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Feasibility and strategic implications of deploying nuclear power reactors in Africa

This report assesses the feasibility and strategic implications of deploying nuclear power reactors, including large-scale plants, advanced small modular reactors (SMRs), and microreactors, in African countries. Case studies focus on South Africa, Egypt, Kenya, Ghana, and Nigeria, examining nuclear energy’s role in Africa’s rapidly evolving energy landscape, marked by fast-growing demand, significant electricity access gaps, increasing renewable penetration, and strong policy commitments to industrialization and energy security. Several U.S. reactor technologies and designs are considered based on their development status and readiness for deployment. The analysis finds that nuclear power can provide reliable, clean baseload and flexible generation, as well as high-temperature process heat for desalination, hydrogen production, and industrial applications. However, suitability is highly country-specific, depending on grid size and stability, transmission capacity, cooling water availability, regulatory readiness, and fuel supply chains. Near-term deployment opportunities are strongest for light-water reactors (such as NuScale, BWRX-300, AP300, and SMR-300) that use low-enriched uranium and build on proven technology. More advanced concepts, including gas-cooled, sodium-cooled, molten-salt cooled reactors, and microreactors, will likely be relevant for African deployment in the 2030s or later, contingent on demonstration projects, high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU) fuel availability, and mature international licensing frameworks. Economic analysis shows that SMRs are capital-intensive, with projected overnight costs for 300 MWe units in 2025 ranging from approximately 1.4 to 2.6 billion USD per module. The levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) is highly sensitive to the weighted average cost of capital (WACC). Given typically higher financing costs and utility balance-sheet weaknesses in many African countries, bankable project structures will require sovereign guarantees, robust offtake arrangements, and layered financing from export credit agencies, development finance institutions, and vendor nations. Comparisons with recent large nuclear projects in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Egypt underscore the central role of state-backed loans, long tenors, and concessional terms. Country case studies illustrate a spectrum of readiness and opportunity. South Africa operates two 920 MWe pressurized light water reactors (totaling 1,840 MWe) at Koeberg and has the most mature regulatory and industrial base, positioning it as a prime candidate for both large reactors and SMRs to replace coal, support desalination, and anchor industrial hubs. Egypt is constructing four VVER-1200 units at El Dabaa with strong state leadership and could later complement this fleet with SMRs for coastal and industrial applications. Kenya and Ghana are advancing through IAEA Milestones with growing institutional capacity and clear interest in SMRs that match their smaller grids and industrialization plans. Nigeria has the largest demand potential but faces acute constraints in grid reliability, project bankability, and regulatory capacity; targeted deployments of large reactors and SMRs near coastal or industrial sites could have high impact if accompanied by major grid upgrades and institutional reforms. The report identifies cross-cutting challenges such as financing, political continuity, public acceptance, nonproliferation and security, waste and back-end management, regulatory capacity, grid adequacy, and long deployment timelines for first-of-a-kind designs, and ANL/NSE-26/3 ii proposes broad directions for resolution. These include stronger multifaceted financing for nuclear, long-term national energy strategies that transcend electoral cycles, proactive stakeholder engagement, strengthened regional and national regulators, and systematic workforce development through centers of excellence and expanded training. The United States should develop partnerships with African countries and offer end-to-end nuclear package similar to those used effectively by competitors: coordinated project development, state-backed financing, long-term fuel services, and durable in-country support through regional offices and sustained workforce/regulatory training. With timely planning, sustained political commitment, and appropriate financing and institutional support, nuclear energy, both large reactors and advanced SMRs, can become a meaningful, though not dominant, pillar of Africa’s future power mix, enhancing energy security, enabling industrial growth, and supporting climate goals.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

