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Whitepaper prepared for DOE Workshop on Integrated Simulations for Magnetic Fusion Energy Sciences: Topic E: Beyond interpretive simulations

Predictive simulations of magnetic confinement fusion and burning plasmas will require the quantification of all uncertainties and errors relating to the simulation capabilities. These include: discretization error (temporal and spatial); incomplete convergence error (nonlinear, linear, etc.); uncertainties in input data (initial conditions, boundary conditions, coefficients, thermo-physical properties, source terms, etc.); and uncertainties in the component models (the specific form and parameter values).13 Typically, there is a focus on model parameter uncertainties but uncertainties about which model to use and about the bias or discrepancy of a particular model (sometimes called model form error) often dominate parameter uncertainty. This whitepaper addresses the challenges of performing uncertainty quantification (UQ) for expensive computational models.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Deep Dive Topic: State of understanding of capsule modeling in context of high-foot

The work is summarized from several perspectives: 1D simulation perspective: Post-shot models agree with yield data to within a factor of ~2 at low implosion velocities, but the models diverge from the data as the velocity and convergence ratio increase. 2D simulation perspective: Integrated hohlraum-capsule post-shot models agree with primary data for most implosions, but overpredict yield and DSR for a few of the highest velocity implosions. High-resolution 3D post-shot capsule-only modeling captures much of the delivered performance of the one shot currently simulated.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Deep Dive Topic: Choosing between ablators

Recent data on implosions using identical hohlraums and very similar laser drives underscores the conundrum of making a clear choice of one ablator over another. Table I shows a comparison of Be and CH in a nominal length, gold, 575 μm-diameter, 1.6 mg/cc He gas-fill hohlraum while Table II shows a comparison of undoped HDC and CH in a +700 length, gold, 575 μm diameter, 1.6 mg/cc He gas fill hohlraum. As can be seen in the tables, the net integrated fusion performance of these ablators is the same to within error bars. In the case of the undoped HDC and CH ablators, the hot spot shapes of the implosions were nearly indistinguishable for the experiments listed in Table II.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Deep Dive Topic: Approach to ignition

The current high-foot and related implosions have adequate CR and implosion velocity to ignite, but require improved finesse particularly in, but not limited to, implosion symmetry. This is being pursued. The challenge of controlling drive symmetry is also motivating lower convergence ratio designs. These require higher velocity implosions and are also being pursued.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Final Report (2010-2015) for the Topical Collaboration on Quantitative Jet and Electromagnetic Tomography (JET) of Extreme Phases of Matter in Heavy-ion Collisions

During the 5-year funding period (2010-2015), the JET Collaboration carried out a comprehensive research program with coordinated efforts involving all PI members and external associated members according to the plan and milestones outlined in the approved JET proposal. We identified important issues in the study of parton energy loss and made significant progress toward NLO calculations; advanced event-by-event hydrodynamic simulations of bulk matter evolution; developed Monte Carlo tools that combine different parton energy loss approaches, hydrodynamic models and parton recombination model for jet hadronization; and carried out the first comprehensive phenomenological study to extract the jet transport parameter.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Controls on methane expulsion during melting of natural gas hydrate systems. Topic area 2

