Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Capacity Expansion Modeling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 271 records · Page 15

Opportunities for Renewable Energy, Storage, Vehicle Electrification, and Demand Response in Rajasthan's Power Sector

To support the government of Rajasthan and inform state policy makers, regulators, planners, and system operators on power system trends, NREL undertook a long-term capacity expansion planning study. We used NREL's flagship capacity expansion planning tool for the power sector called the Regional Energy Deployment System India (ReEDS-India) to understand the generation and transmission needs of Rajasthan through 2050. NREL's modeling framework includes co-optimized decisions about generation, energy storage, transmission, and reserves investments needed to meet future demand while maintaining reliable electricity supply. Scenario analysis was conducted to assess a range of potential future scenarios, providing insight for planning agencies, utilities, and local stakeholders about key trends and sources of uncertainty.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Property Measurements of NaCl-UCl 3 and LiF-NaF-KF Molten Salts Doped with Surrogate Fission Products

Knowing thermophysical and thermochemical property values of salts over the expected range of operating temperatures is essential to modeling and simulation efforts that support the commercialization of molten salt reactor (MSR) technologies. Salt properties being measured at Argonne include thermal transitions, phase behavior, heat capacity, density, surface tension, volumetric thermal expansion, thermal diffusivity, thermal conductivity, and viscosity. The properties of several salts of interest including NaCl-UCl 3 and LiF-NaF-KF (FLiNaK) have been measured at Argonne and reported previously. These property measurements are suitable for use in evaluating reactor performance during startup and the early operating life of the reactor. The physical and chemical behavior of the fuel salt is altered by the buildup of fission products and the resulting changes in heat transfer and other properties must be understood by reactor developers. This report summarizes melting behavior, heat capacity, and thermal diffusivity values that were measured for mixtures of FLiNaK and NaCl-UCl 3 salts that have been doped with surrogate fission products. Additional heat capacity measurements were also performed on a separate mixture of FLiNaK without dopants. Measured properties are suitable for incorporation into the Molten Salt Thermal Properties Database–Thermochemical (MSTDB–TC) and the Molten Salt Thermal Properties Database–Thermophysical (MSTDB–TP) to support the development of MSRs. Salts were prepared by doping eutectic mixtures of NaCl-UCl 3 and FLiNaK with surrogate fission products. These salts were prepared for use in salt spill experiments being performed at Argonne and were subsequently used for thermal property measurements. Thermal transitions and heat capacities were measured by using differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) and thermal diffusivity was measured by using laser flash analysis (LFA) at temperatures spanning the typical MSR operating range. The measured property values of the doped salts were compared to measured property values of salts without fission products to quantify the effects of the doped fission products.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Phase 1: Duke Energy Zero Emission Resource Integration Study (ZERIS); Phase 2: Carbon-Free Resource Integration Study for Duke Energy (Final Report)

Phase 1: This statement of work makes up Phase 1 of a larger effort. During this Phase 1 effort, NREL will work with Duke Energy to analyze the impacts of integrating significant amounts of new solar power into the Duke Energy power system under a variety of different penetrations scenarios, with a maximum of ten (10) full scenarios examined. The existing fleet, particularly the nuclear generation, will be considered in the quantitative assessments and discussions. Duke Energy is looking to quantify how much solar generation its system can handle. NREL will work with Duke Energy to quantify solar potential, identify likely integration challenges and possible opportunities for wind, storage, demand side resources and other technologies. Phase 2: This Statement of Work consists of a follow-up effort (Phase 2) to a recently completed Phase 1 modeling effort. During Phase 2, NREL will work closely with Duke Energy to analyze the impacts of integrating significant amounts of variable generation resources (wind and solar) and storage into Duke Energy's system in the Carolinas. The existing fleet, particularly nuclear generation, will be considered in the quantitative assessment and discussions. This Statement of Work also includes an extension to Phase II of the Carbon-Free Resource Integration Study for Duke Energy. In this extension, NREL will work closely with Duke Energy to extend the production cost analysis developed in Phase II to 2018 weather and load data for Duke Energy's territory. This extension leverages the modeling tools and datasets developed as part of Phase II. The analysis will compare results from Phase II (using 2012 weather and load) with 2018 results to assess system operations with increased penetration of renewables and storage. Simplifying assumptions will be made for modeling Duke Energy's neighbors in the production cost model.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Modeling Reversible Volume Change in Automotive Battery Cells with Porous Silicon Oxide-Graphite Composite Anodes

