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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2022

NASA Physics of Failure (PoF) for Reliability

An item’s reliability or longevity is dependent not only on its design but also on how it is used, manufactured, tested, and the stresses it has or will experience. Stresses include operational and environmental exposures to thermal, voltage, current, age/exposure, mechanical, and radiation mechanisms. Therefore, in reliability analysis, it is important to consider the contributions of all of these factors when predicting the failure rates of components. Historically, there has been a reliance on handbook data (e.g., MIL-HDBK-217), but experience has shown that these values and distributions are not representative of actual performance (1,2). Therefore, to make more credible reliability and risk assessments for its missions, NASA must transition to estimating likelihoods of failure based on an item’s reliability/longevity factors (or the physical susceptibilities and strengths impacting the design’s performance) has or will experience, whenever possible. To facilitate this transition a “Handbook on Methodology for Physics of Failure Based Reliability Assessments” has been developed by NASA to assist in applying physics experiences or experiment physics for empirical analysis and conceptualized physics exposures or theoretical physics for deterministic analysis, to develop and aggregate realistic likelihoods of failure leading to more credible forecasts of item performance and longevity. In addition, since it is NASA’s intention that this document continues to evolve based on community lessons learned and the introduction of new assessment methodologies, NASA is encouraging and appreciates the contributions of current and future authors to maintain and enhance this handbook and its supporting case studies.

Physics of Failure↗
NASA NTRS2024

The abcd Reliability Growth Model

This paper presents a modification of the well-known Duane-Crow reliability growth model. In the abcd reliability growth model, the initial period of exponential decline of the failure rate in the Duane-Crow model may be followed by a period of constant failure rate. Data often show that an exponential decline in failures is followed by a constant failure rate. If a growth model including only the initial period of exponential decline is applied to increasingly longer failure rate data sets, the data will include longer periods of constant failure rate, and the estimated reliability growth rate will decline from an initially high value down toward zero. Using the Duane-Crow model without extending it to include a possible period of constant failure rate may create the mistaken impression that the initial reliability growth continues forever, but at an ever decreasing rate.

Reliability growth↗
NASA NTRS2024

The abcd Reliability Growth Model

This paper presents a modification of the well-known Duane-Crow reliability growth model. In the abcd reliability growth model, the initial period of exponential decline of the failure rate in the Duane-Crow model may be followed by a period of constant failure rate. Data often show that an exponential decline in failures is followed by a constant failure rate. If a growth model including only the initial period of exponential decline is applied to increasingly longer failure rate data sets, the data will include longer periods of constant failure rate, and the estimated reliability growth rate will decline from an initially high value down toward zero. Using the Duane-Crow model without extending it to include a possible period of constant failure rate may create the mistaken impression that the initial reliability growth continues forever, but at an ever decreasing rate.

Reliability growth↗
NASA NTRS1972

Reliability of the global NASCOM network.

Transmission media reliability is an extremely important factor in the design and operation of a real-time communications network. It has had a profound effect not only on the configuration design of the NASCOM network itself, but on the philosophy of command/control of all NASA spacecraft, manned and unmanned. In an effort to obtain the highest possible level of circuit reliability and performance, goals or criteria have been established for each type of circuit. Also, special management techniques have been used in an effort to improve circuit reliability. The results of these efforts, as well as general technological improvements in the transmission media, are illustrated by showing measured composite circuit reliability over the past nine years and actual circuit performance measured during Apollo 8 through 15.

Stelter, L. R.↗
NASA NTRS1971

Reliability model of a monopropellant auxiliary propulsion system

A mathematical model and associated computer code has been developed which computes the reliability of a monopropellant blowdown hydrazine spacecraft auxiliary propulsion system as a function of time. The propulsion system is used to adjust or modify the spacecraft orbit over an extended period of time. The multiple orbit corrections are the multiple objectives which the auxiliary propulsion system is designed to achieve. Thus the reliability model computes the probability of successfully accomplishing each of the desired orbit corrections. To accomplish this, the reliability model interfaces with a computer code that models the performance of a blowdown (unregulated) monopropellant auxiliary propulsion system. The computer code acts as a performance model and as such gives an accurate time history of the system operating parameters. The basic timing and status information is passed on to and utilized by the reliability model which establishes the probability of successfully accomplishing the orbit corrections.