1.1. Project Goal The project goal is to predict, given characteristic climate-induced temperature change scenarios, the conditions under which gas will be expelled from existing accumulations of gas hydrate into the shallow ocean or directly to the atmosphere. When those conditions are met, the fraction of the gas accumulation that escapes and the rate of escape shall be quantified. The predictions shall be applicable in Arctic regions and in gas hydrate systems at the up dip limit of the stability zone on continental margins. The behavior shall be explored in response to two warming scenarios: longer term change due to sea level rise (e.g. 20 thousand years) and shorter term due to atmospheric warming by anthropogenic forcing (decadal time scale). 1.2. Project Objectives During the first budget period, the objectives are to review and categorize the stability state of existing well-studied hydrate reservoirs, develop conceptual and numerical models of the melting process, and to design and conduct laboratory experiments that dissociate methane hydrate in a model sediment column by systematically controlling the temperature profile along the column. The final objective of the first budget period shall be to validate the models against the experiments. In the second budget period, the objectives are to develop a model of gas flow into sediment in which hydrate is thermodynamically stable, and conduct laboratory experiments of this process to validate the model. The developed models shall be used to quantify the rate and volume of gas that escapes from dissociating hydrate accumulations. In addition, specific scaled simulations characteristic of Arctic regions and regions near the stability limit at continental margins shall be performed. 1.3. Project Background and Rationale The central hypothesis proposed is that hydrate melting (dissociation) due to climate change generates free gas that can, under certain conditions, propagate through the gas hydrate stability zone and vent at the seafloor. Gas venting through the regional hydrate stability zone is accomplished by alteration of the regional equilibrium conditions (creation of three phase conditions) by increased salinity and heat due to hydrate formation, due to gas fracturing, or a combination of both. This research will explore the controls on whether methane reaches the seafloor (or atmosphere) as the original hydrate deposit dissociates and what the magnitude of these fluxes are. This hypothesis has significant implications for the forcings and feedbacks associated with climate change. It is described below the observations and models that have led to formulating this hypothesis.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Topics in Theoretical Physics

