductions for onshore and offshore wind. Midrange forecasts for levelized cost of energy in 2050 are generally between $20 and $30/MWh for onshore wind and $40 and $60/MWh for offshore wind, a reduction to approximately half of today's levels. Optimistic forecasts anticipate these levels as early as 2030.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1988

Development of a multipurpose smart recorder for general aviation aircraft

An intelligent flight recorder, called the Smart Recorder, was fabricated and installed on a King Air aircraft used in standard commercial charter service. This recorder was used for collection of data toward two objectives: (1) the characterization of the typical environment encountered by the aircraft; and (2) research in the area of trend monitoring. Data processing routines and data presentation formats were defined that are applicable to commuter size aircraft. The feasibility of a cost-effective, multipurpose recorder for general aviation aircraft was successfully demonstrated. Implementation of on-board environmental data processing increased the number of flight hours that could be stored on a single data cartridge and simplified the data management problem by reducing the volume of data to be processed in the laboratory. Trend monitoring algorithms showed less variability in the trend plots when compared against plots of manual data.

White, J. H.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Optimized Carbon Fiber Composites in Wind Turbine Blade Design: Follow-On Studies

This project has identified opportunities to bring further reductions in the mass and cost of modern wind turbine blades through the use of alternative material systems and manufacturing processes. The fiber reinforced polymer material systems currently used by the wind industry have stagnated as the technology continues to mature and as a means to reduce risk while introducing new products with continually increasing blade lengths. However, as blade lengths continue to increase, the challenge of controlling blade mass becomes even more critical to enabling the associated levelized cost of energy reductions. Stiffer and stronger reinforcement fibers can help to resolve the challenges of meeting the loading demands while limiting the increase in weight, but these materials are substantially more expensive than the traditional E-glass fiber systems. One goal of this project and associated work is to identify pathways that improve the cost-effectiveness of carbon fiber such that it is the reinforcement of choice in the primary structural elements of wind blades. The use of heavy-tow textile carbon fiber material systems has been shown to reduce the blade mass by 30-31% when used in the spar cap and by up to 7% when used in edgewise reinforcement. A pultrusion cost model was developed to enable a material cost comparison that includes an accurate estimate of the intermediate manufacturing step of pultrusion for the carbon fiber composite. Material cost reductions were revealed in most cases for the heavy-tow textile carbon fiber compared to infused fiberglass. The use of carbon fiber in the edgewise reinforcement produced the most notable material cost reduction of 33% for the heavy-tow textile carbon fiber. The mass and cost savings observed when using carbon fiber in edgewise reinforcement demonstrate a clear opportunity of this design approach. A carbon fiber conversion cost model was expanded to include a characterization of manufacturing costs when using advanced conversion processes with atmospheric plasma oxidation. This manufacturing approach was estimated to reduce the cost of carbon fiber material systems by greater than 10% and can be used with textile carbon systems or traditional carbon fiber precursors. The pultrusion cost model was also used to assess the opportunity for using pultruded fiberglass in wind blades, studying conventional E-glass fiber reinforcement. When using pultruded fiberglass as the spar cap material for two design classifications, the blade weight was reduced by 6% and 9% compared to infused fiberglass. However, due to the relatively large share of the pultrusion manufacturing cost compared to fiber cost, the spar cap material cost increased by 12% and 7%. When considering the system benefits of reduced blade mass and potentially lower blade manufacturing costs for pultruded composites, there may be opportunity for pultruded E-glass in wind blade spar caps, but further studies are needed. There is a clearer outcome for using pultruded fiberglass in the edgewise reinforcement where it resulted in a blade mass reduction of 2% and associated reinforcement material cost reduction of 1% compared to infused E-glass. The use of higher performing glass fibers, such as S-glass and H-glass systems, will produce greater mass savings but a study is needed to assess the cost implications for these more expensive systems. The most likely opportunity for these high-performance glass fibers is in the edgewise reinforcement, where the increased strength will reduce the damage accumulation of this fatigue-driven component. The blade design assessments in this project characterize the controlling material properties for the primary structural components in the flapwise and edgewise directions for modern wind blades. The observed trends with low and high wind speed turbine classifications for carbon and glass fiber reinforced polymer systems help to identify where cost reductions are needed, and where improvements in mechanical properties would help to reduce the material demands.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Integrating Contaminant Source Indicators, Water Quality Measures, and Ecotoxicity to Characterize Contaminant Mixtures and Per- and Polyfluoroalkyl Substance (PFAS) Variability in an Urban Watershed