Greenberg, J. S.↗
NASA NTRS1974

Theory of reliable systems

Research is reported in the program to refine the current notion of system reliability by identifying and investigating attributes of a system which are important to reliability considerations, and to develop techniques which facilitate analysis of system reliability. Reliability analysis, and on-line fault diagnosis are discussed.

Meyer, J. F.↗
NASA NTRS1974

Reliability inputs to Mariner 9 data explosion

This paper describes the prelaunch and post-launch reliability functions which contributed to the success of the Mariner 9 spacecraft. Examples are included to illustrate how each reliability activity was a vital part of each phase of the project. Prelaunch reliability functions included: (1) establishing, negotiating, and monitoring system and subsystem requirements, (2) participating in spacecraft system and subsystem design/hardware reviews, (3) monitoring preparation of failure mode effects and criticality analyses (FMECA), (4) establishing and managing a problem failure reporting (PFR) system for the spacecraft and its support equipment, (5) monitoring electronic parts activities, and (6) participating in spacecraft reviews. Particular emphasis is placed on mission operations reliability assurance activities, which included: (1) spacecraft problem/failure reporting, (2) managing an integrating failure reporting system which covered all mission operations activities, (3) real-time analysis of spacecraft anomalies, and (4) risk assessment.

Macgregor, D. S.↗
NASA NTRS1974

Sequential cumulative fatigue reliability

A component is assumed to be subjected to a sequence of several groups of sinusoidal stresses. Each group consists of a specific number of cycles having the same maximum alternating stress level and the same mean stress level, the maximum alternating stress level being different from group to group. A method for predicting the reliability of components subjected to such loads is proposed, given their distributional alternating stress versus cycles-to-failure (S-N) diagram. It is called the 'conditional reliability-equivalent life' method. It is applied to four-cases using distributional fatigue data generated in the Reliability Research Laboratory of The University of Arizona, and the predicted reliabilities are compared and discussed.

Kececioglu, D.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Reliability approach to rotating-component design

A probabilistic methodology for designing rotating mechanical components using reliability to relate stress to strength is explained. The experimental test machines and data obtained for steel to verify this methodology are described. A sample mechanical rotating component design problem is solved by comparing a deterministic design method with the new design-by reliability approach. The new method shows that a smaller size and weight can be obtained for specified rotating shaft life and reliability, and uses the statistical distortion-energy theory with statistical fatigue diagrams for optimum shaft design. Statistical methods are presented for (1) determining strength distributions for steel experimentally, (2) determining a failure theory for stress variations in a rotating shaft subjected to reversed bending and steady torque, and (3) relating strength to stress by reliability.

Kececioglu, D. B.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Aerospace mechanical reliability practice

The impact of mechanical-reliability practice on the Saturn/Apollo launch program is considered with reference to the interrelationship of analysts and designers with management. Rocket engine development, ground testing, and launch facilities in the Saturn/Apollo program are discussed, and the Saturn reliability approach is examined in regard to management style, decision making, human error control, and reliability analyses. It is noted that the use of conservative design philosophy contributed to achieved reliability.

Fedor, O. H.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Space reliability technology - A historical perspective

The progressive improvements in reliability of launch vehicles is traced from the Vanguard rocket to the STS. The Vanguard, built with minimal redundancy and a high mass ratio, was used as an operational vehicle midway through its test program in an attempt to meet the perceived challenge represented by the Sputnik. The fourth Vanguard failed due to inadequate contamination prevention and lack of inspection ports. Automatic firing sequences were adopted for the Titan rockets, which were an order of magnitude larger than the Vanguard and therefore had room for interior inspections. Qualification testing and reporting were introduced for components, along with X ray inspection of fuel tank welds. Dual systems were added for flight critical components when the Titan became man-rated for the Gemini program. Designs incorporated full failure mode effects and criticality analyses for the Apollo program, which exposed the limits of applicability of numerical reliability models. Fault tree analyses and program milestone reviews were initiated. The worth of man-in-the-loop in space activities for reliability was demonstrated with the rescue of Skylab after solar panel and meteoroid shield failures. It is now the reliability of the payload, rather than the vehicle, that is questioned for Shuttle launches.

Cohen, H.↗
NASA NTRS1985

The conservativeness of reliability estimates based on instantaneous coverage

Reliability modeling must take into account two different types of phenomena, including the fault-occurrence behavior and the fault/error-handling behavior of a system. The effectiveness of the fault/error-handling behavior can be captured by instantaneous coverage probabilities. This paper has the objective to show that the assumption of instantaneous coverage leads to conservative predictions of system reliability for systems characterized by relatively long interevent times for fault occurrences and relatively short interevent times for fault/error-handling actions. The importance of this result is related to the fact that it can now be shown that model predictions based on instantaneous coverage are lower bounds on the true system reliability. Attention is given to a semi-Markov reliability model, instantaneous coverage approximations, the proof of conservative prediction, and the computation of coverage probabilities.