This award supported a broadly based research effort in theoretical particle physics, including research aimed at uncovering the laws of nature at short (subatomic) and long (cosmological) distances. These theoretical developments apply to experiments in laboratories such as CERN, the facility that operates the Large Hadron Collider outside Geneva, as well as to cosmological investigations done using telescopes and satellites. The results reported here apply to physics beyond the so-called Standard Model of particle physics; physics of high energy collisions such as those observed at the Large Hadron Collider; theoretical and mathematical tools and frameworks for describing the laws of nature at short distances; cosmology and astrophysics; and analytic and computational methods to solve theories of short distance physics. Some specific research accomplishments include + Theories of the electroweak interactions, the forces that give rise to many forms of radioactive decay; + Physics of the recently discovered Higgs boson. + Models and phenomenology of dark matter, the mysterious component of the universe, that has so far been detected only by its gravitational effects. + High energy particles in astrophysics and cosmology. + Algorithmic research and Computational methods for physics of and beyond the Standard Model. + Theory and applications of relativity and its possible limitations. + Topological effects in field theory and cosmology. + Conformally invariant systems and AdS/CFT. This award also supported significant training of students and postdoctoral fellows to lead the research effort in particle theory for the coming decades. These students and fellows worked closely with other members of the group as well as theoretical and experimental colleagues throughout the physics community. Many of the research projects funded by this grant arose in response to recently obtained experimental results in the areas of particle physics and cosmology. We describe a few of these below. Relativity is founded on a symmetry property of nature called "Lorentz Invariance". Like all symmetry properties, it is essential to determine precisely how symmetric nature actually is; that is, do the laws of nature fully respect the symmetry or is there room for tiny symmetry violating effects? An important consequence of Lorentz invariance is the existence of a universal limiting velocity for all physical particles. Light travels at this limiting velocity so it is frequently referred to as simply "the speed of light", but relativity requires that ALL particles travel more slowly than this speed. Once the Higgs particle was discovered in 2012 a natural question was whether or not this particle's speed was consistent with relativity. Although the speed of the Higgs particle is not measurable directly, Cohen has shown that, if the maximal speed of the Higgs particle was not precisely the same as the speed of light, then the Higgs would have some unusual properties. In some cases the Higgs would be unstable to some unusual decay modes; in other cases the interactions of the Higgs with other particles would change the properties of these other particles in ways that could be observed in so-called cosmic rays, very energetic particles (such as photons, protons and other atomic nuclei) coming from space. Once these particles hit the upper atmosphere they produce a "shower" of particles that can be seen by ground-based instruments. If the Higgs has a maximal speed that differs even a tiny bit from the speed of light these showers would look quite different from what is observed. In this way Cohen was able to establish that the Higgs travels with a maximal speed that cannot differ from the speed of light by more than one part in a thousand-trillion. This is by far the most precisely determined property of the Higgs particle. Cohen and Schmaltz reviewed evidence from the Large Hadron Collider (LHC), a particle physics experiment operating at the CERN laboratory near Geneva, for a new particle sometimes called a W'. This evidence included certain unexpected by-products in collisions of protons at very high energy. While the evidence was not significant enough to claim a discovery, it was sufficiently intriguing that many particle theorists worked to construct explanations for this signal. Cohen and Schmaltz were able to determine that such explanations are highly constrained by previous experiments involving collisions of very energetic particles. Nevertheless they were able to construct a theory that adequately explains the LHC data and remain consistent with prior experiments. Their explanation predicts the existence of yet another new particle, called a Z', with a mass slightly greater than that of the W'. This additional particle, if it exists, should be seen as more data is collected from the LHC. Amusingly, there is one collision by-product that has already been seen by the CMS experiment at the LHC that supports the existence of this new particle; however, it is not unlikely that this single event is a so-called "background" event, that is a somewhat atypical by-product of a conventional Standard Model process. This theory for the anomalous LHC data will either be confirmed or excluded with further data-taking at the LHC. The ratio of the number of electrons produced in bottom quark decays over the number of muons produced has been measured at the LHC. This ratio is interesting because it can be predicted very precisely from a basic property of the Standard Model: lepton universality. If lepton universality is correct, the ratio of electrons to muons is predicted to be equal to 1. The first measurements of this ratio find a value different from 1 with a statistical significance of about 3 standard deviations. Schmaltz and collaborator proposed a new extension of the Standard Model which can explain the new data. In addition, Schmaltz and collaborators proposed several new measurements of ratios of decay rates which can confirm or rule out the surprising results from the earlier LHC data. The most recent and precise measurements of the cosmic microwave background from the Planck satellite, from a combination of measurements of the dark matter distribution in the universe, and from a measurement of the expansion rate of the universe today show some disagreement when interpreted in terms of the so-called LambdaCDM model. Schmaltz and collaborators proposed an alternative model to LambdaCDM in which the usual cold dark matter is replaced by a new ``dark sector". This sector consists of a cold dark matter particle which interacts with a newly postulated dark radiation component of the universe. The dark radiation can help explain the discrepancy in measurements of the expansion rate, and the dark matter interactions subtly modify the clumping of dark matter at large scales, thus potentially explaining both kinds of tensions in the data. In two publications Schmaltz described the new model and then performed a precision comparison of the predictions of the model with all currently available cosmological data. The results favor the new model at the level of three standard deviations with current data. Quantum Field Theory (QFT) is the language we use to describe quantum systems which are consistent with Einstein’s theory of Special Relativity. In particular, the requirement of Einstein’s theory that signals not travel faster than the speed of light constrains the types of interactions which particles can engage in. One consequence of relativity is that these interactions cannot preserve particle number. The stronger the interactions, the more severe the particle number violation in a given Relativistic QFT. When particle number violation is strong, it becomes very difficult to adequately parameterize the quantum wave function (which characterizes the state of a quantum system). For example, though we can formulate the QFT which describes the strong force as a set of interactions between quark and gluon particles, we have no clear idea how to express the proton state in terms of these quarks and gluons. This is because the proton, though a bound state of quarks and gluons, is not a state of a fixed number of particles due to strong interactions. Yet, understanding the proton state is very important in order to theoretically predict the reaction rates observed at the LHC in Geneva, which is a proton-proton collider. Katz has formulated a new approach to QFT, which among other things offers a way to adequately approximate the quantum wave function of a bound state at strong coupling. The approximation scheme is related to the fact that any sensible QFT (including that of the strong interactions) is at short distances approximately self-similar upon rescaling of space and time. It turns out that keeping track of the response upon this rescaling is important in efficiently parameterizing the state. Katz and collaborators have used this observation to approximate the state of the proton in toy versions of the strong force. In the late 60s Sheldon Glashow, Abdus Salam and Steven Weinberg (1979 Nobel Prize awardees) proposed a theory unifying weak and electromagnetic interaction which assumed the existence of new particles, the W and Z bosons. The W and Z bosons were eventually detected in high-energy collision in a particle accelerator at CERN, and the recent discovery of the Higgs meson at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC), always at CERN, completed the picture. However, deep theoretical considerations indicate that the theory by Glashow, Weinberg and Salam, often referred to as "the standard model" cannot be the whole story: the existence of new particles and new interactions at yet higher energies is widely anticipated. The experiments at the LHC are looking for these, while theorists, like Brower, Rebbi and collaborators, are investigating models for these new interactions. Working in a large national collaboration with access to the most powerful DOE computers Brower, Rebbi and colleagues have been using calculational techniques, similar to those successfully employed for many years to investigate the interactions among quarks in nucleons, to study theories that can describe the expected "beyond the standard model" (BSM) interactions. Their results, which include also a model for dark matter, have been published in several refereed papers in prestigious journals. Various ideas in topologically interesting field theories predict hypothetical objects such as fractional charges and Majorana excitations. However, such fascinating objects have not been seen in particle physics. Nevertheless, these objects demonstrate possible phenomena that quantum field theory can support. Pi used condensed matter physics as a laboratory to study possible realizations and observable effects of these objects predicted by quantum field theory. In recent times there has developed considerable interest among condensed matter field theorists in precisely the same geometrical and topological structures, which were first discovered in particle physics field theories. From particle physicists' point of view, this is an interesting development, since condensed matter provides an arena in which one can concretely realize particle physics ideas. Moreover, particle physicists can learn new ideas from condensed matter physics. Higgs phenomenon is precisely an important particle physics realization of condensed matter ideas. In contrast to the small distance characterizing condensed matter systems, field theory also describes large distance physics characterizing cosmology. Pi worked on various geometrical effects in the standard theory of cosmology, viz general relativity.