End-to-end Analytics for Grid Arch Design & All-hazard Assessment

Resiliency, reliability, and security of the next-generation smart grid depend upon leveraging advanced communication and computing technologies, integrating them with physical power systems, and developing real-time, fast, data-based applications to help in wide-area monitoring and control of the grid. Using a high sampling data rate from phasor measurement units (PMUs) to develop applications has opened the door to achieving the next-generation grid requirements. The North American Synchrophasor Initiative Network (NASPlnet) was developed in 2007-09 to create a standard and guide for PMU data exchanges. With the advancement in both networking and grid requirements, it is necessary to evaluate the performance of different NASPInet versions and their impact on applications. Therefore, we need a cyber-power cosimulation framework that supports very large-scale co-simulation capable of running in parallel, high-performance computing platforms and capturing real-life network behavior. This work presents a cyber-physical co-simulation testbed using NS3 to model the communication network, GridPACK to model the power grid, and HELICS as a co-simulation engine. Comparative analysis of latency in synchrophasor networks and a performance evaluation of a power system stabilizer application based on PMU data in an Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers 39-bus test system is presented using this co-simulation testbed.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Facility Cybersecurity Framework Best Practices

Federal facilities are increasingly adopting automation and connecting to the Internet creating an energy-internet-of-things environment that converges operational technology (OT) and information technology (IT). Today's buildings increasingly weave together networked sensors and cyber and physical systems that enable data to be collected, aggregated, exchanged, stored and monetized in new ways. Building technological advances have created new energy technology, services, markets and value creation opportunities (e.g. transactive energy, two-way grid communications, machine learning, and increased use of renewable and distributed energy resources). But as larger data sets are being exchanged at faster speeds between an increasing number of OT systems, it becomes more difficult to protect the security of the data lifecycle and the physical equipment it interacts with. These challenges are especially difficult to overcome because the economic and environmental gain (interoperability, big data, social networks and ubiquitous information sharing) are driving these prominent trends in the digital age. Often cybersecurity is an afterthought. The U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Federal Energy Management Program (FEMP) funded the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) to develop various cybersecurity tools, trainings, and reports to aid federal facility managers – and other building owners and operators – in better applying frameworks and lessons learned from the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) Cybersecurity Framework (CSF), risk management framework (RMF), DOE’s cybersecurity capability maturity model (C2M2), and a wide variety of industry best practices and guidance documents (i.e., NIST 800 series, Department of Defense United Facilities Criteria). This set of tools, collectively known as the FEMP Facility-Related Control System Cyber Toolkit (FRCS Cyber Toolkit)2, is focused on cybersecurity concerns from facility-related control systems and other operational technology (OT), such as industrial control systems (ICS). The FRCS Cyber Toolkit can be applied across six of the sixteen critical infrastructure sectors designated by the Department of Homeland Security, including government facilities, healthcare and public health, commercial facilities (e.g., public assembly, offices, lodging), financial services (e.g., banking and insurance), emergency services (e.g., fire and police stations), and information technology. With increasingly converged IT and OT systems, it is crucial to address OT cybersecurity considerations and assess how the seam of these two systems could impact the overall cybersecurity posture of a facility. The objective of this report is to provide an overview of the best possible method to use FRCS Cyber Toolkit (section 2.0) and distilled cybersecurity best practices for the federal facilities to address growing non-linear cyber threats (section 3.0). Recommendations in this document are aggregated from several NIST and other documents (see Appendix A for additional details).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Design and Implementation of Full-Scale Industrial Control System Test Bed for Assessing Cyber-Security Defenses

In response to the increasing awareness of the Ethernet-based threat surface of industrial control systems (ICS), both the research and commercial communities are responding with ICS-specific security solutions. Unfortunately, many of the properties of ICS environments that contribute to the extent of this threat surface (e.g. age of devices, inability or unwillingness to patch, criticality of the system) similarly prevent the proper testing and evaluation of these security solutions. Production environments are often too fragile to introduce unvetted technology and most organizations lack test environments that are sufficiently consistent with production to yield actionable results. Cost and space requirements prevent the creation of mirrored physical environments leading many to look towards simulation or virtualization. Examples in literature provide various approaches to building ICS test beds, though most of these suffer from a lack of realism due to contrived scenarios, synthetic data and other compromises. In this paper, we provide a design methodology for building highly realistic ICS test beds for validating cybersecurity defenses. We then apply that methodology to the design and building of a specific test bed and describe the results and experimental use cases.