Mcgough, J.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Reliability and Engineering of Thin-Film Photovoltaic Modules. Research forum proceedings

A Research Forum on Reliability and Engineering of Thin Film Photovoltaic Modules, under sponsorship of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory's Flat Plate Solar Array (FSA) Project and the U.S. Department of Energy, was held in Washington, D.C., on March 20, 1985. Reliability attribute investigations of amorphous silicon cells, submodules, and modules were the subjects addressed by most of the Forum presentations. Included among the reliability research investigations reported were: Arrhenius-modeled accelerated stress tests on a Si cells, electrochemical corrosion, light induced effects and their potential effects on stability and reliability measurement methods, laser scribing considerations, and determination of degradation rates and mechanisms from both laboratory and outdoor exposure tests.

Ross, R. G., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Crystalline-silicon reliability lessons for thin-film modules

The reliability of crystalline silicon modules has been brought to a high level with lifetimes approaching 20 years, and excellent industry credibility and user satisfaction. The transition from crystalline modules to thin film modules is comparable to the transition from discrete transistors to integrated circuits. New cell materials and monolithic structures will require new device processing techniques, but the package function and design will evolve to a lesser extent. Although there will be new encapsulants optimized to take advantage of the mechanical flexibility and low temperature processing features of thin films, the reliability and life degradation stresses and mechanisms will remain mostly unchanged. Key reliability technologies in common between crystalline and thin film modules include hot spot heating, galvanic and electrochemical corrosion, hail impact stresses, glass breakage, mechanical fatigue, photothermal degradation of encapsulants, operating temperature, moisture sorption, circuit design strategies, product safety issues, and the process required to achieve a reliable product from a laboratory prototype.

Ross, R. G., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1984

An interactive program for software reliability modeling

With the tremendous growth in computer software, the demand has arisen for producing cost effective reliable software. Over the last 10 years an area of research has developed which attempts to address this problem by estimating a program's current reliability by modeling either the times between error detections or the error counts in past testing periods. A new tool for interactive software reliability analysis using the computer is described. This computer program allows the user to perform a complete reliability analysis using any of eight well-known models appearing in the literature. Some of the capabilities of the program are illustrated by means of an analysis of a set of simulated error data.

Farr, W. H.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Reliability and engineering of thin-film photovoltaic modules

Objectives were to: examine thin-film cell attributes that influence module performance and reliability, explore the lessons and applicability of crystalline-silicon module technology to thin-film modules, review the current status of thin-film module technologies, and identify problem areas and needed research. A major need is to separate the effects and resons for reversible degradatin from nonreversible degradation. Amorphous-silicon (a-Si) reliability investigations are focusing on exploratory research investigations, accelerated Arrhenius-type testing of a-Si cells, real-time outdoor exposure testing of a-Si cells, cell failure analysis, and failure mechanism research. Studies included the reduction in strength of glass by high temperature depositions on glass and laser scribing, encapsulation materials development needs, and the testing of modules. The new materials and processes in thin-film modules will require a delinquent reliability effort, including: establishment of mechanism-specific reliability goals; quantification of mechanism parameter dependencies; prediction of expected long-term degradation; identification of cost-effective solutions; and testing and failure analysis of trial solutions.

Royal, E. L.↗
NASA NTRS1986

An experiment in software reliability

The results of a software reliability experiment conducted in a controlled laboratory setting are reported. The experiment was undertaken to gather data on software failures and is one in a series of experiments being pursued by the Fault Tolerant Systems Branch of NASA Langley Research Center to find a means of credibly performing reliability evaluations of flight control software. The experiment tests a small sample of implementations of radar tracking software having ultra-reliability requirements and uses n-version programming for error detection, and repetitive run modeling for failure and fault rate estimation. The experiment results agree with those of Nagel and Skrivan in that the program error rates suggest an approximate log-linear pattern and the individual faults occurred with significantly different error rates. Additional analysis of the experimental data raises new questions concerning the phenomenon of interacting faults. This phenomenon may provide one explanation for software reliability decay.

Dunham, J. R.↗