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Topics in Plasma Physics

During the period 1998-2013, research under the auspices of the Department of Energy was performed on RF waves in plasmas. This research was performed in close collaboration with Josef Preinhaelter, Jakub Urban, Vladimir Fuchs, Pavol Pavlo and Frantisek Zacek (Czech Academy of Sciences), Martin Valovic and Vladimir Shevchenko (Culham). This research is detailed and all 38 papers which were published by this team are cited.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Research Topics in Malware

We'll learn about the obstacles to fast and effective malware analysis and the current efforts by the community to overcome obstacles.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Predictive Engineering Tools for Injection-Molded Long-Carbon-Fiber Thermoplastic Composites. Topical Report

This project aimed to integrate, optimize, and validate the fiber orientation and length distribution models previously developed and implemented in the Autodesk® Simulation Moldflow® Insight (ASMI) software package for injection-molded long-carbon-fiber (LCF) thermoplastic composite structures. The project was organized into two phases. Phase 1 demonstrated the ability of the advanced ASMI package to predict fiber orientation and length distributions in LCF/polypropylene (PP) and LCF/polyamide-6, 6 (PA66) plaques within 15% of experimental results. Phase 2 validated the advanced ASMI package by predicting fiber orientation and length distributions within 15% of experimental results for a complex three-dimensional (3D) Toyota automotive part injection-molded from LCF/PP and LCF/PA66 materials. Work under Phase 2 also included estimate of weight savings and cost impacts for a vehicle system using ASMI and structural analyses of the complex part. The present report summarizes the completion of Phases 1 and 2 work activities and accomplishments achieved by the team comprising Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL); Purdue University (Purdue); Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University (Virginia Tech); Autodesk, Inc. (Autodesk); PlastiComp, Inc. (PlastiComp); Toyota Research Institute North America (Toyota); Magna Exteriors and Interiors Corp. (Magna); and University of Illinois. Figure 1 illustrates the technical approach adopted in this project that progressed from compounding LCF/PP and LCF/PA66 materials, to process model improvement and implementation, to molding and modeling LCF/PP and LCF/PA66 plaques. The lessons learned from the plaque study and the successful validation of improved process models for fiber orientation and length distributions for these plaques enabled the project to go to Phase 2 to mold, model, and optimize the 3D complex part.