Gillen, Rob↗

A White Paper: Disposition Options for a High-Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor

The high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR) is a uranium-fueled, graphite-moderated, gas-cooled nuclear reactor design concept capable of producing very high core outlet temperatures. Both types of HTGR have the tristructural isotropic (TRISO) fuel kernel at the heart of the fuel design. For the prismatic block-type HTGR, the TRISO particles are overcoated with a resinated graphitic matrix and pressed into fuel compacts, which are then heat treated and placed in the fuel channels of the prismatic-block-shaped fuel assemblies. For the pebble-bed-type HTGR, the TRISO particles are dispersed in a graphitic-matrix sphere, which is the basic unit for the reactor core. Despite having very different fuel designs, both types of HTGR are graphite-moderated, gas-cooled, thermal reactors using many of the same materials. As a result, both prismatic-block-type and pebble-bed-type HTGRs have similar radioactive waste streams, all of which require safe and secure storage and eventual disposition. Modern HTGR designs are based on a long and rich operating history of several different graphite-moderated, gas-cooled, thermal reactors. Several of these reactors have been shut down, the fuel has been placed in safe storage, and they have undergone some degree of decommissioning. As such, there is significant experience in the management of the spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and radioactive wastes associated with operating these reactors. This white paper will, (1) identify the definitions and regulations that apply to the safe and secure management, storage, and disposal of radioactive waste; and (2) identify the key radioactive waste streams from HTGRs and their characteristics. Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has significant experience in the management of SNF from HTGR predecessors. This experience should form the basis for the management and disposition efforts of the radioactive waste from any new HTGR-type small modular reactor, or microreactor intended for deployment at the INL site.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Energy Security and Resilience (ESR) Initiative

Central to achieving reduced carbon emissions and sustained economic recovery from the COVID pandemic is a national energy system based on low-carbon technologies and resistant to disruption from severe weather events and human attacks. NREL’s Energy Security and Resilience (ESR) Initiative applies NREL’s expertise in the design and operation of clean, highly distributed energy systems to the most pressing security and resilience challenges.

cybersecurity↗

A Visual Analytic Platform for Interactive Validation of Human Mobility Simulations

Human mobility insights guide domain experts in an array of decisions, including critical infrastructure design, disaster response, epidemic modeling, national security, and policy making. Due to the inherent noise and privacy concerns in real-world individual-level mobility data, it is often preferred to leverage simulators that generate synthetic mobility data instead. However, it is critical to inspect and validate the output of such simulators to ensure the synthetic data is aligned with the characteristics of the population and the area of interest known to domain experts. While there exist many quantitative approaches for validating synthetic data, we argue it is also important to also validate such data qualitatively to capture aspects that are known to domain experts but difficult to quantify. In this work, we demonstrate a visual analytic platform that empowers domain experts to interact with their simulation outputs along spatial and temporal dimensions. By augmenting automated techniques and human skills, our visual analytic platform is a step towards interactive capabilities for model steering and quality control of mobility simulators.

Monadjemi, Shayan↗

Dilute and Dispose Cost Estimate for Equipment Installation per the LCCE

As directed in the Consolidation Appropriations Act, 2016, the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) initiated the preconceptual design and development of a Lifecycle Cost Estimate for the Surplus Plutonium Disposition (SPD) Dilute and Dispose Program. Based on August 2016 Program Requirements Document and subsequent supplemental guidance, LANL prepared the Lifecycle Cost Estimate under key assumptions that meet the program’s requirements. For Dilute and Dispose, the program would disposition surplus Pu by diluting oxide produced at LANL with inhibitor materials, packaging the materials in containers, and shipping the containers to a deep geologic repository for permanent disposal. The base assumption is that LANL would disassemble pits, convert the Pu metal to oxide, and characterize and package the material for shipment to SRS, where it would be diluted prior to geologic disposal at the WIPP site in New Mexico. Another major assumption for the Dilute and Dispose option is that LANL would increase the current oxide production rate (or throughput) to 1500 kg/year, 5 times higher than the maximum annual production of ~300 Kgs executed by the ARIES Oxide Production Program at LANL. Analysis based on the ARIES program’s throughput model revealed that 15 pieces of equipment would need to be installed within PF-4 and certain facility improvements would need to be accomplished in order to meet the desired throughput levels. The additional equipment would be essentially identical to equipment already used within PF-4 for existing operations.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Urban Combined Heat and Power with Integrated Renewables and Energy Storage