Automotive battery manufacturers are working to improve the individual cell and overall pack design by increasing durability, performance, and range, while reducing cost, and active material volume change is a key aspect that needs to be considered during this design process. Recently, silicon oxide-graphite composite anodes are being explored to increase total anode capacity while maintaining a tolerable amount of cell level reversible volume expansion due to the relatively lower reversible volume change of the silicon oxide compared to pure battery grade or metallurgical grade silicon. To predict the blended anode response and contribution to the overall cell volume change, we integrated the mechanical behavior of the individual active materials with the multi-species, multi-reaction model to predict the state-of-lithiation of the active materials in the cell at a given potential. The resulting simulations illustrate the tradeoff in volume change between the silicon oxide and the graphite during cell operation. This type of modeling approach will allow designers to virtually consider the impact of cell level and pack level design changes on overall system mechanical performance for automotive and grid storage applications, namely that relatively small addition of silicon containing materials can drive a significant increase in the volume change at the cell level, as demonstrated by the 5 wt% addition of silicon oxide accounting for half of the overall volume change in the cell.

Garrick, Taylor R. (ORCID:0000000322518129)↗

PR100 One-Year Progress Summary Report: Preliminary Modeling Results and High-Resolution Solar and Wind Data Sets

The Puerto Rico Grid Resilience and Transitions to 100% Renewable Energy Study (PR100) is a 2-year study by the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) Grid Deployment Office and six national laboratories to comprehensively analyze stakeholder-driven pathways to Puerto Rico's clean energy future. In Year 1 of the study, the PR100 team rigorously modeled and analyzed scenarios that meet Puerto Rico's renewable energy targets and achieve short-term recovery goals and long-term energy resilience. This report, which summarizes PR100 progress in Year 1, provides considerations that can inform potential funding and implementation decisions by key federal and local agencies and stakeholders. The summary report follows the publication in July 2022 of a PR100 Six-Month Progress Update (in English and Spanish), as well as public webinars in February 2022 to kick off the study and in July 2022 to present the 6-month update. A final written report and web-based visuals will be published in late 2023. All publications and public events associated with the study will be available in Spanish and English. This report is also available in Spanish https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy23osti/85144.pdf.

100%↗

Nonlinear magnons and exchange Hamiltonians of the delafossite proximate quantum spin liquid candidates KYbSe 2 and NaYbSe 2

Quantum spin liquids (QSLs) are theoretical states of matter with long-range entanglement and exotic quasiparticles. However, they generally elude quantitative theory, rendering their underlying phases mysterious and hampering efforts to identify experimental QSL states. Here we study triangular-lattice resonating-valence-bond QSL candidate materials KYbSe 2 and NaYbSe 2 . We measure the magnon modes in their 1/3 plateau phase, where quantitative theory is tractable, using inelastic neutron scattering and fit them using nonlinear spin wave theory. We also fit the KYbSe 2 heat capacity using high-temperature series expansion. Both KYbSe 2 fits yield the same magnetic Hamiltonian to within uncertainty, confirming previous estimates and showing the Heisenberg ratio J 2 / J 1 to be an accurate model for these materials. Most importantly, comparing KYbSe 2 and NaYbSe 2 shows that the smaller A -site Na + ion has a larger J 2 / J 1 ratio. However, hydrostatic pressure applied to KYbSe 2 increases the ordering temperature (a result consistent with density functional theory calculations), indicating that pressure decreases J 2 / J 1 . In conclusion, these results show how the periodic table and hydrostatic pressure can tune the A YbSe 2 materials in a controlled way.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

A modeling framework for designing and evaluating curbside traffic management policies at Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport

Emerging mobility technologies are changing the transportation system landscape. This is especially evident at airports, such as the Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport (DFW). Without careful analysis, these changes could lead to inefficient and costly airport operations. This paper presents a modeling framework that integrates travel mode encoding, demand projection, and microsimulation to enable airports to develop, simulate, and evaluate curbside traffic managements policies and measure their impact. Here, the framework is utilized to analyze several traffic scenarios and policies for DFW: a baseline scenario which represents DFW traffic pattern as observed in 2018 and projected to 2045, a transit network company (TNC) electrification policy, a TNC queuing policy, a policy that increased transit ridership, a bus-only policy which considers the use of only buses inside DFW, an autonomous vehicle (AV) policy which investigates the impact of autonomous vehicle (AV) adoption on airport operations, and an example COVID-19 scenario which models the impact of the COVID19 pandemic. The simulations’ results demonstrate that: increasing the DFW transit ridership postpones the need for airport curbside expansion the most; encouraging shared-mobility with the bus-only policy produces the most savings in curbside congestion delays; automation and electrification for all passenger vehicle trips to/from DFW generates the most saving in fuel consumption and emissions; and uncontrolled AV adoption incurs the highest increase in fuel consumption, delay, and emissions and could require immediate airport capacity extension. Without policy intervention or investment in additional infrastructure capacity, these results predict the current operations would face significant congestion on high demand days starting as early as 2028. While derived in close partnership with DFW, the methodology presented here can be generalized to any airport.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Opportunities for wave energy in bulk power system operations

Wave energy resources have high, yet largely untapped potential as candidate generation technology. In this paper, we perform a data-driven analysis to characterize the impact of wave energy integration on bulk-scale power systems and market operations. Through data-driven sensitivity studies centered on an optimization-based production cost modeling formulation, our work characterizes the inflection point beyond which wave integration starts impacting power system operations, considering present day transmission infrastructure. Furthermore, our analysis also considers the joint effects of wave energy integration and system-wide transmission expansion. Finally, potential resilience scenarios such as wildfire-driven transmission contingencies and heat wave events are investigated, whereby the contributions of grid-integrated wave energy in alleviating the effects of the resilience events are analyzed. As our demonstration test bed, we consider a reduced-order network topology for the U.S. Western Interconnection with wave energy generation integrated at carefully selected sites across the coastal areas of Washington, Oregon, and northern California. Our results indicate that over a representative year of operations, wave energy integration systematically reduces locational marginal prices (LMPs) of energy and price volatility, especially during periods of high wave resource availability (winter months for the U.S. west coast). Average, maximum, and minimum of hourly LMPs over a typical year of operation was reduced by 2.95, 51.28, and 1.13 $\$$/MWh respectively (over a baseline scenario with no wave energy integration), when the selected network model had a total of 5000 MW wave power installed capacity during the representative year of study. The effects of wave energy integration can remain localized with existing transmission infrastructure (identified to be most pronounced in the Pacific Northwest region in the example we studied). However, with concurrent transmission expansion, the impacts of wave energy integration are likely to have a higher geographical spread. Our results also indicate that wave energy may be able to assist power system operations during resilience events such as major transmission contingencies and heat wave events, although such benefits might be dependent on factors such as proximity of affected area to wave resources, availability of adequate resource potential and adequate transmission capacity.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

The role of moisture in MgCl 2 salt: A multiscale approach to TES performance

This study presents a comprehensive multiscale analysis to evaluate the influence of moisture on the thermal performance of thermal energy storage systems using magnesium chloride (MgCl 2 ) as the phase-changing material. The system uses graphite foam with 90% relative density to enhance thermal conductivity. The analysis includes thermal conductivity calculations and specific heat capacity for different hydrate phases of MgCl 2 : Anhydrous, Mono, Di, Tetra, and Hexa. These properties were evaluated for the first time using the phonon density of states from Density Functional Theory simulations. Results showed that thermal conductivity decreased, while specific heat capacity increased by a factor of two as the phase changed from anhydrous to hexahydrate. Meso-scale models were created to account for the anisotropy of graphite foam and property variations of the MgCl 2 hydrate phases. Asymptotic Expansion homogenization simulations determined the anisotropic thermal conductivity for all phases. This unique methodology improved simulation accuracy, which matched experimental data for anhydrous MgCl 2 . A parametric study examined various operating conditions and their effect on TES performance. It revealed that higher charging temperatures did not enhance exergy efficiency, but increased discharge mass flow rates improved it due to better heat transfer. Thermal performance evaluated by the exergy efficiency remained consistent across hydrate systems under the tested conditions. Furthermore, the study suggests that this uniformity is linked to missing key data, particularly latent heat and melting point for different hydrates. Overall, it highlights the importance of multiscale effects and accurate material properties in designing and optimizing TES systems.