42 ENGINEERING↗

2016-2017 Status Assessment and Update on the Wind Vision Roadmap: Findings from Topical Working Sessions, April 2016 - March 2017

IIn March 2015, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) released Wind Vision: A New Era for Wind Power in the United States (DOE 2015), which explores a scenario in which wind provides 10 percent of U.S. electricity in 2020, 20 percent in 2030, and 35 percent in 2050. The Wind Vision report also includes a roadmap of recommended actions aimed at pursuit of the vision and its underlying wind-deployment scenario. The roadmap was compiled by the Wind Vision project team, which included representatives from the industrial, electric-power, government-laboratory, academic, environmental-stewardship, regulatory, and permitting stakeholder groups. The roadmap describes high-level activities suitable for all sectors with a stake in wind power and energy development. It is intended to be a 'living document,' and DOE expects to engage the wind community from time to time to track progress.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Bridging Climate Change Resilience and Mitigation in the Electricity Sector Through Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency: Emerging Climate Change and Development Topics for Energy Sector Transformation

Reliable, safe, and secure electricity is essential for economic and social development and a necessary input for many sectors of the economy. However, electricity generation and associated processes make up a significant portion of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions contributing to climate change. Furthermore, electricity systems are vulnerable to climate change impacts - both short-term events and changes over the longer term. This vulnerability presents both near-term and chronic challenges in providing reliable, affordable, equitable, and sustainable energy services. Within this context, developing countries face a number of challenges in the energy sector, including the need to reliably meet growing electricity demand, lessen dependence on imported fuels, expand energy access, and improve stressed infrastructure for fuel supply and electricity transmission. Energy efficiency (EE) and renewable energy (RE) technical solutions described in this paper can bridge action across climate change mitigation and resilience through reducing GHG emissions and supporting electric power sector adaptation to increasing climate risk. Integrated planning approaches, also highlighted in this paper, play an integral role in bringing together mitigation and resilience action under broader frameworks. Through supporting EE and RE deployment and integrated planning approaches, unique to specific national and local circumstances, countries can design and implement policies, strategies, and sectoral plans that unite development priorities, climate change mitigation, and resilience.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Selected Topics in Microwave Instabilities and Linacs

The Shanghai Institute of Applied Physics (SINAP) is embarking on its first X-ray free-electron laser (FEL) project. It is a cascading high-gain harmonic generation FEL. Microwave instabilities driven by various effects, especially the space-charge force, will degrade the quality of the electron beam before entering into the undulator. However, inside the undulator, the occurrence of microbunching becomes an utmost important ingredient for the generation of coherent radiation. In short, controlled and uncontrolled microwave instabilities must be fully understood in such a project. These are the slides of a series of eight-hour lectures given at the SINAP in June of 2013, with the intention of a fully understanding of the microbunching phenomenon. The sections of wake field and impedance theory are added as an introduction for those who are not familiar with the subject.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Analysis of Rare Earth Elements in Geologic Samples using Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry; US DOE Topical Report - DOE/NETL-2016/1794

Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry (ICP-MS) is used to measure the concentrations of rare earth elements (REE) in certified standard reference materials including shale and coal. The instrument used in this study is a Perkin Elmer Nexion 300D ICP-MS. The goal of the study is to identify sample preparation and operating conditions that optimized recovery of each element of concern. Additionally, the precision and accuracy of the technique are summarized and the drawbacks and limitations of the method are outlined.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) Topic 2 Final Report: End-to-End Communication and Control System to Support Clean Energy Technologies