This project demonstrated how incorporating a diverse generation and storage portfolio allows an urban district energy system to improve its efficiency by at least 50% and increase its backup power by at least 40% with a return on investment of at least ten years. The improvement was evaluated against the baseline operations for two urban district energy systems (DESs): a synthetic DES and a George Washington University DES. The DES techno-economic framework we developed yields reliability, resilience, and vulnerability indices for urban DESs (including generation and storage) with designation of which technologies improve the security and resiliency metrics by at least 20% compared to the status quo. The indices are benchmarked against baseline scenarios, and cost projections (capital cost and return on investment) to achieve the 20% improvement are reported. The energy management system we developed to conduct these analyses was incorporated into a user-friendly interface that can be used for decision-making by a user with no technical or programming background.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

2021 Annual Report Laboratory Directed Research & Development

The Department of Energy’s (DOE) Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) program is an essential pathway for innovation, capability growth, and research staff development at Idaho National Laboratory (INL). This program enables timely and agile response to national security, energy, and environmental challenges that motivate INL’s mission to discover and demonstrate innovative nuclear energy solutions and other clean energy options as well as securing our critical infrastructure. This report highlights INL’s LDRD projects concluding in fiscal year (FY) 2021 which included innovative research and development (R&D) across INL’s five science and technology initiatives: nuclear reactor sustainment and expanded deployment, integrated fuel cycle solutions, integrated energy systems, advanced design and manufacturing for extreme environments, and secure and resilient cyber-physical systems.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

High-Current Light-Ion Cyclotron for Applications in Nuclear Security and Radioisotope Production

In this article, we propose the conceptual design, with supporting beam dynamics results, of a normal conducting, separated-sector cyclotron with a strong-focusing field gradient designed to accelerate light ions with a charge-to-mass ratio of 1/2 up to 15–20 MeV/u. The design can support a host of applications for therapy, radiobiology, material science, and instrumentation development. The light-ion species, which can include a mixed ion beam, can be dynamically chosen to provide a range of characteristic signals appropriate for specific material identification such as special nuclear materials. A conservative baseline concept is presented which has been optimized for radioisotope production of alpha emitters and theranostic radiopharmaceuticals. The modular design is also demonstrated to be scalable in gross physical parameters by a factor of 2–3, thereby reducing the size, weight, and power requirements (SWaP) and enabling near-term security applications.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

Defensive Cybersecurity Architecture Design Using Force-on-Force Cyber-Physical Modeling

Currently, nuclear power plant physical security systems are highly dependent on air-gaps as a protective measure against cyber-threats. Cyber-physical threats become more likely as advanced cyber-threat capabilities to jump air-gaps transition into common use. Defending against the emerging threat of cyber-enabled physical intrusions is poorly understood. The consequence of these cyber-physical attacks has no quantitative analysis method to inform risk-informed, performance-based cybersecurity approaches. By modifying the physical security simulation tool Dante, cyber-physical threat consequence was able to be analyzed on a notional facility. The results of this analysis are used to design a Defensive Cybersecurity Architecture (DCSA) for the physical security system to produce example resilience measures for this notional facility. A DCSA defines security levels to provide a graded approach for defending plant functions, and security zones for trusted communication between systems. This approach can be applied to real world systems to produce physical protection systems and response measures that are resilient to cyber-physical threats.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Review of Pantex Radiation Safety Department 2020 Backup Dosimetry Processing Methodology