Molten salt degradation↗

Boron coordination change in barium borate melts and glasses and its contribution to configurational heat capacity, entropy, and fragility

High-energy x-ray diffraction from molten and glassy BaB 2 O 4 and BaB 4 O 7 has been performed using aerodynamic levitation and laser heating over a wide range of temperatures. Remarkably, even in the presence of a heavy metal modifier dominating x-ray scattering, it was possible to extract accurate values for the tetrahedral, sp 3 , boron fraction, N 4 , which declines with increasing temperature, using bond valence-based mapping from the measured mean B–O bond lengths while accounting for vibrational thermal expansion. These are used within a boron-coordination-change model to extract enthalpies, ΔH, and entropies, ΔS, of isomerization between sp 2 and sp 3 boron. The results for BaB 4 O 7 , ΔH = 22(3) kJ mol -1 boron, ΔS = 19(2) J mol -1 boron K -1 , agree quantitatively with those found previously for Na 2 B 4 O 7 . Analytical expressions for N 4 (J, T) and associated configurational heat capacity, $C_{P}^{conf}$(J, T), and entropy, S conf (J, T), contributions are extended to cover a wide composition range 0 ≤ J = BaO/B 2 O 3 ≤ 3 using a model for ΔH(J) and ΔS(J) derived empirically for lithium borates. Maxima in the $C_{P}^{conf}$(J, T g ) and fragility index contributions are thereby predicted for J ≲ 1, higher than the maximum observed and predicted in N 4 (J, T g ) at J ≃ 0.6. We discuss the utility of the boron-coordination-change isomerization model in the context of borate liquids containing other modifiers and the prospect of neutron diffraction to aid in empirical determinations of modifier-dependent effects, illustrated by new neutron diffraction data on Ba 11 B 4 O 7 glass, its well-known α-polymorph, and lesser-known δ-phase.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

BaCu 4/3 Si 2/3 P 2 and BaCu 2–( x + y ) Zn x Si y P 2 : Expanding the Semiconducting Landscape in the ThCr 2 Si 2 -Type Family

ThCr 2 Si 2 -type layered materials are a large family of compounds with applications ranging from thermoelectricity to magnetism, with the vast majority of the members exhibiting metallic behavior. Here, in this study, we synthesized a new group of materials with Cu-Si and Cu-Zn-Si square nets with the general formula BaCu 1.33 Si 0.67 P 2 and BaCu 2–(x+y) Zn x Si y P 2 (0 ≤ x ≤ 0.9; 0.3 ≤ y ≤ 0.7). Several synthesized compounds are charge-balanced semiconductors, which are rare in the ThCr 2 Si 2 family. All the reported compounds crystallize in the ThCr 2 Si 2 -type tetragonal I4/mmm space group, with Cu/Zn/Si jointly occupying the same 4d crystallographic site. In the Zn-free composition, BaCu 1.33 Si 0.67 P 2 , Ba, and P each occupy a single crystallographic site. The introduction of Zn results in the expansion of the unit cell and splitting the Ba atomic sites along the [001] direction. Such structural displacement of the Ba atoms was confirmed by the heat capacity measurements. Band structure and density-of-states calculations on ordered hypothetical structural models reveal either a small bandgap (∼0.2 eV) or semimetallic band structures. The compounds reported here exhibit high Seebeck coefficients and ultralow thermal conductivity, making them promising candidates for the development of thermoelectric materials.

crystal structure↗

ATEAM4Py: An Efficient and Scalable Python-Based Model for Charging Demand

This report details the development and implementation of ATEAM4Py, a Python-based simulation model that projects demand for battery electric vehicle (BEV) charging based on adoption trends and consumer behavior. With Exelon’s support, Argonne National Laboratory converted the original Java-based Agent-based Transportation Energy Analysis Model (ATEAM) into Python, resulting in a faster and more efficient tool for forecasting the timing, location, and scale of charging demand growth. ATEAM4Py tackles key challenges in simulation efficiency and runtime, supporting the strategic development of cost-effective grid capacity expansion strategies and ensuring reliable service for stakeholders.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