Thousands of chemical contaminants threaten watersheds but are time and cost prohibitive to monitor. Identifying their sources, transport, and ecological risk is limited in heterogeneous urban watersheds. We present an integrative watershed approach using source-specific indicator compounds, common water quality measures, and ecotoxicity assays to examine the distribution of contaminant mixtures in an urbanized watershed. Indicator compound concentrations were temporally and spatially distributed for treated/untreated sewage (sucralose, artificial sweetener), road runoff (diphenyl-guanidine [DPG] and 6PPD-quinone [6PPD-Q], automobile tire additives), and lawncare runoff (aminomethanephosphonic acid (AMPA), major degradant of the herbicide glyphosate). Sucralose was predominately sourced from treated wastewater; measurable concentrations in tributaries indicated raw sewage inputs. DPG and 6PPD-Q concentrations correlated to road density during base flow and were elevated during stormflow. AMPA was measurable spring through fall, especially where lawns were dense. When specific sources dominated flow, water quality measures correlated with wastewater (sulfate, potassium, chloride, and sodium) and road runoff (chromium and lead) indicators. The limited behavioral toxicity observed in exposed zebrafish (Danio rerio) (18%) was not well explained by source-indicators. PFAS concentrations were highly variable spatially but not well explained by our source-specific indicator compounds. Here, more costly compound-specific monitoring may be necessary when multiple sources exist or when unexpected toxicity trends occur.

computer simulations↗
DOE OSTI2024

Enabling the Electrification of Offshore Activities – Co-Demonstration of Next-Generation Autonomous Offshore Power System and Resident, Uncrewed Mobile and Static Assets at PacWave Wave Energy Test Site

Oceans cover two-thirds of the earth's surface and form the world's biggest and best – yet largely untapped – battery. Ocean waves have more energy density than other renewables, including wind, solar, and biomass, and have the potential to supply 4x the world's annual energy consumption (Masterson, 2022; Zic, 2020). In addition to the impact wave energy can have on decarbonizing and diversifying the electric grid, it offers a significant value proposition in the emerging blue economy sector (LiVecchi et al, 2019). The blue economy consists of industries operating offshore, including shipping, oil and gas, defense and security, aquaculture, and research. These industries require bringing people and energy on site to perform daily work, but current energy costs in the blue economy are extremely high. Here, the prevailing processes are complex, including shore dependencies and fuel transportation logistics. Few alternatives for reliable power generation exist, with the most prominent being high cost and high carbon emissions diesel generation. Because of this lack of affordable, reliable power, the trends of electrification, digitization, and automation that have led to substantial innovation and improvements in the terrestrial economy over the last two decades are slow to come to the blue economy.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
NASA NTRS1973

Trends in transport aircraft avionics

A survey of avionics onboard present commercial transport aircraft was conducted to identify trends in avionics systems characteristics and to determine the impact of technology advances on equipment weight, cost, reliability, and maintainability. Transport aircraft avionics systems are described under the headings of communication, navigation, flight control, and instrumentation. The equipment included in each section is described functionally. However, since more detailed descriptions of the equipment can be found in other sources, the description is limited and emphasis is put on configuration requirements. Since airborne avionics systems must interface with ground facilities, certain ground facilities are described as they relate to the airborne systems, with special emphasis on air traffic control and all-weather landing capability.

Berkstresser, B. K.↗