This document is the final report of a two-year development, test, and demonstration project, 'Cohesive Application of Standards- Based Connected Devices to Enable Clean Energy Technologies.' The project was part of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) Integrated Network Testbed for Energy Grid Research and Technology (INTEGRATE) initiative hosted at Energy Systems Integration Facility (ESIF). This project demonstrated techniques to control distribution grid events using the coordination of traditional distribution grid devices and high-penetration renewable resources and demand response. Using standard communication protocols and semantic standards, the project examined the use cases of high/low distribution voltage, requests for volt-ampere-reactive (VAR) power support, and transactive energy strategies using Volttron. Open source software, written by EPRI to control distributed energy resources (DER) and demand response (DR), was used by an advanced distribution management system (ADMS) to abstract the resources reporting to a collection of capabilities rather than needing to know specific resource types. This architecture allows for scaling both horizontally and vertically. Several new technologies were developed and tested. Messages from the ADMS based on the common information model (CIM) were developed to control the DER and DR management systems. The OpenADR standard was used to help manage grid events by turning loads off and on. Volttron technology was used to simulate a homeowner choosing the price at which to enter the demand response market. Finally, the ADMS used newly developed algorithms to coordinate these resources with a capacitor bank and voltage regulator to respond to grid events.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NREL Topic 1 Final Report: Cohesive Application of Standards-Based Connected Devices to Enable Clean Energy Technologies

This document is the final report of a two-year development, test, and demonstration project entitled 'Cohesive Application of Standards-Based Connected Devices to Enable Clean Energy Technologies.' The project was part of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL) Integrated Network Test-bed for Energy Grid Research and Technology (INTEGRATE) initiative. The Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) and a team of partners were selected by NREL to carry out a project to develop and test how smart, connected consumer devices can act to enable the use of more clean energy technologies on the electric power grid. The project team includes a set of leading companies that produce key products in relation to achieving this vision: thermostats, water heaters, pool pumps, solar inverters, electric vehicle supply equipment, and battery storage systems. A key requirement of the project was open access at the device level - a feature seen as foundational to achieving a future of widespread distributed generation and storage. The internal intelligence, standard functionality and communication interfaces utilized in this project result in the ability to integrate devices at any level, to work collectively at the level of the home/business, microgrid, community, distribution circuit or other. Collectively, the set of products serve as a platform on which a wide range of control strategies may be developed and deployed.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Frontier Observatory for Research in Geothermal Energy: Phase 1 Topical Report Fallon, NV

The Department of Energy (DOE) Frontier Observatory for Research in Geothermal Energy (FORGE) is to be a dedicated site where the subsurface scientific and engineering community can develop, test, and improve technologies and techniques for the creation of cost-effective and sustainable enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) in a controlled, ideal environment. The establishment of FORGE will facilitate development of an understanding of the key mechanisms controlling a successful EGS. Execution of FORGE is occurring in three phases with five distinct sub-phases (1, 2A, 2B, 2C, and 3). This report focuses on Phase 1 activities. During Phase 1, critical technical and logistical tasks necessary to demonstrate the viability of the Fallon FORGE Project site were completed and the commitment and capability of the Fallon FORGE team to execute FORGE was demonstrated. As part of Phase 1, the Fallon FORGE Team provided an assessment of available relevant data and integrated these geologic and geophysical data to develop a conceptual 3-D geologic model of the proposed test location. Additionally, the team prepared relevant operational plans for full FORGE implementation, provided relevant site data to the science and engineering community, engaged in outreach and communications with interested stakeholders, and performed a review of the environmental and permitting activities needed to allow FORGE to progress through Phase 3. The results of these activities are provided as Appendices to this report. The Fallon FORGE Team is diverse, with deep roots in geothermal science and engineering. The institutions and key personnel that comprise the Fallon FORGE Team provide a breadth of geoscience and geoengineering capabilities, a strong and productive history in geothermal research and applications, and the capability and experience to manage projects with the complexity anticipated for FORGE. Fallon FORGE Team members include the U.S. Navy, Ormat Nevada Inc., Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), the United States Geological Survey (USGS), the University of Nevada, Reno (UNR), GeothermEx/Schlumberger (GeothelinEx), and Itasca Consulting Group (Itasca). The site owners (through direct land ownership or via applicable permits)—the U.S. Navy and Ormat Nevada Inc.—are deeply committed to expanding the development of geothermal resources and are fully supportive of FORGE operations taking place on their lands.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