The impact of market design and clean energy incentives on strategic generation investments and resource adequacy in low-carbon electricity markets

Well-designed electricity markets play a crucial role in maintaining reliable electric power systems, which are critical in modern society. Here, this study examines the impact of different electricity market designs and clean energy incentive schemes on supporting renewable energy integration and achieving clean energy goals. To this end, we utilize a game-theoretical generation expansion planning model where generation companies make investment and retirement decisions to maximize their expected profit. The model is structured as an equilibrium problem with equilibrium constraints (EPEC) and solved using a diagonalization approach combined with progressive hedging. We analyze three types of electricity market designs: an energy-only market, a capacity market, and a clean energy market, and consider a wide range of market parameters resulting in 14 total scenarios. Wind and solar capacity comprise the majority of new investments in all considered scenarios, but the resultant system planning reserve margin (PRM) can differ significantly depending on market parameters. We also find that profit-driven investments lead to lower PRMs than a traditional system cost minimization approach. These individual scenario results further demonstrate how different market designs and clean energy incentive schemes may influence investor decision-making and impact resource adequacy throughout the clean energy transition.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Solar and Wind Forecast Error Reserve Sharing in a Multi-Utility Region

As electricity systems transition to higher levels of solar and wind generation, electric system operators will likely need to hold additional reserves to manage the forecast error associated with these resources. Because wind and solar forecast errors tend to be poorly correlated across space, system operators can reduce their reserve requirements by sharing reserves. This paper examines the value of forecast error reserve sharing among balancing areas in the Southeast United States. It finds that forecast error reserve requirements increase linearly with growth in solar and wind generation capacity but that reserve sharing can significantly reduce physical (MW) reserve requirements (from 25%-26% to 18%-19% of average load in high solar scenarios). It finds that the value of forecast error reserve sharing declines with higher levels of solar and wind generation, due to lower wholesale energy and reserve prices. Even with declines in wholesale prices, forecast error reserve sharing can still provide substantial value (as much as $\$$400 million per year in a high solar scenario), though with higher levels of solar, wind, and electricity storage, this value is increasingly tied to avoiding scarcity prices. The results suggest the importance of coordinated capacity expansion planning for forecast error reserve sharing.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Data Center Market Report

The data center market is poised to explode in the coming decade due to undeniable drivers such as continued adoption of generative AI, increased data storage needs, and enterprise integration of AI in numerous industries [1] [2] [3]. Scalable power and increased computational capacity are at the forefront of considerations for hyperscalers, the major cloud service providers in this space. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory is uniquely poised to help with informed decision making for data center market leaders during this phase of explosive expansion. National grid modeling expertise and cutting edge innovations in computer cooling systems place LLNL in an enviable position for creating economic impact in the data center industry by leveraging its expertise in these areas which can help the data center market keep up with growing demand.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Thermophysical properties of the Ghareb formation relevant for nuclear waste disposal

The Ghareb formation, a shallowly buried porous chalk in Israel, is currently a candidate for nuclear waste disposal. The potential repository is somewhat unique for its host rock and emplacement in shallow (500 m) engineered large diameter boreholes. Herein, the thermal properties of the Ghareb are determined to support design and performance assessment; the relevant properties measured are thermal conductivity, specific heat capacity, thermal diffusivity, and thermal expansion coefficient along with their relationship with varying temperature. For the temperature range of 40 to 275 °C, the thermal conductivity ranges from 0.30 to 1.10 W/m·K, the thermal diffusivity ranges from 0.20 to 0.72 mm 2 /s, and volumetric heat capacity ranges from 0.86 to 2.00 MJ/m 3 ·K. Thermal strain measurements were used to estimate the linear thermal expansion coefficient to be 6·10 –4 –9·10 –2 °C -1 from 40 to 300 °C. These measured properties were used in a thermomechanical model to estimate near-field stresses an hour and 10 years after waste emplacement; the borehole was found to be stable. Thermal loading after 10 years was predicted to elevate local pore pressures by 1–1.5 MPa. The laboratory measurements coupled with analyses are the first attempts at performance assessment characterization for this first of its kind potential repository setting with this chosen host rock.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