In the first quarter (Q1) of Calendar Year 2020, the Pantex Radiation Safety Department (Pantex) experienced various issues and failures with their dosimeter processing equipment. Efforts to repair the equipment resulted in limited functionality without the ability to process dosimeters assigned to personnel for monitoring dose. As a result of the impairments to the dosimeter processing equipment, Pantex called upon Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) for support, as their designated backup processor. In January of 2021, LLNL Subject Matter Experts in External Dosimetry started an NNSA-requested review of Pantex’s personnel doses in Q1 2020. Its focus was the technical validity of the means and methods used by Pantex and its conclusions and provide a level of confidence to National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) that the resulting personnel doses were reasonable, conservative, and defensible.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

LLGOMAX: Enhancing Industry-Standard Tools for AC Optimal Unit Commitment (CRADA Final Report)

This was a collaborative effort between Lawrence Livermore National Security, LLC ("LLNS"), as manager and operator of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory ("LLNL") and ECCO International Inc. ("Participant"). The team designed and implemented a new approach for the Security-Constrained Alternating-Current Unit Commitment (SCACUC) problem. The SCACUC problem is a mathematical optimization problem that decides which generating units should be online and how much power should be produced (and consumed) at each point of the power grid. The decisions are made so as to minimize the total cost of supplying electricity while respecting technical constraints of the power grid, both under normal and emergency conditions. The team developed a solution for SCACUC as specified in the ARPA-E Grid Optimization Competition (GOC) Challenge 3, which put forth a forward-looking version of the problem, which many features not present in today’s electricity market specifications for SCACUC.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

From Modular ADMS to Plug-and-Play Ops: Distribution Grid Operations with Platform-Level Orchestration to Enable Ambitious App Hosting

The core function of the distribution grid is to provide electricity to consumers affordably, reliably, and securely. In pursuing these core objectives, distribution utilities are accountable to customers, regulators, and in some cases, shareholders. Other third parties such as aggregators and microgrids can also have a stake in the smooth operation of the grid. Each of these stakeholders has economic, business, and/or governance objectives that inform their expectations of the distribution grid. This multi-objective, multi-stakeholder environment creates tension that must be reconciled to successfully design and operate the distribution grid. Innovative companies are competing to bring high-tech solutions to electric utilities and their customers that address each of these objectives. Many developers of advanced distribution management systems (ADMS) and distributed energy resource management systems (DERMS) have adopted a modular architecture that allows grid operators to select functions and features according to their individual system needs. A modular platform also allows the solution provider to develop and integrate specific new product modules; however, the need to pursue multiple objectives with a fixed set of controllable devices makes integration expensive whether it is done at the product development stage or the deployment stage. This cost creates a significant barrier to adoption and can lengthen the product to market time of new solutions. To fundamentally address the complexity of system integration for distribution grid operations, the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Electricity has funded the GridAPPS-D project at PNNL, which streamlines integration by contributing to standards development, defining system architecture, applying advanced mathematics, and developing open-source software to demonstrate the concept of an open data-integration platform for distribution operations. The open data-integration platform concept enables system operators and solution providers to deploy ambitious, best-of-breed applications (or apps) without continually reengineering for integration. Ambitious apps developed by different solution providers will inevitably attempt to achieve different control objectives with the same set of controllable devices. If the open platform itself can resolve these conflicts in a way that achieves the best available outcomes for all apps, doesn’t restrict the ambitious design of apps, and ensures safe and secure operations, apps will be able to plug-and-play with the platform at the same time as other ambitious apps. In this paper, we describe a framework called App Deconfliction that empowers a platform to assign setpoints to controllable devices based on the values preferred by different apps (and even external stakeholder entities like customers or aggregators). The App Deconfliction framework is compatible with several methods for determining setpoint values. We present two methods based on game theory that provide a subtle built-in incentive structure for developers to adapt their apps to the fact that they will be operating in a moderated multi-app environment and to favor device setpoints that have the most effect on their objectives over those that have the least effect. Our simulation-based demonstrations have shown that game-theory-based deconfliction can lead to a 7% improvement in control space utilization compared to design-based methods.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Building a Trusted Roaming Hub [Slides]

The Trusted Roaming Hub is a U.S. Department of Energy-backed initiative led by the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) to address one of the most persistent challenges in electric vehicle (EV) charging: fragmented roaming, inconsistent interoperability, and insufficient digital trust across charging networks. As EV adoption accelerates and charging infrastructure scales nationwide, today's many-to-many integration model between eMobility Service Providers (eMSPs) and Charge Point Operators (CPOs) has become increasingly brittle, costly, and difficult to secure. The Trusted Roaming Hub introduces a neutral, cybersecurity-forward "switchboard" architecture that enables standardized, secure, and scalable roaming interactions across the EV charging ecosystem. Rather than replacing existing networks or commercial relationships, the hub acts as a trusted intermediary that enforces consistent identity, authentication, authorization, and routing across participants improving reliability for drivers, lowering integration burden for industry, and creating a foundation for future grid-interactive charging services. This read-ahead provides an overview of the problem the hub is designed to solve, the core functional and security concepts behind the architecture, the value proposition to key stakeholders, and the near-term trajectory of the work.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

CIE Curriculum Guide (V.2.0)

The Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE) Curriculum Guide offers a comprehensive framework, guidance, and resources for integrating CIE into university-level engineering programs and related educational activities. The primary goal is to help educators adopt CIE principles into their teaching to produce future engineers and technicians who understand digital risks in modern engineered systems, thereby addressing the nation’s infrastructure resilience needs. This guide outlines practical integration examples, links to resources to accelerate CIE adoption, and shares insights from partner academic institutions on various implementation strategies. CIE is a framework for embedding engineered controls that mitigate the impact of cyber-attacks in any cyber-physical system used in critical energy infrastructure and other sectors. Developed by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Cybersecurity, Energy Security, and Emergency Response (CESER), the National Cyber-Informed Engineering Strategy emphasizes embedding CIE into formal education, training, and credentialing. This guide supports this strategic objective by providing examples of integrating CIE concepts into engineering curricula, from class activities to new courses and certificate programs. The importance of educating cyber-informed engineers is underscored by the evolving cybersecurity threats facing engineered systems. As industrial control systems (ICS) increasingly incorporate digital technologies, the responsibility for security extends to both cyber professionals and engineers. CIE addresses critical gaps in designing and protecting physical systems with digital components against cyber risks, ensuring engineers consider digital risk throughout the engineering design lifecycle. Currently, engineering education does not routinely include cyber-informed principles, highlighting a gap in addressing modern engineering system risks. This guide advocates for updating engineering curricula to include digital risk management as a fundamental element. By doing so, future engineers will be equipped to design resilient systems that mitigate digital risks from the outset. Through this guide, engineering faculty can integrate CIE into their curricula, bridging the gap between digital risk and engineering. This approach prepares a cyber-informed workforce capable of safeguarding the cyber-physical systems crucial to national security and public welfare. By embedding CIE into education and training, institutions can produce engineers and technicians who can effectively mitigate cyber impacts throughout the engineering design lifecycle, resulting in more secure critical infrastructures.

42 - ENGINEERING↗

Evaluation of Real-Time Mitigation Techniques forCyber Security in IEC 61850 / IEC 62351Substations

This paper presents the design logic and implementation aspects of three potential real-time mitigation techniques capable of countering GOOSE-based attacks: (i) IEC 62351-compliant message authentication code (MAC) scheme, (ii) a semantics-enforced rule- based intrusion detection system (IDS), and (iii) a hybrid approach integrating both MAC verification and Intrusion Detection System (IDS). A comparative evaluation of these real-time mitigation approaches is conducted using a cyber-physical system(CPS) security testbed. The results show that the hybrid integration significantly enhances mitigation capability. Furthermore, the processing delays of all three methods remain within the strict delivery requirements of GOOSE communication. The study also identifies limitations that none of the techniques can fully address, highlighting areas for future work.

Liu, Chen-Ching [Virginia Polytechnic Inst. and St↗